Iraq - the end is nigh

Why is it that we Americans treat our allies with such contempt? One of the reasons the "special relationship" with England is so potent is because they simply know diplomacy so much better than we do - they've been at it for a thousand years. The British told us that Iraq was an intractable problem well before the invasion, but the Bushites knew best. Now the British papers are carrying stories about the inevitability of Iraq's breakup. When will we hear about that from our own government. Here's a story in today's Independent newspaper:

"The Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, meets Tony Blair in London today as violence in Iraq reaches a new crescendo and senior Iraqi officials say the break up of the country is inevitable. A car bomb in a market in the Shia stronghold of Sadr City in Baghdad yesterday killed 34 people and wounded a further 60 and was followed by a second bomb in the same area two hours later that left a further eight dead. Another car bomb outside a court house in Kirkuk killed a further 20 and injured 70 people.

"Iraq as a political project is finished," a senior government official was quoted as saying, adding: "The parties have moved to plan B." He said that the Shia, Sunni and Kurdish parties were now looking at ways to divide Iraq between them and to decide the future of Baghdad, where there is a mixed population. "There is serious talk of Baghdad being divided into [Shia] east and [Sunni] west," he said.

Hoshyar Zebari, the Iraqi Foreign Minister, told The Independent in an interview, before joining Mr Maliki to fly to London and then Washington, that in theory the government should be able to solve the crisis because Shia, Kurd and Sunni were elected members of it. But he painted a picture of a deeply divided administration in which senior Sunni members praised anti-government insurgents as 'the heroic resistance'. "

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/mid ... 193108.ece

[Aunty]

Iraq won't be allowed to 'break up' into independent states. Turkey will never permit an independent Kurdistan on it's southern border and will simply move to occupy it. It is after all the old colonial power. Splitting Iraq up will simply result in a reply of the kind of events that lead to WWI in Europe, this time played out in the Middle East as all sorts of different countries with ethnic, religious and geopolitical rivalries and ambitions fight it out.

The strange thing about war is how it always results in someone coming out of it far stronger than they ever were before, as did the US and the USSR after WWII, and it's these countries that go on to dominate the geopolitical landscape for years to come. Who's to say who will be left the top dog following a full out regional war in the Middle East, and what mpact this might have on the world at large. Iran? China? Israel? Turkey? Saudi Arabia? India? Russia? the US? Winning the war can also lead to a crushing defeat. Just look at what happened to The British Empire and France due to WWII. Maybe the same will happen to the US or Israel?

No the best way to avoid Pandora is to keep her in her box. I can see some merit in splitting up Iraq into separate largely autonomous states much like the states of the US, and grouped together in a federal structure for certain functions of government e.g., foreign affairs, defence, nationhood.

Christ!!!! Bang goes my share option portfolio. And all my pocket money for the next decade. Please oh great Fatwa of death where are you when we need you? When is the next US erection any-way?