Will Ireland trip up Brexit?

[RonanTheBarbarian]

the irish had better beware...a lot of their economic success depends on access to the UK market...

Well, I dont disagree, but not sure what you mean by that the Irish government “had better beware”…

As regards trade generally, in one respect that is out of the hands of the Irish government, as Ireland (if one excludes a for a moment putative “special deal” for the Northern Ireland border) will share the same deal that the UK agrees with the rest of the EU27, which will be a good as bad as France and Germany want it, basically. Ireland will have to set up with this, although they will be pressing for as free a deal as possible.

In fact, were it not for the concerns about the Northern Irish border, I would say Varadkar’s ministers would be the greatest allies for the UK on the EU side. Therefore, it is not in Ireland’s interest to majorly delay phase 2 of the talks.

However, if the border is not sorted in preliminary phase, it will fall down, and maybe off, the agenda.

Therefore Ireland must maximize its leverage now, The EU 27 are supportive of Ireland demands regarding the North, but once they get caught up in trade deal negotiations, the aim of a frictionless (which can only mean a customs-less) border might be relegated.

[RonanTheBarbarian]

To expand a bit on the above, the big problem for Ireland is not so much the Tory government or the EU negotiators as much as it is the DUP.

The DUP’s red line is no internal UK customs regime (even if it’s a win-win)

If the Tories were not in coalition with the DUP I think they would be quite open to having the customs border in the Irish Sea, but that’s a bit unlikely with May dependent on the DUP in Westminster, unless she is willing to risk her government collapsing as the DUP bolt.

That’s part of the reason the Irish government is being so intransient at the moment in my view, as they know they have to counter the influence of the DUP on the British government.