Will Ireland trip up Brexit?

[RonanTheBarbarian]

It looks like the Brexit might be entering a fateful few weeks

After over a year of waiting to see if Theresa May's government had anything practical to offer on the Irish border, it looks like Ireland's gay Taoiseach (Prime Minister) finally lost patience.

According to today's Guardian, he is threatening to block progress unless he gets some guarantees:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ey-and-ireland


Looks like Irish leader is dropping his big Celtic fist on the table:


"...Varadkar’s warning was the most blunt, though the EU is likely to take the lead from Ireland when it assesses whether enough genuine progress has been made on the issue of the border with Northern Ireland, one of the three key topics which must be agreed before talks progress to trade.

“We’ve been given assurances that there will be no hard border in Ireland, that there won’t be any physical infrastructure, that we won’t go back to the borders of the past,” Varadkar said before his meeting with May. “We want that written down in practical terms in the conclusions of phase one....”


Shows that the Irish government must have little faith in the possibility of May and her government being able to live up to her promises if they are insisting on written guarantees. And he is threatening to block moving on to phase two if he doesnt get his way. He must feel pretty confident about having the support of Barnier, Tusk and co if he feels able to issue threats like that.


And he dropped one big burn on the Brexiteers in general:

..."Earlier at the summit, Varadkar was scathing about UK politicians who had backed Brexit: “It’s 18 months since the referendum. It’s 10 years since people who wanted a referendum started agitating for one. Sometimes it doesn’t seem like they have thought all this through....”

Ooh, that must have hurt! No better guy than a gayer dish the insults!

[joe552]

Ronan, I'm somewhat of a political geek/nerd (what's the difference?) but I've really lost interest in the Breit saga. Nothing seems to happen, and very slowly.]

Right now I'm more concerned that my cigarette lighter has stopped working, and my kitchen floor really needs a good cleaning,

[FarangRuMak]

It’s a complicated case.
Britain taking a hard Brexit option or being left with no other option can quite simply put immigration and custom posts on their side of the border with the ROI.
The EU in response will direct the Irish Republic to do the same because this border also doubles as one of only 2 EU/British borders. (The other one is the Spanish/Gibralter border.
But Ireland is a special case in that there has been free movement of people and trade between it and Britain before the EU ever existed. Being a member of the EU club will not compensate for the loss of the pre-existing mutually beneficial arrangement.
There’s also the fact that Northern Ireland voted against Brexit.
Then there’s the issue of the still tenous peace agreement.
I don’t know if a modern version of Solomon exists to sort out this case.
The original needed only to cut the baby in two halves.
This is the problem of a thousand cuts.

[latintopxxx]

the irish had better beware...a lot of their economic success depends on access to the UK market...

[FarangRuMak]

Correct and everyone in Ireland knows it but the issue is bigger than any single case of impaction and anyway most of it is out of their control
I believe that Britain walking away from the world’s largest trading block and Mr Trump walking away from a similar trading block in Asia are two major mistakes.
If idiot Trump is impeached the U S A will hopefully rejoin the Asia Pacific group if only to put some brakes on China’s regional bullying.

[scottish-guy]

the irish had better beware...a lot of their economic success depends on access to the UK market...

Irish exports to the UK (at c.12% of total Irish exports) represent less than 1/2 of their exports to USA and 1/3 of those to the rest of the EU.

So, a significant part of the Irish economy but not, I'd suggest, decisive. As a mathematical exercise, if Ireland could increase her exports to the other 26 EU countries by less than 0.5% each, the total value of UK exports are thus replaced.

Brexiteers really need to wake up to the Daily Mail/Daily Express propaganda that the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU, and the other lie that the UK holds all the cards in this negotiation.

The reality is that the EU and the UK need each other and that the UK holds very few of the cards - as is becoming increasingly obvious as the EU continues to politely turn a deaf ear to British "demands"

[latintopxxx]

..wake up scotty...or has all the scat play deasdened more than your sense of smell...the eu...is nazi germany in disguise...

[scottish-guy]

Yes I heard a "historian" expound the view that the EU is a Nazi conspiracy on the TV just last night.

He then went on to say that Hitler had escaped from Germany in 1945 and spent years living in a underground complex under the ice in Antarctica.


Both theories are equally plausible

[joe552]

I think the UK will be the loser in this, A 2nd referendum anyone?

[RonanTheBarbarian]

the irish had better beware...a lot of their economic success depends on access to the UK market...

Well, I dont disagree, but not sure what you mean by that the Irish government “had better beware”…

As regards trade generally, in one respect that is out of the hands of the Irish government, as Ireland (if one excludes a for a moment putative “special deal” for the Northern Ireland border) will share the same deal that the UK agrees with the rest of the EU27, which will be a good as bad as France and Germany want it, basically. Ireland will have to set up with this, although they will be pressing for as free a deal as possible.

In fact, were it not for the concerns about the Northern Irish border, I would say Varadkar’s ministers would be the greatest allies for the UK on the EU side. Therefore, it is not in Ireland’s interest to majorly delay phase 2 of the talks.

However, if the border is not sorted in preliminary phase, it will fall down, and maybe off, the agenda.

Therefore Ireland must maximize its leverage now, The EU 27 are supportive of Ireland demands regarding the North, but once they get caught up in trade deal negotiations, the aim of a frictionless (which can only mean a customs-less) border might be relegated.