Hard to believe that this year marks a 20th anniversary many would prefer to forget.
No, not the return of Hong Kong to China on July 1st. It was instead the start of what most felt would end in Armageddon - the Asian Economic crisis. It all began here in Thailand on July 2nd. Over many, many months the country's governing elite had been vainly attempting to maintain the unsustainable exchange rate of US$1 = Bt. 25. As they were spending all the country's foreign exchange reserves, the international speculators who had been hovering vulture-like finally struck - twice. The second time – bingo! The baht was let loose and started its long downward spiral.
Not that other countries were blameless. The region was awash in crony capitalism and many of their temples to greed came crumbling down, too. All regional currencies were devalued. Only China and Hong Kong avoided the exchange carnage, the latter only because the HK$ was and remains tied to the US$.
How many of us had the good fortune to visit Thailand in the months following the crash as the currency plummeted? After its initial fall of 10%, the Baht just would not stop. It reached its all time low of 55.50 in January 1998. So shell-shocked was the retail trade that few raised prices on old stock. Any pianists amongst us could have picked up a full Steinway concert grand piano from Robinsons in Siam Square at effectively half price and saved at least $80,000!!!
If you had spare cash, you could put it on deposit overseas at an interest rate of 21%. By early 1999 it had dropped to 16% but still far more than you could get for other currencies - and the Baht was by then appreciating significantly.
I was thinking about all this when reading a post made by Jellybean on the Matt's Groceries thread this morning -
One abiding legacy of the Thailand crash was the number of unfinished construction sites around Bangkok. They seemed to be everywhere and remained workless for years. Only now have all more or less disappeared. The last, as far as I remember, was the hole in the ground just down from the Grand Hyatt Hotel on Rajadamri. The new building looks nearly complete.Originally Posted by Jellybean
And with construction moving apace all over the city, one does wonder if the comments Jellybean overheard are anywhere near accurate (if, of course, he did actually hear them)! For upper Suriwong must become a target for developers sooner rather than later. Redevelopment of the Tarntawan site must therefore be more than a possibility. The location is perfect and accessibility is all but perfect. The problem is that, if stories about the difficulties Le Meridien has in making money are anywhere near true, it may not yet be a great location for yet another 5-star hotel. But a 5-star office building?
The one wonder about upper Suriwong is the old Robinson’s Building on the corner of Rama 4. That must be an even more desirable site but has remained an empty shell for years. So perhaps conversion of the Tarntawan to a hotel or upscale offices may well be as Jellybean hinted – just “a Chinese whisper” – and the hotel will continue to be a subject on this Board until many of us have departed for that great gogo bar in the sky! Let us just pray, though, that its mamasan is not the former owner of this Board! Yikes!
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