Re: Russian Underwear Protest!
From todays FT.
Quote:
Two years ago, a Russian friend told me that he thought that Alexei Navalny posed a serious danger to Vladimir Putin. I was sceptical. Russia had weathered the international condemnation and economic sanctions imposed after its annexation of Crimea in 2014. The country had just staged a successful World Cup. President Putin seemed well entrenched in the Kremlin.
But my friend was right. Through his bravery, determination and investigative flair, Mr Navalny has galvanised the Russian opposition. He has survived an attempt to kill him and returned to Russia to face arrest, imprisonment and, possibly, death. His example inspired mass protests across the country over the weekend. Whether Mr Navalny ultimately succeeds or fails, he now represents the most dangerous threat that Mr Putin has faced in the two decades since he took power.
https://on.ft.com/3qSYC2Y
Re: Russian Underwear Protest!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Brad the Impala
Alexei Navalny posed a serious danger to Vladimir Putin. I was sceptical
Bullshit from propaganda. Navalny was serious danger about 2011-2013. But at 2013 he made many mistakes: fighting within opposition for leadership, union with ultra-right and nationalists. In 2013 at time of election on the Moscow mayor seat he was on peak. Now he is nobody from nowhere - mostly like a sect for high school students and people who like conspiracy.
In 2014 he told what annexation of Crimea is right and correct movement and in one moment lost about 50% of his supporters.
At Saturday you already saw: about 100 000 protesters against Putin and about 300 protesters for to support Navalny.
Remember: now one only real competitor from opposition to Putin exists - Khodorkovsky. Unfortunately for West Khodorkovsky is rich, independent and educated. Most important - he is independent. That why West tries to play with Navalny card - Navalny depends on grants and is already tamed by West.
Re: Russian Underwear Protest!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Moses
Bullshit from propaganda. ....... At Saturday you already saw: about 100 000 protesters against Putin and about 300 protesters for to support Navalny.
Surely even you would accept Moses that at least some of those 100,000 who protest against Putin may perhaps also support Navalny. It seems odd that out of 100,000 people you're suggesting a mere 300 support him.
And again would you not agree that just because they're not waving banners with Navalny's name on them doesn't mean they are not sympathetic with his cause and wish to protest their feelings as to his treatment otherwise why did the people start protesting on his arrest and not weeks / months before ( and yes I know there were restrictions on meetings before that re Covid etc but I doubt that would stop 100,000 people if that felt strongly enough about something perhaps no ?)
But to instantly dismiss 100,000 people on the streets as them just out to protest Putin and nothing else, when they're out immediately after Navalny's arrest seems a little off too. I'm sure you're right that their main protest IS about Putin but Navalny's arrest does "appear" to have been a catalyst in them deciding to protest - dont you think ??
3 Attachment(s)
Re: Russian Underwear Protest!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Nirish guy
Surely even you would accept Moses that at least some of those 100,000 who protest against Putin may perhaps also support Navalny. It seems odd that out of 100,000 people you're suggesting a mere 300 support him.
And again would you not agree that just because they're not waving banners with Navalny's name on them doesn't mean they are not sympathetic with his cause and wish to protest their feelings as to his treatment otherwise why did the people start protesting on his arrest and not weeks / months before ( and yes I know there were restrictions on meetings before that re Covid etc but I doubt that would stop 100,000 people if that felt strongly enough about something perhaps no ?)
But to instantly dismiss 100,000 people on the streets as them just out to protest Putin and nothing else, when they're out immediately after Navalny's arrest seems a little off too. I'm sure you're right that their main protest IS about Putin but Navalny's arrest does "appear" to have been a catalyst in them deciding to protest - dont you think ??
I already told: "immediately" after Navalny arrest is just because they lifted ban for public gathering in most cities from Jan 22. Jan 23 was first Saturday (typical day for protests) after Jan 22.
Pity you don't understand Russian. Just open youtube and find somebody who will translate to you. Almost all interviews started from "I'm here not for Navalny but against Putin". To support Navalny is "bad taste" here: he cooperates with right wing and nationalists and this is like a stigma here - he will never have majority. Russia lost 40 mln in IIWW.
Navalny on "Russian march". Behind him in Russian "Russia is owned by Russians" and "Russian March". Look at his right hand. He will never have support of general public after it.
Attachment 10690
It is 2014 or 2013... Navalny marching with nationalists (yellow-white-black). No Corona yet here, but many hiding their faces behind of masks
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Wanna be sure what yellow-white-black is bad? Look here:
Attachment 10692
Re: Russian Underwear Protest!
OK Moses, I'll take your word for that and assume you are correct.
So, assuming then that the people WERENT there as a sign of support for Navalny but to protest against Putin what is your view about that ?
So will the protests concern Putin in any way and / or perhaps threaten his position or will he simply ignore this ( small by Russian standards) group of protestors and simply carry on with "business as usual" or instead of 100,000 protestors would it take 1000000 protestors or is the number actually irrelevant and no matter HOW many people protest will it remain "business as usual" there just with Putin being secure in his position - no matter what ?
Re: Russian Underwear Protest!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Nirish guy
OK Moses, I'll take your word for that and assume you are correct.
So, assuming then that the people WERENT there as a sign of support for Navalny but to protest against Putin what is your view about that ?
So will the protests concern Putin in any way and / or perhaps threaten his position or will he simply ignore this ( small by Russian standards) group of protestors and simply carry on with "business as usual" or instead of 100,000 protestors would it take 1000000 protestors or is the number actually irrelevant and no matter HOW many people protest will it remain "business as usual" there just with Putin being secure in his position - no matter what ?
Despite of stereotype "no democracy in Russia" here it exists, but not that directly as you are adapted to see. It has own specifics. Putin wants to be popular - it is for his safety and he knows it.
When at past he made personal income of every Russian growing (5-10 times, depends on region), he was very popular: at some moments he had support of 80%+ population. When oil made export less profitable and income went down his popularity faded, but it is still above 50% (around 60% now). Virus gave many problems and made some frustrations. That why so many fast steps and PR about vaccine.
Putin controls his popularity via regional governors - they have KPIs, whithin its are 2 points - level of trust in governor in region and level of trust to Putin in region. These who had both KPI below 50% will be changed - by law president may send to resignation any governor and to declare new elections. Putin uses this tool quite widely: even if all governors will have both KPI above 50%, last 5 of them in ranking from 89 will be dismissed by results of each year. For to measure happiness and approval level usually Kremlin uses auditors from TOP-4, most often PwC, sometimes Gallup.
So currently Kremlin will order measurement, then will talk and maybe dismiss some governors where protests are more strong than average and where happiness is lower than average.
Re: Russian Underwear Protest!
I actually quite like the idea of running a Country based on KPI's like that - hell if we allowed our politicians here to either stay or go according to their KPI's there wouldn't be many of them left in their jobs thats for sure !
Re: Russian Underwear Protest!
Thanks Moses, your responses on Navalny are interesting as a balance to the reporting in the part of the media that I do(mostly) trust!
Re: Russian Underwear Protest!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Brad the Impala
Thanks Moses, your responses on Navalny are interesting as a balance to the reporting in the part of the media that I do(mostly) trust!
There's a lengthy measured opinion piece in this week's Spectator that broadly agrees with Moses. It ends:
"Seen solely from the point of view of electoral arithmetic, the smart strategy for the Kremlin would be to let Navalny walk free and continue its policy of officially pretending he doesn’t exist. But the electorate is not the constituency that keeps Putin in power — it’s the FSB. And the hard men of the Lubyanka have made it amply clear that they are not in a forgiving mood."
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...e-next-chapter
Re: Russian Underwear Protest!
Quote:
Originally Posted by
StevieWonders
The main mistake in article: United Russia isn't Putin's party. It is leading party (at least in current electoral cycle), but it isn't president's party - president here can't be member of any party. United Russia supports Putin, but all other parliament parties including opposition also supports him more or less - he is popular here. Parties are fighting each other in parliament for laws in accordance with their programs, but all supports most of Putin's decrees: for to became not order but law they should be voted in parliament in both chambers, and at past 10 years here were only 2 or 3 cases when decree was declined by parliament.
Despite media at West write about his dictatorship, Putin has approval and support of majority - in parties and in population.