It's quite obvious Putin had aspirations outside of Ukraine, hence this whole discussion is stupid.
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It's quite obvious Putin had aspirations outside of Ukraine, hence this whole discussion is stupid.
As usual, you change the ground on which you respond to comments. Your original posting referred to the countries of Poland and Romania as being poor, while your present response refers to the citizens of those countries and the cost of certain goods to them.
Your indicators of relative wealth are cherry-picking the data, i.e., you focus on gas, which Russia produces but Poland, for example, does not. How much have food prices risen in Russia compared with those elsewhere (see, e.g., https://www.reuters.com/business/ret...-2022-10-05/)?
Why don't you mention, e.g., manufactured goods prices, particularly those using imported components - see "Prices for car parts in Russia have gone up by an average of 31% since Moscow invaded Ukraine, the Kommersant business daily reported Friday" (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...rsant-a77663)?
Reports in August suggested that "Russia faces ‘economic oblivion’ despite claims of short-term resilience, economists say" (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/russ...esilience.html). The article states "However, many economists see long-lasting costs to the Russian economy from the exit of foreign firms, the loss of its long-term oil and gas markets, and its diminished access to critical imports of technology and inputs." It also refers to "falling living standards in recent months have weighed on consumer demand, hitting retail sales and leading to an extended period of deflation over the summer. High inflation has for years been a top concern for Russian households as it dents their spending power and eats into living standards."
You mention using PPP. One common way of measuring wealth is what is known as the Big Mac Index (based on the relative cost of a Big Mac hamburger) or Big Mac PPP (because it measures purchasing power between currencies). The 2022 Index suggests that both the Romanian and Polish currencies are under-valued but (for obvious reasons) the Russian ruble is not included (https://fxssi.com/big-mac-index).
=======Your indicators of relative wealth are cherry-picking the data, i.e., you focus on gas, which Russia produces but Poland, for example, does not. How much have food prices risen in Russia compared with those elsewhere (see, e.g., https://www.reuters.com/business/ret...-2022-10-05/)?
past 6 months we have deflation here, and most got cheaper - food... it is falling in prices, not rosining, prices are now below numbers what were in winter because ruble got 20% stronger and all import is now 20% cheaper
manufacturers of pork for example are crying because sale price is below their expenses (in general they lie, but they really have low margin)
1 kg of fresh cooled pork without fat and bones is $4 - lower than chickens... (prices are in rubles, divide to 62 for USD, prices are from middle class supermarket, low level have lower prices but less service)
Attachment 12819
here is fresh cooled beef, best parts, no fat or bones, around $12 per 1 kg
Attachment 12820
fresh cooled chicken breasts, $4.8 per 1kg
Attachment 12821
all these products are domestic, so prices not fell as dramatic as on imported products...
Alright, now martial law imposed, and reports coming out the residents are being forced to Russia.
Moses, quit acting like Russia is some huge super power. It's not.
Martial law imposed only on territories what been taken by Russia - i.e. 4 formerly Ukrainian regions... it is not a news for them: they already were under martial law from Feb 24, but now it is Russian law instead of Ukrainian.
To Russia? You just said words what are criminal by Ukrainian law since they are evacuating to Crimea. It is correct news - citizens who are living on the right bank of Dnepr river are evacuating to left bank, because governors of new regions expecting bombing of right bank by Ukraine and also bombing of Khahovka dam above Kherson by Dnepr that may lead to high level flood.
Crimea is just in 100 km
Attachment 12822
Once again, you shift the grounds on which you have tried to construct a convincing argument by posting jpg and png images without stating from when and where they originate. They prove nothing about the current situation.
And, once again, you cherry pick the products on which you attempt - badly - to construct an argument, focusing only on foodstuffs.
Other sources contradict your claims of deflation, too. For example, "Aug 29 (Reuters) - Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said inflation will come in at 12-13% in 2022, below earlier expectations, as the economy looks set to defy the gloomiest predictions of a near collapse in the face of Western sanctions" (https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...ys-2022-08-29/).
Statistica reports that In September 2022, the inflation rate in Russia reached 13.7 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. The figure marked a decrease from August 2022, when it stood at 14.3 percent (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ate-in-russia/).
Trading Economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi) reported that "The annual inflation rate in Russia eased to 13.7 percent in September of 2022 from 14.3 percent in the previous month, the lowest since February and compared with market expectations of 13.6 percent. The main upward pressure came from non-food products (14.9 percent), followed closely by food prices (14.2 percent), and services (11 percent). Also, core consumer prices advanced 14.1 percent from a year earlier, easing from a 17.7 percent jump in the previous month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.1 percent, after a 0.5 percent decrease in August. source: Federal State Statistics Service."
If the Russian Federal State Statistics Service reports an annual inflation rate for September 2022 of 13.7%, I'll believe them over your claims of deflation.
Are you claiming that a failing inflation rate equals deflation, because the general definitions are "Inflation is an increase in the general prices of goods and services in an economy. Deflation, conversely, is the general decline in prices for goods and services, indicated by an inflation rate that falls below zero percent" (https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...-deflation.asp).
An inflation rate of 13.7% is definitely not below zero percent!
So much for being a newbie!!
Once again: I can read Russian, you cant, I know real sources of information, you are collecting "news" from filtered medias.
For example inflation (whole) is now 13.1% and it was in news in Russian language day ago, but you still have no idea about it because each local news should be translated and then filtered by Western medias, usually they are1-2 days late if it isn't breaking news. And inflation is inducted mainly by prices of services and luxury, somehow by prices of cars and electronics what are imported by unofficial channels.
Once again, you said pictures without source, but anyone who can read Russian see source right on the picture. You are so self-confident while have no idea what's going on here and trying to imagine picture by filtered medias. Don't be lazy, use Google Lenz for translation.
And about deflation says numbers itself: in February it was 18% and Biden-Alzheimer even promised 24% till the end of the year, current number is 13,1% and that means prices are going down and here is deflation 18->13,1. Unfortunately for mr Alzheimer Bank of Russia has huge practice to tame inflation, and last 6 months here is deflation, but 20-25% of inflation is in countries of EU - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - they were too much active in imposing sanctions and political emotions won against economical mind.
PS> movement from 13,7 to 13,1 isn't zero definitely - it is below zero: past 6 months inflation is negative, i.e. deflation.
Again Moses, I would like to ask you, what's your version of victory here? What does Russia need to achieve in order for you to feel as though Russia has been victourious?
Then I'll quote a Russian source from 6 October 2022.
"Weekly inflation in Russia down to 0.07% — statistics. It is noted that consumer prices rose by 10.4% from the year beginning
MOSCOW, October 5. /TASS/. Weekly inflation in Russia amounted to 0.07% from September 27 to October 3, 2022, the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) reported on Wednesday. Inflation was 0.08% a week earlier.
Consumer prices rose by 10.4% from the year beginning and by 0.03% since the start of October." (https://tass.com/economy/1518397).
As you know, TASS is a major Russian state-owned news agency, is the largest Russian news agency and one of the largest news agencies worldwide. Moreover, TASS is registered as a Federal State Unitary Enterprise, owned by the Government of Russia.
If a Russian state-owned news agency refers to "inflation" in Russia in October 2022, I will believe that there is inflation in Russia, particularly when the source states that "consumer prices rose by 10.4% from the year beginning."
Or is TASS lying to its international readers?
No, because you misunderstand what deflation is. It is a drop in inflation of 0.6% only - which is actually still above zero.
A drop from 13.7% to 13.1% is a lower inflation rate, but it is still way above a zero percent inflation rate (i.e., 0%) and is definitely not a negative rate.
For example, a zero percent interest on your bank account is written as 0%, not as a reduction in the interest rate from 13.7% to 13.1%.
Interestingly, official data for food prices contradicts your claims: "Cost of food in Russia increased 14.20 percent in September of 2022 over the same month in the previous year. source: Federal State Statistics Service" (https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/food-inflation).
It is you who don't understand what deflation is. Numbers 13.1, 13.7 etc are cumulative inflation in yearly measurement. When number decrease that means inflation in current time is negative. When on the week yearly inflation changes from 13.7 to 13.1 that means what inflation counted separately on this week is negative (i.e. deflation) and that has influence on yearly counted inflation - it contracts.
Me personally?
- A change in the government of Ukraine,
- the abolition of the language law,
- the recognition of the status of the Russian language as a regional official language in regions where more than 20% of Russians live,
- the prohibition of fascist symbols and ideology,
- the declaration of soldiers of SS divisions heroized in Ukraine as war criminals and the abolition of the renaming of streets named after them,
- changing the constitution of Ukraine in the part where it is declared that Ukraine will join NATO and introducing a statement about the neutral status of the country there.
And, of course, the recognition of Crimea as Russian, an apology for 8 years of bombings of the population of Donbass and Luhansk and recognition of their right to self-determination.
I suggest you look at the diagram in this guide - "Statistical literacy guide - How to adjust for inflation (https://researchbriefings.files.parl...62/SN04962.pdf).
Any inflation rate about zero percent, even if it is falling, is still inflation. The fact that some journalists may refer to falls in inflation as deflation does not mean that deflation as occurred,
Even The Bank of Russia (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=14243) reports, 17th October, 2022 - "Annual inflation slows down in most regions in September." The article does NOT mention the term deflation - and one would think the The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, doing business as the Bank of Russia, would know if the country is experiencing deflation or a decline in inflation!
looks like you cannot read... "even Bank of Russia " wrote clear "annual"... but I third time explain to you: weekly inflation may be positive and negative...
do you understand difference btw "cumulative" and "discrete"? cumulative (i.e. annual) inflation in Russia is now 13.1% (despite prognoses 25%), discrete inflation on week 41 is negative and that is reflected on cumulative (annual) inflation as contraction from 13,7 to 13,1
wow... most short ruled PM in UK? Trussonomic made her very bright but short living star on the political sky...
when you think more about sanctions than about own economic shit may happens... emotions, emotions...
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" as popularized by Mark Twain. The CPI (or whatever they call it in Russia) is a noisy number.
Using the change over a year is reasonable but over one week is swamped by noise. Claiming deflation because the annual rate this week is marginally less that last week? See the above quote.
Meanwhile state duma (russian parliament) are ready to improve anti-gay law making any announcement about gay theme illegal in public and media, except in negative connotation. Even for openly declaring that your are gay can lead you to a huge fine or even imprisonment. Really Moses, I don't understand how you can stand for this bastards and being gay in the same time?
It is not my understanding of the terms that is the problem - it is yours.
As I noted earlier (several times, I believe), there is some confusion about the terms but they have quite specific meanings - as the various sources I've mentioned state.
But to simplify things: A weekly drop in inflation is negative inflation, i.e., falling prices over a short period.
Negative inflation is often caused by a sharp drop in the price of certain goods or services - in the case of Russia, apparently food prices.
Negative inflation is a general price decrease that is not sustainable.
This is a temporary decrease that is part of a general trend of rising prices.
Over the medium to long term, that is called deflation.
The term deflation is used if the decline occurs over 3 consecutive quarters (so the general price trend is downward) or by some economists if the inflation rate is zero (the late Nobel Prize-winning US economist Milton Friedman was an advocate of zero inflation in monetary policy).
Weekly fluctuations are, therefore, negative inflation.
That is why, for example, there can be headlines like "Russia seen holding rates at 7.5% until year-end as inflation remains elevated" (https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...ed-2022-09-30/), and why, in September 2022, the inflation rate in Russia reached 13.7 percent relative to the corresponding period of the previous year.
So, to put it simply, weekly downward fluctuations in inflation rates do not constitute deflation but are negative inflation if there is still an inflation rate about zero percent.
However, you can nourish your illusions by more insulting posts if you wish but I will not dignify them with a response,
===This is a temporary decrease that is part of a general trend of rising prices.===
This is very brave conclusion. Totally wrong, stupid, since it never had base in real practice and science, but very brave. If you will proof it - you may get Nobel prize.
Again stupid question. Why you going to dispute while you know nothing about Russia and Russian economic? Do you think 7,5% is something bad? It is rate for to make unprofitable currency speculations with Russian ruble on local stock exchange. Than more volatile became currency market, then more high Central bank makes keyrate - for to press speculations down.Quote:
That is why, for example, there can be headlines like "Russia seen holding rates at 7.5% until year-end as inflation remains elevated" (https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...ed-2022-09-30/), and why, in September 2022, the inflation rate in Russia reached 13.7 percent relative to the corresponding period of the previous year.
Please take a look on historical records about keyrates of Central Bank in Russia:
Attachment 12823
SHOT IN THE FOOT?
LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Russia can access enough tankers to ship most of its oil beyond the reach of a new G7 price cap, industry players and a U.S. official told Reuters, underscoring the limits of the most ambitious plan yet to curb Moscow's wartime revenue.
Bank JP Morgan sees the impact of the price cap as muted, with Russia almost completely skirting the ban by marshalling Chinese, Indian and its own ships - whose average age is nearly two decades old - relatively ancient by shipping standards.
The G7 price cap plan agreed in September was shopped by the United States to industry players as a safety valve to total EU bans on Russian shipments ratified in June.
That may have boomeranged back on the sanctioning countries by sending energy prices soaring amid an already deep cost of living crisis as a potential global recession looms.
Daniel Ahn, a former chief economist at the U.S. State Department, says the countries sanctioning Russia overestimated their control of the global oil trade... "All it's going to do is reroute oil ... and make life difficult for everyone else, which is what is happening right now anyway," said Ahn "It's going to be less damaging than a complete seaborne import ban. They shot themselves in the foot, but they're now kind of trying to bandage it a bit."
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ap-2022-10-21/
And Russia keeps getting pushed back. Major retreat announced today. Don't feel like looking up the proper spelling of the name and don't want to butcher it, but I'm sure you all know what major city I'm talking about.
Who knows plans? Maybe it is retreat, or maybe it is just trick to collect as many as possible Ukrainian military in one place on the south and make fast move to Kiev from North, where is just around 100km from the border. Name of city is Kherson.
Kherson district is divided by Dnepr river on two parts: right by flow of Dnepr river, it is left on the map, western, and left by flow of Dnepr river eastern), it is right on the map. Historically eastern part was part of Russian Imperia since about 16th century and had name MaloRossia (in translation Small Russia) with border by Dnepr river from south (Black sea) till Belorussia (see black line on the map)
Now Russia keeps eastern bank and retreats from western (see red line on the map).
Attachment 12833
Mobilized conscripts aren't in fights: they are used as peacekeepers on acquired territories. That why they were need - to free regular army from such job. Also that why here in news we have only 2-3 messages per week about deaths of mobilized (I mean all news channels, not only state TV, but also channels in Telegram and other medias including medias of opposition).
The Motley Crew that Putin's assembled to represent his Military Force has retreated from Kherson (and other towns) for one reason and one reason only - and that's to avoid having his ill-trained forces overwhelmed and slaughtered.
It's hard to imagine this major retreat being a "trick", because if it was, Zelinsky and his commanders have been reading about it in the news for weeks. What kind of "trick" is that? To even suggest this is almost laughable.
There's reports out that the Russian infantry currentry comprises of three lines. First line is the criminals they grabbed out of pison, second is the mobilized conscripts, and third is the actual Russian military.
The third line's job is to shoot anyone in the front two lines who tries to run and retreat.
The first line of convicts are now free to rape and pillage to their hearts-content - the second line of conscripts have been spotted riding stolen bicycles around the countryside pretending to be Ukrainians (who can blame them) - and the third line, who immediately ran out of bullets shooting at the first two lines, are now blaming their Commanders who scurried back to Russia disguised as women wearing babushkas on day one of the battle.
Magnificent display.
I wonder if Putin has any more "tricks" like this up his sleeve?
My worry is that Putin already knows he's lost. He will never admit defeat though, because he's a strong Russian who thinks he's better than everyone else, same as Moses here.
My worry is if he's going to use WMD, whether it's nuclear, chemical or biological, it's probably going to be in the very near future. Lots of news reports saying the Russian retreat is a ploy. I don't know.... I just hope I don't wake up done day to news that after luring all the Ukrainian soldiers into that city, Russia went and wiped them out with a nuke.
That's what I fear at the moment, and I wouldn't put it past Putin.
Guys, you are funny dreamers.
Just take a look on the map of Ukraine. It is divided by Dnepr river from north border till south border on the Black sea. On territory of Ukraine river is 500-1200 meters wide. And there is just a little bit more than 20 bridges over Dnepr, 5 of which are in Kiev. All Ukrainian warehouses are on right bank, while all fights are on left bank.
By humanitarian reasons Russia kept bridges alive. But at any moment Russia may change it. Right after it whole Ukrainian army will be cutted from western supply chains, from ammunition, fuel, new conscripts, from everything. There is also no functional airports or airfields anymore on left bank.
https://sawatdeenetwork.com/v4/attac...3&d=1668084564
Moses, when this war initially began, Russian soldiers rocked up on the outskirts of Kiev with uniforms in their backpacks, awaiting their celebratory party of "liberating" Kiev.
That quite obviously didn't pan out, so not sure what else there is to say. You can keep dreaming all you want, but I promise, the West is just going to continue doing it's thing until Russia runs dry.
And remember, NATO has yet to actually enter this war.
NATO will not.
As per "liberating Kiev", that "jump" had another reason. You already saw: at the begin Russia never entered any big city. There was chance what Ukrainian military will make coup and will kick out govt of Zelenskiy. When Russia saw what army will not make coup - they withdrew military parts from Kiev region.
Are you delusional? Do you not remember the battles in northern Kiev, or something?
That 60km long armored column wasn't just there hanging out waiting for a coup. They were trying to invade Kiev, got their asses handed to them, then decided to retreat and concentrate on the east. Do you have a selective memory, or what's going on?
At what point do you wake up, and realize this war simply isn't worth it for the Russian people?
Oh, and the EU and NATO have already publicly stated, if Russia decides to use WMD of any kind (nuclear, chemical, biological), they will go in and the Russian military will be obliterated within days.
I don't know what you're seeing in Russia Moses, but here's the type of thing we're seeing in the West:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peVTNYXK3AY
Battle for Kiev??? In one month in whole Kiev region (population around 3 mln) were killed about 200 persons 60 of them are civilians. Are you sure what you are talking about? "Battle"??? You make me laugh.
Russian army arrived to Kiev's suburban and were waiting for signs of coup for to support it. In one month they retired back, since coup failed or even never started.
U.S. and NATO forces have been tracking every single nut and bolt in Putin's nuclear arsenal like hawks - and as much as a millimeter of movement of any nuclear hardware could potentially result in catastrophic consequences for Putin - and he knows it!
Putin is a master at ALWAYS PROTECTING HIMSELF. He remains un-flinched even as tens of thousands of lives are lost, including the lives of his own citizens who he carelessly casts to the winds of war knowing full-well that with their lack of training, supplies, leadership, etc., they will probably end up dead. All this, and he still remains un-flinched. BUT, one thing you will never see him do is put his own life in danger. And the threat of U.S./NATO nuclear retaliation would do exactly that.
Putin only has himself to blame for showcasing the actual strength of the Russian Military on the World Stage, especially at a time when there's so much global unrest. All this did of course is result in the knowledge that everyone now shares (all Country's) that his military force is totally incapable of invading and conquering any country - with questionable abilities to even protect his own borders if it came down to that. It would have been much better for the people of Russia if Putin didn't put these deficiencies on display. Hell, even China and India are kicking dust in his face.
What will never cease to amaze me is why the Russian people haven't already dealt with him? What more are they willing to lose?