China already answered that: don't forget history. Everything started from inspired by US coup in 2014, which gave power to nationalists on Ukraine. Rest is just consequences.
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True - Soviet/Russian history does seem to have a familiar pattern. "On November 30, 1939, nearly half a million Soviet troops stormed into Finland, beginning what would become known as the Winter War. The surprise attack came after the Kremlin, fearing a possible Nazi offensive through Finland, had insistently called for a land swap that would have pushed the Finnish border away from Leningrad (now St. Petersburg). Wary of Soviet intentions, Finland’s government refused.
Soviet planners assumed an easy victory in time for Josef Stalin's 60th birthday on December 21. It was not to be. Although the Red Army would eventually win the war, the defeat of the country of just 3.7 million people came only months later -- and at a terrible cost" (https://www.rferl.org/a/finlands-win.../30280490.html).
The 1939 Finno-Russian Winter War left 25,904 Finns dead. The Soviets lost at least 126,875 soldiers.
According ot Wikipedia "One Red Army General, looking at a map of the territory just conquered, is said to have remarked: "We have won just about enough ground to bury our dead." The official Soviet figure, issued just after the war, listed 48,745 dead and 150,863 wounded. According to Nikita Khrushchev, 1.5 million men were sent to Finland and one million of them were killed, while 1,000 aircraft, 2,300 tanks and armored cars and an enormous amount of other war materials were lost. Finland's losses were limited to 25,904 dead or missing, and 43,557 wounded." Wikipedia also reports other figures for the dead and wounded on each side but always the Russian dead and wounded massively outnumber the FInnish figures.
History repeating itself. Finland was a neutral state.
One difference between then and now, however, is that then "Unable to secure help from Britain and France, the exhausted Finns made peace (the Treaty of Moscow) on Soviet terms on March 12, 1940" (https://www.britannica.com/event/Russo-Finnish-War), while now the Ukrainians are receiving help not only from Britain and France but also a multitude of other countries - including the Russian donation of tanks, ammunition, etc., left behind by those advancing backwards.
New ratio to remember from history: 25,904: 126,875 or about 1:5
No, they didn't. Few points here:
1. China has already made it very clear they they support the sovereignty of Ukraine.
2. China already has so many internal and economic disputes at home, by no means are they in a position to start a war.
3. Even if China does start a war, it'll be directed towards Taiwan. There will be no support from China to help with Putin's bullshit invasion of Ukraine.
What blows my mind is how so many of you bull headed Russians haven't yet figured out how this goes. You're not going to win, and you're dooming your country and fellow citizens into generations of poverty for no reason. That's on you guys though. If you want to follow Putin into 50 years of abject poverty, then have fun with that. Don't blame the West for that when it happens, because it's 100% on you Russians for allowing it to happen.
Not surprising at all that Xi took one giant leep away from Putin.
Xi has is own problems (and ambitions) to worry about, plus the fact that the Chinese are not "risk takers" to begin with. If you were playing a game of chess with a Chinese person you'd probably grow a beard by the time the game was over - because they take forever to make a move. Unlike the West, that sometimes shoots from the hips thinking in terms of weeks or months, the Chinese think in terms of Century's.
Putin's Special Operation has done nothing more than lift the curtain so the whole world, including China, can see the true capabilities of the Russian military. I've felt from the beginning that this would damage Russia's global footing more in the long-run than even the isolation and economic disaster it faces.
While it is true that Xi has his own problems (and ambitions), it is not entirely true to say that Chinese are not "risk takers" to begin with. There are, for example, many Chinese proverbs that emphasize risk-seeking or risk-taking - but only for financial and not for social reasons. Chinese, for example, are known to be great gamblers, including on stock markets.Macau exists because Chinese - and not just the oligarchs - like to gamble. If money were at stake in a game of chess, a Chinese would almost certainly be a risk-taker, but not if friendship were.
Xi, however, has a history of speaking on risk management, particularly on "black swan" (or unpredictable crisis) and "grey rhino" (predictable risks that are often ignored because one never knows when they might emerge) events.
You know what's sad? It's estimated about 1.1 million Russians have fled since Putin ordered mobilization. That would have probably been enough people that if they marched on the Kremlin, they would have been able to overthrow the government.
And that's just the people who have left since mobilization was announced, much less all the people who left during the initial months of the war. Gather them all together for a "freedom walk" to the Kremlin / Duma, and that should be enough to let Putin know he's no longer needed.
According to a report in The Moscow Times (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...22-fsb-a77603; Updated May 6, 2022) "Nearly 4M Russians Left Russia in Early 2022 – FSB." The article states: "More than 3.8 million Russians have left the country in the first three months of 2022, according to data from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). A total of 3,880,679 Russians traveled for work, business, tourism and private reasons between January and March. Former Soviet countries saw significant spikes in arrivals after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Russians who fled out of opposition to the war were joined by those escaping rumored border closures, martial law and mass mobilization that have so far not materialized in the 72-day war. It’s unclear how many of these Russians have since returned to their home country."
"In the first 6 months of 2022, 419,000 people emigrated from Russia, RBC news agency reports, citing data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). This is twice as much as in the same period last year." (https://www.kyivpost.com/russia/twic...f-of-2021.html). The article points out that "Their return in the foreseeable future looks unlikely. Many people understand that as soon as they set foot on their native land, they can instantly find themselves behind bars on charges of “discrediting the Russian army.” After all, in today’s Russia, a person can be deprived of freedom even for an anti-war position or a “politically incorrect statement” on social networks."
Russians are already marching - but out of Russia, which should have shown Putin that he is no longer wanted.
I stand corrected.
After reading your response I did some Google reading and it appears you're absolutely correct. I'm learning something new every day. Before this war started I though Ukraine was a small country somewhere south of Spain.
I guess even with the Chinese lust for gambling they must view "Putin" as being just a tad too risky...LOL
They like to gamble - but they ain't crazy!
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It's difficult to guage how many people have actually fled Russia with intentions of leaving for good. Nonetheless, let's go with 6 million as that seems like a nice, conservative estimate from all reporting out there.
6 million pissed off Russians marching on the Kremlin / Duma. That would put an end to this atrocity of a war real quick.
And that's what the West is waiting / hoping for. It's up to the Russian people to realize they're being duped by Putin though, and nothing anyone in the West can do about that. I wish the West would do more in regards to supplying Ukraine with the weaponary it's requesting, but I'm hardly in a position to be making those calls.
Who knows, I don't care. I just want to give my dude a hug at the airport, get the house setup, grab the kids, then buy them a couple puppies while I listen to their excitement as they find out they're now dog owners. Kind of like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQTfElvFmBM
Darling, total amount who left and yet is not returned is 750 000. Numbers corresponding with numbers of border guards of countries to where Russians leaving. On September 1st it was 419000. After it here was panic from about September 15 till about October 1st and many (few hundreds of thousands ran).
By the way: since mobilization is almost over and many categories like IT-specialists declared "can't be mobilized", panic is over, and inflow is 1.5 times bigger than outflow now. We have daily statistic.
For example minister of foreign affairs of Kazakhstan told, what from 220 000 Russians who visiting KZ, 147 000 already returned to Russia.
https://www.caravan.kz/news/rossiyan...nu-smi-882339/ (it is Kazakh source, use Google translator)
P.S. Mayor of Moscow just declared end of mobilization in Moscow region. On past week few regions also declared end of mobilization.
I'm not your darling.
I did, and what the article actually says is: Kazakh Interior Minister Marat Akhmetzhanov said that Russians have started leaving the country en masse. More than 200,000 Russian citizens have entered Kazakhstan, and 147,000 have returned home, he said."
However, it also explains why.
"The authors of mosregtoday.ru cite several stories of Russians stranded in Kazakhstan. The interlocutors of the publication told about why some of their compatriots eventually return to the Russian Federation.
Natalia P., a Russian, has been living in Almaty for two weeks with her husband. The couple are working remotely, and they are faced with the problem of finding a home. "The entire flow of migrants is headed to the major cities of Kazakhstan, which are now facing big housing problems. Prices have doubled. If earlier one-room apartment in the center could be rented for 20 thousand rubles., now it will cost from 40 thousand rubles., and then, if you are lucky. But even the price - no longer the main thing, there are no apartments themselves, all removed", - said the Russian woman.
Denis T., for example, has been living in one of Kazakhstan's oblasts for a week. "I have been signed to many groups emigrating to Kazakhstan. If there used to be a lot of questions about going across the border or finding a home, now it really began to ask how to get back home. Denis says that the Kazakhs are a very benevolent people, and he has no problems with the paperwork. Everything was done quickly and without a language barrier.
"I think they're mostly leaving because of work," he said. Here, the pay is several times lower than in Russia, "- said Denis.
Retired military analyst and colonel Viktor Litovkin noted that many Russians left for Kazakhstan in a hurry and then realized that they had nowhere to live and work. "What else can they do? Of course, to go home. I think this trend will grow," the expert said."
However, the Kazakh report was only half the story - the rest is at https://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-2...32064860.html:
"Kazakh Interior Minister Marat Akhmetzhanov says 200,000 Russian citizens have entered the country since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization on September 21 amid Moscow’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
Akhmetzhanov also said on October 4 that 147,000 Russian citizens left Kazakhstan in the same period of time. He did not mention where the Russians were heading but last week Kazakh authorities said that tens of thousands of those Russians who entered Kazakhstan in recent days, moved further to neighboring Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Akhmetzhanov said that the number of Russians entering Kazakhstan has started decreasing since the weekend. Media reports said earlier that Russian authorities had placed mobile conscription stations at Russian-Kazakh border checkpoints.
Akhmetzhanov said last week that Kazakhstan will extradite Russian citizens to Russia only if they are officially added to international wanted lists.
Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev said earlier that he plans to hold talks with the Russian government regarding the influx of Russians, mostly males, to the country after the start of Russia's mobilization.
Kazakhstan's Digital Development Ministry said on October 4 that since September 21, more than 70,000 Russian citizens had applied and received personal identification numbers that allows them to set up bank accounts and work in Kazakhstan.
RFE/RL's correspondents from many towns and cities in Kazakhstan report that long lines of mostly Russian citizens continue to stand next to Public Service Centers seeking to receive such numbers.
Russian citizens do not need travel passports or visas to enter Kazakhstan for 30 days."
Si, if this report, which use Kazakh sources is correct, then the Russians haven't returned to Russia but have moved on to other countries in search of work and somewhere in which to live. Nor were the 147,000 who have left necessarily part of the 200,000 who had arrived.
Moreover, one of the reasons why the number of people fleeing to Kazakhstan had dropped was because of the mobile recruiting stations placed at the border.
Manipulations and propaganda.
I already posted report what daily outflow to Kazakhstan now is around 7000, inflow from Kazakhstan is 11 000 daily.
About 70% of Russians have no travel passport, so they can't "move further to Uzbekistan or Kyrgyzstan " despite speculation of author... moreover, looks like author never been in named countries... because to live there is almost like to live in Afghanistan. That why immigration to Russia from these countries is so high even now.
As per "mobile recruiting stations" - it is total bullshit and to write that may only person who has D or F in geography. Russia is federal country of 85 sovereign regions. Mobile station exists, but they are working for region where are stay. For example mobile station in Ossetia on the border with Georgia may mobilize only citizens of Ossetia, population of all other 84 regions may run free because this station isn't from their region and has no competences. Did you saw any picture with all 85 "mobile stations" on the one crossing border point?
Here how look regions:
Attachment 12816
On October 1, you claimed to be in the middle of the action, but later you stated your information came from family members (in undisclosed locations). As you continue not to cite any authoritative sources for your statements, there is no grounds to believe anything you write.
Unless you've lived in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan - or Afghanistan - your views on what living there is like are merely displays of prejudice, not statements of fact.
Your postings suggest someone whistling in the dark.
Reports now coming out that Russia is rounding up people from homeless shelters as conscripts.
Conscription is enlisting (someone) compulsorily, typically into the armed services. It is the act of involuntary labor demanded by some established authority.
The reported actions (“Russia 'is rounding up HOMELESS people as part of its military mobilization': Men 'are grabbed while queueing up for food and forced onto buses'” (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ilisation.html) and “Russia is grabbing men off the street to fight in Ukraine” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ilization-men/) suggest that the Russia Federation’s armed forces are using “impressment,” which Merriam Webster defines as “to procure or enlist by forcible persuasion,” and as “the act of seizing for public use or of impressing into public service.” Grabbing men of the streets by using the 21st century equivalent of “press gangs” would seem to match the definitions.
While both conscription and impressment are forms of involuntary military service, the former is the more organized and legal way for governments to mandate military services while the latter has decidedly rougher connotations. For example, James McPherson, Battle Cry of Freedom , Oxford 2004, page 833: A month later the governors of six more states, meeting in conference, enigmatically urged the impressment of slaves for ‘the public service as may be required.’”
Yes, I'm aware of what conscription is. I just never knew the Russian leadership was so depraved and desparate they would go to this extent.
I've never served a day in my life, but I'm even intelligent enough to know that rounding up folks from homeless shelters probably isn't going to create a highly effective fighting force. It's just a hunch, but pretty sure I'm right on this one.
Geez, what insanity... It's just straight up cannon fodder at this point.
Why are the Russian people not rising up yet? Have 5 million people march on the Kremlin / Duma to let Putin know his services are no longer necessary, and this shit would be over tomorrow.
Do I at least get a helmet?
My intention in defining conscription was not to insult anyone's intelligence but to establish that it is a lawful procedure when compared with the reports of what is actually happening as the mobilization falls short of the 300,000-man target, i.e., "Russia says over 200,000 drafted into army since Putin's decree" (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ee-2022-10-04/). The Washington Post actually refers to what the military forces are using as "press gangs" (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ilization-men/).
This conscription takes places after the failure of the spring recruitment period: "The 2022 spring conscription, which ran from April 1 to July 15, was supposed to recruit 134,500 soldiers. However, on July 11, Sergei Shoygu, the defense minister, said that by this date only 89,000 had been sent to the military units. His statement revealed that the spring conscription was a de facto failure." (https://cepa.org/article/russias-mil...h-will-worsen/).
I suspect this this mobilization is also a de facto failure.
Yeah, no worries, I no longer take offense to anything. I practice stoicism daily, plus am 40 now and have been through too much bullshit to care anymore.
It still doesn't make sense though. This must have been a decision from the politicians, because there's no way a military general signed off on this plan. Again, I have no military experience, but even I know rounding up the homeless and sending them to the front lines probably isn't going to achieve the greatest results on the battle field.
Here's a prime example as to how Russia and the West are different. I would love to see the US military start going around to homeless shelters in Houston, Texas and telling people they're now drafted and being sent to Ukraine to help in the war effort. Let's see how that goes! I lived in Texas for a year before, so I'm pretty sure I already know the end of that story. Very quickly, whoever the US President is at the time gets informed he's now unemployed.
As I posted earlier, I don't believe anything you write unless and until there is an authoritative source cited for what you report. This posting is an example of why I believe nothing you post because I can find no link in the Internet to such an article by the New York Times - although there are several other, older, reports on the topic of the use of rape by Russian forces in the newspaper, e.g., a report from MARCH 29, 2022, updated APRIL 3, viz, "Reports of sexual violence involving Russian soldiers are multiplying, Ukrainian officials say" (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/w...e-ukraine.html). I counted around 10 such reports on the Internet dating back to Bucha - a name I am sure you remember.
The use of sexual violence in Ukraine by Russian forces was first mentioned at the UN on June 6, 2022: "Reports of sexual violence in Ukraine rising fast, Security Council hears" (https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/06/1119832) by Pramila Patten.
The current reports on Viagra being issued to Russian soldiers seem to originate from a report On October 13 by Pramila Patten, Representative of the U.N. Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict, in which she "confirmed that rape is part of Russia’s “military strategy” and a “deliberate tactic to dehumanize the victims.” She emphasized that “when women are held for days and raped, when you start to rape little boys and men, when you see a series of genital mutilations, when you hear women testify about Russian soldiers equipped with Viagra, it's clearly a military strategy.”
According to Patten, the United Nations managed to verify more than a hundred cases of rape or sexual assault in Ukraine since Russia invaded in February 2022. The data obtained to date suggests that the age of the victims of sexual violence ranges from four to 82 years old. The victims are mostly women and girls, but also men and boys. Patten added that “it's very difficult to have reliable statistics during an active conflict, and the numbers will never reflect reality, because sexual violence is a silent crime.” As such, as she noted, “reported cases are only the tip of the iceberg” (see https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewelina...h=1803722836a0).
It was subsequently reported by other news sources, including https://www.hindustantimes.com/world...917929633.html, https://nypost.com/2022/10/15/russia...s-un-official/, https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...ficial-2022-10, https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/w...3248b456c.html, and https://newsroom.gy/2022/10/15/russi...s-un-official/.
CSM Times (https://csmtimes.com/russia-responds...ers-in-ukraine) reports that "The Russian Foreign Ministry responded to recent remarks from Pramila Patten, UN Secretary General Special Representative, who claimed that Russian military men supposedly used Viagra when committing sex crimes in Ukraine. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Patten's remarks "go beyond reason and can not be taken seriously." "Her words go beyond reason. In addition, the official is obviously acting outside her mandate and powers. At the same time, she does not hide the fact that in her judgments she relies on fragmentary data from an "independent international commission of inquiry into Ukraine" that Russia does not recognize. As she acknowledged herself, it was difficult to verify that information. In other words, we have yet another classic "highly likely case", only this time at the level of perverted fantasy," Maria Zakharova said."
Zakharova, however, did not deny that rapes had occurred - only that the soldiers had to resort to using Viagra.
The story of Russian rape in Ukraine is not new - the only new part is the idea that young Russian recruits need Viagra to perform. Given the recent performance of Russian forces in advancing backwards, I would not be surprised if there was some substance to the story, however.
New black hole on the Earth:
https://youtu.be/uPg5ORIXAmk
...very quick to jump to conclusions arent we...
I have not been in this thread, so I have no idea where everyone stands, but I thought it would be funny to share this great piece of Russian propaganda.
It is Important to understand that this was a commercial that ran in Russia in 2018. It was basically a warning from Putin to the Russian people: "this will happen if you don't vote"
:dash:
https://youtu.be/4OlOUK7WlCE?t=120
https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/custo.../v2_rul_rule42
Oh look, another violation of the Geneva Convention. Rape, torture, and bombing of hospitals and elementary schools is all in there too, but I guess Russia is just seeing how many violations they can rack up.
Moses' favorite general, however, has stated that "Russia warns Ukraine plans attack on Kherson with «prohibited methods of warfare»" (https://news360.es/australia/2022/10...f-warfare-4/): "According to the Russian military high command, the Ukrainian Army could carry out a «massive missile attack» against the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, located in the town of New Kakhovka.
Precisely this Tuesday Moscow has denounced a Ukrainian attack in this town, located in Kherson, where, they say, two people have lost their lives and a third has been wounded by shrapnel.
In addition, the pro-Russian governor of Kherson, Volodimir Saldo, has reported that the population of the eastern sector of the region has begun to be evacuated to the western part of the Dnieper River due to threats of a possible attack on the hydroelectric power plant.
Also, Surovikin has warned that Kiev is planning «a massive missile and artillery attack on the city without an analysis of the targets», according to the Russian news agency TASS.
«These actions may lead to the destruction of the infrastructure of a large industrial center and a large number of civilian casualties,» the top Russian military leader for the «special military operation» in Ukraine concluded."
A whiff of hypocrisy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h48yLWopgYo
And to think, back in February it was clear to everyone that Putin wanted to go into Poland and Romania as well. Pretty sure those hopes are in the toilet now.
No. Target #1 after Ukraine is Canada - the same climate, the same nature. #2 is Australia - because is laying just on opposite side of the Earth: just drill tunnel to, from Canada, also there are living kangaroo, they are cute.
What to do with Poland and Romania? Romania is poor, in Poland Poles always ask for donations and reparations. Now they ask for reparations for WWII, then will ask for reparations for WWI, then Napoleon's wars.
Nope, pretty sure Putin was reminising about the great Soviet Union. Those dreams should now be in the toilet. Russia can't even hold Eastern Ukraine, much less Kiev, Warsaw, Krakow, or Bucharest.
GDP per Capita by Country 2022
Poland: Ranking: 41 - GDP per Capita: $34,103
Romania: Ranking: 48 - GDP per Capita: $30,526
Russia: Ranking: 53 - GDP per Capita: $27,903
Source: https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...ita-by-country
The most stupid comparation. Newbies always compare GDPs without correction on internal consumption. for to compare countries you should always use GDP PPP, only for countries like Qatar or Luxemburg it isn't important - more than half of GDP is going to export.
You already saw: monthly amount of gas here for one family costs $3 and counted like $3 in GDP, monthly amount of gas in Poland costs $600 and counted as $600 in GDP, but it is the same amount of gas. The same story with all natural resources and their products. By the way: Poland also count as GDP EU dotation in tens of billions Euro...