It was post in Russian for Russians.
By the way: Moscow Stock Exchange index grew 0.7% at day of Navalny arrest.
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You again bringing here "Kremlin's murder". Only idiots here and some brainwashed by Western propaganda on West believes what it was Kremlin's attempt to kill. I already answered that question: Navalny annoys a lot of people in Russia: businessman (including oligarchs), some regional elites. Also is known what Putin doesn't like him. So there are a lot of possibilities who may be involved into attempt to kill him, but for sure it wasn't Kremlin or Putin. I'm sure in 99% what it was somebody's "private project": for to bring good news to Putin or for to resolve own problems - I don't know.
Just for sure it wasn't "official task": here - on Russian territory - "official tasks" are always successful: just leave a little bit of ricin in bedroom and "client" will never wake up and you will find no traces - it will looks like a heart attack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5sjosRF7-M&t=126s
So that phone call he had with an FSB agent who admitted the attempted murder is just propaganda?
Ok, than another question. If he's just a tool to help benefit the Kremlin by showcasing how dumb the opposition is, why arrest him and throw him in jail for 30 days? How is he supposed to make the Kremlin look good by acting stupid when he's just sitting in a jail cell?
This is the problem with conspiracy theories. They are so hard to keep factual.
How do you know what he is "FSB agent"? Because Navalny says so?
Second answer: he is honey pot, "Navalny case" will stop real opposition.
When he and his brother were charged for crime, his brother got real prison, Navalny got conditional release. When people from his close circles receive 3-5-7 years in prison, Navalny got just 10-15-30 days of arrest and communal works. Google "Gapon Russia".
By the way "throw to jail" sounds like a comedy. "Throwed to jail" Navalny posts announcements in internet, eats free caviar, watches TV and plays games - check interviews with foreign football fans what were "throwed" to the same "jail" where Navalny was spending his 30 days.
Well, I'm cynic and have no illusions what secret services in world smells Chanel #5 or defecates by roses. They are humans and human is the most weak element of any chain. To compromise and blackmail is most cheap and preferable method of any secret service. Torture and kill - second one.
And to those who will want to say something about "Russian habits" and "shine glorious American agents" I have just one word: Guantanamo. Is it already closed? Obama had 8 years and promised it many times.
Hmmm it seems a few more people than you suggest seem to care for him perhaps.......well if you don't do the usual and just cry "western propaganda" that is.......
So either 500 turned up if Russia authorities are to be believed or closer 3000 if Sota ( an Independent media source) reports correctly or either 4000 or 15000 in Moscow depending who you wish to believe? Along with rallies in other cities planned and lots of sharing of stuff re him on line etc too it seems ?
Not exactly "nobody cares about him" as was suggested above perhaps ?
Copied from that western propaganda rag ....the BBC ....
"Dozens of people have been detained as police try to stop nationwide protests in Russia in support of jailed opposition politician Alexei Navalny. Police are also breaking up groups of his supporters gathered in the capital Moscow, ahead of a protest there. Thousands of people have already taken part in rallies in Russia's Far East, where there were also arrests."
Video in the lins....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55778334
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55778334
This has probably run it's course now. We all think Russia is gruesome and Moses insists it's lovely. No point arguing about it.
I told yesterday, today will be protests. What's wrong?
Oh, I see. You think it is somehow linked to Navalny. It is not. Listen what crowd chanting, you will hear it even you don't know Russian. They are chanting "Putin please go out!" or just "Putin go out!" - "Pu-tin U-kho-dee!" and other such things. No one word about Navalny.
Now you see: Russian is democratic country where people are able public protests. And nobody call them "internal terrorist"... at least yet.
Do you want to know how real protests here looks like? Not these by marginals, but real crowd protest... look on the picture. It is square in front of Kremlin. That you will see when majority will protests. Compare with pictures what you see now...
Attachment 10687
"If it's run it's course people will stop posting. The fact that it may no longer of interest to you is not a determinant of its future! "
You are of course absolutely right. Any member can trudge back to the start and slalom down the piste as many times as they like. But the course won't change, it goes to the same place and through the same gates.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55778334Quote:
Russian police have detained more than 3,000 people in a crackdown on protests in support of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny, monitors say.
Tens of thousands of people defied a heavy police presence to join some of the largest rallies against President Vladimir Putin in years.
In Moscow, riot police were seen beating and dragging away protesters.
This is propaganda. Navalny doesn't worth mass protests, nobody will gather for him in masses. You may search for thousands videos from protest and you will see only "Putin" on banners and hear only "Putin" in chanting. Nobody care about freedom of criminal Navalny.
This is correct. Some says what it is most big protest since 2017, some says what it is most big protest since 2013.
You may ask "why now"? Govt lifted restrictions for mass gathering since Jan 22. Yesterday was first day off after lifting. Why it is biggets since 2013? COVID. People are pissed off by restrictions, quarantine, job loss.
this is correct also
This picture is from Moscow - protesters near isolator, where is Navalny now.
Attachment 10688
Isolator - special place where arrested are waiting for court.
As per news there were only about 300 people, more half of them were journalists and TV. This shows how much people care about Navalny's destiny here.
From todays FT.
https://on.ft.com/3qSYC2YQuote:
Two years ago, a Russian friend told me that he thought that Alexei Navalny posed a serious danger to Vladimir Putin. I was sceptical. Russia had weathered the international condemnation and economic sanctions imposed after its annexation of Crimea in 2014. The country had just staged a successful World Cup. President Putin seemed well entrenched in the Kremlin.
But my friend was right. Through his bravery, determination and investigative flair, Mr Navalny has galvanised the Russian opposition. He has survived an attempt to kill him and returned to Russia to face arrest, imprisonment and, possibly, death. His example inspired mass protests across the country over the weekend. Whether Mr Navalny ultimately succeeds or fails, he now represents the most dangerous threat that Mr Putin has faced in the two decades since he took power.
Bullshit from propaganda. Navalny was serious danger about 2011-2013. But at 2013 he made many mistakes: fighting within opposition for leadership, union with ultra-right and nationalists. In 2013 at time of election on the Moscow mayor seat he was on peak. Now he is nobody from nowhere - mostly like a sect for high school students and people who like conspiracy.
In 2014 he told what annexation of Crimea is right and correct movement and in one moment lost about 50% of his supporters.
At Saturday you already saw: about 100 000 protesters against Putin and about 300 protesters for to support Navalny.
Remember: now one only real competitor from opposition to Putin exists - Khodorkovsky. Unfortunately for West Khodorkovsky is rich, independent and educated. Most important - he is independent. That why West tries to play with Navalny card - Navalny depends on grants and is already tamed by West.
Surely even you would accept Moses that at least some of those 100,000 who protest against Putin may perhaps also support Navalny. It seems odd that out of 100,000 people you're suggesting a mere 300 support him.
And again would you not agree that just because they're not waving banners with Navalny's name on them doesn't mean they are not sympathetic with his cause and wish to protest their feelings as to his treatment otherwise why did the people start protesting on his arrest and not weeks / months before ( and yes I know there were restrictions on meetings before that re Covid etc but I doubt that would stop 100,000 people if that felt strongly enough about something perhaps no ?)
But to instantly dismiss 100,000 people on the streets as them just out to protest Putin and nothing else, when they're out immediately after Navalny's arrest seems a little off too. I'm sure you're right that their main protest IS about Putin but Navalny's arrest does "appear" to have been a catalyst in them deciding to protest - dont you think ??
I already told: "immediately" after Navalny arrest is just because they lifted ban for public gathering in most cities from Jan 22. Jan 23 was first Saturday (typical day for protests) after Jan 22.
Pity you don't understand Russian. Just open youtube and find somebody who will translate to you. Almost all interviews started from "I'm here not for Navalny but against Putin". To support Navalny is "bad taste" here: he cooperates with right wing and nationalists and this is like a stigma here - he will never have majority. Russia lost 40 mln in IIWW.
Navalny on "Russian march". Behind him in Russian "Russia is owned by Russians" and "Russian March". Look at his right hand. He will never have support of general public after it.
Attachment 10690
It is 2014 or 2013... Navalny marching with nationalists (yellow-white-black). No Corona yet here, but many hiding their faces behind of masks
Attachment 10691
Wanna be sure what yellow-white-black is bad? Look here:
Attachment 10692
OK Moses, I'll take your word for that and assume you are correct.
So, assuming then that the people WERENT there as a sign of support for Navalny but to protest against Putin what is your view about that ?
So will the protests concern Putin in any way and / or perhaps threaten his position or will he simply ignore this ( small by Russian standards) group of protestors and simply carry on with "business as usual" or instead of 100,000 protestors would it take 1000000 protestors or is the number actually irrelevant and no matter HOW many people protest will it remain "business as usual" there just with Putin being secure in his position - no matter what ?
Despite of stereotype "no democracy in Russia" here it exists, but not that directly as you are adapted to see. It has own specifics. Putin wants to be popular - it is for his safety and he knows it.
When at past he made personal income of every Russian growing (5-10 times, depends on region), he was very popular: at some moments he had support of 80%+ population. When oil made export less profitable and income went down his popularity faded, but it is still above 50% (around 60% now). Virus gave many problems and made some frustrations. That why so many fast steps and PR about vaccine.
Putin controls his popularity via regional governors - they have KPIs, whithin its are 2 points - level of trust in governor in region and level of trust to Putin in region. These who had both KPI below 50% will be changed - by law president may send to resignation any governor and to declare new elections. Putin uses this tool quite widely: even if all governors will have both KPI above 50%, last 5 of them in ranking from 89 will be dismissed by results of each year. For to measure happiness and approval level usually Kremlin uses auditors from TOP-4, most often PwC, sometimes Gallup.
So currently Kremlin will order measurement, then will talk and maybe dismiss some governors where protests are more strong than average and where happiness is lower than average.
I actually quite like the idea of running a Country based on KPI's like that - hell if we allowed our politicians here to either stay or go according to their KPI's there wouldn't be many of them left in their jobs thats for sure !
Thanks Moses, your responses on Navalny are interesting as a balance to the reporting in the part of the media that I do(mostly) trust!
There's a lengthy measured opinion piece in this week's Spectator that broadly agrees with Moses. It ends:
"Seen solely from the point of view of electoral arithmetic, the smart strategy for the Kremlin would be to let Navalny walk free and continue its policy of officially pretending he doesn’t exist. But the electorate is not the constituency that keeps Putin in power — it’s the FSB. And the hard men of the Lubyanka have made it amply clear that they are not in a forgiving mood."
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...e-next-chapter
The main mistake in article: United Russia isn't Putin's party. It is leading party (at least in current electoral cycle), but it isn't president's party - president here can't be member of any party. United Russia supports Putin, but all other parliament parties including opposition also supports him more or less - he is popular here. Parties are fighting each other in parliament for laws in accordance with their programs, but all supports most of Putin's decrees: for to became not order but law they should be voted in parliament in both chambers, and at past 10 years here were only 2 or 3 cases when decree was declined by parliament.
Despite media at West write about his dictatorship, Putin has approval and support of majority - in parties and in population.
A national leader can control a political party without being a member - plenty of examples of British aristocrats from the 17th Century onwards doing it. As well, any opinion poll’s results can be manipulated by the questions it asks and the order in which it asks them so they’re at best an indicator of probabilities, nothing more.
Here’s a masterclass in getting the answer you want from opinion polling
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ic6c...usTrumpPodcast
The more I read your explanations of political life in Russia, Moses, the more I'm struck by the parallels with a certain SE Asian country. Patronage networks, shadowy figures controlling political parties, endemic corruption, vast concentrations of wealth, political assasinations of opposition politicians.
Why you limiting your imagination by Asia? Look at US. Few families what shadow controlling whole country. Just look at Kennedy. Should we talk about Rothschilds when we are talking about concentration of wealth?
Here one more theme for you to discuss. Somebody at West had read too much historical books. Lenin. He was in Germany, then was returned by German secret service to Russia and supplied by money. Everyone knows what was late in 1917. Now Germany again returning one more idiot to Russia and pays grants to him.
https://www.ft.com/content/f1a35c6f-...9-5a630b381648 finally ....
Quote:
A mistaken analysis leads to bad policy on Russia
You must be pleased to find this opinion expressed in the western press. Although, for balance, I would point out both that it is only a letter written to the FT, rather than a news or editorial comment, and that it it describes Navalny as a good and brave man, which doesn't quite tie in with your previous comments.
At least author really spend time here and isn't "analytic" who sucks his "forecast" from the middle finger...
What? I never told what Navalny is coward, why you wrote "brave"? Navalny is nationalist and populist, nobody from nowhere and controlled by grants toy of West. I'm ready to repeat that. Western propaganda describing him as a leader of opposition, but he is not leader - he is most loud populist, who earns his grants by manufacturing scandal after scandal for Western medias.