Down 20% at the moment, hopefully it'll pickup again.
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Down 20% at the moment, hopefully it'll pickup again.
I find it amusing that so many people are absolutely loving this, and are enthralled about it...
Yet, when it was bitcoin everyone shunned it and stuck their noses up at it. Go figure...
to be honest I understand Bitcoin even less than I understand the stock market. But this particular event is interesting, given the comments on reddit and watching the share price graph. Plus I'm on lockdown...!
Yeah the truth is very hard to pin down as so many differring narratives being put out, both by the media, wall street and those on Reddit who would claim to know about these things.
The key point being of course being HAVE Wall Street managed to cover their positions or not as they are claiming or is it all subterfuge to scare people into selling so that they can do so ! My "guess" is that the truth lies somewhere in the middle and that the City will carry on playing just the same game as they have been today and on Friday with a few ladder attacks thrown in every now and then just to unsettle things and shake people up and slowly chip away at them ( as all their talk of "Im holding until the moon is all very good until they start to see those big red losses appearing on their screens Im betting !).
Speaking of which I do wish some of the rediit types would stop with all this silly 'going to the moon" every other sentence nonsense, I di realise it's all part of their vocabulary and that its "cool" but it's all so bloody excitably "American" - I mean whats wrong with just a quiet "yes, it seems we all quite like this and so I think may perhaps all just sit back, have a nice cup of tea and see where it goes from here" (yes I know all terribly British in reverse but same net result ;-)
The one thing that IS scary no matter and who turns out to be right or wrong are the posts with people saying "I've never bought or owned stock before but I've just gone out and cashed in my pension to buy this" or "I've just maxed out 5 credit cards and I've sold a lung" ( ok the last part I made up but it's not far off the truth !).
Those people suggest they are buying at around $280 or so by GOD they may hope that things go the right way for them as if not and their buy in stories are true ( as I suspect some of them are) if may not be just Pattaya who witnesses the amazing flying farang from a hotel balcony displays perhaps over the coming weeks ! :-( Ha Mind you considering I popped another £5k in on Friday myself maybe I'll join them ! ( I'm joking, if it all goes to shit it'll be fine :-)
Still, no matter what is going with these particular stocks it's a nice relief to see the rest of the usual suspect stocks such as Tesla and Nio etc all starting to return to something close to their usual trajectories after friday's plunge there too ( which I'm guessing was caused by some Traders having to pull some of their easy money from anywhere they could just to cover their asses perhaps !)
PS Bloomberg are lying fucks !!! The amount of "news" they've released all designed to back up the traders is incredible - such as now " stock now halted" as their head line - when it clearly hasn't been ! is crazy - they go on later to say they mean it's run has been halted but even that it's assured for now - why you'd almost think that the main stream media LIE to us sometimes or something ! :)
Yes there are all sorts giving advice,conspiracy theories....some true I'd say...and the constant rocket memes etc. all can be off putting. Another ₤5K ! Well that answers my curiosity as to whether you still in the game.
I thought time was against the big guys and they'd be forced to buy back the shorted shares, but so far they're not doing that. But somethings gotta give!
Robin Hood is doing Damage control. They're even doing paid advertising on this blog post, hence how I found it... via a sponsored / paid link in Reddit.
https://blog.robinhood.com/news/2021...ened-this-week
Basically, had to put a stop on trading due to clearing house rules requiring hundreds of millions in order to settle the trades, or something like that... don't know, I'm not a trader.
Yeah, so they say - and they're still restricting purchases of only up to 20 trades and only if you already own stick it seems. Whether their actions were intentional or not they surely killed momentum and saved the traders asses last week - which considering several of the trading companies are major shareholders in Robinhood is just a tad coincidental perhaps eh !
Certainly if a lot of the credit graphs are to be believe the volume of trading is very small which would suggest that it is traders bouncing the same ( sometimes just 100) stocks back and forwards at ever decreasing minuscule amounts of lower price to create the playing field as it stands now. For sure I were them I'm be playing (this?) long game in the hope of people losing interest and simply selling up - but given the energy behind this thing I cant seen that happening for a few days at least - but that's maybe exactly the time they're happy to hold to anyway to match that, so we'll see.
Certainly the press BS re the whole Silver rush etc has been off the scale all day after clearly being discounted on the Reddit etc ( even though the press have claimed the exact opposite) and you can clearly see BOTS posting there in large numbers to try and entice people away from the main action.
RH, have limited buying GME, but it seems they have no problem letting people sell as much as they want...seems a little odd, especially given others e.g. Fidelity, are allowing people to buy GME. Do they even have the legal authority to do this? I thought that was up to NYSE to stop trading.
Their argument is / was that under SEC rules they need X amount of liquidity to cover their sales ( at any given time) and when this blew up they simply didn't have that liquidity so HAD to stop selling, they've since gone out at found 6 billion ! of new funds ( you can guess where THAT can from ) and so can start selling again - but only at a maximum of 20 shares per account ( still a great way of limiting sales whilst avoiding the bad PR and possible court cases later ( which are sure to follow).
Yes the whole thing stinks of foul play. The only thing that will bring them undone is if the small investors continue to hold,but that requires discipline which seems lacking going by many of the redditors. Hopefully i'm wrong.
oh I don't know, I don't think there was too much sold off today by retail, tomorrow will be more fun and games no doubt. Sure it beats sitting watching TV ! :)
Nirish, please excuse the big copy n paste,but I thought you should see this,assuming you haven't already.
Mind you I don't pretend to understand it . lol
It goes without saying ,this could be a load of nonsense or could be precisely whats happened, i'm in no position to say...that's for you to decide...lol
TLDR; Melvin and gang hasn't covered shit. They've been illegally "closing out" their short positions and if we hold they will 100% get fucked. There is far more nefarious shit at play.
So this morning I saw the S3 and Ortex data both report significant covering of short positions for GME. This absolutely threw me for a loop because Friday morning they reported above ~120% short interest still. I could not for the life of me figure out how someone could close >50% of short positions on such a tightly held stock in ONE day with very little trading volume in the week. This got me digging around to figure out what's up.
I started by looking into GME failed to delivers (i.e. short sellers not able to cover their position on a stock) for the first half of January and I was shocked to find that just in the first 15 days of Jan, GME had ~1.2 MILLION failed to delivers. This is before most of wsb or mainstream began buying.
What was interesting though, is that of that ~1.2million, ~700K shares were covered in chunks throughout the two week period. I dug further back into the SEC failed to deliver reports for GME and saw that pattern extending back months. It seemed almost as if the short positions were just being kicked down the road.
Having spent some time looking at the pattern, it's clear a large amount of failed to delivers come in, then a small chunk of coverage, then another large amount, and so on. To me this looked shady af so I looking into reasons that could cause that and discovered this article: https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/oc...risk-alert.pdf
In it, a specific section is eerily similar to what we've experienced with GME:
"Assuming that XYZ (e.g. GME) is a hard to borrow security (e.g. apes holding strong), and that Trader A (Melvin), or its broker-dealer, is unable (apes again) to borrow shares to make delivery on the short sale of actual shares, the short sale may result in a fail to deliver position at Trader A’s clearing firm. Rather than paying the borrowing fee on the shares to make delivery, or unwinding the position by purchasing the shares in the market, Trader A might next enter into a trade that gives the appearance of satisfying the broker-dealer’s close-out requirement, but in reality allows Trader A to maintain its short position without ever delivering on the short sale. Most often, this is done through the use of a buy-write trade, but may also be done as a married put and may incorporate the use of short term FLEX options. These trades are commonly referred to as “reset transactions,” in that they have the effect of resetting the time that the broker-dealer must purchase or borrow the stock to close-out a fail. The transactions could be designed solely to give the appearance of delivering the shares, when in reality the trader has no intention of meeting his delivery obligations. Such transactions were alleged by the Commission to be sham transactions in recent enforcement cases. Such transactions between traders or any market participants have also been found to constitute a violation of a clearing firm’s responsibility to close out a failure to deliver."
It's almost like a play by play of what we've seen (in combination with the ladder attacks). My guess is we'll find out more when the failed to deliver report for the second half of Jan comes out on the 17th.
I 100% think that Melvin is committing massive securities fraud. In fact, I would bet all my money on it - oh wait, I did 96 GME @ 290.
I am now holding on principle to see these fucks fail.
More DD: https://www.reddit.com/user/bcRIPste...posed_the_meta https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm
Not a financial adviser, I eat paint chips for dinner
EDIT: Ok, so I've been reading some comments and I wanted to clear a couple things up:
The failed to deliver number is reported cumulatively. So if you sum everything for the Jan time period it'd come out incorrectly as 5 million. What I'm doing is summing all the debits to get an aggregate view of all the failed to delivers in the time range. This process is validated and discussed in other /r/wsb posts
I know ETF's could have been redeemed by some MM's to gather up GME stock. However I'm not convinced there is enough GME held in ETF's to be a significant factor. Someone in the comments reported this amount to be about ~10M. We would know if a bunch of ETF's rebalanced and dumped GME.
My number for the Ortex short interest was incorrect, I got mixed around when I wrote this initially. The short interest reported by Ortex on Friday morning was ~80%. The 120 figure for S3 was correct.
Please checkout the linked DD - it goes into much more detail and covers things far better than I can.
Share this post and the related DD. We need to hold wall street accountable if this is true and I think that starts by spreading the word.
I'm going to continue to dig into this tonight / tomorrow. Look forward to a new post tomorrow evening.
If I take an L to 0, I take an L to 0. I don't invest what I can't lose. But you can bet your ass I'll be holding till this blows open.
WE LIKE THE STOCK
Yeah as I’m sure you’ve read there are a ton of theories flying around, some sounding very logical and practical and others in full “make America great again” full trump support style.
For every positive take there’s a negative one and for every negative one there are 50 people happily claiming “it’s the man manipulating even more”.
Personally I’m not so sure about that. But there has certainly been plenty of manipulation going on in general but as to whether the traders have / has already managed to find some smart way to cover already on Thursday / Friday perhaps is the ( multi) million dollar question !
My gut feeling tells me they possibly have as this IS what they do ( very well usually) for a very good living and I’d be amazed if they could come up with some work around between themselves to avoid getting shafted and being made look bad by mere amateurs.
As I said yesterday I am more concerned for the people who “sold the farm” to Juno on this and I’m just hoping a lot of them were exaggerating their claims, but I’ve a sneaking suspicion perhaps not though.
Personally more out of stupidity and stubbornness to see things through to the end as I usually do I’ll sit tight ( I think) fir now as i always knew it was a punt from the start and whilst of course no one likes losing money thankfully I didn’t break any of the two rules ( well ok maybe the one Re chasing the loss lol but that ok :-)
So we’ll see, still all very interesting to watch and “who knows” it could still go either way depending who’s right or wrong or blatantly lying. Honestly I don’t claim to know which of the two camps that might apply to more even anymore harder. But we’ll see over the next week or three I guess.
Nirish, it just dropped again by nearly $100 ! Is this actually happening or is it a ploy?
Mark Cuban, giving an AMA on r/wallstreetbets at the moment.
Where are my heart tablets?
My GUESS is as I said above that the shorts DID actually cover last week as they claimed and if so that changes the entire reasoning for holding
don't think they've have covered in the normal manner but using those ETF's that are being talked about perhaps and exchanging them, I assume there's a ton of backroom ways they can play these games long before anyone sees them coming - BUT that IS just a gut feeling guess and both sides have reasons to claim otherwise.
Personally if I had to call it I'd say it's fairly much all done and over now possibly and if it's true as some are claiming they're going out and buying £1000's worth of stock but buying on margin calls then they seriously need their heads look at - no matter WHO is right or wrong as thats basically like using the casinos credit card to gamble with but know that they can call you into the office at ANY ( usually the very worse) time and ask for their money back that you had to borrow in the first place and if you cant cough up they break your legs ! ( or in this case take your house perhaps).
Saying that it seems the younger generation don't seem to give a flying fuck about debt the way us older guys do / did as I know at least three younger friends who all maxed out various credit cards and loans and ended up going full on bankrupt - and not one of them gave a damn about any of it and in fact two of them did it TWICE !
So as I'm sitting watching the counter slowing counting down close to zero dollars per share ( or there abouts) I doubt there'll be any of the huge spikes that people ( I ) was hoping for, thankfully for me it's no real odds and was only money I'd made on other stocks all getting lost and won anyway so it's only really wooden dollars ( in my head) - mind you when I'm next heading to the shops I'll probably look at my account and wonder "hmm where did that ten grand go to again" and quietly kick myself, buy hey al part of the game and part of the fun and why you don't risk what you can't or shouldn't really afford to lose.
BUT saying ALL of that....you just never know - and I'm holding ! ( just in case :-)
Great attitude,honestly.
But , it a'int over 'till the fat lady sings
I understand less about the whole business now than I did a few days ago. lol
Not asking for explanation...relax.lol
You are not in the same situation as many of the redditors. I hate to say it but they looked at this GME thing as a way out, they see themselves as trapped and unlikely to break free...so they took a punt....which is understandable.
You on the other hand have an excellent lifestyle, Thailand,Philippines, Bali, I think you mentioned Spain at some stage,and you still have your job/business. This is just a bump in the road for you.
Ha don't you believe it as £100 or $150k would have been a very nice addition to funds to accommodate exactly those trips ! But as you say thankfully it'll not be reduced to beans on toast for the rest of the year "just" yet - mind you a few more investments ( gambles ) like that and who knows :) Thank fully as I'd said I'd literally made around £7k the day before on another trade so it doesn't really feel like "lost money" more just an annoyance of not "making money" - but as I also said that's all very well until it comes to those shopping trips and that's where reality kicks in - who know perhaps all those geeks and weirdo gamer types on Reddit will go out and buy games at GameStop and their ACTUAL stock will increase and likewise their new CEO does actually have a good track record of turning businesses round so things may just improve a bit anyway. For some reason I seem to be in a glass half full mood today so I'll go with that for now. :-)
* I see that the drop in price actually triggered the SECs alarm mechanism which means that from tomorrow the traders wont be able to short the stock as they have been doing, meaning anyone buying has a clearer picture and a better run at lifting it a bit so "if" there is any uplift that could well be a help to people for that, who knows eh.
But I'll let it all sit as these things usually have a way of sorting themselves out - they say the Lord looks after his own" so I'm sure with my clean living Christian outlook on life I'll be fine ! lol ( Ha or perhaps I SHOULD sell actually if thats the case more like :-)
No point selling now. You may as well see it through at this stage...and pray. you might be going shopping yet!
whooo. Not quite a rocket more of a fireworks now. check the trajectory now!!! $137!
Exactly .....oh and yes thats an interesting wee lift ......it's peaked my interest again :-)
Anyway either way it's just a matter of cutting ones cloth to suit ....so I've just called my yacht broker and amended my pre-sale purchase instructions to take me from this.....Attachment 10701 to THIS......Attachment 10702
So, that should just about level out the loss :-)
Hard to say if its profit taking or the HFs are still controlling the buys.
Ive had enough for one night.
So at the end of the day, basically just a big pump and dump that went viral?
No not at all. Whats happening with the share price falling is manipulation by RH APP. They have choked / stopped investors buying. This is unprecedented. On a level playing field the hedge funds would have suffered.
RH has been ( compensated !!! ) to do this,and will probably lose in the many court cases lodged against them. But they don't care,it's better for them to get the big money and take a chance in the courts than the certain huge financial losses if buyers are permitted to trade.
The share price is still about 20 times the price it was about 12 months ago...
Pump and dump by comparison is just bullshitting potential buyers.
No, I know you'd love it to be so that could do the "I told you so" dance :-) ( as remember I said I thought that too at the start) - but honestly I don't think "in general" it was - I think there was a massive shorting issue ( not i think that's just a fact that no one actually disputes ) - the issue was always more as to whether the traders had managed to cover their their asses in time or not before the Reddit guys piled in to try to screw them,
The big lift in price ( up from say $20 to nearly $500) may well have in fact been them actually trying to do so.
So as much as "I told you so" might be nice to say sometimes, it wasn't actually a simple pump and dump in the true sense that we all know it - quote the opposite in fact as the market fought like a bitch to keep the price DOWN not up - although it may well end up more of a mini pump and dump perhaps over the next week or two trying to entice new people and new money in perhaps - although IF the shorts hadn't covered if that happens that could cost them dear too ?!
Well if it does actually soar in price, to say $1000 or more a share, then if some people start "pumping" it up further, that is to be expected. At that stage its up to every small investor to decide for themselves whether to sell or not. It was always going to come to that. At the end of the day people are trying to make money regardless about some saying they want to teach the HF's a lesson....that.. I'd take with a grain of salt.
This is more like speculation than investing. I'd imagine by the stock price is at least 10 times what the underlying business is worth, but it's not worth my while to investigate, since I like to protect the downside.
It's slightly surprising to see this thread get so much attention, when I would have thought more members would have been interested in steady investments.
THIS IS WORTH READING.
Nirish, I know ,I know you MIGHT have seen this already but just in case you haven't I'll post it. My usual, "sorry about the big copy n paste, dunno if its true or bs, up to you blah blah". lol
Also, do not buy that dinghy just yet, because if the stocks take off,---- "you're gonna need a bigger boat".
Good Luck.
----"Oh my god! GME is down to $150! It's down to $100! It's down to 30 cents! The hedgies are going to cover all their shorts at that 30cent price point! It's over!
Wrong.
No one is selling at these prices. Sure, maybe a few scared folk who don't know any better. Maybe they trigger a few stop losses. Maybe some margins get called. But it's not enough. Say it with me:
PRICE DOESN'T MATTER
WHAT?!
You heard me. 30cent GME? No problem.
They don't need a low price, they need your shares. If 10 people sell at 30c cents, and that's the only market activity, it's a "30 cent stock" but Melvin only netted ten shares. They are still fucked. They aren't buying 50 million shares at 30c, nor $100, nor $300, and that's their problem. It's an availability issue. Sometimes it's ALSO a price issue (too high for them) but primarily it's the availability.
All the activity driving down the listed share price are illegal ladder attacks (not that legality should be expected at this point, these folk are crooks). Those aren't actual sales though, it's just shares trading hands from hedgie to hedgie. They aren't gobbling up value. These people don't admit defeat, they are neither smart nor humble, they are crooks. They need 50 million+ shares. They need over 100% of the float to sell to them (that 50% float you hear about is accounting shennaigans, ignore it, they are still exposed). You can NOT close that many positions sniping a few shaky handed noobs. We aren't talking about a few shares they need to buy, we're talking about fucking ALL OF THEM.
I'll explain that in a second, but first let me repeat:
PRICE DOESN'T MATTER
So let's say you want to buy 50 million shares, let's look at what shares are being asked for in my hypothetical example market:
# of Shares - Price
x 20 - $0.30c
x 80 - $5
x 400 - $20
x 600 - $40
x 900 - $60
x 2,000 - $100
x 5,000 - $150
x 10,000 - $200
x 30,000 - $300
x 50,000 - $400
x 150,000 - $500
x 1 mil - $1,000
x 15 mil - $5,000
x 30 mil - $69,420
Get it? There are only a few people willing to sell at those low prices. By the time you've bought a quarter million shares (0.5% of what you need to buy) you're back up to the sustained highs. And these are just exaggerations to make a point. A stock price only reflects current trade values, not availability at those prices. If the hedgies are trading their shares back and forth to each other to drive down the price and they have ladder attacked down to a Nickel, that doesn't mean anyone's shares are only worth pocket change, that just means that that is what things are trading at in the moment. There's no volume to buy up at those costs. No one can force you to sell at a Nickel.
Get it?
PRICE DOESN'T MATTER
They need our shares, not a low price. The price does not reflect whether we are 'winning' or not. Their financial reserves indicate that, but there isn't a ticker for that. But be sure, every day the inevitable closes in. Sell out of fear if you like, but you'll just miss out in the end. People like me, as we shore up more funds, snipe these low prices, stealing away shares the hedgies use to ladder and taking shares away from shaky hands and putting them into steady ones.
This isn't financial advice, I just want to make sure people on this sub have the knowledge to not make fools of themselves in casual conversation."
https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetb..._to_not_worry/
yeah all that is fine Z - just as long as they haven't covered their shorts - THAT - is the million dollar point and one that no one CAN answer as that data doesn't come out until the 9th of Feb I believe. As I've sure you've seen your self there are widely ranging opinions on this that go from they're in deep at 140% shorts right down to they've covered the lot and this is just a done deal and everyone should leave the party. Truthful answer is that NO ONE ( except the hedge funds) know the TRUE answer.
My guess is that the hedge funds have managed to cover a hell of a lot as the retail percentage stock ownership isn't actually that high to begin with - again some would like you to believe "we own the lot!" - we don't, we're lucky if it's even 30% of the stock - the rest is owned.....you guessed it, by other hedge funds.
So to me it seems quite logical that they would all help each other out at this time their industry was under attack and even if it cost them all tens of millions they'd band tougether to see this thing off and finished - and may a lot of money on taking NEW short positions on the new money that new retail traders are still throwing at this.
BUT I could be totally wrong as hedge funds are well known cheaters, liars and scammers and then LIE !! and so the higher percentage of non covered shorts could well be a thing, only time ( and may a long time ) will show that as Wall Street can stretch this game out and play it for much longer than the average 20 year old kid who's dumped his first wage cheque into this perhaps but needs that money back at some point soon.
So, for me I'm looking at this as nothing more than a fun game of poker and playing to see who blinks first and who's either bluffing of has the lower hand and if if means me "holding" and blowing the last of my pot in this trade to "see" them in a few weeks time then so be it, thats all part of the fun I guess and we'll see will I wipe out the rest of my pot OR if the Reddit guys were right all along that it starts to rise and we make a little money - my best guess for now is the first route there by the way about an empty pot as to me that seems the most likely and logical outcome here - BUT - that's not when I "gambled" in the first place - so, we'll see ! :-)
Yes.
If it turns out thy have already covered all or most of the shorts,then they are now only hoovering up more money. But as you say if they have not covered,then all this fluctuation of share price is a ploy, and they are still trapped,and everything in my last post will play out in your favour. The plot thickens...lol
Learnings (as Borat would say):
1 Never short anything with a high percentage of shares shorted. Although I rarely short anyway.
2 Ignore all this hype and carry on looking for stocks I'm happy to hold for 10 years or more. There is less competition when trying to get rich slowly, as people have short attention spans these days.
Sorry to say Nirish, I think it's over. Had RH not been the main platform for the retail buyers it would have been a different story, but once the HF were able to control/ stop the buyers the "die was cast", now its just a mopping up process.
WBS was also overrun with BOTS and their memes rockets ,diamonds etc making it impossible to believe anything,where once serious strategies were discussed,and valuable insights explained.
C'est la vie.
Yes i think you're probably correct about all of that - mind you I'm so stupid / stubborn ( take your pick) I've literally just went on and bought another 30 shares ! ( what was someone saying on another thread earlier about a fool and their money being easily parted !?) :-)
But whilst that may seem crazy just now ( and most probably will turn out to be very soon as it nosedives) there is some ( very questionable) logic in my thinking ....
So after me originally buying it late and high i.e 40 @ $338 i.e a $13520 total cost or so, unless something miraculous happens the chances of it getting back anywhere even close to that figure again is slim to NEVER happening and not a bloody chance I'd say just now.
So my "loss" if selling now at $66 would be around $10800, but by buying another 30 shares I am of course lowering my average share cost price and whilst if selling now at $66 my losses would increase by $300 dollars or so to $11080 IF !!! there's ANY increase my losses will then reduce pro-rata of course and |F (notice there's a lot of IF's here eh :)) but if somehow ( perhaps on the 9th of Feb?) we somehow sneak back up a bit, say even to around say the $120 mark again - as thats certainly more realistic than my previous $338, then if I sold that would reduce my overall loss to around the $7300 mark i.e about £5k sterling - which whilst it's still a bit shit isn't the end off the world thankfully.
IF ( there's that if again) but just IF it ever goes up more than that ( perhaps after several months and after their new CEO being in place and maybe doing something miraculous with the company (as I'll just hold these now for a while I think) well any other rise there would of course help to reduce that loss even further ( he said not quite believing it himself but you never know ! :-)
Oh and of course if it all turned out to the lie that people thought re the funds not covering yet ( ha they SO have !) then this time next month I might be bathing in champagne and booking my yacht after all lol ( don't worry I don't ACTUALLY think that ever happening anymore but hey some people believe in God and to me that's even crazier so you just never know !!! :)
Stranger things have happened I guess. Clearly money is no object ..to you! Lol .
In any event best of luck.
a nirish and his money...sad to say..are soon parted