India cancelled its wheat exports in order to "salvage its falling inventories." “There is a sudden spike in the global prices of wheat arising out of many factors as a result of which the food security of India, neighboring and other vulnerable countries is at risk,” an official notification banning exports said. The notification was dated May 13, 2022.
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https://www.business-standard.com/ar...1400133_1.html.)
The following report from S&P contains interesting information of how Russia arrived at its figures. Note that the the Russian figures include wheat from the Crimea and the Donbas regions, which are internationally recognized as illegally annexed Ukrainian territories. Note, too, that the expected yields are dependent on the weather.
The Russian government's official numbers include the territory of Crimea, unlike the USDA's. The Ukrainian government's statistics also exclude Crimea and the conflict zones in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
I imagine, too, that the yield depends on having people and machinery to harvest it. I understand Russian combine harvesters are built with CLASS technology, i.e, technology from a German company. Getting parts, etc., might be a problem. Replacing the dead and wounded killed in Ukraine might take longer.