The wisdom of crowds

The wisdom of crowds is a view that most people are right most of the time. The most obvious example is the "how many jelly beans in this jar?" question. As the book of the same name sets out, the most probable answer is close to the sum of the guesses divided by the number of guessers, assuming a large number of entries

Following the crowd or, worse, making assumptions based only on generally-available information is not always the best solution. Even the betting markets can be wrong, as those who, like me, assumed Trump would not win can attest. These Forums are full of assertions by members about other members (most of whom they've never met - my friendship with a447 being the most obvious exception) based on inferences based solely on the assumed tone of what they write. Many have pleaded for the poster's IP address to be published so they can "prove" one or other pet assertion about his identity (I'm happy for the owners to publish the IP addresses of my last 20 posts by the way)

So I was intrigued when I cam across an article about how to improve on the wisdom of crowds by encouraging more diverse responses through selective rewards. Of course, it does require always keeping an open mind as well as a vigorous sense of curiosity, something possibly beyond many of the posters here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PejjvNAY_zc

I find it's more often "crowd dumbness" than swarm intelligence. When I travel alone, everything is fine. But when I travel with friend(s), it can take twice as long to cross a road, therefor I now suggest splitting before crossing and everyone crosses on their own and on other side we re-unite. One relies on the other to know the way, "up to you" mentality, problems finding a place to eat that satisfies all, missing the way (when going by car and talking instead of watching road and sat-nav).

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Originally Posted by christianpfc

I find it's more often "crowd dumbness" than swarm intelligence. When I travel alone, everything is fine. But when I travel with friend(s), it can take twice as long to cross a road, therefor I now suggest splitting before crossing and everyone crosses on their own and on other side we re-unite. One relies on the other to know the way, "up to you" mentality, problems finding a place to eat that satisfies all, missing the way (when going by car and talking instead of watching road and sat-nav).

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Frankly, in Bangkok I always wait to cross the road with a group of Thais, taking care to place them between me and the traffic

This is an error - motorists would think nothing of mowing down a bunch of Thais and you'd get almost certainly get killed in the follow-through.

You should definitely cross on your own as it's a much bigger deal if they run over the typical farang sex tourist. Not only will they have more questions to answer but their motorbike, car, or even bus is likely to be completely written off.

This does not of course apply to me as Arsenal has already attested to my fit-as-a-fiddle frame.

:D

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Originally Posted by scottish-guy

This is an error - motorists would think nothing of mowing down a bunch of Thais and you'd get almost certainly get killed in the follow-through.

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I'm looking forward to you supplying information about the frequency of this happening :stop_mini: