Thaksin has been found out, and out-manoeuvred

[jinks]

Thaksin has been found out, and out-manoeuvred

By Thanong Khanthong
The Nation
Published on April 15, 2009

Before noon yesterday, key red-shirt leaders like Veera Musikapong and Nattawut Saikua, among others, realised it was time to cave in. They understood that it would be futile to continue fighting because their boss, Thaksin Shinawatra, had been finished.
Yes, the plug had been pulled and the fugitive former PM was completely routed.

It will be difficult for Thaksin to seek asylum because most countries would not want to welcome him now that they have witnessed the riots and subversive tactics used by his supporters in Bangkok. Thaksin was caught telling blatant lies on CNN and BBC, feeding false information to the global audience that his red-clad supporters were fighting for democracy - when in fact they were burning Bangkok to pave the way for his return.

He was reading a script, telling the international news channels that the military had killed many of his pro-democracy protesters, when in fact there was not a single such case of death reported. The only two people who died, had done so during clashes between Bangkok residents and the protesters.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was wisely exercising restraint, allowing Thaksin to make blunders.

Thaksin, who bet all his political fortune on April 13, has failed miserably. He had his red shirts set fires around Bangkok just as Neptune overshadowed the Sun - a bad omen.

He thought he had big military and police bosses on his side, as well as some politicians on the government wing. He remembered to move his family out of Thailand a few days before the Songkran inferno. Khunying Pojaman is currently shopping in Dubai, still with plenty of money in her pocket.

Thaksin thought he could hold Thailand hostage as he bargained for his return, his amnesty and his Bt76 billion in assets. He thought he was entitled to a royal pardon because he had Thailand in the palm of his hand.

But his strategy backfired. Thaksin failed to get critical mass support. On the contrary, Bangkok residents rose against his red-shirt supporters, who were burning Bangkok while he - just as Nero fiddled while Rome was burning - was singing on his karaoke machine. The subversive tactics being used by the red shirts appalled the global audience.

This was a critical factor. If most Thais were to rise against the red-shirt movement, then Thaksin could only go under. Thaksin thought that the burning of Bangkok would force the country into lawlessness and the military would step in to intervene in his favour.

The plan did not work.

The whole world realised that Thaksin had duped it all along, and many Thais were disgusted by his ability to destroy the nation in exchange for his return to power.

Bangkok was ravaged all Songkran Day, before the security forces brought the situation under control. By then Thaksin must have realized that the game was up.

Now all the red-shirt leaders will be going to jail under treason charges. If you plant gas tanks and threaten to set them ablaze, you are committing an act of terrorism and subversion against the state. It is not too difficult to trace who ordered the trucks to be brought onto the streets.

Now Abhisit has emerged as a strong leader. He has almost transformed overnight from a lame-duck PM who was forced to cancel the Asean Summit in Pattaya into a leader who can defuse a political crisis in a subtle and artful way. There were no deaths during the authorities' crackdown against the red shirts. Only two persons were pronounced dead, both as a result of shooting by the red shirts.

Abhisit has prevailed despite the military, the police, the security people and his own political partners plotting against him.

Though we have no evidence to substantiate doubts that these top people are linked to Thaksin, we did not see Army chief General Anupong Paochinda or police boss Patcharawat Wongsuwan show up while the red shirts were ambushing the Asean Summit. The security forces were not doing their duty, standing by idly as the protesters wreaked havoc in Pattaya.

So far none of Thailand's top security people have come out to admit that they failed to provide security for regional leaders and Thailand's guests.

Abhisit is known to have sought advice from a special unit, set up in haste under his command. As Thaksin played his cards one by one, the advisers countered each hand effectively until Thaksin lost his bet.

At this hour, with the power of the emergency decree in his hand, it is Abhisit - not the Army chief - who is the most powerful person in Thailand. He must use this occasion wisely by controlling the red shirts and dealing with the failure of the security apparatus, which has been undermining national interest and the government's stability.

We expect to see a reshuffle of top security and peacekeeping personnel soon.

However, if Abhisit resorts to his image of a timid Oxford graduate, he would be missing out on an opportunity to take the country forward. Now is the time for him to stand tall and be the prime minister that Thailand desperately needs.

I wonder if Toxin thinks he is beaten, I wouldn't think so! Power and money totally corrupt men like him as he has shown over the long years he has been involved in Thai politics. Only time will tell but I would not hold my breath on it!

[joe552]

Does ANYONE believe that Abhisit came out of this a stronger political figure? I'm no expert on Thai politics, but the coverage on BBC and Sky certainly didn't show him in a positive light.

[pyro]

Well, as I agree that much of what you say seems logical Jinks, my understanding of Thai politics is almost non-existent. I hope you are right. If this doesn't stop him completely, I hope it will at least significantly limit his ability to do further harm.

[krobbie]

There must be examples made of the terrorist puppets of Thaksin Shinawatra by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and before too long, while all this is still fresh in the Thai people's minds.

Thaksin (Neville No-mates) must surely realise by now his shit stirring days are over for the most part. This is a sad man with no country even his wife divorced him for expedience. Not quite sure what the Dubai Shopper's (Khunying Pojaman) role was in all this but I would guess she distributed the funds before she left to get her new bag and shoes. I would keep a watchful eye on this cagey ol' fox.

I guess now the nation can have a very happy songkran ... at least most. For some higher ups in the police and security forces it will be a time for a lot of bowing and scraping before they are sent off to direct traffic in Nakon Si Thammarat.

Happy songkran guys,
krobbie

[joe552]

There was certainly strong action taken against the Yellow Shirts who took over the airport last year and caused so much chaos, so no doubt we can expect similar strong action against the Red Shirts. Oops, my mistake!

The birth, or abortion, of democracy is a very messy business.

Here is what the Bangkok Post and the Nation are not telling you. The "Yellow Shirts" represent Bangkok ( a very small minorty)... of the rich, aristocrats, middle class business people, royals..and most importantly the POLICE, because policemen must buy their jobs and once they become police they join the chain of corruption and become middle class to rich, depending on how good they are at gaming the corrupt system.

The Army on the other hand is much more volatile. The officers are from the ruling class, but, and there is huge BUT here, the enlisted ranks are "Red Shirts." The Red Shirts are the rural, small town and village poor (a very large Majority of the population), many of their family members are wearing red shirts and are on the streets of Bangkok. Anyone with money buys their way out of enlisted military service, so it is an Army of the poor, being lead by the rich.

The reason that you did not see up until the last minute the Army move again the crowds is the military leadership's fear that the Army would turn on the Government and cause real democracy to happen. It is also the reason that you have seen military vehicles left on the streets for the red shirt crowds to take...the soldiers have just walked away. It is, also, the reason that you have seen numerous pictures of soldiers, in full battle dress, on tanks loaded with Red Shirt protesters driving through Bangkok.

When there are elections the Red Shirts win every time, so the Yellow Shirts cause a coup, use the courts, or cause enough civil unrest to over turn the election and put their people back in power. Now the Red Shirts are playing the Yellow Shirt's game and trying to cause enough civil unrest to topple the government. This is an old game going back many generations.

Also, understand that the press is tightly controlled by the Yellow Shirts, so what you read from any Thai news organization is to be taken with a grain of salt. When news reports or reporters step out of line: it is out of business or off to jail with them...no bail.

And it all ended so quickly. The government offered buses to take the Red Shirts home, and the Red Shirts took the government up on the offer. So, who will run Thailand: will real democracy take hold or will the rich minority remain in control the decission is put off for another day, and Songkran was back in full swing!!!!

The birth, or abortion, of democracy is a very messy business.

Here is what the Bangkok Post and the Nation are not telling you. The "Yellow Shirts" represent Bangkok ( a very small minorty)... of the rich, aristocrats, middle class business people, royals..and most importantly the POLICE, because policemen must buy their jobs and once they become police they join the chain of corruption and become middle class to rich, depending on how good they are at gaming the corrupt system.

The Army on the other hand is much more volatile. The officers are from the ruling class, but, and there is huge BUT here, the enlisted ranks are "Red Shirts." The Red Shirts are the rural, small town and village poor (a very large Majority of the population), many of their family members are wearing red shirts and are on the streets of Bangkok. Anyone with money buys their way out of enlisted military service, so it is an Army of the poor, being lead by the rich.

The reason that you did not see up until the last minute the Army move again the crowds is the military leadership's fear that the Army would turn on the Government and cause real democracy to happen. It is also the reason that you have seen military vehicles left on the streets for the red shirt crowds to take...the soldiers have just walked away. It is, also, the reason that you have seen numerous pictures of soldiers, in full battle dress, on tanks loaded with Red Shirt protesters driving through Bangkok.

When there are elections the Red Shirts win every time, so the Yellow Shirts cause a coup, use the courts, or cause enough civil unrest to over turn the election and put their people back in power. Now the Red Shirts are playing the Yellow Shirt's game and trying to cause enough civil unrest to topple the government. This is an old game going back many generations.

Also, understand that the press is tightly controlled by the Yellow Shirts, so what you read from any Thai news organization is to be taken with a grain of salt. When news reports or reporters step out of line: it is out of business or off to jail with them...no bail.

And it all ended so quickly. The government offered buses to take the Red Shirts home, and the Red Shirts took the government up on the offer. So, who will run Thailand: will real democracy take hold or will the rich minority remain in control the decission is put off for another day, and Songkran was back in full swing!!!!

The only problem with the item above (maybe a newspaper article or a red-shirt press release?) is that the red shirts wouldnt know democracy if it bit them on the ass. Not to suggest that the yellow shirts are great upholders of democracy either, with their idea of 'new politics'. If the red shirts want to change the government democratically, they should do it at the next election, and do it legally without committing electoral fraud. If so many of them hadn't been involved in vote buying last time they would probably still be in power. And the issue that got the yellow shirts going was that Samak was trying amend the constitution to let these disqualified ex-MPs the hook, hardly the work of a champion of democracy.

The previous government lost power after the courts found that a number of its members, including its leader, were not elected in a legal manner, ie they were not democratically elected. The yellow shirts' protests didn't cause that, it was a decision of the courts, another part of the democratic process that must be missing out of Thaksin's democracy handbook.The remaining MPs, the ones who were there legally, decided for whatever reason to vote to support a Democrat led coalition. Thats how the PM is elected in a democracy - its never a transparent process, its always done with back room deals. No doubt the yellow shirts' protests had a lot to do with the forming of the coalition, as Thaksin's old cronies realised he was becoming a liability, but the remaining democratically elected MPs voted to form that coalition. The current coalition government is as close to a democracy as you are likely to see in Thailand.

The red shirts are probably correct in saying that the current coalition government was forced together by people working in the background, but how is that different from Thaksin doing the manipulation as he was trying to do after Somchai was disqualified, and as he did when both Samak and Somchai became PM? Isnt it that exactly what he was doing - and he is a convicted criminal on the run who has been disqualified from politics for 5 years by the courts?

This wasn't about Reds and Yellows, or Democracy or Thaksin. Its about people and a topic we can't discuss. There is an "end-game" being played out right now and Thaksin thought he was going to be the one to call the shots. But he is clumsy and his effort backfired on him, his supporters and his patrons.
There might be divisions in the Army but to call for the overthrow of the government and directly attack Prem was a colossal blunder and lost him all his support in that quarter.

It will be interesting how the repercussions play out in the next few weeks.

Well, dave_syd ...thanks for the complement??? "(maybe a newspaper article or a red-shirt press release?)", but it was my own original creation. And now I'm going to do a cut and paste and put it up over on GayThailand. It wasn't intended to be an op ed piece that expressed any particular political point of view, simply a statement of what happens behind the smiles. Please in the future have the good sense to not believe anything that you read in the Thai press.

"The courts found that they were not elected in a legal manner"....what in the world else would the Yellow Shirts, ie. ROYAL Thai Court find??? When you can't win an election there are but four choices...submit to the will of the people...use your guys on the court to overturn the election...cause so much civil unrest that the duly elected government resigns...or thow a full blown coup. The Yellow Shirt... have used three of the four in just the last several years.

Does ANYONE believe that Abhisit came out of this a stronger political figure? I'm no expert on Thai politics, but the coverage on BBC and Sky certainly didn't show him in a positive light.

That's CNN and BBC. My experience of asking westerners what they saw on television is that the country has been unfair to Taksin and that appeasing him would be the correct action toward improving the "lot" of Thailand. That, howver, seems to be the conclusion of the financial news.

I can't possibly EVER think that Taksin could be appeased after this obvious display of his willingness to foment socila disorder in order to acheive his means.

I don't get the US news cable here in bkk. We watched the news all day here. My translater says Taksin was said to have lied many times about the number killed and the good people og Thailand that he accuses of materminding a plot to remove him and replace him with Abhissit.


A reporter at the Bangkok Post lost his job under heavy pressure when he published photos and report of cracks in the runway of Taksin's pet project Suvarnabhumi. He was accused of lying and damaging the country's reputation - the only problem was that he was right and Taksin was lying, as he makes a habit of doing - most recently on both CNN and the BBC.

As long as we don't give Taksin any CREDIT for the airport project that was conceived and started years before he came to power. If Taksin did aNyTHinG I wqould think then he only "rushed" the project's completion to help to grease the hands of those who serve him. And look what happened to the runway. And don't forget the scanners.


even his wife divorced him for expedience

Could it have been for alcholism as well? I don't have the quote handy but he has one servant in charge of keeping the obvious away from the video feeds, even that, it was a little obvious at times that he was drunk - hmmmmm maybe poster boy for the anti-drink campaign?

Well, dave_syd ...thanks for the complement??? "(maybe a newspaper article or a red-shirt press release?)", but it was my own original creation. And now I'm going to do a cut and paste and put it up over on GayThailand. It wasn't intended to be an op ed piece that expressed any particular political point of view, simply a statement of what happens behind the smiles. Please in the future have the good sense to not believe anything that you read in the Thai press.

"The courts found that they were not elected in a legal manner"....what in the world else would the Yellow Shirts, ie. ROYAL Thai Court find??? When you can't win an election there are but four choices...submit to the will of the people...use your guys on the court to overturn the election...cause so much civil unrest that the duly elected government resigns...or thow a full blown coup. The Yellow Shirt... have used three of the four in just the last several years.

Sure, the piece was written in a professional style. But to me it does read like red shirt propoganda - we are the good guys and everybody else is the bad guys, trust us. I don't dispute much of what you say about the forces at work behind the facade of democracy here in Thailand, its hardly a secret. But how is it any different to the way Thaksin tried to run things. Seems its just that the power behind the scenes has just shifted away from his control, so all of a sudden he pretends to be a champion of democracy.

I dont believe blindly what is written in the Thai press, or any of the overseas press for that matter. I try to form my own opinion from the sources available, including what I see and hear here myself. As for intimidation of political opponents and the media, I think Thaksin was pretty adept at that. The foreign media here didnt seem to contradict the local media, the government and the hospital spokesmen when they disputed Thaksin's claims that 'many' were killed by the army in the songkran riots. Were they all in on the conspiracy too?

As for the Thai courts, I think they are showing more independence now than they ever did when Thaksin was around. Maybe they are biased against Thaksin, I dont know. Or maybe the trials were genuine and they are just not in favour of Thaksin anymore. Are you suggesting that Thaksin is innocent and that the corruption charges against him and his associates are groundless? Or that there has not been electoral fraud? Or that his family didnt manipulate the tax system to try to avoid paying a huge amount of tax on the sale of Shin corporation?

I dont agree with everything the yellow shirts did either, but in my opinion the disruption of their protest was nothing in comparison to the anarchy the red shirts got up to. And any suggestion that Thaksin and the red shirts represent democracy is a joke. If they had their way, it would be Chairman Thaksin as leader of the People's Democratic Republic of Thailand.

Hopefully Abhisit will address some of the issues for the poorer Thai population and bring back some unity to the country. He has already said he will continue with some of Thaksin's programs. At least when he speaks he sounds like he might be telling the truth - Thaksin doesnt have the credibility of a used-car salesman or real estate agent (apologies to any used-car salesman or real estate agents here). I think there is a lot more promise for Thailand with him in charge than Thaksin or one of his cronies. And maybe one day Thailand will have a real democracy.

[Smiles]

Well, as I agree that much of what you say seems logical Jinks, my understanding of Thai politics is almost non-existent. I hope you are right. If this doesn't stop him completely, I hope it will at least significantly limit his ability to do further harm.
Ehhh ... jinks cut & pasted that first post from The Nation. None of it is his original opinion.
Not denigrating either the piece, or jinks, but it might be a good idea if our esteemed Moderator enclosed his quotes within, well, quotes.

[PeterUK]

I thought Thaksin had no chance of returning to power before these latest developments and he is certainly finished now (though probably not in his own mind). Good riddance, he is a corrupt megalomaniac who abused democracy while in power and would have been bent on vengeance against his enemies had he got back, as well as continuing the process of turning the country into his private fiefdom. But let's not forget that, albeit for his own purposes, he did bring benefits to the lives of the rural poor, who have been largely neglected for a very long time by the established elite. He has unleashed forces for change in Thai society which will not easily be bullied back into dumb acquiescence - and shouldn't be. While a lot of the red shirts have been behaving like hooligans and have alienated moderate Thai public opinion, many among them want real democratic progress and should now dissociate themselves from Thaksin and form their own movement with new leaders. Unfortunately, given the realities of Thai society and politics, I think it will be a long time before their voice is truly heard. At least smug politicians in Bangkok now have to factor the rural poor into their murky equations and make sure that some benefits head their way - another part of Thaksin's unwitting positive legacy, one might say.

While a lot of the red shirts have been behaving like hooligans and have alienated moderate Thai public opinion, many among them want real democratic progress and should now dissociate themselves from Thaksin and form their own movement with new leaders.

Its just my opinion, but I think the majority of Thai people probably have very little interest in democracy. They are more likely to be interested in improving their standard of living, which is why they were attracted to Thaksin who certainly did direct some money towards the poorer areas of Thailand. Whatever system of government which provides that will be fine with them.

I just came across an interesting quote!

"The Party seeks power entirely for its for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power. Not wealth or luxury or long life or happiness; only power, pure power. What pure power means you will understand presently. We are different from all oligarchies of the past in that we know what we are doing. All the others, even those who resembled ourselves, were cowards and hypocrites. The German Nazis and the Russian Communists came very close to us in their methods, but they never had the courage to recognize their motives. They pretended, perhaps they even believed, that they had seized power unwillingly and for a limited time, and just round the corner there lay a paradise where human beings would be free and equal. We are not like that, We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes a revolution in order to establish a dictatorship..."
It's from 1984 by George Orwell, which incidentally was written as a warning, NOT an instruction manual.

[Bob]

Excellent analysis, Peter.

I suspect, like you said, that nothing much will happen differently for some time to come absent the happening of other events. When the present King should die (an event I'm not eager to see or advocating) and presuming the Crown Prince is installed as Rama X, then there very well may be a substantial change in what the moderate Thais want to see happen in their country. I do believe Rama IX is the glue that keeps certain forces at bay and it's been obvious that the #1 rallying cry has been the old "he or that group disrespects the King"; upon Rama IX's death, the notion may carry a lot less weight with everybody and maybe we'll somewhat witness an old-fashioned popular movement.

The new Bangkok elite (meaning, to me, the younger people with much better than average education) at some point in time may wish to throw off the shackles of corruption. They didn't like Shinawatra at all and perhaps that was due to Shinawatra's corrupt activities (such as signing a deal with Indian firms for his Shin Corporation during his first foreign trip as Prime Minister to India or such as his advocating and providing a Thai government loan to Burma so they too could use the money to buy things from Shin Corporation). I don't think they were that upset with the auction purchase and, for some unknown reason, that's the case that was lamely chosen first to bring Shinawatra down. Like many of the wealthy, it seemed Shinawatra just thought what he did was just good business for himself and that concept overpowered any notion of duty to country.

Some argue that the Thais (and the Chinese and generally all asians) don't care at all about democracy or think in any great respect like a westerner with respect to democratic principles or personal rights. While the time isn't ripe now, I don't agree with that concept and eventually nobody is going to be able to prevent the average Thai from having his voice heard. Somewhat of the old notion that you can't keep them down on the farm once enough education and information is available to the majority. But we're nowhere near that now, at least in my view.

[Smiles]

" ... Its just my opinion, but I think the majority of Thai people probably have very little interest in democracy ... " And an accurate opinion (in my opinion :blackeye: )
The Thai so-called 'democracy' is a thin veneer covering an elitist, authoritarian, paternalistic, totally-corrupt-from-top-to-bottom class of high status power groups: the military, the police, the upper bureacracy, the rich elites, political factions, and unfortunately, the monarchy.
The veneer is in place to appease the Western World ... and it works on that level. In that sense Thailand is not a whole lot different than Indonesia, Cambodia, Maylasia, the Philipines and a number of other south east Asian countries.
But as a democracy, Thailand is a juvenile delinquent ... fighting amongst themselves for 'power' while ~ for instance ~ The People are left to fend for themselves in the midst of a very deep economic recession.

Unfortunately Bob above suffers a bit from a ubiquitous western vanity ... i.e. that "sooner or later" other, unluckier countries will see the light and strive to be, 'us'. Good luck waiting :salute:

One thing seems to have been missed, which is seen as Toxin's masterstroke.

It was reported on the BBC, but I don't think has appeared anywhere in the Thai press.

Dr T appealed directly to HM to intervene to stop further fighting and bloodshed (this was before the assasination attempt on SL). The lack of response has shown up how emasculated a certain gentleman has become, either too old or too feeble or too afraid the intervene; after all a few words from him would have all the reds and yellows crawling

If he did intervene, he could finish dr T at a stroke, by not doing so he has made Dr T more powerful.

For what it's worth, I'd say politically we're well and truly up shit creek without the proverbial paddle and heading straight for the falls.

On the government side you've got Abhisit Vejjajiva, the British-born, Eton and Oxford educated chinless wonder who is never going to either understand or be accepted by the majority of the Thai population; pulling his strings with the casting vote, although he was banned from government for five years for electoral fraud when part of the PPP (Thaksin) group, is Newin Chidchob who is as trustworthy as a rabid dog. In support is his foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, who was one of the leaders of the PAD's blockade of parliament and the leader of the airport blockade, who has advocated that as the majority of the population are too stupid to understand what they are doing control of the country should be in the hands of the educated elite (but only as long as he is part of that elite).

Their main achievements since taking office have been to copy all of Thaksin's main domestic policies, in addition to raising the tax on petrol by over 50 %, introducing a land and property tax, replacing pensions for government employees with a capital payment of up to 25 times their annual salary, and listing a dozen of the most popular Thai herbs as hazardous substances.

The only capable opposition leaders have been banned from government for five years, leaving Chalerm Yubamrung who many (even on his own side) would consider certifiable and whose sons' antics, with his protection and assistance, are infamous. He lacks any credibility, even among his supporters. Even if Thaksin Shinawatra were to return and be acquitted of all charges, and to get his money back, he has now polarized the country to such an extent that he would never be able to unite the country even if he were to win a direct majority in an election, which would mean either his assassination or yet another coup.

The only solution would have been to have had new elections either when Samak Sundaravej was dismissed by the Constitutional Court for presenting his "Cooking and Grumbling" TV show, (although only his driver was paid and the ingredients paid for - a total of 8,000 baht), or his totally ineffective successor Somchai Wongsawat (Thaksin's brother-in-law) was similarly dismissed; regrettably when application was made to do so the necessary Royal decree dissolving parliament could not be signed in time, allowing the Democrats to form a new coalition.

There seem to be only two people who could steer the boat away from the falls, but neither appears to be in a position to do so: one looks to be too old and too ill (and, according to some, too biased) while the other, who is as respected and accepted by the rural poor as she is by the urban elite, seems to be taking a back seat in case she upstages her brother at a crucial time.

Up shit creek? It seems that way - and if the leaders of the red shirts end up facing the courts before those of the yellow shirts, then I doubt if we'll make the falls before the fighting begins, the boat sinks, and it becomes every man for himself.

One thing seems to have been missed, which is seen as Toxin's masterstroke.

It was reported on the BBC, but I don't think has appeared anywhere in the Thai press.

Dr T appealed directly to HM to intervene to stop further fighting and bloodshed (this was before the assasination attempt on SL). The lack of response has shown up how emasculated a certain gentleman has become, either too old or too feeble or too afraid the intervene; after all a few words from him would have all the reds and yellows crawling

If he did intervene, he could finish dr T at a stroke, by not doing so he has made Dr T more powerful.

Thats one way of looking at it...or perhaps the gentlemen you refer to has maintained his revered position all these years by knowing when to get involved in politics and when not to, and not to be seen to take sides. He may also believe thats its best for him to let the political system learn to work itself out of the problems it has gotten itself into, rather than get involved unless its really necessary and the government have let matters get out of hand. He knows he wont be here forever to sort the problems out, and his successor may not be in a position to nursemaid the system.
Time will see how Thaksin comes out of these events, but at this stage he certainly doesnt look to have increased his power. If anybody has done well out of it, it seems to be Abhisit and the army for exercising restraint and avoiding bloodshed.
And it didnt escape the local english language press that supporters of Thaksin had petitioned The King to intervene:

Thaksin supporters petition HM the King
By The Nation
Published on April 14, 2009

A group of supporters of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, led by former Senate speaker Suchon Chaleekrua and retired Police General Salang Bunnag, yesterday submitted a petition to His Majesty the King seeking royal intervention to end the ongoing retaliation against protesters.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/read.php?newsid=30100471
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/read.php?newsid=30100423
However nobody else seems to see that petition in the same light as you do. And Thaksin is not stupid enough to try to use it to criticise The King for not heeding his request.

[PeterUK]

Time will see how Thaksin comes out of these events, but at this stage he certainly doesnt look to have increased his power. If anybody has done well out of it, it seems to be Abhisit and the army for exercising restraint and avoiding bloodshed.


Thaksin gambled all and lost last week. With his wealth and insatiable desire for power, he will probably remain a factor in Thai politics for some time to come, but too many Thais, ordinary as well as influential, loathe him for a return to power to be possible. The chances of the highest in the land lifting a finger to ease his predicament are - how can I put this? - zero. Abhisit certainly improved on his abysmal showing at the ASEAN conference in Pattaya and handled the Bangkok protest well, but who knows what behind-the-scenes accommodations he had to make with the military in the process; I'm far from convinced that he is still anything other than the puppet of more powerful forces. As always in Thai politics, where episodes of Grand Guignol alternate with comic opera, the future is highly unpredictable: the only safe bet is that it won't be calm.

Its just my opinion, but I think the majority of Thai people probably have very little interest in democracy. They are more likely to be interested in improving their standard of living .....

A few years ago I would have agreed with you, but not anymore. Previously the rural poor did not care which particular bunch of corrupt, self-serving politicians was in power, neither did the "elitist, authoritarian, paternalistic, totally-corrupt-from-top-to-bottom class of high status power groups: the military, the police, the upper bureacracy, the rich elites, political factions, and unfortunately, the monarchy", as the net result for both was the same - preservation of the status quo. Now, however, the rural poor have realised that they do have some power (not a lot, but some) and they will try to use it in spite of whatever constitutional or other obstacles are placed in their way. The others, on the other hand, have even less "interest in democracy" than before as it threatens their grip on power and wealth, hence the PAD (and the Democrat's) position that democracy is flawed (unless, of course, they happen to be the party in power).

[quote="dave_syd":wkhzvz5f]Its just my opinion, but I think the majority of Thai people probably have very little interest in democracy. They are more likely to be interested in improving their standard of living .....

A few years ago I would have agreed with you, but not anymore. Previously the rural poor did not care which particular bunch of corrupt, self-serving politicians was in power, neither did the "elitist, authoritarian, paternalistic, totally-corrupt-from-top-to-bottom class of high status power groups: the military, the police, the upper bureacracy, the rich elites, political factions, and unfortunately, the monarchy", as the net result for both was the same - preservation of the status quo. Now, however, the rural poor have realised that they do have some power (not a lot, but some) and they will try to use it in spite of whatever constitutional or other obstacles are placed in their way. The others, on the other hand, have even less "interest in democracy" than before as it threatens their grip on power and wealth, hence the PAD (and the Democrat's) position that democracy is flawed (unless, of course, they happen to be the party in power).[/quote:wkhzvz5f]

I agree the rural poor have come to realise that they have the voting power to improve their position, but as for democratic principles like free and fair elections and respect for the result of those elections, independence of the courts, equal application of laws to all people, the majority have little or no understanding or interest.

The birth, or abortion, of democracy is a very messy business.

Also, understand that the press is tightly controlled by the Yellow Shirts, so what you read from any Thai news organization is to be taken with a grain of salt. When news reports or reporters step out of line: it is out of business or off to jail with them...no bail.

And it all ended so quickly. The government offered buses to take the Red Shirts home, and the Red Shirts took the government up on the offer. So, who will run Thailand: will real democracy take hold or will the rich minority remain in control the decission is put off for another day, and Songkran was back in full swing!!!!

What a charming pug in your avatar I saw so many at Chatuchak that were extremely cute. I was very tempted.

I thought the press was under Thaksins control? Hmmm? It had to be taken away and shut down as he was using it as his personal propaganda machine, just as he was treating the entire country as his personal business enterprise. In fact he continued using it all during the crisis.

Good riddance to Thaksin, this is about so much more than democracy, it's about a man who is a murderous corrupt power freak, one that refused to go away and accept he has lost power. That he managed to buy support in the rurals only further serves to condemn him and distance his rule from anything that ever vaguely approached democracy.

I think we may now see the way to real democracy of the kind the Thais deserve. Thaksin must be hounded and destroyed.

BTW I think people tend to get confused about power in Thailand and a classic case concerns he who may not be named. Its fiction perpetuated by certain American writers of just that, fictitious drivel.

[Smiles]

" ... I think we may now see the way to real democracy of the kind the Thais deserve ... "
After all these years Cedric, I really have to ask: what planet are you from?

Planet Zogg no doubt.

However despite your opinion I believe the people of Thailand are demanding their say and getting it. Democracy is not the be all and end all of a country being able to run happily and successfully, but I strongly believe the Thai people at this time will not settle for anything less.

Under Prime minister Abhisit I believe they are on to a good start. Under Thaksin it was shaky.

You have to ask yourself where Thailand would've been in thirty years from now under Thaksin. It would have been nothing short of a dictatorship, the people were right to throw him out, as foreign as that was to most in the West and their notion of how democracy is meant to work. We have all seen Thaksin's true colours now, plainly. Small mercies he never had the armies support or that of the police. I salute the courage of the Thais who have wrestled their country back from the brink of control from a mad tyrant and squashed his last pathetic attempt at a come back.

That article Jinks posted is spot on, what the country needs more than anything is unity and the proper leadership that will be able to achieve this and put it onto the path for lasting stability. We wait with baited breath to see if Abhist can rise to that challenge. I believe he can. I also believe that once unity is achieved democracy will flourish unhindered fully supported by all not least by he who will still not be named.