Calculating the cost of PAD for each Thai citizen

[Beachlover]

It's a bit horrific watching the kind of damage they are doing to the country.

I did some rough calculations you may find interesting:

GDP:

- Thailand earns about 6% of its GDP from tourism annually

- TAT spokesperson said they expected a 30% reduction in tourists in the coming high season... I would be surprised if it wasn't less.

- Assuming this... it means PAD has, in one fell swoop, decreased the nation's GDP by 2%

GDP Per capita:

- Thailand has 65 million people

- GDP per capita is around USD$7,900 / 276,500 baht

- 2% reduction = an average loss of USD$158 / 5,530 baht per person

Here's another way to calculate the loss... dollar wise:

- I heard somewhere that they were expecting 2 million tourists in the upcoming high season.

- Assume this is reduced by 30% (600,000 tourists)

- Assume (conservatively) each tourist spends $1,000 (very conservative estimate)

- Total expenditure of 600,000 lost tourists would have been USD$600 million = 21 billion baht.

Therefore, per capita:

- Thailand has 65 million people

- Therefore, per capita, a loss of 600,000 tourists means an average loss of USD$323 / 11,000 baht per person!

Ok... so I know there's a 5,000 baht difference between the 2 different calculation methods above, but they are based on reasonable assumptions.

The point is to demonstrate that this action has in effect, cost each of Thailand's 65 million citizens an average of between 5,000 to 10,000 baht (possibly more) in income over the coming year. Not good hey?

Remember I'm no mathmatician or economist... these figures are based on a few assumptions so forecasts are not going to be entirely accurate. But I think it's fair to say the figures are in the region of being correct.

And this doesn't include the further long-term losses from loss of business confidence turning away foreign investors.

In the short term... this will also be catastrophic for Bangkok.... no inbound/outbound air freight? No courier access? Incoming supply of tourists cut off?

It makes me wonder... there must be some cases where aircraft couldn't possibly be disallowed from flying? Medical evacuations? Transplant couriers?

Thousands of Americans are pissed because they won't make it home for Thanksgiving... what about people travelling to weddings? Funerals? To see dying loved ones for the last time? Exams?

I wonder if PAD calculated all this and fully understood the gravity of their actions before they made the decision to blockade 2 airports. I wonder of all the smiling, pumped up PAD protesters understand the effect of the actions they are assisting in.

I guess only time will tell if the collateral damage was worthwhile.

It's a bit horrific watching the kind of damage they are doing to the country.

I did some rough calculations you may find interesting:
The point is to demonstrate that this action has in effect, cost each of Thailand's 65 million citizens an average of between 5,000 to 10,000 baht (possibly more) in income over the coming year. Not good hey?
Remember I'm no mathmatician or economist....

You certainly are no economist, for when making your assumptions you fail to acknowledge that only a small minority of Thais actually benefit from the tourism industry and many would love to be in a position where they earn 5000 - 10,000 Baht a year let alone see their income effectively drop by that amount.

For certain the current problems and lack of confidence will hit the tourism industry hard but the loss of revenue from tourism will not affect the majority of Thai citizens.

I am sure that people stuck in Thailand are quite annoyed at not being able to leave through the two major airports but this situation has been building up for many months and anyone planning a trip should have taken into account the possibilty of this inevitable clash causing problems. I am equally certain that genuine medical emergency flights would be permitted to leave from the military sector of DM airport as that sector of the airport is operating normally and I think you do a grave injustice to the Thais to consider otherwise.

Unfortunately the problems will continue until the current corrupt regime who are no more than Khun T's puppets are removed, but in the next few years as age takes its toll on respected figures there will be a lot worse to come and then you will have real cause to worry about the Kingdom's future.

[anakot]

Blah blah blah
Just get the fuckers out of the airports!!

Beachlover may be no economist, Naughty but Nuts, but clearly neither are you.

"Many (Thais) would love to be in a position where they earn 5000 - 10,000 Baht a year " - just how many Thais earn 400 baht a month? The minimum wage is 10 times that.

"the loss of revenue from tourism will not affect the majority of Thai citizens." Not directly, but you are overlooking the loss of investor confidence Beachlover referred to, building projects, labourers' jobs, etc.

"I am equally certain....I think you do a grave injustice to the Thais to consider otherwise" Certain based on what? Your personal opinion?

"the problems will continue until the current corrupt regime who are no more than Khun T's puppets are removed" And then it will end, as if by magic? To be replaced by what, headed by who?

What a load of unadalterated crap.

[Beachlover]

It's a bit horrific watching the kind of damage they are doing to the country.

I did some rough calculations you may find interesting:
The point is to demonstrate that this action has in effect, cost each of Thailand's 65 million citizens an average of between 5,000 to 10,000 baht (possibly more) in income over the coming year. Not good hey?
Remember I'm no mathmatician or economist....

You certainly are no economist, for when making your assumptions you fail to acknowledge that only a small minority of Thais actually benefit from the tourism industry and many would love to be in a position where they earn 5000 - 10,000 Baht a year let alone see their income effectively drop by that amount.

For certain the current problems and lack of confidence will hit the tourism industry hard but the loss of revenue from tourism will not affect the majority of Thai citizens.

I am sure that people stuck in Thailand are quite annoyed at not being able to leave through the two major airports but this situation has been building up for many months and anyone planning a trip should have taken into account the possibilty of this inevitable clash causing problems. I am equally certain that genuine medical emergency flights would be permitted to leave from the military sector of DM airport as that sector of the airport is operating normally and I think you do a grave injustice to the Thais to consider otherwise.

Unfortunately the problems will continue until the current corrupt regime who are no more than Khun T's puppets are removed, but in the next few years as age takes its toll on respected figures there will be a lot worse to come and then you will have real cause to worry about the Kingdom's future.

Naughty but nice, a lot of Thais are saying they don't care the airports are closed because they don't use them at all... but this just shows how little they understand the economy and the effect of the airport closures on flow of goods and tourists etc.

I think your ignorance is just as bad.

"you fail to acknowledge that only a small minority of Thais actually benefit from the tourism industry" - I'm not sure you realise how the economy works at all, mate.

Even those who don't work directly for the tourism industry suffer from the flow on effect. People in the tourism industry are affected first. They lack money... so businesses that supply the tourism businesses (eg. hotel fitout contractors) suffer... individuals who own these business or who lose their jobs won't have as much money, so they buy less and more businesses are affected and so on.

Even Mums and Dads who don't work are affected. How will little Nong send money home when he doesn't have a job? How will Nit send money home when his restaurant is insolvent?

You'll notice I use the words "ON AVERAGE"... but still any reader with half a brain should realise I don't mean each and every Thai will lose exactly that amount.

The amount lost is in related to their income level and how directly related their source of cashflow is with the tourism industry. With the flow on effect, even those who are insulated by several layers will be affected... it just takes a little longer.

I don't doubt the PAD's cause may possibly be a good one... but it's also important to demonstrate the cost of their actions.

[bucknaway]

It can also be that many Thai do not like to discuss these things with Non-Thai.

If you have hello, Goodbye, Nice Day and Where you go conversations with them and then want to talk politics...... You may not get very far. Chances are that they do not want to hear from you what you think is wrong with Thailand and depending on their point of view that they share with you could bring them problems should others learn of their thoughts.

I don't doubt the PAD's cause may possibly be a good one...

On what grounds? Dis-enfranchising anyone who does not vote for them, which is their main aim?

[Beachlover]

It can also be that many Thai do not like to discuss these things with Non-Thai.

If you have hello, Goodbye, Nice Day and Where you go conversations with them and then want to talk politics...... You may not get very far. Chances are that they do not want to hear from you what you think is wrong with Thailand and depending on their point of view that they share with you could bring them problems should others learn of their thoughts.

That's true... there is loss of face there.

Unfortunately Westerners can be very critical of things they see in a vocal and untactful way.... and this is a total turn off.

[Beachlover]

I don't doubt the PAD's cause may possibly be a good one...

On what grounds? Dis-enfranchising anyone who does not vote for them, which is their main aim?

I have a neutral opinion of PAD... that's why I said it "might possibly be a good" cause.... or not.

I don't understand the situation enough to really have a valid opinion, except that it doesn't justify the damage their causing.

It's a classic case of the end DOES NOT justify the means.

Beachlover may be no economist, Naughty but Nuts, but clearly neither are you.

"Many (Thais) would love to be in a position where they earn 5000 - 10,000 Baht a year " - just how many Thais earn 400 baht a month? The minimum wage is 10 times that.

"the loss of revenue from tourism will not affect the majority of Thai citizens." Not directly, but you are overlooking the loss of investor confidence Beachlover referred to, building projects, labourers' jobs, etc.

"I am equally certain....I think you do a grave injustice to the Thais to consider otherwise" Certain based on what? Your personal opinion?

"the problems will continue until the current corrupt regime who are no more than Khun T's puppets are removed" And then it will end, as if by magic? To be replaced by what, headed by who?

What a load of unadalterated crap.

Come on now GF, don't hold back, why don't you tell NBN your opinion of what you really think of his comments. http://i281.photobucket.com/albums/kk216/ThaiRakThai/laughing4.gif


Cheers,


George.

[Beachlover]

Hey!

My rough mental predictions weren't so far off!

I estimated the PAD's actions would cost Thailand about 2% of its GDP. Bangkok Post reports the crisis will likely reduce Thailand's GDP by 1.5%

http://www.bangkokpost.com/291108_News/ ... news04.php (http://www.bangkokpost.com/291108_News/29Nov2008_news04.php)

Amazing that a decision made by a few heads, and carried out by several thousand people will bring suffering to so many.

[Beachlover]

It's a bit horrific watching the kind of damage they are doing to the country.

I did some rough calculations you may find interesting:
The point is to demonstrate that this action has in effect, cost each of Thailand's 65 million citizens an average of between 5,000 to 10,000 baht (possibly more) in income over the coming year. Not good hey?
Remember I'm no mathmatician or economist....

You certainly are no economist, for when making your assumptions you fail to acknowledge that only a small minority of Thais actually benefit from the tourism industry and many would love to be in a position where they earn 5000 - 10,000 Baht a year let alone see their income effectively drop by that amount.

For certain the current problems and lack of confidence will hit the tourism industry hard but the loss of revenue from tourism will not affect the majority of Thai citizens.

I am sure that people stuck in Thailand are quite annoyed at not being able to leave through the two major airports but this situation has been building up for many months and anyone planning a trip should have taken into account the possibilty of this inevitable clash causing problems. I am equally certain that genuine medical emergency flights would be permitted to leave from the military sector of DM airport as that sector of the airport is operating normally and I think you do a grave injustice to the Thais to consider otherwise.

Unfortunately the problems will continue until the current corrupt regime who are no more than Khun T's puppets are removed, but in the next few years as age takes its toll on respected figures there will be a lot worse to come and then you will have real cause to worry about the Kingdom's future.

Example:

The occupation of the airports has had severe economic effects. Sudjit Intharathaiwong, deputy secretary general of the Board of Investment, said 200,000 workers in the electronics assembly plants around Bangkok have been laid off because of the lack of transport to import raw materials and export computer chips and other electonic parts. (with reports from AFP)


http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/t ... ?id=132358 (http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/topstories.php?id=132358)

In Australia... when 1,000 people lose their jobs it makes front page headlines. In Bangkok, they've just had to lay off 200,000 workers due to the crisis.