November 5th, 2008, 01:39
The following is from a long-time Western commentator on SE Asia, Michael Backman (and spot the howler)
THINGS in Thailand are a mess тАФ a big, intractable mess. And things will get worse before they get better. How much worse? It's hard to say. But unless a breakthrough can be found to the current political stalemate, another military coup seems inevitable. Which means that politically, Thailand is Asia's least-prepared country to withstand the economic downturn. Thailand's economy is more vulnerable than most to a US slowdown. It is a big exporter to the US. Foreign investment, too, will slide. Why buy an asset now in Thailand with that country's poor legal protection for investors and corruption when assets are going cheaply in the US and Europe, where investors receive excellent legal protection?
It's all a terrible pity. For a while, Thailand looked like it had finally evolved into a stable democracy. But now тАФ as many Thais will tell you тАФ the country has gone backwards 20 years. The problem in a nutshell is that the Thai elite has split. There is the Thaksin camp: the followers of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. And there is the anti-Thaksin camp: essentially those allied to King Bhumibol Adulyadej and his key adviser, General Prem Tinsulanonda, who heads the Privy Council. Neither camp is prepared to give ground. There's no generosity of spirit between them, just loathing and contempt.
The present Government in its various forms has won two elections but still lacks legitimacy. It is seen as a proxy for Thaksin. Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, appointed in September, is married to Thaksin's brother. The family connection alone means his days are numbered, and it will be a miracle if he survives into next year. Somchai will be given a little breathing space as the cremation ceremony for the King's sister (she died in January) will be held from November 14 to 19, when everything can be expected to quieten down in Bangkok out of respect for the royal family. But, come November 20, the political crisis will be back in full swing. Last month protesters attempted to hold 320 parliamentarians and senators hostage inside the Parliament building, cutting off power. Somchai escaped by jumping a back fence.
Why does Thaksin evoke such strong emotions? As prime minister, he sought to portray himself as the "father of the nation", and as a source of power separate from the King. The King's protectors saw him as attempting to usurp the King. Thaksin came to office as a billionaire businessman and essentially bankrolled himself to power. The nouveau riche usurper was seen as a fundamental threat to the Thai aristocracy, which, thanks to its polygamous past, is very large. Furthermore, Thaksin used his position to increase his wealth. Quite why this is so upsetting in the Thai context is a mystery. Probably the aristocrats felt they were being cut out of too many deals. In September 2006, Thaksin was ousted in a coup d'etat. It was the first non-constitutional change of government in 15 years and it occurred after a year of political deadlock.
The military cancelled the upcoming elections, suspended the constitution, dissolved parliament and arrested cabinet members. It is widely believed that the coup was either organised or sanctioned by General Prem, thereby implying the implicit support of the King. Prem has denied any involvement. Elections were held in 2007, but unfortunately for Prem and his supporters, the wrong party emerged victorious тАФ a new party but one that largely was comprised of the remnants of Thaksin's party, which had been dismantled for legal reasons. Since then, both Thaksin and his wife have been charged and found guilty of corruption. The fact that this could have happened while a Government largely seen as a proxy for Thaksin was in office shows how split Thailand's elite has become: the anti-Thaksin forces don't have enough power to be in government but they do have enough power to have Thaksin charged and found guilty. He would now be in jail had he not fled to London.
With all this upheaval, the Democrat Party тАФ the safe, middle-class party тАФ should be making hay, but it isn't. Its voice isn't being heard in all the ruckus, and party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is perhaps best summed up as well liked but ineffectual. Further complicating the picture is the age of both Prem and the King. Prem is 88. The King is 81 and in poor health. Thaksin, on the other hand, is 59. The aristocrats want to control the future institutional shape of Thailand but they are running out of time.
Anti-Thaksin protesters have blockaded Government House, where the prime minister's office is located, since late August. Pro-Thaksin forces threw grenades at the protesters last week. The Parliament is deadlocked. The military is split. And there is no single political figure able to force a breakthrough. New elections will simply see another proxy Thaksin government installed, which will please most Thais, but not the bulk of the Bangkok electorate and the royalist part of the elite.
So another coup by that part of the military allied to Prem is on the cards. When? December 24 or thereabouts seems a good date. The royal cremation ceremony will be over and the Western world and its media will be preoccupied with Christmas.
THINGS in Thailand are a mess тАФ a big, intractable mess. And things will get worse before they get better. How much worse? It's hard to say. But unless a breakthrough can be found to the current political stalemate, another military coup seems inevitable. Which means that politically, Thailand is Asia's least-prepared country to withstand the economic downturn. Thailand's economy is more vulnerable than most to a US slowdown. It is a big exporter to the US. Foreign investment, too, will slide. Why buy an asset now in Thailand with that country's poor legal protection for investors and corruption when assets are going cheaply in the US and Europe, where investors receive excellent legal protection?
It's all a terrible pity. For a while, Thailand looked like it had finally evolved into a stable democracy. But now тАФ as many Thais will tell you тАФ the country has gone backwards 20 years. The problem in a nutshell is that the Thai elite has split. There is the Thaksin camp: the followers of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. And there is the anti-Thaksin camp: essentially those allied to King Bhumibol Adulyadej and his key adviser, General Prem Tinsulanonda, who heads the Privy Council. Neither camp is prepared to give ground. There's no generosity of spirit between them, just loathing and contempt.
The present Government in its various forms has won two elections but still lacks legitimacy. It is seen as a proxy for Thaksin. Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, appointed in September, is married to Thaksin's brother. The family connection alone means his days are numbered, and it will be a miracle if he survives into next year. Somchai will be given a little breathing space as the cremation ceremony for the King's sister (she died in January) will be held from November 14 to 19, when everything can be expected to quieten down in Bangkok out of respect for the royal family. But, come November 20, the political crisis will be back in full swing. Last month protesters attempted to hold 320 parliamentarians and senators hostage inside the Parliament building, cutting off power. Somchai escaped by jumping a back fence.
Why does Thaksin evoke such strong emotions? As prime minister, he sought to portray himself as the "father of the nation", and as a source of power separate from the King. The King's protectors saw him as attempting to usurp the King. Thaksin came to office as a billionaire businessman and essentially bankrolled himself to power. The nouveau riche usurper was seen as a fundamental threat to the Thai aristocracy, which, thanks to its polygamous past, is very large. Furthermore, Thaksin used his position to increase his wealth. Quite why this is so upsetting in the Thai context is a mystery. Probably the aristocrats felt they were being cut out of too many deals. In September 2006, Thaksin was ousted in a coup d'etat. It was the first non-constitutional change of government in 15 years and it occurred after a year of political deadlock.
The military cancelled the upcoming elections, suspended the constitution, dissolved parliament and arrested cabinet members. It is widely believed that the coup was either organised or sanctioned by General Prem, thereby implying the implicit support of the King. Prem has denied any involvement. Elections were held in 2007, but unfortunately for Prem and his supporters, the wrong party emerged victorious тАФ a new party but one that largely was comprised of the remnants of Thaksin's party, which had been dismantled for legal reasons. Since then, both Thaksin and his wife have been charged and found guilty of corruption. The fact that this could have happened while a Government largely seen as a proxy for Thaksin was in office shows how split Thailand's elite has become: the anti-Thaksin forces don't have enough power to be in government but they do have enough power to have Thaksin charged and found guilty. He would now be in jail had he not fled to London.
With all this upheaval, the Democrat Party тАФ the safe, middle-class party тАФ should be making hay, but it isn't. Its voice isn't being heard in all the ruckus, and party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is perhaps best summed up as well liked but ineffectual. Further complicating the picture is the age of both Prem and the King. Prem is 88. The King is 81 and in poor health. Thaksin, on the other hand, is 59. The aristocrats want to control the future institutional shape of Thailand but they are running out of time.
Anti-Thaksin protesters have blockaded Government House, where the prime minister's office is located, since late August. Pro-Thaksin forces threw grenades at the protesters last week. The Parliament is deadlocked. The military is split. And there is no single political figure able to force a breakthrough. New elections will simply see another proxy Thaksin government installed, which will please most Thais, but not the bulk of the Bangkok electorate and the royalist part of the elite.
So another coup by that part of the military allied to Prem is on the cards. When? December 24 or thereabouts seems a good date. The royal cremation ceremony will be over and the Western world and its media will be preoccupied with Christmas.