Thailand recession? Yes? No?

Thai bankers were congratulating themselves recently on having avoided the global meltdown. However the prospects for Thailand are not that good, especially as the country is dependent on export industries and tourism. Another perspective in a foreign newspaper excerpt is -
The economy is tanking. Thailand, once a growth engine of Asia, is forecast to expand at just 1 per cent next year according to Citigroup, its worst performance since the 1997 crisis. Tourism, which employs nearly 10% of Thais, is expected to fall by a third as visitors are scared off by pictures of machete-wielding protesters on the streets of Bangkok. A resolution appears further away than ever. Even a snap election could be difficult if, as expected, the Constitutional Court orders the dissolution of the PPP for electoral fraud. Fresh elections are unlikely before the year's end. That's because Thailand must first conduct funeral rites for the King's sister, then celebrate the King's birthday after which it will host an ASEAN leaders' conference in mid-December

[thrillbill]

Going by the true meaning of a "recession" the answer is no. Economic slow down, YES.

The negative impact of a drop in tourism is offset by demand for Thai agricultural products, which continues high and is unlikely to be affected by the global slowdown. However, maunufacturing and services were vulnerable even before the slowdown and the rise in the baht. Demand will fall and foreign companies may well start closing Thai factories and consolidating production in China. Manufactured products made by Thai companies won't sell on global markets as quality is too low. Thailand should have been investing in upgrading the skills of its workforce during the boom years so that it had something more to offer than cheap labour.

So that's a yes to recession from me.

Thailand should have been investing in upgrading the skills of its workforce during the boom years so that it had something more to offer than cheap labour.

Agreed.

The Thaksin government raised the school leaving age to 15 (9 years) from the previous 12, and also introduced a system of student loans so that students could afford to remain in the education system - not popular moves with some of the "powers that be" (or, more accurately, would like to be), who feel threatened by any move to change the status quo.