It's Official, A New Depression

[rincondog]

The Dow lost 128 points, giving the blue chips an eight-day loss of just under 2,400, or 22.1 percent. The average had its worst week on record in both point and percentage terms. The Standard & Poor's 500 index, the indicator most watched by market professionals, posted its worst weekly run since 1933.

The latest loss also means the Dow is down 40.3 percent since reaching a record high close of 14,164.53 a year ago, on Oct. 9, 2007. The S&P 500, which reached its high of 1,565.15 the same day, is down 42.5 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081010/ap_ ... all_street (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081010/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street)

....The Standard & Poor's 500 index, the indicator most watched by market professionals, posted its worst weekly run since 1933.....


Well, I'm certainly depressed. :sad1:

Where's this all going to end?
What a wonderful legacy George Bush has left the world.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eih67rlGNhU

Since the US is not yet, technically, in a recession, to suggest a Depression seems somewhat premature. I didn't see anything in the original post to suggest "official" at all. However one impact is almost certainly a drop in tourism, including Thailand, and a lessening in the ability of people to retire as early as they have been with sufficient money to "up sticks" and relocate to Thailand. Chao Na must be rubbing his gritty little knuckles together with glee

If it means you having to go back from whence you've come, I'll dance a fucking Irish jig.

[Wesley]

I think once the panic is over it will lighten up considerably, it really depends on who looses and how much is lost . if they don't panic and hold on to whht they have they may very well not loose a lot. If they panic and run with what they have it wil be bad. Since its a global thing its going to be harder for a bad US makrket to kill everyone else. The goverment is still in the hopeful mood if the damn CNN talking heads would shut up it would likely get better, fairly quickly. if you cry the sky is falling long engough, after a while they will believe you.

[Wesley]

....The Standard & Poor's 500 index, the indicator most watched by market professionals, posted its worst weekly run since 1933.....


Well, I'm certainly depressed. :sad1:

Where's this all going to end?
What a wonderful legacy George Bush has left the world.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eih67rlGNhU

Its not all a Geoerge Bush legacy, he did not do all this on his own, this has ben coming since deregulation of thr banking industry 10 yers ago. if you have No one watching the chicken coop, you end up with less hens.

Wes

There is no sky. It is only an illusion.

[Lunchtime O'Booze]

"Since the US is not yet, technically, in a recession, to suggest a Depression seems somewhat premature."..when that first nuclear bomb drops Homitern will claim the people aren't dead until officially declared to be no longer breathing !!:cheers:

when that first nuclear bomb drops Homitern will claim the people aren't dead until officially declared to be no longer breathing !!Will I be able to place a bet on that event via Intrade? At the moment they haven't yet paid out on the US entering a recession. The odds at the moment are Even Money by the end of 2008, 4:1 on in 2009 - http://www.intrade.com/index.jsp?reques ... nID=508654 (http://www.intrade.com/index.jsp?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=508654)

You can read the Intrade rules about the definition of a recession via the drop-down towards the top of the page

But back to that first nuclear bomb - dammit - it's not on the list of potential trades ( http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/# ). Could you please take it up with them, Doris! (As Miranda Priestley said in The Devil Wears Prada, "That is not a question"

[Wesley]

There is no sky. It is only an illusion.

Hence, the idiom, there is a sky at all that might actually fall, We can only pollute it until it is too heavy to breath.

Wes

[Khor tose]

There is no sky. It is only an illusion.

"But how do I know that there is not something different altogether from the objects I have now enumerated, of which it is impossible to entertain the slightest doubt? Is there not a God, or some being, by whatever name I may designate him, who causes these thoughts to arise in my mind ? But why suppose such a being, for it may be I myself am capable of producing them? Am I, then, at least not something? But I before denied that I possessed senses or a body; I hesitate, however, for what follows from that? Am I so dependent on the body and the senses that without these I cannot exist? But I had the persuasion that there was absolutely nothing in the world, that there was no sky and no earth, neither minds nor bodies; was I not, therefore, at the same time, persuaded that I did not exist? Far from it; I assuredly existed, since I was persuaded. But there is I know not what being, who is possessed at once of the highest power and the deepest cunning, who is constantly employing all his ingenuity in deceiving me. Doubtless, then, I exist, since I am deceived; and, let him deceive me as he may, he can never bring it about that I am nothing, so long as I shall be conscious that I am something. So that it must, in fine, be maintained, all things being maturely and carefully considered, that this proposition (pronunciatum ) I am, I exist, is necessarily true each time it is expressed by me, or conceived in my mind". Meditation-Descartes

[Beachlover]

The Dow lost 128 points, giving the blue chips an eight-day loss of just under 2,400, or 22.1 percent. The average had its worst week on record in both point and percentage terms. The Standard & Poor's 500 index, the indicator most watched by market professionals, posted its worst weekly run since 1933.

The latest loss also means the Dow is down 40.3 percent since reaching a record high close of 14,164.53 a year ago, on Oct. 9, 2007. The S&P 500, which reached its high of 1,565.15 the same day, is down 42.5 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081010/ap_ ... all_street (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081010/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street)

"It's official"... Load of crap and far from it.

It's hard to predict how this is going to end because something like this has never happened before. It's not going to recover straight away... but it could all recover within 1-2 years.... or it might take 5 years.

I will say however, that the US economy is not in great state... and there's a lot of people there who aren't prepared for something like this.

Interestingly, there are some countries, like China, who couldn't care less what is going on. If anything, all this is an opportunity for them.

The next few decades will be interesting. Who knows... maybe soon, people in Thailand may decide that learning Chinese (as opposed to English) is a way out of poverty! And English might be the "lesser" spoken language.

[rincondog]

Beachlover:

Interestingly, there are some countries, like China, who couldn't care less what is going on. If anything, all this is an opportunity for them.

The Chinese are very reliant on exports, so they will be directly affected by a drop off in demand. Granted they are a large enough country, in population, to be self sustaining to some degree, however, the conversion to that status would take time. Social unrest in a depressed Chinese economy is a real fear among the government. The last thing the Chinese want is a major recession/depression.

The last thing the Chinese want is a major recession/depression.So how do you think they'll feel about your pronouncement "It's official ..."

if you have No one watching the chicken coop, you end up with less hens.

No one has been watching the chicken coup. That is because the Republican right, for votes, and the talking head networks, to vie for ratings, both from an ignorant electorate, have kept the national focus for the past twenty years on trivial issues.

if you have No one watching the chicken coop, you end up with less hens.

No one has been watching the chicken coup. That is because the Republican right, for votes, and the talking head networks, to vie for ratings, both from an ignorant electorate, have kept the national focus for the past twenty years on trivial issues.

... meanwhile dismantling the structures of free democracy with the excuse of the war against terror. Orwell becomes truer every day.

if you have No one watching the chicken coop, you end up with less hens.No one has been watching the chicken coup. That is because the Republican right, for votes, and the talking head networks, to vie for ratings, both from an ignorant electorate, have kept the national focus for the past twenty years on trivial issues.... meanwhile dismantling the structures of free democracy with the excuse of the war against terror. Orwell becomes truer every day.I hope someone has let CNBC know

[rincondog]

Re: Au Contraire
rincondog wrote:
The last thing the Chinese want is a major recession/depression.
Homitern:

So how do you think they'll feel about your pronouncement "It's official ..."


I would doubt that the Chinese are foolish enough to pay any attention to anything posted on a gay Thailand forum.

I would doubt that the Chinese are foolish enough to pay any attention to anything posted on a gay Thailand forum.Particularly by someone who thinks of himself as a dog

[rincondog]

Homiturd, you seem to lack knowledge of Chinese views on the dog.



Years of the Dog

Eleventh in the cycle, Dog Years follow the Rooster years and recur every twelfth year. The Chinese New Year does not fall on a specific date, so it is essential to check the calendar to find the exact date on which each Dog Year actually begins.

1910*1922*1934*1946*1958*1970*1982*1994*2006

THE SIGN OF THE DOG

Dogs can be a bit overwhelming, due in part to their attentive natures. They can march in and take control of a situation, even when it doesnтАЩt involve them directly. This can lead people to think Dogs are nosy or gossipy, but in reality, he just means well. Money and status donтАЩt matter to the Dog. He is more concerned with the welfare of his family and friends and will do whatever it takes to help them out of a tight squeeze or a rough spot. Once Dogs determine a subject of interest, they usually master that before taking off for a new adventure. They like to finish what they start. They are honest and trustworthy people, ethically strong and morally kept. They make loyal friends and companions.

Homiturd, you seem to lack knowledge of Chinese views on the dog .... They make loyal friends and companions.So, you're saying they are followers, not leaders. That is precisely the point I was making

[rincondog]

Once Dogs determine a subject of interest, they usually master that before taking off for a new adventure. They like to finish what they start.

Dont' try to get into a pissing match, especially with a dog.

[cottmann]

"Since the US is not yet, technically, in a recession, to suggest a Depression seems somewhat premature."..when that first nuclear bomb drops Homitern will claim the people aren't dead until officially declared to be no longer breathing !!:cheers:

Well, it does appear at least that the US is officially in recession: "United States in recession: Federal Reserve official."

IT'S now unambiguously clear the US economy is in retreat, as inflationary pressures "have substantially abated," a veteran Federal Reserve official says. The US economy appears to be in a recession," Federal Reserve Bank of San Franciso president Janet Yellen said. As financial market troubles have mounted, data indicate "the economy was weaker than expected" and was likely flat for the third quarter, while for the fourth quarter, activity appears to be "weaker yet, with an outright contraction quite likely".
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/bu ... 43,00.html (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24500594-643,00.html)

Well, it does appear at least that the US is officially in recession: "United States in recession: Federal Reserve official."I checked - Intrade haven't paid out on that yet and are still taking bets. The current odds are -
* The US to go into recession during 2008 - slightly less than even money
* The US to go into recession during 2009 - 1 to 4 on

I suggest you might put your money where someone else's mouth is - http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/#

... officially in recession

... officially in recessionSadly, WhiteDesire, saying it doesn't make it true. I assume your account at Intrade is loaded up with bets on the US being in recession in 2008 - they're still offering even money?

So the Chinese are going to bail our asses out?
The Great Chinese Economic Miracle is just another bubble going POP. Its a fraud. They make poison toys, poison milk and shoddy buildings. The whole house of cards is just one big low wage factory for Walmart.
Its imploding already.
Factories closing all around the Pearl River delta, soaring rates of non-performing loans, Shanghai stocks off 70% from their highs.....

Despite all the statements, neither the US nor the UK are officially in a recession. Here are the latest Intrade betting odds that either will be in a recession by year end -

[Lunchtime O'Booze]

if you have No one watching the chicken coop, you end up with less hens.

No one has been watching the chicken coup. That is because the Republican right, for votes, and the talking head networks, to vie for ratings, both from an ignorant electorate, have kept the national focus for the past twenty years on trivial issues.

your've nailed it ArNolD !

all those small right wing nutbags like the Christian Right have been courted by the moderate Republicans to further their political ambitions and now it's got out of control as each wacky group thinks it is all powerful and they're at each other's throats ,as was bound to happen. When you have Republican commentators dissing Sarah Palin and questioning why McCain would choose (or allow to have imposed upon him) a complete nimbat ..it's proably the most dangerous of times (combined with a terrifying recession).

That's why I have disguised myself as the average American Soccer Mum.

[rincondog]

Lunchtime:
That's why I have disguised myself as the average American Soccer Mum.

You've definitely nailed the look.

....all those small right wing nutbags like the Christian Right have been courted by the moderate Republicans to further their political ambitions and now it's got out of control as each wacky group thinks it is all powerful and they're at each other's throats .....

One of the most sensible posts you've ever made Boozy. :drunken: