any advice on Exchange rates?

I'm starting to plan my trip to Thailand next year. One major concern were airfares but I see that they are coming down as the price of oil drops, not much of a concern now. I've also been watching exchange rates and noticed over the past few weeks, that the despite the financial problems in the US, the USD seems quite strong, but the CDN dollar and other currencies are plummeting.

My knowledge of financial markets and exchange rates is limited to what I see on TV, so I'm not really sure what to anticipate in the months ahead. I have a few questions that maybe some of the more seasoned travelers and/or investors/bankers might be able shed some light on; I appreciate your input.

Would it be better to buy Thai baht now or will currencies stabilize and/or bounce back in the coming months? This morning 1CDN=29TBH, 1USD=34TBH 1USD=0.83CD. I've read and heard opinions that it'll take 12 to 18 months for things to stabilize in the US and around the world, could this get worse?

Why, despite the financial problems in the US, is the USD apparently still so strong and other currencies doing so poorly? I understand that markets in other countries are dependent on the US market, but news at home has suggested that the Canadian economy, while dependent on the US, won't suffer much. I would have thought that with the US deficit it would be the US dollar that would have suffered. I know it's more complicated than that, but thought I would throw it out there anyway.

and please, simple answers, my roots are brunette but should be blonde.

[jolyjacktar]

I looked at the British Pound today on the Bangkok Bank rate and it had fallen to 56. If it keeps going in a downward direction i will not be holidaying in Thailand. Seems like since last year for evey ┬г100 spent its a loss of 1000bt, not good.
Still thats life folks

[mahjongguy]

There are two components to every exchange rate; as you gaze into your crystal ball you need to consider the strength of your currency as well as the strength of the baht. [If you have that ability, please do let me know.]

The actions taken to prop up the US banking system (e.g. Fed rate down to 1.5%) will result in a weaker dollar. But what about the baht? If it weakens as well (due to falling exports, big drop in tourists) then the exchange rate may not move very much at all.

There's no way to time your purchase of baht; you'd just be guessing. And anyway, unless you have a bank account in Thailand, how would you buy baht before you get here? Go to your local Thomas Cook and exchange for baht notes and bring them over in your pocket? The fees are outrageous.

If anyone here was smart enough to tell you where the dollar will be in 6 months they'd be as rich as Warren Buffett.

If you tried to lock in todays rate by bying a bunch of Bhat you could miss out on any further appreciation of the $ vs the bhat even though you protect yourself against further loss.

But consider: how much are you planning to spend in Thailand and how much would your potential saving be if the dollar dropped say 10%? $100? $200?
Is it really worth fussing about?

... on the stock market: "It will fluctuate". When he said that, exchange rates were fixed. Had they been floating (like the stock market) no doubt he would have given the same answer

The reason for the USD going-up is because US Government is borrowing money from the foreign markets to finance it's 700 Billon bail-out plan. Therefore, there is a demand for the USD in the global markets. It is very temporary upwards movement. Also, the investors are buying up the US Treasury bills as safe haven. In order to do that they need to buy US Dollars. So there is demand for USD.

Why the Canadian Dollar is under presure is due to the fact the Canadian Economy is natural resources based. So when the oil, gold, steel and other natural resources come down in the market it directly affects the CND. There is less demand for these because, most countires are cutting down on production due to less demand for goods. However, Canadian economic fundamentals are very strong. Canadian Banks and Financial Institutions are on a sound footing compared to most of the developed and industerilized countires due to your strict lending and investment regulations. Therefore, the downward trend of the CND is temporary. When the global economics pick-up CND will go up. The realistic level for CND is anywhere between 85-90 USD. Anything above affects Canada's manufacturing and export markets.

Buying THB is not at all advisable. THB will go down further and will hit the 38-40 level by the next year this time. This is maninly due to the political instability and decline tourism. Further, you can not buy THB over the counters in Canadian markets. You need to book through American Express to get THB. When you try to sell THB in Canadian market you will lose about 8 THB per CND.

Your choice would be to save in CND or buy USD. If your trip is next year, my advise would be wait till Feb-April 2009 and the markets will settle down. Also, your trade-off will be the less Airfares Vs USD/CND rates at that time.

If you want make a real smart choice aviod any travel plans for 2009. Do it early 2010 and things will much better both in terms of global economics and Thai political climate. All these have direct impact on gay activities in Thailand. When things are down less choice and low quality at the Bars.

[Smiles]

Above showing that: Trolls can copy & paste with the best of 'em. Needless to say Stevie, a source link is usually considered standard procedure on Sawatdee when one pastes in a full article.

Cheers ...

[lonelywombat]

I'm starting to plan my trip to Thailand next year. One major concern were airfares but I see that they are coming down as the price of oil drops, not much of a concern now. I've also been watching exchange rates and noticed over the past few weeks, that the despite the financial problems in the US, the USD seems quite strong, but the CDN dollar and other currencies are plummeting.
.

I have deleted the rest of your question as no one can predict next week let alone next year

Gaybutton has for the last 6 weeks been tracking the exchange rates and there has been only a cent or two change in that time 34.27 If you want to monitor a good place to check as the work is done for you

http://www.gaythailand.com/forums/index ... 873&st=80l (http://www.gaythailand.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=2873&st=80l)

Unless you are planning to spend tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars on your vacation, a few pips is hardly worth even thinking about.

Smiles your are all confused as usual? God Blees you Babe

[Beachlover]

i went thailand in June this year the AUD = 29.5 baht now im shocked it down to 22.3 baht im going back in April this must im prove ....i been twice and it seems to impfove in April May and June ...but i never see it this low

The Aussie dollar has tanked against almost all currencies now.

[Beachlover]

If anyone here was smart enough to tell you where the dollar will be in 6 months they'd be as rich as Warren Buffett.

If you tried to lock in todays rate by bying a bunch of Bhat you could miss out on any further appreciation of the $ vs the bhat even though you protect yourself against further loss.

But consider: how much are you planning to spend in Thailand and how much would your potential saving be if the dollar dropped say 10%? $100? $200?
Is it really worth fussing about?

I agree... no point taking the trouble to speculate over such small amounts.

Just make more money... that's really the best solution. Shouldn't cancel trips. Life is too short.

Thanks everyone for your input and I agree, who really knows what will happen.


If anyone here was smart enough to tell you where the dollar will be in 6 months they'd be as rich as Warren Buffett.

If you tried to lock in todays rate by bying a bunch of Bhat you could miss out on any further appreciation of the $ vs the bhat even though you protect yourself against further loss.

But consider: how much are you planning to spend in Thailand and how much would your potential saving be if the dollar dropped say 10%? $100? $200?
Is it really worth fussing about?

I guess what I was really asking was how are the exchange rates going to play out over the next few months and what might happen? If the dollar just continues to drop, then like it might be better to stay closer to home. My fear was the Canadian dollar dropping again to $0.65 again or lower.


[b]
Why the Canadian Dollar is under presure is due to the fact the Canadian Economy is natural resources based. So when the oil, gold, steel and other natural resources come down in the market it directly affects the CND. There is less demand for these because, most countires are cutting down on production due to less demand for goods. However, Canadian economic fundamentals are very strong. Canadian Banks and Financial Institutions are on a sound footing compared to most of the developed and industerilized countires due to your strict lending and investment regulations. Therefore, the downward trend of the CND is temporary. When the global economics pick-up CND will go up. The realistic level for CND is anywhere between 85-90 USD. Anything above affects Canada's manufacturing and export markets.

Buying THB is not at all advisable. THB will go down further and will hit the 38-40 level by the next year this time. This is maninly due to the political instability and decline tourism. Further, you can not buy THB over the counters in Canadian markets. You need to book through American Express to get THB. When you try to sell THB in Canadian market you will lose about 8 THB per CND.

This makes sense to me, and thank stevekoolguy for passing that info on. I keep hearing the Canadian economy is performing better than other countries and that we'll be somewhat insulated from the downturn in US but was confused as to why the dollar was dropping so drastically.



I have deleted the rest of your question as no one can predict next week let alone next year

Gaybutton has for the last 6 weeks been tracking the exchange rates and there has been only a cent or two change in that time 34.27 If you want to monitor a good place to check as the work is done for you

http://www.gaythailand.com/forums/index ... 873&st=80l (http://www.gaythailand.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=2873&st=80l)

Thank you for taking the time to delete the rest of my question, but I can still see it. :gy: Thanks for the link.

One thing to take home, at the end of the day: "Nobody can predict the future."

That would be NOBODY. Especially when we're talking about stock prices and exchange rates.

As for Homintern citing the Bible, that's a different question! :-)

Well for good financial advice, the last place to start is by reading a Henry Cate post.
Still, it beats the last high profile member with a dog as an Avatar (Raksiam).

Investors like Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch & Anthony Bolton have quite consistently outperformed the market for decades.
So they can roughly work out where the markets will go.

Another point, over the last 140 years, on average the UK stock market has on average outperformed inflation by 6.9%.

The current falls on stock markets are by way of self-reinforcing as (and this is now being reported in a number of places) the credit providers are making calls for increased margin for those investors who borrow money to finance their share purchases. As the share price falls, more margin is required. If an investor can't raise the cash to meet the margin call, he sells the shares, leading to a further fall, and margin calls on the new group of investors whose calls are triggered at that level. It has nothing to do with the underlying value of the company whose shares are being traded, or for that matter the currency being traded either. Although the DJIA rallied from the 8000 level on Friday, the most serious support level is the low established in the 2002 market decline, which is between 7000 and 7200. We have a way to go yet. But a Depression it ain't!

......Investors like Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch & Anthony Bolton have quite consistently outperformed the market for decades.
So they can roughly work out where the markets will go.....

Neither Buffet or Lynch (don't know about Bolton) are currency traders OR Market Timers. They are classic Graham and Dodd value investers.

Stevie the Kewl Guy however seems to be channeling George Soros - or maybe Nick Leeson?
Howsaboutit Steve-O-Reno?

[allieb]

I looked at the British Pound today on the Bangkok Bank rate and it had fallen to 56. If it keeps going in a downward direction i will not be holidaying in Thailand. Seems like since last year for evey ┬г100 spent its a loss of 1000bt, not good.
Still thats life folks

I was in Heathrow airport on Sunday 12th I noticed that Travelex who claim to offer the best rates were offering Bhat at 56.00 to the pound less 3% commission = 54.32 I looked up the Bangkok Banks rate for cash in Thailand and it was 58.14 and there is no commission on changing cash over the counter in Thailand.

Speaks for itself always take cash and change it in Thailand.

[Impulse]

The Aussie dollar is down similar to the Canadian dollar because of its natural resource economy. What about Russia,with oil down so much its gotta be hurting their currency? Will the onslaught of Russian tourist slow down now? And I guarantee the U.S market will be down tomarrow or I will do the chicken walk on Jomptien beach with Bad boy billy.

.... And I guarantee the U.S market will be down tomarrow or I will do the chicken walk on Jomptien beach with Bad boy billy.

Dow UP 401 points!

Just like what I remember in 1987 and have read about 1929; the markets gyrate wildly for about 2 weeks.
Best to step aside a bit to avoid wiplash...or Chicken dances. :bird:

[topjohn5]

.... And I guarantee the U.S market will be down tomarrow or I will do the chicken walk on Jomptien beach with Bad boy billy.

Dow UP 401 points!

Just like what I remember in 1987 and have read about 1929; the markets gyrate wildly for about 2 weeks.
Best to step aside a bit to avoid wiplash...or Chicken dances. :bird:

I'm not too sure a good chicken dance isn't in order.......at least it gets people laughing!

[Impulse]

Oh boy.Was I wrong.The dow was down almost 400 points at one point and I bought 100 shares of fxp(betting on china to drop,but correlates with U.S) right at the time I should have been selling it.For a 2500 dollar loss. Ill have to do the chicken dance at the beach when it gets dark,even the thieves will think Im too crazy to rob. Im eating my humble pie.

Oh boy.Was I wrong.The dow was down almost 400 points at one point and I bought 100 shares of fxp(betting on china to drop,but correlates with U.S) right at the time I should have been selling it.For a 2500 dollar loss. Ill have to do the chicken dance at the beach when it gets dark,even the thieves will think Im too crazy to rob. Im eating my humble pie.And we're still waiting to here how you went on opening a yuan-currency savings account, of course :drunken:

I looked at the British Pound today on the Bangkok Bank rate and it had fallen to 56. If it keeps going in a downward direction i will not be holidaying in Thailand. Seems like since last year for evey ┬г100 spent its a loss of 1000bt, not good.
Still thats life folks

I was in Heathrow airport on Sunday 12th I noticed that Travelex who claim to offer the best rates were offering Bhat at 56.00 to the pound less 3% commission = 54.32 I looked up the Bangkok Banks rate for cash in Thailand and it was 58.14 and there is no commission on changing cash over the counter in Thailand.

Speaks for itself always take cash and change it in Thailand.

Travelex offer very poor rates for people who turn up at the airport to change cash -they are simply exploiting a monopoly.
However, if you pre-order your Travelex currency on line for collection at the same airport, the rates are much better.

.... at one point and I bought 100 shares of fxp(betting on china to drop,but correlates with U.S) right at the time I should have been selling it.For a 2500 dollar loss. ....

Well, you're a braver man than I am Gunga Din.

A fun book you might want to read - one of my first introductions to the Stock Market back in the early 70's.

"Wiped Out: How I lost a Fortune in the Stock Market While the Averages Were Making New Highs"

Wiped out - from Amazon.Com (http://www.amazon.com/Wiped-Out-Fortune-Averages-Investor/dp/B000E3NWC6/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1224304429&sr=8-1)

If anyone here was smart enough to tell you where the dollar will be in 6 months they'd be as rich as Warren Buffett.

If you tried to lock in todays rate by bying a bunch of Bhat you could miss out on any further appreciation of the $ vs the bhat even though you protect yourself against further loss.

But consider: how much are you planning to spend in Thailand and how much would your potential saving be if the dollar dropped say 10%? $100? $200?
Is it really worth fussing about?

I agree... no point taking the trouble to speculate over such small amounts.

Just make more money... that's really the best solution. Shouldn't cancel trips. Life is too short.
That's OK but what if you live here. I am an Australian living here with all my assets in Australia.I have not only suffered the falling stock market but the double whammy of the dollar collapse. I am hedged at 29Bt. until next may and then I have to decide if I will stay here if the dollar is still at 22.50Bt. it's a very big difference

That's OK but what if you live here. I am an Australian living here with all my assets in Australia.I have not only suffered the falling stock market but the double whammy of the dollar collapse. I am hedged at 29Bt. until next may and then I have to decide if I will stay here if the dollar is still at 22.50Bt. it's a very big difference

Is it cheaper to live in Oz @ 22.5 to the Bt?

That's OK but what if you live here. I am an Australian living here with all my assets in Australia.I have not only suffered the falling stock market but the double whammy of the dollar collapse. I am hedged at 29Bt. until next may and then I have to decide if I will stay here if the dollar is still at 22.50Bt. it's a very big difference

Is it cheaper to live in Oz @ 22.5 to the Bt?


There's an interesting article here:

http://www.stickmanweekly.com/StickMark ... Crisis.htm (http://www.stickmanweekly.com/StickMarkII/BangkokWorldEconomicCrisis.htm)

Geared towards the hetero crowd, but he seems to know his way around Bangkok.

[netrix]

chart shows last 4 months exchange rate of USD to THB
and other currnecies. interesting trends.

www.x-rates.com/d/THB/USD/graph120.html (http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/USD/graph120.html)

That's OK but what if you live here. I am an Australian living here with all my assets in Australia.I have not only suffered the falling stock market but the double whammy of the dollar collapse. I am hedged at 29Bt. until next may and then I have to decide if I will stay here if the dollar is still at 22.50Bt. it's a very big difference

Is it cheaper to live in Oz @ 22.5 to the Bt?


There's an interesting article here:

http://www.stickmanweekly.com/StickMark ... Crisis.htm (http://www.stickmanweekly.com/StickMarkII/BangkokWorldEconomicCrisis.htm)

Geared towards the hetero crowd, but he seems to know his way around Bangkok.
Thank you the article was very informative but I hope storing cash will not be necessary