Samak's "set up"

[thrillbill]

...Ok, many of us were getting tired of PAD's camping on government property, causing airports to close and such but wasn't the confrontation between the government supporters (the guys in RED) and the PAD (guys in YELLOW) really caused by Samak? Wasn't it his friends/ party that had the supporters from the NORTH bussed down to BKK to demonstrate? (can't group the BKK ones, they're too busy working). I saw a couple pictures of Samak's supporters and one had a machete in his hand... they weren't exactly a passive group. So, this (orchestrated?) conflict enabled Samak to get what he wanted... military control, over riding the constitution. (In most countries the city police would have been able to take care protestors without calling in the army).

Ok armchair informers, what do you think?

...Ok, many of us were getting tired of PAD's camping on government property, causing airports to close and such but wasn't the confrontation between the government supporters (the guys in RED) and the PAD (guys in YELLOW) really caused by Samak? Wasn't it his friends/ party that had the supporters from the NORTH bussed down to BKK to demonstrate? (can't group the BKK ones, they're too busy working). I saw a couple pictures of Samak's supporters and one had a machete in his hand... they weren't exactly a passive group. So, this (orchestrated?) conflict enabled Samak to get what he wanted... military control, over riding the constitution. (In most countries the city police would have been able to take care protestors without calling in the army).

Ok armchair informers, what do you think?

It seems to me that the situation escalated when someone fled justice.

[globalwanderer]

Samaks set up... yes.


But not necessarily what he wanted the outcome to be. The Army aren't exactly ushering in an end to the protests and will only try to 'reason with' people from the provinces coming to support PAD

Hes more clever than people think. Imagine if he called on all the PPP supporters to come to BKK to support him. They are much larger in number than the PAD mobs.

The army know this and are treading carefully. Hes also trying to force the general to disobey the elected PM so he could be sacked?

Its a dangerous game as it might end with a coup but so far hes holding his own. PAD are lost if the General stays with samak.

It will all boil down to what the King who will be advised by Prem decide. If Prem is on Samaks side then I should think the army will do nothing, but it's also worth remembering that both the King and Prem have a great dislike for Thaksin and his followers.

[globalwanderer]

He's unlikely to call on PPP supporters to rally in Bangkok against PAD as he knows bloodshed would follow and he'd be the loser.

Yes he is cleverer than many would give him credit but is boxing himself into a corner.

And the general is right in one respect, the army moving in and removing the protesters will solve nothing, and may simply escalate things. Samak has to find a solution with PAD. Unfortunately that now means someone has to lose face.

And I note that the General has stated that he is on the side of the People.

In the end, as usual it's down to the palace. I think, given this is Thailand, no statement from the palace urging reconciliation says a lot

the ppp party is most certainly calling on their supporters to rally in bkk--do you think he really cares if bloodshed ensues--i have close thai friends in both kon kahn and kalasin (issan region) where thaksin is still very popular, etc, as those following this know--they tell me that every day, those pick up trucks with the loudspeakers on their backs are making the rounds and offering any man, woman, "child" anywhere from 200-500 baht a day (plus free food every day) to join with them and travel to bkk--i have been told that many are takiing up the offer---not because, individually they believe in Samak or Thaksin, but because the Issan region is the poorest in the country and many do not have jobs and when one is unemployed, hundreds of baht a day, plus food, sounds pretty good.

He's unlikely to call on PPP supporters to rally in Bangkok against PAD as he knows bloodshed would follow and he'd be the loser.

Yes he is cleverer than many would give him credit but is boxing himself into a corner.

And the general is right in one respect, the army moving in and removing the protesters will solve nothing, and may simply escalate things. Samak has to find a solution with PAD. Unfortunately that now means someone has to lose face.

And I note that the General has stated that he is on the side of the People.

In the end, as usual it's down to the palace. I think, given this is Thailand, no statement from the palace urging reconciliation says a lot

The general also opposed the state of emergency but Samak went ahead. he was clever in putting the general in charge of solving the crisis, its his fault if the violence isnt ended. Samak has 2 choices - step down or fight - i think we know which he will choose rather than lose face and vanish from politics. Its a simple game for him.

The general however is in a precarious position. Hes not popular enough to ever be PM so he has to choose between a "corrupt" PPP or a corrupt media tycoon and his mobs. All the time the shadow of Thaksin looms in the background. HMK is not long for this earth and they both know that.

They also know that should Samak step down there is no real natural successor who would appeal to both Thaksins ex voters & the Thai elite.

The genie is out of the bottle - Thaksin awoke a political giant in the millions of poor farmers etc who now have discovered they have political clout/power and wont give it up easily. The Thai elite wont either.

Years of trouble loom?

[lo-so]

thrillbill- not too off the point! His smile at 7.20am leaving for a candidate's meeting knowing that the military were obliged (due to the death) to accept the state of emergency has given, at least to him, a life line. He has confounded what has been a well financed and supported campaign by those who thought he would have buckled given the lack of support from the real powers that be. Obviously the sea air at the coast was sufficient to energise him- perhaps from the lady of the house?