Thai Baht taking a Nose-Dive?

[Dodger]

I'm not sure how other currencies stand against the Thai baht right now, but I've been shocked (and pleased as hell) over the trend this past 3 months. The exchange rate, which seemed frozen at around 30 bt/$1 U.S. has skyrocketed to 34.4 bt/1 $ U.S. and continuing the decline (or, climb, which ever way you look at it) at a steady pace.

I guess the TAT reports of a 30% decline in tourism may be connected to this, who knows. But in any case, I'm thrilled as hell and standing on the side-lines hoping it will hit 46 bt/1 $ U.S. by October when I return.

Hey, White Desire, where are you?

Cheers

It won't hit the 46 mark by October. However, it will continue to decline for 2 reasons. First being the the political instability and the increasing COL will drive the Bhat dwonwards. Secondly, with the change-over of the Presidency in the US, the dollar will recover faster with new approach to the macro-micro economic policy changes and the war in Iraq seeing a deadline and the monet spent on the war being chanelled into development and job creation efforts. So, October may see the dollar fetching around 36-38 Bhat. Let us keep our hopes alive so we could have money's worth holidays.

[Smiles]

" ... the dollar will recover faster with new approach to the macro-micro economic policy changes and the war in Iraq seeing a deadline and the monet spent on the war being chanelled into development and job creation efforts ... "
I'm sure Monet would be appalled that his name is being associated with this nasty war. I'm appalled, and I can't even draw stick figures.

Cheers ...

[allieb]

I'm not sure how other currencies stand against the Thai baht right now, but I've been shocked (and pleased as hell) over the trend this past 3 months. The exchange rate, which seemed frozen at around 30 bt/$1 U.S. has skyrocketed to 34.4 bt/1 $ U.S. and continuing the decline (or, climb, which ever way you look at it) at a steady pace.

I guess the TAT reports of a 30% decline in tourism may be connected to this, who knows. But in any case, I'm thrilled as hell and standing on the side-lines hoping it will hit 46 bt/1 $ U.S. by October when I return.

Hey, White Desire, where are you?

Cheers

I don't think it has anything to do with the Bt. In fact the US$ has gained almost 9 % against all currencies over the last month or so.

" ... the dollar will recover faster with new approach to the macro-micro economic policy changes and the war in Iraq seeing a deadline and the monet spent on the war being chanelled into development and job creation efforts ... "
I'm sure Monet would be appalled that his name is being associated with this nasty war. I'm appalled, and I can't even draw stick figures.

Cheers ...

I was chatting with Claude Monet this morning on my Ouija board and he wants me to tell you that he's the one that painted the Waterlillies and his mate L.S.Lowry was the guy who did the stick figures.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk104/Bwana2008/Chairs.jpg Chairs ...

[Dodger]

Stevecoolguy Wrote:


It won't hit the 46 mark by October.It won't hit the 46 mark by October.

Sorry Steve, I meant to say 36 - not 46. My God, if it hit 46 I'd be buying baht instead of boys this hioliday.

Thanks for the feedback.

Hey, White Desire, where are you?
Cheers

Im here, they (Thailand) predicted that the bht to the dollar would reach around 35 to the dollar anyway, so it looks as if their predictions are coming true. I don't believe in long term predictions, but let's see what happens when the next US administration takes effect, whether Obama or McCain, you won't see much change in anything if Obama gets in, then I think the dollar will strengthen.

The UK pound is lousy at the moment but the Euro standing high even though both are on the brink of recession.

....I don't think it has anything to do with the Bt. In fact the US$ has gained almost 9 % against all currencies over the last month or so.

I second that. The dollar has been oversold and is correcting.
Don't know what its been doing vis a vis the Euro or other currencies.

I'm guessing it will hold around 36 to the dollar unless things really blow up politically.

BTW, at 34 that's already a 15% decline from its high of 29.5

┬г is worth 61.50.
The ┬г has nose dived, as it's weak at the present..(thanks to Darling & Brown), 2 months ago, it was hitting 66.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3042/2817559420_2c90e756cd_o.jpg

" ... the dollar will recover faster with new approach to the macro-micro economic policy changes and the war in Iraq seeing a deadline and the monet spent on the war being chanelled into development and job creation efforts ... "
I'm sure Monet would be appalled that his name is being associated with this nasty war. I'm appalled, and I can't even draw stick figures.

Cheers ...

I'm sure that Steve was actually referring to that well-known French economist - Count De Monet

I'm sure that Steve was actually referring to that well-known French economist - Count De MonetI believe he had a Saudi cousin once who was the OPEC delegate - Sheik Yamani

I'm sure that Steve was actually referring to that well-known French economist - Count De MonetI believe he had a Saudi cousin once who was the OPEC delegate - Sheik Yamani


Doesn't beat the former Foreign Minister of South Korea: Mr Bum Suk

:cheers:

[bao-bao]

I'm sure that Steve was actually referring to that well-known French economist - Count De MonetI believe he had a Saudi cousin once who was the OPEC delegate - Sheik Yamani

Didn't Frank Zappa also speak of another cousin of his?

Seems like it was the mad dancer Sheik Yerbooti.

[mahjongguy]

The exchange rate, which seemed frozen at around 30 bt/$1 U.S. has skyrocketed to 34.4 bt/1 $ U.S.

It's true that the offshore currency trading rate for the baht (THO) went below 31 for quite a while. BUT, this is NOT the rate that you get if you bring dollars to Thailand. That rate (THB) has generally been at least 10% better, and never dipped below 32.

The disparity between the two rates is due to a tax imposed in late 2006 to discourage speculation in the baht.

If you want to know what your dollar is worth, check the website of a Thai bank for its current telex rate. Do not check the various forex websites unless you actually intend to engage in foreign exchange speculation.

...It's true that the offshore currency trading rate for the baht (THO) went below 31 for quite a while. BUT, this is NOT the rate that you get if you bring dollars to Thailand. That rate (THB) has generally been at least 10% better, and never dipped below 32.

The disparity between the two rates is due to a tax imposed in late 2006 to discourage speculation in the baht.

If you want to know what your dollar is worth, check the website of a Thai bank for its current telex rate. Do not check the various forex websites unless you actually intend to engage in foreign exchange speculation.

Yes, you're right.

But remember a lot of us are sending money to Thailand from overseas for sick buffaloes and thus the oversea rate is what we look at.

...It's true that the offshore currency trading rate for the baht (THO) went below 31 for quite a while. BUT, this is NOT the rate that you get if you bring dollars to Thailand. That rate (THB) has generally been at least 10% better, and never dipped below 32.

The disparity between the two rates is due to a tax imposed in late 2006 to discourage speculation in the baht.

If you want to know what your dollar is worth, check the website of a Thai bank for its current telex rate. Do not check the various forex websites unless you actually intend to engage in foreign exchange speculation.

Yes, you're right.

But remember a lot of us are sending money to Thailand from overseas for sick buffaloes and thus the oversea rate is what we look at.

I would venture to suggest that if the comparitively insignificant ( to farangs) amount of money that is being sent for sick buffaloes, kidney operations, lost legs and mobile phones to your b/s is causing you a problem simply because of the slight variations it the exchange rates then you really cannot afford to send it in the first place.

It is worth remembering that the current financial crisis affecting many parts of the world has been caused by the greed of the American and the UK financial industry operating in the mortgage markets.

[mahjongguy]

...It's true that the offshore currency trading rate for the baht (THO) went below 31 for quite a while. BUT, this is NOT the rate that you get if you bring dollars to Thailand. That rate (THB) has generally been at least 10% better, and never dipped below 32.

The disparity between the two rates is due to a tax imposed in late 2006 to discourage speculation in the baht.

If you want to know what your dollar is worth, check the website of a Thai bank for its current telex rate. Do not check the various forex websites unless you actually intend to engage in foreign exchange speculation.

Yes, you're right.

But remember a lot of us are sending money to Thailand from overseas for sick buffaloes and thus the oversea rate is what we look at.

Well, no. When you send dollars to Thailand you get the local bank rate, not the offshore rate. The THO rate quoted on forex sites is only used for holding baht in cyberspace.

Edited: The above is true assuming you send dollars. Never ever let your own bank sell you the baht before they transmit. "We'll give you a good rate". Hahaha.

It is worth remembering that the current financial crisis affecting many parts of the world has been caused by the greed of the American and the UK financial industry operating in the mortgage markets.

I am well aware that the current opinion blames Bush and the banks for the sub-prime crisis.

Yet, somehow, nobody can bring themselves to say "CRA." This is/was the Community Reinvestment Act, passed in 1977, when I believe that James Earl Carter was sitting in the catbird seat. However, to be quite fair, the support was bi-partisan...and that's why no active politician wants to talk about it.

Here are a couple of links:

http://reason.com/news/show/128336.html
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02052008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/the_real_scandal_243911.htm?page=0

To boil the issue down to its essence, liberal politicians of all stripes were so convinced that poor Americans needed a hand-up, that they massively interfered in the operations of banks, REQUIRING them to make the "below-prime" loans which are in the news today.

The original law has been amended many times, and was strengthened by the Clinton administration. The terrible effects of this govermental meddling were concealed by steadily rising housing prices. But, when the prices stopped going up, the music stopped, and everyone had to scramble for a chair. The pols who had voted in a steady stream did not admit their guilt (gasp!)

Think of "30 baht cures any illness" and you'll be coming close.

[Dodger]

In comparing the Offshore exchange rates to the current exchange rates listed directly through the Bangkok Bank, I see no difference.

Both the Offshore rates and Bangkok Bank rates at set at 34.69/$1 U.S. today.

I'm confused why some here are saying there's a difference.

[mahjongguy]

In comparing the Offshore exchange rates to the current exchange rates listed directly through the Bangkok Bank, I see no difference.

Both the Offshore rates and Bangkok Bank rates at set at 34.69/$1 U.S. today.

I'm confused why some here are saying there's a difference.

You are correct, Dodger. Today the offshore baht is under pressure, being sold off by the speculators who previously had been driving it up. Meanwhile, the Thai government has made some small moves to prop up the bank rate. So, a gap that was a whole baht difference earlier this year has shrunk to near zero.

The two rates may remain close for a while, or not. In any case, close or not, there's no reason to be checking forex websites when you can just as easily check the Thai banks.

[latintopxxx]

Most defintely good news if it drops the cost of a cold beer and gogo boy !

[Dodger]

Thanks mahjongguy.

Here's the link for Bangkok Bank Exchange Rates if anyone's interested:

http://www.bangkokbank.com/Bangkok+Bank ... efault.htm (http://www.bangkokbank.com/Bangkok+Bank/Personal+Banking/Foreign+Exchange/FX+Rates/default.htm)

[ikarus]

The rise of the dollar is a temporal phenomenon. There are a number of factors at work here. Two most important: huge deleveraging where hedge funds,security firms , banks need to sell most liquid assets. As a result price of everything goes down. The second factor: deepening slump in US economy (which is now spreading throughout the world).
As a result US trade deficit went down and the demand for dollar went up. Do not make a mistake: dollar fundamentals are terrible with US government priniting money with increasing speed. The conventional wisdom: move everything in cash , choose your favorite asset class to watch and wait till prices bottom. Then start buying.
Notice that many in US buy physical gold. On August 15 American mint ran out of ounce American Gold eagle coins...

[Dodger]

Thanks ikarus.

I'm not quite sure what any of that means, but one things for sure,...when the exchange to the U.S. Dollar exceeds +36 bt/1$ U.S. I'm going to buy some. When it goes down I won't buy any more until another phenomenum ocurrs. That's the only factor I really understand.

The rise of the dollar is a temporal phenomenon.And there was I thinking it was a spiritual phenomenon. Well well well :compress:

The rise of the dollar is a temporal phenomenon. There are a number of factors at work here. Two most important: huge deleveraging where hedge funds,security firms , banks need to sell most liquid assets. As a result price of everything goes down. The second factor: deepening slump in US economy (which is now spreading throughout the world).
As a result US trade deficit went down and the demand for dollar went up. Do not make a mistake: dollar fundamentals are terrible with US government priniting money with increasing speed. The conventional wisdom: move everything in cash , choose your favorite asset class to watch and wait till prices bottom. Then start buying.
Notice that many in US buy physical gold. On August 15 American mint ran out of ounce American Gold eagle coins...


Will that event be posted on the internet? Would you please provide a link. Thank you.

Thanks ikarus.

I'm not quite sure what any of that means, but one things for sure,...when the exchange to the U.S. Dollar exceeds +36 bt/1$ U.S. I'm going to buy some. When it goes down I won't buy any more until another phenomenum ocurrs. That's the only factor I really understand.


Maybe 36 isn't high enough. Remember when it was 56+ ?

[mahjongguy]

"Maybe 36 isn't high enough. Remember when it was 56+ ?"

Yeah, when the Asian banks melted down. This time the shoe's on the other foot.

HSBC's lead currency analyst said yesterday that they are expecting the baht to fall to 35, but probably not lower. He doesn't know the future any more than you or I, but it seems like a realistic number.

[Dodger]

With the fracturing of the already fractured Thai government, coupled with the fact that tourism is declining at the speed of sound, my bet is that the baht will drop to 37 or lower withn the next 60 days.

[ikarus]

The rise of the dollar is a temporal phenomenon. There are a number of factors at work here. Two most important: huge deleveraging where hedge funds,security firms , banks need to sell most liquid assets. As a result price of everything goes down. The second factor: deepening slump in US economy (which is now spreading throughout the world).
As a result US trade deficit went down and the demand for dollar went up. Do not make a mistake: dollar fundamentals are terrible with US government priniting money with increasing speed. The conventional wisdom: move everything in cash , choose your favorite asset class to watch and wait till prices bottom. Then start buying.
Notice that many in US buy physical gold. On August 15 American mint ran out of ounce American Gold eagle coins...


Will that event be posted on the internet? Would you please provide a link. Thank you.
Well, it is, of course, a very good point. That is why I suggested to choose a favorite asset class which you understand better and have a good access to research. I maintain what I said before: I like Jap. Yen in short run and Aussi dollar in long run. Aussi dollar is currently hugely oversold IMHO. I believe in Aussie dollar because I do believe in
(partial) decoupling of Chinese economy from US one.

"Maybe 36 isn't high enough. Remember when it was 56+ ?"

Yeah, when the Asian banks melted down. This time the shoe's on the other foot.

HSBC's lead currency analyst said yesterday that they are expecting the baht to fall to 35, but probably not lower. He doesn't know the future any more than you or I, but it seems like a realistic number.


A year or so ago some important Thai group of exporters pleaded with the Bank of Thailand not to let the ฿ fall below 36 to the dollar. I'm with them but I still like 56.

PS You seem to be a reasonable chap, can you explain to me how to get 'Spell Check' to work? Reasonable, even if you do believe that central banks exchange currency with each other. Bye the bye, spell checker really didn't like "mahjongguy"

[mahjongguy]

**Sorry. This was a test.**

[mahjongguy]

"can you explain to me how to get 'Spell Check' to work?"

Champ speller that I am, I hadn't tried that feature before. Just now tried it. Works in Firefox. Does not work in IE 7.

[Jetsam]

"can you explain to me how to get 'Spell Check' to work?"

Champ speller that I am, I hadn't tried that feature before. Just now tried it. Works in Firefox. Does not work in IE 7.

try the new google chrome browser

[Smiles]

This is what I get when clicking on the Spell Check button. And have for some time now.



http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v18/sawatdeephotos/Personal/spellcheck.jpg


Cheers ...

"Maybe 36 isn't high enough. Remember when it was 56+ ?"

Yeah, when the Asian banks melted down. This time the shoe's on the other foot.

HSBC's lead currency analyst said yesterday that they are expecting the baht to fall to 35, but probably not lower. He doesn't know the future any more than you or I, but it seems like a realistic number.


If I were a banker I wouldn't tell anyone because they would automatically know I was stupid.

If I were a banker I wouldn't tell anyone because they would automatically know I was stupid.We've pretty much worked that out from your posts already

This is what I get when clicking on the Spell Check button. And have for some time now.



http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v18/sawatdeephotos/Personal/spellcheck.jpg


Cheers ...


I hope that the moderators/administrators take note of these posts.

With the fracturing of the already fractured Thai government, coupled with the fact that tourism is declining at the speed of sound, my bet is that the baht will drop to 37 or lower withn the next 60 days.


I hope that you're making that bet by buying $ with ฿

If I were a banker I wouldn't tell anyone because they would automatically know I was stupid.We've pretty much worked that out from your posts already

Welcome to the forum who. I must say you really are privileged in having had your initiation ceremony conducted personally by one of sawatdi's most in/famous (sawatdi-ites choose for yourselves what you feel is the most appropiate) members, none other than the Colonel his very self.

I wish I could say I felt sorry for you, but I don't, because as a result of what you said, you didn't just ask for the response you were given by him, you got down on your bended knees and fucking well pleaded to him for it. Furthermore and to give you even more bad news, now that you have obviously unintentionally stumbled into his line of fire, there is absolutely no possibility that you will ever be able to escape from it. If I were you, I would take the only option that is now available to you, hang up the name who, and rejoin with a new handle.

Take the advice I have given you, or don't take it, Up to You. However if you choose not to take it, don't say you weren't warned.

Choc Dee who, http://i281.photobucket.com/albums/kk216/ThaiRakThai/4955933.gif



George.

My predictions are that by December it will stabilize at 38 which will be a good thing for the country and the tourists

[Smiles]

" ... My predictions are that by December it will stabilize at 38 which will be a good thing for the country and the tourists ... "
And my prediction (singular) is that by December you will have stabilized to 'Just Plain Steve'; dropped the 'kool' (coz you're not black, I think); found Jesus, turned straight and joined the 'Jobs, economy, banking, business, investment in Thailand Forum' at ThaiVisa where you can post every message in Bold and accountants will think you're 'kool' (once again).

Cheers ...

Why does "who" write everything in large green crayon?

[rincondog]

Why does "who" write everything in large green crayon?

To attract the attention of childish simpletons such as yourself.

[Bob]

It's true that the offshore currency trading rate for the baht (THO) went below 31 for quite a while. BUT, this is NOT the rate that you get if you bring dollars to Thailand. That rate (THB) has generally been at least 10% better, and never dipped below 32.


Although of minor importance, I know that's not true. I was getting below 31.5 from the banks in Thailand in February of this year for a US $100.00 bill (of course, it hit it's low point while I was there the last time!).

[Dodger]

Bob...you're correct.

When I was in town last April-May the exchange ranged between 30.7 bt - 31.06/1 $U.S. for an all-time low.

BTW...the exchange rate just hit 35 bt yesterday with no signs of slowing down.

Gooooo Nellie !!!

[mahjongguy]

It's true that the offshore currency trading rate for the baht (THO) went below 31 for quite a while. BUT, this is NOT the rate that you get if you bring dollars to Thailand. That rate (THB) has generally been at least 10% better, and never dipped below 32.


Although of minor importance, I know that's not true. I was getting below 31.5 from the banks in Thailand in February of this year for a US $100.00 bill (of course, it hit it's low point while I was there the last time!).

I meant to say more clearly that I was referring to telex rates. Here are two transfers I made to Kasikornbank in February:
02/11/08 327,500 $10,000 32.75
02/15/08 648,400 $20,000 32.42

Cash rates for $100 notes are generally only 0.10 worse, so I cannot explain how you managed to do so poorly.

Everyone seems to be right, more or less.

From Kasikorn's site:

Jan 2 Notes/Telex 33.22/33.48
Feb 1 Notes/Telex 32.58/32.84
Mar 3 Notes/Telex 31.24/31.30 the lowest I saw was Notes-31.04
Apr 1 Notes/Telex 31.12/31.38
May 2 Notes/Telex 31.34/31.60
Jun 2 Notes/Telex 32.22/32.48

Thier site didn't specify the denomination of 'Notes' but I chose 50-100

[Geezer]

The yellow font is illegible on my screen.

Now it has been changed top green. That is OK.

The yellow font is illegible on my screen.

Now it has been changed top green. That is OK.


http://www.etymonline.com/

[TrongpaiExpat]

or: www.x-rates.com/d/THB/USD/graph120.html (http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/USD/graph120.html)

[Wesley]

The yellow font is illegible on my screen.

Now it has been changed top green. That is OK.

I hate the yellow font as well, when i get to a site with yellow i just don't bother looking around.

The yellow font is illegible on my screen.

Now it has been changed top green. That is OK.

I hate the yellow font as well, when i get to a site with yellow i just don't other looking around.

Well, one place to avoid in that case, is this site as your logo is in yellow some of the time. You really should find a new tobacconist. :flower:

To make the font color easy to read on a webpage, click these: in the Menu at the top of your screen, click Tools, then Internet Options, Accessibility, Ignore colors specified on webpages, OK, OK

or... For a quick look hold your left mouse button down and drag the cursor over the text in the web page, usually that makes it easy to read