Rent or Buy?

[thrillbill]

There have been a couple topics relating to this question and here is my situation:
When I first started to work in the Eastern Seaboard area, I didn't think I would want to stay here very long; thus, I chose to rent (I get an housing allowance). I am now going on my 4th year and since I know my Thai BF will never be able to move to the States with me, I feel like I should stay here; thus put my rental money towards purchasing a small bungalow or condo (in the area of 3 million baht???) Of course, this means that I will continue to work in Thailand and be receiving my housing allowance.

I know there are a lot of opinions out there, so I would like to hear them from people that have looked around and bought a condo or small house. My gut feeling tells me to just continue to rent for various reasons. I have about 10 years before retirement, so this may be a factor also.

Right now I am in the Wongamat area... It seems that the condos for sail in the Jomtien area are cheaper...or is that because there is more to choose from. Also, are there any gated communities near Jomtien that would be walking distance to the beaches there?

I guess you know that foreigners are allowed to buy condos, but not allowed to buy houses, large or small (unless they are in the class of Wealthy Investors).

...the class of Wealthy Investors

Just what every gogo dancer wishes for when a new customer enters the bar. :thumbleft:

RENT RENT RENT

Thrillbill:

Buy a condo believe me it you'll be happier with a property in your name "make sure that is what happens as only 49% of condo buildings can be transferred (legally) into a furangs name".
I also find staying In a condo is much more economical than a house I had before, go buy one there's thousands out there to choose from.

BUY, BUY, BUY!!!! I bought three years ago for 3.1 million when the baht was 40.5 to 1. I have done a remodel and another remodel costing a total of another 3 million; it is now a four unit apartment house worth about 15 million with the baht at 31 to 1. The building now provides good income, so I have no interest in selling, but with an eye for value and location opportunity is here to be had.

BUY, BUY, BUY!!!! I bought three years ago for 3.1 million when the baht was 40.5 to 1. I have done a remodel and another remodel costing a total of another 3 million; it is now a four unit apartment house worth about 15 million with the baht at 31 to 1. The building now provides good income, so I have no interest in selling, but with an eye for value and location opportunity is here to be had.This started life as a single condo?

RENT RENT RENT


RIGHT RIGHT RIGHT

[Impulse]

Buy before the dollar drops more.Im glad i did a couple years ago when it was 39 baht for a dollar.My problem is I dont posses the chanote or whatever the title is called. Thailand is one of the best places to buy a condo.Its rated number one out of about 80 countries according to my international real estate newsletter. If your under 30 years old Id be worried about the sea level rising too high,get some global warming insurance. :cheers:

Buy before the dollar drops more.Im glad i did a couple years ago when it was 39 baht for a dollar.My problem is I dont posses the chanote or whatever the title is called.

Your problem, then, appears to be that you do not own whatever you paid for, however many baht you got to your dollar! Without a "chanote or whatever the title is called" you do not have registered ownership, or anything to sell. And you are "glad" and giving advice ....

[qoute="rocket"]Thailand is one of the best places to buy a condo.Its rated number one out of about 80 countries according to my international real estate newsletter.[/quote]

Which is produced where, and based on what criteria?

Buy before the dollar drops more.Im glad i did a couple years ago when it was 39 baht for a dollar.My problem is I dont posses the chanote or whatever the title is called.

Your problem, then, appears to be that you do not own whatever you paid for, however many baht you got to your dollar! Without a "chanote or whatever the title is called" you do not have registered ownership, or anything to sell. And you are "glad" and giving advice ....

[qoute="rocket"]Thailand is one of the best places to buy a condo.Its rated number one out of about 80 countries according to my international real estate newsletter.Which is produced where, and based on what criteria?[/quote]



All very sound observations Gone Fishing! Added to his own comment about Bangkok going under water in 15 to 20 years according to the best and most scientific geological calculations. But he suggests insurance will bail one out of that mess. What a dream world.

I should start an investment company selling things to some of these people who don't even realize that they don't own what they have paid for. And without "chanote or whatever the title is called" I'll convert US dollars at 50 or even a 100 just to prove what a good deal it is I am offering!

I suspect that once again a poster in a most atypical situation ("I converted my tiny condominium into a 4 apartment building worth squillions") is trying to generalise from his actvities for others who will be buying a tiny condominium that cannot be converted into a set of luxury penthouses with a 400% profit. Apart from Thailand's use of shoddy building materials, non-enforcement of the building codes etc., who would buy in the current environment of political uncertainty, both in the government arena and over the next head of state (one must be circumspect here)?

Agreed, Homi - additionally many of those carrying out these "conversions" have a very unpleasant shock when they actually come to selling their "investment", when they discover that not only is it worth a fraction of the value they put on it, but that often it is worth less than they have spent. This particularly applies in those cases where the building use has been changed without approval, or where a number of small condos are joined together.

Soi 10 Tom may be one of the lucky ones, but there are many more who are currently having a nasty dose of reality.

When Soi 10 Tom placed a post about renting a unit, I went to see it as I had a friend that was looking for a place. I property is almost 500 sq meters. More like a double shop house with land around it.

I purchased 2 condos. I just sold 1 condo for over 2.5x what I paid. I have no idea if the market will go up or down. But there are still good buys (I mean 80 - 100sqm) for around $100,000 US.

Based on my experience, I would buy if planning to stay at least 5 years in Thailand. But each should base their decision on their own research, needs, and financial situation....

[Shuee]

i see you bought 2 - did you happen to rent one out?

i am thinking of doing this from afar, (not living in los- just a few holiday trips a year), but then there are + & _ here also,

1like possible long void periods, where you'd still have to pay communial fee's

2, & i'm assuming you would have to pay somekind of tax on the rental profit/income also

3 agency client introduction fee's, initial cleaning/repair fee's

[thrillbill]

As expected, there would be a variety of answers...thanks to all of the opinions. When looking at the various condos for sale it seems like View Talay 1 and 2 and ??? whatever have scores (hundreds?) of their owners trying to sell their condos... So that gives me a message that this complex must be cursed or something (or is it from all of the "sky jumping " off the balconies there)

Next, when onse sees a price listed, how much can one negotiate down?

i see you bought 2 - did you happen to rent one out? If you look at the property Web sites - http://www.thailand-property-guide.com/ for example - you'll see there are many, many rental properties available so it's a risk and yes, any income derived in Thailand is subject to tax in Thailand

[ikarus]

When Soi 10 Tom placed a post about renting a unit, I went to see it as I had a friend that was looking for a place. I property is almost 500 sq meters. More like a double shop house with land around it.

I purchased 2 condos. I just sold 1 condo for over 2.5x what I paid. I have no idea if the market will go up or down. But there are still good buys (I mean 80 - 100sqm) for around $100,000 US.

Based on my experience, I would buy if planning to stay at least 5 years in Thailand. But each should base their decision on their own research, needs, and financial situation....
I would definitely agree with that. Despite natural price fluctuations, the overall direction in Pattaya is up. This is on top of weakening dollar...
The time to buy condo is now if you plan to stay for a long period of time. While I understand your choice of Jomtien area (this would be my instinctive choice too), I would recommend you to look in Northern Pattaya where you can get better deal for less money or even 15-20 minutes drive out of Pattaya where there are nice new projects but prices are much cheaper.
With Ocean Towers project in Pattaya going ahead, the face of the resort is going to change with time: it will be more expensive but simultaneously much nicer place to live.
This is completely in line with my vision described in the thread "where Pattaya headed".
Good hunting!

Despite natural price fluctuations, the overall direction in Pattaya is up. As they say, there's a sucker born every minute

I think above all else, one must have confidence in the baht if one is buying in Thailand.

Consider the ramifications if you were to buy a 6,000,000 baht condo when the USD/THB is 30:1. It would cost you $200,000.00.

Now, consider what happens if the baht slides to 40:1. You'd have to sell the condo for 8,000,000 baht just to break even.

Of course, if the baht strengthens further, you win.

Overall, though, I think you will see more potential gain/risk on foreign exchange than you will on appreciation of the property value in baht. And if you're playing for foreign exchange, why not do it in a forex trading account, where you can get leverage of 100:1 or more?

My thoughts, anyway.

[Shuee]

i read a post on thai visa.com where explained that its cheaper to rent than buy in los - in other words the proportions of rental income as apposed to the property price is well below what you would expect in westerners land - this was shown in percentage terms, which then equated to being worked out that it would take you around 15 yrs of rent to pay for your condo in total, but about 10yrs to pay for itself if rented in the usa

also you need to baer in mind that if renting, & a loud karaoke bar or like the new viewtaly (7?)being built currently blocking people sea view, etc, you can just pay up to the end of the month & then get the hell out!!

get your bf or a thai friend to do the negotiating & you'll get an even better deal

[ikarus]

[quote="Singapore Sexpat



Overall, though, I think you will see more potential gain/risk on foreign exchange than you will on appreciation of the property value in baht. And if you're playing for foreign exchange, why not do it in a forex trading account, where you can get leverage of 100:1 or more?

My thoughts, anyway.[/quote]
You are either joking or do not understand the nature of leveraged currency trading. For example, if you currently take short position in US dollar -Thai baht (and you need to find first a dealer which will allow such a currency pair) , you will most probably loose a lot of money (due to the leveraged nature of the trading), since it is difficult to expect a significant Baht appreciation in the short run. You may even need to pay for maitaining such position (even though currently rate differential is in favor of US dollar).
Nobody plays long-term trends through leveraged forex accounts.

[Impulse]

There appears to be a glut of condos in the Jomtien area,but this will be absorbed over time. i wouldnt buy vt 2 because of its location>Same with vt 1,location, and its older than vt 2. The new vt7 will be a nice looking building compared to the others they have built in the past,although vt 3 isnt bad looking either. I had a unit in vt7 and switched with one in vt5. If Ocean 1 gets built ,the whole area will increase in value,imho. Ive looked at the fair properties condo site and there are now 14 pages of condos for sale.Im sure you could bargain for a better price if you are inclined to do so and have some time.If you plan on retiring in 10 years I still say buy now. I doubt prices will be lower.Inflation has a way of taking care of that. maybe Thailand is different than the rest of the world,but looking back,there are many who wished they had bought something in real estate in the past.Even if its not exactly what you want ,you can always sell it and "move up"as need be.

When Soi 10 Tom placed a post about renting a unit, I went to see it as I had a friend that was looking for a place. I property is almost 500 sq meters. More like a double shop house with land around it.Hmmm. How did he get around the law on non-Thais owning land in Thailand, I wonder? There was a crackdown recently on foreigners owning non-condominiums through sham arrangements such as companies where they were the effective owner

You are either joking or do not understand the nature of leveraged currency trading. For example, if you currently take short position in US dollar -Thai baht (and you need to find first a dealer which will allow such a currency pair) , you will most probably loose a lot of money (due to the leveraged nature of the trading), since it is difficult to expect a significant Baht appreciation in the short run. You may even need to pay for maitaining such position (even though currently rate differential is in favor of US dollar).
Nobody plays long-term trends through leveraged forex accounts.

I wasn't suggesting what you understood me to suggest. I was just saying that there are better ways to make money on exchange rate fluctuation than by putting your money in a condo.

When Soi 10 Tom placed a post about renting a unit, I went to see it as I had a friend that was looking for a place. I property is almost 500 sq meters. More like a double shop house with land around it.Hmmm. How did he get around the law on non-Thais owning land in Thailand, I wonder? There was a crackdown recently on foreigners owning non-condominiums through sham arrangements such as companies where they were the effective owner.

It continues to amaze me why some posters think it is their concern as to how others conduct their business. Frankly, it is none of Homintern's business nor should it be his concern how people conduct their business. Some posters seem to try to insinuate that people are breaking the law or doing things dishonestly. It is insulting and very rude.

We should be a community that tries to be helpful to each other. The post asked a question about peoples' opinion on buying or selling. Most posters gave their opinions to be helpful. One guy then tries to make a "gotcha" statement without kowing any facts. What a petty, petty person....in my view

There appears to be a glut of condos in the Jomtien area,but this will be absorbed over time. i wouldnt buy vt 2 because of its location>Same with vt 1,location, and its older than vt 2. The new vt7 will be a nice looking building compared to the others they have built in the past,although vt 3 isnt bad looking either. I had a unit in vt7 and switched with one in vt5. .

Rocket, which VT buildings are an easy walk to an all night baht bus?

[travelerjim]

There appears to be a glut of condos in the Jomtien area,but this will be absorbed over time. i wouldnt buy vt 2 because of its location>Same with vt 1,location, and its older than vt 2. The new vt7 will be a nice looking building compared to the others they have built in the past,although vt 3 isnt bad looking either. I had a unit in vt7 and switched with one in vt5. .

Rocket, which VT buildings are an easy walk to an all night baht bus?

VT 1, 2, 5C (approx 2 years) & 5D ..behind 5C ...(5D just completed) are all easy walk to baht bus

In my opinion...VT 5C is best...newer...quiet..beautiful ocean/island views...
5 minutes walk to chairs on gay beach...and 5 minutes walk to baht bus..
and more :-)

[ikarus]

You are either joking or do not understand the nature of leveraged currency trading. For example, if you currently take short position in US dollar -Thai baht (and you need to find first a dealer which will allow such a currency pair) , you will most probably loose a lot of money (due to the leveraged nature of the trading), since it is difficult to expect a significant Baht appreciation in the short run. You may even need to pay for maitaining such position (even though currently rate differential is in favor of US dollar).
Nobody plays long-term trends through leveraged forex accounts.

I wasn't suggesting what you understood me to suggest. I was just saying that there are better ways to make money on exchange rate fluctuation than by putting your money in a condo.
What you suggested is to use leverage currency trading as the way to make money on currency exchange rate fluctuations. This is in your post. Well, this is a sure way to lose a lot of money unless you are a high class profy.
This is an idiotic suggestion and I indicated it.
Baht appreciatiation is definitely a factor in deciding whether buying or renting is the best way to proceed. Nobody arguing that buying condo is the best way to make money on exchange rate fluctuations. Thus, from any standpoint your post makes absolutely no sense.

[Shuee]

If you plan on retiring in 10 years I still say buy now.

but then what do you do with the property until you retire assuming your still working in farlang land,

can we change the thread heading to buy or rent or rent out

so if you rent out is this easily done from farlang land by an agent in los & what about taxes to pay on the profits made etc

the agent would have to do almost everything for you like; arrange cleaners, repairs man, seek new tenants, arrange viewings, arrange transfers to your account, etc

does anyone here manage to do this succesfully from afar (whilst there in farlang land) & after you have paid an agent/agents to deal with almost everyting, are there any funds left for your wallet after paying tax also......?
of course you are also have your money locked into a condo that will hopefully increase in value in the longish term, whilst someone else rents it from you, sounds good in theory doesnt it :idea:

My favourite current "property review" is of Ocean's Edge, on the mudflats North of Naklua. Despite so far only having the underground (under sea level?) car park completed it was still given a Gold Award by Homes Overseas magazine last year for being "internationally recognised as the best condominium in Thailand".

Believe the hype if you will.

DELETED

So what's the truth? Exactly how far along is that project? If it's still a hole in the ground (mud?) then what is the award based on? The "artist's rendering" in its sales brochure?

I thought I was supposed to be on ignore.

The hype is that the condos are not built yet. All there was for the "judges" to visit and inspect was a hole in the ground and some plans - no condos! The best set of plans, the prettiest drawings, massive potential, etc, maybe, but it is simply impossible for it to be "internationally recognised as the best condo in Thailand" before it is built! There is nothing to recognise.

What part of hype do you not understand?

Are you really quite as dumb as you insist on making yourself out to be?

[ikarus]

Jez, you really do take the biscuit. Wheres the hype?

This project was awarded the Best condo in Thailand by that magazine. I know the developers here personally and there is no hype. The magazine sent out the judges to actually visit the projects and inspect each project and then voted. A much better way then reviewing and voting from afar. Congratulations are in order for Andy, Wim and the OE team, not sarcastic remarks.
You know , John, this guy, Gone Fishing is an absolute idiot. He pretends to be some kind of expert on real estate in Pattaya
but knows nothing about it. I recall his totally idiotic posts in my thread " where Pattaya headed" where he predicted that Ocean towers are dead. He made a number of other statements over there which qualifies him as total jerk.
I also noticed that for whatever reason he constantly challenging you on this board with his idiotic attacks.
You are respected businessman with professonal knowledge of real estate business in Pattaya.
I would ignore this miserable, stupid m....ker.

[thrillbill]

You readers who know the scoop on real estate in Pattaya should enjoy ??? reading page 36 in Real Estate Thailand Magazine issue 84. It is really a free promotion advertising hand out one can pick up at various tourist hot spots. The article brings up the court issue over the future View Talay 7 project in Jomtien. It basically slams the "foreign nationals" who decided to band together and take the issue to court. ((I thought the reason why the owners in the condo behind the sight spent their money and time going to court was due to a building code that existed which stated there were to be no high rise apartments built so many meters from the shore line, correct??????????????) The article states, " When foreign nationals decide to lodge complaints, they should be very mindful of the fact that they are in a foreign country with different laws and far different concepts of received values." The article continues to say, "Many readers are not aware that in some instances where developers have received building approval before a particular Building Control Act has come into force, then they are not bound by such new regulations...

Those readers who like to see an good example of propaganda or written bull@hit would enjoy reading this one sided article.

The irony about this is that because of the March 2008 court decision and the arrogant attitude of Pattaya Propterty Consultants (the owner of the magazine) I don't trust any of the firms that advertise and support this magazine.

[thrillbill]

Maybe my understanding of why the residents behind the future View Talay were upset and went to court was wrong (I am sure someone can set me straight on this) but if you read this article written by Peter Richards (Real Estate Thailand promotion magazine this month's issue), the "theme" through his accusations and one sidedness is that foreigners have NO right to challenge any of the big condo projects even though the company may be breaking a building code of such; for this is THAILAND. Sorry, but I did not like this writer's attitude.
(One thing I do agree with him, as he states, "IT would seem that these acts of objection to achieve a particular result must be viewed with caution before any actions are taken, and it is wise to remember that you are playing the game with Thai rules and that western concepts and conditions do not necessarily apply." But while people like Peter Richards try to sell you a condo they'll say there are certain codes the district must follow.

(maybe someone can scan the article and attach it to this forum)

[Brad the Impala]

I thought I was supposed to be on ignore.

The hype is that the condos are not built yet. All there was for the "judges" to visit and inspect was a hole in the ground and some plans - no condos! The best set of plans, the prettiest drawings, massive potential, etc, maybe, but it is simply impossible for it to be "internationally recognised as the best condo in Thailand" before it is built! There is nothing to recognise.

What part of hype do you not understand?

Are you really quite as dumb as you insist on making yourself out to be?


Has it been built yet JB?

Singapore Sexpat / Brad the Impala,

No it hasn't!!!

The "judges" voted for the award last year, judging the "hole in the ground" that was then all there was to physically see "the best condominium in Thailand". Since then construction has progressed to the point where, according to their latest advertorial in the April edition of Property & Lifestyle magazine (page 83), "Ocean's Edge Beachfront Condominium construction reached a significant point with the completion of the underground car park area. The post tensioned concrete slabs are now in place, serving as the ceiling to the car park and the floor of the apartments". There are no condominiums built yet. This can be readily verified on Ocean's Edge own website (www.oceansedgepattaya.com (http://www.oceansedgepattaya.com) - rather a misnomer, as it is some considerable distance from Pattaya).The "show apartment" is not a finished unit, but is for demo purposes only. The "hole" has now been turned into an underground concrete box, ideal for turning your car into a heap of rust in the shortest possible time. One does not need "to be some kind of expert on real estate in Pattaya", as Ikarus suggests, to be able to read.

I am not knocking Ocean's Edge specifically; I have no reason to think that the final product will be anything but every bit as good as others in the region, and better than some - at the price, it should be. What I find amusing is the notion that a hole in the ground can be seriously voted "the best condominium" anywhere, before there is anything to actually judge - what is even more amusing is El Presidente's perfectly serious defence of the "Gold Award" and Ikarus' support of him. Since he failed to make it as an estate agent here, I can only imagine the claims and promises of some of those sharks who actually have been successful.

I actually enjoy reading the selection of real estate magazines in Pattaya, as I find they are a good source of light relief. Opposite Ocean's Edge's advertisement in the same magazine, for example, was an advertisement for a "Spectacular Estate in Huay Yai" for 32 million baht ($1,000,000) - apart from the house looking like an accident of white and gold colonnades designed by someone who bakes wedding cakes rather than an architect, the "spectacular estate" is no bigger than my kitchen garden (some 50m x 40m). Some estate! I used to think most of these developers were mad - now I have realised it is the purchasers who are certifiable.

ThrillBill,

the article you refer to was the second along similar lines published by Real Estate Thailand, the previous one being labelled a "feature article" (read advertorial) written by Joerg Szwalkiewicz, which was even more offensive. When I voiced my distaste here, El Presidente (John Botting), who is the Editor and Managing Director of the magazine, denied any responsibility on the grounds that the magazine's editor (Thai) was legally responsible for content, not him. You are clearly not the only one disenchanted with the magazine - the number of advertising pages dropped by some 25% following the first article, including the most reputable clients, and they no longer run the www.thailand-property-guide.com (http://www.thailand-property-guide.com) website.

I will actually miss Botting's jottings, even though his personal contribution was limited to his vapid editorials, mainly for his imaginative interview subjects - the farangs who were happy to boast of how their 10 years experience as a plumber's mate or a bricklayer in UK or Europe had taught them all they needed to know about building projects in Thailand and circumventing Thai law, and the Thais who had studied architecture at an overseas university even though where they studied was not a university, nor did they teach architecture!

I wonder how much they paid for that award. These real estate people have no shame, really. The worst hucksters on earth.

I wonder how much they paid for that award. These real estate people have no shame, really. The worst hucksters on earth.Rather like the travelers who vote for "best airline", "best hotel" and so on. Or in WhiteDesire's case, "best leader of the Democratic Party"

[ikarus]

I realize that this post does not exactly fit the topic but I think it give the idea why people
who consider serious overseas investments should do it now without further delay.
Similar problems occur in UK. Also, note the name of columnist:
very bright guy!

U.S. Consumers Destined for a Future with Fewer Choices, Much-Higher Costs
By Peter D. Schiff
Guest Columnist

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You're right Ikarus. Your post doesn't fit the topic. If one is convinced that the Dollar and Pound are due to tumble against the currency of a mango monarchy in the long term there are much more liquid alternative currency investments than a condominium that it looks increasingly likely you wouldn't be able to occupy for more than 90 days of a year.

[ikarus]

You're right Ikarus. Your post doesn't fit the topic. If one is convinced that the Dollar and Pound are due to tumble against the currency of a mango monarchy in the long term there are much more liquid alternative currency investments than a condominium that it looks increasingly likely you wouldn't be able to occupy for more than 90 days of a year.
Do not you worry about me personally. Unfortunately, this message board has a number of members who like to talk about subjects that they do not understand and you are apparently one of them. What do you mean by more liquid currencies? Dollar and Pound are perfectly liquid at the moment and hopefully stay that way in the future.
The truth is that there are no easily available safe alternative long-term currency investments at the moment. If you think otherwise, you fool yourself. If you think that this is just my private opinion, ask Central bankers in China or Russia or Norway for that matter.

"Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse." Click here to order a copy today.Oh, so this is a promo for a merchant of doom book. These things are cyclical. If we're going for economic analysis I prefer someone who isn't running around telling us "the sky is falling, the sky is falling"

"Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse." Click here to order a copy today.Oh, so this is a promo for a merchant of doom book. These things are cyclical. If we're going for economic analysis I prefer someone who isn't running around telling us "the sky is falling, the sky is falling"

What if that person happens to be right?

You're right Ikarus. Your post doesn't fit the topic. If one is convinced that the Dollar and Pound are due to tumble against the currency of a mango monarchy in the long term there are much more liquid alternative currency investments than a condominium that it looks increasingly likely you wouldn't be able to occupy for more than 90 days of a year.
Do not you worry about me personally. Unfortunately, this message board has a number of members who like to talk about subjects that they do not understand and you are apparently one of them. What do you mean by more liquid currencies? Dollar and Pound are perfectly liquid at the moment and hopefully stay that way in the future.
The truth is that there are no easily available safe alternative long-term currency investments at the moment. If you think otherwise, you fool yourself. If you think that this is just my private opinion, ask Central bankers in China or Russia or Norway for that matter.

Ikarus, you have completely misread what 555 has said, which in fact is an excellent observation and comment.

On top of that your analysis of the American economy is laughable, all the more so in light of the fact that America has very serious problems, all of which you have blissfully missed.

"Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse." Click here to order a copy today.Oh, so this is a promo for a merchant of doom book. These things are cyclical. If we're going for economic analysis I prefer someone who isn't running around telling us "the sky is falling, the sky is falling"

What if that person happens to be right?

Sure Singapore Sexpat, and what if I win next the Irish Sweepstakes?

[ikarus]

You're right Ikarus. Your post doesn't fit the topic. If one is convinced that the Dollar and Pound are due to tumble against the currency of a mango monarchy in the long term there are much more liquid alternative currency investments than a condominium that it looks increasingly likely you wouldn't be able to occupy for more than 90 days of a year.
Do not you worry about me personally. Unfortunately, this message board has a number of members who like to talk about subjects that they do not understand and you are apparently one of them. What do you mean by more liquid currencies? Dollar and Pound are perfectly liquid at the moment and hopefully stay that way in the future.
The truth is that there are no easily available safe alternative long-term currency investments at the moment. If you think otherwise, you fool yourself. If you think that this is just my private opinion, ask Central bankers in China or Russia or Norway for that matter.

Ikarus, you have completely misread what 555 has said, which in fact is an excellent observation and comment.

On top of that your analysis of the American economy is laughable, all the more so in light of the fact that America has very serious problems, all of which you have blissfully missed.
O'K I admit that I misred the comment. But you,on the other hand, did not miss that this is not my analysis,
though I totally agree with the consequences the author draw. The author is, infact, a very good economist who himself manages quite successfully a sizable portfolio and I do not know what credentials you have. Your popmous comment is , in fact, absolutely shallow. May be you can give us your own economic forecast. Then we will be able to compare your predictions with authors. I have to warn you, though, that if you do, I am going to nail you down the road with whatever bulshit you come up with.I also stand by my comments regarding safe currencies
(or more precisely lack of it).
555 , however, do compare apples and oranges. What I have said about purchasing condos in Thailand is that for those who plan to live in Thailand for a long period of time and having fixed income in US dollars or UK pounds , it makes right now much more sense to buy condo rather than renting. I never said that this is the best way to invest money but most of the retirees
are hardly active investors, anyway. At best, they have some quite conservative portfolio (like all bond) managed by some brokerages or investment banks.

Your popmous comment is , in fact, absolutely shallow. May be you can give us your own economic forecast. Then we will be able to compare your predictions with authors. I have to warn you, though, that if you do, I am going to nail you down the road with whatever bulshit you come up with.


ikarus, you are a bloody riot! I don't make forecasts and predictions. I leave that for people with crystal balls like your half-baked economic guru.

I never said that this is the best way to invest money but most of the retirees
are hardly active investors, anyway. At best, they have some quite conservative portfolio (like all bond) managed by some brokerages or investment banks.


You'd think the brighter amongst them would've worked out that the most effective thing they can do with their time, whilst their grey matter is up to it, is appraise their assets. Tying up significant capital in bricks and mortar in a country where legally you can only buy into condominiums and that condominium must be controlled by the native majority. Some of my well-to-do Thai friends caution that their compatriots have a habit of letting the Farang pay for the maintenance and they never bother to pay it. Perhaps that's why they are well-to-do.

What if that person happens to be right?On the balance of probabilities, and using sheer logic, that is so unlikely to be the case that (like belief in God) I'm prepared to live as if it won't happen. My personal preferences for economic analysis are Paul Krugman, Tim Harford, Steven Landsburg and Ross Gittins. Chicken Little doesn't feature in that list

[ikarus]

Wow, Homi. You presented a very respectable choices. I am especially impressed by your American choice (who is, in fact, pure Mathematician!). I always thought that you are one
of (very few) brilliant minds on this message boards and that is why you are hated so much
by "local mob".
However, I do prefer practitioners (especially with proven successful record of investments)
to journalists and theoreticians when it comes to economic forecast.
That is why my list would be more like George Soros, Jim Rogers, Mark Faber and, yes, "little chicken" mentioned in my previous post. Though he may not be so little (e.g. he served as economic advisor on Ron Paul presidential campaign). I cannot avoid a temptation to give another example of his work (see below).
Regarding the probabilities of forecasts to be successful, one should keep in mind that the guy
is talking solely about US. I think the probabilities are very high in this case. The situation in UK (though quie bad) is not identical to US. And, of course, Australia is a completely different story.
I mention it, because one of the Homi choices is an Australian journalist writing on economic topics.
Can I presume, Homi, that you are a reader of "Slate"?






U.S. Dominance Bites the Dust: How Wall Street Sold Itself Down the
River By Peter D. Schiff Guest Columnist

Over the past half-century, the United States has seen its global
dominance in dozens of industries slip away. One plum that we have
maintained is our gargantuan financial-services industry, whose
contribution to total gross domestic product (GDP) more than tripled
between 1947 and 2005. However, as a result of the current global
financial crisis - manufactured on Wall Street and exported to the
entire world - the United States may well lose its
financial-services crown, as well.

Once upon a time, America owned the automobile industry. But after
several decades of excessive taxation, onerous government
regulation, union extortion, and a crushing lack of foresight and
innovation, we no longer dominate an industry that we practically
invented. Just as Detroit no longer claims center stage in the
world automobile marketplace, soon New York will lose its position
at the center of global capital markets.

In the first place, the center of finance tends to go where the
money is. Right now, all the money is coming from Asia and the
Middle East - much of it from state-controlled investment pools
known as "sovereign wealth funds." When the United States was the
worldтАЩs greatest creditor nation - and its largest supplier of
capital - it made prefect sense for that capital to be allocated
here. But why should the Chinese send their savings to New York
only to have it re-invested back in China? WouldnтАЩt it make more
sense for the Chinese to allocate their capital locally, rather then
out-sourcing the job to us?

In the second place, when the strength of the U.S. greenback was
widely regarded, it made sense for global savers to allocate
substantial percentages of their savings to dollar-denominated
investments. This preference gave Wall Street a competitive
advantage in attracting capital. However, now that confidence in
the dollar has evaporated - perhaps permanently - this advantage has
been lost.

First Detroit, Now New York тАж It was once also true that investments
in the United States were encouraged by AmericaтАЩs respect for
private property, low taxes, and minimal government regulation. But
this advantage also has been lost as other nations have strengthened
their private-property laws, deregulated their economies, and
lowered their taxes - while we have done the opposite. As a result,
the returns on U.S.-based investments so far this century have far
underperformed those achieved in virtually every other major market.

Most importantly, Wall StreetтАЩs reputation, once its greatest asset,
is also in jeopardy. Just as Detroit lost its reputation for
high-quality cars, bankrupted dot-coms and worthless subprime debt
are creating similar problems for Wall Street. You canтАЩt expect to
keep your customers if you continually sell them shoddy merchandise.
Wall Street has spread hundreds of billions of dollars in losses
around the world and, in so doing, shattered its reputation with
some of its best customers.

It gets worse.

The Deal Wall Street Should NOT Have Made тАж In the last few years,
Wall Street not only cheated its customers, it cheated its
shareholders, as well. At one time, all of our major investment
banks - such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Lehman Brothers
Holdings Inc. (LEH), Morgan Stanley Inc. (MS), The Bear Stearns Cos.
Inc. (BSC), Smith Barney, Shearson, E.F. Hutton, Kidder Peabody and
Salomon Brothers - were private partnerships. However, during the
1990s they all went public [Of course, many merged first, so they no
longer exist as independent firms]. Goldman Sachs was the last to
go public in 1999. The transition allowed longtime Wall Street
partners to cash out, transferring future risks to new shareholders.
In doing so, they were able to capitalize on bubble valuations, yet
through lavish bonus compensation packages, were still able to keep
the lionтАЩs share of the profits for themselves. In other words,
they got to have their cake and eat it too.

As a result of this transfer of risks, the business models of
AmericaтАЩs leading financial institutions shifted, with profits
coming from riskier sources, such as proprietary trading and
structured finance. To line their own pockets, Wall Street firms
willingly exposed their shareholders to risks that they never would
have assumed when the companies were partnership-controlled and
using their own capital.

This moral hazard set the stage for the enormous losses shareholders
are now suffering: Those losses are a direct consequence of the
phony profits booked in prior years. The former Wall Street
partners-turned-employees have already walked away with huge IPO and
stock-option windfalls - as well as lavish bonuses paid on those
phantom profits. And shareholders are left holding the bag.

The coming crash will very clearly expose these conflicts of
interest, and the reaction will be severe. In the end, finance and
banking - like manufacturing - will stand as yet one more industry
where U.S. dominance was ceded to foreign competition. The new
financial capitals will likely be in Asia, the Middle East, and
Europe.

New York will certainly still have a role to play. But much like
Detroit, it will be a shadow of its former self.

However, I do prefer practitioners (especially with proven successful record of investments)
to journalists and theoreticians when it comes to economic forecast.
That is why my list would be more like George Soros, Jim Rogers, Mark Faber and, yes, "little chicken" mentioned in my previous post.

And poor Warren Buffett and Sir John Templeton don't figure into your picture of practitioners with successful records at all!

You are a laughable bag of hot air ikarus. I can't tell you how much I look forward to your pearls of investment wisdom. If ever you stop posting, where will I turn for a good laugh?

[Khor tose]

My specialty is not economics. I majored in science and Middle Eastern History. Many theories of how civilization rise and fall touch on economics. Some people like Marx's believed all of human history can be interpeted by economics. I am not in the same camp as Karl, but I do agree that economics are critical. I am definitely in the camp of economist Michael Rostovtzeff, Ludwig von Mises, and Bruce Bartlett, who attribute the collapse of the Roman Empire to its bad economic policies ("NovaRoma").
Jim Rogers clearly sees one of the same things happening in the US, that these three economist saw happening in the Roman Empire. I am forced to agree with his/their assessment. I suggest this latest article by Jim for your perusal where he address the devaluation of the dollar.
http://www.marketoracle.net/Article4248.html
Many of the economic problems that occurred in the Roman Empire all started with their devaluation of currency. Jim does not talk about the Roman Empire, so I would suggest reading or googling "NovaRoma".
Therefore, I am in the very bad position of not agreeing with Homointern, whom I also believe has one of the best minds on this board. On the other hand, I would not buy in Thailand, even if, I was planning to retire here. I agree with 555 that you should put your investments in economies with big local markets and manageable debts. I would suggest the EU or China.

Back to Ocean's Edge.

I have not seen John Botting come back with any information to contradict that it is still at the moment nothing more than a hole in the mud. If that is the case, I wonder if he could explain what possible worth this award could have, and why we should be congratulating his friends for a job well done?

My specialty is not economics. I majored in science and Middle Eastern History. Many theories of how civilization rise and fall touch on economics. Some people like Marx's believed all of human history can be interpeted by economics. I am not in the same camp as Karl, but I do agree that economics are critical. I am definitely in the camp of economist Michael Rostovtzeff, Ludwig von Mises, and Bruce Bartlett, who attribute the collapse of the Roman Empire to its bad economic policies ("NovaRoma").
Jim Rogers clearly sees one of the same things happening in the US, that these three economist saw happening in the Roman Empire. I am forced to agree with his/their assessment. I suggest this latest article by Jim for your perusal where he address the devaluation of the dollar.
http://www.marketoracle.net/Article4248.html
Many of the economic problems that occurred in the Roman Empire all started with their devaluation of currency. Jim does not talk about the Roman Empire, so I would suggest reading or googling "NovaRoma".
Therefore, I am in the very bad position of not agreeing with Homointern, whom I also believe has one of the best minds on this board. On the other hand, I would not buy in Thailand, even if, I was planning to retire here. I agree with 555 that you should put your investments in economies with big local markets and manageable debts. I would suggest the EU or China.

Khor tose, if you wish a comprehensive analysis of how societies collapse you should read Jared Diamond's book *Collapse*.

Although a case can be made from a strictly economic or military perspective, it is likely to be somewhat narrow.

Closer to home, Bangkok will be underwater in 15 to 20 years; hardly a good prospect for a condo owner there!

For me there is one overriding fact: that over 99% of species that ever lived are now extinct.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_extinction

Only a fool would bet against those odds.

Say there was a real estate market where you could make your bricks & mortar investment and re-let that for a good return without paying punitive taxes. Would it cover a rent close to Lumpini or in the nicer part of Jomtien. Would that not be a better bolt hole for that part of your portfolio than an overpriced condo. The square footage might be less but the rent would be much greater.

Now, which is the best off those markets.

Of course, that has nothing to do with the structuring of the rest of your pension/portfolio. It just inflation proofs a very significant area of expenditure.

[Khor tose]

I have not read this book--I may yet do so. I did read his Pulitzer Prize-winning book "Guns, Germs, and Steel". Sorry, while I found his perspective interesting, challenging, and novel, I do not completely agree with his conclusions. I am not alone. To discuss this here would take pages and pages. Enough to say that while I reject a total economic determinist like Marxs, I find I also reject a total geological determinist like Jarad. I do agree with you about condos on the beach, and do agree that the environmental factors are far more important then most historians have attributed to them. For that new perspective, if nothing else, I give Jarad great credit.

I suggest this latest article by Jim for your perusal where he address the devaluation of the dollar.
http://www.marketoracle.net/Article4248.html


Khor tose, I have taken up your suggestion and read the interview with Jimmy Rogers.
At once I was struck by his abject disgust with Arthur Burns (appointed by Richard Nixon), Alan Greenspan (first appointed by Ronald Reagan) and Ben Bernanke (appointed by America's current bozo in residence, G. W. Bush)
I found it noteworthy that Rogers had rather high praise for Paul Volcker who was appointed by Jimmy Carter.

Do I detect a political movement hell bent on the destruction of the USA within its Republican party?

Thanks for posting the URL which I found to be a great read.

"Buy low. Sell high." -Jimmy Rogers

[ikarus]

I suggest this latest article by Jim for your perusal where he address the devaluation of the dollar.
http://www.marketoracle.net/Article4248.html


Khor tose, I have taken up your suggestion and read the interview with Jimmy Rogers.
At once I was struck by his abject disgust with Arthur Burns (appointed by Richard Nixon), Alan Greenspan (first appointed by Ronald Reagan) and Ben Bernanke (appointed by America's current bozo in residence, G. W. Bush)
I found it noteworthy that Rogers had rather high praise for Paul Volcker who was appointed by Jimmy Carter.

Do I detect a political movement hell bent on the destruction of the USA within its Republican party?

Thanks for posting the URL which I found to be a great read.

"Buy low. Sell high." -Jimmy Rogers
It is very interesting that you were not familiar with views of Jim Rogers and yet pretending to be an expert on Economy.
I also do not appreciate your clear anti-intellectual stance towards my posts. I do not see any intellectual value in continuing any disscusions with you. You are on my ignore list from now on.

[Khor tose]

Raw sugar, you need not respond to ikurus. I have emailed the moderator and asked him to remove this clearly flaming reply. One learns by questioning, asking and challenging. I have not seen anywhere where you pretended to be an expert on economics, and in no way find any of your posts out of line. It is strange to me that someone who resorts to name calling would accuse someone else of being stupid. Maybe ikurus flies to close to the sun at this time of day.
As to your question, I have wondered the same thing. The Republican party seems to base its appeal on selling fear and establishing a climate of that promotes fear in the US.
However, I don't think they would promote a crash of the economy in the USA, especially on their watch. They remember Hoover and 20 years of Democratic Party rule that followed that disaster.

Raw sugar, you need not respond to ikurus. I have emailed the moderator and asked him to remove this clearly flaming reply. One learns by questioning, asking and challenging. I have not seen anywhere where you pretended to be an expert on economics, and in no way find any of your posts out of line. It is strange to me that someone who resorts to name calling would accuse someone else of being stupid. Maybe ikurus flies to close to the sun at this time of day.
As to your question, I have wondered the same thing. The Republican party seems to base its appeal on selling fear and establishing a climate of that promotes fear in the US.
However, I don't think they would promote a crash of the economy in the USA, especially on their watch. They remember Hoover and 20 years of Democratic Party rule that followed that disaster.

Khor tose, perhaps the Republicans are victims of the law of unintended consequences. If their misguided efforts didn't also extend to social engineering and control, I would be far less concerned.

Yes, you are quite right, what I know of economics I learned from my family who were deeply involved in the field and they lived through the Hoover period you made mention of. They taught me a great deal about the "dismal science" but totally forbid me to follow in their footsteps for which I am grateful.

The bitter irony of the ikarus diatribe is that he totally misread my thanking you for the Jimmy Rogers interview URL by irrationally assuming I had never heard of him. Ikarus may have a problem with reading comprehension (he badly misread a post by 555), or perhaps he is totally blinded by the psychotic rage he is prone to. Nevertheless, I find his reactions, not only those aimed at me, to be quite amusing.

The real irony of his last post to me was that my family had assets under Soros management during the 1970s, exactly the period that Jimmy Rogers was working there.

Also, Diamond's studies bring DNA investigations to my mind more than geology or geography. He is also a professor of medicine at UCLA. It was the DNA research only in the last decade or two that confirmed the near extinction of the human species about 70,000 years ago which before that was considered to be wild-eyed speculation.

Just to conclude, my own personal vision is not very optimistic in any area of human endeavor today. Even the enormous expectations in places like Brazil, China and India come with fantastic overhead yet to be considered. A great article from BBC today here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/p ... 366899.stm (http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/7366899.stm)
It seems its not only climate that is taking its toll, now even "The Green Revolution" has turned toxic.

"Let them eat cake!" -Marie Antoinette

Back to Ocean's Edge.

I have not seen John Botting come back with any information to contradict that it is still at the moment nothing more than a hole in the mud. If that is the case, I wonder if he could explain what possible worth this award could have, and why we should be congratulating his friends for a job well done?

He is hardly likely to - he published the identical advertorial ("Ocean's Edge Beachfront Condominium construction reached a significant point with the completion of the underground car park area. The post tensioned concrete slabs are now in place, serving as the ceiling to the car park and the floor of the apartments") in the latest edition of his magazine.

[Khor tose]

I have only read his one book. I know of the others, but have yet to get into them. They are on my to do list. The man is brilliant and multifaceted. I do know many anthropologist take issue with some of the claims he has made in his other books. It is a stretch to go from geology and physiology to anthropology. I liked your article, and it makes me a little bit glad that I do not have children. It is going to be a tough world out there in the not to distant future.
There is something that Homointern said that I do not understand. "On the balance of probabilities, and using sheer logic, that is so unlikely to be the case that (like belief in God) I'm prepared to live as if it won't happen." Does this mean that Homointern has faith in humanity, or that he has a set of facts that lead him to a different conclusion?
Me I see a very bad time coming, but I do have faith in humanity. One of my favorite quotes by Voltaire says, "Faith consists in believing when it is beyond the power of reason to believe." I have no faith in gods, but this insane belief that somehow humanity can get itself out of a terrible future.

There is something that Homointern said that I do not understand. "On the balance of probabilities, and using sheer logic, that is so unlikely to be the case that (like belief in God) I'm prepared to live as if it won't happen." Does this mean that Homointern has faith in humanity, or that he has a set of facts that lead him to a different conclusion?I'd have thought the phrase "balance of probabilities" indicates neither

[Khor tose]

Okay I googled it, and I understand. I must admit the expression was totally foreign to me. Thank you for the education.

I do know many anthropologist take issue with some of the claims he has made in his other books. It is a stretch to go from geology and physiology to anthropology.

Khor tose, to me the boundaries set by specialist disciplines create a prison for the most creative thinking. One philologist I follow closely spoke of "the danger that language poses to intellectual freedom." McLuhan never tired of warning of the pitfalls of overspecialization, intellectual or otherwise. No one would dare categorize as "specalist" the likes of a Leonardo, or a Buckminster Fuller and I suspect that is the reason that Buckminster Fuller never earned any university degree despite the fact he had untold honorary Doctorates bestowed on him for his undisputed and comprehensive genius. (In the case of this latter, in his mid-30s he stated that he actually had to unlearn everything he was ever taught in order to see the world aright and that included such presumed verities as mathematics, thoroughly discussed in *Synergetics*.) And finally, most specialists are interested in protecting their own narrow fields, and see the world only in terms of their own studies. "The crow wish'd every thing was black, the owl, that every thing was white." - William Blake

Who would have ever questioned the near miraculous nature of "The Green Revolution" which that BBC article shows has come back to haunt us as yet another oasis that shades a well of poison waters. It may in fact be the very reason we have the expression "Be careful what you wish for", like the wish to buy a condo in Bangkok.