Coup in 2008?

[gearguy]

"I cannot guarantee that there will not be a coup in 2008, just like I cannot rule out a natural disaster."

* Thai Defense Minister GEN. BOONRAWD SOMTAS
* refusing to disavow military intervention after an opposition win in Dec. 23's national election

I would have thought that, after the disaster of this coup running the country, it will be a long time before the military are foolish enough to mount another coup.

Then again I would not put money on it. The capacity of military to be foolish seems limitless.

[krobbie]

In the last 75 years there has been 17 coups in Thailand. What are the chances?

The Bangkok rumour mill held that the last coup was undertaken in part because HMTK and Prem didn't believe they could trust Thaksin in the event of the King's death while Thaksin was still prime minister. That hasn't changed. The same rumour mill now has the King nominating his three-year-old grandson as next King, with Virajalongkorn and Sirindhorn as joint Regents. The succession is one of the big uncertainties. Today's paper is full of politicians who hope to form the coalition government posturing about their loyalty to the King - http://www.bangkokpost.net/News/29Dec2007_news01.php

Not a wowpow cut'n'paste job

[Lunchtime O'Booze]

all those gorgeous soldiers in their uniforms.
:bud:
Beats the Pattaya Gay Festival any day.

I would say that another coup is almost a certainty. I will go a step further and say that if Thaksin does attempt a return that he would not live long enough to gain office again.

I would say that another coup is almost a certainty. I will go a step further and say that if Thaksin does attempt a return that he would not live long enough to gain office again.

And i would disagree. Thaksin is a smart cookie. His cronies will probably have all the anti Thaksin Army people removed (retired /bought off etc) long before he returns. He wont return as quickly as some would have you believe either.

I would say that another coup is almost a certainty. I will go a step further and say that if Thaksin does attempt a return that he would not live long enough to gain office again.

And i would disagree. Thaksin is a smart cookie. His cronies will probably have all the anti Thaksin Army people removed (retired /bought off etc) long before he returns. He wont return as quickly as some would have you believe either.

For what it is worth Oogleman, I believe that you have hit the nail right on the head with what you have said above, as it is my opinion that your predictions; are totally correct.

One thing I don't think Thaksin has ever had any desire whatsoever to become, is a martyr. Why should he, or need to become one, with the wealth he has, along with his many homes scattered around the globe? Not forgetting also of course, the adulation he still receives from many here in Thailand, as well as at least half of Manchester, for what he is doing and has already done at City.

Like you, I feel that Thaksin's return will be much later than is currently being forecast. As you have already correctly stated,Thaksin is a smart cookie, a fact for which there should be no doubt whatsoever in any ones mind. He will return home for certain in my opinion, but the time for him to return, will be chosen very carefully. The person responsible for choosing that time, will be Thaksin and Thaksin alone. That time may well not even be, until a certain extremely revered person, is no longer of this world. We shall see.

On a lighter note Oogleman, as someone that resides in the UK, I was wondering if you could tell us whether or not the major bookmakers over there, are offering odds as to when Thaksin will return to Thailand. They usually run a book in situations like this and, have run far crazier ones than this situation in the past.

Perhaps someone should start a poll for the members here, to see when they believe he will return. That is of course, for those of us us that give a damn. From what I have seen in many posts on this forum, the majority of posters not residing here, seem more concerned with when it will be time for them to return to the LOS, rather than Thaksin.

As someone that remembers all those years ago, when I used to count the months and then the days when it would be my time to travel once again to Thailand, I understand their sentiments completely. Furthermore, I can't think of one good reason, as to why they shouldn't be more concerned about their own return.

Chok Dee Oogleman. http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u152/GeorgeThai/beerchug.gif A Very Happy New Year to you. I look forward to again having the pleasure of your company, when it is once more your time to return to Thailand. I am positive that when the time comes for your return, it will be a time that is a long while before that of the Chairman of Manchester City. http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u152/GeorgeThai/biggrinangel.gif


George.

The Thai mind remains a complete mystery to me. It seems to me thinking is so compartmentalized, a result of the educational system, that no one ever puts all of the pieces together. Taksin's reincarnated TRT wins... but the same people who voted for PPP and in doing so totally repudiated the coup and its military leaders continue to pledge eternal love and loyalty to the one who green lighted the coup. They charge Taksin with corruption and have an article in the Bangkok Post about a police general that is so in love with Ferraris that he has three, and no one blinks an eye and questions how an honest cop could afford three Ferraris.

The religion teaches that all must live out their Karma....so the rich and privileged actually believe that they have an obligation to live extravagant life styles while ignoring the dreams and needs of the poor, and the poor believe that they are to remain poor and work to earn merit for the next life. How brilliantly the religion has been subverted by the State to keep the poor in their subservient position and re-enforce the power and wealth of the ruling class.

The past predicts the future. A new semi democratic government will rise and the instant that its policies threaten the ruling class......we will get to start all over again. Given the King's advancing age and the confusion that will follow, I can understand why the Thai military has always been so supportive of their counterparts in Burma.

As far as I am concerned anyone that can order the death of 1500 without so much as a trial should be dealt with in the same way. His down fall was his ego and it will continue to be his achilles heal. I just can't see the generals letting him return to power.

[Bob]

As far as I am concerned anyone that can order the death of 1500 without so much as a trial should be dealt with in the same way.

If Shinawatra ordered the extra-judicial killings, he should be indicted and tried; but until he's charged - or how about until somebody comes up with a scintilla of evidence that he was aware that the police and soldiers would murder suspects - saying he ordered the deaths is simply unsupported rhetoric (and badly reflects one's bias).

To me, Shinawatra is only different from the rest of the corrupt Thai politicians and the elite in the military (and elsewhere) in that (1) he was rich before taking office and (2) he was the only Thai politician in recent history that ever did a damn thing for the poor of Thailand. So, in my view, he was better than most of them.

The papers where full of his war on drugs and how he promised to rid the coutry of drugs. There is no doubt the orders were from him and him alone. For some reason you all seem to just pass of the deaths of so many as just another political booboo. Guess I am alone on this one but hopefully the wrongs will be righted.

As far as I am concerned anyone that can order the death of 1500 without so much as a trial should be dealt with in the same way.

If Shinawatra ordered the extra-judicial killings, he should be indicted and tried; but until he's charged - or how about until somebody comes up with a scintilla of evidence that he was aware that the police and soldiers would murder suspects - saying he ordered the deaths is simply unsupported rhetoric (and badly reflects one's bias).

To me, Shinawatra is only different from the rest of the corrupt Thai politicians and the elite in the military (and elsewhere) in that (1) he was rich before taking office and (2) he was the only Thai politician in recent history that ever did a damn thing for the poor of Thailand. So, in my view, he was better than most of them.

Although it pains me not to be able to agree with you Luvthai and instead, find myself having to agree with Bob, which must surely be a first, I must say that I make him 100 per cent correct in everything he has said above. Only joking Bob by the way. My feelings with regard to Thaksin when he was Prime Minister and what he accomplished whilst in office, are also exactly the same as Bob's.

Whilst mentioning politicians that have been responsible for wrongful deaths, something Thaksin is yet to be found guilty of as Bob also correctly states above; perhaps one should not be in too much of a hurry, to forget the lives that were also lost, due to the reckless and irresponsible actions of a certain other politician. Those deaths which he was responsibe for, included many of his own countrymen and were as a result of invading another country. He justified this invasion on the pretense of trying to discover something, that had never ever existed.

Whilst Saddam was no angel, I believe he shares something in common with Lee Harvey Oswald. That being, they were both used as Patsy's in the form of diversions, to prevent the truth of what was really going on in both situations, from becoming known by anyone else other than a few of those at the top.

By the way, talking of Oswald has reminded me of the time when I visited the Texas Book Store Depository Museum, when I was in Dallas a few years ago. I must say, I was truly amazed at the accuracy that was on display there, with regard to the Kennedy's assassination. This accuracy I speak of, also includes the fact, that Oswald wasn't there at the time. http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u152/GeorgeThai/whistle.gif

Before closing, I would like to say that I believe your bias against Thaksin has been clearly evident in all of your posts about him, along with the hate I think you have of the man. You will just have to console yourself in the knowledge, that like many others, you will be able to return to the LOS a lot sooner than he will be able to. http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u152/GeorgeThai/biggrinangel.gif


Chok Dee Luvthai and a Very Happy New Year to you. http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u152/GeorgeThai/beerchug.gif


Regards,


George. http://i167.photobucket.com/albums/u152/GeorgeThai/Peace.gif

[Bob]

With George agreeing with me (is the world ending or something?!? :cyclopsani: ), a little perspective is in order. Nothing in life is very simple.
A few years back, the Thai elite viewed that the country was in serious trouble with the drug (yaba) issue. They were expecting almost a billion yaba pills that year to float into Thailand from Burma, the prisons were filling with drug offenders, and too many kids were killing themselves (and others) using it. Shinawatra is from Chiangmai and the weekly papers and news reports correctly described the serious problem of interdicting the smugglers, most of them from Burma. Thai soldiers patrolled the area (still do) and were occasionally coming upon bands of smugglers better armed then they were. Reports of the heavily armed smugglers and a few dead soldiers hit the press. And there were reports (largely veiled references in the Thai press because the Thais just don't have the constitution to say anything to offend anybody, no matter how obvious the situation) that the smuggling was directly supported by the Burmese government (and, in turn, which financially propped up that horrible dictatorship).
Yaba is an especially pernicious drug and has ruined thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of lives in Thailand. I'm no fan of western drug programs but yaba is very nasty stuff. I've known too many Thai friends who are dead as a result of it (killed by fellow drug dealers, jumping off dormitory buildings while fucked up on the stuff, in prison for committing crimes to obtain money to buy yaba, etc.). Nobody is ever going to convince me that serious amphetamines do anything but cause terrible damage to societies - and most of that impact is on the poor of that society. And I'd venture a guess that half of the crime rate in Thailand (including Pattaya) is directly related to yaba (even in the US, one can relate more than half of the armed robberies, home invasions, and assaults on serious drug use). [For the record, a drug such as marijuana, which probably ought to be legalized, is certainly not a serious or dangerous drug]
With that background, who can blame Shinawatra or the Thai government from attempting a major effort to try to eradicate or lessen the problem. The army was given the task and there's probably little doubt that summary executions took place in the field. If it was self-defense, I'm all for it; if it was outright murder in some cases, somebody ought to go to jail for that.
It's my guess (note that I am not going to state as "fact" that which I'm conjecturing about) that the policy was set in the government and Shinawatra certainly supported that. I suspect the government gave the general orders and eventually it became obvious to somebody at some level that the troops were going overboard with their attacks. Maybe the military was occasionally asked about their tactics and, whether the military lied about their activities or the government aided unjustified killings is simply unknown. Yet, in luvthai's defense, there certainly came a time when the government and Shinawatra knew or should have known that a very suspicious level of killings were taking place. And the operations were toned down, possibly because of the pressure from the press and/or the government. Nevertheless, it ought to be investigated but I'd suggest waiting for the evidence before tossing any particular government figure to the gallows.

For what it is worth Oogleman, I believe that you have hit the nail right on the head with what you have said above, as it is my opinion that your predictions; are totally correct.Are you making a book yourself, George? What odds are you offering and how can I place a bet?

[Hmmm]

With that background, who can blame Shinawatra or the Thai government from attempting a major effort to try to eradicate or lessen the problem. The army was given the task and there's probably little doubt that summary executions took place in the field. If it was self-defense, I'm all for it; if it was outright murder in some cases, somebody ought to go to jail for that.
It's my guess (note that I am not going to state as "fact" that which I'm conjecturing about) that the policy was set in the government and Shinawatra certainly supported that. I suspect the government gave the general orders and eventually it became obvious to somebody at some level that the troops were going overboard with their attacks. Maybe the military was occasionally asked about their tactics and, whether the military lied about their activities or the government aided unjustified killings is simply unknown. Yet, in luvthai's defense, there certainly came a time when the government and Shinawatra knew or should have known that a very suspicious level of killings were taking place. And the operations were toned down, possibly because of the pressure from the press and/or the government. Nevertheless, it ought to be investigated but I'd suggest waiting for the evidence before tossing any particular government figure to the gallows.

I believe that the circumstances surrounding the extrajudicial killings are clearer than you suggest ...
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/ ... l&offset=0 (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/football/premier_league/manchester_city/article3004757.ece?token=null&offset=0)

[Bob]

I believe that the circumstances surrounding the extrajudicial killings are clearer than you suggest ...
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/ ... l&offset=0 (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/football/premier_league/manchester_city/article3004757.ece?token=null&offset=0)

While I don't claim to be an expert on the matter, that article is hardly authoritative (and leaves out anything one might call "evidence"). The so-called drug war started in the beginning of February of 2003 and lasted for 3 months. In early February of 2003, a 9-year-old was shot dead by police and three officers were arrested and charged with murder. Quoting a February 25, 2003, article by the London Independent:
"The Prime Minister seemed upset by the details of the killing of the nine-year-old. 'Officers are not authorised to simply kill people,' Mr Thaksin said. 'I will hold a meeting with senior officers to send a clear signal that whoever makes a mistake won't be protected.'"

I'm all for prosecuting Shinawatra if he or his top aides authorized extra-judicial killings; however, until there's some evidence of that, saying the circumstances (meaning the background facts?) are clear doesn't make it so.

[krobbie]

Perhaps the Police just decided themselves to start killing people willy nilly as they thought they might be drug takers. I think not. The orders came from upon high, not from some joe brownshirt.

krobbie

[Bob]

Perhaps the Police just decided themselves to start killing people willy nilly as they thought they might be drug takers. I think not. The orders came from upon high, not from some joe brownshirt.
krobbie

Although you might be absolutely right, it doesn't matter what we think. Absent some evidence, we'll never know. Given the tendency of most governments to leak secrets and given Shinawatra was ousted last year, I'm a little surprised that somebody (presuming they have some evidence of this alleged wrong-doing) hasn't come forward (the junta and interim government people have suggested Shinawatra is guilty of many things although only few economic-related charges have been filed).

[Marsilius]

"Given the tendency of most governments to leak secrets and given Shinawatra was ousted last year, I'm a little surprised that somebody (presuming they have some evidence of this alleged wrong-doing) hasn't come forward (the junta and interim government people have suggested Shinawatra is guilty of many things although only few economic-related charges have been filed)." - Quote from Bob, above.

No need to be surprised at all, Bob. Hiding the evidence is what careful criminals do. After all, look at the greatest of the lot - Adolf Hitler. He ensured that there was not a single scrap of evidence that he actually ordered (or even knew about) the murder of six million Jews, so allowing his apologists (David Irving et. al.) to go on claiming to this day that he was entirely innocent of the crime.

Even so, however, the fact remains that he created and foistered an atmosphere where such actions were, at the very least, encouraged and where subordinates carrying out such actions (with, of course, the full resources of the state behind them) were lauded for what was called "working towards the Fuhrer's aims" (I've forgotten the German word for it).

Sounds pretty much like Thaksin to me!

Come on get real !!! I really can't believe that anyone, except a Johnny Cochen attorney type, would even think of arguing that that Taksin and the other members of the ruling elite would be unaware of the activities of a police and military that they have invested a lifetime in gaining influence and control over.

Summary judgments and punishment are common in Thailand. One of my good friends, and a poster on this board, told of catching a thief in his home recently. When the police arrived they tasered the thief repeatedly and then beat him before taking him to jail. Extra judicial punishment, including death, have been and continue to be common.....and the government can put an end to it in and instant if they choose too. So far that not only has the choice to end extra judicialpunishment not been made....but it continues to be approved and supported by the people who hold power.

It's not the criminals hiding the evidence; it is the government holding all of the evidence and releasing what ever part of the evidence they chose according to the political needs of the day.

I really find it hard to believe how naive some people continue to be after having lived a lifetime watching governments at work, be it Taksin or Bush.