Baht may soar by 16% after elections 23rd December

Thailand May Lift Capital Controls, RBS Report Says (Update1)
Bloomberg - By Yumi Teso


Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's central bank may lift its capital controls after national elections on Dec. 23, a move that may boost the currency by about 16 percent next year, Royal Bank of Scotland Plc said in a report.
The Bank of Thailand imposed restrictions in December on foreign investment to curb currency gains, causing the baht to trade at a higher exchange rate overseas than in Thailand. Elections will help revive consumer confidence that has dropped to a five-year low following a military coup in September 2006.
``When they imposed the controls, there was a little bit of political turbulence, and now they are going to elect the new democratic government,'' said Chia Woon Khien, a local markets strategist for non-Japan Asia in Hong Kong at RBS. ``The currency will continue to improve.''
The baht was little changed at 33.82 onshore against the dollar as of 12:02 p.m. in Bangkok, while the currency gained 0.5 percent to 31.18 offshore, according to data compiled by Bloomberg......

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the thai finance people/government have got their fingers on the currency markets. Over the past few weeks, the dollar to the bht has hardly moved - they are manipulating the markets as much as they can. If the bht does rise by 16% ish, that will make the dollar to baht about 26-27. However, the UK pound has flucuated quite a bit - probably because they buy dollars or sell them as appropriate. So, I suspect the UK pound will not loose ground as we MAY see with the baht to the dollar after the election.

It's instructive to paste this Analyst's name into Google. Seems to have worked for a lorra lorra banks unless that is a common name amongst financial pundits.

My impression is a more highly valued baht (ie having to pay more USD, Euros or whatever for BHT100) is exactly what the Thai government, the Bank of Thailand and practically everybody else in Thailand does not want. It's bad for exports and tourism (sex and otherwise), which are the mainstays of the Thai economy. There's just too much competition now from other Asian countries for the Thai economy to survive a 16% (God knows where that figure came from) higher baht.
On the other hand, the Bot's 1997 attempts to manipulate the baht were a disaster. However it now has more foreign currency reserves and, hopefully, more experience. Let's hope they can keep the baht down. Otherwise I cannot imagine how I am going to explain to boys to accept a 20% reduction in their fees.

If you use typical Harvard School of Economics theories, they will understand.

Baht may soar by 16% after elections 23rd December

That presupposes an election. I am not a betting man, but what are the odds on another coup, and what would that do to the rates?

That presupposes an election. I am not a betting man, but what are the odds on another coup, and what would that do to the rates?Whatever happens you can be sure that the Master of Cut'N'Paste (wowpow) will have a post on it in SGT

Baht may soar by 16% after elections 23rd December

That presupposes an election. I am not a betting man, but what are the odds on another coup, and what would that do to the rates?

gwm4asian,

Be no contest at all.

If the Party of the present deputy prime minister wins.

If he doesn't, he has already stated another military coup could not be ruled out.

They don't really have sufficient education to care about what happens to the Baht rates, they've got the Tanks!

That presupposes an election. I am not a betting man, but what are the odds on another coup, and what would that do to the rates?[/quote]

The BoT will manipulate it like they are doing now!

Homiterm: Although the BoT are in a better position than 97 with regards to reserves and other things, I don't think they will be dumping sterling or even euro - this is going to hit the dollar, that is the currency they have been aiming at recently.

Homiterm: Although the BoT are in a better position than 97 with regards to reserves and other things, I don't think they will be dumping sterling or even euro - this is going to hit the dollar, that is the currency they have been aiming at recently.If only I knew what this could possibly mean, and why it is addressed to me

Homiterm: Although the BoT are in a better position than 97 with regards to reserves and other things, I don't think they will be dumping sterling or even euro - this is going to hit the dollar, that is the currency they have been aiming at recently.If only I knew what this could possibly mean, and why it is addressed to me

Woops! It should be "Jonti"

I agree WhiteDesire. It's all very unpredictable. Some bank Forex dealers are now holding USD against a fall in USD. Seems rather odd. Banks used to treat their Forex dealers with an awe appropriate to ancient Druids. Perhaps treating some of the Forex people like Rasputin would be better.
I'm sure the BoT doesn't want the Baht to rise, but I don't know if it can stop the Baht doing that. Another coup probably would. So, and it's perhaps more likely, would a hung parliament.
In the meantime, money already in Baht is probably an even bet. Other even bets might be buying air tickets now and buying gold. Any Thai boy, and most other Thais, happily accept gold. I've even seen Thais checking the quality of gold with their teeth. Too hard means it's only plated? So look for toothless Thai boys?

... you are funny lol ....

I have this vision of some Thai boy opening his mouth and saying "look what I have saved for the future". When he is 90, he has no teeth.