US dollar

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7082668.stm

The above reports on the dollar breaking through the 2.10 barrier to the UK ┬г.

And the chinese and europeans are likely to sell dollars in favour of other currencies, along with oil still rising. Although the dollar to the bht hasn't really changed over the past week, been static, which means at the moment its not affecting the asian currencies, the dollar is falling only against european currencies, which means an increase in bht to the UK┬г.

With the US certain on keeping interest rates, and oil on the increase, within the next few months I bet we will see 75 bht to the ┬г again.

What I wonder is with the US dollar going down so fast against other currencies worldwide, how can it keep this up with the chinese yuan. At some point, something is going to "give".

[jinks]

For All your rates according to the Bangkok Bank.

CLICK HERE (http://www.bangkokbank.com/Bangkok+Bank/Personal+Banking/Foreign+Exchange/FX+Rates/default.htm)

I knew it was time for White Desire's monthly. How are things in the City, dear boy?

I knew it was time for White Desire's monthly. How are things in the City, dear boy?

Uh oh... Dear " White Desire ". Homintern do the most disgusting things when she is in love ! :clown:

I knew it was time for White Desire's monthly. How are things in the City, dear boy?

Still boring, wish I was out there in Pattaya!!

As for Baziel's comments - uh!

Incidently I think the dollar is being propped up, certainly by the bht, as it has been roughly the same to the dollar for the past week.

Dollar vs. the baht has been the same for a month or more.

I hear on the news that the dollar value has fallen as a result of the rise in the price of gasoline.

I think that the Thai baht has fallen also as it has not moved much to the US$ but has fallen compared to other major currencies. Why I have no idea.

Have a look at jinx's link to Bangkok Bank's rates. The UK Pound is now over 70 baht.

Heavy investors in the USA are moving and naturally go for reasonably steady currencies such as the Euro, Pound, C$ and A$ which pushes the value of those currencies up?

One thing that I find curious is that I seem to get much the same rate as the Thai banks give when I use my ATM card or Credit card. Why do the currency exchange sites still show the rates "offshore" which is much lower e.g. UK Pound about 65 baht on Yahoo finance?

French president warns US it cannot allow currency to collapse as Europe suffers from euro's rise, reports Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - Telegraph

The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has warned the United States Congress that the US risks triggering "economic war" if it attempts to devalue its way out of trouble by allowing a relentless slide in the dollar.
# Credit crunch crisis in full in our special section
# News, views and tools on interest rates

President Nicolas Sarkozy fears 'economic warтАЩ as dollar slides
Tough talking: President Nicolas Sarkozy of France warned Congress in Washington yesterday

The stunning remarks came as the greenback plunged to a record low of $1.4731 against the euro, causing a chorus of angry protests from industrial leaders in France and Italy. The dollar breached $2.10 against sterling for the first time since the early Thatcher years in 1981. On Wall Street the Dow tumbled 246.40 to 13,414.50.

Mr Sarkozy spared no sensitivities as he launched into a full-blown attack on the Bush Administration. "The dollar cannot remain solely the problem of others. If we are not careful, monetary disarray could morph into economic war. We would all be its victims," he said.

"Those who admire the nation that has built the world's greatest economy and has never ceased trying to persuade the world of the advantages of free trade expect her to be the first to promote fair exchange rates." Stephen Jen, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said the dollar fall had become alarming. "This has been driven so far by Middle Eastern and Asian central banks, but there is a risk that hedge funds will start to join in, and they can be very powerful," he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j ... rko108.xml (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/11/08/cnsarko108.xml)

[cottmann]

French president warns US it cannot allow currency to collapse as Europe suffers from euro's rise, reports Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - Telegraph

The USA is doing what it berated Asian countries for doing in 1997 - buying its way out of trouble by devaluing its currency! Another case of "Do what I say, not what I do," from the US.

cottoman - are you seriously suggesting that the Asian crash of 1997 was planned> That's a new thought - and it was Thailand that started it all.

Being British, I am in no position to talk, as the once mighty British Pound was worth 8.5 US dollars ( a very long time ago ) and gradually devalued to 1.5. Deliberately devaluing or undervaluing currency when you don't need to do so to survive is very nasty - as the Americans keep telling the Chinese. It is one reason why the European Union was so keen to have a common currency and one reason why Britain did not join.

Most responsible countries have always made efforts to control any devaluing of their currency. The current US regime are not so inclined. With the US being a still massive economy, over 30% of the world GDP, the whole commercial world is adversely effected by this action.

So what you have is the richest most powerful country that the world has even known staying that way at the expense of the rest of the world. Nothing new there then?

A major cause is the US overspending and borrowing. I wonder why? Bill Clinton left the books beautifully balanced. Now the National Debt is mountainous. How? What puzzles me is why the American Forces are so incredibly expensive to run?

What puzzles me is why the American Forces are so incredibly expensive to run?
That's easy. It's the cost of all the medals and other unnecessary decorations they dole out with the daily rations for the most minor of achievements! :salute:

[Smiles]

There is an interesting article in the Globe this morning which discusses ~ in non-economist's language ~ the reasons for the crash of the American dollar. The article specifically mentions the Canadian dollar's precipitous rise lately, but the article could easily be about just about any other currency which is being affected by the same phenomena . . . i.e. just about everyone else's money.

The Loonie has been on a tear since 2002 when one Canadian dollar fetched 62 cents. This morning I would receive $1.08 US for that same Loonie . . . and most of the last 15 cents worth of appreciation has been this year. This is a huge and costly big deal for Canadian manufactuers who ship into the States ... a very difficult time for them, and there are so many.
On the other hand, for 'folks-like-me' who are on the cusp of retiring and thinking about living long-term in a foreign country, or manufactuers who buy raw material from the States and ship it elsewhere, it's a terrific bonus.

How long it will last is of course 'The Question' ...

Anyway, for those interested in such things, the article below is informative. Except perhaps for the "oil" issue discussion in the latter part of the article, which is rather Canada-related, you could easily substitute your own home countrys name for 'Canada':


Dollar Q & A

"If it was okay to cheer when it hit par, is it now time to be concerned?"

BRIAN MILNER

From Thursday's Globe and Mail


Most Canadians who are not in the export business cheered when the loonie reached par with the U.S. dollar. But now it has headed to unheard-of heights at unprecedented speed, leaving plenty of concerns about the future.

Why is this different? The real question is why the U.S. dollar has taken so long to fall to a level that would better reflect the heavy indebtedness and poor fiscal management of the U.S. government. To finance huge budget and trade deficits, the U.S. Treasury has had to borrow heavily from abroad, making the currency vulnerable to any outbreak of pessimism about U.S. economic prospects. And as the greenback has gone into free fall, other world currencies have risen, but none more than the loonie, which has benefited from strong fiscal policies and the boom in oil and other commodities. But a 15-cent jump in just two months is unheard of. That would be unusual even in five years.

Where do the Canadian and U.S. dollars go from here? The U.S. dollar has more room to fall, as people around the world lose faith in the currency. When Brazilian super-model Gisele Bundchen refuses to accept U.S. dollars as payment, imagine what happens when the Bank of China decides that it too needs to reduce exposure to U.S. dollars. The Canadian dollar may have hit a trading ceiling at $1.10, considering its rapid dip late yesterday. But it could just as easily resume its upward march.

Can the G8 or central banks do anything? Not really, unless the markets believe that governments are prepared to back such intervention with policies that would make it effective. Canada and other major U.S. trading partners would have to slash interest rates, which none of them wants to do because of legitimate concerns about inflation. Washington, meanwhile, would have to increase rates and adopt tough measures to curb government spending. Not only do U.S. policy makers lack the stomach for such drastic moves, they do not even seem overly perturbed about the weakness of their currency. That's because it is giving a badly needed boost to their beleaguered manufacturers.


The greenback unwound

What is the role of oil? The Canadian dollar has become a so-called petro-currency, because rising oil prices mean a higher trade surplus. This is definitely a plus for the dollar. But it's important to remember that, like any commodity, oil can go down too. It was only about $50 a barrel last January.

Could the U.S. economy melt down? Many economists say the chances of a recession are now about 50 per cent, and housing is already in recession. But the U.S. economy has proved remarkably resilient in the past and is benefiting from the cheaper currency. Economic growth has been surprisingly good for the past two quarters and jobs are still being created. So it's more likely that we'll see a slower economy, not a crippled one.

What is China's role in this? China's booming economy and gargantuan trade surplus with the United States mean that it has accumulated a vast pile of U.S. dollars тАФ $1.4-trillion to be exact. Merely musing about diversifying these foreign exchange reserves was enough to send the greenback reeling. If China goes ahead and rebalances its holdings by plowing into the euro or the yen, it could have a profound impact on the global economy.

Why are currency traders interested in our dollar? Speculators don't care about whether Canada's economic fundamentals justify the current strength of the dollar. They also don't care whether the currency is going to be weaker several years down the road. It hasn't shot up 25 per cent this year because of faith in Canada's future. As CIBC World Markets economist Avery Shenfeld observes: "Currency traders don't have to be believers in the Canadian dollar for the next four years. They only have to be believers for the next four hours."

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet ... iness/home (http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071108.wdollarquestions08/BNStory/Business/home)

I'm watching for Canadian pro hockey players to start trying to re-negotiate their salaries into Canadian dollars. They've been paid in US dollars now for 30 years and have reaped a benefit not many other Canadians were able to. Now the skate is on the other foot . . . and I'm on a 'Greed Watch'. :blackeye:

And for a slightly more doomsdayish scenario, try these opinion pieces (in the same paper): DOOMSDAY 1 (http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071108.wrdollarcoxe1108/BNStory/Business/home) . . . and . . . DOOMSDAY 2 (http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071108.wrdollarunwinding08/BNStory/Business/home?cid=al_gam_mostview)


Cheers ...

As for Baziel's comments - uh!

uh ! :clown:

http://www.sawatdee-gay-thailand.com/forum/weblogs/upload/44/543992003473394dc21bbf.jpg

[Smiles]

baziel .... not only a troll, but incomprehensible to boot. Pay no heed to harmless dorks.

Cheers ...

[cottmann]

cottoman - are you seriously suggesting that the Asian crash of 1997 was planned> That's a new thought - and it was Thailand that started it all.

See　http://www.time.com/time/magazine/1997/int/971103/asia.how_to_kill_a.html　
http://www.malaysia.net/lists/sangkanci ... 00198.html (http://www.malaysia.net/lists/sangkancil/1997-07/msg00198.html)

The "trigger" for the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was an overheated real estate market in Thailand, and the "trigger" for the present situation in the US is the crisis in the sub-prime loans for real estate. Deja vu all over again.


.. With the US being a still massive economy, over 30% of the world GDP, the whole commercial world is adversely effected by this action.

IMF and World Bank figures suggest is it around 27% and shrinking.



...What puzzles me is why the American Forces are so incredibly expensive to run?

Contractor fraud, mostly, coupled with Pentagon incompetence and White House complicity. Remember the $435 hammer and the $640 toilet seat famous in the 1980s and, my favorite, $1,118.26 for a spare plastic cap for a navigator's stool on a B-52 bomber, worth about two cents? It continued into the present century: $403 for a metal cylinder that normally costs $25 (a 1,532% markup); a $47 bell priced at $714 and a 57┬в screw that cost the government $76. Halliburton - VP Cheney's (former) company overcharged the Pentagon $61 million on a no-bid oil contract in Iraq.

baziel .... not only a troll, but incomprehensible to boot. Pay no heed to harmless dorks.

Cheers ...

Napoleon not heed to harmless dorks !

It's all just harmless fun Mr Napoleon !

Napoleon does posting this ! Basically to prove his " sucessively " ! :clown:
I thought when you go on an anti-depressant it was suppose to help balance your unbalanced hormones and chemicals ! :flower:

[Smiles]

You gotta love baziel: four sentences ... one bolded, four exclamation marks, plus two smilies for emphasis.
And I'm unbalanced. / LOL (Hardly a need to get into 'spelling' ... that would be unfair).

Cheers ...

[ikarus]

It is interesting that in the thread about the "crash" of US dollar attracted almost no Americans but we see a lot of currency "experts" like White Desire, Cottman, Smiles, Wowpow who (as usual) have no idea what they are talking about.
What you guys need to know is that UK pound, Canadian dollar and other crap are going down. Asian currencies (including Jap Yen and Thai baht ) going up. The guys in HK has a great option to keep their funds in Chinese Yuan (which make a lot of sense even though interest payment is very low by now). For others it is more difficult to preserve the value of savings but, of course, possible. Me I talked about the devalue of dollar and importance of currency diversification for ages , including this board. By now, I cannot care less what happens with US dollar (or any other particular currency for that matter).

You gotta love baziel:

Yes ! :flower:

Hardly a need to get into 'spelling' ... that would be unfair.

I'm probably not even spelling your name right ! :clown:

[Impulse]

Im American an Im pissed off.My retirement in Thailand will suck with this piece of crap dollar.We Americans are getting what we deserve for having elected the imbicile,however most of the red necks who voted for the idiot dont travel so they probably wont notice the weak dollar. Im afraid of a major devaluation coming soon as the rest of the world would love to see us suffer,by using other currencies and replacing the dollar. people worry about their stupid taxes going up,its the inflation tax that is the killer. Rocket(who wishes his pension would be paid in any currency other than the dollar)

... should be better then ... hopefully

Im American the rest of the world would love to see us suffer,

:cheers: :cheers: :cheers:

Tha Nation
Foreign reserves hit $100 billion
Central bank buying dollars in order to slow wild career of Thai currency
Published on November 10, 2007

Thailand's international reserves have swelled to a record, zooming past the US$100-billion (Bt3.4 trillion) mark as the Bank of Thailand sucks up dollars from the foreign-exchange market to rein in the galloping baht.

Gross foreign reserves of $82.6 billion plus net forward positions of $17.7 billion brought total reserves to $100.3 billion as of November 2, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) reported yesterday.

Although the central bank imposed capital controls in the second half of last December, it has still come under tremendous pressure to buy up the dollar to curb the baht's rise for fear of undermining the country's overall competitiveness.

Net reserves have grown by a staggering $26.4 billion this year, reflecting the huge hoard of dollars that the central bank has accumulated in its struggle to manage the baht.

BOT Governor Tarisa Watanagase said that like other central banks in the region, the BOT has been intervening in the forex market to stabilise its currency, and that has kept the baht moving in tandem with its regional peers.

The baht has risen by 6 per cent against the dollar so far this year, compared with 4.9 per cent for the Chinese yuan, 5.9 per cent for the Singaporean dollar and 6 per cent for the Malaysian ringgit. The Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah and Indian rupee have experienced double-digit appreciation.

"The Bank of Thailand has been doing a fine job in stabilising the baht and managing foreign-exchange reserves. Our currency has been fairly valued against regional currencies over the last few months, a formere central banker said...

Full article:
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/11 ... 055578.php (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/11/10/headlines/headlines_30055578.php)

... someone had to be propping it up. What's next in the currency situation??

[bing]

This thread has been around for a while. Again, I miss Ms. Pearl because he or she would have a nice comment about the the Dollar. I wish it was better in conversion, but I do go back to the days of yore when it was 25 baht to the dollar in the early 90's. So I guess it just a matter of bringing more dollars with you when going on vacation. Guys just bring a fist full of money and spend it all and go home and make some more. Where else can you have such a good time spending it. Well Pearl, where ever you are, I hope you are enjoying your G&T as much as I am the one I'm sipping on at the moment. By the way, does anyone have an update on Pearl. I do miss him/her.
.

You will not be able to take it with you. Heaven or hell, no cash allowed.
Spend and enjoy now.

[Doug]

Ikarus wrote:
"It is interesting that in the thread about the "crash" of US dollar attracted almost no Americans but we see a lot of currency "experts" like White Desire, Cottman, Smiles, Wowpow who (as usual) have no idea what they are talking about.
What you guys need to know is that UK pound, Canadian dollar and other crap are going down. "

Last year at this time I was paying CDN$350 for 10000 bhat. Now I am only paying $277. But of course I have no idea what I'm talking about.

[Sen Yai]

.... Again, I miss Ms. Pearl because ....... Well Pearl, where ever you are, I hope you are enjoying your G&T as much as I am the one I'm sipping on at the moment. By the way, does anyone have an update on Pearl. I do miss him/her.
.

I miss her too, but I have a feeling that Pearl is still here at times. Perhaps around lunchtime....

[Smiles]

" ... but I have a feeling that Pearl is still here at times. Perhaps around lunchtime ... "
At certain times I have thought the same. Then I change my mind. Then ...
But it's as good as any guess. I just wish he'd come back as Pearl.

Cheers ...

[Brad the Impala]

" ... but I have a feeling that Pearl is still here at times. Perhaps around lunchtime ... "
At certain times I have thought the same. Then I change my mind. Then ...
But it's as good as any guess. I just wish he'd come back as Pearl.

Cheers ...

Agreed, we miss you Pearl!

[ikarus]

Doug,
Canadian dollar is going down from current level not from what it has been 20 years ago. Currently it is overpriced around 10 percent if you trust analysts. While Canadian fundamentals are still good (though there was a significant reduction in current account surplus), 80 percent of Canadian trade is with US. Slowdown (or more probably recession) in US will drag Canada down. Which will lead to interest rate reductions in Canada and, consequently Canadian dollar is going down.
Besides, our Buffalo can accomodate half of the Canada but not the whole one (minus Smiles who will be in Thailand) who go there for shopping. Seriously, price difference in US and Canada (goods in Us are much cheaper than in Canada) will hurt Canadian economy too.
UK pound is going down. UK fundamentals are as bad as US ones (twin deficit). May be not on the same scale. UK economy is slowing down (if you believe your own BOE) and rates reductions are expected next year. The only thing which supports currently UK pound is high interest rate (currently 5.75). Watch UK pound sinking when rates go down. It is by the way already 2.05 versus 2.10 just several days ago. Watch UK stock market going down. It is time for you, guys, to buy gilts.
Wowpow article confirms my point. BOT needs to intervene to keep baht down (despite currency control and several interest rate reductions!). Thus, watch baht going up.
Some analysts recommend to buy Swiss franc. Euro should be O'K in near future. According to Bank Paribas will be 1.48
US per US dollar by the end of the year. If China continue to grow in 2008 (which most analysts predict) Aussi dollar should do much better than Canadian Loonie , since Australia much less coupled with US economy.
The currencies I currently hold: AU,NZ,CH,EU and Singapore dollar, Japanese Yen,Thai baht, Turkish Lira, Iceland Krona,
South African Rand.
To get Yuan account in HK one should have HK id. Foreigners can now open Yuan accounts in China but I personally would prefer
to have an account in HK. For those who are interested in Brasilian real: need to buy bonds.
Happy shopping on currency markets.

I see that some are commenting that few Americas are responding to this thread...so here goes....from an American.

Last night after the presidential debate, it was said by one of the talking heads that the question is not who will win the election, but rather if this country is still governable by anyone. I agree, the 20th Century was the American Century. Rome took about a 1,000 years to rise and fall. W most likely has reduced the American Empire to a 200 year blip in history. Greed and stupidity have succeeded where Osama couldn't. Sick, sick, sick........... I think that every America who voted for Bush should turn all of their worldly possessions over to the IRS to pay for Bush's blunders and the PR campaign that will be required to restore America's place in the world: and then spend the rest of their lives on the street with an alms bowl, like a Buddhist monk, begging for their food. In other words...put their money where their mouths and votes are. What a sweet dream! !!!!!!!

My Dad used to say that Republicans could be easily defined....I got mine; F@*& YOU!!!!! Well, Republicans got so busy with the greed of getting their's and not paying their fair share of taxes that shortly all their greed obtained wealth will be worth little and they will have succeeded in F@*&ing themselves. The dollar is dropping in value like a rock, realestate values are crashing, banks are taking huge write offs, the stock market is staggering...and the party is just beginning.

And what is even more disgusting and disheartening is that the truly smart Republicans have already moved their assets out of US dollars and markets. In other words....they have moved on!!!!!!, leaving the train wreck America behind for others to stare at like kids stare at road kill on their way to school. If you listened carefully to Allen Greenspan's recent interviews while he was on his book selling tour he admitted to "holding foreign currencies", but refused to say what currencies and what % of his assets were held offshore.

It really doesn't make any difference what country you visit the feeling towards America is visceral... disgust, mistrust, contempt. This is even true in countries that the village idiot Bush continues to refers to as "our coalition partners." With "our coalition partners' " people having turned against America, even if its governments have not, how long can America stand? America still has enough military power to bully the world, but what happens when we are financially bankrupt with a broken military, and China says "NO" when we try to barrow the money to fix our military ????? You do know the Chinese have already figured this out and are planning their strategy to sink America without firing a shot???? They are diversifying, i.e. bailing out, their cash out of US dollars as we speak.

It's starting to sound like it is nearing 1994 and the collapse of the Soviet Empire: ........bankruptcy....both morally and financially.....is a brutal thing.

till Hilary Clinton gets in!!

Soi 10 Tom,

There seems to be much bitterness in you with what is going on in America. I would just like to make a few points being a fellow American. First, I have no love for George W. I think he is the worst president in my memory. Next, the current state of affairs is not all the doing of Republicans. Many of those Republicans have build the industry and businesses that have fueled the good times. During the Clinton administration the very thing that allowed for the reduction in deficit spending was the taxes being generated by business and the general public. Was it the Clinton adminstrations tax policies, economic policies? I think not, it was timing. Economies of all countries run in cycles. They move forward at times and then there is recession. That happens no matter which party is in power. The key is to mitigate the ups and downs so they are not so drastic. Right now the American economy is not that bad. Unemployment is low, inflation has not taken off, and the biggest problem facing the economy is the home loan problem. Is it going to get worse? Probably, but much of what happens is a result of the state of mind of the American public. If panic sets in people change their habits and further enhances the chance the economy goes into recession. I do not see the vast majority of people that sit on the Republican side of the fence as raping America and moving on. Most of that wealth they generate is reinvested in the American economy NOT overseas. Wealthy Americans do indeed pay their taxes in spite of what people like you falsely state. Look up the statistics: Look at 2002 and see how the following taxpayer groups paid taxes:
Income Group ---- Tax Share
Top 1%----33.7 %
Top 5%----53.8 %
Top 10%--65.7 %
Top 25%-- 83.9 %
Top 50% --96.5 %

So the top 5 percent of the population paid almost 54% of all taxes paid on adjusted gross income. The bottom 50% of the population paid only 3.5% of all taxes. So who is not paying their fair share? The truth be told the taxes paid by the wealthy and the corporations are supporting this nation. If they were not generating that income there would be real problems with every social program in existence.

So while I can agree that I don't like the direction America takes much of the time, it is still the single largest supporter of foreign aid (good or bad) in the world and the standard of living that most Americans have is second to none. So while you are ripping American apart there is still a lot of good going on for the majority of the people living here. As bad as our health care system might be it is still head and shoulders above that in Thailand. The poor do get into the emergency rooms.

It is not all bad. All that being said I do believe there is room for a lot of improvement.

[blazer]

The baht was 25 to the dollar for many years, through the 80's and 90's until the late 90's when the baht devalued. It was inexpensive in Thailand then and is now at 34 baht to the dollar.

I do not get too concerned about short term political changes. There will be elections next year and a new government. Currency will fluctuate. There will always be those that take potshots.

Having just spent 2 weeks in Thailand, it is as inexpensive as ever, dollar goes a long way, and had a great time as well.

[cottmann]

.... So while I can agree that I don't like the direction America takes much of the time, it is still the single largest supporter of foreign aid (good or bad) in the world and the standard of living that most Americans have is second to none. .... All that being said I do believe there is room for a lot of improvement.

I guess it all comes down to what statistics you use on foreign aid and whether you favor absolute amounts over percentages of wealth/income. The "Index of Global Philanthropy 2007" publlished by the Hudson Institute in the US acknowledges that in absolute terms the USA is the world's largest foreign aid donor but in terms of net ODA as a percentage of GNI (gross national income), it ranks only above Portugal and Greece among OECD countries. See http://gpr.hudson.org/files/publication ... py2007.pdf (http://gpr.hudson.org/files/publications/IndexGlobalPhilanthropy2007.pdf). In terms of net ODA, private giving and remittances as percentages of GNI, it ranks only 7th.

Nationmaster, citing the CIA Factbook for 2007, actually puts the US at 4th, behind the UK, France and Japan. See http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_e ... -aid-donor (http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_eco_aid_don-economy-economic-aid-donor)

On standard of living, I guess it all depends too on what statistics you use. The"Christian Science Monitor" reported on November 5th 2007 that "U.S. falls to No. 15 on income scale: An OECD study downgrades per-capita American income. But there are other factors to consider." See http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1105/p16s01-wmgn.html.

Bob T

I think that we view the same situation from different plateaus. I taught in intercity Los Angeles for thirty five years, and from your identified location I can only assume that you are looking down on the situation in America, and Los Angeles, from Beverly Hills while I look up at it from the streets of Los Angeles. You are very correct in that it is not all bad, but given more time and Bush/Republican thinking there is nowhere to go but down for most of America even if all the restaurants in Beverly Hills stay open with valet parking for all the Porches and Mercedes. And, I must sheepishly admit to have frequented a Beverly Hills restaurant just last week while driving my S600. (Honest) California real estate has been very good to me, so any bitterness you may sense is not because I am feeling downtrodden and broke. I am simple angry about the rape of America by the Bush/Republicans.

As we all know, statistics will sing any song that the conductor chooses. With the largest redistribution of wealth in the history of the world taking place in America before our very eyes I would argue that the tax code doesn't take a nearly large enough bite from the top, including myself. Even Bill Gates opposes the ending of the inheritance tax..which Republicans insists on calling the death tax.

Part of any modern governments tax policy should be to block the rich from acquiring all of the wealth of the country, and that is the way America's tax code was structured for most of the 20th century. Coincidentally the 20th century saw the rise of America as the commanding power in the world while developing and educating a middle class with tax money generated from taxing the rich appropriately. America was built with the labor of an educated middle class citizenry that had a sense of pride and a real buy in to the American dream. The rich, while continued to bitch and whine, also prospered tremendously but fairly. Howard Hughes did OK and provide much employment while paying a fair tax rate. I seem to remember seeing a copy of the cashiers check he received when he sold TWA for $547,000,000 in the 1960's.

Perhaps you can not see it from Beverly Hill but in the streets of America the American dream is dying rapidly and the middle class is disappearing as the rich become outrageously wealthy at everyone expense..except, of course their own.

To see the long term results of the Bush/Republican tax code just take a close look at Thailand, a land made up of the outrageously wealth and the abject poor.

But it is so much more than the tax code and economy that is suffering in America without a renewal of a faith and the abiding belief that America is the shining light on the hill, the decline will be almost unstoppable. Just as one simple example: who will volunteer for the military and I'm not necessarily referring to just the enlisted men. Where is the officer corp going to come from....the men and women who will be the leaders of what is today the most powerful military in the world...the future four star generals???? Without a belief that America is both good and great the quality of people who volunteer for service will not be the people that are needed to maintain America's current place in the world....and this is but one simple example. I could go on and on, but you get the idea.

Will Rogers the American humorist in the 1030's during the Great Depression said: The Democrats have a plan for everything but the Republicans only have one plan. Their plan is "My back is turned boys get it while you can." Funny how nothing has changed in 70 years.

[Smiles]

" ...The dollar is dropping in value like a rock, realestate values are crashing, banks are taking huge write offs, the stock market is staggering...and the party is just beginning.
. . . It's starting to sound like it is nearing 1994 and the collapse of the Soviet Empire: ........bankruptcy....both morally and financially.....is a brutal thing ... "
As a good contrarian would say ... when all around you are, etc etc etc ... sounds like a buying opportunity.

Cheers ...

[ikarus]

I agree with most of what soi 10 Tom said. There is, however, the other side of the coin: the level of workers compensation in China is such that eventually they will bancrupt all industrial world not just America. The issue is too complex, however, to discuss it here. Let me mention just only one aspect which may affect many American expats not just Greenspans with their offshore accounts. Hillary and Obama(democrats that is) are, in principle, capable of introducing capital control to protect US dollar. Republicans will never do that. What does it mean in practical terms? Well, it may mean a lot of things. Among them: dollar cannot be taken overseas (forget about travel or transfering your dollar denominated pension overseas), banning offshore accounts for US citizens, expropriation of gold etc. All these measures sound like very extreme
but some of them are definitely possible under democratic administration. Republicans will never do it: As soi 10 Tom said
they are not going to damage their own fat offshore accounts.

[TrongpaiExpat]

The baht was 25 to the dollar for many years, through the 80's and 90's until the late 90's when the baht devalued. It was inexpensive in Thailand then and is now at 34 baht to the dollar.


Yes, but when the Baht was 25 to the US dollar, prices overall were a lot lower. 500B short-time was considered a good tip.

The exception is public transportation. Back in the 80 and early 90's before meter taxis, MRT and BTS you actually most times paid more than now unless you used the public buses and few managed that skill.

What were off fees and drink prices before the 97 crash? I think off's were 200B, 100 or more for drinks. Bangkok prices have gone up but not Pattaya.

....they are not going to damage their own fat offshore accounts.

hmmm....so many people are talking about offshore accounts nowadays. what is it? don't you still owe U.S. taxes even if your money is overseas?...

hmmm...

I know nothing of US law. Some countries have arrangements with the US so that if you pay any taxes due there you are not also taxed in your home country.

As a UK citizen, I understand that I am liable to pay taxes on all my UK income. I have registered as being non-resident for tax purposes and my main residence is Thailand. I am now not liable to pay tax on my income outside the UK. It sort of forces you to move your money out of the UK. I am only allowed to visit the UK for 3 months a year to maintain my status.

The attractive thing for many about having assets offshore is that the tax authorities don't know about it unless you tell them.

All countries in the European Union have to report income to one's home country. Even banks in the Isle of Man and Jersey have to.

[ikarus]

Sure, every US citizen should pay taxes on interest earned in offshore accounts. I do. In many cases one should pay taxes in the country where the account is set. However, foreign taxes can be deducted while US taxes paid. Offshore accounts allow one to maintain foreign currency accounts which frequently pay much higher interest rates plus currency appreciation.
E.g. my unrestricted savings account in NZ currently pays 7.7 interest taxable in US. NZ residents can get better deal.
One should be careful though. The higher interests come with double risk. Say, in case of NZ dollar, there is high risk of fast depreciation of NZ currency (fundamentals over there are terrible. In fact, much worse than in US). Any time one gets interest higher than current interest rate in the country, there is a risk that this returns are backed up by risky commercial paper (like subprime mortgage backed bonds). In case of NZ the country interest is 8.25. Thus, 7.7 interest with reputable bank is quite legitimate.

[jinks]

I wish I had sufficent to go off-shore.

I only say this to join wowpow with the avatar appeal :clown:

[Aunty]

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is required, by law, to keep inflation under 3% pa, and the only tool available for that is monetary policy i.e., interest rates. When calculating the rate of inflation in NZ, in contrast to the United States, house price inflation is included in the official CPI figure. Like much of the Western world we have had a booming (overheated most experts have argued) real estate market that has caused median house prices to increase by almost 100% over the last five years. This massive year on year increase flows into the CPI and puts pressure on the Reserve Bank to act to contain inflation.

Our current high interest rates are a consequence of one thing and one thing only. The over heated real estate market. The Governor of the Reserve Bank has said on numerous occasions that he is deeply concerned by the excessive growth in house prices and the effect this is having on other sectors of the economy such as productive investment and savings, as so-called investors soak up available capital by buying over priced real estate with mortgages that they can only afford if the property is turned into a rental property. The Bank has acted over the last two years to stop this by increasing interest rates with the sole aim of killing the bull-run in the housing market. And itтАЩs a good thing too. Housing affordability is at an all time low in New Zealand. Young people/couples/families can no longer afford to buy a house and record numbers of New Zealanders are renting as a result, which is simply not good enough.

The Bank appears to have won the battle. The housing market has stalled. Properties are taking longer to sell (not just 2-3 weeks as it was at the marketтАЩs height), price inflation has eased (there has been a slight reduction in median house price actually), there is a greater sense of pessimism among real estate agents looking forward. Without the almost ridiculous capital gains that have been guaranteed over the last few years coupled (in fact the risk is of price decline) with the current high interest rates on mortgages (~10% floating rate) the numbers no longer stack up. The boom is over, and the Governor is in no hurry to start to cut interest rates either. But heтАЩs no longer under any pressure to put them up and he hasnтАЩt. Furthermore heтАЩs in a good position that if the economy turns sour heтАЩs got plenty of room to cut.

The expectation is that interest rates will begin to be cut towards the middle of next year. But who knows maybe it might come sooner if the economy looks under pressure from high oil prices and/or a decline in our export commodity prices. Look to see the exchange rate drop when he does.

The Reserve Bank intervened in the foreign exchange market some months ago to stop a surging Kiwi being driven up by currency traders on expectations of further interest rate hikes. Seems to have been largely successful as well, as except against the $US, our dollar is very similar in value against other currencies as it has been for some time. The Kiwi currently buys 24 Baht. Two years ago it brought 27.

If you have money in NZ, my advice is youтАЩd better have a plan to get it out quick when interest rates start to fall.

[ikarus]

I mostly agree with your analysis, except for the fact that the Governor of RBNZ has no control over the processess like carry trade. His attempts to intervene in currency markets were , in fact, a total failure. I also agree that KIWI is going to sink quickly when the rates go down . This is due to horrible fundamentals of NZ economy (e.g. huge current account deficit). However, there is no need for international investor to move quickly out of NZ financial system when and if KIWI start to go down. I have an ability to move my NZ assets within seconds to a number of other currencies in the same NZ bank.

[Aunty]

I mostly agree with your analysis, except for the fact that the Governor of RBNZ has no control over the processess like carry trade. His attempts to intervene in currency markets were , in fact, a total failure. I also agree that KIWI is going to sink quickly when the rates go down . This is due to horrible fundamentals of NZ economy (e.g. huge current account deficit). However, there is no need for international investor to move quickly out of NZ financial system when and if KIWI start to go down. I have an ability to move my NZ assets within seconds to a number of other currencies in the same NZ bank.

We have had 'huge' current account deficits for decades (much like the US). Apart from that I think our fundamentals are actually quite good. But you are wise to have the means to move out of the Kiwi quickly, whether it's within NZ or offshore. In 2000 as a point of interest 40US cents brought NZ$1. Now 75US cents buys $1 NZ dollar. I hope you've held NZ dollars for a long time! If you have, you would have made a lot of money. As to the 'failure' of the reserve bank intervention, I'm not sure the exchange rates support your view on that.

These two comments are being submitted by friends that are living in Thailand but not registered on this board. They have ask me to post these as responses to Bob T's comments. They were not solicited by me, but they do generally reflect my thinking...just from a different angle. Thanks. Tom

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You both make very good points!

I have benefited from investments in the US and am
happy that I can live a prosperous life now. I am
happy for the opportunities that have been available
to me.

I see many people in Thailand that do not have these
opportunities because they were born into a lower
class and have low expectations for themselves and
they do not know about saving and investing. Most of
them only know about working and spending.

I do see vast disparities of wealth as a serious
problem and that a big inheritance tax for the top 1%
of the society as a possible solution. Let the wealth
acquirers engage in an orgy of wealth creation. That
stimulates the economy. Then, when they die, tax it
at a total rate of 50%. That would insure that
society does not have these unending dynasties that
the rest of society is indebted to. It would also
help the of spring of these very wealthy people to get
out and create there own life. Too much financial
help for the children of the super rich makes them
weak. Taxing people after they are dead is the most
painless way to tax them. It also doesn't negatively
affect economic growth, as big income taxes do. That
money should be spent on national infrastructure and
environmental projects.

Some would say that it is not fair to tax inheritance.
Of course it is not fair. Fairness is not the goal.
A healthy society is the goal. Is it fair that one
person inherits extreme wealth and another extreme
poverty?

please post this on that web site.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I hear this argument a lot from rich people. They seem to think that it is enough to throw the less fortunate a bone (aka supplying them with jobs in their outrageously wealthy companies, paying slaves wages). Of course the people with 50% of the wealth pay 96.5% of the taxes, the rest of America is too busy trying to eat, pay rent, support their families and hold the wealthy on their shoulders to really make much more of a contribution. When the wealthy "do without," they give up a Bentleys for a Mercedes. When the poor do without, they give up their small apartments for card board boxes. Talk about a distorted view of what is 'fair." It is becoming harder and harder to get a decent education in this country. If wealthy people were really concerned about who is doing what for America, they would find a way to make higher education accessible to everyone. It is hard to stand up on your own when you have someones patent leather shoe stomping down on your back.

[kittyboy]

Soi 10 Tom,

There seems to be much bitterness in you with what is going on in America. I would just like to make a few points being a fellow American. First, I have no love for George W. I think he is the worst president in my memory. Next, the current state of affairs is not all the doing of Republicans. Many of those Republicans have build the industry and businesses that have fueled the good times. During the Clinton administration the very thing that allowed for the reduction in deficit spending was the taxes being generated by business and the general public. Was it the Clinton adminstrations tax policies, economic policies? I think not, it was timing. Economies of all countries run in cycles. They move forward at times and then there is recession. That happens no matter which party is in power. The key is to mitigate the ups and downs so they are not so drastic. Right now the American economy is not that bad. Unemployment is low, inflation has not taken off, and the biggest problem facing the economy is the home loan problem. Is it going to get worse? Probably, but much of what happens is a result of the state of mind of the American public. If panic sets in people change their habits and further enhances the chance the economy goes into recession. I do not see the vast majority of people that sit on the Republican side of the fence as raping America and moving on. Most of that wealth they generate is reinvested in the American economy NOT overseas. Wealthy Americans do indeed pay their taxes in spite of what people like you falsely state. Look up the statistics: Look at 2002 and see how the following taxpayer groups paid taxes:
Income Group ---- Tax Share
Top 1%----33.7 %
Top 5%----53.8 %
Top 10%--65.7 %
Top 25%-- 83.9 %
Top 50% --96.5 %

So the top 5 percent of the population paid almost 54% of all taxes paid on adjusted gross income. The bottom 50% of the population paid only 3.5% of all taxes. So who is not paying their fair share? The truth be told the taxes paid by the wealthy and the corporations are supporting this nation. If they were not generating that income there would be real problems with every social program in existence.

So while I can agree that I don't like the direction America takes much of the time, it is still the single largest supporter of foreign aid (good or bad) in the world and the standard of living that most Americans have is second to none. So while you are ripping American apart there is still a lot of good going on for the majority of the people living here. As bad as our health care system might be it is still head and shoulders above that in Thailand. The poor do get into the emergency rooms.

It is not all bad. All that being said I do believe there is room for a lot of improvement.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I agree that the weathies American need to pay their share of taxes. I read your number and yes the weathies 1% and 5% pay a higher protion of the overall taxes. However, let's put that in to perspective. The top 1% of weathly American paid 33.7% of the total taxes in the US. They also receive between 19-21.5 percent of annual GDP and control 35% of all assets and wealth in the country. Maybe the weathly are not paying their fair share.

Additionally, maybe the wealthies should pay more to society because the are more able to pay, they have benefitted the most from a civil society and owe more, and because they have the most to lose.

Below is an article I found on the subject. I have given the link to the article. I also quoted very briefly from it.




http://zmagsite.zmag.org/Feb2007/rasmus0207.html

[ikarus]

I mostly agree with your analysis, except for the fact that the Governor of RBNZ has no control over the processess like carry trade. His attempts to intervene in currency markets were , in fact, a total failure. I also agree that KIWI is going to sink quickly when the rates go down . This is due to horrible fundamentals of NZ economy (e.g. huge current account deficit). However, there is no need for international investor to move quickly out of NZ financial system when and if KIWI start to go down. I have an ability to move my NZ assets within seconds to a number of other currencies in the same NZ bank.

We have had 'huge' current account deficits for decades (much like the US). Apart from that I think our fundamentals are actually quite good. But you are wise to have the means to move out of the Kiwi quickly, whether it's within NZ or offshore. In 2000 as a point of interest 40US cents brought NZ$1. Now 75US cents buys $1 NZ dollar. I hope you've held NZ dollars for a long time! If you have, you would have made a lot of money. As to the 'failure' of the reserve bank intervention, I'm not sure the exchange rates support your view on that.
I did not have any offshore accounts in 2000. It was a time of balanced budgets in US and I could not imagine that things could deteriorate so quickly. We are living in turbulent times when US dollar loosing the status of world reserve currency
and while Europeans would probably want to believe that Euro will take dollars place, I am sure Chinese rulers have their own opinion on this subject. The whole point of my posts was to show that despite all current turbulence it is possible to build a currency portfolio which would provide a relative stability in retirement. I want to emphasize that my current portfolio is more or else stable (in other words, preserve principle in the base currency of my choice, Euro at the moment) and provide a stable interest in the base currency. I can adjust and tune it, if necessary,
increase interest payments (which, of course, come with increased volatility in principle investment) and more or less independent of what may happen with any particular currency. E.g. if KIWI goes down, it would mean that Japanese Yen will go up
(as currencies on opposite ends of carry trades) etc.
I am sure it is possible to build similar portfolios based on other asset classes.
Now, there come certain "bifurcation points" where investment paradigms change quickly and I am afraid that no investment scheme will work. That is where you need to use your stack of Yuans kept under your matress.

[Bob]

Maybe the weathly are not paying their fair share.


Fair statement in my view as the rich are getting richer, the poor poorer, and the middle class is beginning to vanish.

Warren Buffett (who makes a billion or two, probably much in capital gains) was on the news a week or so ago suggesting that he believed the rich were not being taxed enough. He said he compared his tax percentage (percentage of gross income) with 30+ other employees of Berkshire Hathaway (including secretarial staff, etc.). He said that his tax percentage was in fact lower than every one of the 30+ people he talked to and he indicated that he was rather appalled that such was the case. He said his effective federal tax rate was 17% whereas all of the others ranged between 19% and 32%.

[bing]

Guys you are getting way too cerebral. What do you see in clouds. I tend to see doggies and kitties. If the dollar is bad just bring some extra with you when you go on vacation. I wish I had buckets of dollars, but since I don't I'll just spend the ones I have.

....
The attractive thing for many about having assets offshore is that the tax authorities don't know about it unless you tell them.
....


When you wire money out of Farangland , your Farang authority certainly knows you got the money out, and probably knows where your money is if they want to trace it.

[Aunty]

OPEC members considering non-dollar reserves

CNN International (18.11.07)

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Sunday that OPEC's members have expressed interest in converting their cash reserves into a currency other than the depreciating U.S. dollar, which he called a "worthless piece of paper.".......................

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/11 ... pstoryview (http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/11/18/opec.dollar.ap/index.html?iref=mpstoryview)

[Aunty]

Rappers join the models and dump the free falling $US.

...............The downward spiral of the dollar is hardly new, even if its plight was accelerated by the start of the housing credit crunch over the summer.

It has lost 44 per cent of its value against the euro since 2002.


The Canadian dollar reached parity with its American cousin in September and has since shot above it.


But awareness on Main Street America may be lagging behind.


Listen to presidential candidates take questions on the stump in Iowa and New Hampshire and still you will hear nary a question about it.

Americans have been accustomed for so long to thinking of the dollar as reigning supreme and unassailable, that the reality will take time to sink in.




http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/15011 ... d=10476931 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1501119/story.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=10476931)

It's not looking too good for the US I'm afraid. Is that Cedric popping open the Champagne that I can here?

[ikarus]

....
The attractive thing for many about having assets offshore is that the tax authorities don't know about it unless you tell them.
....


When you wire money out of Farangland , your Farang authority certainly knows you got the money out, and probably knows where your money is if they want to trace it.
In case of US citizens rules are, in fact, more specific. One needs to report annualy the detailed information ( including account number)about all offshore banking and brokerage accounts to the Treasure Department on special form provided by IRS . I talked to people over there and I know that they maintain an electronic database with this information. Penalties for violation are pretty stiff: up to 10 years in prison (believe it or not). Thus, they can easily track all tax violators or can use this information if they decide to ban offshore accounts (which is a possibility and not so distant as some may think).

[ikarus]

Rappers join the models and dump the free falling $US.

...............The downward spiral of the dollar is hardly new, even if its plight was accelerated by the start of the housing credit crunch over the summer.

It has lost 44 per cent of its value against the euro since 2002.


The Canadian dollar reached parity with its American cousin in September and has since shot above it.


But awareness on Main Street America may be lagging behind.


Listen to presidential candidates take questions on the stump in Iowa and New Hampshire and still you will hear nary a question about it.

Americans have been accustomed for so long to thinking of the dollar as reigning supreme and unassailable, that the reality will take time to sink in.




http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/15011 ... d=10476931 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1501119/story.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=10476931)

It's not looking too good for the US I'm afraid. Is that Cedric popping open the Champagne that I can here?
Rather than popping open the Champagne, Cedric should be busy exchanging HK dollar which is linked to US one to Chinese Yuan.
I guess, I need to explain something here, especially for people who do not quite understand how bonds work.
It may sound quite paradoxical but US dollar may rebound in short to medium term especially if US fall into recession and Fed continue to cut interest rates. If it happens, it is quite natural that many US investor may start switching from stocks to bonds. I want to emphasize here that many investments in US (e.g. retirement accounts ) are locked to US dollar and the choice really is between US stocks or bonds. This naturally leads to the increase of the cost of bonds. But what bonds?
Not commercial paper this time. People really scared by subprime crisis and look for really safe assets, i.e. US treasury bonds. It is a huge and liquid market. The price of treasury bonds go up and it eventually start attracting not only American but also foreign investors (despite sinking dollar). Now, it is not a theory and, in fact, the price of some types of US treasury bonds , in fact, went up 4-5 percent within couple of last monthes. On top of that US recession would reduce consumer spending in US which would lead to the reduction of US imports and cheap dollar would increase US export (already happening) just reducing US current account deficit which the major reason for dollar trouble in the first place.
US dollar starts going up which increase the attractivenesss of US government bonds... You get the picture.
US recession leads to UK recession and slowdown in Europe. European stocks go down. US investors pull their money from European stock markets and repatriate them back home exchanging euro back to dollar which further props up the dollar..
The price of oil and other commodities go down (due to the slaggish demand from US). The Europe on the brink of recession. Trichet reduces interest rate in Eurozone whic props up US dollar again...Inflation in Europe goes down. hig h priced Euro makes no longer sense. Japanese are in panic. Nobody buys their cars and electronics. Now , all pieces are in place for the triple intervention (US, Eurpean Union and Japan) in currency markets to prop up US dollar. That is it. Markets capitulate. Dollar is on the rise.
My dreams? May be. May be not.