Thai baht forecast at 25 to US $ ???

[travelerjim]

Bangkok Post breaking news has an article forecasting
US Dollar falling to 25 baht to US $...

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_new ... ?id=123223 (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=123223)

"Asian currencies are likely to strengthen to the same levels they occupied before the economic crisis of a decade ago,
according to a top securities executive.

Named after Thailand's shrimp soup,the so-called "tom yam kung disease" of 1997
sent the value of currencies plummeting, starting with the baht, which halved in value almost overnight.

Asia Plus Securities president Kongkiate Opaswongkarn said the US dollar is expected
to continue weakening as the result of the ongoing economic slowdown in the United States....

... it is projected Asian currencies will strengthen to the same level as they were before the economic crisis
took place in Thailand in 1997. Before then, the Thai baht has consistently remained at around 25 to the US dollar.

Under the circumstances, Mr Kongkiate said, all parties, particularly exporters, must adjust to the situation. "

more...read story.

Indeed...this is a disturbing forecast for Americans retired in Thailand!

TravelerJim

but European currencies, no, the UK┬г today was 70 odd, it is really going to be heartbreaking for the US if it goes to 25 to the dollar and UK goes to around 75. At the moment there is 2.08 US to the UK ┬г. It hasnt been like that for many years, they are even talking now of 2.44 to the ┬г, wow.

However, if the dollar weakens further, then there will be plus and minus factors for Asia, for certain dollar rich people will not be visiting Asia as often, but there will be an influx of Europeans.

If you haven't already divested of US currency by now, you're nuts.

Well, the only good news I can think of for Americans is for people like me who bought condos. If it gets too harsh, I can sell the condo to a Brit and make a killing on the currency movement alone. And then move someplace where the dollar still has an erection, but I can't think of that place yet.

Well, the only good news I can think of for Americans is for people like me who bought condos. If it gets too harsh, I can sell the condo to a Brit and make a killing on the currency movement alone. And then move someplace where the dollar still has an erection, but I can't think of that place yet.

Japan.

I would never move to Japan.
It might be a good idea for Americans who need to show money to immigration to bring in the dollars sooner than later.

Notice the analyst didn't say when this decline would happen. Next week? Next month? Next year? Anyway, if this does happen I personally might stay for a few more years and spend the strong baht I already have here, and then sell up and move out, yet again. Or I might find its still OK to live here like that. Street food and Thai whisky isn't all bad.

whilst the US is having problems, there could be fallout which will affect Europe also, including the UK, this sub-prime business, whilst predominantly US linked, has also affected the UK and Europe, albeit not to the degree it has in the US.

If it does affect the UK and Europe in the next few years, the Asia will "have it all ways".

Japan.
I realise that it would have an attraction for the pedos given their 'age of consent' but Japan is one of the most expensive countries in the world to visit or live. Whatever you save if you give up Thailand because of the strong Baht you will never make up by moving there.

Cambodia or Laos or just staying put and cutting your cloth accordingly seem to be the best options.

I don't think you'll find Cambodia or Laos to be any cheaper than Thailand, unfortunately.

Traveler Jim:

Disturbing, but acurately predicted by almost everyone that knows anything about monitary policy....this is no surprise. This is not a rise in the value of the
Baht, but rather a colapse of the US Dollar.

This collapse of the US Dollar is just one more of the unintended, but totally predicted, consequences of the village idiot Bush's policies. Spending money like a drunken sailor on unneeded wars and pork while borrowing from China does have real consequences. I'm no genius but I saw this coming several years ago and moved out of dollars, while, also, moving to inflation proof investments. There is only one way for America to pay back its debt...INFLATION. You barrow expensive money...let inflation cheapen it and then pay the debt with inflated/cheap money. It's an old tried and true trick; how do you think America paid for the Vietnam War?????

I will not be surprised if the Baht does not stop at 25. The US Congress shows no signs of bringing Bush's craziness under control, and combining that with a Thailand that has a newly elected government with a good economic plan could be a perfect storm for American expats, and the Thai economy could take off like a rocket and shoot right past the 25 mark.

[jinks]

At the moment there is 2.08 US to the UK ┬г. It hasnt been like that for many years, they are even talking now of 2.44 to the ┬г, wow.

Anyone old enough to remember the slang term for 5 shillings ?

It was "a dollar" because there were 4 to the pound. (20 shillings in a pound)

My earliest travelling was when it was $ 2.80 to the GBP.

Notice the analyst didn't say when this decline would happen. Next week? Next month? Next year?

It won't happen quickly. To get to 25baht to a US dollar would mean a 20 percent devaluation of the dollar. While many analysts see this as a possibility in the medium to long term, it would be extremely destabilising to the world's economy for it to happen in the short term.

The chief stabiliser is the Chinese yuan. This currency is still on a managed float, and Beijing is not going to allow a rapid appreciation of the yuan against the dollar. A rise in the yuan would put severe strains on the massive export industry of China, leading to production cut-backs and lay-offs with frightful social consequences. Beijing may allow a 3 - 5 percent appreciation annually, to give its exporters time to adjust, but more than that and the effects on the Chinese economy would be hard to control.

So long as the Chinese yuan does not rise quickly vis-a-vis the USdollar, other Asian economies that compete with China for similar exports to the US, e.g. Thailand, Vietnam, Phillippines, cannot afford to see their currencies rise too much either. If they did, their own exports will become uncompetitive compared to Chinese exports.

On the other hand, if oil prices continue to rise, Asian countries including China will certainly want to let their currencies appreciate against the dollar to soften the inflationary impact of USdollar-denominated oil prices. There is no merit in letting exchange rates stay as they are and letting their economies get walloped by high oil prices (in USdollar terms)

Taken together, these trends does strongly suggest that the USdollar will fall, but gradually.

The way this is headed most Americans will be stuck in the fascist "homeland" just like most Thais are. Oh well.
Just to be safe, I think I'm gonna move some more dollars here soon.

the dollar has fallen nearly some 5% in value, I don't think it will take too long for it fall more, there is still a lot of negativity in the pipeline in the US which will affect the dollar.

However, one thing to remember is that if the US does have problems, u can guarantee the world will have the same problems shortly after. A lot of Asian countries rely on the US a lot for various economic activities.

Mind you, its clear that Bush does want a weaker dollar so that the US can compete with exports more vigorously. However, that makes imports more expensive for them, I'm sure they are bothered about imports though when the US is self sufficient in many ways, and if the US dollar keeps weakening with the exception of China who won't devalue, they, its only a guess, but if the dollar has weakened against other currencies, I wonder if the US will revalue/devalue the US$ to the Chinese yuan, after all that is the only country that is hurting the US with regard to imports.

With the price of oil at record highs that is going to cause major inflation problems in the US at some point, whereas, as oil is priced in dollars, Europe and Asia will not be half as affected.

Even as I speak the dollar is weakening, its now nearly 2.09 to the UK┬г.

Whats Europe like these days without the Americans? I haven't been in ages. I only go when the dollar is strong. Looks like that might take a really long while to happen again!

the americans are not in town!!

Let the bashing begin!

[fedssocr]

actually I just read a report the other day the the falling dollar has not resulted in Americans traveling abroad less. so any drop off in Europe now is more due to the arrival of low season than anything.

as was mentioned above it was totally predictable that this would happen eventually. and with the Fed cutting interest rates the other day it made even more people abandon the US$. couple that with Bush and Cheney's idiotic threats against Iran and we have their oil industry cronies cashing in on $100/barrel.

The sky is falling !

Yes, the sky is falling. It just hasn't hit ground yet.

Notice the analyst didn't say when this decline would happen. Next week? Next month? Next year?

It won't happen quickly. To get to 25baht to a US dollar would mean a 20 percent devaluation of the dollar. While many analysts see this as a possibility in the medium to long term, it would be extremely destabilising to the world's economy for it to happen in the short term.

The chief stabiliser is the Chinese yuan. This currency is still on a managed float, and Beijing is not going to allow a rapid appreciation of the yuan against the dollar. A rise in the yuan would put severe strains on the massive export industry of China, leading to production cut-backs and lay-offs with frightful social consequences. Beijing may allow a 3 - 5 percent appreciation annually, to give its exporters time to adjust, but more than that and the effects on the Chinese economy would be hard to control.

So long as the Chinese yuan does not rise quickly vis-a-vis the USdollar, other Asian economies that compete with China for similar exports to the US, e.g. Thailand, Vietnam, Phillippines, cannot afford to see their currencies rise too much either. If they did, their own exports will become uncompetitive compared to Chinese exports.

On the other hand, if oil prices continue to rise, Asian countries including China will certainly want to let their currencies appreciate against the dollar to soften the inflationary impact of USdollar-denominated oil prices. There is no merit in letting exchange rates stay as they are and letting their economies get walloped by high oil prices (in USdollar terms)

Taken together, these trends does strongly suggest that the USdollar will fall, but gradually.

Very, very good Macaroni.
The only fly in the ointment however is how long the Chinese are going to keep hanging on to a falling currency.
If everyone else starts dumping dollars and moving into Euros how long will the Chinese keep playing "sucker"?

Well, they sold us toxic toys and we paid for them with toxic bonds. Now the US and China are in the same boat. And if the Great American Consumer goes belly-up what will happen to the Chinese Stock Market Bubble?

Buy Gold!

Whats Europe like these days without the Americans?
Absolutely great !!!!!! :cheers:

Whats Europe like these days without the Americans?
Absolutely great !!!!!! :cheers:
Glad to do my part to help.

At the moment there is 2.08 US to the UK ┬г. It hasnt been like that for many years, they are even talking now of 2.44 to the ┬г, wow.

Anyone old enough to remember the slang term for 5 shillings ?

It was "a dollar" because there were 4 to the pound. (20 shillings in a pound)

My earliest travelling was when it was $ 2.80 to the GBP.

I remember when 5 shillings was called a 'crown' 2/6d was a half crown, and prices in "decent' mens tailors quoted prices in 'guineas' My Grandfather always gave me a half-crown pocket money when we visited on Sunday afternoons.

America and China are engaged in a dance that could lead to guaranteed mutual destruction...not unlike the good old Soviet days, just no bombs this time. If either uses it economic weapons both go straight to Hell in flames.

Let the bashing begin!

obnoxious stereotypical American ! :flower:

Let the bashing begin!

obnoxious stereotypical American ! :flower:
And I love you too.
Can I suck on your truffles?

Can I suck on your truffles?

The mystery is how you suck it ?

A shocking work with erotic tension ! :clown:

OK, I get your point.
If you insist, I will eat your dingleberries if you serve them with lots of sweet cream.

OK, I get your point.
If you insist, I will eat your dingleberries if you serve them with lots of sweet cream.

I might have just sold myself " an entertaining " . But I forgot to tell you I can't help you ! :flower:

I might have just sold myself " an entertaining " . But I forgot to tell you I can't help you !
That doesn't mean anything in English, but I think you have invented a wonderful new kind of poetry.

Whats Europe like these days without the Americans? I haven't been in ages. I only go when the dollar is strong. Looks like that might take a really long while to happen again!

There are still Americans in Europe and for us it is a chance to get more competitive and to offer them real value for money. Certain countries in Europe have become riidiculously expensive (Italy for example).

But especially Switzerland caters very well for a market of wealthy and also less wealthy Americans.

Thank you for coming!

Well there may be one good thing about the falling $$.

Maybe people will start buying our cars again!

Anybody for a Hummer?

Ok, ok.....how about a Cadillac?

I'll take one Lincoln Navigator and one Corvette, thanks.

[bucknaway]

American cars...

I would like to have a GMC Envoy or a Ford Explorer... I like the Ford Mustang and the Dodge Charger. I thought about buying a Sebring Convertible..

The only reason I didn't buy an American car was because the Ford/Mitsubishi dealer I went to seem very distant and unresponsive to me on the Ford side but when I went to the Mitsubishi side of the office... They seem to bend over backwards to do what it took to sell me a car.

I thought you were the one who liked to do the bending over.

[bucknaway]

If I were a one trick pony... I can do several tricks at once... And have...


I thought you were the one who liked to do the bending over.

Please tell everyone more about your car desires. I for one find it facinating reading. What color? Leather or cloth?