Retiring in Thailand and your Pension

If any of you guys are thinking of retiring in Thailand (or anywhere else for that matter) in the next few weeks or months, your pension could be worth a lot less.

The stock markets have crashed around the world and basically knocked as much as 10% or more of indices.

Now if your pension fund is in an Equities type fund, you will have been affected by this.

However, a good pensions adviser and/or company pension advisers should have advised a person over 50 to put their funds in a "with profits" type/safe fund. However, a lot of people just don't bother and wait and wait and wait until they retire, to find out their pension pot aint what it should be.

If you are retiring within the next few weeks/months, the stock markets (probably) wont recover to the levels and couple of months ago. What I am saying is if you are one of the unlucky ones, keep your eye on and check your funds.

If you are not retiring for a few years, you will probably be able to ride out the storms!

It could just be a correction. 10 percent decline isn't a big deal at all over the long term view. I disagree that people over 50 should be out of equities. Maybe over 70, but 50 is too early. Your theories are very old fashioned and not mainstream. OK for those with no tolerance for risk at all. But remember, no risk, no reward.

BTW, panic selling is almost always a bad idea. Market way up today. I like the market.

It could just be a correction. 10 percent decline isn't a big deal at all over the long term view. I disagree that people over 50 should be out of equities. Maybe over 70, but 50 is too early. Your theories are very old fashioned and not mainstream. OK for those with no tolerance for risk at all. But remember, no risk, no reward.

BTW, panic selling is almost always a bad idea. Market way up today. I like the market.

Well, if one had a pension fund around 2000 and were 50 years of age then, the fund still wouldn't be worth what it was originally in or around 2000 and they would be 57 now. Its a proven theory time and time again. It is also only a recommendation from a lot of advisers to ensure that one limits their risk. Yes, there are people out there who have a a tolerance to risk. But to put it in perspective, UK equities halved their value during the last spiral downwards. If you came out of "equities" at 70, the risk is extremely high indeed.

[globalwanderer]

the answer is not age related, but when you want to retire... as you approach retirement you should move out of equities to ensure a steady cash income

The stock markets have crashed around the world and basically knocked as much as 10% or more of indices.



That is a ludicrous statement.

10-15% can hardly be called a crash.

This is a much needed levelling out of the stocks thanks to the greedy American mortgage market biting off more than they could chew for a few fast dollars.

Already markets have started to recover from the low of the last 48 hours but just don't expect the Baht to weaken. By the end of this year anyone buying Baht and relying on a good rate of exchange is going to be bitterly dissapointed.

the answer is not age related, but when you want to retire... as you approach retirement you should move out of equities to ensure a steady cash income
That is one answer. Not the only answer. For those retired early that would be financial suicide. They still need a good portion in equities to assure continued growth over time. It seems many are thinking like their grandfathers. Retirement investment theory has changed.

[Bob]

WD, your advice is a bit goofy.
If anybody needs their money within the next two years or so (let alone the next few weeks/months), they would be nuts to have their money in the stock market anyway.
And suggesting that people divest themselves of stocks after a 10% downturn is exactly the wrong advice. For people who investments are to sit for a couple of years or more, it's more likely a buying opportunity.

[/quote]That is a ludicrous statement.

10-15% can hardly be called a crash.[/quote]

Naughty:

This is not my terminology, it is news reports, i.e. BBC, CNN - other words they use is "wobbly" "big falls" "bubble burst".

Whatever the future holds, pensioners cashing in on their pension today will be 10-15% worse off.

WD, your advice is a bit goofy.
If anybody needs their money within the next two years or so (let alone the next few weeks/months), they would be nuts to have their money in the stock market anyway.
And suggesting that people divest themselves of stocks after a 10% downturn is exactly the wrong advice. For people who investments are to sit for a couple of years or more, it's more likely a buying opportunity.

Bob:

It's not MY advice, generally what people do, GENERALLY I SAY, is they put money in a pension scheme based on advice from their adviser/company and just sit on it. Invariably, pensions are put into equity funds, bonds and so forth. Equity funds are classed as risky or volatile is probably the word I should use. Generally once again, when nearing retirement age (I'm not stating an age here, but as a general rule of thumb 10-15 years before you retire), an adviser/company recommends that you put your "pension pot" in a low risk fund. That is the way it should work.

NOW - in reality there are a lot of people out there, who don't know there left foot from their right foot and haven't got a clue how pension schemes work - and we are talking about a high percentage here. I think that speaks for itself.

With respect to myself, only a small part of my pension pot is in equities, and I will ride out the storm.

With respect to a buying opportunity while stock prices are low - well how long is a piece of string - unless one is clued up as when stocks are going to fall or rise, then one wouldn't have a clue. Hence, when buying stocks you in it for the long haul, so it "smooths over" over time.

The key about investing in pensions is take account of the risk factors with these funds. Whilst equity funds which are volatile to say the least, bond type funds are now a safer bet and paying pretty high dividends due to higher interest rates around the world which is where a lot of investors are sticking their money at the moment instead of equities. This is only an opinion of mine and I would never suggest anyone take MY advice. They should seek advice from an independent pensions adviser.

I think you are talking about some kind of British thing I don't understand about. (Pension funds.)

Anyway, the investment principles are the same, stocks versus bonds.
I still contend the modern thinking is that even old people should have a good portion in equities:

You guys who think you should drop all equities at the date of retirement are running on ancient false assumptions. I would fire any advisor who advised that.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/16/pf/upde ... ymag_0603/ (http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/16/pf/updegrave_moneymag_0603/)


NEW YORK (MONEY Magazine) - It's an accepted tenet of retirement planning: You need to stay invested in stocks -- keeping, say, 30 percent or more of your investments in equities -- if you want your savings to last the three decades or more you may need it for income once you stop working.

The right balance, according to Ned Notzon, chairman of T. Rowe Price's asset allocation committee, is to start off with 40 to 60 percent of your portfolio in stocks at retirement. Then, as you age, gradually ratchet down your stock holdings until they represent 20 to 30 percent of your assets by the time you're in your eighties.

This is heart-thumping volatity like I've never seen before and wonder if it is a prelude to certain economic disasters (October '07 is near) as a direct result of Bush's Iraq war and "laissez faire" economic policies particulary globalization on the basis of no improvements in human rights conditions, and Chinese food poisoning wjhich have hit Thailand's shores as well. Hillary Clinton said of Bush's legacy through '08: "you ain't seen nothing yet". I'd be selling now through Thankgiving aqnd picking up the pieces after the '08 election,

Rather than having a mico view of the worlds markets one should have a big picture view. News medias make their money with viewers/buyers so they constantly engage in the use of superlatives that have become meaningless: "crash"wobbly" "big falls" "bubble burst" in today's news environment mean nothing, but they do get dummies to watch or read their trash.

The big picture view is that the American dollar is going to decline in value against most every other currency in the world, and America's exports will continue to shrink. China and all of Asia are rising. If you are interested in investing in today's world: first move your cash and investment portfolios out of US Dollars and markets. Then move your investment portfolio into some of the better Asian ETFs...and move your cash dollars to diversified foreign Banks with decent percentage yields.

Hell my Thai bank account has gone up 20% against the US Dollar and Thai banks pay no interest.

And stop all of this "Chicken Little" stuff about the sky falling every time the US markets' fart.

[Impulse]

Soi tom,your right on about the use of wording these journalist use.It makes me sick when they say,"soar,crash",etc. Unfortunatly,I also agree that Asia is where the growth will be and is where your money should be.Timing is important and the asian stock markets are very high at these levels,they have been returning about 30% a year for the last 4 or 5 years.How long can they maintain this pace is a question.India and china are growing like mad but Im not buying funds in them at these prices. Also,I had a friend who worked in Thailand during the 98 meltdown and his bank account was cut in half overnight then. Having said that,I bought a studio in Thailand so I have a place to live when I retire there,and its gone up because of the weakening dollar.Im trying for 20% a year in equities just to keep up with the crap us dollar.Over time,everything goes up because of inflation,inflation is the enemy of us all.Just look at a chart of the dow jones average ,from 1980 on it looks parabolic,same with real estate.Thats why I dont like bonds,they arnt effective against inflation.I would and am personaly planning on staying in stocks after I retire because of the ravages of inflation. Dont listen to my advise,seek a professional.jmho Rocket(who trades stocks almost everyday and is never satisfied with his results)

[ned kelly-old]

It's amazing how the bullshit flows when it comes to investing, although I guess it shows why so many need good advice.
"Raksiam" is correct...........over time equities out perform all other investment classes, so no matter whether your about to retire, are already retired or are years away from it, if you want to maximise your investment nest egg you need a major portion in equities.
Sure there will be volatility, there always has been and it ain't likely to change! But if you don't have to sell anything you've lost nothing. Even if your paying a pension from these investments it should represent only a small portion and if your lucky may even be largely covered by dividends.
Exchange rates are a lot more problematical, and are certainly important for self funded retirees who live in a different country from their income source. By and large you have to wear these. Economic forecasters have been consistently unreliable when it comes to FX. As for its rate against sterling, the $US, Euro or $A in the future....NO ONE knows. As mentioned in a previous post the $A has lost 10% against the baht in a week!.........Mai Pen Rai.

There is NO Asian econmic miracle! Its all another bubble funded by a) cheap Yen fueling the "yen carry trade" which is starting to unwind and b) the great American "credit card" which is now maxed out. China ("Red" China not the ROC) is nothing but a house of cards, backed up by worthless American debt obligations and run by incompetent Communist Party apparachniks.
This "correction" is not going to stop at 10%

That's the Bad News. The Good News is in a year or 2 there will be buying opportunities galore.

What really pisses me off is everything is getting hammered right now - even my gold stocks :crybaby:

[Impulse]

Kenc,what gold stocks do you own? I just bought AU,the Austrailian gold stock as Ive made money on it in the past.The moment of truth is arriving for commoditie stocks,Is there a worldwide slowdown on the horizon or will it be continued growth? I probably have too large a % of my account in gold stocks,but Ill be out of them quickly if they make new lows. Rocket(who loves gold)

[Hmmm]

As mentioned in a previous post the $A has lost 10% against the baht in a week!......

The AUD$ has not lost 10% against the baht in the last week (or longer). It has lost almost 10% against the US$ in the last week but is essentially unchanged against the THB. The US$ has been appreciating against the THB again lately, since the beginning of the month.
http://www.oanda.com/products/fxgraph/fxgraph.shtml

[ned kelly-old]

Give or take a day, mid-rate on kasikorn on shore rate was $A=29.4 baht last week.
This morning mid-rate is 26.28. This is a drop of 10.6%.

Kenc,what gold stocks do you own? I just bought AU,the Austrailian gold stock as Ive made money on it in the past.The moment of truth is arriving for commoditie stocks,Is there a worldwide slowdown on the horizon or will it be continued growth? I probably have too large a % of my account in gold stocks,but Ill be out of them quickly if they make new lows. Rocket(who loves gold)

I should have said gold funds, not stocks.
It's my bet against the US$

But alas, as I said everything is falling right now.

Seriously considering the Euro and esp the Yen. As the carry-trade unwinds the Yen will soar.

[Hmmm]

Give or take a day, mid-rate on kasikorn on shore rate was $A=29.4 baht last week.
This morning mid-rate is 26.28. This is a drop of 10.6%.

Daily interbank rate for AUD$ vs THB in August
08/01/2007 25.85260000
08/02/2007 25.60550000
08/03/2007 25.74090000
08/04/2007 25.80620000
08/05/2007 25.74330000
08/06/2007 25.74330000
08/07/2007 25.84370000
08/08/2007 25.91920000
08/09/2007 26.24720000
08/10/2007 26.61910000
08/11/2007 26.34200000
08/12/2007 26.40770000
08/13/2007 26.40560000
08/14/2007 26.71820000
08/15/2007 26.60170000
08/16/2007 26.97530000
08/17/2007 26.44890000
08/18/2007 26.30870000

Average (18 days): 26.18495
High: 26.97530
Low: 25.60550

http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory? ... directed=1 (http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory?lang=en&date1=08%2F1%2F07&date=08%2F18%2F07&date_fmt=us&exch=AUD&exch2=&expr=THB&expr2=&margin_fixed=0&&SUBMIT=Get+Table&format=ASCII&redirected=1)

[ned kelly-old]

The rates listed for the $A are off-shore rates, and do not reflect the reality of living and changing money in Thailand. I am however surprised that there is such a difference as I would have expected a greater correlation.
For interest the $A hit a high of 0.882 against the $US about 2 weeks ago and is currently 0.787, down about 11% which suggests that the on-shore rate for the $US v baht has shown a slight appreciation.
Make no mistake about it, for any Aussie currently converting to baht......they're getting 10% less than they would have early last week, unless they were ill informed enough to convert overseas in which case they would be even worse off.

[Wesley]

you are right I never convert in the USA or London , the rate is usually fairly fixed on the street and altogether here I am loosing about 200 dollars per 1000 converted in contrast to one year ago. Inflation is also up dramatically here and seems as if there is no end to the rate of inflation rising even as the governent floods the market with Grain and really cheap grain a loaf of bread is up sharply with a 20% rate of inflation right now. If this continues I will need to sell off and move out before I loose me arse.

It's amazing how the bullshit flows when it comes to investing, although I guess it shows why so many need good advice.
"Raksiam" is correct...........over time equities out perform all other investment classes, so no matter whether your about to retire, are already retired or are years away from it, if you want to maximise your investment nest egg you need a major portion in equities.
Sure there will be volatility, there always has been and it ain't likely to change! But if you don't have to sell anything you've lost nothing. Even if your paying a pension from these investments it should represent only a small portion and if your lucky may even be largely covered by dividends.
Exchange rates are a lot more problematical, and are certainly important for self funded retirees who live in a different country from their income source. By and large you have to wear these. Economic forecasters have been consistently unreliable when it comes to FX. As for its rate against sterling, the $US, Euro or $A in the future....NO ONE knows. As mentioned in a previous post the $A has lost 10% against the baht in a week!.........Mai Pen Rai.

I don't swear on this board, so I will put **** in place of it.

What do you mean ****, if that is what it is, then all your thread is ****. "Volality", "Good advice" and "exchange rates" etc etc have all been discussed before, so in essence, that is **** also, as your thread opens up with the word ****

There are a few people on this board - at the moment, YOU, who are quite lapse in telling someone they are stupid, lame, thick and and frequently **** and come up with various comments that are not justified.

Why don' t you offer some fresh comments and/or advice that people haven't used before, then it won't be considered as ****, well certainly by myself.

I think you are talking about some kind of British thing I don't understand about. (Pension funds.)

Anyway, the investment principles are the same, stocks versus bonds.
I still contend the modern thinking is that even old people should have a good portion in equities:

You guys who think you should drop all equities at the date of retirement are running on ancient false assumptions. I would fire any advisor who advised that.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/16/pf/upde ... ymag_0603/ (http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/16/pf/updegrave_moneymag_0603/)


NEW YORK (MONEY Magazine) - It's an accepted tenet of retirement planning: You need to stay invested in stocks -- keeping, say, 30 percent or more of your investments in equities -- if you want your savings to last the three decades or more you may need it for income once you stop working.

The right balance, according to Ned Notzon, chairman of T. Rowe Price's asset allocation committee, is to start off with 40 to 60 percent of your portfolio in stocks at retirement. Then, as you age, gradually ratchet down your stock holdings until they represent 20 to 30 percent of your assets by the time you're in your eighties.


Balance is the key

[Brad the Impala]

This is only an opinion of mine and I would never suggest anyone take MY advice.

Indeed!

There is NO Asian econmic miracle!Indeed - I've posted an analysis of China's "economic miracle" statistics by Lester Thurow in the Global Forum - http://www.sawatdee-gay-thailand.com/fo ... tml#118858 (http://www.sawatdee-gay-thailand.com/forum/the-chinese-non-economic-miracle-t12520.html#118858)

You could stump up 1.5 million baht in a fixed deposit and get a 10-year visa for less-than-gay-friendly Malaysia - http://www.mm2h.com/term_conditions.php

Indeed!

What's all that about Brad?

Indeed!What's all that about Brad?Brad doesn't think much of your advice :idea:

[lonelywombat]

Give or take a day, mid-rate on kasikorn on shore rate was $A=29.4 baht last week.
This morning mid-rate is 26.28. This is a drop of 10.6%.

Ned can you give a link to Kasikorn where you got that rate

I have not seen as high as that for some time

There is another post above which gives the movements daily since 1 August , which averages much lower.

[ned kelly-old]

http://www.kasikornbank.com/GlobalHome/ ... /rate.html (http://www.kasikornbank.com/GlobalHome/TH/miscellenous/rate/rate.html)

Hope the above helps, which shows the rate you will get at the Kasikorn booth or for TT, etc.

Most exchange rate sites show what they term the "International Rate" or "Off-shore" rate that came into being about 6 months ago or there-abouts when the Military Government introduced the FX exchange controls to counter speculation. For a while banks and the credit card companies made a killing using this rate to convert baht, either via a foreign issued credit card or foreign TT. Competition seems to have largely eliminated this and I understand most banks now use the local rate, although not all, so it pays to check. As most people now realize, convert baht in Thailand not overseas.

Indeed!What's all that about Brad?Brad doesn't think much of your advice :idea:

Am I bovvered what Brad thinks!!

Am I bovvered what Brad thinks!!Bothered enough to respond

Am I bovvered what Brad thinks!!Bothered enough to respond

Of course I respond, gotta do something to get the message through!

And so say all of us

I feel a song coming on!