The coming failure of China ...

... as seen from Davos (the World Economic Forum)
There is almost no chance that China will become the world's hegemonic superpower, or that the Chinese yuan will dislodge the US dollar as the key reserve currency in our life-times. It is ageing faster than any nation in history. Indeed, there is a risk that ChinaтАЩs demographic structure will implode long before the great mass of ChinaтАЩs interior ever become rich. This was more or less the conclusion of a closed-door session of Chinese experts at the Davos gathering, regrettably on тАЬChatham HouseтАЭ rules so none can be named.The article is headed "The coming suicide epidemic in China" and is here - http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/d ... /china.htm (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/davosdiary/jan07/china.htm)

The Chinese are currently fond of portraying an extrapolation of their currrent economic growth and pointing to the date when they overtake everyone else. That misses the point that economics is a discipline of predicting cycles not trajectories. There are always limits to growth processes. There will, at least, be plateaus.

Of course they may be ruthless enough to reshape their demography with bullets to the back of the neck. One understands that the families of the "guilty" are required to pay for the bullets. But the limits may not be simple demography. Eventually the new trading partners will reshape the game having grown tired of near negative priced sweaters.

North Star what are you trying to say? And not even a first year social science student. "There will at least be plateaux"

What are you trying to say Cedric?

See http://www2.merriam-webster.com/cgi-bin ... va=plateau (http://www2.merriam-webster.com/cgi-bin/mwdictsn?va=plateau)

Unless you're another braindead economics "freshman"?? I think you've tripped over some pseudo-academic jargon. What is it you wish to say?

[cottmann]

... as seen from Davos (the World Economic Forum)
There is almost no chance that China will become the world's hegemonic superpower, or that the Chinese yuan will dislodge the US dollar as the key reserve currency in our life-times. It is ageing faster than any nation in history. Indeed, there is a risk that ChinaтАЩs demographic structure will implode long before the great mass of ChinaтАЩs interior ever become rich. This was more or less the conclusion of a closed-door session of Chinese experts at the Davos gathering, regrettably on тАЬChatham HouseтАЭ rules so none can be named.The article is headed "The coming suicide epidemic in China" and is here - http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/d ... /china.htm (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/davosdiary/jan07/china.htm)

Not news. Gordon Chang wrote about this in his book "The Coming Collapse of China," published by Random House in 2001.

[Lunchtime O'Booze]

but it's true. After seeing them buy up the MG factory and re-build it in a Chinese field and now turning out new MG's ..they are bound to go to the wall.

Who in the hell wants an MG ??

Imagine when they all become middle-class ?... :cherry: :cherry:

but it's true. After seeing them buy up the MG factory and re-build it in a Chinese field and now turning out new MG's ..they are bound to go to the wall.

Who in the hell wants an MG ??


Or a fucking Rover!

Imagine when they all become middle-class ?... cherry cherry

They are the middle kingdom; positioned to mediate twixt heaven and earth. What could be more middle class than the Analects of Confucius. They've been middle class for 5000 years.

[Dboy]

Come on, the one-child policy doesn't have to lead to suicide. All they need to do is create a Chinese Pattaya. Problem solved. You guys are over-thinking this stuff:-)


Dboy