November 23rd, 2006, 21:03
Vietnam!
Beginning? Of course, to me Iraq looked like another Vietnem before the US/British led invasion. Others say NO Vietnam, but much worse ...
Iraq is more complicated quagmire than Vietnam
During the very week when America finally got down to a real debate over Iraq, President Bush went to ... Vietnam.
The symbolism is astonishing. Here was a president who avoided serving in Vietnam by joining the Texas Air National Guard, now flying to an international summit in Hanoi. And his visit followed right after a U.S. election that turned on whether Iraq has become a quagmire like Vietnam.
And there was Bush chatting up Vietnamese communists about free trade, 31 years after our exit from Saigon. Remember how that debacle sparked dire predictions that the neighboring countries would fall, like dominoes, to communism? Of course, those predictions never came true.
So I’m not surprised to be getting reader e-mail that asks whether the “doomsday predictions of what might happen if we withdraw from Iraq” aren’t exaggerated. “I remember the same was said about Vietnam if we abandoned it to the communists,” wrote one reader, “and look at our relationship now ...” A fair enough point. But are the two cases really similar?
Let me start by saying Iraq is no Vietnam. The complex Iraqi situation makes the Vietnam War look simple. And I believe the consequences of a swift U.S. withdrawal would be far, far worse than the repercussions of Vietnam.
Why so? The nature of the violence in the two countries is very different. In Vietnam, the struggle was fought by a nationalist movement (with communist ideology) fighting to drive out U.S. forces.
In Iraq, the most vicious violence reflects an internal power struggle between minority Sunni Muslims who were allied with Saddam Hussein and the long-persecuted majority of Iraqi Shiite Muslims.
Hard-line members of this Sunni minority began to instigate chaos right after the invasion. They hoped to scare the Iraqi people into restoring a Sunni dictator. Sunni jihadis deliberately sought to provoke a civil war with Shiites.
Shiites refrained from revenge until last February, when the bombing of a holy shrine shattered their restraint. Iraq is now mired in a cycle of sectarian killing.
In such circumstances it is tempting to call for a speedy U.S. exit. Some thoughtful Bush critics argue that a quick withdrawal couldn’t cause worse violence than Iraq now faces.
But unlike Vietnam, there is no strong nationalist movement in Iraq waiting to take over.
Also, unlike Vietnam the spillover from Iraq would affect a strategically vital region that produces oil and Islamist terrorists.
And finally, unlike Vietnam, the many Iraqis who worked with the Americans would not be sent to re-education camps, nor could they easily flee the country. Many thousands would probably be slaughtered, and their deaths would further blot America’s tattered honor.
These reasons make me resist calling for a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq in the near term. We must first exhaust every effort to find a way to stabilize the country — and persuade Iraq’s neighbors to contribute. We owe Iraqis — and ourselves — that much.
The Philadelphia Inquirer
Beginning? Of course, to me Iraq looked like another Vietnem before the US/British led invasion. Others say NO Vietnam, but much worse ...
Iraq is more complicated quagmire than Vietnam
During the very week when America finally got down to a real debate over Iraq, President Bush went to ... Vietnam.
The symbolism is astonishing. Here was a president who avoided serving in Vietnam by joining the Texas Air National Guard, now flying to an international summit in Hanoi. And his visit followed right after a U.S. election that turned on whether Iraq has become a quagmire like Vietnam.
And there was Bush chatting up Vietnamese communists about free trade, 31 years after our exit from Saigon. Remember how that debacle sparked dire predictions that the neighboring countries would fall, like dominoes, to communism? Of course, those predictions never came true.
So I’m not surprised to be getting reader e-mail that asks whether the “doomsday predictions of what might happen if we withdraw from Iraq” aren’t exaggerated. “I remember the same was said about Vietnam if we abandoned it to the communists,” wrote one reader, “and look at our relationship now ...” A fair enough point. But are the two cases really similar?
Let me start by saying Iraq is no Vietnam. The complex Iraqi situation makes the Vietnam War look simple. And I believe the consequences of a swift U.S. withdrawal would be far, far worse than the repercussions of Vietnam.
Why so? The nature of the violence in the two countries is very different. In Vietnam, the struggle was fought by a nationalist movement (with communist ideology) fighting to drive out U.S. forces.
In Iraq, the most vicious violence reflects an internal power struggle between minority Sunni Muslims who were allied with Saddam Hussein and the long-persecuted majority of Iraqi Shiite Muslims.
Hard-line members of this Sunni minority began to instigate chaos right after the invasion. They hoped to scare the Iraqi people into restoring a Sunni dictator. Sunni jihadis deliberately sought to provoke a civil war with Shiites.
Shiites refrained from revenge until last February, when the bombing of a holy shrine shattered their restraint. Iraq is now mired in a cycle of sectarian killing.
In such circumstances it is tempting to call for a speedy U.S. exit. Some thoughtful Bush critics argue that a quick withdrawal couldn’t cause worse violence than Iraq now faces.
But unlike Vietnam, there is no strong nationalist movement in Iraq waiting to take over.
Also, unlike Vietnam the spillover from Iraq would affect a strategically vital region that produces oil and Islamist terrorists.
And finally, unlike Vietnam, the many Iraqis who worked with the Americans would not be sent to re-education camps, nor could they easily flee the country. Many thousands would probably be slaughtered, and their deaths would further blot America’s tattered honor.
These reasons make me resist calling for a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq in the near term. We must first exhaust every effort to find a way to stabilize the country — and persuade Iraq’s neighbors to contribute. We owe Iraqis — and ourselves — that much.
The Philadelphia Inquirer