November 10th, 2006, 10:31
By Shawn W Crispin Asia Times
BANGKOK - For those looking for chinks in Thailand's new government's armor, they'll be hard-pressed to find any vulnerability in the military-appointed interim administration's economic stewardship.
Six weeks after the September 19 coup, the Thai economy is moving from statistical strength to strength. While tanks rolled along Bangkok's streets, Thai exporters ran up the country's largest-ever monthly trade surplus at US$1.4 billion. Those
revenues contributed to Thailand's biggest balance of payments surplus since 1997, evidence that foreign investors were pouring money into the country before, during and after the military seized power. Surging capital inflows last month pushed the baht to a six-year high against the greenback.
Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings provisionally placed Thailand on a so-called rating watch negative list after the coup, but both credit-rating agencies retracted their alarm after new Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont consolidated his power and appointed well-respected technocrats to key economic and finance portfolios. Now, a growing number of foreign investment banks have revised up their Thailand economic growth forecasts for 2007 from below 4% to near 5%, on expectations that the recent 25% decline in global oil prices will spark a new consumption and investment cycle.
That's significant for Thailand, where economic dips have historically presaged bouts of political instability. So far investors believe that the September putsch has shored up stability after a year of anti-government street protests and general political chaos - though self-exiled and former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's ambitions and His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej's health are still two major, potentially volatile, wild cards. And because Surayud's government derives its legitimacy from the crown, it's wholly unclear how Thailand's power balance would recalibrate and foreign investors react if the ailing revered monarch were to pass in the coming months.
Firm salute
While most of Thailand's good economic news has been externally driven, Surayud's government deserves a firm salute for maintaining foreign investor confidence during tumultuous times. He dazzled foreign reporters and business people alike during a Tuesday speech, where in prepared English-language remarks he reaffirmed his government's commitment to a "free-market economy" and asserted that its application of King Bhumibol's "sufficiency economy" should not be confused with protectionism. ......
Full article: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_ ... 0Ae01.html (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HK10Ae01.html)
BANGKOK - For those looking for chinks in Thailand's new government's armor, they'll be hard-pressed to find any vulnerability in the military-appointed interim administration's economic stewardship.
Six weeks after the September 19 coup, the Thai economy is moving from statistical strength to strength. While tanks rolled along Bangkok's streets, Thai exporters ran up the country's largest-ever monthly trade surplus at US$1.4 billion. Those
revenues contributed to Thailand's biggest balance of payments surplus since 1997, evidence that foreign investors were pouring money into the country before, during and after the military seized power. Surging capital inflows last month pushed the baht to a six-year high against the greenback.
Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings provisionally placed Thailand on a so-called rating watch negative list after the coup, but both credit-rating agencies retracted their alarm after new Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont consolidated his power and appointed well-respected technocrats to key economic and finance portfolios. Now, a growing number of foreign investment banks have revised up their Thailand economic growth forecasts for 2007 from below 4% to near 5%, on expectations that the recent 25% decline in global oil prices will spark a new consumption and investment cycle.
That's significant for Thailand, where economic dips have historically presaged bouts of political instability. So far investors believe that the September putsch has shored up stability after a year of anti-government street protests and general political chaos - though self-exiled and former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's ambitions and His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej's health are still two major, potentially volatile, wild cards. And because Surayud's government derives its legitimacy from the crown, it's wholly unclear how Thailand's power balance would recalibrate and foreign investors react if the ailing revered monarch were to pass in the coming months.
Firm salute
While most of Thailand's good economic news has been externally driven, Surayud's government deserves a firm salute for maintaining foreign investor confidence during tumultuous times. He dazzled foreign reporters and business people alike during a Tuesday speech, where in prepared English-language remarks he reaffirmed his government's commitment to a "free-market economy" and asserted that its application of King Bhumibol's "sufficiency economy" should not be confused with protectionism. ......
Full article: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_ ... 0Ae01.html (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HK10Ae01.html)