October 6th, 2006, 07:41
A stormy start
Sep 28th 2006 | BANGKOK
From The Economist print edition
The junta's stumbling first steps
THE storms that lashed Thailand this week were a fitting Shakespearean metaphor for the kingdom's troubles. A week after a coup by six top military men overthrew the government of Thaksin Shinawatra, the streets remained calm. But the generals were still struggling to find a suitable statesman to head the civilian administration to which they have promised to hand power by October 4th. To soften its image, the Council for Democratic Reform, as the junta calls itself, has appointed various advisory bodies, stuffed with Thailand's great and good. However, several of them have complained that the generals announced their names without asking them if they wanted to take part.
The generals were stung by criticism of the coup by foreign governments and human-rights bodies. The United Nations' human-rights chief, Louise Arbour, condemned their restrictions on free speech and freedom of assembly. In a meeting with foreign ambassadors this week, the junta reportedly asked them not to see only the тАЬdark sideтАЭ of the coup, but to give them a chance to keep their promise to restore democracy.
It seems they intend to restore it only up to a point. The civilian prime minister will choose his own cabinet. But the junta will continue to тАЬassistтАЭ the new government in running the country, said one of its members, General Winai Phattiyakul. The generals will select an interim National Assembly and they will also have a strong hand in choosing a body to draft a new constitution.
Indeed, the тАЬcivilianтАЭ prime minister may turn out to be a military man. An early, strong favourite for the job was Supachai Panitchpakdi, a former deputy prime minister who now runs the UN's trade and development agency. But he was said to be resisting the generals' pleas to take the job. Fishily, in mid-week, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the army chief and junta leader, started mentioning that retired military officers were also civilians.
This prompted speculation that one of his predecessors, Surayud Chulanont, was in line for the job. Mr Surayud, now an adviser to King Bhumibol, had a reputation for cleaning up corruption in the armed forces. He would command widespread respect in Thailand if chosen. But he may not be the right man to stand up to his former comrades if the junta tries to meddle in the interim government's affairs.
The generals have drafted a temporary constitution, to remain in force until a permanent one has been written and put to a referendum. They were planning to ask the king to approve it on September 30th. Academics shown the draft were pleased to see it affirmed basic rights, including press freedom. But it remains to be seen how soon and how fully the junta will lift its ban on political gatherings. Several small anti-coup protests, held in central Bangkok in defiance of the ban, were ignored. If they get bigger, the generals' patience will be tested.
The sight, in recent days, of Bangkok citizens welcoming the soldiers on their streets is reminiscent of Thailand's last coup, in 1991, says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist. That coup was popular at first, for overthrowing a government widely seen as corrupt, like Mr Thaksin's. But public opinion changed drastically as the army clung to power. Rising protests and, eventually, bloodshed ensued. History could repeat itself, worries Mr Thitinan. Some opponents of Mr Thaksin, while welcoming his downfall, opposed the coup. If the generals are heavy-handed, they could find themselves ranged against an unholy alliance between the opponents and supporters of the deposed prime minister, says Mr Thitinan. However, the generals have little choice but to keep a hand in guiding the country through its crisis, since they stand to be blamed if it all goes wrong. Striking the right balance will be hard.
The generals have shown some degree of political savvy: they promise that several of Mr Thaksin's most popular programmes, including cheap health-care and a micro-loans scheme to cut rural poverty, will continue. An expansionary budget is being prepared, to help the Thai economy ride out the political storm. These policies should reduce the chances of a backlash by Mr Thaksin's supporters in the countryside. The big investigations that have been started into corruption in the Thaksin government may sap support for the deposed leader and his Thai Rak Thai party, reducing their chances of a comeback. But they will not eliminate them: Mr Thaksin, exiled in London, will be hoping that the army forces, and their civilian appointees, make such a mess that one day he will be welcomed back, his sins forgiven
Sep 28th 2006 | BANGKOK
From The Economist print edition
The junta's stumbling first steps
THE storms that lashed Thailand this week were a fitting Shakespearean metaphor for the kingdom's troubles. A week after a coup by six top military men overthrew the government of Thaksin Shinawatra, the streets remained calm. But the generals were still struggling to find a suitable statesman to head the civilian administration to which they have promised to hand power by October 4th. To soften its image, the Council for Democratic Reform, as the junta calls itself, has appointed various advisory bodies, stuffed with Thailand's great and good. However, several of them have complained that the generals announced their names without asking them if they wanted to take part.
The generals were stung by criticism of the coup by foreign governments and human-rights bodies. The United Nations' human-rights chief, Louise Arbour, condemned their restrictions on free speech and freedom of assembly. In a meeting with foreign ambassadors this week, the junta reportedly asked them not to see only the тАЬdark sideтАЭ of the coup, but to give them a chance to keep their promise to restore democracy.
It seems they intend to restore it only up to a point. The civilian prime minister will choose his own cabinet. But the junta will continue to тАЬassistтАЭ the new government in running the country, said one of its members, General Winai Phattiyakul. The generals will select an interim National Assembly and they will also have a strong hand in choosing a body to draft a new constitution.
Indeed, the тАЬcivilianтАЭ prime minister may turn out to be a military man. An early, strong favourite for the job was Supachai Panitchpakdi, a former deputy prime minister who now runs the UN's trade and development agency. But he was said to be resisting the generals' pleas to take the job. Fishily, in mid-week, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the army chief and junta leader, started mentioning that retired military officers were also civilians.
This prompted speculation that one of his predecessors, Surayud Chulanont, was in line for the job. Mr Surayud, now an adviser to King Bhumibol, had a reputation for cleaning up corruption in the armed forces. He would command widespread respect in Thailand if chosen. But he may not be the right man to stand up to his former comrades if the junta tries to meddle in the interim government's affairs.
The generals have drafted a temporary constitution, to remain in force until a permanent one has been written and put to a referendum. They were planning to ask the king to approve it on September 30th. Academics shown the draft were pleased to see it affirmed basic rights, including press freedom. But it remains to be seen how soon and how fully the junta will lift its ban on political gatherings. Several small anti-coup protests, held in central Bangkok in defiance of the ban, were ignored. If they get bigger, the generals' patience will be tested.
The sight, in recent days, of Bangkok citizens welcoming the soldiers on their streets is reminiscent of Thailand's last coup, in 1991, says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist. That coup was popular at first, for overthrowing a government widely seen as corrupt, like Mr Thaksin's. But public opinion changed drastically as the army clung to power. Rising protests and, eventually, bloodshed ensued. History could repeat itself, worries Mr Thitinan. Some opponents of Mr Thaksin, while welcoming his downfall, opposed the coup. If the generals are heavy-handed, they could find themselves ranged against an unholy alliance between the opponents and supporters of the deposed prime minister, says Mr Thitinan. However, the generals have little choice but to keep a hand in guiding the country through its crisis, since they stand to be blamed if it all goes wrong. Striking the right balance will be hard.
The generals have shown some degree of political savvy: they promise that several of Mr Thaksin's most popular programmes, including cheap health-care and a micro-loans scheme to cut rural poverty, will continue. An expansionary budget is being prepared, to help the Thai economy ride out the political storm. These policies should reduce the chances of a backlash by Mr Thaksin's supporters in the countryside. The big investigations that have been started into corruption in the Thaksin government may sap support for the deposed leader and his Thai Rak Thai party, reducing their chances of a comeback. But they will not eliminate them: Mr Thaksin, exiled in London, will be hoping that the army forces, and their civilian appointees, make such a mess that one day he will be welcomed back, his sins forgiven