Apres le coup: property in Pattaya

Does tighter visa control + bombs + coup = property price collapse?

My initial reaction to all the news coming out of Thailand at the moment is to say I am glad I did not buy a condo in Bangkok last year as I was planning to do, as I would guess that the market is about to undertake a major, downward correction. A fellow Sydney-sider bought two condos in Pattaya a couple of years ago, however, as he is a few years short of 50, he will not be able to make much use of them in the future. Apparently, he is having extreme difficulty renting them out as well, due to the market oversupply situation. I will assess the situation carefully over the next 6-12 months as to whether to buy.

Hmm it seems this thoroughly pleasant coup has had very few pleasant spinoffs, besides Thaksins downfall, collapsing property prices, no doing.
I was hoping it would become a buyers market myself, but no, the entire world except America seems to have full confidence in Thailand and it's recent actions, even the Baht hardly moved.

I haven't seen the reaction of any other countries in the press, have you? I can't imagine many applauding the replacement of a democratically-elected leader with a military dictatorship. Please share.

Yes I have, there was a list of them on The nation, go look.

Let me guess:

Myanmar
North Korea
Iran
Singapore (oops, maybe not)

What is with you and America, Cedric?

Not all Americans are overly fond Bush and his ways. Just because I do not like some of Blairs thoughts does not mean that I am anti-British!

xuanloc, that's all.

If the world is rejoicing, as Cedric seems to believe, why the uncertainty?

FOCUS - Thai economy could suffer from deferred investments after coup

BANGKOK (XFN-ASIA) - Last week's military coup could affect investments and dent economic growth in the near term as it has created uncertainty over the country's future, especially in the eyes of foreign investors, analysts said.

'In the eyes of foreign investors, the coup was taken as a blow to democracy. Most foreign investors were surprised by the coup. They did not expect this to happen,' said an economist who declined to be named.

'After the coup, there was more uncertainty. We cannot see the direction of Thailand, and the coup would likely dampen consumer spending and slow down economic growth.'

Vallop Tiasiri, president of the Thai Automotive Institute, a state-funded agency that promotes the car industry, said he expects a slump in investments due to mounting political uncertainty.

'In the world of business, uncertainty means high risk' for major investments, Vallop said.

'During the past year, everybody was taking a wait-and-see stance before making any big investment decisions, and they have to wait again,' he said.

Since January, Thailand has been mired in the political crisis, which erupted amid public anger over the tax-free sale by deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra's family's of shares in Shin Corp, the telecoms giant Thaksin founded before entering office.

Thailand has repeatedly revised down its economic forecast due to the prolonged political paralysis, with the economy seen rising just 4.0 pct this year compared with 5.0 pct projected earlier.

With Thaksin's government gone, Pornsilp Patcharintanakul, deputy secretary-general of the Board of Trade, also voiced caution over the economy, citing a possible cancellation of a five-year economic booster program.

Thaksin last year unveiled the 1.70-trln-baht scheme that includes plans to expand Bangkok's mass transit railway system and upgrade the country's infrastructure.

The project was supposed to bring massive foreign investments to Thailand as more than 1,000 foreign firms had shown interests in joining the project, but Pornsilp said the scheme is gone for good.

'I don't think the project will go ahead,' he said. 'Everything has changed.'

The economist who declined to be named also said the coup virtually halted Thailand's trade talks with foreign governments, particularly free trade deals with the US and Japan, the kingdom's top economic partners.

'Not only the United States, but no other country will pursue free trade agreements with Thailand, because the international community will not accept an interim government,' he said.

'Foreign governments will wait until a fully elected government takes charge next year,' said the economist, referring to October 2007 polls promised by the junta. 'Until then, no foreign government will pursue serious trade talks.'

As far as I can see, the new coup government, if that is what you call it, have taken over in a calm and probably efficient as possible manner, I personally do not think economics will be affected heavily, there might be a lull in the markets but I think the stable bht over the past week has been proof of that. And dont be fooled by a lull in the property market, all one has to do is hold until things settle down - might take a few years but eventually everything comes up roses.

Great advice, of course, as long as you have a few years to "hold on". Not everyone has that luxury.

If the world is rejoicing, as Cedric seems to believe, why the uncertainty....................................... .................................................. .................................................. .......
'Foreign governments will wait until a fully elected government takes charge next year,' said the economist, referring to October 2007 polls promised by the junta. 'Until then, no foreign government will pursue serious trade talks.'

Of course there is going to be uncertainty, there always was going to be. Most of these projects are going to be under investigation linked to corruption charges at Thaksins government anyway. Nothing like slowing an economy down for real growth and development to take place. Even the new airport is considered by quite few economists to be a reckless and wasteful enterprise that will never fore-fill it's capacity. Have no fear the Thai economy will be better without Thaksin. All his grand schemes might very well foster the semblance of a thriving economy but they are no more than grand posturing based on fuck all else and riddled with corruption. Take a good look around Asia and you will see a lot of the same. Everyone suddenly wants to be a "hub" everyone wants to be the next Singapore, fuck knows why, but there it is. No one has learnt the lessons of the last Asian crash. While China swallows vast chunks of the business and development and growth, places like Singapore are lookong sickly and without a purpose, never mind also being undemocratic.
Thailand is in danger of being built under by rampant uncontrolled development, yet again. This has it's dangers of course as more and more people choose to go else where for their holiday, thinking quite rightly that Thailand has been wrecked. A nice solid pause of a year or so will benefit them hugely. Sustainable growth should be the result.
Rember Thailand is not a business it is home to the Thai people, growth in an economy might well keep the worlds economic wheels turning, but if it has no solid foundations it is no more than castles in the sky. Wank wank the biggest and the best, there certainly are other things in life more important than economic growth, certainly when it almost surely comes at the expense of the Thai people themselves .

mght take a few years but eventually everything comes up roses.In the meantime several of our members will have died

Rember Thailand is not a business it is home to the Thai people, growth in an economy might well keep the worlds economic wheels turning, but if it has no solid foundations it is no more than castles in the skyAccording to the King, all the Thais need to do is practice their own version of North Korea's juche policy and all will be well

Great advice, of course, as long as you have a few years to "hold on". Not everyone has that luxury.

Dunno if you remember, but in the UK early 90's there was a crash in the UK with regard to property. And this is the story, the property was bought at 44k (UK) it went up to around 70k, then basically plumetted to around, well if you could get it, 35k. Now only a loss of 9k from what was paid but 35k on its top price of 70k. Interest rates went sky high at the time, and no-one wanted the property, and 70% of that person's salary went in mortgage payments. That person waited 10 years for the market to pick up and sold it at 66k. For your information, if that person held on even more it is now worth around 150k

Now I wouldn't say that was luxury. If that person sold the property at 35k, they would be in trouble wouldnt they. One has to live somewhere. Just hold on till the tide turns!!

Dunno if you remember, but in the UK early 90's there was a crash in the UK with regard to propertyAnd the London property market is sooooooooooo analagous to the Pattaya property market

... the point being one has a choice of being smart or not smart. Do they want to sell at a loss and put up with the losses and probably be, in some cases, bankrupt and take a chance and that is all it is a chance on waiting for things to recover and paying their mortgage in the meantime or try to anyway, and pocket the profits at the end of the day.

Its a question of whether one is smart or not, not whether the property markets are similar, linked or whatever.

The choice is there.

... the point being one has a choice of being smart or not smart. Do they want to sell at a loss and put up with the losses and probably be, in some cases, bankrupt and take a chance and that is all it is a chance on waiting for things to recover and paying their mortgage in the meantime or try to anyway, and pocket the profits at the end of the day.

Its a question of whether one is smart or not, not whether the property markets are similar, linked or whatever.

The choice is there.

Mind you there is another way of lookin at it, yep, we are all going to kick the bucket some day, so live for today, go into debt and more debt, buy whatever, swindle people out of whatever, life is too short to worry about who you owe money to. Who gives a hoot!

... the point being one has a choice of being smart or not smart!The smart choice is not to buy in the first place - as many, many people are now about to find out. That is the real point

[sattahip-old]

Dear Homintern,
You are just soooooooo wise.

[Impulse]

I say buy more if you can afford it.Real estate always comes back,and then surprises everyone and goes even higher.Of course you can to time it but that is risky and only advisable if you have more than one property.I thought of selling my residence here in the States in 2003 and then renting,as it seemed we were in a bubble.Well we were in a bubble but it would have proved to be bad timing as the market didnt peak until August of last year.In fact it would have been downright silly,glad I didnt do it.My friends are asking me about my condo in Thailand and what will happen now.I tell them that they are using it as their headquarters and will return it to me after the coup is over.

I agree: buy more. Particularly if you're interested in the Bangkok condo I now have on the market!

Homitern is a carpet bagger and property speculator hoping to create panic and drive down prices and cash in on hysterical farangs as they flee Thailand.

He won't won't frighten me..I'm holding onto my caravan in the carpark at the building site of the fabulous new
Ocean I Tower and intend to be there when Sir Elton John arrives so I can fling open the gates and prostrate myself over a puddle of water for him to step over.

[Brad the Impala]

Homitern is a carpet bagger and property speculator hoping to create panic and drive down prices and cash in on hysterical farangs as they flee Thailand.

He won't won't frighten me..I'm holding onto my caravan in the carpark at the building site of the fabulous new
Ocean I Tower and intend to be there when Sir Elton John arrives so I can fling open the gates and prostrate myself over a puddle of water for him to step over.

Don't you mean a lake!

... the point being one has a choice of being smart or not smart!The smart choice is not to buy in the first place - as many, many people are now about to find out. That is the real point

I wouldnt say that is very smart, lets face it over the past how many years property has been one of the only sources (but not the only one) that one can make money and still is.

Mind you here's a little story on making money - my friend, who strangely enough is a serial carpet bagger (someone was on about them in an earlier thread) has just been paid her salary and someone somewhere has made a mistake - WAIT FOR IT - to the tune of paying her 100,000 pound instead of 1,000, those are not the exact figures but the bottom line is near enough that much, and there is a sting in the tail, she is not the only one they have done it to, other members of staff have noticed it too, so I dont know how many, but they have added two zeros to to their figures. This is not bull or lies - the company probably will get it back - someone obviously made a silly mistake who it was I aint got no idea - NOW THAT WOULD BE A PROPERTY IN PATTAYA wouldnt it

Uncertain times are a good time to BUY.