Thailand back to work 36 hours after coup - Reuters

Thailand back to work 36 hours after coup
Thu Sep 21, 2006 07:10 AM ET

By Sonya Hepinstall
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand was back to work as normal on Thursday, just 36 hours after a military coup that was condemned abroad but legitimised by the royal palace and greeted by many Thais with relief.

A day after the military shut down the city, in the interests of maintaining calm, they said, Bangkok traffic was back to the familiar near-gridlock, while coup leaders worked on fulfilling a promise of a civilian prime minister in two weeks.

Ousted leader Thaksin Shinawatra, now in London after arriving from New York, where he was at the U.N. General Assembly when the coup was staged on Tuesday, appeared to accept his fate.

"I was prime minister when I came, and I was jobless on the way back," the Thai News Agency quoted him as telling reporters travelling with him. "I volunteered to work for the country, but if they don't want me to do that, I won't."

Thaksin was welcome to return home to Thailand, coup leaders said, although the police chief made clear he would have to face charges already filed, including charges of election fraud.

The politically wise, however, were not ruling Thaksin out of the game.

"This is not a man who likes to lose," Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University told reporters. "Thaksin's support runs deep."

"If there's an election supervised by the U.N., Thaksin and Thai Rak Thai would win, and that's a problem for Thailand," he said, referring to Thaksin's political party, which translates as Thais Love Thais.

He does not appear to have lost support in the countryside which swept him to two election landslide victories and made him Thailand's longest-serving elected prime minister.

Dao Khempanya, A 65-year-old farmer in the paddy fields and coconut groves of Nonthaburi, 50 km (30 miles) west of Bangkok, said the coup was the best way to end political strife in a society which values harmony and abhors conflict.

But his devotion to Thaksin was undiminished.

"Please come back Mr Thaksin and we'll re-elect you," he said with a toothy grin.

ECONOMY FEARS EASE

Fears for the Thai economy eased as calm prevailed and coup leaders set out the timetable for return to civilian rule, although Morgan Stanley cut its annual economic growth forecast for the second half of the year to 2.4 percent from 3.5 percent.

Thai stocks dropped some four percent on reopening on Thursday but soon recovered as foreign investors picked up what they considered cheap shares from retail investors not wanting to carry the risk.

The market was down around 1 percent, a far less precipitous drop than feared in the immediate aftermath of the coup, when credit ratings firms had warned of possible downgrades.

The markets received some reassurance from a royal proclamation legitimising the military government. That was a "positive development", ABN AMRO Bank strategist Shahab Jalinoos said in a note to clients.

Moody's Investor Service reaffirmed Thailand's ratings and stable outlook on Thursday and the Thai baht was steady in early trade after shedding nearly two percent on Tuesday.

ELECTION IN A YEAR

The coup leaders said they would craft within a year a constitution to repair flaws Thaksin was accused of exploiting to wield near dictatorial powers, then hold an election.

"We have two weeks. After two weeks, we step out," said army chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin. "It will take a year to draft a new constitution."

In the meantime, Thailand was technically still under martial law. The military issued orders on Wednesday banning political gatherings of more than five people and restricting information critical of the coup from being distributed on the Internet and scrolled on television stations.

The United States said there was no justification for the coup, but pointedly did not demand that Thaksin be returned to power and instead urged a swift return to democracy.

"We're disappointed in the coup. We hope that those who mounted it will make good swiftly on their promises to restore democracy," White House spokesman Tony Snow said.

Tuesday's putsch was Thailand's first coup in 15 years but its 18th since it became a constitutional monarchy in 1932.

The military said it was forced to act because there was no other way out of a protracted political crisis that pitted Thaksin against the old guard and street campaigners accusing him of subverting democracy for his family and friends in business.

Not a shot was fired and many Thais seemed to welcome the coup, as long as it stayed peaceful.

Cost of the coup - The Times
Thailand's military leaders must promise a swift return to democracy

America, Britain and the rest of the European Union have rightly condemned the military coup in Thailand as undemocratic, and there is considerable alarm that, after 15 years of civilian rule, the army has reverted to interfering in politics. This is the eighteenth coup since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932. Western governments have nevertheless been relieved that so far it has been bloodless, that normal life has been little disrupted and that there is no economic damage or threat to tourists.
With the proclamation of a new constitution and a new тАЬPolitical Reform CouncilтАЭ, it is clear that the coup is a fait accompli. What matters now to Thais and to the outside world are the intentions of the new rulers, their plans for dealing with ThailandтАЩs problems and the timetable for a re-storation of democratic government.

General Sondhi Boonyaratglin, the army chief of staff, announced that a new prime minister would be chosen within two weeks. But he also said that it would take a year to produce a new constitution and hold fresh elections. That is less encouraging. The army clearly fears that if elections were to go ahead this year, there is a good chance that Thaksin Shinawatra, the ousted Prime Minister, would again win. He may be deeply unpopular in Bangkok, but he still retains a strong following in the countryside, where his promises to stand up for the small man are appealing despite the corruption charges against him and his lamentable political record.

How the Constitution can be mani-pulated to keep him out of power is unclear. The Political Reform Council has an ominous ring to it, and is unpleasantly reminiscent of the name the junta in neighbouring Burma gave itself тАФ the State Law and Order Restoration Council. The Thai coup leaders, however, say that the new body has been endorsed by royal pro-clamation. If true, that is significant. King Bhumibol Adulyadej is revered throughout the country. His inter- ventions in politics are rare but influential. Whether, in fact, he is ready so quickly to legitimise the coup must be open to question: while his endorsement is crucial to the coupтАЩs success, he would normally weigh the options carefully before speaking out.

It is clear, however, that Mr Thaksin was seen by many leading Thais as a divisive figure. The King himself urged the courts to order a rerun of the discredited April election that was boycotted by the Opposition. What has especially worried most people is the clumsy handling of the insurgency in the three southernmost Muslim pro-vinces. And although General Sondhi is himself a Muslim and yesterday spoke of the need for effective conciliation, it would be disingenuous for the army to lay all the blame on Mr Thaksin: it was, after all, the army that carried out sharp reprisals against the Muslim insurgents. This issue must be a priority for the new council. At the same time, it must give swift and convincing proof that it intends to restore democratic government as soon as possible. However bloodless a coup and inept a prime minister, it is the wrong way to remove an elected leader.

Thai election pledge as ousted leader finds refuge in London
By Richard Lloyd Parry in Bangkok, David Brown and Richard Beeston

THAILANDтАЩS deposed Prime Minister began a new life as a political refugee in London last night, where he started to rally supporters and took the first steps towards establishing a government in exile.
As the leader of the military coup tightened his grip over the country and announced that a new Prime Minister would be appointed in two weeksтАЩ time, Thaksin Shinawatra touched down at Gatwick from New York.

Smiling and looking relaxed, he was driven away in a black Mercedes with the registration number тАЬTHAI 1тАЭ. He was accompanied by several aides and was expected to be joined by Kanthathi Suphamongkhon, his Foreign Minister.

The arrival of the billionaire businessman-turned-politician put the British Government in an embarrassing position. It said that Mr Thaksin was welcome here as a private visitor, but pointedly refused to endorse his return to power. тАЬIt is not for us to say that he should be reinstalled,тАЭ Margaret Beckett, the Foreign Secretary, said. тАЬWe have called for a return to democratic government.тАЭ

Mr Thaksin has close personal and business interests in Britain and is a frequent visitor to London, where he recently brought a luxury home. It is believed that he will be reunited there with his wife, who left Thailand on Tuesday, and their two daughters and son.

British officials said that there was a tacit agreement with the new Thai military authorities to allow the ousted Prime Minister to remain in London, but that could change if he attempts to rebuild his power base and launch a political comeback from Britain.

тАЬThere is the intriguing possibility that he could be considering a government in exile,тАЭ Jason Abbott, a specialist in South-East Asian politics at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, said. тАЬHe is a maverick and he may think that this is a battle he can win if if he toughs it out.тАЭ But engineering a return to power half way across the world looked like an increasingly difficult task last night.

Promises ring hollow as democracy takes a long step backwards
World Briefing by Bronwen Maddox

ONCE democracy is set aside it can take a long time to get it back. Ask Pakistan.

So the reassurances of the leaders of the military coup in Thailand that there will be a new general election in something over a year ring hollow. The coup represents a long step backwards that will undermine the progress of democracy in the region.

The most stabilising influence would seem to come from the revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej, 78, whose picture adorns the walls of restaurants and offices across the country. The coup leaders claim to be acting with his support.

The more that is true (and the King, who speaks rarely, has yet to comment), the better the hopes for immediate stability in Thailand. But that is not the same thing as democracy тАФ or long-term peace.

There is one uncomfortable feature of Thai politics that led to the coup, and which is common to many rapidly developing countries, including India: the deep rift between the rural poor and the huge urban populations.

Thaksin Shinawatra, the deposed Prime Minister, owed his overwhelming majorities in 2001 and 2005 to the support of rural areas (although he would not have won without some support in the towns, too).

That point exposes the bankruptcy of the justifications given by General Sondhi Boonyaratglin for the coup. The complaints against Mr Thaksin are about his handling of the office of prime minister: putting cronies in key jobs and pouring cash into the countryside to secure his vote. Many of these complaints are well founded; he was a poor prime minister.

But the complaints did not generally extend to the conduct of the elections themselves. Mr Thaksin was popularly and overwhelmingly elected. The army chiefтАЩs reasons for deposing him count for little against that central point.

If Mr Thaksin were allowed to stand for election now he may still win. That is why General SondhiтАЩs plan to allow at least a year for writing a new constitution, which would permit a new general election, is ominous. His clear intention is to rewrite the rules so that Mr Thaksin cannot win. The changes are тАЬnecessary to institute reforms to resolve a political stalemateтАЭ, in a preposterous euphemism. General Sondhi says that he тАФ or an appointed interim government тАФ will make sure that the electoral commission is stripped of Mr ThaksinтАЩs cronies. The Prime Minister was hardly blameless in that department, but this declaration perverts the vocabulary of democracy. Even if elections do take place in a little over a year, it is not clear that they will be fair.

Thailand had boasted that it had not suffered a coup for 15 years, like a patient distancing himself from the last discerned symptoms of a disease. But this coup, the 18th since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932, is an unfortunate echo of the past.

That does not mean Thailand has a propensity for coups that it will never shake off. Its development in the past 15 years gives it some protection against a repetition of the past. But it is ThailandтАЩs difficulty in coping with those radical economic and social changes that has given rise to this crisis. And that is an affliction that could affect other countries in the region, torn between their past, in the deep rural areas, and their future, in the cities.

Outside pressure for stability will count for something. There was immediate condemnation from America, the European Union, Australia and New Zealand. The Thai stock market was closed yesterday but the baht currency is liable to slide, the vaguer the commitment to democracy.

Pictures yesterday of the armed forces chiefs heading to the palace may reassure the rural poor by implying that the coup is backed by the Crown. But they are still likely to feel, with justice, that the Prime Minister whom they put in power has been stolen from them.

India demonstrates how sharply a country can swing between parties because of the clash of interests between cities and the hinterland. The Congress party turfed out the BJP nationalist party in the 2004 elections, in an extraordinary upset, because of rural resentment at the BJPтАЩs тАЬIndia ShiningтАЭ slogan, which glorified the citiesтАЩ astounding development.

But India managed that about-turn democratically. The countryтАЩs sympathies may still be divided, but at least there is no question about the GovernmentтАЩs legitimacy. The same surely goes for Thailand. Peace may prove elusive until it returns to democracy.

Old soldiers, old habits
Sep 21st 2006 | BANGKOK
From The Economist print edition

The land of smiles is back to being the land of coups
EPA
THE six-man military junta that seized control of Thailand's government on September 19th appeared before the world's diplomats and press the next day to insist it had no intention of clinging to power. тАЬAfter two weeks, we step out,тАЭ promised Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the army's commander-in-chief, who led the coup. By then they would have chosen a civilian administration to run the country for a year or so. This new cabinet would in turn select a committee to write a new constitution, which would be put to a referendum. An election would follow thereafter.

The juntaтАФwhich has styled itself the Council for Democratic ReformтАФinsists its aim is to rescue Thai democracy from the тАЬrampant corruptionтАЭ in the government of Thaksin Shinawatra, the prime minister it deposed. It was also responding, it said, to Mr Thaksin's meddling in the country's supposedly independent institutions and to the deep division he has sowed among Thais. To their credit, the military men took control without firing a bullet or spilling one drop of blood. However, sitting side-by-side in the imposing auditorium at army headquarters, with the decorations on their smart uniforms gleaming in the television lights, they could not avoid looking like a throwback to Thailand's not-so-distant past, when military chiefs regularly seized power, rarely bringing better government.

Thailand's current constitution, written as recently as 1997, has been scrapped. Five new election commissioners, chosen earlier this month by the Senate, will be replaced. Political gatherings of more than five people have been banned and there will be censorship of local and foreign news media. The coup leaders said they had тАЬinvitedтАЭ Chidchai Vanasathidya, Mr Thaksin's chief deputyтАФwho had been left in charge while the prime minister was attending the General Assembly of the United Nations in New YorkтАФto stay at army headquarters for the time being.

Rumours of an impending coup have been swirling around Bangkok for weeks. But they could easily have been wishful thinking by some of Mr Thaksin's opponents. After all, anti-Thaksin newspapers incorrectly announced his imminent downfall several times during the street protests against him earlier this year. However, this time the conspiracy theorists were right. The rumours rose to a crescendo during Tuesday until eventually, in the late evening, tanks were seen rolling towards Government House.

In New York Mr Thaksin managed to contact one of Thailand's television networks and began a live broadcast, declaring an emergency and relieving General Sonthi of his command. But it was cut short and, shortly thereafter, a retired military officer appeared on all channels to announce the coup.

The coup brings to an end the months of uncertainty that followed the snap election Mr Thaksin had called in April to try to bolster his support. The main opposition parties boycotted that poll and, as a result, it failed to produce a quorate parliament. A tearful Mr Thaksin then announced he was stepping asideтАФtemporarily, as it turned outтАФto restore national unity. Despite this, the political impasse continued, prompting King Bhumibol to tell the country's judges to sort out the тАЬmessтАЭ. The constitutional court swiftly annulled the April election and, later, the criminal court jailed three of the election commissioners who had organised it.

There was little dissent, either from supporters of Mr Thaksin or from his opponents, when the new election commissioners were selected earlier this month. Thailand seemed to be heading towards a reasonably free and fair vote, perhaps as soon as November, in which the opposition parties would readily take part. Mr Thaksin was raising the possibility of declining the prime ministership if, as expected, his Thai Rak Thai party won again. Had he indeed stood aside in favour of a less divisive figure, the country's politics might have been put on the road to recovery. The reputation Thailand had recently acquired, as something of a model for multi-party democracy in South-East Asia, might have been restored.

It was not to be. In recent months General Sonthi had repeatedly rejected all suggestions of resolving the political crisis by undemocratic means. But his mind may have been changed not so much by political events as by military ones. The deciding factor may have been the culmination of months of infighting among cliques in the armed forces.

Class warfare
Mr Thaksin graduated from Class 10 (a sort of fraternity) of the Armed Forces Academies' Preparatory School and went on to become a police colonel, and then a hugely rich businessman, before entering politics. He has continued to foster links with his former Class 10 comrades and, in recent months, has been accused of trying to land them top military jobs. In this he was pitted against the alumni of Class 6, principally General Sonthi and the commanding officers of the navy, air force and national police. All four of these men are members of the junta that has removed Mr Thaksin from office.

It is also widely believed that Mr Thaksin's opponents in the armed forces enjoy the patronage of Prem Tinsulanonda, a retired general and former prime minister who is now the king's chief adviser. In July Mr Prem gave a speech to military cadets telling his audience that soldiers served the king, not politicians. This appeared to be his riposte to Mr Thaksin's grumble, expressed shortly beforehand, that a тАЬcharismatic individualтАЭтАФwidely assumed to mean Mr PremтАФwas undermining his government.

In late August a junior army officer was arrested in a car packed with explosives, near Mr Thaksin's home. Though the police took it as a serious assassination attempt, and made a series of arrests of military men, the prime minister's opponents claimed the whole event had been staged to bolster Mr Thaksin's support and to make his rivals in the army look bad. The next day a group of his supporters visited Mr Prem and asked him to intervene to тАЬspareтАЭ Mr Thaksin's life.

Royal assent?
If the plot to overthrow Mr Thaksin did indeed go as high as Mr Prem, this inevitably raises the question of whether it received at least tacit approval from the king himself. Certainly, the monarch has not come out against the coup: on September 20th a royal proclamation approved General Sonthi as head of the new administration. Thais' deep reverence for their monarch, and the country's strict l├иse-majest├й laws, rule out any open discussion of such delicate matters. But when a foreign reporter put this question to the generals at their press conference, they replied: тАЬWe can assure you that this was solely and entirely our decision.тАЭ

It was not a good one for anyone who looked to Thailand as a newly stable democracy. This week's coup is Thailand's first in 15 years but its 18th since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932. The country has had 15 constitutions since then but many Thai politicians and academics seem convinced that another rewrite will do the trick.

AP

Traditional ThailandWhen the last constitution was written, in 1997, it was widely seen as having struck a successful balance. On the one hand it was expected to give Thailand the stronger executive and stronger political parties that the country needed, with its history of weak and short-lived administrations. On the other it introduced new checks and balances, such as a constitutional court and a powerful anti-corruption body. Yet the 1997 constitution is now blamed for allowing Mr Thaksin to dominate state institutions and abuse prime-ministerial power. Various wish-lists of reformsтАФsuch as easing the restrictions on switching party allegianceтАФhave been drawn up, though it seems unlikely they will achieve the miracles expected of them, even if they are enacted.

At least the current coup-plotters seem a more decent bunch than Suchinda Kraprayoon, the leader of the most recent coup, in 1991, who in 1992 ordered his troops to open fire on protesters demanding a return to democracy, killing scores. General Sonthi has, so far, appeared to be an emollient figure. Mr Thaksin recently, and belatedly, put him in charge of quelling a growing insurgency in Thailand's southern, mainly Muslim provinces, which had been made worse by Mr Thaksin's brutal and incompetent policies. Whereas General Sonthi, who is himself a Muslim, argued that it was necessary to seek out and negotiate with the rebellion's leaders, Mr Thaksin's aides rejected any such idea.

Given General Sonthi's respectability, and the welter of accusations of corruption and abuse of power against Mr Thaksin, many Thais may be ready to give him and his fellow plotters a chance to show the sincerity of their promises. But it is noteworthy that even the Nation, a virulently anti-Thaksin daily, has refrained from cheering the coup that brought down its arch-foe. Thai society, it said, believed the generals had done тАЬthe wrong thing for the right reasonтАЭ. And if they were slow to return power to the people, it would start to look as though Mr Thaksin were a pretext, not the real reason, for their coup.

The millions of Thais who voted Mr Thaksin into office in 2001 and 2005, and who would probably have put him back there again, may be forgiven for wondering why their opinions are being disregarded. They are mostly poorer, rural Thais with little prospect of overcoming the might of the armed forces or the slick arguments of Bangkok's sophisticates, who will be relieved to see the back of Mr Thaksin, aghast though they have been to see tanks on the streets of the capital.

Mr Thaksin had many deep flaws. The gross conflict of interest between his business affairs and his regulatory and lawmaking powers was among the least of them. Far worse were his constant attempts to pack independent institutions with cronies; his brutal тАЬwar on drug dealersтАЭ (which was no less than a licence for extra-judicial killings); and his gross mishandling of the southern insurgency.

But his critics among Bangkok's chattering classes were a little too ready to sniff at his attempts to do something for the broad mass of poorer Thais, in a way that few political leaders before him had ever done. He may have had his eye mainly on the electoral returns of such policies, but his schemes to offer cheap health care and foster economic development in rural villages did genuinely benefit many.

Heart at home, head abroad
The generals insist Mr Thaksin is welcome to return home, and even to stand in the next election. But the various court cases pending against him, and the others that seem bound to follow now that he is out of power, will make him think twice before coming back. No wonder he abandoned his plans to return to Bangkok this week and flew instead to London.

Why on earth did he depart on such a long foreign trip, given the strength of the rumours about coup plots? Could he have been so confident in his powers that he felt he could safely risk it? Or did he realise his end was nigh, and decide it was better to be deposed in his absence, thereby preserving his liberty, and maybe even his life? Perhaps, as so often in Thailand's tumultuous political history, the full story will never be known.

Marty,

Your constant senseless re-posting of material without any indication of why you are posting it, do u agree with it? do u disagree? WHY? why are you posting these to the group? and those ANNOYING BBC articles as well has gotten you to be my first IGNORE. Would you like it if I, as an american, did the same with Fox news articles?

IGNORE

[Brad the Impala]

Thanks Marty for posting these articles from a variety of sources, The Times, Reuters, AP, Economist. Interesting to read these different points of view about the situation in Thailand, without having to trawl the net.

Marty,

Your constant senseless re-posting of material without any indication of why you are posting it, do u agree with it? do u disagree? WHY? why are you posting these to the group? and those ANNOYING BBC articles as well has gotten you to be my first IGNORE. Would you like it if I, as an american, did the same with Fox news articles?

IGNORE

Don't waste your time, NewBee...the silly old queens like marty and teepee think the rest of us don't know how to open bbc.co.uk, and that they're doing us all a big favor by cutting and pasting ad nauseum. I guess it keeps them off the streets...