Omicron - Are we going back to square one?

[Dodger]

24 countries have already reported cases of the Omicron virus including the U.S. and UK. - and it seems like just a matter of time before it reaches Thailand.

The only word I can think of to describe this situation is "devastating".

Always the optimist, I'm trying as hard as I can to see any possibility a positive outcome, but failing to do so. I imagine the CCSA will have no other choice but to mandate another lockdown if cases of this new variant turn up in Thailand.

Read about it here:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisakim/2021/12/01/omicron-discovered-in-24-countries-as-new-variant-spreads/?sh=335ecefe3433

[StevieWonders]

I'm saving this thread. Dodgems' record of predicting how things will turn out especially as the policy of the Thai government goes (think "Phuket Sandbox") has been consistently 100% (or Amazing to put it another way) wrong.

[cdnmatt]

As I've already mentioned, once they've identified and sequenced another strain of the virus, cat's already out of the bag.

Pro-tip: It's already in Thailand, they just haven't tested enough yet.

Good news is, from initial reports, it doesn't make you as sick as Delta. It's just more transmissable, that's all. This is just initial findings from the medical professionals though, and as per-usual, nobody knows what the fuck is going on or what's going to happen in the future.

[arsenal]

The messages are mixed with some saying it's a huge cause for concern while others saying the symptoms are mild and have been circulating for months.

The latter fits in with what the UK has been saying for some time, that by the spring this virus should be treated like a common cold.

Personally I think the biggest problem now is not the virus but the fear of it. If there is an epicentre of over zealous fear it's here in China. It took 40 minutes of scanning to get into the club last night. I know of one university that has kept the students locked in for two months but that's possibly an example of a psycho martinet in charge.

[cdnmatt]

There's definitely a cause for concern. There's no reason this virus can't mutate into something with a ~4% mortality rate.

However, from what I've seen so far, you can just ignore this new variant and carry on as usual. Maybe something new will come out over the coming weeks as the data is being gathered, but right now, it seems to be all hype and no basis.

All I hear on the news is, "we just don't know enough right now". Great, then how about you keep your mouth shut until you do know, instead of scaring entire populations like this?

[Moses]

There's no reason this virus can't mutate into something with a ~4% mortality rate.

There is no reason for any mutation. Because mutations themself are errors of reading from RNA or "writing" at time of virus replication. Probability of mutation to new stamm with mortality rate 80% and to new stamm with zero mortality is the same.

[cdnmatt]

There is no reason for any mutation. Because mutations themself are errors of reading from RNA or "writing" at time of virus replication. Probability of mutation to new stamm with mortality rate 80% and to new stamm with zero mortality is the same.


Thanks Dr. Oz. Hope you win your seat in the US Senate.

[StevieWonders]

Well that didn't take long. I wonder if he consulted Amazing Dodgems first - PM says no lockdown:
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2225575

[Nirish guy]

24 countries have already reported cases of the Omicron virus including the U.S. and UK. - and it seems like just a matter of time before it reaches Thailand. ......The only word I can think of to describe this situation is "devastating"


Well now.... I just hope that someone's not being an "overly paranoid person freaking out over this bullshit" ( hmmm why does that phrase sound vaguely familiar!? :)

If so all I can suggest is that you just have a damn good laugh about chaos that's ensuing around the world because of it al as apparently "laughing is good for the soul." - so someone said once about it all I believe ! lol

[Dodger]

Well now.... I just hope that someone's not being an "overly paranoid person freaking out over this bullshit" (

To be brutally honest, I'm not concerned about this variant in the least. It's people's reaction to it that I'm concerned with.

The Thai PM is proudly announcing that this variant will not cause Thailand to lockdown or stop its plans to reopen - but if (when) micron reaches Thailand all bets are off, and everybody knows it. That's what's concerning.

[dinagam]

Isn't it too apparent that this is a conspiracy of the 'white' supreme rulers of the first world contemptible attempts to make a 'pariah' state of South Africa and the whole of the African continent, because, for whatever reasons they have been able to stave off the deleterious effects of the pandemic that are mostly seen in the developed countries...?

[Manforallseasons]

Isn't it too apparent that this is a conspiracy of the 'white' supreme rulers of the first world conspiracy attempts to make a 'pariah' state of South Africa and the whole of the African continent, because of whatever reasons they have been able to stave off the deleterious effects of the pandemic mostly seen in the developed countries...?

No.

[dinagam]

You're too quick to reply.

[Nirish guy]

You're too quick to reply.

Or maybe it was such a simply answered question with such a clear and obvious answer no delay was necessary.

[arsenal]

Number 10 says it will not be issuing guidance on kissing. Quite right too. My kissing has always been of the very highest calibre. The boys of Thailand have told me this many times so it must be true.

Seriously though. This has the feeling of a few 'experts' trying to make more out of this than it warrants.

[dinagam]

...

[goji]

Is that another attempt to turn this into a fake news outlet ?

The vaccine trial results published last year had a double blind trial with a vaccine group and a placebo group. The difference in severe outcomes was clear.

[StevieWonders]

Isn't it too apparent that this is a conspiracy of the 'white' supreme rulers of the first world contemptible attempts to make a 'pariah' state of South Africa and the whole of the African continent, because, for whatever reasons they have been able to stave off the deleterious effects of the pandemic that are mostly seen in the developed countries...?
Of course us old, pale, male and stale people run the world. After all we make up 99% of the sexpats and sex tourists who keep the Thai economy afloat year after year after year. Long may it continue.

[sglad]

The Thai PM is proudly announcing that this variant will not cause Thailand to lockdown or stop its plans to reopen - but if (when) micron reaches Thailand all bets are off, and everybody knows it. That's what's concerning.

No, "everybody" doesn't know it. And neither do you.

[Patanawet]

. Quite right too. My kissing has always been of the very highest calibre. The boys of Thailand have told me this many times so it must be true.

Is this after they call you 'handsome man' or they say "Ooooooh you are so big"? :D:))

[Dodger]

Is this after they call you 'handsome man' or they say "Ooooooh you are so big"? :D:))

I took a drunk ladyboy back to my room once and she started slurring the words..."oooooh, you are so big", before I even had a chance to pull my pants down. It must have been that third bottle of 100 Pipers...LOL

[Nirish guy]

.."oooooh, you are so big", before I even had a chance to pull my pants down. .LOL

You're assuming of course that she was referring to your appendage there and not perhaps just passing comment on your waist size perhaps ? ! :-)

[siscu58]

You're assuming of course that she was referring to your appendage there and not perhaps just passing comment on your waist size perhaps ? ! :-)

Or the size of your wallet?

[Dodger]

The PM says no cases of Omicron in Thailand yet - and New Years celebrations are a go.

These results, plus the removal of the alcohol ban in certain districts (including Pattaya), is definitely good news for the restaurants and bar businesses. The Blue Zones were extended yesterday to include 3 more distrcits, including Chiang Mai and Hua Hin, where restaurants (and bars posing as restaurants) can begin serving alcohol.

Great news...now if they can keep the train on the tracks.

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/pm-reports-no-omicron-variant-in-thailand-yet-new-years-a-go

[StevieWonders]

For the Chicken Littles of this world - IT’S HERE:

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2021/12/06/thailand-detects-first-case-of-omicron-variant-healthmin-says/

An American traveller via Spain

[StevieWonders]

Remember that vaccine that was the one Amazing Dodgems once claimed was the only one he’d let near his body - Johnson & Johnson? Yep, that’s the one this American tourist had :devilsh:

[Dodger]

It was just a matter of time.

The first case of Omicron has been detected in Thailand. The infected person was apparently an American traveling from Spain.

Hopefully, we won't see any over reaction to this.

https://www.prachachat.net/general/news-815602

[Patanawet]

You're assuming of course that she was referring to your appendage there and not perhaps just passing comment on your waist size perhaps ? ! :-)

Or hopefully, wallet.

[Manforallseasons]

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2227511/thailand-detects-first-omicron-covid-case

[Dodger]

After the recent influx of Omicron cases the Health Minister is freaking out.

With around 68 cases on the books (all but one being contained) he's now running around in hysterics holding a lantern screaming "Omicron is Coming - Omicron is Coming"....and calling for the immediate reinstatement of "Quarantine" versus "Test & Go" for inbound tourists.

I'm sure the PM and his Generals are delighted at the Health Ministers reaction (over-reaction) to this which has already hit the press.

I'll be surprised if the PM and the CCSA react the way the Health Minister is apparently demanding they do, but this has been the year for surprises - so who the hell knows.

[Dodger]

The Thaiger video below pretty much summarizes where things stand right now.

The shit hit the fan after the Health Ministers emotional episode. Meeting with CCSA set for Friday to work out a compromise. Nobody wants to go back to quarantine (except the Health Minister). I wonder if he was even invited to the meeting?

RUMOR
Hints of keeping Test & Go - but adding some additional requirements.
List of approved countries may be shortened. (oops, that doesn't sound good)

https://thethaiger.com/news/national/is-thailand-going-back-into-quarantine-gmt

[arsenal]

Try being here. Wanna go into the pharmacy to buy something...scan your wechat then fill in a form with your name, phone number, passport number and some other stuff I couldn't understand.

[Nirish guy]

And to think not two weeks ago Dodger you told me...... "I just remind myself to laugh out loud every time I hear an overly paranoid person freaking out over this bullshit. Laughing is good for the soul."


A blind man surely seen this coming, I just hope anyone who did go ahead and book flights and hotels can get a full refund in good time if they now decide they cant travel - or at the least had their forms in early so can maybe still wing it and get up while they still can - if they want to, remembering as I said a the start that getting HOME again ( if necessary for work etc) IS just a big a consideration as getting away these days.

[StevieWonders]

And to think not two weeks ago Dodger you told me...... "I just remind myself to laugh out loud every time I hear an overly paranoid person freaking out over this bullshit. Laughing is good for the soul."


A blind man surely seen this coming, I just hope anyone who did go ahead and book flights and hotels can get a full refund in good time if they now decide they cant travel - or at the least had their forms in early so can maybe still wing it and get up while they still can - if they want to, remembering as I said a the start that getting HOME again ( if necessary for work etc) IS just a big a consideration as getting away these days. It's why he continues to deserve the "Amazing Dodgems" moniker

[gerefan2]

I just hope anyone who did go ahead and book flights and hotels can get a full refund in good time if they now decide they cant travel -

Thailand doesn’t do refunds EVER.

I had to delay a 1 night test and go in November and when I went to rebook it this month the hotel no longer does them.

So I asked for a refund....fat chance. They insist I use it as a regular room.
That’s useless to me.

So I will probably book a room at the most inconvenient time, turn up then leave it empty ...

I say again never ever expect refunds inThailand. And avoid paying them when possible.

[Nirish guy]

I would tend to agree with you ( no I ABSOLUTELY agree with you) but surprising I'd booked a flight with Thail lion Air which they cancelled and i thought "oh here we go" - I rang for the refund - "yes we'll send you it, it might take a while" - months passed, I called again, same story, I called once more, same story....I figured well thats that and mentally wrote it off.

However much to my surprise about 6 months after the event low and behold I did finally receive the refund to my account totally unprompted ! I still can't quite believe it !

I should add however that I'm so fucking stupid that each time I'd called them ( and been put on hold for 10 minutes each time etc) I'd inadvertently been in "work mode" so had been using my mobile all day and so automatically did the same when calling them ( calling direct to Thailand !!) So yes I got my £120 refund - all closely followed by my £100 mobile phone bill ! lol

Still I so enjoyed spending that £20 I made back from it all ! :-)

But I'm guessing Im one of the few to EVER get a refund from any Thai business perhaps !?

[Dodger]

The PM just suspended the Test & Go Program.

Here we go!

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2021/12/21/prayut-orders-immediate-suspension-of-test-go-registration/

[DoubleDutch]

A blind man surely seen this coming, I just hope anyone who did go ahead and book flights and hotels can get a full refund in good time if they now decide they cant travel



You are smart and can see into future, I'm not that smart, in my naivete I filled Thailand Pass, and against all odds made it.

It is easy to be extra careful, but then it would be safer to never leave a house, a blind man can see that a brick can fall on your head any moment.

Some like to travel take mild risks, and usually things work out.

I took a chance, and I'm in Thailand until spring. Had I been that blind man, I'd be sitting in snow in Europe, at moment Tallinn temperature -9C.

[Nirish guy]

took a chance, and I'm in Thailand until spring. Had I been that blind man, I'd be sitting in snow in Europe, at moment Tallinn temperature -9C.

Nope, as I think I said if I'd the luxury of sitting in Thailand and not having to think or worry about getting back for work or whatever then I too for sure would also have happily filled in the forms and "winged it" to try and get there.

My point never was that one shouldn't, but only that one should be aware of the unfolding situation before randomly booking a christmas trip / flight as many of usually did around that time.

Delighted for you that you're there and enjoying the sun - I assure you if i had that easy long term option open to me then I too would also happily be sitting on the beach next to you too ! Enjoy !

[Manforallseasons]

I’m not terribly bothered by the temporary hold on new Thailand passes but I hope for those already here that no new restrictions are put in place. Those of us living here should see if they can speed up their third jab.

[goji]

1. The announcement seems to be stopping new applications for test and go only.

2. Any further domestic restrictions would seem premature before Omicron gets going. By the time it does take hold, there ought to be better data from other countries on severity. Countries like the UK and Denmark have kindly volunteered to test the virus.

3 I gather those who had 2 doses of Astra Zeneca can get boosters at 3 months now, according to some very sensible policy. No check for proof of residency either, but take up from bar boys is mixed.

[Manforallseasons]

News video: https://youtu.be/ydoc6UHtbyA


https://youtu.be/ydoc6UHtbyA

[Manforallseasons]

Pattaya update: https://youtu.be/XpY0esqZroE


https://youtu.be/XpY0esqZroE

[Dodger]

According to Pattaya's Mayor there are no lockdowns, wide-scale business closures or beach closures in the plans going forward:

https://thepattayanews.com/2022/01/04/pattaya-mayor-says-no-plans-for-lockdowns-widespread-business-or-beach-closures-as-city-deals-with-rising-covid-19-cases/

[Ruthrieston]

Just a total alcohol ban, coming soon, near you.......

[Dodger]

Coronavirus cases in Pattaya are exploding, with more than 700 reported in just the past three days.

With all these rapid antigen tests becoming in-vogue, why am I not surprised.

Test more = more positive cases of Omicron .
Test less = fewer positive cases of Omicron.

Solution = Stop testing - Open all businesses - Enjoy life. If you get sick for a week - deal with it.

https://www.pattayamail.com/latestnews/news/business-leader-fears-lockdown-as-covid-19-cases-explode-in-pattaya-385245

[Manforallseasons]

Coronavirus cases in Pattaya are exploding, with more than 700 reported in just the past three days.

With all these rapid antigen tests becoming in-vogue, why am I not surprised.

Test more = more positive cases of Omicron .
Test less = fewer positive cases of Omicron.

Solution = Stop testing - Open all businesses - Enjoy life. If you get sick for a week - deal with it.

https://www.pattayamail.com/latestnews/news/business-leader-fears-lockdown-as-covid-19-cases-explode-in-pattaya-385245


So what’s good for the goose is good for the gander?

Re: Rapid Antigen Tests Required for Restaurants in Chonburi
To each his own.

The approach that Jai and I are taking is very simple; We're avoiding going to restaurants, or anywhere else for that fact, where a lot of people are gathering until this wave of Omicron has passed. If by chance either of us starts to feel ill we will take test(s) ourselves at home. If either of us were to test positive we would immediately self-quarantine to keep others safe. We wouldn't report this to anyone.

End of story.

[StevieWonders]

So what’s good for the goose is good for the gander? He's busy documenting the ISO-9000-compliant process

[goji]

Coronavirus cases in Pattaya are exploding, with more than 700 reported in just the past three days.

With all these rapid antigen tests becoming in-vogue, why am I not surprised.

Test more = more positive cases of Omicron .
Test less = fewer positive cases of Omicron.

Solution = Stop testing - Open all businesses - Enjoy life. If you get sick for a week - deal with it.


The number of test results gathered must be heavily influenced by the incentives and disincentives to take a test. If there is any perception of excessive penalties for failing, people will avoid tests.
This may be offset by compulsion to test for workers in certain sectors. Or perhaps a minority of customers who are actually prepared to test.
So after we adjust for people dodging tests, I would imagine the actual number of cases is far higher.

I also note the article referred to over 20% of cases being linked to bars.
So that means that almost 80% of cases are linked to establishments other than bars ? Some analysis of the other 80% would be useful.
Also, if I understand, bars and other establishments selling alcohol are just about the only major customer service business required to test customers, but they still only account for just over 20% of infections ?
Maybe the prohibition supporters in the guvernor's office need to rethink their position.

[Dodger]

So what’s good for the goose is good for the gander?

Every goose and gander out there has to decide for themselves what they need to do to stay safe, and at the same time continue enjoying life.

My opinion is that Omicron is so contagious that everyone will get it at some point. It's so mild (as compared to covid) that a person probably won't even know if it's a common cold, flu bug, or Omicron, that they have. Many have it now and don't even know it, while others are just waiting in queue,

Going to bars, restaurants, or any other public venue during this process is a personal decision left up to each goose and gander out there. One would hope that those in a high risk category would avoid these public venues all together until this thing blows over.

It's also my opinion that forcing people to take these rapid tests will do nothing more than create a ton of worthless data...only valuable to those who want to use these data to push their own personal political agendas.

Goji cited a perfect example: The data they're stockpiling from these tests shows that 80% of the people who test positive (they think) did not catch the virus in a bar or restaurant, although, they're attempting to use the very same data to close bars and restaurants that sell alcohol. They're not focusing on containing Omicron, because they already know it can't be contained. They're taking advantage of the situation (leveraging) to push another agenda. That's just the way I see it.

[arsenal]

"They're not focusing on containing Omicron, because they already know it can't be contained."

Someone should tell the Chinese government.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-people-turned-away-from-hospital-and-forced-to-barter-for-food-in-chinas-latest-lockdowns-12509576

[Blueskytoday]

Today china posted 175 new cases of Covid....damn...A billion plus population and ONLY 175 cases...One would not believe anything coming out of this country...HOPE they don't begin going to Thailand anytime soon....

[Dodger]

What the latest Science says about how and when the Omicron surge will end.

Interesting article which pretty much sums up the fact that Omicron symptoms are far less severe than Delta, coupled with the fact that many people are vaccinated now, and herd immunity is being accomplished. People still have to use common sense when visiting public venues - but are these mandatory mass rapid tests that businesses are now required to perform really paying dividends?

https://www.aol.com/news/latest-science-says-omicron-surge-100033400.html

[goji]

The article mentions immunity, but not herd immunity. Whilst individuals will be resistant to severe disease, proper herd immunity will not happen when people have low immunity to mild or asymptomatic infection.
Also, regarding the ending of the Omicron wave, well I think a lot depends on how long particular governments want to string it out for.
The Junta in Thailand seem intent on imposing further restrictions, despite the far lower severity and widespread availability of vaccines. If the restrictions have any effect, they will also prolong this wave.
Meanwhile, in England, the government is trying to proceed with hardly any restrictions. Which seems to be correct for an era with widespread resistance to COVID and a much less severe variant. The wave will be over far more quickly.

The Junta don't seem to be very good at timing. They crippled the tourist industry for months with restrictions, even though Thailand had the same delta variant as elsewhere.
Then they opened Test and Go in November. They kept that running for just long enough to rapidly import the Omicron variant, which also started in November. Then once all the horses had bolted, they slammed the stable door shut.
So Test and Go is suspended, but I have no idea why, as Omicron is already spreading in Thailand. More enlightened and accountable governments are already abandoning Omicron entry restrictions.

[dinagam]

Au contraire...
Président Macron is completely riled up by the Omicron variant making him want to pee on his unvaccinated fellow citizens,evidently a clear case of paranoia.

[arsenal]

I'm with Macron on this. I do find it funny (peculiar) that OmniCromwell prevents fun and fornication but doesnt stop 200000 Russian troops massing near Ukraine or going into Kazakhstan for 'peacekeeping'.

[dinagam]

Perhaps the Russians have in store a superior vaccine than those produced by the manufacturers affected by the mass formation psychosis currently manifesting in the general population of the advanced northern countries.

[Keith]

Today china posted 175 new cases of Covid....damn...A billion plus population and ONLY 175 cases...One would not believe anything coming out of this country...HOPE they don't begin going to Thailand anytime soon....

A friend of mine, with business in China, told me that reports from his colleagues there say that the situation is much worse than official reports. The words 'out of control' were used. This will never be officially reported.

[Kenny]

Interesting infographic based on early studies of omicron.12088

[Dodger]

A friend of mine, with business in China, told me that reports from his colleagues there say that the situation is much worse than official reports. The words 'out of control' were used. This will never be officially reported.

Better them than us. And by "us" I mean the rest of the planet.

I feel much better knowing that the Chinese are not allowed to leave their country under the governments "Zero Covid" program. It would have been even better if they did this 2 years ago.

Asa Butterfield...if you're reading this, I hope you can find a way to escape.

[Manforallseasons]

A friend of mine, with business in China, told me that reports from his colleagues there say that the situation is much worse than official reports. The words 'out of control' were used. This will never be officially reported.

Yes, China has indeed given the world a gift that keeps on giving.

[arsenal]

I can leave anytime Dodger but I can't come back.

MFAS wrote.
"Yes, China has indeed given the world a gift that keeps on giving."

Spring Festival is nearly upon us when hundreds of millions of Chinese travel all over the country. Those travelling tend to be those who live in crowded accommodation such as students and migrant workers. Let's see what happens.

[a447]

Let's see what happens.

What could possibly go wrong?

[Dodger]

What could possibly go wrong?

Thanks...you just made me spill a cup of hot coffee on my lap...just too funny!

[Dodger]

I can leave anytime Dodger but I can't come back.

The solution is staring you right in the face.

How do you say "Goodbye and Good Riddance" in Chinese?

[arsenal]

I don't know but it almost certainly involves hacking and spitting. *

* If it's to a beautiful Chinese boy then it includes a long hug and generous fondling of his lovely bottom. Obviously.


Dodger. I would also point out that I am in fact very content, I might even say happy in life whereas few of the Thailand based members give the same impression. Yourself being the rare exception..

[Dodger]

Dodger. I would also point out that I am in fact very content, I might even say happy in life whereas few of the Thailand based members give the same impression. Yourself being the rare exception..

I didn't mean to insinuate you weren't happy living in China at all. You sound happy and content and that's all that matters.

Actually the vast majority of expats I know over here are still happy with life in Thailand in general, but seem to complain a lot which I guess is understandable. The reason you don't hear me complaining a lot - is probably because I don't have anything to complain about.

I've been saying as long as I can remember that home is what you make it.