So, when WILL tourism return to normal?

[Old git]

Correct me if my impressions seem off-track - I find Thai politics less than exciting, so don't scrutinise events on a day by day basis.

My impressions, as of this moment, are that:

a) The current government does not seem to be in any hurry to get tourist numbers back to the heady 100k per day levels. There is scant acknowledgement of tourism's critical importance to the Thai economy.

b) Those of below average income are far more severely affected by the lack of tourism than the government will acknowledge.

c) The current demonstrations, whilst motivated by a cocktail of grievances, are fuelled by the lack of tourism.

d) That Thailand is no stranger to mass protests, and that Thai governments do not always concede to them.

e) That the spectre of a second lost tourist high season is likely to further inflame the protests.

So, what will prevail? Is the upcoming tourist season a lost cause, or will the desperation of those who need tourism to feed themselves, force the hands of those in power?

[Manforallseasons]

Is the upcoming tourist season a lost cause, or will the desperation of those who need tourism to feed themselves, force the hands of those in power?

This one is easy, yes the upcoming tourist season is a lost cause and no the powers that be will not be phased by those most adversely affected.

[goji]

There is no point at all in trying to start a tourism recovery when there are lockdowns at the peak of a covid outbreak.

They can START on the path to recovery when a high percentage of the population have vaccines, which ought to be towards the end of the year.
A full recovery in volume tourism may take years & it's not all in the Thai government's hands either, since if China imposes 2 week quarantine and a pile of paperwork on returning citizens, that stops their people going on holidays. Which is fine by me. I believe other countries have more or less stopped travel.
I reckon any board members that really want to take a long holiday in Thailand will probably see an option later in the year.
That's with the possible exception of members living in countries run like a penal colony, such as North Korea, Australia etc (I'm presuming it's a temporary state of affairs in the latter).

As for the protests, well it might just take more than protesting to dislodge these clowns. Just look at how certain European countries achieved freedom.
I don't think the government cares at all about the disadvantaged. All their economic support seems to be in supporting the favoured construction industry, rather the the sectors that need support the most.

[Old git]

They can START on the path to recovery when a high percentage of the population have vaccines, which ought to be towards the end of the year.

That would be a fine agenda if it wasn't economically important and there was clear evidence from other nations that delivering the vaccines resolves the problem.

But the people need the money, and the vaccines, whilst good at protecting the vulnerable from bad outcomes, are not delivering a quick fix.

Think about the rural families of Issan, running up debts with loan sharks until a dutiful daughter trots off to lie on her back in Pattaya, to pay it all back - are they going to get deeper in debt? With no-one making repayments, do the loan sharks have the funds to lend for that matter?

The prospect of another season lost seems potentially explosive..

[christianpfc]

There are several internal and external factors:

Does your home country allow you to leave for a vacation?
How are you treated upon return to your home country?
How are flight connections? I skipped this year's summer holiday in Germany for various reasons, one is horrible flights (twice as expensive and twice as long and twice as many changes of airplane than before Covid).

Entry requirements for Thailand. COE is a strong deterrent for me. I'm happy to deposit 2000 USD to enter Cambodia, but paying for Covid tests in advance to the hotel I'm going to stay at, and submitting the receipt from hotel to apply for COE, is too much! (Requirement for Phuket Sandbox.)

How is the situation in Thailand? I'm heavily reliant on public transport, hotels and restaurants being open. In the long run, gogo bars open would be nice. A Thailand with closed bars, no dine-in in restaurant, curfew, travel limitation is not attractive to me.

Travel elsewhere in SEAsia. It will be years, if at all, than you can just go from one country to another for fun or for visa run.

[Old git]

With Delta at the top of the Covid food chain and most countries now having Delta widespread, the only major nations likely to carry on causing issues into the high season for their own folk coming and going are Oz and NZ. Obviously things could change if the Covid saga throws out a new twist.

Thailand however, is going to get nowhere with tourism until it abandons all ideas of quarantining visitors..

[goji]

Entry requirements for Thailand. COE is a strong deterrent for me. I'm happy to deposit 2000 USD to enter Cambodia, but paying for Covid tests in advance to the hotel I'm going to stay at, and submitting the receipt from hotel to apply for COE, is too much! (Requirement for Phuket Sandbox.)

Back in December, I got my COE with confirmation of booking from my ASQ hotel, which needed only a 15,000 baht deposit. They actually stated in the case of an enforced cancellation, I could be refunded everything except the 2.5% forex fee (so I wrote that on the bottom of the credit card authorization form).

If I'd needed to pay the full 50,000 baht on a non-refundable basis, it would be much less attractive.

I haven't checked the sandbox in detail (yet), but if I were going to Phuket, I'd be looking for a hotel with fair payment and cancellation terms. Even if I had to e-mail over 50 of them.

[arsenal]

Reading NIrish's post on his trip to Edinburgh tells you how this will most likely play out.
Get you're population vaccinated.
They will then party so weekenders from Bangkok will travel down and the bars/restaurants will open.
Welcome vaccinated tourists from overseas.
Accept you'll get a few cases and a few deaths. Like with almost everything else in life.

This doesn't include the wussie pussy Chinese who are inherently skittish.

[Dodger]

My dart throw:

International Tourism will never return to "Normal" - not here...not anywhere...not in our lifetimes.

Domestic tourism will continue to grow in leaps-and-bounds everywhere - except possibly Afganistan (tongue in cheek).

Many business owners and expats residing in Thailand seem to agree, that tourism will be opening up when the majority of the population gets vaccinated and the Delta Variant is under control - which could hopefully be sometime in the middle of next year. This estimate is based on the sluggish acquisition of the vaccine(s), data trends related to the delta variant, and political factors.

God willing and the creek don't rise, we should start seeing fewer lockdown restrictions and more planes landing at Suvarnabhumi next year.

Sandbox Schemes will continue to be promoted (with or without quarantine) where you would be traveling at your own risk.

Just for the record (Brad, you're gonna love this): I've always been very negative about these Sandbox Schemes, but if I was marooned back in the States and unable to return to Thailand (my home, my boy, my swimming pool), I would signup for a Sandtrap in a heartbeat (with or without quarantine) as long as I could get back home (Bang Saray) after the quarantine was over. I would pay a Visa Agent when I arrived back home to extend my visa (if needed) and be done with it. I've never used an Agent before - but in this case I would if I had to.

[Old git]

I note from a media report 12 days ago, that Delta has now been found in 75 out of the 77 provinces in Thailand.

Begs the question: What is the quarantining of tourists now supposed to achieve?

[christianpfc]

Indeed, you could argue that the tourists are kept in Phuket to protect them from Covid in the rest of Thailand!

A friend recently said that the Delta variant is a good thing. And assuming that Covid will reach everywhere and nobody (except nuclear sumbarine, space station, polar research station, ...) can escape, he is right! Delta will speed up the process of achieving herd immunity, and once that is achieved, we can finally go back to normal (whatever the new normal is).


Back in December, I got my COE with confirmation of booking from my ASQ hotel, ...
I haven't checked the sandbox in detail (yet), but if I were going to Phuket, I'd be looking for a hotel with fair payment and cancellation terms. Even if I had to e-mail over 50 of them.
If there were no other way to get to SEAsia, I would do it (either ASQ in Bangkok or sandbox in Phuket), but now, having settled quite nicely in Cambodia (better than expected), and the situation in Thailand worse than expected, I can wait.

There is nothing to gain for Thailand by keeping the borders closed and quarantining/sandboxing tourists; on the contrary, infection rates in Thailand are higher than among tourists (my assumption, probably could find statistical proof). When they realize this and open the border for all and sundry, I will be over the next day!

The main problem is slow and inefficient government, be it democracy or military dictatorship. I wonder how long it will take to remove all barriers to international travel introduced to combat Covid, once Covid is over.

[Old git]

There is nothing to gain for Thailand by keeping the borders closed and quarantining/sandboxing tourists; on the contrary, infection rates in Thailand are higher than among tourists (my assumption, probably could find statistical proof). When they realize this and open the border for all and sundry, I will be over the next day!

The main problem is slow and inefficient government, be it democracy or military dictatorship. I wonder how long it will take to remove all barriers to international travel introduced to combat Covid, once Covid is over.

Countries tend to take a 'follow my leader' approach to Covid, and look at what other countries are doing before acting. Add to that, the influence of Covid profiteering on government decision making.

Delta now accounts for about 80% of infections, globally, and there are no new variants challenging its dominance. It cannot be long before a number of enlightened governments start ending travel restrictions and testing on the grounds that there is no longer anything new to fear, after which the dominoes will start to fall.

Thailand would not be Thailand if some of the money paid to the ASQ regime did not end up in the back pockets of those in power, so I don't expect the government to be in the vanguard of cancelling quarantine requirements, but once the inevitability of that little earner ending sinks in, the need for a big distraction to get the protests to calm down might provoke a sudden about turn - we shall see..

[Old git]

A little aside.. - despite widespread doomster predictions of further varaints of Covid, all the WHO 'varaints of concern' and 'variants of interest' had their origins last year. Nothing new of significance has appeared since last December.

The argument for continuing travel control and quarantine measures against some unseen variant bogeyman is wearing very thin now..

[Dodger]

.

Nothing new of significance has appeared since last December.

Let's just hope it stays that way...Delta is bad enough.

[Old git]

Let's just hope it stays that way...Delta is bad enough.

It could be a blessing in disguise. If Delta, through it's much greater transmissability, displaces all other variants, including any nascent variants of Delta itself, the human immune system will only need to become optimised for one form of the bug, which could in turn drive itself into an evolutionary dead end.

[francois]

It could be a blessing in disguise. If Delta, through it's much greater transmissability, displaces all other variants, including any nascent variants of Delta itself, the human immune system will only need to become optimised for one form of the bug, which could in turn drive itself into an evolutionary dead end.

Sounds good but more like wishful thinking. I believe there will be other variants to contend with, much like the flu variants that change from year to year.

[latintopxxx]

unfortunately beacuse a large percentage cant or refuse to be immunised new starins will evolve....pity that the acts of the selfish impact the rest of us

[Old git]

Sounds good but more like wishful thinking. I believe there will be other variants to contend with, much like the flu variants that change from year to year.

Flu bugs and corona type bugs are very different. Flu bugs mix and match, and also suffer senility (the 1919 bug grew old and died quite suddenly) - corona type bugs are more enduring, but less versatile - we'll see..

[Old git]

unfortunately beacuse a large percentage cant or refuse to be immunised new starins will evolve....pity that the acts of the selfish impact the rest of us

With respect, I think you'e buying into a Pfizer shareholder narrative there - the notion that Covid vaccination protects others now looks holed below the waterline.

The vaccinations help protect the individual from bad outcomes, but there is precious little evidence that they prevent infection or spread..

[Dodger]

.

- corona type bugs are more enduring, but less versatile - we'll see..

Sounds like my first boyfriend. I prefer the versatile types.

[Dodger]

With respect, I think you're buying into a Pfizer shareholder narrative there - the notion that Covid vaccination protects others now looks holed below the waterline.

The vaccinations help protect the individual from bad outcomes, but there is precious little evidence that they prevent infection or spread..

I can't say that I've seen any Pfizer narratives suggesting that the vaccine protects other (unvaccinated) people from catching the virus. Conversely, their reports typically highlight the fact that even people who have had the vaccine can in fact catch the virus again. They can also remain A symptomatic (where they suffer no side effects whatsoever), where the possibility of them passing the virus on the someone else is a real threat.

This is true with all vaccines, and common knowledge among epidemiologists and the pharma industry (and WHO) right now.

I could be wrong, but I think this is why they want everyone to get vaccinated.

[jimnbkk]

Aek of Connections Bar in BKK has posted a sad video of how Bangkok is looking now: https://youtu.be/tur-DFmwHyY.


https://youtu.be/tur-DFmwHyY

[Nirish guy]

Shocking Video.

For those who didn't watch it below is a screen grab of the video looking down Soi 2 in Silom ( the DJ Station Soi) where basically there's just nothing there anymore ! I know the bars are still there and it could all be returned to normal quite fast I'm sure, but still, very sad to see and the rest of the video makes for sad viewing too :-(

11408

[dab69]

And here I was just thinking of stopping sending money to a friend of a friend in Pattaya...
Time for him to move back in with his mother rent free.



My friends birthday today.

[Oliver2]

Someone post a happy video....please.

[Armando]

Aek of Connections Bar in BKK has posted a sad video of how Bangkok is looking now: https://youtu.be/tur-DFmwHyY.
Please remember that Bangkok is now in lockdown and very few premises are able to stay open even in the daytime. Add to that the nighttime curfew starts at 9:00pm and it's hardly surprising that shops and bars are shut and there are so few people around, sadly.

[Dodger]

Someone post a happy video....please.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7dPqrmDWxs



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7dPqrmDWxs

[goji]

The vaccinations help protect the individual from bad outcomes, but there is precious little evidence that they prevent infection or spread..

The covid vaccines don't prevent anything. However they dramatically improve your odds.

Deaths and severe illness are reduced by over 90%
Your chances of having symptomatic covid are reduced by over 50%, quite a lot more than 50% in some cases
Measuring the reduction of transmission to other people is more difficult, so there is less data. Even if people volunteer, they won't do experiments on us like they could with colonies of rats.

The vaccines are so effective that those of us who are vaccinated are likely to die of something else other than covid.

Tourism might not have returned to normal, but I think the odds of us being able to visit Thailand during the winter, with reasonable terms are improving by the day.

Here's the reason why:
https://www.pattayamail.com/thailandnews/over-28-1-million-people-in-thailand-have-received-vaccines-369142

[Old git]

Tourism might not have returned to normal, but I think the odds of us being able to visit Thailand during the winter, with reasonable terms are improving by the day.


- I am hopeful that there will be a bit of a backlash against the Covid profiteers, not initially in Thailand, but against the huge scam of demanding the testing of travellers that most countries are now signed up to, despite Delta now accounting for 80% of global cases, and with no new notable variants for eight months.

- I am hoping that as western politicians return from their own holidays in the next few days, they will be muttering to each other about the pointless nature of them now - and the money they've had to fork out personally.

- I am also hoping that once a backlash kicks off against the profiteers, an international ball will start rolling that the Thai government will feel obliged to yield to.

[Manforallseasons]

- I am hopeful that there will be a bit of a backlash against the Covid profiteers, not initially in Thailand, but against the huge scam of demanding the testing of travellers that most countries are now signed up to, despite Delta now accounting for 80% of global cases, and with no new notable variants for eight months.

I am hoping that as western politicians return from their own holidays in the next few days, they will be muttering to each other about the pointless nature of them now - and the money they've had to fork out personally.

- I am also hoping that once a backlash kicks off against the profiteers, an international ball will start rolling that the Thai government will feel obliged to yield to.

The fees for mandatory Covid testing are irrelevant to the overall economic catastrophe Covid has inflicted. In it’s haste to reopen what is left standing in the Thai economy ie. restaurants, hotels, entertainment venue etc. I am in favor of testing all tourists as well as showing proof of inoculation against Covid. As a tourist you can see from those posted videos the devastation which is even greater here in Pattaya. Regardless of the number of vaccines there will not be enough to make safe for travel this winter for,the tourists and more important for the general populous.
I hope at least reopening with restrictions can occur spring of 2022 but be aware that many businesses have not and will not reopen.

[Blueskytoday]

Tourism back to somewhat normal without quarantine, in Bangkok.....NEXT SUMMER

[Old git]

The Covid testing fees need to be seen as a catalyst, an iniquitous and needless imposition, rather than as an absolute cost.

Vaccination is not ending this pandemic, and the narrative that once everyone is vaccinated, everything will be OK, is a false dream. Vaccination makes the more vulnerable far safer from bad outcomes, but that's about the limit of it. Hardly anyone is getting Covid more than once, so the end game will occur when everyone has had a brush with the real McCoy. Many people can't afford to wait long for that now - they need to get it over with.

[latintopxxx]

wrong...if everyone...or at least 90% were fully vaccinated then it would be like the flu...99,5% of deaths attributed to covid are the unvaccinated...

[Old git]

wrong...if everyone...or at least 90% were fully vaccinated then it would be like the flu...99,5% of deaths attributed to covid are the unvaccinated...

Where on earth did you get that number from ?

In the UK at the moment, 2/3 of Covid related deaths are amongst the unvaccinated, but a third had been jabbed.

Vaccination is clearly a mitigating measure, but not a solution.

[goji]

Where on earth did you get that number from ?

In the UK at the moment, 2/3 of Covid related deaths are amongst the unvaccinated, but a third had been jabbed.

Vaccination is clearly a mitigating measure, but not a solution.

I agree the numbers are slightly out, but that's not the main point.

It seems the vaccines reduce the death rate by over 90%. Add in some improved treatment and we're already getting to a level where the death rate is comparable to a bad flu outbreak.
We all carry on as normal if flu is around, so covid vaccines will allow us to carry on as normal with covid. Which is exactly what's happening in the UK at present.
Anything which gets the death rate down to something comparable with other infections that we already live with is a solution.

[Dodger]

Vaccination is clearly a mitigating measure, but not a solution.

You're right, but it appears to be the best game in town.

If you have a better solution I'm sure the WHO and every nation on earth would appreciate hearing about it.

[Old git]

You're right, but it appears to be the best game in town.

If you have a better solution I'm sure the WHO and every nation on earth would appreciate hearing about it.

The best solution seems to be to get everyone in mortal danger jabbed, to mitigate that danger, and having done so, stop running way from the bug so people can get their lives back. With a relatively young demographic - only about one Thai in eight is over 65 - getting those at risk jabbed is not a very big ask.

In the case of the LoS, there are literally millions who are suffering substantive harm from the lack of tourists - harm that for most of them greatly outweighs the risks from Covid.

[Dodger]

With a relatively young demographic - only about one Thai in eight is over 65 - getting those at risk jabbed is not a very big ask.

Thailand is currently ranked the third most rapidly ageing population in the world. The number of people aged 60 and over in Thailand now stands at about 13 million, accounting for 20% of the population.

To make matters worse, the majority of Thais are opposed to taking the Sinovac vaccine which is being force-fed to them.

[Old git]

Thailand is currently ranked the third most rapidly ageing population in the world. The number of people aged 60 and over in Thailand now stands at about 13 million, accounting for 20% of the population.

To make matters worse, the majority of Thais are opposed to taking the Sinovac vaccine which is being force-fed to them.

Thailand's baby boomers are now in their fifties and early sixties, but as a percentage, there are still twice as many over 80's in the UK than in Thailand

[gerefan2]

Thailand's baby boomers are now in their fifties and early sixties, but as a percentage, there are still twice as many over 80's in the UK than in Thailand

Maybe that accounts for the very low death rate in Thailand?

Number of cases in UK 6.6 m. Number of deaths 132,000

Number of cases in LoS 1.1 m. Number of deaths 10,300

Approx 50% of the death rate of the UK...and with less vaccination.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Old git]

Maybe that accounts for the very low death rate in Thailand?

Number of cases in UK 6.6 m. Number of deaths 132,000

Number of cases in LoS 1.1 m. Number of deaths 10,300

Approx 50% of the death rate of the UK...and with less vaccination.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The UK counts deaths from Covid as deaths for any reason within 28 days of a positive Covid test - test positive and get run over by a bus a few days later, and you get counted as a Covid death.

I don't know the exact methodology used in Thailand, but many countries count a Covid death as one where Covid is a primary cause of death, as given on the death certificate.

[billyhouston]

If you wish to look at the realtionship between recorded covid-19 deaths and excess deaths this is very useful:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

[goji]

If you wish to look at the realtionship between recorded covid-19 deaths and excess deaths this is very useful:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Thank you.
For much of this pandemic, loony left publications such as the Guardian liked to proclaim Britain is the worst country in Europe for covid deaths.
If we look at excess deaths per capita, the UK is not even in the top 20 European countries. As has been suggested, counting anyone who dies within 28 days of a positive test is likely to result in over counting.
One could fail a covid test, then be run over by a bus whilst running a marathon 3 weeks later & still be a covid death.

Russia and Serbia are among the countries with a very high ratio of excess deaths to declared covid deaths. Very odd.

[arsenal]

Gerefan2 wrote
"Maybe that accounts for the very low death rate in Thailand?

Number of cases in UK 6.6 m. Number of deaths 132,000

Number of cases in LoS 1.1 m. Number of deaths 10,300

Approx 50% of the death rate of the UK...and with less vaccination."

Thailand has the Delta variant which.is so much less murderous than the earlier ones. Here in China's recent outbreak. 565 province wide cases of which 450 were vaccinated and zero deaths.

[francois]

Thailand has the Delta variant which.is so much less murderous than the earlier ones. Here in China's recent outbreak. 565 province wide cases of which 450 were vaccinated and zero deaths.

I am aware that the Delta variant is more contagious than earlier variants but have seen no information that suggests it is less murderous. If anything, it seems it is more deadly.

[Dodger]

Thailand's baby boomers are now in their fifties and early sixties, but as a percentage, there are still twice as many over 80's in the UK than in Thailand

Good point.

What I'd like to see is a boom in the number of grandbaby boomers between the ages of 18-25. Preferably slim males with twinky smiles and a little bounce in their step.

[Manforallseasons]

Good point.

What I'd like to see is a boom in the number of grandbaby boomers between the ages of 18-25. Preferably slim males with twinky smiles and a little bounce in their step.

The Brits refer to “a little bounce in their step” as mincing.

[Old git]

Good point.

What I'd like to see is a boom in the number of grandbaby boomers between the ages of 18-25. Preferably slim males with twinky smiles and a little bounce in their step.

We can all dream.. I rather look forward to entertaining the 'next generation' - lads who were not not yet 18 when the lockdowns started, so fresh and unsullied..