The “new normal” (post COVID Thailand)

[StevieWonders]

Post Delta, there will be another variant
We already know, from Israel, that one of our current vaccines (Pfizer) is less effective against catching the Delta variant, although the vaccination generally results in fewer symptoms and fewer deaths
The Chinese vaccines are barely worth having (maybe 50% effective)
Travel will be restricted to the vaccinated and (probably) testing before and after departure from the home country will be mandatory, adding to the costs of travel
Costs of travel and the likelihood of a Phuket Sandbox-style entry persisting will inhibit short-time (14/21-day) holidays
A poorly-vaccinated population will increase the risk of tourists catching a (asymptomatic) COVID variant, which may in turn add to their costs when they return to their home country (if the home country also requires a test)
Poorly-vaccinated Chinese tourists will add to the risk of a further spread of one or more variants
Bar numbers will decline, as the changing tourist demographic and numbers will mean fewer customers and so fewer bars
The number of ex-pats retiring to Thailand will decline because of (1) a realisation of what might might happen "next time", and (2) fewer bars
The "2019 normal" isn't coming back

[cdnmatt]

There already is a new, more transmissible and deadly variant. That nightmare scenario India previously went through spawned another mutation, so instead of just the Delta variant, we now have what's being dubbed "Delta Plus"!

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/how-dangerous-is-the-new-delta-plus-variant--heres-what-we-know

[StevieWonders]

There already is a new, more transmissible and deadly variant. That nightmare scenario India previously went through spawned another mutation, so instead of just the Delta variant, we now have what's being dubbed "Delta Plus"!

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/how-dangerous-is-the-new-delta-plus-variant--heres-what-we-knowYour mastery of the knee jerk reaction is a marvel to behold. Didn’t you already post on this previously?

[cdnmatt]

Your mastery of the knee jerk reaction is a marvel to behold. Didn’t you already post on this previously?

I gave myself a much needed long weekend and was drinking a good portion of the time, so I have no idea, haha.

[Dboy]

Post Delta, there will be another variant
The "2019 normal" isn't coming back


Agree with all of that list. I will add that anybody who invests in real estate outside their home country will now HAVE to consider the permanent increased risk that one may not EVER be able to physically access any property owned outside your home country. To me, that a huge deal.

Even worse, there are no trustworthy statistics that demonstrate that these lockdowns have been worth the massive economic damage. The social damage inflicted by the global liberal technical/medical establishment has also be tragic, if not criminal (increased suicide, gun violence, divorce, drug use, etc).

The Pattaya business community still seems somewhat optimistic about the future, which surprises me. Even if Thailand has a real reopening (meaning no PCR tests or quarantines), I'm skeptical that the tourist numbers will return to previous levels. And the tourists who do return may be Chinese; meaning large group tours who stay in group hotels and eat at group restaurants.

So the scene we used to enjoy may be gone for good. Perhaps we'll have a smaller scene, geared to the expat community rather than the 1 month high season tourist? That could lead to difference styles of bars being invented (just groping for something positive to say).