Thai Baht Can’t Escape Covid

[Manforallseasons]

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40002757

[snotface]

Just before the new year I transferred a chunk of money from the UK to Thailand on the assumption that the pound would weaken against the baht because of Brexit becoming official. Instead the pound has moved from 40B to 44B since then because of the Covid situation. That's why I don't play the stock market. Even in a two-horse race (up or down) I have a near-infallible knack of picking the wrong horse.

[StevieWonders]

Just before the new year I transferred a chunk of money from the UK to Thailand on the assumption that the pound would weaken against the baht because of Brexit becoming official. Instead the pound has moved from 40B to 44B since then because of the Covid situation. That's why I don't play the stock market. Even in a two-horse race (up or down) I have a near-infallible knack of picking the wrong horse.So you believed all the Remain propaganda, almost none of which has come to pass.

[Dodger]

I'm surprised the Thai Baht hasn't weakened more than it has (to the left of the decimal point - not the right).

2021: No vaccine = covid cases skyrocket = consumer confidence plummets = Thai baht continues to weaken.

I knew there was a silver lining in this mess somewhere.

Now, all I have to do is not get too close to anybody when I go to the bank.

[Brad the Impala]

So you believed all the Remain propaganda, almost none of which has come to pass.

Au contraire, almost all of which has come to pass, unlike the trade deals that were promised to replace those with the EU. But that's a conversation for another time and thread. The £ was worth 50 Baht before the Brexit vote.

[StevieWonders]

Au contraire, almost all of which has come to pass … Remembering that my preference is for entertainment over believability (https://sawatdeenetwork.com/v4/showthread.php?22224-Discussion-of-blindness&p=280267#post280267), I refer you to this article, selected at random from a Google Search (actually a DuckDuckGo Search) "Remainer predictions about Brexit that didn't happen"
https://economiccollapsenews.com/2020/02/04/wheres-the-apocalypse-failed-brexit-doomsday-predictions-prove-the-globalists-are-wrong/

[goji]

Just before the new year I transferred a chunk of money from the UK to Thailand on the assumption that the pound would weaken against the baht because of Brexit becoming official. Instead the pound has moved from 40B to 44B since then because of the Covid situation. That's why I don't play the stock market. Even in a two-horse race (up or down) I have a near-infallible knack of picking the wrong horse.

Markets usually price in known events, such as Brexit. The big movement was with the surprise referendum result, which was not knowable in advance. Completing the process was knowable.

I distinguish between stock markets and currency trading. Stock markets give ownership in companies which usually make profits that can either be used to fund growth or pay dividends. On average, we can expect some of that profit to return to the shareholder.

Currencies are much more difficult. The only underlying return is a negligible interest rate.

[Nirish guy]

Au contraire, almost all of which has come to pass.....

And don't even start me on the Northern Ireland protocol and how it's already ripping the UK apart legally - not to mention threats of me not getting my usual weekly sausages in Marksies too anymore - the cheek of them !

[Jellybean]

And don't even start me on the Northern Ireland protocol and how it's already ripping the UK apart legally - not to mention threats of me not getting my usual weekly sausages in Marksies too anymore - the cheek of them !

With regard to the sausage problem NIrish-guy, not to worry, Boris Johnson has assured us that “the wurst is behind us.” ;)


https://youtu.be/iYb_BnrCNdE

And, talking of the Thai Baht exchange rate, I remember a time when it was around 75-70 Baht to the GBP. :(

[Nirish guy]

No no, tis only a mere three month temporary pause in the sausage battle it seems, all merely put in place to stop Ulster men burning buses and generally being of a riotous disposition during the "marching season" once they discovered they could no longer get their sausages with their english sausages with their full Irish breakfasts ( oh the irony :-) !

So alas I fear sausage gate is a battle that may run and run once discussions start up again in 3 months time and we may be in for the long(ganiza) run ! :-)

PS if the EU think Ulster people get a tad het up over things like religion and politics a bit to easily, well, just you start fucking with our irish breakfasts and THEN you'll see just how crazy we can REALLY get ! It's basically one step behind behind banning Guinness - Never Never and NO SURRENDER I say !!! :-) lol

Oh and as for Boris assuring us of ANYTHING - we're LONG past believing ANYTHING that man says as he's sell his granny down the river in a heartbeat if it suited his moment by moment agenda !

[Dodger]

According to Bloomberg, Commerzbank AG sees baht dropping to 32 against the dollar primarily due to the drop in tourism.

Well, it's already dropped to 32 and hard to imagine it not dropping farther unless they get the people (all people) in Thailand vaccinated.

It wasn't that long ago that Thailand had the best performing currency in Asia. Not it's hit rock bottom. Maybe this is what it takes to get the elite off their asses. Then again, maybe not.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-30/tourism-wipeout-makes-baht-asia-s-worst-emerging-market-currency

[Brad the Impala]

According to Bloomberg, Commerzbank AG sees baht dropping to 32 against the dollar primarily due to the drop in tourism.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-30/tourism-wipeout-makes-baht-asia-s-worst-emerging-market-currency

This article was written in March. Probably some more current analysis available.

[StevieWonders]

This article was written in March. Probably some more current analysis available.
Amazing Dodgems - always behind the times.

[StevieWonders]

This article was written in March. Probably some more current analysis available.
Undoubtedly one of the “invaluable” posts that only Bookburner members make, according to goji :devilsh:

[Dodger]

This article was written in March. Probably some more current analysis available.

Lots of more current expert analysis out there...all saying the same thing. I just have a preference for Bloomberg.

[goji]

I consider future currency movements to mostly be a known unknown. ie I know that I don't know.

Assuming currencies X and Y have similar interest rates, if the market consensus is that currency X should weaken over the next year, then actually currency X is likely to have already incorporated that expectation and weakened.

Of course, some others might be better at this and are able to outsmart the professional currency traders by reading the financial press, or otherwise exercising good judgement. For example, George Soros & no doubt a few board members.

[Blueskytoday]

Today exchange rate is USD $1 equal 32 Baht..sounds good to me..

[Manforallseasons]

Baht continues to sicken over Covid: https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40003322

[goji]

Baht continues to sicken over Covid: https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40003322

They report a move of 32.66==>32.69, which is all of 0.09%.

Must be a quiet news day. Or perhaps their algorithms show this is the type of click bait that brings in the punters.

[Manforallseasons]

….

[Dodger]

Keep going baby...

With the PM that's in charge of the government right now it can weaken to at least 40.

U.S. dollar projected to continue strengthening as well...perfect!

[Manforallseasons]

Keep going baby...

With the PM that's in charge of the government right now it can weaken to at least 40.

U.S. dollar projected to continue strengthening as well...perfect!

https://wise.com/gb/currency-converter/usd-to-thb-rate