When Will Thailand Open Again

[Dodger]

I normally don't pay much heed to articles published in Thai newspapers lately, and the one linked below published by PattayaOne is no exception, although I do find the assumptions drawn in this article to be realistic considering what we know today.

https://pattayaone.news/when-will-thailand-open-again/

[cdnmatt]

In my opinion, they shouldn't even be talking about re-opening at all right now until that daily case count is about 5% of what it currently is. They can hope and plan all they want, but as we've seen many times throughout the world over the past 18 months, it only takes a few weeks for this virus to bring a nation to its knees.

Plus add in the fact evolution is doing its thing, hence each variant that takes hold is naturally worse than the last. They will re-open once the Thai population is adequately vaccinated with something that works. Until that happens, my guess is they may try to re-open prematurely, but stand a good chance of having to close shortly after due to uncontrollable outbreak.

[StevieWonders]

In my opinion, they shouldn't even be talking about re-opening at all right now until that daily case count is about 5% of what it currently is. They can hope and plan all they want, but as we've seen many times throughout the world over the past 18 months, it only takes a few weeks for this virus to bring a nation to its knees.

Plus add in the fact evolution is doing its thing, hence each variant that takes hold is naturally worse than the last. They will re-open once the Thai population is adequately vaccinated with something that works. Until that happens, my guess is they may try to re-open prematurely, but stand a good chance of having to close shortly after due to uncontrollable outbreak.Can you expand on the risk to Thailand of fully-vaccinated tourists, especially as the Sandbox model mandates a PCR test before departure from their home country and another 5 days after arriving in Thailand?

[Armando]

They will re-open once the Thai population is adequately vaccinated with something that works. Until that happens, my guess is they may try to re-open prematurely, but stand a good chance of having to close shortly after due to uncontrollable outbreak.
Once lauded worldwide for having controlled the virus for most of last year, the government has really fucked itself with its actions this year. It agreed to the Songkran holiday against the advice of the medical experts. Its agents allowed a spoiled mega-rich brat from the meg-rich Central Department store family to bring the virus back from his casino trip to Cambodia by waiving his 14 day quarantine. After a week or more enjoying himself at the hi-so discos on Ekamai many hundreds had been infected and these passed the virus on to their families, loved ones, other contacts and then to the rest of Bangkok.

Now the country itself is fucked. It's not going to open when it says it will. The tourist business desperately needs to open up but I don't believe ordinary Thai folk will allow it to happen. There will be a huge outcry. It's in a Catch 22 situation resulting from its own utter stupidity and incompetence.

[Uranus]

Its agents allowed a spoiled mega-rich brat from the meg-rich Central Department store family to bring the virus back from his casino trip to Cambodia by waiving his 14 day quarantine. After a week or more enjoying himself at the hi-so discos on Ekamai many hundreds had been infected and these passed the virus on to their families, loved ones, other contacts and then to the rest of Bangkok.

Not surprised.

[cdnmatt]

Can you expand on the risk to Thailand of fully-vaccinated tourists, especially as the Sandbox model mandates a PCR test before departure from their home country and another 5 days after arriving in Thailand?

Because it's a little difficult to enforce social distancing, lockdowns, business closures, et al... when you have a million tourists wandering around with pockets full of money.

[StevieWonders]

Because it's a little difficult to enforce social distancing, lockdowns, business closures, et al... when you have a million tourists wandering around with pockets full of money.A million tourists? A MILLION tourists? You’ve been drinking the TAT Kool Aid!

[pong]

There seems a glimmer of hope now, according to what i just read in another (nongay) forum:
Phuket was first but now also that big brothel by the sea, named patters or Pattaya wants to open to vaccinated tourists in Q4 this year-but only if at least 70% of its locals have also been vaccinated. taken that probably over half of its eager citizens are not registered there-Thai style neglect and too much hassle to do that, and that most likely as always the many farang there do not count, this seems an easy to reach threshold. Hurrah! Prepare for the freeforall and hedonistic festival that seems usual after any major upheaval in society.

[StevieWonders]

There seems a glimmer of hope now, according to what i just read in another (nongay) forum:
Phuket was first but now also that big brothel by the sea, named patters or Pattaya wants to open to vaccinated tourists in Q4 this year-but only if at least 70% of its locals have also been vaccinated. taken that probably over half of its eager citizens are not registered there-Thai style neglect and too much hassle to do that, and that most likely as always the many farang there do not count, this seems an easy to reach threshold. Hurrah! Prepare for the freeforall and hedonistic festival that seems usual after any major upheaval in society.
Old story, pong. The original (and still current) “Sandbox” timeline is
1 Proof of Concept - Phuket (July)
2 Other major tourist destinations - Pattaya, Chiang Mai, Hua Hin and a couple of others (October)
3 Generally (January 2022)

Koh Samui has also announced its intention to participate in Phase 1. Each province that has announced their plans has suggested differences. Chiang Mai won’t be in that city but somewhere else in the province, and participants can only undertake structured activities. Phuket is vaguer.

I don’t believe sex tourists will be encouraged/allowed to “mingle” with locals during the first 7 days. Even though fully vaccinated each person including unvaccinated children must have a PCR test before departure and on the 5th full day of their trip. It doesn’t sound that enticing - certainly not the million tourists of the TAT’s fantasy (shared by Matt) - and even if it is they won’t all be here at the same time.

[gumblebee]

Details of the sandbox scheme are missing, but some hotels are already selling rooms. Search for "Phuket Sandbox Packages". Room prices seem reasonable.

We'll need to hurry up tough, I don't see how it can last. Despite vaccination, I'm convinced it's inevitable that some tourists (after 7 days) or Phuketians (no restrictions at all, only 70% vaccinated) will turn out to be infectious after leaving the island.

I don't believe the whole scheme is workable without some form of quarantine for everybody leaving the island (including locals).

The ASQ hotels in Bangkok and Pattaya won't be happy if full-on quarantine still lasts 14 days

[StevieWonders]

We'll need to hurry up tough, I don't see how it can last. Despite vaccination, I'm convinced it's inevitable that some tourists (after 7 days) or Phuketians (no restrictions at all, only 70% vaccinated) will turn out to be infectious after leaving the island.Would you care to quantify in percentage terms how many fully-vaccinated tourists will leave Phuket infected, given that they must have a PCR test before departure for Thailand and another 5 days after arriving in Phuket?

[Dodger]

Details of the sandbox scheme are missing, but some hotels are already selling rooms. Search for "Phuket Sandbox Packages". Room prices seem reasonable.

The room prices may appear reasonable for a Phuket holiday, but the chances of Phuket opening up to tourists quarantine-free on July 1st is a long shot at best.

Covid cases in Thailand are going UP not DOWN, and the vaccine(s) that the government keeps touting are still on a slow boat from China.

Planning a holiday in Phuket five weeks from now, in the midst of a surge in new covid cases across the Kingdom, is almost laughable.

Better to wait until July to see what actually happens.

[Manforallseasons]

As an expat living in Thailand I don’t see much change till 2022. The large groups of low end Chinese tourists are now frowned upon, wealthy Chinese will travel to Europe etc. Western tourists who haven’t been to Thailand in a while may no longer have the same desire once realizing the devastation Covid has caused to almost everything including entertainment venues. I believe it will be years before the country returns to anything close to normal and that normal will look very different.

https://www.pattayamail.com/latestnews/news/the-chinese-wont-be-returning-to-pattaya-any-time-soon-356456

[Dodger]

THE FUTURE

The good news the way I see it (always the optimist), is that eventually Thailand has no choice but to get 70% of its population vaccinated. They have to do this to obtain herd immunity and contain the spread of the virus, and have no choice in the matter. This has to be done. If they don't, the economy would be in total ruins (it's getting close now) and too many wealthy people (including a huge inventory of Generals and others we can't talk about) would stand to take a huge financial loss. That said, It's not a matter of "if, but a matter of "when".

WHY THAILAND MISSED THE BALL

It's become common knowledge that the delay in getting the vaccine(s) to Thailand was caused by Thailand's desire to produce its own vaccine from its own lab, versus securing contracts with vaccine manufacturers offshore as aggressively as they should have. That's what fucked up the timeline, and that's the reason why only 1% of the population have received the vaccine to date. That's also the reason why the government was unable to support a mass vaccination on May1st as promised.

The delay of almost 11 months caused by the Thai lab (Siambioscience) not meeting AstraZenica's contractual requirement's pertaining to quality and reliability is what put Thailand behind the eight-ball from the beginning. It took the lab approximately 9 months to make whatever improvements were necessary to their manufacturing and quality processes to gain approval from AstraZenica UK, and another 3 months to prepare for, and pass an audit performed by an international third-party Registrar, who had to perform an in-depth assessment of the lab before registering (approving) them. Following all this work, the Thai lab had to submit vaccine samples to both, AstraZenica UK, and the Thai FDA for approval. The clock kept turning. Now that everything is done and the green light has finally been given to the Thai lab, we're nearly a year late on the production/distribution plan.

WHAT NEXT

With no time left to wait for mass production from the Thai lab, the government now has to rely on a hybrid approach using vaccines produced in other countries to complement the volumes that can be produced in Thailand which sent them right back to the drawing board again. From what we've seen in the newspapers (as sketchy and unreliable as they are), the Thai FDA has approved 5 or 6 other vaccines (depending on which newspaper you're reading), which include Modern, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson, from the U.S., Sinovac and Sinopharm from China, and I believe Sputnik for Russia as well.

Knowing that the Thai economy will remain in a somewhat frozen state until 70% of the population is vaccinated, one could assume that these other vaccines will start hitting the shores sometime in the next 6 months and distributed according to priorities which are changing with the wind.

To a point that MFAS made, tourists aren't going to be charging back, quarantine or no quarantine, until Thailand has something to offer, and that's going to take some time.

Of course everything written above is simply my read on things. Could be wrong. Could be right. Who the hell knows. I'm hoping we can get 70% immunization over here by years-end, and start reopening to tourists early next year...God willing and the creek don't rise.

[StevieWonders]

Hmmm. Is Dodgems’ post verging on LM by omission?

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/thai-monarchy-steps-in-to-speed-up-lethargic-vaccine-drive-20210528-p57w01.html

[Armando]

THE FUTURE]
It's become common knowledge that the delay in getting the vaccine(s) to Thailand was caused by Thailand's desire to produce its own vaccine from its own lab, versus securing contracts with vaccine manufacturers offshore as aggressively as they should have. That's what fucked up the timeline, and that's the reason why only 1% of the population have received the vaccine to date. That's also the reason why the government was unable to support a mass vaccination on May1st as promised.

The delay of almost 11 months caused by the Thai lab (Siambioscience) not meeting AstraZenica's contractual requirement's pertaining to quality and reliability is what put Thailand behind the eight-ball from the beginning. It took the lab approximately 9 months to make whatever improvements were necessary to their manufacturing and quality processes to gain approval from AstraZenica UK, and another 3 months to prepare for, and pass an audit performed by an international third-party Registrar, who had to perform an in-depth assessment of the lab before registering (approving) them. Following all this work, the Thai lab had to submit vaccine samples to both, AstraZenica UK, and the Thai FDA for approval. The clock kept turning. Now that everything is done and the green light has finally been given to the Thai lab, we're nearly a year late on the production/distribution plan.
The obvious question being asked by the media and all over social media is why the above named company with zero experience in developing vaccines was chosen by the government to be Astra Zeneca’s partner rather than the Government Pharmaceutical Organisation which has had a lot of experience with the WHO and others in producing vaccines. The assumption is that it would have developed the local version far more quickly. But who are we to say?

[Dodger]

HOT OFF THE PRESS

According to an article published today by The Thai Examiner, the Thai Monarchy appears posed to help support the acquisition of addition vaccines which could be good news.

Read article below:

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2021/05/28/royal-princess-steps-into-vaccination-drive/

[Dodger]

.

But who are we to say?

We are those who aren't allowed to say.

[cdnmatt]

Maybe Canada is just being overly cautious, but this whole Phuket thing seems reckless to me.

Canada has over 60+ population vaccinated, and with the good stuff... it's all Modurna or Pfizer, will a little AZ thrown in for some spice. We're just now verly slowly starting to open up... indoor dining is allowed again but with various social distancing in place, outdoor sports are allowed but no spectators or indoor sports, intra-province travel between regions is still restricted, gyms are allowed to partially reopen, et al.

And that's over 60% vaccinated with the good stuff. So for Thailand to just fling the doors wide open in 5 weeks time seems quite odd to me. Maybe it will work, but I doubt, especially considering how transmissible the new variants seem to be. Even parts of Australia are back under lockdown now, and Vietnam is battling an outbreak now too.