Thailand Covid At Record High!

[Manforallseasons]

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2098343/record-high-967-new-covid-cases-sunday


The government reported 967 new Covid-19 cases on Sunday, the most ever recorded in a 24-hour period, for an accumulated total of 32,625 since the pandemic began. No new deaths were reported, leaving the toll at 97.

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) said all but three of the cases – imports from Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates and France – were locally transmitted: 530 recorded at hospitals and 434 revealed from mass testing in communities.

Bangkok led new infections in both categories at 236, followed by Chiang Mai (189), Chon Buri (180) and Samut Prakan (48).

[Manforallseasons]

Covid update: https://youtu.be/oHMpCLctPqs


https://youtu.be/oHMpCLctPqs

[Manforallseasons]

Covid takes toll on Thai police:

https://pattayaone.news/new-covid-19-wave-has-infected-113-police-officers-and-1000-in-quarantine/

[gerefan2]

Talk about closing the bars...what next close the Police Stations?!!

[Manforallseasons]

Monday new record case count:

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2098807/thailand-adds-985-covid-cases-monday-new-record


The government reported 985 new Covid-19 cases on Monday, a new daily record since the pandemic began, bringing the accumulated total to 33,610.

All but five of the new infections were transmitted inside Thailand.

No additional deaths were reported, leaving the toll at 97.

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) said Chiang Mai led new cases with 246 transmissions, followed by Bangkok (137) and Chon Buri (92). The Chiang Mai figures included a big jump reported by the province on Sunday afternoon.

[latintopxxx]

...have to wonder what went wrong...situation seemed to be totally uinder control for almost a year...was kinda hoping some clever scientist would discover that spicy food and hot humid weather was the best thing at keeping covid at bay...

[Dodger]

...have to wonder what went wrong...situation seemed to be totally uinder control for almost a year...was kinda hoping some clever scientist would discover that spicy food and hot humid weather was the best thing at keeping covid at bay...

I'm with you.

Along with spicy food and the hot weather, I was hoping they'd find some residual benefits in Sperm.

[siscu58]

Talk about closing the bars...what next close the Police Stations?!!

No, no, don't be mistaken. The policers got infected when visiting bars in the tough process of collecting money.

[Manforallseasons]

Today new daily high: https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2099703/new-high-for-daily-virus-infections


The government reported 1,335 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, the highest number of daily infections since the epidemic emerged in Thailand early last year.

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration said that of the 1,335 new infections, only nine were among arrivals from overseas. This brings the total number of confirmed cases to 35,910. The death toll remains unchanged at 97.

Wednesday's figures were the highest since Covid-19 disease was first reported in Thailand.

Bangkok had the most new cases at 351, followed by Chiang Mai (319) and Prachuap Khiri Khan (161).

[gerefan2]

Ok MFAS, you've convinced me...outta here!

[latintopxxx]

u leaving Thailand??? for where??? unless u decamopiung down under then its a bit like hopping from the frying pan into the fire...

[arsenal]

Do try and follow the plot latin. gerefan2 left Britain at the height of its disease, death and fucking awful winter and decamped in Thailand where it was warm and pleasant. Now, as things are getting nasty there but easing up in UK he's heading home. Played a blinder son, man of the match.

[Manforallseasons]

Another lockdown imminent:

[Smiles]

My home is in Prachuap Kiri Khan Province (i.e. Hua Hin) and, up to now, has been quite benign for the last 12 month.
Apparently a few hundred (perhaps a thousand) of Hi-So Bangkok naughty boys and girls along with their Porches and Ferraris and their non-masks: "We don't give a shit, assholes" was flung around, and I found out my 4 hours on the beach under the umbrellas was in the middle of them. Turned out viruses came with them.

How long before one feels flu-like-symptoms, especially the dreaded fever where I shoot down many of the little buggers during my half-dozen a day sojourns a day in 7-11?
For now, only bars are shut down.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2099371/hua-hin-pub-gig-leads-to-virus-surge

[cdnmatt]

How long before one feels flu-like-symptoms, especially the dreaded fever

Incubation period can be up to 14 days, but symptoms generally show up a little earlier. Grab yourself a test, they're free in Hua Hin according to that article.

[StevieWonders]

How long before one feels flu-like-symptoms, especially the dreaded fever where I shoot down many of the little buggers during my half-dozen a day sojourns a day in 7-11?
For now, only bars are shut down.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2099371/hua-hin-pub-gig-leads-to-virus-surgeFour hours in the open air? They were at close range? I’d put the risk at 4/5 of 5/8 of bugger all. The only reported cases of outdoor infections are closely confined football stadiums where there’s a lot of singing and shouting. Even latintopxxx’s favourite bogeyman, an outdoors BLM protest, hasn’t had cases reported. And remember the Fart Test - if you can smell your own farts you don’t have COVID (and if you can smell someone else’s they’re not social distancing).

[Dodger]

......I found out my 4 hours on the beach under the umbrellas was in the middle of them. Turned out viruses came with them.

As I'm sure you know, being outdoors and in spaces with good ventilation reduces the risk of exposure. And unless you had close physical contact with any of these idiots you should be OK. If it happened to be a windy that day at the beach, that would be even better.

Unless you start frothing at the mouth, experiencing delirium tremors, or crapping in your pants, don't worry about a thing.

We have the same problem in Bang Saray.

[Manforallseasons]

[QUOTE=Dodger;277144] Unless you start frothing at the mouth, experiencing delirium tremors, or crapping in your pants, don't worry about a thing.

As this would be quite normal for Smiles only a Covid test could confirm!

[StevieWonders]

As I'm sure you know, being outdoors and in spaces with good ventilation reduces the risk of exposure. And unless you had close physical contact with any of these idiots you should be OK. If it happened to be a windy that day at the beach, that would be even better.It must be reassuring for you, Smiles, to get such a ringing endorsement of my prognosis.

[Manforallseasons]

Another record number: https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2100655/covid-caseload-sets-record-again

[Manforallseasons]

Another new record Covid count:

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2101363/death-toll-tops-100-as-thailand-logs-1-767-covid-cases-new-record

[Dodger]

I'm afraid this is going to get really ugly!

The Government "blinked".

[Oliver2]

Did they really think that vaccinations weren't important? So why has mass-vaccination not been a priority? Other states began it months ago. There's enough money for submarines and Rolexes for ministers so it can't be lack of funds. Surely.
Hard it started three months ago, Thailand may well have been ready open its doors soon.

[a447]

The date for opening Thailand just keeps getting pushed further back.

I've given up on a trip this year - it isn't going to happen.

I'm aiming for mid to late 2022.

[goji]

I've given up on a trip this year - it isn't going to happen.
I'm aiming for mid to late 2022.

Considering the Thai side of things, there's 8 whole months between now and the end of the year.
The current wave in Thailand will have plenty of time to go up to whatever peak it reaches, then come down again. If Thailand gets it's act together and manufactures some of that vaccine it licensed, that will also help the downtrend later in the year. I don't expect a barrier from the Thai side.

Of course, home country regulations come into it. When the leaders of Australia, UK etc are currently creating penal colonies by preventing outbound travel, that also needs to be considered. I imagine UK restrictions will be lifted. If not, I'll investigate the loopholes later in the year.

The way forward is to be prepared to book a trip at short notice. I still expect to be in Thailand again this year. Not certain, but well over 50% probability.

[Manforallseasons]

Looking at the above 2 posts from my viewpoint as someone living in Pattaya I think a447’s estimate is more realistic. The government has not been exactly proactive in securing vaccines other than 500 thousand doses of the China vaccine and has given exclusive rights to a Thai Company which has never manufactured a vaccine before to make enough AstraZeneca vaccine for the entire population.
Frankly, for the first time since the virus emerged in Thailand I am nervous, I am also very much aware of the financial devastation that is occurring. The question is not so much when to return but what will be left standing upon your return.

[cdnmatt]

The question is not so much when to return but what will be left standing upon your return.

Probably ten times the number of money boys as usual.

[goji]

Looking at the above 2 posts from my viewpoint as someone living in Pattaya I think a447’s estimate is more realistic. The government has not been exactly proactive in securing vaccines other than 500 thousand doses of the China vaccine and has given exclusive rights to a Thai Company which has never manufactured a vaccine before to make enough AstraZeneca vaccine for the entire population.
Frankly, for the first time since the virus emerged in Thailand I am nervous, I am also very much aware of the financial devastation that is occurring. The question is not so much when to return but what will be left standing upon your return.

We shall see. I heard similar things from expats last year, yet two of us still made it to Thailand.

Looking out of your window in Pattaya gives you a better idea of how Pattaya is today, but to figure out how it will be in 8 months time requires a lot of additional open minded analysis, considering much more information.

You're right to question what will be standing then, but I have a simple answer to that. It's beyond my control and therefore I won't get stressed about it. I have sympathy for the business owners, but they have the stress, not me.

[cdnmatt]

Did they really think that vaccinations weren't important? So why has mass-vaccination not been a priority? Other states began it months ago. There's enough money for submarines and Rolexes for ministers so it can't be lack of funds. Surely.
Hard it started three months ago, Thailand may well have been ready open its doors soon.

Canada with all its wealth can't even procure vaccines, and that's after ordering far more per-capita than any other country, so what chance do you think Thailand has?

[StevieWonders]

Canada with all its wealth can't even procure vaccines, and that's after ordering far more per-capita than any other country, so what chance do you think Thailand has?Unfortunately any satisfactory discussion of vaccine production and competence in Thailand is going to run smack up against the Forum prohibitions on any breach of the all-pervasive and legally-buttressed personality cult.

[StevieWonders]

The date for opening Thailand just keeps getting pushed further back.

I've given up on a trip this year - it isn't going to happen.

I'm aiming for mid to late 2022.
Isn’t your prime minister keeping you all locked up this year even if vaccinated? The stories I’ve read will only allow for “urgent” personal business such as funerals. Fucking boys on foreign shores hardly counts as that.

[Dodger]

The government has not been exactly proactive in securing vaccines other than 500 thousand doses of the China vaccine and has given exclusive rights to a Thai Company which has never manufactured a vaccine before to make enough AstraZeneca vaccine for the entire population.

They would have had better luck working with the Manufacturers and Distributors of "Yaba" - who've been supplying the entire population without any disruptions for decades.

It appears the Generals missed their opportunity!

[latintopxxx]

gotta agree with dodger...similarly in the UK its hould be pubs...and in the US the top 3 fastfood outlets preferably tgose with drive thru...

[goji]

Just for reference:

Thailand has 20.6 new cases per million population per day.
The UK has 37 new cases per million population per day.
India has 211 new cases per million population per day. And has been added onto the UK red list for hotel quarantine on arrival to the UK.
France has 659 new cases per million population per day. Not on UK red list.

Figures taken from world meters & are just a snapshot, with no smoothing.

1 Thailand ought to be a long way from becoming a UK red list country at present. However, case rates are not the main factor. Pakistan was already on the red list, with 24 daily cases per million. The presence of variants and trust in the countries testing and genetic sequencing are factors. I suspect it's the "discovered in India" variant that's mainly responsible for India going on the red list.

2 The Thai daily rate is just over half the UK level. Of course, the UK is on a firm downtrend and the UK cases ought to do a lot less damage from now on, as all the high risk people have been offered at least one dose of the vaccine.

[christianpfc]

The date for opening Thailand just keeps getting pushed further back.
While they had zero local transmissions, keeping Thailand tightly closed to protect their population made sense.

But now the cat is out of the bag (both in Thailand as well as Cambodia where I am now), and if they opened the gates to all and sundry, it wouldn't make much difference virus-wise. A new local case or arrived by plane? What would it matter? But the one arrived by plane would have a wallet full of money to spend!

Compare Brazil last year. Opened to tourism in Aug 2020 and I went in Sep 2020 and had a reasonably good time, I would go again this year!

The questions is just how many would go if Thailand opened her gates? Can people leave their home country for a holiday (currently UK residents cannot), would they have to quarantine upon return, is there any point in going now that most businesses catering to tourist are closed and there might be alcohol sales prohibition, curfew, lockdown soon?

I pondered going from Cambodia to Thailand for Mai/June/July, but currently the situation in Thailand is only little better than in Cambodia, but the barrier to get there is high (no direct flights, COE, quarantine), so I stay here. But if I could enter just like before Covid, I would go in an instant.

Congratulations to our two members who spent the winter in Thailand Covid-free, and to myself for spending three months in Cambodia Covid-fee. Just imagine you went through all the hassle and expense, and two weeks of preparation for the trip and two weeks of quarantine later, there is an outbreak!

[goji]

While they had zero local transmissions, keeping Thailand tightly closed to protect their population made sense.

But now the cat is out of the bag (both in Thailand as well as Cambodia where I am now), and if they opened the gates to all and sundry, it wouldn't make much difference virus-wise. A new local case or arrived by plane? What would it matter? But the one arrived by plane would have a wallet full of money to spend!

Agreed. Now covid is circulating in the community, restrictions on inbound tourists are less important. From a Thai perspective, they only need travel restrictions on countries with nasty virus variants.
However, almost no one would be interested in visiting until lockdown restrictions are relaxed.

I expect things will be dramatically improved by the time I want to visit next winter.
Of course, I've already had one vaccination, so I'm also more open to considering countries with some covid infections.

[dab69]

Just as I was readying for a return. At least latest articles show a decline in infections

[gerefan2]

Just imagine you went through all the hassle and expense, and two weeks of preparation for the trip and two weeks of quarantine later, there is an outbreak!

Actually Christian that is exactly what happened to goji and myself. We did our 2 weeks inside and exactly on release the second wave struck. Everything closed, no alcohol and restaurants closed at 9 pm. That lasted for a month. Had I known I would certainly have delayed my trip.

In the end it didn’t really matter too much as I then had 3 further months without restriction. Unfortunately the latest wave struck about a fortnight before I was due to leave....so I got out quick! No more lockdowns for me thank you!

In summary, as others have said, yes it’s worth the hassle and incarceration for a three month break BUT only if everything is operating normally.

[StevieWonders]

Actually Christian that is exactly what happened to goji and myself. We did our 2 weeks inside and exactly on release the second wave struck. Everything closed, no alcohol and restaurants closed at 9 pm. That lasted for a month. Had I known I would certainly have delayed my trip.

In the end it didn’t really matter too much as I then had 3 further months without restriction. Unfortunately the latest wave struck about a fortnight before I was due to leave....so I got out quick! No more lockdowns for me thank you!

In summary, as others have said, yes it’s worth the hassle and incarceration for a three month break BUT only if everything is operating normally.
When I suggested at the time that fools and their money were soon parted this was a self-satisfied response.

If living well within one's means and having a lot of fun doing it, one would be a fool not to part with the money.

[goji]

Actually Christian that is exactly what happened to goji and myself. We did our 2 weeks inside and exactly on release the second wave struck. Everything closed, no alcohol and restaurants closed at 9 pm. That lasted for a month. Had I known I would certainly have delayed my trip.


The only things I would have changed would be ideally getting out to Thailand earlier and coming home later. I think you got it about right with the return time.
We still had the weather, the beach, coffee shops, all the main shops open after about a week or so, massage shops open (unofficially) and a much more interesting Grindr catalogue than at home. Plus sipping beer out of a mug at the non-gay bars that were open.
Bear in mind almost nothing was open back home & it was winter.

Would I do the same thing right now ? No, because British restrictions are being lifted and summer is imminent, so the stay at home option is less grim than in December.

However, in the unlikely event I have the same restricted options in December 2021, I'd repeat the whole process. Although I really would prefer a shorter quarantine period.

[cdnmatt]

Uh oh, 2070 cases today. That's quite the jump.

Yeah, Phuket isn't opening in July for anyone still hoping... Be happy if you get there Fall of 2022.

[StevieWonders]

Uh oh, 2070 cases today. That's quite the jump.

Yeah, Phuket isn't opening in July for anyone still hoping... Be happy if you get there Fall of 2022.a447 certainly won’t be - the Perth drawbridge goes up more often than a Pattaya money boy goes down - http://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/perth-plunged-into-lockdown-over-mercure-hotel-cluster-20210423-p57lwb.html

[a447]

a447 certainly won’t be - the Perth drawbridge goes up more often than a Pattaya money boy goes down

It's just the third time. Last time was 5 days and this time is 3 days. That's why we have had no community transmission since early last year and life has gone on as normal here during the pandemic. We've all been eating out, going to the movies, attending sporting events, etc. as per usual.

It is why at the state election a month ago the once powerful opposition party only won 2 of the 59 seats in parliament. They foolishly advocated opening up our borders.

I've just come home my staycation at the casino - had to cut my holiday 2 days short. But it doesn't matter as I don't mind staying at home for 3 days.

But if I was staying at the Ambiance in Pattaya or the Tarntawan in Bangkok, I'd be mightily pissed.

[Dodger]

Uh oh, 2070 cases today. That's quite the jump.

Yeah, Phuket isn't opening in July for anyone still hoping... Be happy if you get there Fall of 2022.

Somebody better tell the foreign embassy's, because their websites are still telling people they can travel to Phuket starting July 1st Quarantine-Free.

[goji]

Somebody better tell the foreign embassy's, because their websites are still telling people they can travel to Phuket starting July 1st Quarantine-Free.

In the covid era it is unwise to book that far in advance.

If I were planning to make that trip, I'd keep an eye on things, then do some more detailed research & then think about visa applications in June.

[Dodger]

The FDA just lifted the "Pause" on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Hopefully this vaccine will be making its way to private hospitals in Thailand soon. At least my fingers are crossed.

As far as the Governments Vaccine Plans for the general population are concerned, there is sill nothing concrete...just paper-thin excuses and weasel-words.

[cdnmatt]

As far as the Governments Vaccine Plans for the general population are concerned, there is sill nothing concrete...just paper-thin excuses and weasel-words.

Don't expect any meaningful change to that for at least 6 months.

Unfortunately, Covid vaccines aren't available via Amazon Prime at the moment, so takes a while to get them in.

Laos got 65 cases yesterday, so outbreak has begun there now...

[cdnmatt]

And adding new ICU beds, because Bangkok only has enough for another week:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/thailand-reports-daily-record-over-031457952.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNhLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABojRMCRkdDAVKAPWkR00FLmC72f 0nzrFLF4xufRzjMb2zJ6v01DWJPGnbP0CzDfoG65J0EFJtLjR6 f6jJhvmkKcmx4k0-2tCes_xrw1SJgz1YFRYZ9Gxz8xiGBaiLQtcvkLHlTZagpZkd0j eVQXwHYTrI8HuDOzUFww-kYpcYmo


Thai health authorities are adding more intensive care unit (ICU) beds in Bangkok as health officials warned that the Thai capital only had enough for one more week at the current daily rate of cases.

[Dodger]

And adding new ICU beds, because Bangkok only has enough for another week:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/thailand-reports-daily-record-over-031457952.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNhLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABojRMCRkdDAVKAPWkR00FLmC72f 0nzrFLF4xufRzjMb2zJ6v01DWJPGnbP0CzDfoG65J0EFJtLjR6 f6jJhvmkKcmx4k0-2tCes_xrw1SJgz1YFRYZ9Gxz8xiGBaiLQtcvkLHlTZagpZkd0j eVQXwHYTrI8HuDOzUFww-kYpcYmo\


No Vaccines - no Beds - no Plan.

I can't wait for the movie to come out - starring The Three Stooges!

[cdnmatt]

Just seen, 2,839 cases today.

Man that's rising quick...

[goji]

The FDA just lifted the "Pause" on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
Hopefully this vaccine will be making its way to private hospitals in Thailand soon. At least my fingers are crossed.
Surely you would take any of the "western" vaccines if available ? If not, why the preference for J&J ?

[StevieWonders]

400 fewer today than yesterday (14%) BUT here are some statistics that will gladden goji’s heart:

24 hour road accident report 24/4/2021: 17 Deaths and 1,693 injuries. Deaths include three children and two foreigners.

TOTAL FOR 2021: 5,138 deaths and 333,707 injuries

Why goji in particular? If you revisit his posts from his stay in Thailand you will see a number of posts where he contrasted COVID statistics with road trauma - and attracted considerable opprobrium from some posters.

[StevieWonders]

Another interesting statistic from Thai News Reports - almost one-third (30%) of all reported cases are Burmese, most of whom are likely in the country illegally.

[cdnmatt]

400 fewer today than yesterday (14%)

It's Sunday.

[dinagam]

God rests on Sunday...

[cdnmatt]

God rests on Sunday...

Stats are always lower on Sunday, all countries it seems. Gives the weary a rest from counting the dead bodies, I guess.

[Dodger]

Surely you would take any of the "western" vaccines if available ? If not, why the preference for J&J ?

Any of the western vaccines would work for me.

[Uranus]

Another interesting statistic from Thai News Reports - almost one-third (30%) of all reported cases are Burmese, most of whom are likely in the country illegally.

If still in Thailand, they pose a risk there and not in Myanmar.

[StevieWonders]

Surely you would take any of the "western" vaccines if available ? If not, why the preference for J&J ?Bad press for J&J in the Washington Post. Not quite as bad as the statistics about the number of Russians who distrust Sputnik V but not very encouraging for poor old Dodgems - https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/poll-johnson-johnson-vaccine/2021/04/26/a1085b26-a3ad-11eb-a774-7b47ceb36ee8_story.html

[cdnmatt]

Bad press for J&J in the Washington Post. Not quite as bad as the statistics about the number of Russians who distrust Sputnik V but not very encouraging for poor old Dodgems - https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/poll-johnson-johnson-vaccine/2021/04/26/a1085b26-a3ad-11eb-a774-7b47ceb36ee8_story.html

I think we've all learned over the years that US based opinion polls are rarely based on facts.

And since J&J can be stored in a standard fridge, I would imagine Dodger can expect it to show up in Thailand before Modurna or Pfizer.

[StevieWonders]

I think we've all learned over the years that US based opinion polls are rarely based on facts.Oddly enough opinion polls are polls of opinions not polls of facts.

[gerefan2]

Oddly enough opinion polls are polls of opinions not polls of facts.
How can you have a poll of “facts”?

[StevieWonders]

How can you have a poll of “facts”?Think quantum. However I was simply responding to Matt’s poor communication skills. He’s not the only one - a447 and he are in a race to the bottom and probably for the same underlying reason.

[StevieWonders]

Today’s gross (including overseas’ acquired) figure is 2,012 which is the 3rd day on which raw figures are stabilising around 2,100 rather than growing exponentially as they did a week ago. It’s also the first day recently where the indicator (typically a 7- or 8-day moving average) exceeds the raw figures. Although its ascent is not so steep it hasn’t flattened out but it’s an encouraging sign. Mind you we were in this position a week ago; it’s important to remember that one swallow doesn’t make a boyfriend … er, Spring.

[aot871]

I have just been chatting to a thai friend of mine (I'm not in thailand) and he is of the opinion that the rate of infection is higher than the government is saying, because many people are not keen on getting tested because of having to pay. I asked him about the thai government paying for the test and he said they only pay if any body that you have been in contact with has the virus, other wise u have to self fund.Not sure if this is correct but as I said I'm not in Thailand , so it could be that he has the wrong info.

[goji]

I have just been chatting to a thai friend of mine (I'm not in thailand) and he is of the opinion that the rate of infection is higher than the government is saying, because many people are not keen on getting tested because of having to pay.

1 If that's true, it's one clear incentive not to be tested.

2 Also, the Thai government does like sending people to hospital for covid, whether they need treatment or not. I can't imagine many asymptomatic people would be keen on being incarcerated in one of those field hospitals.
Or worse still, imagine being tested, getting a false positive and getting sent off to share a field hospital with infected people ? No thank you !

Testing at one's own cost only really gets beneficial, if one has symptoms and the hospitals are offering some of the effective treatments.
If testing is needed for the benefit of the community, then the government should pay.

[StevieWonders]

Bad news for all the Chicken Littles out there - yesterday’s total was almost 1,000 less than barely a week ago - 2,839 last Saturday, 1,871 yesterday. That’s less than both the weekly and fortnightly averages of new cases, although neither of those lagging indicators has yet peaked.

One swallow still doesn’t make a boyfriend however.

[cdnmatt]

Where do you get your stats from? They're always right, but more up to date than mine. I have a little scraper that grabs the countries I'm interested in from the worldometer site, but it's always a few hours behind your stats.

[StevieWonders]

Where do you get your stats from? They're always right, but more up to date than mine. I have a little scraper that grabs the countries I'm interested in from the worldometer site, but it's always a few hours behind your stats.I subscribe to a number of Twitter feeds - @ThaiPBSWorld, @ThaiNewsReports, @BangkokPostNews, @KhaosodEnglish. They all report within a few minutes of each other around this time of day. @ThaiNewsReports focuses on COVID news.

I maintain my own spreadsheet on trends and use the Fibonacci numbers as the basis of the averages.

[cdnmatt]

That sounds like a lot of work. I'll stick with my current method of typing "kovid" in the terminal, and out comes a list of new cases and deaths for that day of countries I'm interested in.

[aot871]

The thai government is at fault for allowing people to go home for the new year holiday but of course they .won't admit it so as not to loose face

[StevieWonders]

Another large fall in today’s figures - 1,583 - a fall of almost 300 from the previous day. Both the weekly and fortnightly averages are flattening. The usual caveat applies.

[Sen Yai]

Another large fall in today’s figures - 1,583 - a fall of almost 300 from the previous day. Both the weekly and fortnightly averages are flattening. The usual caveat applies.

Good news.Let's hope the trend continues.

[Kenny]

Bloomberg reporting that all visitors to Thailand will have to undergo 14 days quarantine from May 1st.
That will scupper my plans to return as a vaccinated tourist. I could take the 7 days quarantine but 14 days is too long.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-29/thailand-increases-quarantine-period-for-visitors-as-covid-rages?utm_source=url_link

[StevieWonders]

Bloomberg reporting that all visitors to Thailand will have to undergo 14 days quarantine from May 1st.
That will scupper my plans to return as a vaccinated tourist. I could take the 7 days quarantine but 14 days is too long.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-29/thailand-increases-quarantine-period-for-visitors-as-covid-rages?utm_source=url_linkWhen are you planning to arrive? I’ve seen some suggestions that these latest measures are for 14 days only (statement by Taweesilp reported by Khaosod English about the restaurant lockdown)). The same link reports that the Phuket “Sandbox” plan is still on track for 1 July.

[Kenny]

When are you planning to arrive? I’ve seen some suggestions that these latest measures are for 14 days only (statement by Taweesilp reported by Khaosod English about the restaurant lockdown)). The same link reports that the Phuket “Sandbox” plan is still on track for 1 July.

I was hoping to arrive around the beginning of July and to stay for about 2 months.

I think it will be a case of seeing how things lie in mid-June and planning accordingly.

As an aside, one of the boys from 4T Bar in the Jomtien Complex contacted me on Line the other day.
He reminded me about some of the things we got up to together during my last visit.
Left me with an almost unbearable longing to be back there.

He and his mates should be employed by Thai tourism to bring the gays back to Thailand.

[StevieWonders]

I was hoping to arrive around the beginning of July and to stay for about 2 months.

I think it will be a case of seeing how things lie in mid-June and planning accordingly.
I’d have thought that wise. I’d still be wanting to see what the requirements will be for the 7-day stay on Phuket before making any final decision.

[StevieWonders]

A jump back towards 2,000 in today’s figures (1,891) without a break in the weekly or fortnightly trends. Here’s hoping.

[Dodger]

I think it will be a case of seeing how things lie in mid-June and planning accordingly.

Very wise move.

Unfortunately, this is gonna be another long year.

[cdnmatt]

A jump back towards 2,000 in today’s figures (1,891) without a break in the weekly or fortnightly trends. Here’s hoping.

Laos seems to be stabilizing and going down as well. Only 64 today, which is nice to see. Was a couple days of over 100.

[StevieWonders]

Today’s figures are up by 49 over yesterday to 1,940 - still (just) below the weekly and fortnightly averages. However there is good news - the Pope is beginning another round of prayers. You’ll recall the triumphant success of his prayers to end the pandemic more than 13 months ago. Encouraged by his success then, more prayers are ascending heavenward.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2109099

[arsenal]

"However there is good news - the Pope is beginning another round of prayers. You’ll recall the triumphant success of his prayers to end the pandemic more than 13 months ago. Encouraged by his success then, more prayers are ascending heavenward."

That is funny.

[cdnmatt]

Wrong direction... 2041 today

[Blueskytoday]

when you see all the people in bar/entertainment areas many with NO masks......what can one expect??

[goji]

when you see all the people in bar/entertainment areas many with NO masks......what can one expect??

It is difficult to eat and drink with a mask on.
Theoretically a mask with a built in drinking straw might allow drinking, but I have never seen anyone using such a device.
As far as I can tell, Thailand attempts to get around this problem with screens & social distancing in restaurants and when covid is severe, bar closures.
So during the outbreak earlier in the year, bars were closed and measures were taken to ensure spacing in restaurants. At the time, that seemed to be sufficient, as declared cases decreased and they were eventually able to relax restrictions.

Thailand now has the B.1.1.7 variant which is more contagious, so perhaps previous measures will be insufficient.

[Blueskytoday]

In the video's I saw,,many just walking around the bar streets, talking, laughing,,,not drinking and eating...anyway,,just my thought...I doubt TH will be
open without quarantine the rest of this year.....

[StevieWonders]

Encouragingly the daily figures are down to 1,763 today. Yesterday’s number poked through the fortnightly average but we’re below today. The weekly average appears to have peaked and to be falling despite the individual horror stories of Klong Toey and a regional post office. Fingers crossed.

[cdnmatt]

If Thailand actually pulls this off and manages to put this latest outbreak down, they deserve one hell of a round of applause.

[StevieWonders]

Today = 2,112. Oh dear

[cdnmatt]

As I stated, if Thailand somehow miraculously manages to get this outbreak put down, they deserve one hell of a round of applause.

However, all considering, I doubt containment is possible any longer. Thailand now joins basically the rest of the world, and is in for one very, very.... very long ass lockdown until its population reaches herd immunity via vaccination rollout.

Many Western nations have this on the horizon -- Israel is basically there, US and UK are close, Canada and many others are only a few months out, et al. It'll probably be a while before SE Asia catches up though...

[StevieWonders]

Many Western nations have this on the horizon -- Israel is basically there, US and UK are close, Canada and many others are only a few months out, et al. It'll probably be a while before SE Asia catches up though...You’re discounting Vietnam then? Not sure about vaccination but their record of containment is superb.

[StevieWonders]

And then there’s Singapore - a high number of vaccinations but nevertheless a new cluster in just the last few days

[cdnmatt]

And then there’s Singapore - a high number of vaccinations but nevertheless a new cluster in just the last few days


Yes, in case you haven't picked up on it yet, the current variants floating around are quite brutal.

Gone are the good ole days of just plan vanilla Covid.

[christianpfc]

However, all considering, I doubt containment is possible any longer. Thailand now joins basically the rest of the world, and is in for one very, very.... very long ass lockdown until its population reaches herd immunity via vaccination rollout.
Exactly my thoughts! The party is over, here in Cambodia as well. End of January, I was in a bar in Kampot, packed with over 50 customers, none of them wearing a mask. We won't get this again this year in Thailand or Cambodia.

[bkkguy]

Thailand now joins basically the rest of the world, and is in for one very, very.... very long ass lockdown until its population reaches herd immunity via vaccination rollout.

Many Western nations have this on the horizon -- Israel is basically there, US and UK are close, Canada and many others are only a few months out, et al. It'll probably be a while before SE Asia catches up though...

is "herd immunity" even a realistic goal anymore in the US or elsewhere?

Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe - New York Times, May 3, 2021 (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html)

[StevieWonders]

is "herd immunity" even a realistic goal anymore in the US or elsewhere?

Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe - New York Times, May 3, 2021 (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html)
Whether it’s a reality or not, the betting is on the need for an annual booster shot just like the one for the ‘flu. Given the current shortages imagine what 2022 is going to be like unless worldwide production is (probably) trebled between now and then.

[Blueskytoday]

I think everyone knows...Thailand will not be open without quarantine and health insurance and this and that and this and that.....

[StevieWonders]

1,911 today. Presented graphically, you can see that the incidence is flattening out. Hopeful, but no cigar yet

11063

[Dodger]

I think everyone knows...Thailand will not be open without quarantine......

Not everyone!

[Sen Yai]

1,911 today. Presented graphically, you can see that the incidence is flattening out. Hopeful, but no cigar yet

11063

Hopefully we will see a downward trend emerging in the coming week....

[goji]

I think everyone knows...Thailand will not be open without quarantine and health insurance and this and that and this and that.....

Thailand will reopen without quarantine. It might be 2021, 2022 or with more problems than expected, even later. My best guess is late 2021 with either zero or 8 night quarantine.

The Junta might well try to keep some useless insurance in place, particularly if they or their friends have financial interests in such businesses. However, eventually the tourists will have a choice of countries to go to. So Thailand either has to be competitive or lose market share.

So far, Thailand has been one of very few countries to allow any kind of entry for tourists.

[a447]

I think it will re-open for tourists sometime in 2022.

In any case, it won't concern me because we've been told today that Australia's borders will not open for international travel until probably late in 2022.

Mind you, the situation is evolving all the time and things could easily change but I've basically given up hope of travelling overseas in the foreseeable future.

Damn!

[cdnmatt]

Late 2022?!? So ~18 months from now?

Fuck me...

[Moses]

Fuck me...

Dreams... dreams...

[goji]

In any case, it won't concern me because we've been told today that Australia's borders will not open for international travel until probably late in 2022.

Mind you, the situation is evolving all the time and things could easily change but I've basically given up hope of travelling overseas in the foreseeable future.

The UK still has some restrictions on overseas travel, but a friend who is a company Director can sign off his own business trips, which have some exemptions. So I think he's off to a central European capital shortly for some R&R.

I still expect to travel abroad again before the end of the year.

[StevieWonders]

In any case, it won't concern me because we've been told today that Australia's borders will not open for international travel until probably late in 2022.Australian government announcement? Any link?

[cdnmatt]

Australian government announcement? Any link?

Google works! Came from the Finance Minister I guess, and sounds as though him saying that may have been premature:

https://www.studyinternational.com/news/australias-international-borders/

[StevieWonders]

Google works! Came from the Finance Minister I guess, and sounds as though him saying that may have been premature:

https://www.studyinternational.com/news/australias-international-borders/

Excellent news!

[StevieWonders]

Google works! Came from the Finance Minister I guess, and sounds as though him saying that may have been premature:

https://www.studyinternational.com/news/australias-international-borders/What I asked for was an Australian Government announcement. That link is to a single government minister having a brain fart. Politicians have them all the time. Remember the UK Minister who went on breakfast television saying that there won’t be “vaccination passports”, anyone wanting documentation for travel could get a letter from their doctor? Saint Boris overturned that brain fart inside a week. Here’s a link to the Australian PM talking about travel and vaccination passports only this week. No mention of a distant future.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/vaccine-passport-scott-morrison-coronavirus-shots-pfizer-astrazeneca-australia-news/046cc4c9-6293-4fcd-9eb9-374289948f1c

[StevieWonders]

Hopefully we will see a downward trend emerging in the coming week....Bouncing around 2,000 per day, today’s figure is 2,044

[StevieWonders]

2,419 today. Bad but not the worst (2,839 on 24 April). However I now know someone who’s been hospitalised - cousin of an ex. Asymptomatic but showed up in testing (at 3,000 baht a pop).

[cdnmatt]

Time will tell... Laos was thankfully looking good yesterday at only 28 cases.

[gerefan2]

2,419 today. Bad but not the worst (2,839 on 24 April)..

With over 1100 critically ill and nearly 400 on ventilators I’d say that’s not far from the worst...

[StevieWonders]

2,101 today, a slight fall from yesterday but still above trend.

11072

[a447]

The news gets worse for Australians.


The Prime Minister is warning Australia's international borders will remain closed for the foreseeable future, as his Treasurer notes this week's federal budget assumes Australia will remain locked off to the rest of the world until at least 2022.

ABC News

[goji]

The news gets worse for Australians.
This seems even worse than the penal colony era. At least they allowed people in then.
What does public opinion think of this ?

In the UK, it seems the public mostly support travel restrictions, which will be a long way short of a complete closure. However, if we find the virus mutations don't result in people getting severe covid, I imagine there will be more support for travel.

[a447]

What does public opinion think of this ?

Unfortunately, the news reported that 2/3 of the population supports closed by borders.

[cdnmatt]

The news gets worse for Australians.



ABC News


On the upside, Australia is doing amazing in terms of the virus, so I guess you don't have to live in a society where a bunch of people are dieing around you and you're not allowed to get sick becuase there's no longer any doctors available.

[StevieWonders]

Unfortunately, the news reported that 2/3 of the population supports closed by borders.What has happened to the taskforce Morrison announced that’s reviewing the need for quarantine for those who’ve been vaccinated?

[StevieWonders]

On the upside, Australia is doing amazing in terms of the virus, so I guess you don't have to live in a society where a bunch of people are dieing around you and you're not allowed to get sick becuase there's no longer any doctors available.You mean locking out almost everyone including their own citizens?

[StevieWonders]

1,630 today - a significant fall. It’s the lowest daily figure this month.

[StevieWonders]

While I disagree that posts on the topic of Australia's travel bans belong in this thread on COVID in Thailand, nevertheless here's a contribution from an Australian source underlining, so it seems, that this is a political not a medical decision

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/10/politics-rules-australias-international-travel-ban-not-based-on-science-health-experts-say

[StevieWonders]

1,919 today so the 2,000 daily average seems a fair bet, although with larger fluctuations than previously

11086

[cdnmatt]

Still seems like Laos has a chance of containment. Only 35 today, I think it was 28 yesterday.

They had a few days of over 100 though, so time will tell...

[StevieWonders]

Still seems like Laos has a chance of containment. Only 35 today, I think it was 28 yesterday.

They had a few days of over 100 though, so time will tell... It might be worth mentioning that the Lao capital’s population is half that of Chiang Mai or maybe two or three times that of Pattaya, so that percentages or rates per thousand give a more meaningful comparison. Raw numbers mean nothing.

[StevieWonders]

In news just in, Dodgems’ magnanimous effort of staying at home and self-isolating is paying off with the lowest number of new cases in a month reported by the Chonburi Public Health Office. Keep it up, Dodgems.

[StevieWonders]

1,983 is today’s number - not great but not bad, still around the 2,000 per day average

[StevieWonders]

The headline figure today looks dreadful - 4,887 - but represents the Thai authorities finally admitting there’s a COVID problem in their prisons. Who’d have thought it?! There are 2,835 total infections in prison and they didn’t all catch it on the same day but the figure is lumped in with today’s. I’ve recorded the civilian figures only - 2,052 - again around that 2,000 average figure.

Are the Thai figures reliable? Almost certainly not - only a few thousand are being tested daily and most if not all have to pay 3,000 baht for the “privilege”. That’s why I look at the trends rather than the figures and the trend is flat. No signs of a fall yet.

[Armando]

The Thai authorities have really dropped the ball big time after their excellent actions for most of last year. The Samut Sakhon fish market outbreak in December was a large cluster waiting to happen. Successive Thai governments had said they would solve the problem of illegal Burmese labourers but no doubt because of the big money men and politicians' cronies controlling the business nothing was done. But someone should at least have been testing all the workers. Still, Singapore failed to pay any attention to its immigrant worker dormitories and suffered hugely as a result.

Prisons are another prime testing area, but who in the Thai government cares about prisoners? Have airport workers been tested yet, I wonder? Singapore has again been caught unawares with a cluster at Changi airport forcing the closure of three terminals. Taiwan which had such a great record last year has now grounded China Airlines for two weeks following cases being found among flight crew arriving from overseas destinations. Why were they not among the first to be vaccinated? The mind boggles.

[StevieWonders]

The Thai authorities have really dropped the ball big time after their excellent actions for most of last year. The Samut Sakhon fish market outbreak in December was a large cluster waiting to happen. Successive Thai governments had said they would solve the problem of illegal Burmese labourers but no doubt because of the big money men and politicians' cronies controlling the business nothing was done. But someone should at least have been testing all the workers. Still, Singapore failed to pay any attention to its immigrant worker dormitories and suffered hugely as a result.

Prisons are another prime testing area, but who in the Thai government cares about prisoners? Have airport workers been tested yet, I wonder? Singapore has again been caught unawares with a cluster at Changi airport forcing the closure of three terminals. Taiwan which had such a great record last year has now grounded China Airlines for two weeks following cases being found among flight crew arriving from overseas destinations. Why were they not among the first to be vaccinated? The mind boggles.Human beings are fallible? Who knew?!

[cdnmatt]

Taiwan which had such a great record last year has now grounded China Airlines for two weeks following cases being found among flight crew arriving from overseas destinations. Why were they not among the first to be vaccinated? The mind boggles.

They probably were vaccinated.... with the Chinese junk that doesn't work.

[Patanawet]

.. with the Chinese junk that doesn't work.

On what do you base that statement?

[Patanawet]

From today's B.P. :
Indonesia is about to announce a glowing report on Sinovac vaccine based on a study on 128,000 health workers.

[Moses]

They probably were vaccinated.... with the Chinese junk that doesn't work.

yes-yes... "doesn't work"... sure... That why it is 65000+ sick per million of population in UK and only 63 per million in China... yes, 63, not 63000 - only 63...

[arsenal]

"They probably were vaccinated.... with the Chinese junk that doesn't work."

"On what do you base that statement?"

On this perhaps.

[goji]

yes-yes... "doesn't work"... sure... That why it is 65000+ sick per million of population in UK and only 63 per million in China... yes, 63, not 63000 - only 63...

I wonder what percentage of independent observers would believe Chinese government figures ?

[arsenal]

"yes-yes... "doesn't work"... sure... That why it is 65000+ sick per million of population in UK and only 63 per million in China... yes, 63, not 63000 - only 63..."


Moses. Please. Stop comparing China to other countries. You're simply missing the point. China can control it's citizens in a way that no western govt can. Nothing to do with vaccination and everything to do with controlling it from the very start. When I arrived back I was policed from the airport to my apartment and then for the next 14 days. Wuhan and the surrounding area was entirely closed for 40 days and the actual death toll will never be known. The Chinese people are very aware of the limitations of theit vaccination so there are no long queues to get it. Life here is pretty normal but not due to vaccination, it's because the Chinese govt was able to act quite ruthlessly within a very short period of the outbreak.

[cdnmatt]

"They probably were vaccinated.... with the Chinese junk that doesn't work."

"On what do you base that statement?"

On this perhaps.

On the clinical trials that peg it at ~50.3% efficacy, UAE still can't get Covid under control after having ~65% of its population vaccinated with it, Sechelles is currently under lockdown orders after having ~70% of its population vaccinated with it, et al.

No idea why you'd post an image asking for my thoughts on it though... no idea...

[Moses]

I wonder what percentage of independent observers would believe Chinese government figures ?

It isn't important. Even if Chinese hides 10 times more dead bodies there still be 65000 : 630 ratio... and even if 100 times more (it is unbelievable amount of dead bodies) then ratio will be 65000 : 6300 - over 10 times in favor of China...

[Moses]

Moses. Please. Stop comparing China to other countries. You're simply missing the point.
I missing nothing. I directly show to "some too much proud people" what their "developed civilization" worth zero against virus, what their cries "only US vaccines" worth zero... we see what "dictatorship" is 100 times effective in saving lives, what "freedom" is antagonist of effective fight with pandemic event we have now...

Once again: zero. And when drama-queens starting to cry "Ah Chinese!!!" it is right time to take a look on results what China has right now in fight with virus: 65000/63 West lost, China won.

[cdnmatt]

we see what "dictatorship" is 100 times effective in saving lives, what "freedom" is antagonist of effective fight with pandemic

Are you really trying to convince everyone we'd all be better off living under a dictatorship?

[Moses]

Are you really trying to convince everyone we'd all be better off living under a dictatorship?

Not to mention, funny side effect of dictatoryships. They control everything, especially the news and info

I am "trying" nothing. "Trying" isn't result - it is process. I'm pointing to result of China. China won fight with virus. West lost. At least for now. Rest is just blabla-bla.

And, Matt, I spend in total over 3 year in China, have a lot of Chinese friends and for sure I have idea what means "dictatorship" in China in real life, not only from propaganda of CNN and other "bbc" what have now to explain to own nations why Western governments looks like deep losers at time when China looks like total winner.

[Manforallseasons]

I am "trying" nothing. "Trying" isn't result - it is process. I'm pointing to result of China. China won fight with virus. West lost. At least for now. Rest is just blabla-bla.

And, Matt, I spend in total over 3 year in China, have a lot of Chinese friends and for sure I have idea what means "dictatorship" in China in real life, not only from propaganda of CNN and other "bbc" what have now to explain to own nations why Western governments looks like deep losers at time when China looks like total winner.

Lol, in whose eyes.....RT?

[Moses]

Lol, in whose eyes.....RT?

any... how else may looks 65000 against 63 cases?

[arsenal]

Moses wrote.
"I missing nothing. I directly show to "some too much proud people" what their "developed civilization" worth zero against virus, what their cries "only US vaccines" worth zero... we see what "dictatorship" is 100 times effective in saving lives, what "freedom" is antagonist of effective fight with pandemic event we have now...

Once again: zero. And when drama-queens starting to cry "Ah Chinese!!!" it is right time to take a look on results what China has right now in fight with virus: 65000/63 West lost, China won."


Won what? No country wants to dine as equals* at the top table as China does and no country is further away from that than China is right now.

* Bringing not just money but respect, welcomed, a touch of class, a smile perhaps...you wouldn't understand. Your hatred of the West is mirrored in The Kremlin.

[StevieWonders]

The daily reports in the media are now broken down into “general population” and “prisoners”. The general figure is still slightly above the 2,000 average at 2,073 with prisoners at 183

[cdnmatt]

Good news for Laos today though, only 16 cases.

They're hoping to be out of lockdown on the 20th, but time will tell depending on case numbers.

[StevieWonders]

The daily numbers are rising (slightly) again and the numbers now include prisoners, previously unreported. Today’s total is 3,095 of which 877 are prisoners. The general population number is therefore 2,218.

This week’s Economist has an article on the increasing numbers in the SE Asian region including an incredible anecdote about the latest outbreak in Cambodia. The article blames “festivals, foreigners and fornication” as largely responsible. I’d add “complacency”. The article can be read for free by registering your email address:

https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/05/15/a-worrying-new-wave-of-covid-19-is-hitting-south-east-asia

[cdnmatt]

That article peaked my interest enough for the Economist to get an e-mail address out of me.


The article blames “festivals, foreigners and fornication” as largely responsible. I’d add “complacency”.

It does add complacency:


experts blame travel and mass intermingling during festive periods, in addition to complacency.

[Armando]

Looking at the history of the pandemic in countries like Thailand, Singapore and Taiwan, it seems more than clear that the devil has been complacency vastly more than the three 'Fs'.

[cdnmatt]

Looking at the history of the pandemic in countries like Thailand, Singapore and Taiwan, it seems more than clear that the devil has been complacency vastly more than the three 'Fs'.

True, but maybe complacency isn't quite as bad as many in the West's approach of, "fuck you, there is no virus, live free or die!".

[StevieWonders]

True, but maybe complacency isn't quite as bad as many in the West's approach of, "fuck you, there is no virus, live free or die!".Updated statistics on how many (a percentage will do provided the source is cited)?

[StevieWonders]

Today’s figure is 2,302. I’m still checking whether this includes the hundreds being found daily in the prison system.

[StevieWonders]

The prisoner figures from yesterday - 1,219 - will be included in tomorrow’s numbers

[cdnmatt]

... just waiting for that complacency and explosion of cases to hit.

I don't know, just an all around shitty situation. Hopefully this time next year global manufacturing of vaccines will be at a level that we can finally put down this problem altogether. That's the only thing that will get us out of this mess, but it has to be on a global scale.

Like I seen in a news report while they were giving an interview to a doctor in Kenya earlier today... it's a global village, either we're all safe, or none of us are.

[cdnmatt]

What I fear is that as developed nations get the pandemic under control, they will seemingly and conviently forget about it while it ravages other parts of the world.

I REALLY hope this doesn't happen, and the foot stays on the gas until the world has this Covid issue solved, because that's the only way we're getting out of it. I hope governments across the world are smart enough to realize that, and don't take their foot off the gas to divert resources into their local economies instead of the pandemic.

[StevieWonders]

A much higher figure today including thousands of prisoners - 9,635 - with 2,782 in the general population

[cdnmatt]

6 weeks, and opening for tourism, baby!

[StevieWonders]

6 weeks, and opening for tourism, baby!Prison tourism a speciality.

[StevieWonders]

If today's figures for the general population suggest signal rather than mere noise then there's some encouragement (one swallow doesn’t make a boyfriend) - the recent peak although close is (just) lower than the early May figure. Today it's 1,797 in the general population with a further 680 prisoners for a total of 2,473

By way of perspective (and a figure to gladden goji’s heart) 2,421 were injured on the roads yesterday - pretty much the daily average all year, every day.

Out of the 5,893 people that have died in road accidents this year so far, 80% were motorcyclists. The biggest age group is 36-60 years at 36%. For injuries, the biggest age group is the same but children under 15 accounted for 25% of all injuries

[StevieWonders]

Today’s figures look bad but include 1,498 prisoners. The general population figure is 1,896

[arsenal]

"Today’s figures look bad..."

Today's figures look terrible. Over half the active membership now has you on ignore. So basically you're posting for Matt.

[StevieWonders]

"Today’s figures look bad..."

Today's figures look terrible. Over half the active membership now has you on ignore. So basically you're posting for Matt.Ah, Q - there you are.

Whatever’s happening to your little band of conspiracy theorists? You and Dodgems "identified" Plantagenet as another hydra (in complete contradiction to Moses' express instructions) whereas goji continued to have intercourse with him briefly.

I do congratulate you on your ability to muddy the waters by introducing argosy as a member of the hydra. Some Forum members will recall that argosy enjoyed a brief existence while you were once banned, and espoused identical views to your own. However that's our dirty little secret - your fellow Book Burners will never know as they've blocked me and they, as honourable men will never, ever peek at what I post. Dodgems, francois, goji, Patanawet - all honourable men.

[StevieWonders]

Thailand recorded 2,636 new cases of COVID-19 including 671 cases reported in prisons and 1,965 in the general population. Phuket recorded no new cases earlier this week.

[StevieWonders]

While we're waiting for today’s COVID stats, here's the 24 hour road accident report for 20/5/2021: 40 deaths and 2,143 injuries. Deaths include one child. TOTAL FOR 2021: 6,012 deaths and 386,621 injuries

As for COVID there have been 703 deaths IN TOTAL and approximately 120,000 cases (that's from January 2020)

[StevieWonders]

Phuket recorded a handful of cases but the government is steaming ahead with plans to open the Sandbox on 1 July (roughly the Biblical 40 days and 40 nights away)

Today's total is 32 deaths and a total 3,481 cases. This number include 951 prisoners, so the number in the general population is 2,530 - not a great result but unfortunately a steady one. 2,839 is the highest point in the current wave (on April 24, right after Songkran)

[cdnmatt]

On the bright side, Laos is doing good... 14 two days ago, 12 cases yesterday. See what today brings.

On the bad side, no chance Laos is opening it's borders until Thailand does, and I still think Thailand's re-opening schedule is a pipe dream.

[StevieWonders]

There was a total of 3,052 new cases of COVID-19 bringing the total tally to 126,118. Today's new cases include 605 cases recorded in prisons and 2,447 recorded elsewhere in Thailand

I’m not sure if the “elsewhere in Thailand” figure includes the 1,000 found in a single construction camp

[StevieWonders]

3,382 new infections including 460 from prisons. Construction sites seem to be the new epicentre

[cdnmatt]

So they beat their previous record of I think it was 2800 in one day. Damn...

Laos is still doing good, and keeping it under 20/day.

[StevieWonders]

So they beat their previous record of I think it was 2800 in one day. Damn...

Laos is still doing good, and keeping it under 20/day.
I’ve always thought the numbers themselves of little consequence - statistical sampling to indicate the trend rather than any semblance of the actual cases. Thailand often charges 3,000 baht for a test and has little or no contact tracing so these figures have no precision to them at all.

[cdnmatt]

I’ve always thought the numbers themselves of little consequence - statistical sampling to indicate the trend rather than any semblance of the actual cases. Thailand often charges 3,000 baht for a test and has little or no contact tracing so these figures have no precision to them at all.

Well, if Worldometer stats are correct, Thailand is doing 116k tests per-million population. Definitely lower than developed countries out there, but not horrendously bad either. For example, Canada is at 850k tests per-million, US a little over a million, UK over 2 million though.

[Armando]

I’ve always thought the numbers themselves of little consequence - statistical sampling to indicate the trend rather than any semblance of the actual cases. Thailand often charges 3,000 baht for a test and has little or no contact tracing so these figures have no precision to them at all.
I have a sometime friend in Hua Hin whose 57 year old father was showing symptoms a couple of months ago. Even though he had been out of work for some time, the hospital only provided a test with an advance payment of 1,000 baht. I wrongly assumed it would be free for Thais. He was called the next day and told he was positive. He would need to travel by ambulance to the hospital for which his son had to find 700 baht. After six days in hospital he died. The son was left with hospital and funeral costs. He was also told he should be tested and that would also cost 1,000 baht!

I have no idea if this is regular practice. If so, there is a lot wrong with the covid procedures.

[StevieWonders]

Thailand recorded 2,713 new cases of COVID-19 with 30 new deaths on Monday. Today's new cases include 206 cases reported in prisons and 2,507 in the general population.

[StevieWonders]

Here’s an example of the clusters that Thailand is experiencing - 2,000 in a single factory. There was a report of 1,000 at a single construction site the other day:

https://thethaiger.com/news/national/phetchaburi-factory-sees-more-than-2000-infections-field-hospital-on-the-way

[StevieWonders]

There's total of 3,226 new cases of COVID-19: 882 cases in prisons and 2,344 in the general population

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[StevieWonders]

Of the 33 currently active clusters in Bangkok, 12 have been found in construction-worker camps, nine around markets and shopping centres, seven in crowded communities, four at businesses and one at care homes.

Source @ThaiEnquirer on Twitter

[Dodger]

AstraZenica shortage could cause delays in second dosage according to the article below...(believe at your own risk).

https://pattayaone.news/astrazeneca-vaccines-will-now-be-administered-16-weeks-after-the-first-dose/

With one dose of AstraZenica rendering only 33% effectiveness. It's starting to look like the small percentage of Thais who do actually get a vaccine (any vaccine) this year, will only have minimal protection.

Those receiving two doses of Sinovac will have somewhere around 50% protection (maybe).

The only golden lining in this story for us expats is to wait for Moderna or Sputnic to get here.

[cdnmatt]

The only golden lining in this story for us expats is to wait for Moderna or Sputnic to get here.

Not sure what Thailand's arrangements with Moderna are, but I know here in Canada they've just (once again) announced reduced shipments.

Plus it came out here that you're not supposed to mix Moderna and Pfizer, so that sucks because everyone I know myself included has one shot of Moderna. Hopefully we can manage to get a second.

[StevieWonders]

I suspect pretty much all the vaccine manufacturers were issuing supply forecasts based solely on a “best case scenario” - a very courageous assumption as it turns out.

[Dodger]

.

Plus it came out here that you're not supposed to mix Moderna and Pfizer, so that sucks because everyone I know myself included has one shot of Moderna. Hopefully we can manage to get a second.

I know this is going to sound like a very stupid question at this juncture, but I never knew if two different vaccines could be taken by the same person or not?

I can see it now:

A guy walks into a hospital and asks the nurse "what do you have in stock"? She says "only one shot of Moderna left, we're out of Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson, but still have a small supply of Sinovac and Sputnik on hand...which do you want"? And the guy replies; "Give me a shot of Moderna and a Sputnik chaser". Two days later he's dead...LOL

[dinagam]

I hope this is not a premonition of the not too distant future.

[StevieWonders]

A total of 2,455 new confirmed cases were recorded in the past 24 hours including 479 cases in prisons

[StevieWonders]

A total of 3,323 new cases were reported over the past 24 hours including 1,219 cases reported in prisons.

[StevieWonders]

Today's headline figure looks horrendous - 3,759 new cases of COVID-19. However, today's new cases are 2,465 recorded in the general population and 1,294 cases recorded in prisons. The general population figure is the third highest in the past 7 days

[StevieWonders]

Another horror headline figure - 4,803 new cases overall - but, digging deeper, the new cases include 2,101 in the general population and 2,702 prisoners. The daily average for the general population for all of May is 2150.

[cdnmatt]

And we have Laos clocking in at.... wait for it... 3 cases today.

Thumbs up to Laos, they seem to actually be getting it under control. See what happens when more of the lockdown is lifted on June 4th.

[Mancs]

I know this is going to sound like a very stupid question at this juncture, but I never knew if two different vaccines could be taken by the same person or not?

I can see it now:

A guy walks into a hospital and asks the nurse "what do you have in stock"? She says "only one shot of Moderna left, we're out of Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson, but still have a small supply of Sinovac and Sputnik on hand...which do you want"? And the guy replies; "Give me a shot of Moderna and a Sputnik chaser". Two days later he's dead...LOL

A friend of mine was on a trial for Novavax and had the vaccine which is not yet licensed. He has since managed to get the 2 NHS jabs (I forget which) in the uk . He is still healthy.

[goji]

I know this is going to sound like a very stupid question at this juncture, but I never knew if two different vaccines could be taken by the same person or not?

Good question.

1 A Spanish trial shows what I understand is BETTER results from mixing vaccines. In Spanish, but Chrome translates it. https://www.isciii.es/Noticias/Noticias/Paginas/Noticias/Presentaci%c3%b3n-resultados-preliminares-CombivacS.aspx

2 The UK government is organizing trials on various combinations of vaccines. The sample size is surprisingly small @ 1050 people. As I thought one of each would be a very good idea, I looked into signing up last month, but as with previous trials, I live outside the catchment area. https://comcovstudy.org.uk/about-com-cov2

3 It's common to mix non-covid vaccines. Get a flu jab one year and no one asks what flu jab you had the previous year. Or go for some travel vaccines and you usually are offered all at the same time, even if it's "very nearly an armful" (quote borrowed).

[Blueskytoday]

And we have Laos clocking in at.... wait for it... 3 cases today.

Thumbs up to Laos, they seem to actually be getting it under control. See what happens when more of the lockdown is lifted on June 4th.

IF this is true??? lets hope but this number is way way too low in my opinion......

[cdnmatt]

IF this is true??? lets hope but this number is way way too low in my opinion......

Nope, I believe it. FOr a while there Laos was getting over 100 cases per-day, then it kept dropping, was around 50 per-day for a bit, down to ~20 per-day, and I just seen that 3 number so thought I would post it.

I'm quite a bit more emotionally invested in Laos, so keep track of it closely.

I believe it, because when Laos says lockdown, it's not a mere suggestion. It's not like Canada where a "lockdown" means the head doctor of the government comes on TV and asks, "please stay at home". In Laos police get stationed every where and you are not going where you're not supposed to.

My guy went to his village for Songkran, then the outbreak hit, and he's been stuck there since, lol. He's not really allowed to leave the village, so there he sits bored unable to even look for work.

[StevieWonders]

IF this is true??? lets hope but this number is way way too low in my opinion......
Statistics in SE Asia at best represent trends rather than actual numbers.

[StevieWonders]

Thailand recorded 4,528 new cases of COVID-19 including 1,902 cases in prisons and 2,626 in the general population

[francois]

IF this is true??? lets hope but this number is way way too low in my opinion......

I have a young friend in Laos who received his initial vaccination about two weeks ago. They do seem to be far ahead of Thailand in that regard.

[Sen Yai]

Statistics in SE Asia at best represent trends rather than actual numbers.

Indeed. But, far from seeing a downward trend as hoped for in the past few weeks, the figures throughout May have remained stubbornly around +/-2,000/day. If anything, there has been an increasing trend, but nothing nearly as steep, and certainly not the exponential increase that has been seen in many other countries.

By comparison, just down the road in Malaysia they have been recording figures of 3,000~6,000 per day and yesterday recorded a record high at 9,000. And, for goji's interest, the population of Malaysia is 32.6m compared to Thailand's 69.9m

[cdnmatt]

All I see today is 5,485 cases. How many general, and how many prisoners?

[Armando]

What I find surprising is that Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam were all held up as virtual role models last year of how to contain the virus. Now all three countries are battling major outbreaks. A friend in Danang just told me that his city is yet again locked down. I realise that Prayut overruled his medical team by allowing Songkran to go ahead and have millions of people wandering around the country spreading the virus. Yet why on earth would he agree to that in the knowledge that the practical and medical costs would just keep rising way beyond any political advantage when they could have been far better controlled with the country perhaps opening earlier?

Taiwan is in a much better situation but again political leadership seems to have overruled the medical experts. With the island shut off from the world for most of last year, it takes the insane decision that the quarantine period for airline pilots who are in and out of the country on a regular basis could be reduced from 14 days to 7 days, then 5 days and finally 3 days. Of course they had to be quarantined in the airport hotel, but the control was so lax, two EVA airlines pilots got out of the hotel for a night on the town with their girlfriends. These guys were fired and fined $10,000. Now China Airlines is shut down for two weeks because its on board staff also brought back the virus. And now the entire island is locked down with the population experiencing for the first time what most of the world experienced last year.

How is it that those who make such decisions are so idiotic?

[StevieWonders]

All I see today is 5,485 cases. How many general, and how many prisoners?Sorry Matt

A big jump today - 5,485 new cases of COVID-19: 1,953 cases in prisons and 3,582 in the general population

[StevieWonders]

How is it that those who make such decisions are so idiotic?That’s what being human means. India is a clusterfuck because having got their pandemic under control the prime minister decided to hold huge election rallies. In Malaysia it was the breaking of the daily fast during Ramadan. In Chile apparently it was “vaccination will solve all our problems” so they opened up in anticipation. People are stupid - get over it.

[cdnmatt]

Sorry Matt

A big jump today - 5,485 new cases of COVID-19: 1,953 cases in prisons and 3,582 in the general population


That sucks. Although it's not showing on my end yet, was told Laos cut its rate down to a third of yesterday to only 1 today. Cool.

[StevieWonders]

Better figures today - 77 cases reported in prisons and 2,153 in the general population. I suspect the daily rate is being distorted by clusters such as factories or construction sites where hundreds are tested at a time. The average for all of May was 2,208

[StevieWonders]

Today's new cases include 1,087 cases in prisons and 2,353 in the general population

[arsenal]

"What I find surprising is that Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam were all held up as virtual role models last year of how to contain the virus."

Only when it's pretty much at the end will it be possible to know which govt got most of it rightish. This is totally uncharted territory for every one of them.

In the UK half the country are angry at Johnson cos he didn't lock down sooner, half the country are angry cos he locked down at all, half the country are angry cos he locked down too long or not long enough and half the country are just angry at whatever they're told to be angry about by that days media.

[Patanawet]

Yes Arsenal. If the U.K. had this lot, then they'd have something to be angry about.

[Armando]

"What I find surprising is that Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam were all held up as virtual role models last year of how to contain the virus."

Only when it's pretty much at the end will it be possible to know which govt got most of it rightish. This is totally uncharted territory for every one of them..
My post #197 above outlines my views. I do not agree that the situation in these countries was uncharted, at least for Thailand and Taiwan. Both governments were totally complacent. Both took their eyes of the obvious. They knew that testing, tracing and quarantine were vital. Thailand rejected the advice of its medical experts by going ahead with Songkran. Immigration officials presumably accepted large bribes to let the son of the Central Department Store empire return in early April after his gambling jaunt to Cambodia. Now we have the results. And we read that Prayut would not accept medical advise re Songkran because the government would not be popular!!

[StevieWonders]

3,886 cases (1,230 from prisons) on Thursday

[StevieWonders]

There are 2,631 new cases including 189 from prisons reported today

[StevieWonders]

There have been 2,817 cases (315 from prisons) reported in the past 24 hours

[StevieWonders]

There were 2,671 cases recorded yesterday including 604 from prisons

[StevieWonders]

There were 2,419 cases recorded yesterday, 91 from prisons

[StevieWonders]

Today's general population figure is 2,112 - 2,662 cases in total with 534 from prisons

[StevieWonders]

2,400 today with a further 200+ in prisons

[StevieWonders]

Today's total is 2,310 cases (102 from prisons). And here's Little Richard's Guide to the Trend:

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[Kenny]

Numbers seem pretty low. Countries with higher numbers are opening up.
Big decision ahead whether to reopen or wait for the vaccine rollout to reach herd immunity levels, which could take a long time.

[StevieWonders]

Below 2,000 local cases today: 2,290 cases in all, 294 from prisons (local cases include travellers)

[StevieWonders]

Total numbers are up again today - 3,277 cases, with 892 of those from prisons

[StevieWonders]

Today's figures are 2,804 cases in total, of which 409 are from prisons; 2,391 in the general population and travellers

[StevieWonders]

An uptick today - 3,355 cases, 784 from prisons and 2,571 in the general population

[StevieWonders]

A round number today - 3,000 cases with 640 from prisons

[StevieWonders]

As this story sets out, a lot of the notified cases are clustered in factories and markets. The official statistics are unreliable since testing is not exactly encouraged because people have to pay for it (so why would you?):

https://thethaiger.com/news/national/bubble-and-seal-method-to-contain-outbreaks-at-factories-keep-business-afloat

[StevieWonders]

Only 26 in prisons today from an overall 2,331. May’s average was a tad over 2,200; June’s is roughly 100 higher. A graphic of the past 7 weeks (from 1 May) shows fluctuations but no real trend:

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[StevieWonders]

There were 3,129 cases recorded in yesterday, 457 from prisons.

[cdnmatt]

There were 3,129 cases recorded in yesterday, 457 from prisons.


Trending upwards I see. Perfect time to open up tourism again.

[StevieWonders]

Trending upwards I see. Perfect time to open up tourism again.Could you expand on how you are calculating “trend”, Matt?

[cdnmatt]

Could you expand on how you are calculating “trend”, Matt?


From the monthly averages you give, and watching the daily count.

[StevieWonders]

From the monthly averages you give, and watching the daily count.Daily counts go down as well as up. While today is a recent high, there was a recent low last week. The fortnightly average (ie. the best surrogate for trend) is virtually flat. The weekly average shows a slight uptick (something like 3%), hardly “trending upwards”.

[StevieWonders]

Today's total is 3,058 cases of which 459 are from prisons. That's 2,599 in the general population including travellers in quarantine. Before Matt gets all prissy about "trending upwards", the fortnightly average over the past 5 days, including these figures, has been 2340, 2340, 2313, 2331, 2338 - steady as she goes.

[gerefan2]

So about 600 per day in prisons? Since mid April that’s about 18,000
Where are they? Out? Hospital? Quarantine?
Thats 10% of the prison population.

[StevieWonders]

So about 600 per day in prisons? Since mid April that’s about 18,000. Where are they? Out? Hospital? Quarantine? Thats 10% of the prison population.

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[Brad the Impala]

So about 600 per day in prisons? Since mid April that’s about 18,000
Where are they? Out? Hospital? Quarantine?
Thats 10% of the prison population.

Good question. I would like to know too. Although I imagine that those that are democracy activists have been kept locked up in the hope that nature may take its course.

[StevieWonders]

Now something to gladden Matt's heart - a trend uptick. It's not quite the all-time high - that was on 31 May and was 150 more than today's total, but today's figure of 3,232 (3,667 including 435 in prison) has dragged the fortnightly average up by 90 to 2,428 and close to its all-time high of 2,445 on June 9.

[StevieWonders]

This is the second consecutive day where the general population figure starts with a 3. Today it's 3,104 - yesterday it was 3,232. Given Thailand's low rate of testing, the figures at best indicate trend rather than actual numbers. In total there were 3,682 cases of which 578 were from prisons. The fortnightly average has risen from 2,338 to 2,488 over the past 3 days.

[cdnmatt]

See, what I say? Trending upwards.

[StevieWonders]

Another 3,000+ day - 3,175 in total but only 140 in prison.

[StevieWonders]

To some extent (if anyone is relying on the figures supplied rather than the trend they approximate) the “local” figures I quote also include travellers already in quarantine. Today’s “true” local figure is 2,990.

[StevieWonders]

Another jump in numbers - 4,059 cases, only 75 from prisons. Excluding travellers that's 3,984 locals. Yes, Matt, it's now trending up.

[gerefan2]

To some extent (if anyone is relying on the figures supplied rather than the trend they approximate) the “local” figures I quote also include travellers already in quarantine. Today’s “true” local figure is 2,990.

If today’s figure of over 4000 includes travellers in quarantine the it just proves that quarantine is unnecessary. Just how many in quarantine were contaminated? Bet it’s not more than single figures out of those 4000 you reported today.

It has never been significant so the latest wave cannot be blamed on quarantined travellers either.

Thailand had it coming, it was only a matter of when.

[StevieWonders]

If today’s figure of over 4000 includes travellers in quarantine the it just proves that quarantine is unnecessary. Just how many in quarantine were contaminated? Bet it’s not more than single figures out of those 4000 you reported today.

It has never been significant so the latest wave cannot be blamed on quarantined travellers either.

Thailand had it coming, it was only a matter of when.What a great rant.

No one has ever blamed the latest outbreak on returning travellers but on infected illegal migrant workers somehow passing it on to the “entertainment” workers centred on Soi Thonglor and thus into the general population. An “ex” of mine, now a hairdresser, became infected because one of his customers was a prostitute in that area. Your use of the pejorative “contaminated” betrays your innate Puritanism.

Is your argument that “Thailand had it coming” based on its porous land borders or its sex industry (bearing in mind you’re a sex tourist yourself)?

[gerefan2]

Is your argument that “Thailand had it coming” based on its porous land borders or its sex industry (bearing in mind you’re a sex tourist yourself)?

Neither.

Many expats (permanent sex tourists, like yourself) congratulated Thailand on their handling of the pandemic. Do we hear them now?

Covid has affected every Nation. It was only a matter of time.

[StevieWonders]

permanent sex touristsA “permanent tourist”? Perhaps you should let the TAT know about this exciting concept.

[StevieWonders]

Today’s total is 3,174 with only 36 in prison. The daily blips (such as yesterday’s) appear to coincide with reports of new clusters inside factories when every worker gets tested. Given that all positive cases are sent to hospital it’s no surprise to read that Bangkok is running out of hospital beds.

[StevieWonders]

Back up to almost 4,000 today - 3,879 plus 229 prisoners.

Phuket recorded 2; it needs to exceed 70 in 7 days to threaten the Sandbox project.

[gerefan2]

Back up to almost 4,000 today .

With the UK “Opening” being postponed for a month (at least) following rapidly rising figures ....11,000+ on Tuesday and 16,000+ on Wednesday...I can’t see many tourists arriving from the UK.

[StevieWonders]

One reason (of many) why the COVID statistics are unreliable:

Multiple hospitals in the Bangkok area have stopped doing PCR swab tests for Covid-19. Their rationale is that if some test comes back positive, there won’t be beds for the patients. Other hospitals have “scaled down” the swab tests because their staff is too busy, says Dr Suppachok Kirdlarp.

Dr Thiravat Hemachudha, head of the Thai Red Cross Emerging Infectious Diseases Health Science Centre, says that Chulalongkorn Hospital has stopped doing Covid swab tests for 4 days starting today. Dr Thiravat cites the lack of beds for potentially infected people.

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/multiple-bangkok-hospitals-stop-covid-testing-citing-fear-of-insuficient-beds

[StevieWonders]

Today’s case number is 3,644 cases with 162 from prisons.

[StevieWonders]

More stories emerge on Bangkok’s shortage of hospital beds - https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2138707

[StevieWonders]

4,161 cases today with 72 from prisons.

[cdnmatt]

4,161 cases today with 72 from prisons.

So they've slowed testing, and cases are still going up? That's not good.

[StevieWonders]

Today's general population figure is 3.950 with a further 45 in prison. Given that some hospitals are no longer testing as they have no beds available for those whose result is positive, these figures are even less reliable. Those beyond the pale have difficulties in getting tested and vaccinated -
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/special-reports/2139103/close-the-vaccine-gap-illegal-migrants-need-help

[StevieWonders]

A bad number today - a 25% jump in 24 hours - 5,406 cases with only 9 from prisons.

Why anyone in the hospitality sector - yes, Silom 4, I mean you - could imagine that with even last week’s worsening figures that booze would be allowed suggests a loose connection with reality. Only a week or so ago the government had said there would be no booze because in their view it encouraged relaxed behaviour and breaking of social distancing behaviour.