Thailand Covid At Record High!

[gerefan2]

5406 today. Glad I left when this started.

[Sen Yai]

5406 today. Glad I left when this started.

Left and returned to UK where the 7-day average is about 14,000 rising to 18,000 on Saturday?

[StevieWonders]

Left and returned to UK where the 7-day average is about 14,000 rising to 18,000 on Saturday?Smugness is its own reward.

[StevieWonders]

As an indication of how the daily statistics jump around, Bangkok represented 35% of cases reported Sunday but only 31% of cases reported today whereas second-ranked province today (Tak in the northwest) reported 8% of total cases but wasn't in the Top Ten yesterday.

The only other significant province reporting is Chonburi which almost doubled its percentage of total cases, from 4% yesterday to 7% today. It's also a 250% jump in total cases - from 155 cases to 390. Other provinces around that 5% mark were steady.

For those who are hoping, praying and ultimately gloating (for) when the Phuket Sandbox fails, the authorities there reported 4 new cases on Saturday and 1 new case yesterday. The case load needs to average 10 per day for a 7-day period for alarm bells to ring.

[gerefan2]

Left and returned to UK where the 7-day average is about 14,000 rising to 18,000 on Saturday?

As I said I left when this started, in April.

The UK infection rate in April had dropped from 70,000 per day to 2000 per day. The death rate had reduced from about 1700 per day to less than 150.

In addition I have now had my 2 AstaZeneca jabs.

I’m alright Jack .. sorry Sen Yai.

[goji]

Here's a graph of cases and deaths in the UK. Death rate moved by 2 weeks on the horizontal axis, for easy comparison & to reflect the lag.

The death rate is increasing slightly, but not enough to show up on the graph. The graph ought to be on a log scale. Note the difference to September.

Currently, about 93% of over 50s have been vaccinated.

Over half the current deaths are amongst the 7% of over 50s who have not been vaccinated. ie There are more deaths among the 7% than the 93%. That's what the anti-vaxxers get for exercising their freedom of choice.

Also, the daily deaths are at a very low level. Far exceeded by other causes, like heart problems. We do not shut the country down for flu and it will shortly be at the stage where we will not be shutting the country down for covid.

Most of the cases in the UK are amongst the younger age groups, but these are currently in the process of being vaccinated, which is expected to fix the problem.


It seems to me that Thailand might not have adjusted it's restrictions up sufficiently to prevent the spread of the variants currently in the country. After all, restrictions appear to be less onerous than the kind of restrictions seen in Europe over the winter.

[StevieWonders]

Today’s figure net of prisons is 4,652

[StevieWonders]

The UK infection rate in April had dropped from 70,000 per day to 2000 per day. The death rate had reduced from about 1700 per day to less than 150.You’re evidently a “fair weather friend”. Cold weather in Blighty? Run away to Thailand. COVID in Thailand? Run back to Blighty.

I would say “no bottom” but that might get some of our members too excited.

[StevieWonders]

Today’s figures are almost the same as yesterday’s - 4,786 with 127 in prisons

[arsenal]

"You’re evidently a “fair weather friend”. Cold weather in Blighty? Run away to Thailand. COVID in Thailand? Run back to Blighty."

At last you finally get it. Only 7 months. Glass of bubbly for mrgiggles, sorry I mean steviewonders.

And you've made loads of errors in your recent hydra whine if you care to look.

[Manforallseasons]

"You’re evidently a “fair weather friend”. Cold weather in Blighty? Run away to Thailand. COVID in Thailand? Run back to Blighty."

At last you finally get it. Only 7 months. Glass of bubbly for mrgiggles, sorry I mean steviewonders.

And you've made loads of errors in your recent hydra whine if you care to look.



Why look? The owner of the board doesn’t care why should anyone else! Why not create some of your own…for example: “Oh no Nice Boys no more”….”Moto 2 Bang Saray” ….. farang in China perhaps”…etc. etc.

[StevieWonders]

Another big jump today - 5,533 cases including 44 from prisons

[Brad the Impala]

Another big jump today - 5,533 cases including 44 from prisons

The progression is now getting scary for Thailand, and for anyone vulnerable there who hasn't been vaccinated.

[Manforallseasons]

The progression is now getting scary for Thailand, and for anyone vulnerable there who hasn't been vaccinated.

The only people I know of here that have been vaccinated are hospital staffs and that has been with the Chinese vaccine Sinovac.

[Blueskytoday]

And Phuket is opening up ????? Kinda silly if I may say so...

[goji]

And Phuket is opening up ????? Kinda silly if I may say so...

1 Phuket is only letting in tourists with vaccinations and PCR tests.

2 Thailand already has covid and has the "delta" variant, so little is to be gained by closing the borders. Would be shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.

3 Apparently 95% of the Phuket GDP is from tourism normally. So there is a lot of incentive to open up for tourism and very little to be lost.

[StevieWonders]

Today 5,880 net of 207 prisoners taking the total to over 6,000

[StevieWonders]

Some stats:

May's monthly average was 2,208 vs. June's 2,970 - an increase of 34%
The weekly average jumped 13% in two days, and 42% in a week
The fortnightly average jumped 11% in two days, and 35% in a week

[cdnmatt]

Can we say it's trending upwards now?

[Brad the Impala]

Can we say it's trending upwards now?

Sorry to say that's correct.

[StevieWonders]

A slightly higher figure today - 6,230 including 294 prisoners - a net figure including travellers of 5,936

[StevieWonders]

There were 5,916 cases reported including 39 in prisons.

[StevieWonders]

There were 6,166 cases (84 cases from prisons) = 6082

[cdnmatt]

I like how the number in prisons dropped off a cliff so suddenly.

[StevieWonders]

I like how the number in prisons dropped off a cliff so suddenly.
What sort of axis are you using for your graph and what criteria are you using to determine what accuracy the figures represent and whether some prisons are not reporting every day? Here are the prisoner figures for the past 5 days:

June 30 - 127
July 1 - 44
July 2 - 207
July 3 - 294
July 4 - 39
July 5 - 84

[StevieWonders]

The daily figures are an improvement but as I’ve said before one swallow doesn’t make a boyfriend and Thai statistics fall into the category of “rubbery”: 5,420 including 37 prisoners

[StevieWonders]

Hold the front page! The Thai government according to the reliable Thai New Reports Twitter account is making testing FREE today at a number of sites - but only for the first 900 lucky customers.

[StevieWonders]

Yesterday's numbers were an aberration - today there are 6,519 cases including 55 cases from prisons. I've noticed that the more detailed daily figures appear to reflect some reporting areas aggregate their figures for a number of days.

[Dodger]

Anybody falling asleep yet?

[cdnmatt]

Anybody falling asleep yet?

Nope, and since Stevie is dropping the ball today, 6,519 cases and 54 deaths today. No idea how many are prisoners as the scraper I have just picks up totals.

Not bored at all, and still waiting for the numbers to jump to ~20k per-day, which I'm guessing they will in the near future. At which point we will probably have to listen to you complain because you didn't get out of dodge and back to the US for a vaccination when you could.

[StevieWonders]

Nope, and since Stevie is dropping the ball today, 6,519 cases and 54 deaths today. No idea how many are prisoners as the scraper I have just picks up totals.

Not bored at all, and still waiting for the numbers to jump to ~20k per-day, which I'm guessing they will in the near future. At which point we will probably have to listen to you complain because you didn't get out of dodge and back to the US for a vaccination when you could.You are having a massive non-cope there Matt - I posted the stats at 8:30 Bangkok time, an hour and a half before you. I guess you can blame your blindness (or is it your drunkenness?)

[StevieWonders]

Now the figures are really taking off - 7,058 today including 68 prisoners.

[cdnmatt]

So my 20k/day prediction may not be too far off. Give it a few more weeks.

[StevieWonders]

So my 20k/day prediction may not be too far off. Give it a few more weeks.Perhaps you can produce your modeling - otherwise it’s mere speculation.

[StevieWonders]

Matt will be salivating - 9,276 cases, 278 of them from prisons

[Dodger]

Thailand heading into 14 day lockdown starting tomorrow (July 10).

https://www.kaohoon.com/news/459972

[StevieWonders]

Thailand heading into 14 day lockdown starting tomorrow (July 10).

https://www.kaohoon.com/news/459972 Poor Amazing Dodgems - it’s Greater Bangkok, not all of Thailand, and there’s already a separate thread. Alzheimer’s anyone?

https://sawatdeenetwork.com/v4/showthread.php?22249-Greater-Bangkok-to-enter-14-day-lockdown

https://thethaiger.com/news/bangkok/breaking-travel-restrictions-and-curfew-to-be-set-in-bangkok-dark-red-provinces

[Ruthrieston]

Starting Monday actually. Have to let the rich Bangkokians spread the virus a bit more first, especially on their weekend trips to Pattaya. Nincompoops continue to make such wonderful decisions.

[StevieWonders]

Matt's wet dreams are coming true - 9,326 cases of which 192 cases are from prisons

[cdnmatt]

Every where is going up nowadays. Canada was at 770 today, and US got 27,000.

[gerefan2]

Every where is going up nowadays. Canada was at 770 today, and US got 27,000.
That’s nothing. Don’t forget the little old UK who were back up to 35,000 again yesterday and who are shortly to end all restrictions.

[goji]

That’s nothing. Don’t forget the little old UK who were back up to 35,000 again yesterday and who are shortly to end all restrictions.

Now the majority of the UK population are vaccinated, even with many cases, the death rate is low and about half of those deaths are amongst the small minority who declined the vaccine. Some of whom are slowly coming to their senses.
Of course, The Guardian & other entities hostile to the government might complain about even this low death rate.
However, the weekly death rate for the current UK covid wave remains far below that of some flu seasons. We do not impose restrictions for flu and based on current information, we should not impose significant restrictions for covid.

It is time for the British population to make their own decisions.

[Uranus]

Of course, The Guardian & other entities hostile to the government might complain about even this low death rate. .

Having a critical view is not akin to hostility.

[cdnmatt]

No idea where Stevie went, so guess I'll fill in. 9,692 cases today.

[Blueskytoday]

Soooo all is well in Phuket in the sandbox..no problems????? I don't believe any of this...

[cdnmatt]

I know you guys all hate him, but where the hell did Stevie go? Did he go and get Covid on us, or something?

Anyway, 11,397 cases today. Going in the wrong direction.

[Dboy]

Soooo all is well in Phuket in the sandbox..no problems????? I don't believe any of this...

And you SHOULDN'T believe anything. If Covid were REALLY dangerous; if Covid really was a deadly pandemic that puts the entire world at risk....wouldn't they have stopped replacement migration by now?

Here's a bus full of Covid cases...why is nobody worried?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-t6nsgoRPA


...because when something else is more important, then Covid is no longer important. Which means that Covid is not at all what it appears to be.

[Dodger]

Thailand's limited production of the AstraZenica vaccine continues to plague Thailand with drastic shoratges of vaccine.

The Bloomberg article below explains the challanges involved in the global suppy-chain, and states that the shortage in Thailand is due to the Thai Company Siambioscience for not being able to ramp up production as planned.

It's becoming very clear (to some) that Thailand bit off more than it could chew regarding its comittments to produce the AstraZenica vaccine, and, as a result, the Kingdom has found itself in a very dangerous position. The root cause of this problem has helped fuel the public demonstrations in Bangkok, which appear to be equally as dangerous.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/astra-mulls-vaccine-imports-southeast-063606540.html

[cdnmatt]

I'm just happy I have my two Modurna jabs. and am hanging out in what is currently the most vaccinated country on the planet.

[Uranus]

I'm just happy I have my two Modurna jabs. and am hanging out in what is currently the most vaccinated country on the planet.


Are you in Malta?

[cdnmatt]

Are you in Malta?


Yes, I'm in Paceville, why?

[Nirish guy]

I'm just happy I have my two Modurna jabs.

ModUrna !?? Not Moderna !??? Oh no, PLEASE tell us that you didn't think it smart to just go ahead and buy your own vaccines from a "trusted source" using Bitcoin perhaps from someone advertising "MODURNA vaccine" for sale on Ali baba or Esty perhaps !??? lol ( I'm joking ! :))

[billyhouston]

Bangkok Post 23 July

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2153275/govt-must-take-vaccine-responsibility

[Brad the Impala]

Bangkok Post 23 July

https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2153275/govt-must-take-vaccine-responsibility

Powerful comment, and criticism, from Thailand's leading English language newspaper.

[Jellybean]

Latest depressing figures -

11346
Source: Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/)

[Blueskytoday]

China has about 1.4 Billion people...yesterday's new covid daily count was stated as 35 people...
Am I the ONLY one who does not belive this crap???

[gerefan2]

Latest depressing figures -

11346
Source: Worldometer (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/)

Thailand should consider themselves lucky.

This site, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ shows that, since the pandemic started, the UK has a fatality rate of 2.27%, the US 1.77% and Italy 2.96% per infection. Thailand has an fatality rate of 0.8%.

And that whilst they battle the Delta variant, which did not affect the other countries so badly.

[Dodger]

China has about 1.4 Billion people...yesterday's new covid daily count was stated as 35 people...
Am I the ONLY one who does not belive this crap???

Add me to your list.

And they're using Sinovac too...LOL

[arsenal]

"No idea where Stevie went, so guess I'll fill in."

I suspect this LP has a few more tracks to play before the party ends.

[a447]

Thailand should consider themselves lucky.

Only if the quoted figures are accurate.

Given that we are talking about Thailand and its "leaders", chances are they are not.

[Moggy]

It all looks even grimmer in the western news.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/thai-volunteers-aid-covid-patients-124534929.html

[cdnmatt]

It all looks even grimmer in the western news.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/thai-volunteers-aid-covid-patients-124534929.html


That sucks to hear. I've been pushing my guy the best I can to get a vaccine, but he's still hesitant for some reason. I know Laos has Johnson and Johnson available, and he can just show up at a hospital and grab one if he wants.

Hopefully he does soon, because Covid is getting out of control in Asia. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

[a447]

Posts in this thread which refer to Covid 19 in Malta have been moved here :

https://sawatdeenetwork.com/v4/showthread.php?22290-Covid-in-Malta-(and-other-countries)

A447
Moderator

[Old git]

So, I wonder what the real deal in Thailand is? How many people are getting enough exposure to build antibodies compared to the offical recorded case count?

If you trawl the sero prevalence data for the UK and compare that to the number of recorded cases, you can calculate that over eight people acquired Covid antibodies for every recorded case during the first year of the pandemic. As of today, the UK has approaching 95% of the population with antibodies, and despite the hype it seems that more got them in the first instance from natural exposure, rather than from vaccination.

In Thailand a sero-prevalence study of conscripts earlier this year suggested virtually no antibodies in the population at all. The number was so low however, the result seemed a little suspect.

But what is the ratio now? What percentage of cases in Thailand are too mild to be noticed - what percentage are going uncounted because those involved can't afford medical care?

How pro-active is the Thai government when it comes to identifying and counting cases? - or are they only counting those they can't deny?

Is 100k recorded cases per week actually a million - or two million - or more..?

In the UK the bug now appears to be burning itself out due to lack of people left to infect - I wonder how long it will take Thailand to reach that stage?

[goji]

So, I wonder what the real deal in Thailand is? How many people are getting enough exposure to build antibodies compared to the offical recorded case count?

If you trawl the sero prevalence data for the UK and compare that to the number of recorded cases, you can calculate that over eight people acquired Covid antibodies for every recorded case during the first year of the pandemic. As of today, the UK has approaching 95% of the population with antibodies, and despite the hype it seems that more got them in the first instance from natural exposure, rather than from vaccination.
What are your sources that show where the UK population got the antibodies from ?

Two weeks ago, 87.2% of the UK population had received vaccines.
According to latest ONS data, 91.9% of the population in England have antibodies & figures are in the same ballpark for the rest of the UK.
Before vaccination started in early December 2020, the ONS reckoned 11.7% of the UK population had antibodies.
(All my data from gov.uk)

[Old git]

What are your sources that show where the UK population got the antibodies from ?

Two weeks ago, 87.2% of the UK population had received vaccines.
According to latest ONS data, 91.9% of the population in England have antibodies & figures are in the same ballpark for the rest of the UK.
Before vaccination started in early December 2020, the ONS reckoned 11.7% of the UK population had antibodies.
(All my data from gov.uk)

The simplest illustration can be seen from the sero prevalence data from the 19th April '21, when 69.3% of people had Covid antibodies, yet at the same time the greatest number that could have had them from vaccination was 31%. Given that many of those 31% would be people who already had antibodies from exposure before they were vaccinated, it can be seen that at that stage vaccination was already a minor player in delivering antibodies, a significance that has continued to diminish since. About 90% of people currently being vaccinated will already have antibodies.

The most recent data you quote references June 28th - over four weeks ago now. By looking at prior numbers and extending the line, taking into account an expected attenuation; you can arrive at a figure of approximately 95% today. However the recent surge in cases must have accelerated the 'mop-up' element. There's quite a high likelihood the current figure is over 96% now - we can certainly be confident about 95%.

(All data from official sources)

[goji]

The simplest illustration can be seen from the sero prevalence data from the 19th April '21, when 69.3% of people had Covid antibodies, yet at the same time the greatest number that could have had them from vaccination was 31%.

On 19 April, about 68% of adults had covid antibodies, similar to your figure, so I agree on that (source ONS)

However, on 19 April, 62.5% of adults had one dose of the vaccine, or if we allow 14 days to acquire the antibodies, then on the 5th of April, 59.8% had at least one dose of the vaccine (source gov.co.uk). Far higher than 31%.

[vnman]

Is there an interactive, colour-coded map of Thailand?

I would appreciate a link.

[Old git]

On 19 April, about 68% of adults had covid antibodies, similar to your figure, so I agree on that (source ONS)

However, on 19 April, 62.5% of adults had one dose of the vaccine, or if we allow 14 days to acquire the antibodies, then on the 5th of April, 59.8% had at least one dose of the vaccine (source gov.co.uk). Far higher than 31%.

You have to distinguish between percentage of adults and percentage of the population. The UK government (unlike most other countries) tends to quote percentage of adults when quoting vaccination rates, but the ourworldindata site helpfully converts this to percentage of population, to bring it in line with other nations.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Does one jab give you antibodies - and when? The published data on this is very cautious, saying that one jab 'might' give you antibodies after a fortnight. I took the mid point between first and second jabs as the highest likely number.

Maybe that was over-pessimistic, but even if you take the most optimistic scenario and assume that everyone will test positive for antibodies two weeks after their first jab, it remains hard to construct an argument that vaccination has been the primary source of antibodies, after deducting the number likely to have had them before being jabbed.

An interesting aside to this is the June 14th data, which showed sero-prevalence of 89.8%, indicating that two thirds of those who did not have antibodies eight weeks prior, gained them during that period. As vaccination is not selective, it was not the primary player here, nor were the relatively small (around 200k recorded) number of cases during that period.

What seems to be at play are large numbers of people who received a light encounter with the bug over the winter, a viral load too small to initiate an infection, but large enough to provoke a gradual immune response.

As far as the LoS is concerned, this gives cause for hope. If the current wave is giving enough people a light encounter with the bug, there could well be a high percentage of the population displaying antibodies by year end.

[goji]

You have to distinguish between percentage of adults and percentage of the population. The UK government (unlike most other countries) tends to quote percentage of adults when quoting vaccination rates, but the ourworldindata site helpfully converts this to percentage of population, to bring it in line with other nations.

As we are looking at antibodies in UK adults, it makes sense to compare with vaccination rates in UK adults, which is exactly what I have done in my previous post.
The ONS only publishes antibody data for UK adults, so to compare that with vaccination data for the entire population from OurWorldinData would give the wrong result.
I would imagine only a few percent of the Thai population have antibodies from infection. The majority of Thais with antibodies will have them from vaccination, as in the UK.

[cdnmatt]

Not to mention, I think you guys may be missing the point of something like 98% of hospitalizations in the West these days are of unvaccinated people.

The vaccines work.

[cdnmatt]

Bad milestone today at 20,200 cases.

[goji]

Following up on the earlier discussion ref sources of antibodies in the UK, on the following graph, apparently the N-type test picks up on antibodies from infection and the S-type picks up antibodies from vaccination.