Baht Feeling Covid Squeeze

[Manforallseasons]

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/economy/thai-baht-performs-worst-of-all-southeast-asian-currencies

[Dodger]

No complaints from me, but surprised that the baht didn't get weaker than it did in 2020???

Now, it's a flip of the coin:

Covid cases increase due to lifting quarantine (starting in Phuket) - baht continues to weaken.
Covid cases don't increase - but tourists don't return because quarantine hasn't been lifted - baht continues to weaken.

Heads I win - Tails you lose.

[cdnmatt]

Sheesh, and some people on this forum were worried that due to a growing economy in Thailand there wouldn't be as many money boys in the future...

[Dodger]

Sheesh, and some people on this forum were worried that due to a growing economy in Thailand there wouldn't be as many money boys in the future...

It's not just the economy, but the aging population as well. I read somewhere where half of Thailand's population will be over fifty years old in a few years time.

A lot of Thailand's hopes for future economic growth seem to be pinned to the EEC (Eastern Economic Corridor) investment, intended to create new business platforms for high tech and other industries along its eastern seaboard. The only problem with this, is it takes $$money$$ (trillions) to complete the EEC expansion, and with the economy already set back to the 1960's, I wonder where they're going to get it.

[cdnmatt]

Aging population, pandemic, climate change, corrupt leaders.... whew, no shortage of things to keep poverty going.

I think the West especially is in for a massive and transformational societal shift in the coming years, but Thailand will most likey probably be a good 20 years behind that curve.

[goji]

It's not just the economy, but the aging population as well. I read somewhere where half of Thailand's population will be over fifty years old in a few years time.

A lot of Thailand's hopes for future economic growth seem to be pinned to the EEC (Eastern Economic Corridor) investment, intended to create new business platforms for high tech and other industries along its eastern seaboard. The only problem with this, is it takes $$money$$ (trillions) to complete the EEC expansion, and with the economy already set back to the 1960's, I wonder where they're going to get it.

Thailand has been running a fairly healthy balance of trade surplus, so they ought to be able to finance some infrastructure projects. The problem is corrupt governments invest the money very badly, so we get, for example, enormous railway stations and very few passengers due to an uncompetitive service & poor design.

However, the combination of an ageing population, poor education and corruption are never good for economic growth. They could partially correct for the ageing population by allowing permanent immigration from Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar. All countries where the people might integrate properly, if the right policies are in place.
Instead, they seem to permit temporary immigration of people from these countries to do all the undesirable jobs.
[Thankfully the temporary immigration includes lots of prostitutes, which is good, as the latest generation of young Thais are often too portly for my tastes].
Since older people tend not to set up innovative new businesses, what Thailand also needs to do is encourage permanent immigration & assimilation of people who are young, well educated and from areas where they might integrate properly.

However, I suspect the existing wealthy people prefer to make excess profits, rather than have the competition from new businesses.

Thankfully it isn't our problem to solve Thailand's economic issues. Many of us benefit from the low GDP, as it tends to lead to low cost services.
If Thailand did have a Lee Kuan Yew to sort out the economy, eventually prices would tend towards Singapore levels.

[StevieWonders]

The analyses above fail largely to focus on the microeconomic aspects, particularly rising household debt due to falling commodity prices. This Reuters article sets it out graphically - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-economy-debt-idINKBN2BR0R0