Russian Underwear Protest!

[Brad the Impala]

Russian documentary director Vitaly Mansky (Putin’s Witnesses, Gorbachev. Heaven) has revealed what happened earlier this week when he was detained by police outside the Russian secret service agency premises in Moscow.

In a picture stunt that was viewed by millions across Russia, Mansky was shown in front of the building holding up a pair of blue boxer shorts. This was to draw attention to allegations that surfaced this week that the Russian secret service (the FSB) tried to assassinate opposition leader Alexei Navalny by secreting a toxin on his underpants.

https://www.screendaily.com/news/russian-director-vitaly-mansky-explains-anti-government-underwear-protest/5155958.article?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=UK%20%20Europe%20Daily%2024%20Dec&utm_content=UK%20%20Europe%20Daily%2024%20Dec+CID_ e5eaaeadb959286a7da9a5b569e4a4f5&utm_source=Newsletter&utm_term=Russian%20director%20Vitaly%20Mansky%20ex plains%20anti-government%20underwear%20protest

[latintopxxx]

sooo misleading...when I read the headline I was expecting bel ami model types guys in underwear...with muscular legs and packages..

[Moses]

According to most trusted private Russian agency for researching public opinions "Levada Center" in Russia knows about Navalniy poisoning 78% of adult population.

From 78%:
30% thinks it was Navalniy own fabrication of poisoning (political show)
19% thinks it was provocation of one of Western security service (for example feedback from MI5 for Scripal)
15% thinks what it was Kremlin's operation (in absolute digits it means less than 20% of Russian population)
7% thinks what it was vendetta from one of "local heroes" of Navalniy's investigations of corruption (like governor of one of 89 parts of Russian Federation) <-- I am also in this group
6% thinks what it was result of fight within Russian opposition
1% thinks it was accidental poisoning not linked to any reason

One more interesting detail: for people Navalniy is so "nobody from nowhere" - Putin's trusting level did not changed by this "accident with Navalniy". Some part of population got information about Navalniy existence from this story (WTF? Who is this Navalniy and why so many news about him?).

[StevieWonders]

Isn’t “most trusted in Russia” an oxymoron?

[Moses]

Isn’t “most trusted in Russia” an oxymoron?

Yeah... something like "Liz II - Queen of Australia" or "Queen of Canada".

"Levada" is private agency. By the way: most western agencies are totally stupid when researches touching Russia. Even intelligence services are - do you remember how stupid was looking Obama when he spoke with medias about Russia on board of his aircraft in 2009? Only 4 sentences and all 4 were total bullshit

"regional country" - then he found what Russia has second strong army in world
"doesn't produce anything" - then he found what Russia is #1 grain exporter in World, holds 31% (in 2009) of European gas market, and is manufacturer of rocket engines for USA (and still is, closest time when Boing promised to show first prototype is end of 2021)
"population runs from country" - Russia was 3rd country in world by migration to country in 2009
"has no international influence" - in 2016 he started to talk what it was Russia who appointed president to US...

So, yes, when we are talking about Russia - "Levada" is for sure agency which knows much more about Russia and situation within country than any other research agency in world and maybe any intelligence service outside of Russia...


https://youtu.be/16K6m3Ua2nw

[Moses]

"Navalniy's pants" is mem already in Russia:

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[StevieWonders]

Yeah... something like "Liz II - Queen of Australia" or "Queen of Canada".You’re possibly confusing oxymoron with anachronism. We do have a Forum member who holds himself out as (or as dear Oscar might say “posing as” - although it was the Marquess of Queensbury who used that phrase) a teacher of English who may be able to help you. Were he teaching a member of my family I’d demand a refund but there you are.

[Moses]

Were he teaching a member of my family I’d demand a refund

It is pity what he isn't your teacher.

[StevieWonders]

It is pity what he isn't your teacher. Thank you Moses for brightening my Xmas Day. It seems you are not familiar with the use of the subjunctive in English so I suggest you follow this link

https://writingexplained.org/was-vs-were-difference

[arsenal]

Someone's good to go.

https://www.gradesaver.com/the-importance-of-being-earnest/study-guide/essay-questions/

[StevieWonders]

Someone's good to go.

https://www.gradesaver.com/the-importance-of-being-earnest/study-guide/essay-questions/Titania’s thought for today-
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And I can tell you it looks a damn sight more edible than the chicken which formed part of last evening’s execrable “Christmas Dinner” at Balcony for the 15 or so hardy souls who were there. The highlights of the meal were the two young male companions of the older Asian bloke in attendance.

[latintopxxx]

stevie..go copuylate with yourself....moses..love the clip...

[StevieWonders]

The background to the underpants protest is set out in this week’s Economist:

https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/01/02/russia-menaces-alexei-navalny-after-he-exposed-its-agents-ineptitude

Doubtless our Kremlin spokesman will be along shortly to set the record straight.

[Moses]

Doubtless our Kremlin spokesman

If you will discuss me instead of news one more time, you will be kicked out of forum. You are warned. I hope you understand my poor English.

[Moses]

Navalniy today said what ban of Trump's Twitter account is act of unacceptable censorship, huge mistake and emotional decision.

[Brad the Impala]

Navalniy today said what ban of Trump's Twitter account is act of unacceptable censorship, huge mistake and emotional decision.

I didn't think you gave any weight to what Navalny says, but now you are quoting him!

[Moses]

I didn't think you gave any weight to what Navalny says, but now you are quoting him!

No. I just show - everything is propaganda. And more than half year ago, when here first time was published that name I wrote: Navalniy is Kremlin's project.

[arsenal]

This is obviously western propaganda as Pooty Poots could never afford it. I am curious though. Who does it belong to.


https://news.sky.com/story/jailed-alexei-navalny-releases-investigation-into-vladimir-putins-1bn-palace-12192850

[Moses]

This is obviously western propaganda as Pooty Poots could never afford it. I am curious though. Who does it belong to.


https://news.sky.com/story/jailed-alexei-navalny-releases-investigation-into-vladimir-putins-1bn-palace-12192850

But state can afford it... so, who cares besides Navalniy?

This story is already long lasting comedy. "Poisoned" Navalny rans to Germany and lives there till January. At January he says "To ban Trump's twitter isn't democracy" and is kicked out of Germany to Russia in 3 days.

Here he publishes facts what everyone knows and trying to make one more scandal, but only West pretends to be interested in facts of Russian president residences, in Russia any person may open Google map or Yandex map and watch satellite images. Is West banned from Google maps?

By the way: do you want to discuss how great is freedom in Russian prisons and how high is level of democracy here? Jailed opponent of president and "famous dissident" is able to publish his next research from the prison...

Oh, do you really take this comedy seriously?

[Brad the Impala]

This story is already long lasting comedy. "Poisoned" Navalny rans to Germany and lives there till January. At January he says "To ban Trump's twitter isn't democracy" and is kicked out of Germany to Russia in 3 days.



He wan't kicked out of Germany and Merkel equally criticised the banning of Trump from Twitter!

Still it's all just a "Kremlin project", according to you.

[Moses]

Still it's all just a "Kremlin project", according to you.

Sure, correct. He is honey pot with 2 tasks:
- to attract people who are critics of Putin from Khodorkovsky to Navalny
- to make Russian opposition look pathetic and stupid... at past this job had Zhirinovsky with his liberal-democracy party, but now he is 70+ yo and is too old for such job. But Kremlin needs clowns in opposition to make it look stupid.

[Moses]

He wan't kicked out of Germany and Merkel equally criticised the banning of Trump from Twitter!


He was. How else you will explain fact: Navalny was discharged from hospital at October 12 and was living in Germany till January (who pays his and his press-secretary and other staff living there?).

Only when he told about lack of democracy he was expelled... even when Russia already announced him in "Wanted" list because he missed all his weekly check ups with police as conditionally released for his crimes (and before you will start to discuss his crimes: Hague court already checked this and found no political motivation in decision of Russian court about "Navalny case").

So Germany for sure knew (and had hopes?) what he will be arrested for violations of conditionally release from prison at time when they escorted him to airport in Berlin with police and blue flash lights. They (and Navalny) also announced his arrival to Russia in advance for to prepare scandal in Moscow airport.

[Brad the Impala]

Only when he told about lack of democracy he was expelled...

So he was thrown out of the country for expressing the same view as the leader of that country. Curiouser and Curiouser.

https://on.ft.com/2LFhNyz

[latintopxxx]

...and I see that crazy nancy and looser hilary are still carrying on about Russian control of orange man and the peaceful demonstration on capitol hill

[Moses]

Curiouser and Curiouser.

Any other ideas why he after hospital from the middle of October lived in Germany when knew about his obligations to check in in police every week? Russian court made decision about him only at December 29. Navalny had a lot of time to come here and have no problem with arrest - from October 12 till December 29. But he waited for scandal and only then came back? Or just was kicked off from Germany?

[cdnmatt]

I don't know, maybe he was busy putting preparations in place to protect himself against the next time the FSB tries to murder him.

[Brad the Impala]

Any other ideas why he after hospital from the middle of October lived in Germany when knew about his obligations to check in in police every week?

I imagine it takes a bit of time to recover from a poisoning, although of course some never recover.

You may have noticed that Europeans countries are not in the habit of deporting politicians back to countries with a suspect legal system.

[Moses]

You may have noticed that Europeans countries are not in the habit of deporting politicians back to countries with a suspect legal system.

Ah, so? Now I know why Assange is still living in the Embassy of Ecuador in London. 8 years already. Because "European countries are not in habit" . Sure-sure. Right, Mr. Snowden?

Any other fantasies and tales?

Note: in 2019 185 persons were departed to Russia for to be criminal charged.
European countries which cooperated with Russia in 2019: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Bosnia, Greece, Denmark, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Poland, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Germany, Montenegro.

Russia departed by requests of foreign countries 774 persons.

[arsenal]

https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-politicians/presidents/vladimir-putin-net-worth/

[Brad the Impala]

You may have noticed that Europeans countries are not in the habit of deporting politicians back to countries with a suspect legal system.


Ah, so? Now I know why Assange is still living in the Embassy of Ecuador in London. 8 years already. Because "European countries are not in habit" . Sure-sure.



1. Assange isn't a politician.

2. He hasn't been in the Embassy of Ecuador for the last nine months.

3. He hasn't been deported to a country with a suspect legal system

The relevance of your comment therefore escapes me.


Do you have any independent source that supports your claim that Germany deported Navalny? Or was the claim just a continuation of recycled state propaganda against Navalny?

[Moses]

1. Assange isn't a politician.



Well, Navalny is also not a politician - he has no own party or movement, nor program for changes. He is just criminal person who trying to revenge for confiscations of his money what he get when stole wood at north of Russia and late in post scam when he was in Moscow. Now is used by both sides: by Kremlin to make leaks and by West to make buzz in western press. Here in Russia as a politician he has zero weight (only 165 persons arrived to protest near court now, half of them were from medias). Nobody cares about him here. Tool for leaks, toy for propaganda.

He had most popularity at 2013 when he was candidate to Moscow mayor. He got 27% with support of right wing nationalists and left ultras. After that yea his popularity faded. Most of drops were in 2016 when he made scandal within opposition in demand to be #1 there. After this action he lost about 60% of his supporters, mostly intelligence.

Last drop in his story was in 2017. When he wanted to protest against something and city offered to him place for protest (up to 50000 persons) in the city center and even constructed scene there for him. It gave him no base for scandal. So at last day before meeting he dropped meeting and announced protest on the main city street where was historical carnival (first Sunday of September is Moscow's birthday). His adepts went to protest and destroyed carnival show. Navalny himself didn't appeared there.

After that story nobody within country count him politician, everyone knows he is just a provocator (we had such person at past about 100 years ago, google Gapon Russia).

Maybe Russia has to declare him "internal terrorist"? What do you think?

2017 smashed carnival:

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[Brad the Impala]

Do you have any independent source that supports your claim that Germany deported Navalny?

I'll take that as a No.

[Moses]

Do you have any independent source that supports your claim that Germany deported Navalny? Or was the claim just a continuation of recycled state propaganda against Navalny?


I'll take that as a No.

You are big boy long time already. Do you still trust in Santa and independent medias?

[arsenal]

Very very few countries are democratic. It takes a lot of energy and will power to be so. It's so much easier the other way..

[cdnmatt]

You are big boy long time already. Do you still trust in Santa and independent medias?


I only trust QAnon.

[Brad the Impala]

You are big boy long time already. Do you still trust in Santa and independent medias?


Sorry if you can't find any independent media that you trust. I think QAnon couldn't find any either.

In the meantime the BBC reports today:


Russian police have detained close aides of the jailed Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny, whose fans have flooded social media with calls to rally in support of him on Saturday.

Moscow police say any unauthorised demonstrations and provocations will be "immediately suppressed".

More than 55m people have watched his video about President Vladimir Putin's alleged luxury Black Sea palace.


Doesn't read like someone with "zero weight", but I guess that you are the one on the ground.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55765895

[Moses]

Sorry if you can't find any independent media that you trust. I think QAnon couldn't find any either.

In the meantime the BBC reports today:




Doesn't read like someone with "zero weight", but I guess that you are the one on the ground.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55765895

Give me some money and I will make 100-mln-viewers-post with pile of shit as a content.

Watch videos from streets: there are nobody to protest. Once again: in front of court what had intention to arrest Navalny was 165 (precise!) persons, more than half of them were journalists.

Tomorrow maybe will be some protests against quarantines, so Navalny maybe will use them. But I'm sure here as in Netherlands, Belgium, France or Germany police will act quite strong. Tomorrow will be positive temperatures, so them may use water-cannons like in Netherlands at past week.

[Moses]

Today in Hornet was posts from activist with invitation to protest today against Navalny arrest and against Putin homophobia. In the comments about 95% wrote "no. thank you". Motivation for to decline "With Putin we have homophobia, with Navalny and his right wing activists we will have the same homophobia plus disorders".

[StevieWonders]

Today in Hornet was posts from activist with invitation to protest today against Navalny arrest and against Putin homophobia. In the comments about 95% wrote "no. thank you". Motivation for to decline "With Putin we have homophobia, with Navalny and his right wing activists we will have the same homophobia plus disorders".
Yes,95% of members of SGT would feel the same way about Russia I would guess.

[cdnmatt]

Sure, correct. He is honey pot with 2 tasks:
- to attract people who are critics of Putin from Khodorkovsky to Navalny
- to make Russian opposition look pathetic and stupid... at past this job had Zhirinovsky with his liberal-democracy party, but now he is 70+ yo and is too old for such job. But Kremlin needs clowns in opposition to make it look stupid.

Your logic falls apart here. If this is true, and he's just a Kremlin project, then why would the Kremlin try to murder him?

That seems a bit counter-productive, don't you think?

[Moses]

Yes,95% of members of SGT would feel the same way about Russia I would guess.

It was post in Russian for Russians.

By the way: Moscow Stock Exchange index grew 0.7% at day of Navalny arrest.

[Moses]

Your logic falls apart here. If this is true, and he's just a Kremlin project, then why would the Kremlin try to murder him?

That seems a bit counter-productive, don't you think?

You again bringing here "Kremlin's murder". Only idiots here and some brainwashed by Western propaganda on West believes what it was Kremlin's attempt to kill. I already answered that question: Navalny annoys a lot of people in Russia: businessman (including oligarchs), some regional elites. Also is known what Putin doesn't like him. So there are a lot of possibilities who may be involved into attempt to kill him, but for sure it wasn't Kremlin or Putin. I'm sure in 99% what it was somebody's "private project": for to bring good news to Putin or for to resolve own problems - I don't know.

Just for sure it wasn't "official task": here - on Russian territory - "official tasks" are always successful: just leave a little bit of ricin in bedroom and "client" will never wake up and you will find no traces - it will looks like a heart attack.

[cdnmatt]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5sjosRF7-M&t=126s

So that phone call he had with an FSB agent who admitted the attempted murder is just propaganda?

Ok, than another question. If he's just a tool to help benefit the Kremlin by showcasing how dumb the opposition is, why arrest him and throw him in jail for 30 days? How is he supposed to make the Kremlin look good by acting stupid when he's just sitting in a jail cell?

This is the problem with conspiracy theories. They are so hard to keep factual.

[Moses]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5sjosRF7-M&t=126s

So that phone call he had with an FSB agent who admitted the attempted murder is just propaganda?

Ok, than another question. If he's just a tool to help benefit the Kremlin by showcasing how dumb the opposition is, why arrest him and throw him in jail for 30 days? How is he supposed to make the Kremlin look good by acting stupid when he's just sitting in a jail cell?

This is the problem with conspiracy theories. They are so hard to keep factual.

How do you know what he is "FSB agent"? Because Navalny says so?

Second answer: he is honey pot, "Navalny case" will stop real opposition.

When he and his brother were charged for crime, his brother got real prison, Navalny got conditional release. When people from his close circles receive 3-5-7 years in prison, Navalny got just 10-15-30 days of arrest and communal works. Google "Gapon Russia".

By the way "throw to jail" sounds like a comedy. "Throwed to jail" Navalny posts announcements in internet, eats free caviar, watches TV and plays games - check interviews with foreign football fans what were "throwed" to the same "jail" where Navalny was spending his 30 days.

[StevieWonders]

You again bringing here "Kremlin's murder". Only idiots here and some brainwashed by Western propaganda on West believes what it was Kremlin's attempt to kill. I already answered that question: Navalny annoys a lot of people in Russia: businessman (including oligarchs), some regional elites. Also is known what Putin doesn't like him. So there are a lot of possibilities who may be involved into attempt to kill him, but for sure it wasn't Kremlin or Putin. I'm sure in 99% what it was somebody's "private project": for to bring good news to Putin or for to resolve own problems - I don't know.

Just for sure it wasn't "official task": here - on Russian territory - "official tasks" are always successful: just leave a little bit of ricin in bedroom and "client" will never wake up and you will find no traces - it will looks like a heart attack.
What an alluring picture you paint of life in Russia.

[Moses]

What an alluring picture you paint of life in Russia.

Well, I'm cynic and have no illusions what secret services in world smells Chanel #5 or defecates by roses. They are humans and human is the most weak element of any chain. To compromise and blackmail is most cheap and preferable method of any secret service. Torture and kill - second one.

And to those who will want to say something about "Russian habits" and "shine glorious American agents" I have just one word: Guantanamo. Is it already closed? Obama had 8 years and promised it many times.

[StevieWonders]

Well, I'm cynic.you’re not the only cynic here but let me assure that when it comes to Russia I’m more of a sceptic.

[Moses]

but let me assure that when it comes to Russia I’m more of a sceptic.

Sure-sure, you are living in Russia for many years already and know everything here.

[StevieWonders]

Sure-sure, you are living in Russia for many years already and know everything here.
Quite so

[Nirish guy]

Well, Navalny is also not a politician - he has no own party or movement,........Here in Russia as a politician he has zero weight (only 165 persons arrived to protest near court now, half of them were from medias). Nobody cares about him here]

Hmmm it seems a few more people than you suggest seem to care for him perhaps.......well if you don't do the usual and just cry "western propaganda" that is.......

So either 500 turned up if Russia authorities are to be believed or closer 3000 if Sota ( an Independent media source) reports correctly or either 4000 or 15000 in Moscow depending who you wish to believe? Along with rallies in other cities planned and lots of sharing of stuff re him on line etc too it seems ?

Not exactly "nobody cares about him" as was suggested above perhaps ?

Copied from that western propaganda rag ....the BBC ....

"Dozens of people have been detained as police try to stop nationwide protests in Russia in support of jailed opposition politician Alexei Navalny. Police are also breaking up groups of his supporters gathered in the capital Moscow, ahead of a protest there. Thousands of people have already taken part in rallies in Russia's Far East, where there were also arrests."

Video in the lins....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55778334

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55778334

[arsenal]

This has probably run it's course now. We all think Russia is gruesome and Moses insists it's lovely. No point arguing about it.

[Nirish guy]

This has probably run it's course now. We all think Russia is gruesome and Moses insists it's lovely. No point arguing about it.

Thats not the case with me anyway, I've no real opinion that in either way. Personally i was just flagging up the apparent difference in the facts and opinion that Moses was presenting compared to what else appearing to be visible on some (western) media.

[cdnmatt]

This has probably run it's course now. We all think Russia is gruesome and Moses insists it's lovely. No point arguing about it.

And here I was all this time thinking this thread was about a bunch of young, cute Russian gay lads protesting the wearing of underwear, and frolicking the streets of Moscow butt naked for everyone to be dazzled by.

[Brad the Impala]

This has probably run it's course now. We all think Russia is gruesome and Moses insists it's lovely. No point arguing about it.

If it's run it's course people will stop posting. The fact that it may no longer of interest to you is not a determinant of its future!

[Moses]

Hmmm it seems a few more people than you suggest seem to care for him perhaps.......well if you don't do the usual and just cry "western propaganda" that is.......

So either 500 turned up if Russia authorities are to be believed or closer 3000 if Sota ( an Independent media source) reports correctly or either 4000 or 15000 in Moscow depending who you wish to believe? Along with rallies in other cities planned and lots of sharing of stuff re him on line etc too it seems ?

Not exactly "nobody cares about him" as was suggested above perhaps ?

Copied from that western propaganda rag ....the BBC ....

"Dozens of people have been detained as police try to stop nationwide protests in Russia in support of jailed opposition politician Alexei Navalny. Police are also breaking up groups of his supporters gathered in the capital Moscow, ahead of a protest there. Thousands of people have already taken part in rallies in Russia's Far East, where there were also arrests."

Video in the lins....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55778334

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55778334

I told yesterday, today will be protests. What's wrong?

Oh, I see. You think it is somehow linked to Navalny. It is not. Listen what crowd chanting, you will hear it even you don't know Russian. They are chanting "Putin please go out!" or just "Putin go out!" - "Pu-tin U-kho-dee!" and other such things. No one word about Navalny.

Now you see: Russian is democratic country where people are able public protests. And nobody call them "internal terrorist"... at least yet.

Do you want to know how real protests here looks like? Not these by marginals, but real crowd protest... look on the picture. It is square in front of Kremlin. That you will see when majority will protests. Compare with pictures what you see now...

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[arsenal]

"If it's run it's course people will stop posting. The fact that it may no longer of interest to you is not a determinant of its future! "

You are of course absolutely right. Any member can trudge back to the start and slalom down the piste as many times as they like. But the course won't change, it goes to the same place and through the same gates.

[StevieWonders]

You think it is somehow linked to Navalny. It is not. Listen what crowd chanting, you will hear it even you don't know Russian. They are chanting "Putin please go out!" or just "Putin go out!" - "Pu-tin U-kho-dee!" and other such things. No one word about Navalny. The love that dare not speak its name?

[Brad the Impala]

Tomorrow maybe will be some protests against quarantines, so Navalny maybe will use them.



Oh, I see. You think it is somehow linked to Navalny. It is not. Listen what crowd chanting, you will hear it even you don't know Russian. They are chanting "Putin please go out!" or just "Putin go out!" - "Pu-tin U-kho-dee!" and other such things. No one word about Navalny.



Russian police have detained more than 3,000 people in a crackdown on protests in support of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny, monitors say.
Tens of thousands of people defied a heavy police presence to join some of the largest rallies against President Vladimir Putin in years.
In Moscow, riot police were seen beating and dragging away protesters.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55778334

[Moses]

Russian police have detained more than 3,000 people in a crackdown on protests in support of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny, monitors say.
This is propaganda. Navalny doesn't worth mass protests, nobody will gather for him in masses. You may search for thousands videos from protest and you will see only "Putin" on banners and hear only "Putin" in chanting. Nobody care about freedom of criminal Navalny.



Tens of thousands of people defied a heavy police presence to join some of the largest rallies against President Vladimir Putin in years.

This is correct. Some says what it is most big protest since 2017, some says what it is most big protest since 2013.

You may ask "why now"? Govt lifted restrictions for mass gathering since Jan 22. Yesterday was first day off after lifting. Why it is biggets since 2013? COVID. People are pissed off by restrictions, quarantine, job loss.



In Moscow, riot police were seen beating and dragging away protesters.
this is correct also

[Moses]

This picture is from Moscow - protesters near isolator, where is Navalny now.

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Isolator - special place where arrested are waiting for court.
As per news there were only about 300 people, more half of them were journalists and TV. This shows how much people care about Navalny's destiny here.

[Brad the Impala]

From todays FT.


Two years ago, a Russian friend told me that he thought that Alexei Navalny posed a serious danger to Vladimir Putin. I was sceptical. Russia had weathered the international condemnation and economic sanctions imposed after its annexation of Crimea in 2014. The country had just staged a successful World Cup. President Putin seemed well entrenched in the Kremlin.

But my friend was right. Through his bravery, determination and investigative flair, Mr Navalny has galvanised the Russian opposition. He has survived an attempt to kill him and returned to Russia to face arrest, imprisonment and, possibly, death. His example inspired mass protests across the country over the weekend. Whether Mr Navalny ultimately succeeds or fails, he now represents the most dangerous threat that Mr Putin has faced in the two decades since he took power.

https://on.ft.com/3qSYC2Y

[Moses]

Alexei Navalny posed a serious danger to Vladimir Putin. I was sceptical

Bullshit from propaganda. Navalny was serious danger about 2011-2013. But at 2013 he made many mistakes: fighting within opposition for leadership, union with ultra-right and nationalists. In 2013 at time of election on the Moscow mayor seat he was on peak. Now he is nobody from nowhere - mostly like a sect for high school students and people who like conspiracy.

In 2014 he told what annexation of Crimea is right and correct movement and in one moment lost about 50% of his supporters.

At Saturday you already saw: about 100 000 protesters against Putin and about 300 protesters for to support Navalny.

Remember: now one only real competitor from opposition to Putin exists - Khodorkovsky. Unfortunately for West Khodorkovsky is rich, independent and educated. Most important - he is independent. That why West tries to play with Navalny card - Navalny depends on grants and is already tamed by West.

[Nirish guy]

Bullshit from propaganda. ....... At Saturday you already saw: about 100 000 protesters against Putin and about 300 protesters for to support Navalny.


Surely even you would accept Moses that at least some of those 100,000 who protest against Putin may perhaps also support Navalny. It seems odd that out of 100,000 people you're suggesting a mere 300 support him.

And again would you not agree that just because they're not waving banners with Navalny's name on them doesn't mean they are not sympathetic with his cause and wish to protest their feelings as to his treatment otherwise why did the people start protesting on his arrest and not weeks / months before ( and yes I know there were restrictions on meetings before that re Covid etc but I doubt that would stop 100,000 people if that felt strongly enough about something perhaps no ?)

But to instantly dismiss 100,000 people on the streets as them just out to protest Putin and nothing else, when they're out immediately after Navalny's arrest seems a little off too. I'm sure you're right that their main protest IS about Putin but Navalny's arrest does "appear" to have been a catalyst in them deciding to protest - dont you think ??

[Moses]

Surely even you would accept Moses that at least some of those 100,000 who protest against Putin may perhaps also support Navalny. It seems odd that out of 100,000 people you're suggesting a mere 300 support him.

And again would you not agree that just because they're not waving banners with Navalny's name on them doesn't mean they are not sympathetic with his cause and wish to protest their feelings as to his treatment otherwise why did the people start protesting on his arrest and not weeks / months before ( and yes I know there were restrictions on meetings before that re Covid etc but I doubt that would stop 100,000 people if that felt strongly enough about something perhaps no ?)

But to instantly dismiss 100,000 people on the streets as them just out to protest Putin and nothing else, when they're out immediately after Navalny's arrest seems a little off too. I'm sure you're right that their main protest IS about Putin but Navalny's arrest does "appear" to have been a catalyst in them deciding to protest - dont you think ??

I already told: "immediately" after Navalny arrest is just because they lifted ban for public gathering in most cities from Jan 22. Jan 23 was first Saturday (typical day for protests) after Jan 22.

Pity you don't understand Russian. Just open youtube and find somebody who will translate to you. Almost all interviews started from "I'm here not for Navalny but against Putin". To support Navalny is "bad taste" here: he cooperates with right wing and nationalists and this is like a stigma here - he will never have majority. Russia lost 40 mln in IIWW.

Navalny on "Russian march". Behind him in Russian "Russia is owned by Russians" and "Russian March". Look at his right hand. He will never have support of general public after it.

10690

It is 2014 or 2013... Navalny marching with nationalists (yellow-white-black). No Corona yet here, but many hiding their faces behind of masks
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Wanna be sure what yellow-white-black is bad? Look here:

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[Nirish guy]

OK Moses, I'll take your word for that and assume you are correct.

So, assuming then that the people WERENT there as a sign of support for Navalny but to protest against Putin what is your view about that ?

So will the protests concern Putin in any way and / or perhaps threaten his position or will he simply ignore this ( small by Russian standards) group of protestors and simply carry on with "business as usual" or instead of 100,000 protestors would it take 1000000 protestors or is the number actually irrelevant and no matter HOW many people protest will it remain "business as usual" there just with Putin being secure in his position - no matter what ?

[Moses]

OK Moses, I'll take your word for that and assume you are correct.

So, assuming then that the people WERENT there as a sign of support for Navalny but to protest against Putin what is your view about that ?

So will the protests concern Putin in any way and / or perhaps threaten his position or will he simply ignore this ( small by Russian standards) group of protestors and simply carry on with "business as usual" or instead of 100,000 protestors would it take 1000000 protestors or is the number actually irrelevant and no matter HOW many people protest will it remain "business as usual" there just with Putin being secure in his position - no matter what ?

Despite of stereotype "no democracy in Russia" here it exists, but not that directly as you are adapted to see. It has own specifics. Putin wants to be popular - it is for his safety and he knows it.

When at past he made personal income of every Russian growing (5-10 times, depends on region), he was very popular: at some moments he had support of 80%+ population. When oil made export less profitable and income went down his popularity faded, but it is still above 50% (around 60% now). Virus gave many problems and made some frustrations. That why so many fast steps and PR about vaccine.

Putin controls his popularity via regional governors - they have KPIs, whithin its are 2 points - level of trust in governor in region and level of trust to Putin in region. These who had both KPI below 50% will be changed - by law president may send to resignation any governor and to declare new elections. Putin uses this tool quite widely: even if all governors will have both KPI above 50%, last 5 of them in ranking from 89 will be dismissed by results of each year. For to measure happiness and approval level usually Kremlin uses auditors from TOP-4, most often PwC, sometimes Gallup.

So currently Kremlin will order measurement, then will talk and maybe dismiss some governors where protests are more strong than average and where happiness is lower than average.

[Nirish guy]

I actually quite like the idea of running a Country based on KPI's like that - hell if we allowed our politicians here to either stay or go according to their KPI's there wouldn't be many of them left in their jobs thats for sure !

[Brad the Impala]

Thanks Moses, your responses on Navalny are interesting as a balance to the reporting in the part of the media that I do(mostly) trust!

[StevieWonders]

Thanks Moses, your responses on Navalny are interesting as a balance to the reporting in the part of the media that I do(mostly) trust! There's a lengthy measured opinion piece in this week's Spectator that broadly agrees with Moses. It ends:
"Seen solely from the point of view of electoral arithmetic, the smart strategy for the Kremlin would be to let Navalny walk free and continue its policy of officially pretending he doesn’t exist. But the electorate is not the constituency that keeps Putin in power — it’s the FSB. And the hard men of the Lubyanka have made it amply clear that they are not in a forgiving mood."

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/navalny-and-putin-the-next-chapter

[Moses]

There's a lengthy measured opinion piece in this week's Spectator that broadly agrees with Moses.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/navalny-and-putin-the-next-chapter

The main mistake in article: United Russia isn't Putin's party. It is leading party (at least in current electoral cycle), but it isn't president's party - president here can't be member of any party. United Russia supports Putin, but all other parliament parties including opposition also supports him more or less - he is popular here. Parties are fighting each other in parliament for laws in accordance with their programs, but all supports most of Putin's decrees: for to became not order but law they should be voted in parliament in both chambers, and at past 10 years here were only 2 or 3 cases when decree was declined by parliament.

Despite media at West write about his dictatorship, Putin has approval and support of majority - in parties and in population.

[StevieWonders]

The main mistake in article: United Russia isn't Putin's party. It is leading party (at least in current electoral cycle), but it isn't president's party - president here can't be member of any party.A national leader can control a political party without being a member - plenty of examples of British aristocrats from the 17th Century onwards doing it. As well, any opinion poll’s results can be manipulated by the questions it asks and the order in which it asks them so they’re at best an indicator of probabilities, nothing more.

[StevieWonders]

Here’s a masterclass in getting the answer you want from opinion polling

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ic6c3WvwbAw&ab_channel=TheFallaciousTrumpPodcast

[StevieWonders]

The more I read your explanations of political life in Russia, Moses, the more I'm struck by the parallels with a certain SE Asian country. Patronage networks, shadowy figures controlling political parties, endemic corruption, vast concentrations of wealth, political assasinations of opposition politicians.

[Moses]

The more I read your explanations of political life in Russia, Moses, the more I'm struck by the parallels with a certain SE Asian country. Patronage networks, shadowy figures controlling political parties, endemic corruption, vast concentrations of wealth, political assasinations of opposition politicians.

Why you limiting your imagination by Asia? Look at US. Few families what shadow controlling whole country. Just look at Kennedy. Should we talk about Rothschilds when we are talking about concentration of wealth?

Here one more theme for you to discuss. Somebody at West had read too much historical books. Lenin. He was in Germany, then was returned by German secret service to Russia and supplied by money. Everyone knows what was late in 1917. Now Germany again returning one more idiot to Russia and pays grants to him.

[StevieWonders]

Why you limiting your imagination by Asia? Look at US. Few families what shadow controlling whole country. Just look at Kennedy. Should we talk about Rothschilds when we are talking about concentration of wealth?

Here one more theme for you to discuss. Somebody at West had read too much historical books. Lenin. He was in Germany, then was returned by German secret service to Russia and supplied by money. Everyone knows what was late in 1917. Now Germany again returning one more idiot to Russia and pays grants to him.I do love a man with a great obsession.

[Moses]

https://www.ft.com/content/f1a35c6f-d5f7-4550-8539-5a630b381648 finally ....


A mistaken analysis leads to bad policy on Russia

[Brad the Impala]

You must be pleased to find this opinion expressed in the western press. Although, for balance, I would point out both that it is only a letter written to the FT, rather than a news or editorial comment, and that it it describes Navalny as a good and brave man, which doesn't quite tie in with your previous comments.

[Moses]

Although, for balance, I would point out both that it is only a letter written to the FT

At least author really spend time here and isn't "analytic" who sucks his "forecast" from the middle finger...


describes Navalny as a good and brave man, which doesn't quite tie in with your previous comments.
What? I never told what Navalny is coward, why you wrote "brave"? Navalny is nationalist and populist, nobody from nowhere and controlled by grants toy of West. I'm ready to repeat that. Western propaganda describing him as a leader of opposition, but he is not leader - he is most loud populist, who earns his grants by manufacturing scandal after scandal for Western medias.

[StevieWonders]

At least author really spend time here and isn't "analytic" who sucks his "forecast" from the middle finger...But how long would he be allowed to spend time in Russia if he didn’t suck up to Putin?

We have expats here who suck up to the current prime minister but that doesn’t make them experts on Thailand.

[dinagam]

I'm ready to repeat that. Western propaganda describing him as a leader of opposition, but he is not leader - he is most loud populist, who earns his grants by manufacturing scandal after scandal for Western medias.

He reminds me of Juan Guaido of Venezuela.

[Moses]

He reminds me of Juan Guaido of Venezuela.

Guiado is also twice criminal?

[dinagam]

Indeed he's more than twice the criminal for what he has been doing to the proud country of Venezuela.

[StevieWonders]

Indeed he's more than twice the criminal for what he has been doing to the proud country of Venezuela.Single-handed?

[cdnmatt]

From what media here is reporting, protests are looking to be gettins serious.

[Moses]

From what media here is reporting, protests are looking to be gettins serious.

Seems no: at Jan 31 was already less people than at Jan 23. And by any means level of tensions is far less than at times of BLM actions at past summer.

[Moses]

Indeed he's more than twice the criminal for what he has been doing to the proud country of Venezuela.

I doubt what stealing wood or fraud of perfume company are actions for country.

[StevieWonders]

Seems no: at Jan 31 was already less people than at Jan 23. And by any means level of tensions is far less than at times of BLM actions at past summer.You’re suggesting that Russia and the USA are so similar in every way that there’s some sort of equivalence between wholly white protesters in Russia and BLM protesters in the USA?

[Moses]

You’re suggesting that Russia and the USA are so similar in every way that there’s some sort of equivalence between wholly white protesters in Russia and BLM protesters in the USA?

Do you see any word "white" in my post? I wrote about level of tensions.

[StevieWonders]

Do you see any word "white" in my post? I wrote about level of tensions. You’re suggesting that Russia and the USA are so similar in every way that there’s some sort of equivalence between protesters in Russia and protesters in the USA?

[Moses]

You’re suggesting that Russia and the USA are so similar in every way that there’s some sort of equivalence between protesters in Russia and protesters in the USA?

I suggest what protests are normal for any country. And another idea: at time of COVID people in world are tending to protest because normal life is ruined by virus everywhere.

[StevieWonders]

I suggest what protests are normal for any country. And another idea: at time of COVID people in world are tending to protest because normal life is ruined by virus everywhere.I’d have thought the Belarusian protests were more equivalent to the Russian protests - they are both about politics and their political systems are much more similar than a comparison to racial protests in the USA.

[Moses]

I’d have thought the Belarusian protests were more equivalent to the Russian protests - they are both about politics and their political systems are much more similar than a comparison to racial protests in the USA.

BLM isn't racial. WIKI:

Black Lives Matter (BLM) is a decentralized political and social movement protesting against incidents of police brutality and all racially motivated violence against black people.

By the way: nobody protests here "against political system". But some dreams to change president.

Here are about 40 political parties and is much more diversity of political views than in bipolar US. Lukashenko from Belarus got power at time of USSR fall. Putin was elected. The only thing what you may to compare is time of ruling: Lukashenko 26, Lee Hsien Loong 16, Putin 16 (21 with time of PM), Merkel 15, Netanyahu 15.

[StevieWonders]

BLM isn't racial. WIKI:


By the way: nobody protests here "against political system". But some dreams to change president.

Here are about 40 political parties and is much more diversity of political views than in bipolar US. Lukashenko from Belarus got power at time of USSR fall. Putin was elected. The only thing what you may to compare is time of ruling: Lukashenko 26, Lee Hsien Loong 16, Putin 16 (21 with time of PM), Merkel 15, Netanyahu 15.I do love a man with a sense of humour. However I take at face value your assurance that there is no equivalence between the political and social systems of Russia and the USA, with which I agree wholeheartedly.

[arsenal]

Check the news you two. New developments.

[Moses]

However I take at face value your assurance that there is no equivalence between the political and social systems of Russia and the USA, with which I agree wholeheartedly.

Sure, here nobody calls protesters "internal terrorists".

[StevieWonders]

Sure, here nobody calls protesters "internal terrorists".Indeed and I shall remind you of it often.

[cdnmatt]

heh, they threw him back in prison for 2.5 years for breaking probation of all things. His defense was that he was in a coma in Germany after a military grade merder attempt, but the court wasn't having it, so back to prison for 2.5 years he goes. Sure enough, new protests country wide now breaking out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2af0b4mbZPo

[Moses]

heh, they threw him back in prison for 2.5 years for breaking probation of all things. His defense was that he was in a coma in Germany after a military grade merder attempt, but the court wasn't having it, so back to prison for 2.5 years he goes. Sure enough, new protests country wide now breaking out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2af0b4mbZPo

Navalny was discharged from hospital at October 12. So it should be expected what they will close him behand the bars and I wrote about it month ago. Why he should be exclusion from the law?

[Moses]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-politics-navalny/putins-approval-rating-holds-steady-despite-navalny-crackdown-poll-idUSKBN2A429G

Putin's approval rating dropped 1% - from 65% to 64% after "Navalny's story"

Trusting to Navalny raised and now is 5% of Russian population.

Do you need other numbers?

[StevieWonders]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-politics-navalny/putins-approval-rating-holds-steady-despite-navalny-crackdown-poll-idUSKBN2A429G

Putin's approval rating dropped 1% - from 65% to 64% after "Navalny's story"FFS Moses, can’t your guy do a 69?

[StevieWonders]

From The Times, Thursday:
10705

[StevieWonders]

For those with an interest in the Navalny phenomenon I recommend this podcast. In summary:
Short-term Navalny’s fucked
Longer term Putin’s fucked

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9hY2Nlc3MuYWNhc3QuY29tL3Jzcy90aGVyYWNobW FucmV2aWV3L2RlZmF1bHQ/episode/MWU5NGE4MjUtNDUwNi00ZjIzLTk0MTAtMDRiOTY1YzE4MzQx?h l=en-AU&ved=2ahUKEwjbyvTT_NHuAhU0muYKHarYDgwQieUEegQIBxAF&ep=6

I’m reminded of Zhou Enlai’s answer when asked about the effects of the French Revolution

[arsenal]

China, like Russia has a habit of cannibalizing it's former leaders. Zhou had lost almost all power and Mao was about to get done so he started the cultural revolution.

Communism. For the people.

[StevieWonders]

China, like Russia has a habit of cannibalizing it's former leaders. Yeltsin did a deal with Putin not to be prosecuted in retirement in return for a peaceful transfer of power. I wonder who will do the same for Putin when his time comes.

[Moses]

like Russia has a habit of cannibalizing it's former leaders

bullshit and stereotypes... like "all Russians drink vodka and play balalayka"... no one leader in Russia has been threated bad.

Last USSR leader Gorbachev is still alive and somehow active. Archive and Gorbachov-fund are working in Moscow.

10709


Yeltsin gave his power to Putin in 2000. Yeltsin died, and now in his home-city opened memorial complex including museum and fund. https://yeltsin.ru/

10707

10708


If speak about USSR then last (and only) leader who was threaten bad in his life was Hruschov in 1960s.

[StevieWonders]

bullshit and stereotypes... like "all Russians drink vodka and play balalayka"... no one leader in Russia has been threated bad. Is it true you can only tell the women because they plait the hair under their arms?

[arsenal]

Well to be fair Moses most USSR leaders died in office. Difficult to prosecute a corpse.

[Jellybean]

Well to be fair Moses most USSR leaders died in office. Difficult to prosecute a corpse.

Ah, but it is not unheard of arsenal. There is the horrific account of the Lord Protector, Oliver Cromwell, who died in 1658, but after the monarchy was restored under King Charles II in 1660, Cromwell was exhumed in 1661, tried for treason and executed.

10715
The posthumous execution of the bodies of Oliver Cromwell, John Bradshaw, and Henry Ireton, from a contemporaneous print.


Cromwell's body was exhumed from Westminster Abbey on 30 January 1661, the 12th anniversary of the execution of Charles I, and was subjected to a posthumous execution, as were the remains of John Bradshaw and Henry Ireton. (The body of Cromwell's daughter was allowed to remain buried in the Abbey.) His body was hanged in chains at Tyburn, London, and then thrown into a pit. His head was cut off and displayed on a pole outside Westminster Hall until 1685. Afterwards, it was owned by various people, including a documented sale in 1814 to Josiah Henry Wilkinson,[145][146] and it was publicly exhibited several times before being buried beneath the floor of the antechapel at Sidney Sussex College, Cambridge, in 1960.[143][147] The exact position was not publicly disclosed, but a plaque marks the approximate location . . .

Source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Cromwell#Death_and_posthumous_execution)

[Moses]

So many strange things about Russia Western medias distributing now...
Example https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/alexei-navalny-protesters-crammed-into-cells-as-online-flashmob-wears-red-in-tribute-2v50kv08j Red clothes of solidarity with wife of Navalny. :D :dash:

One of "news" sucked from middle finger...

When artists in theater have to show noise of the crowded place on the stage, they starting to say "what to say when have nothing to say" - all together their words sounds almost like "white noise" - visitors hear only "noise of crowded place". Medias now do the same - they have no news but should to publish something. So they starting to publish "what to say when have nothing to say". So appears red clothes of solidarity :)) - total bullshit...

By the way: Volkov - leader of "Navalny's administration" today announced - they cancel all protests till "warm time" - late spring.

Western media now will have even less sources for gossips. Should we expect some "middle-finger-news" like "Russian wears blue boxer pants as a sign of support to Navalny"?

[Nirish guy]

Yeltsin did a deal with Putin not to be prosecuted in retirement in return for a peaceful transfer of power. I wonder who will do the same for Putin when his time comes.

Whoever he tells to do that .... as they wont get to BE the "next" unless he decides it I'm sure !

[StevieWonders]

So many strange things about Russia Western medias distributing now...
Example https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/alexei-navalny-protesters-crammed-into-cells-as-online-flashmob-wears-red-in-tribute-2v50kv08j Red clothes of solidarity with wife of Navalny.Absolutely outrageous, stereotyping women as only interested in fashion. By way of balance, Moses, perhaps you could list the Top Twenty women active in Russian politics and government today - at the level of say Angela Merkel, Ursula von der Leyden, or Theresa May?

[Moses]

Absolutely outrageous, stereotyping women as only interested in fashion.

Well, then The Times should wait about week: in a week whole China will support Navalny and demonstrate solidarity with his wife.

[StevieWonders]

An interesting assessment of what Navalny might mean for the West - https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2021/2/5/what-putin-nemesis-navalny-is-and-what-he-isnt