Travel to Thailand...Help is on the way!....Moderna Covid Vaccine 94.5% Effective

[Manforallseasons]

Moderna's coronavirus vaccine is 94.5% effective, according to company data

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/health/Covid-moderna-vaccine.html

[Moses]

5 of 95 sick were vaccinated

[goji]

I suspect the way in which a vaccine is most likely to change Thai policy would be when Thailand has it's own population vaccinated.

I'm not aware of Thailand having signed a supply contract for either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.

They have signed a deal to manufacture and distribute the Astra Zeneca "Oxford" vaccine. I'd expect an announcement on that soon.
Based on probability of infection I estimate they should have enough infections to declare shortly.

[latintopxxx]

they will simply buy it from india like the copy cat viagra and cialis....

[StevieWonders]

Some people are missing the most important point of these two recent stories - good old human ingenuity has created an entirely new and very promising class of vaccines. It wasn’t that long ago that posters led by CDNMATT (where is he now?) were loudly declaiming that a vaccine would never be found, look at HIV (as if all viruses are the same), blah blah blah. Results in carefully controlled tests using hand-picked volunteers will need to be replicated in large populations to confirm these vaccines but it’s looking hopeful.

On the downside the manufacture and to-end-user supply chain of vaccines highly susceptible to corruption unless kept in very cold storage pose new challenges that we won’t wholly overcome in a few weeks or months.

[goji]

they will simply buy it from india like the copy cat viagra and cialis....

Both Viagra and Cialis patents have expired in many countries, so generic versions can be perfectly legitimate.
A new vaccine is a different matter.

[arsenal]

I said from the very beginning that a vaccine would be here before the end of the year. Few here agreed with me.

[Moses]

Both Viagra and Cialis patents have expired in many countries, so generic versions can be perfectly legitimate.
A new vaccine is a different matter.

Canada already announced what if some patents will stay on the way to public health they will breach them without any hesitations

[Moses]

Some people are missing the most important point of these two recent stories - good old human ingenuity has created an entirely new and very promising class of vaccines.

If you are talking about mRNA then "new class" was invented in 1961.

[StevieWonders]

If you are talking about mRNA then "new class" was invented in 1961.
Perhaps you could list the existing mRNA vaccines in common use?

[Dodger]

I said from the very beginning that a vaccine would be here before the end of the year. Few here agreed with me.

I still don't.

There probably won't be a vaccine available to the public here, or anywhere else for that fact, until 2021.

[Moses]

Perhaps you could list the existing mRNA vaccines in common use?

mRNA is method (if talk about creation of some substance), it may be used for vaccine creation or some medical drug or just another substance for biochemistry

so answer to your question is sure: influenza, Ebola, Toxoplasmose... you can read more here: Chahal JS, Kahn OF, Cooper CL, et al. Dendrimer-RNA nanoparticles generate protective immunity against lethal Ebola, H1N1 influenza, and Toxoplasma gondii challenges with a single dose. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2016; 113(29): E4133-42

... or in easy reading here: https://www.phgfoundation.org/documents/rna-vaccines-an-introduction-briefing-note.pdf - Introduction on RNA vaccines by Cambrige UNI, 2018

[goji]

They still need to publish data for all aspects of the testing, including side effects.
The regulators need to approve the vaccine.
Then it needs to be manufactured and distributed.

There is not much visibility about timescales for these steps, but it seems POSSIBLE that a few people might be vaccinated in 2020.

I suspect most of us will be waiting until well into 2021.
I also suspect that what matters for travel to Thailand is the deployment of a vaccine in Thailand.
After all, if a vaccine is 90 or 95% effective in preventing covid, there will still be some people with covid in western countries, until a sufficient number are vaccinated to generate a level of herd immunity.

[Marc K]

The day that 60+% of Thais and 60+% of prospective travelers to Thailand are vaccinated with a 90+%-effective vaccine is the day we can all celebrate! The doors to the Kingdom will sure spring open. When would such a milestone be reached? Anybody's guess. Mine is very-late-2021, maybe in time for high-season.

I think the real question, sorry for duplicating an earlier post, is what we would likely find there when our airport coach reaches the Jomtien terminal.

I took my first foray, since the pandemic struck in March, by air to SF two weeks ago. I found an SF which I barely recognized. The most shocking impression was to see so many storefronts boarded up, both in the neighborhoods as well as in downtown Union Sq, as a result of closures as well as fear of post-election unrest. It was a bit of a dystopian visit. Luckily now I am safely back home.

[StevieWonders]

mRNA is method (if talk about creation of some substance), it may be used for vaccine creation or some medical drug or just another substance for biochemistry

so answer to your question is sure: influenza, Ebola, Toxoplasmose... you can read more here: Chahal JS, Kahn OF, Cooper CL, et al. Dendrimer-RNA nanoparticles generate protective immunity against lethal Ebola, H1N1 influenza, and Toxoplasma gondii challenges with a single dose. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2016; 113(29): E4133-42

... or in easy reading here: https://www.phgfoundation.org/documents/rna-vaccines-an-introduction-briefing-note.pdf - Introduction on RNA vaccines by Cambrige UNI, 2018As many articles point out (including the following one) it has been a long road to develop a viable mRNA vaccine and it’s only recent developments that seem to be promising. As Dr Wikipedia points out there are no mRNA vaccines currently approved for general human use

https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243

[dab69]

Moderna stock down 4.9% today

[Blueskytoday]

Sooo vaccine comes out...those who get it...I think TH authorities will still make those persons quarantine 14 days, need the insurance, etc...AND..I assume one is given some sort of certificate proving one got the vaccine??? Otherwise it would not be believable...it is all a mess I fear.

[dab69]

The best part of this is that in the USA "Warp Speed" millions of doses of vaccine being tested were already
manufactured during the testing phase and are ready to be distributed as soon as they are approved.
There will only be manufacturing vaccine to replace what will be distributed and sold to other countries.

Many here will ignorantly not want the vaccine,
"More for us that DO want a dose!"

[Moses]

I assume one is given some sort of certificate proving one got the vaccine??? Otherwise it would not be believable...

I think nobody will trust to certificates, more possible rapid blood test for antibodies right in airport on arrival, some test takes only 10 min

[Moses]

As many articles point out (including the following one) it has been a long road to develop a viable mRNA vaccine and it’s only recent developments that seem to be promising. As Dr Wikipedia points out there are no mRNA vaccines currently approved for general human use

https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243

Look, mRNA vaccines for general use does not exists not because it is hard to invent, but because they are few times more expensive than "regular vaccines". That why already exists mRNA vaccines against cancer, Zika and Ebola and does not exists mRNA vaccines against measles for example - we don't need them because already existing cheap "regular vaccines" do their job.

There is no science break trough in mRNA vaccine against COVID, method known and many times proved its effectiveness. The only task what all manufacturers doing now - to choose which segment of virus RNA insert into vaccine's molecule, make chain of biochemical processes for to produce vaccine cheap, clear from additional chemical reagents and make it easy for to transport and use.

[Manforallseasons]

Russia early on during the Covid pandemic said they had a vaccine........maybe yes maybe no as Covid deaths hit new highs in Russia.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/17/europe/russia-coronavirus-pandemic-excess-deaths-intl/index.html

[Moses]

Russia early on during the Covid pandemic said they had a vaccine........maybe yes maybe no as Covid deaths hit new highs in Russia.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/17/europe/russia-coronavirus-pandemic-excess-deaths-intl/index.html

"Highs in Russia" are unachievable dreams for many other nation you know. Current situation, sickness per one million of population. Sorry for bad news.

10446

[StevieWonders]

Russia early on during the Covid pandemic said they had a vaccine........maybe yes maybe no as Covid deaths hit new highs in Russia.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/17/europe/russia-coronavirus-pandemic-excess-deaths-intl/index.html
More to the point is how atypical those being vaccinated are.They are hand-picked to be the healthiest volunteers that can be found. When the effectiveness of one or other vaccine is mentioned in relation to, say, older people the inconvenient truth that’s omitted is that most older people have a co-morbidity such as obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol and so on. Any volunteer with any co-morbidity is automatically excluded from the testing group. Others excluded are pregnant women and lactating mothers.

[StevieWonders]

"Highs in Russia" are unachievable dreams for many other nation you know. Current situation, sickness per one million of population. Sorry for bad news.

10446
Our Lord and Saviour, Saint Vlad

[Moses]

They are hand-picked to be the healthiest volunteers that can be found. When the effectiveness of one or other vaccine is mentioned in relation to, say, older people the inconvenient truth that’s omitted is that most older people have a co-morbidity such as obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol and so on. Any volunteer with any co-morbidity is automatically excluded from the testing group. Others excluded are pregnant women and lactating mothers.

I have bad news for you too: volunteers here were picked from general population 16-80 yo. The only limits were: cancer, pregnancy, lactation. I think it is right because it is nonhuman to test vaccines on such volunteers. Does Moderna tests on pregnant woman? Whoa... As usual somewhere in Africa and Latin America with compensation $5 per day?

[Manforallseasons]

Russian Government Covid figures in question:
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-russian-death-toll-statistics-provoke-some-disbelief/a-53887981

[Moses]

Russian Government Covid figures in question:
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-russian-death-toll-statistics-provoke-some-disbelief/a-53887981

We discussed it already here. Just typical propaganda. Spain has 870 deaths per 1 mln of population it is true, because number is big, USA has 754 and UK has the same 754 it is true because they are UK and USA.

Russia has 222 per 1 mln - it is lie. Just because number is too small. Oh dear I again have bad news for you: Austria has 184, Greece 96, Australia has 35 and Japan 15. How much deaths they are hiding?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Truth is: Russia is one of countries with highest rank of beds in hospitals with oxygen and ventilators per 1 mln of population in World. 3 times higher than US, 3.5 times higher than UK. Why you wonder in lower mortality rate? Just check Japan and Russia and US and UK at this table.

10447

[Manforallseasons]

Russian Covid Reality: https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/11/16/russia-coronavirus-impact-chance-lead-vpx.cnn

[Smiles]

Numbers (yesterday) which are not bullshit.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

10448

Russia's numbers are crawling upwards (not good), as is Trump's America (never good). Possibly a good probability that Biden might well help (of course Trump does not care one iota). Putin (who will now be head-dude forever) doesn't give a shit either.

How is Traveler Jim doing these days?

[Moses]

Numbers (yesterday) which are not bullshit.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

10448

Yes. I'm talking exactly about these numbers. Just sort data by columns "cases /1mln pop" or "deaths/1mln pop" and you will see Russia on 52 and 62 rows.

By the way: looks like today Russia steps out of second wave: today number of recovered people in Moscow and in whole Russia is bigger than number of new sick. First time since September 12 - day of second wave's start

From March 1 brown - new sick per day, green new recovery per day

MOSCOW
10449

WHOLE RUSSIA
10450

[Manforallseasons]

The numbers are only as good as the numbers that a government chooses to report!

[Smiles]

The numbers are only as good as the numbers that a government chooses to report!
MFAS ... really now, it's time to get back to destroying toilet doors, don'tcha think?

[Manforallseasons]

Smiles you must be board now that 2 floors of the Blue Mall in Hua Hin have closed.

[Moses]

After 2 months of observation of phase 3 trial, second Russian vaccine from Vector lab today allowed to start trial with participant older than 65 yo and kids. developers are sure in safety but have to prove effectiveness within these groups.

As per Reuters: Brasil today announced start of mass vaccination in January with Chinese vaccine from SinoVac. This vaccine is on phase 3 trial already 2 month in Brasil.

[Jellybean]

How is Traveler Jim doing these days?

Smiles, I heard on the grapevine that, due to the current Covid-19 travel restrictions, he’s changed his name to Stay-at-home Jim. But don’t quote me on it. ;)

[Moses]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer/pfizer-ends-covid-19-trial-with-95-efficacy-to-seek-emergency-use-authorization-idUSKBN27Y1GM

Pfizer just announced what they end trial with 95% effectiveness and will apply for registration for "emergency use" in a few days.

That I cynical told from beginning when we spoke about Russian Sputnik-V registration: nobody - no one company, no one govt - will wait for "full trial" as here some members wrote "few years". 2-3 months and then production... "emergency use" for vaccines sounds like a excuse...

Nobody knows how long will lasts immunity, but everyone register and everyone is on "low start" to manufacture and count profit. Also it is about shares price and big bosses bonus in front of Christmas.

[goji]

As per Reuters: Brasil today announced start of mass vaccination in January with Chinese vaccine from SinoVac. This vaccine is on phase 3 trial already 2 month in Brasil.

Please could you share a link ? I did try searching on google. All I found was a story from just 8 days ago saying they had stopped the Sinovac trial due to an adverse incident.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-brazil-sinovac/brazils-bolsonaro-claims-victory-as-sinovac-covid-19-trial-halted-idUKKBN27Q1BO

[Moses]

Please could you share a link ? I did try searching on google. All I found was a story from just 8 days ago saying they had stopped the Sinovac trial due to an adverse incident.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-brazil-sinovac/brazils-bolsonaro-claims-victory-as-sinovac-covid-19-trial-halted-idUKKBN27Q1BO

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sinovac/sinovacs-covid-19-vaccine-induces-quick-immune-response-study-idUSKBN27X354

[goji]

Thank you. "Brazil’s Sao Paulo also plans to roll out CoronaVac as early as January and has agreed a supply deal with Sinovac"
The critical words here are "as early as". That's indicative of a best possible case, rather than a firm plan.

In a similar way, I think Boris Johnson said the UK might start vaccination in December in the last couple of weeks.


Also, related to this topic, anyone worried about duration of immunity might like to read the following: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/health/coronavirus-immunity.html

[StevieWonders]

Thank you. "Brazil’s Sao Paulo also plans to roll out CoronaVac as early as January and has agreed a supply deal with Sinovac"
The critical words here are "as early as". That's indicative of a best possible case, rather than a firm plan.

In a similar way, I think Boris Johnson said the UK might start vaccination in December in the last couple of weeks.


Also, related to this topic, anyone worried about duration of immunity might like to read the following: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/health/coronavirus-immunity.html
Can someone wake me up when the G7 countries start certifying these Russian and Chinese vaccines.

[Moses]

Can someone wake me up when the G7 countries start certifying these Russian and Chinese vaccines.

Nobody cares about G7. Their train already left station. "Other 6 milliards" will work together and Chinese "vaccine diplomacy" will tear huge part of "shiny First World's image" - China will be "friend" to most of the world just by supplying them with free vaccines: 4 huge Chinese pharma giants already stamping vaccines.

[Armando]

Anyone expecting a vaccine to enable travel to Thailand before late next year at the earliest is dreaming! The Thai government will insist on the majority of the Thai population being vaccinated before it lets others with possible fake certificates to enter. Has anyone actually seen the international medical certificate showing the holder has been vaccinated against certain illnesses? A kid could get it copied quite easily!

[Oliver2]

I'm dreaming every day. Don't spoil it for me.

[Up2U]

Anyone expecting a vaccine to enable travel to Thailand before late next year at the earliest is dreaming! The Thai government will insist on the majority of the Thai population being vaccinated before it lets others with possible fake certificates to enter. Has anyone actually seen the international medical certificate showing the holder has been vaccinated against certain illnesses? A kid could get it copied quite easily!

The simple solution, create a shared computer database. No paper.

[aot871]

Nobody cares about G7. Their train already left station. "Other 6 milliards" will work together and Chinese "vaccine diplomacy" will tear huge part of "shiny First World's image" - China will be "friend" to most of the world just by supplying them with free vaccines: 4 huge Chinese pharma giants already stamping vaccines.

I cant see , the western world wanting to use the russian or chinese vaccine when there is the us/german and the oxford ones coming on stream, Thailand has ordered the oxford vacine according to the bangkok post. Let Moses use the russian one , if he dares

[Nirish guy]

The simple solution, create a shared computer database. No paper.

Considering that some Countries cant even agree to share "the internet" I doubt they'll have any quick successes in agreeing to share a world wide database of available vaccine data - and even if they did I wonder how long it would be before certain Countries would be screaming "foul" and alleging that other Countries were adding their citizens without them ACTUALLY being vaccinated etc etc - or likewise some Countries suggesting that others were allowing their citizens names to go on the list when they were were actually DEAD already, right after they cast their votes ( or not) etc ! :-(

[latintopxxx]

...thoiught the "good" western vaccines were actually developed by two arab immigrants...so whats wrong with a chinese or russian one...

[goji]

The vaccine that helps our travel to Thailand will be the one that's used in Thailand, whichever that is.

Considering licensing contracts, let's hope AZD122 reports some very good trial results and soon. I don't think it will be this week.

[StevieWonders]

The vaccine that helps our travel to Thailand will be the one that's used in Thailand, whichever that is.

Considering licensing contracts, let's hope AZD122 reports some very good trial results and soon. I don't think it will be this week.Trial results by Xmas according to multiple reports this morning

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/19/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-results-expected-by-christmas

[Armando]

The simple solution, create a shared computer database. No paper.
And you trust anyone to come up with a system that can not be hacked like Marriott, British Airways and other major companies with huge IT departments? Good luck!

[StevieWonders]

And you trust anyone to come up with a system that can not be hacked like Marriott, British Airways and other major companies with huge IT departments? Good luck!Now now, don’t display your complete ignorance of IT. It’s exactly the sort of thing that the Blockchain was invented for.

[Armando]

Now now, don’t display your complete ignorance of IT. It’s exactly the sort of thing that the Blockchain was invented for.
Oh I know exactly what a blockchain is. Funny how it’s existence has not stopped the level of hacking I listed.

[StevieWonders]

Oh I know exactly what a blockchain is. Funny how it’s existence has not stopped the level of hacking I listed.Right, so which of Marriott, British Airways and “other major companies” have hacked databases based on the blockchain model? Here’s a hint - it’s an integer between -1 and 1.

[Armando]

Right, so which of Marriott, British Airways and “other major companies have hacked databases based on the blockchain model?
I haven’t the faintest idea. But with each having massive databases and Blockchain being so secure, how come they did not have it installed? After all, it has been around for a few years, has it not?

[StevieWonders]

I haven’t the faintest idea.At least you’ve got one thing right today.

[Armando]

After all, it has been around for a few years, has it not?
Let’s be accurate. More like than one!

[extronaut]

It's great news about all these vaccines coming out soon. Great news! But I'm not anticipating that the Australian government will let us travel for a long time. They may do, by middle of next year, or maybe not until 2022. There's just so many variable factors.

Even if I can get a shot of one vaccine, before mid 21, nobody knows how long my immunity might last. And even when I am immune to the disease, nobody knows if it's still possible for me to spread it.

Maybe I might need multiple booster shots, and multiple different vaccine shots (what they call 'prime loading').

Maybe international travel just won't be safe for the governments of the world to allow, until everybody, in every country you want to travel through, has had their multiple prime loaded booster shots.

I'm not saying this will happen. I'm saying nobody knows. Yet.

And when international travel finally does come back, which I'm sure it will, EVERYBODY IN THE ENTIRE FUCKING WESTERN WORLD is going to go on holiday. It will be like being in one ginormous Rugby scrum.

In places like Thailand, expect everything, including flights, hotels, food, and rent boys, to be about triple the price. Because there just won't be as many of those things still standing, after this crisis is over.

[dinagam]

And when international travel finally does come back, which I'm sure it will, EVERYBODY IN THE ENTIRE FUCKING WESTERN WORLD is going to go on holiday. It will be like being in one ginormous Rugby scrum.

In places like Thailand, expect everything, including flights, hotels, food, and rent boys, to be about triple the price. Because there just won't be as many of those things still standing, after this crisis is over.

There is nothing to worry about prices for tourists doubling or tripling when Thailand decides to open the door to mass tourism.
By the time that happens those wanting to re-enter the industry would have already depleted their savings as a result of the current carnage that supply could overwhelm demand in the flesh trade.

[goji]

supply could overwhelm demand in the flesh trade.

I realize you're referring to mass tourism.
However, with the limited tourism that is permitted at present, there are options for tourists to enter Thailand via a tourist visa.
However, I'm not aware of any scheme for bar boys from Camboadia, Laos and Myanmar to legally cross the border to Thailand, on an economic basis.
I guess they could apply for the Tourist Visa, but this is likely to be too expensive.
If they cross the border illegally, they are likely to get sent back if caught at any police check points. I've seen Burmese lads hauled off the bus at checkpoints just outside of border towns & assume it could happen near other borders.

[latintopxxx]

maybe we can set up an establishment to train new recruits...I'd volunteer some of my time..

[Jellybean]

maybe we can set up an establishment to train new recruits...I'd volunteer some of my time..

I'm tempted to say . . . ride 'em cowboy! ;)

[francois]

Regarding the effectiveness of vaccines, here is an article in the New York Times with some interesting info.

2 Companies Say Their Vaccines Are 95% Effective. What Does That Mean?


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/20/health/covid-vaccine-95-effective.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Health

[Dodger]

Companies Say Their Vaccines Are 95% Effective. What Does That Mean?

They only protect you from 95% of the virus, and the other 5% kills you.

Just kidding.

[goji]

[I]2 Companies Say Their Vaccines Are 95% Effective. What Does That Mean?

My non-expert understanding is as follows:
For every 100 people who get the virus symptoms without the vaccine, only 5 get this with the vaccine.

One of the trials also reported a handful of severe covid cases among the placebo group, with no severe cases among the vaccine group. However, the sample size was rather small to make any conclusions about severe cases.

[christianpfc]

And when international travel finally does come back, which I'm sure it will, EVERYBODY IN THE ENTIRE FUCKING WESTERN WORLD is going to go on holiday. It will be like being in one ginormous Rugby scrum.
That remains to be seen. Some people have lost their job or income, and we don't know yet what will happen to exchange rates. It seems most members here can afford to travel as soon as borders open, but one of my acquaintances mentioned that Covid pushed back his retirement for years.

My situation is that I saved a lot of money by being unable to travel and no entertainment as I used to do before Covid. As soon as Thailand opens at REASONABLE conditions, I will be back.

[goji]

I think the effects of covid on finances vary dramatically according to circumstances. Like Christian, I've saved money due to Covid restrictions, so look forward to my next holiday.
Anyone with a job as an airline pilot, or something like that, will be in more difficulty.

As for whether Thailand offers REASONABLE conditions:
The STV is about as desirable as an STD, however we now have the option of a Tourist Visa.
At present, I don't think the Tourist Visa, COE and quarantine regime is that unreasonable compared with the alternatives. However, it would be better to asses this after completing the process.

[aot871]

I saw in today bangkok post that thailand is not due to vaccanate people untill easter of next year , then they expect to have 30 million doses , so it looks like only 15 m people , so far . Im not sure if thai people will have to pay , but i have read in a uk paper oxford expect the cost to work out between £3 and £4 a shot far cheaper than both the US jabs .Also IATA have said they will expect every body to have to prove they have been injected , before being allowed to get on a plane by having an e pass on your mobile

[Brad the Impala]

Room for sponsorship in this scenario. Pay in advance of a trip for your partner(s) of choice to be vaccinated! Although I think some might end up with arms like pin cushions.