Are we near to having a vaccine and returning to Thailand?

[latintopxxx]

oh lord...what depressing dross...ofcourse I'll be back...and so will the boys...do u really think they wanna be stuck in the rice paddy fields all year...all we need is a vaccine or an effective treatment plan...any day now....

[francois]

oh lord...what depressing dross...ofcourse I'll be back...and so will the boys...do u really think they wanna be stuck in the rice paddy fields all year...all we need is a vaccine or an effective treatment plan...any day now....


More like any year now, not including 2020.

[gerefan2]

oh lord...what depressing dross...ofcourse I'll be back...and so will the boys...do u really think they wanna be stuck in the rice paddy fields all year...all we need is a vaccine or an effective treatment plan...any day now....


More depressing dross latinwithpox.

Any day now???

Do you honestly think Thailand will be able to agree a vaccine amongst the many being produced? Do you really think they can come up with the right beaurocracy? Do you think they could come up with a credible plan? Haven’t you been watching developments, or rather lack of them?

What planet do you live on?

Don’t answer that!

[Jellybean]

oh lord...what depressing dross...of course I'll be back...and so will the boys...do u really think they wanna be stuck in the rice paddy fields all year...all we need is a vaccine or an effective treatment plan...any day now....


What planet do you live on?

I've heard it said by other members that the answer to your question is the seventh planet from the Sun. You might very well think that; I couldn't possibly comment.
;)

[latintopxxx]

u coddled guys have no idea...probably the lost dramatic thing that has ever happened in your lives is running out of toilet paper...quick dial 011....the virus will either be tamed by a vaccine or treatment plan or run its natural course and eventually burn out...i can wait another year...no great hardship...

[Marc K]

The operative word here is eventually. The truth is of course that none of us can be sure. When you look at other vaccines (or lack of same) things are not looking too encouraging but yes that could change. But who knows. Must I remind you that we are now living with the incidence of HIV virus for over 40 years? And with the common cold virus for perhaps a few thousand years? So if we get lucky with this nasty one, we can all celebrate with a trip to Sin City!

[goji]

Must I remind you that we are now living with the incidence of HIV virus for over 40 years? And with the common cold virus for perhaps a few thousand years?
These are not directly comparable.
1 HIV mutates quickly. And technical capability now is way ahead of 40 years ago.
2 The common cold is actually caused by many different viruses. Four of which are coronaviruses.
3 Motivation to develop a vaccine is much higher with Covid, hence it is well funded with many different vaccines under development.

We will probably see two vaccines submitting results to regulators for approval in 2020.

[Jellybean]

... i can wait another year...no great hardship ...

That’s exactly how I feel, latintopxxx. In the normal course of events I would hope to travel out to Thailand in January 2021 and stay for three months. But it has been apparent for several months now that being able to travel to Thailand in the first quarter of 2021 would, for someone from the UK, be highly unlikely. I have therefore set my sights on January 2022.

The good news, according to the following article published in The Guardian is that a vaccine is expected to be available here in the UK by “early next year”. It goes without saying that health service workers will be at the front of the queue, but how will the health authorities decide the basis on which everyone else will be vaccinated?

Perhaps a good indicator might be the way they decide how the flu vaccine is distributed. My slot for getting the flu vaccination this year is different from previous years. It is reasonably early and will take place on November 8th, 2020. The selection process is based on age, those with a health condition, carers and alphabetically based on surname. Whether that is a good indicator of the basis on which they will decide how the Covid-19 vaccine will be distributed is, at the present time, anyone’s guess. If however this method is chosen then there is a modest chance that travelling to Thailand in January 2022 is a realistic expectation. Like most of us, all I can do is wait and see and not fret too much about a likely date for my return.


Are we near to having a vaccine for Covid-19?

Even a once bullish PM is now not so optimistic but there are promising signs of a vaccine on the horizon
James Tapper
Sat 17 Oct 2020 21.47 BST Last modified on Sat 17 Oct 2020 22.05 BST
Chair of the Vaccine Taskforce, Kate Bingham, has said there is a ‘slim chance’ a vaccine might arrive by Christmas. In March, Boris Johnson said we would turn the tide in 12 weeks and “send the coronavirus packing” and by May ministers were boasting of having a vaccine by September. Last week the prime minister sounded far less confident, telling MPs that there was still no vaccine for SARS, 18 years after it emerged. A vaccine may not be far away though . . .

For the full article see: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/17/are-we-near-to-having-a-vaccine-for-covid-19

[Armando]

Perhaps a good indicator might be the way they decide how the flu vaccine is distributed. My slot for getting the flu vaccination this year is different from previous years. It is reasonably early and will take place on November 8th, 2020. The selection process is based on age, those with a health condition, carers and alphabetically based on surname. Whether that is a good indicator of the basis on which they will decide how the Covid-19 vaccine will be distributed is, at the present time, anyone’s guess.
I am staggered there is some form of rationing and it is necessary to have an appointment to get a flu vaccine. In Bangkok I walked into a hospital and got it in ten minutes.

[StevieWonders]

I've heard it said by other members that the answer to your question is the seventh planet from the Sun. You might very well think that; I couldn't possibly comment.
;)Are you perhaps thinking along these lines?
10373

[StevieWonders]

I am staggered there is some form of rationing and it is necessary to have an appointment to get a flu vaccine. In Bangkok I walked into a hospital and got it in ten minutes.More deep thoughts about managing an entirely new item in the global and medical supply chain.

[arsenal]

Unless I'm mistaken Armando you paid in Bangkok whereas in the UK it's free at the point of delivery.

When the vaccine is available the west should do away with the niceties of health care and have people queuing round the block. That's what they'll do ihere n China and so everyone will be jabbed in record time.

[Patanawet]

Me too. Samitivej Hospital. 990 Baht.

[gerefan2]

I am staggered there is some form of rationing and it is necessary to have an appointment to get a flu vaccine. In Bangkok I walked into a hospital and got it in ten minutes.

There has been an unprecedented demand for flu jabs in the UK this autumn. No surprise really.

Until recently anyone could have it done in Tesco’s or £12 or so (if you have to pay).

According to their website they are now only doing it for NHS patients over 65, due to demand.

[Armando]

Unless I'm mistaken Armando you paid in Bangkok whereas in the UK it's free at the point of delivery.
Don't most in the UK pay weekly national insurance contributions? It is therefore not free.

[arsenal]

Not free. Free at the point of delivery.

[goji]

I am staggered there is some form of rationing and it is necessary to have an appointment to get a flu vaccine. In Bangkok I walked into a hospital and got it in ten minutes.

Generally, if a good or service is provided by a competitive market, there will be an abundance of supply and no waiting.
For example, we can get food 24 hours a day. If the service is no good, we can go to any one of about a dozen alternatives.

The moment a service is provided by a state monopoly, there will be queues, waiting lists and sometimes shoddy service. As we see with the NHS. Also, when food was provided by a state monopoly in eastern Europe, there were supply shortages and restricted choice. Same structure, same result.
Up until March, where I live, people have been queuing outside the GP surgery, as the Doctor sees the first 16 & the rest are told to naff off. It looks just like a Soviet food store from the 1980s. Then they closed completely when covid hit.

Meanwhile, in Germany, the consumer has an element of choice with his healthcare provision AND they make it available for everyone.

Asda charge £9 for the flu jab. I suspect demand is higher this year, as the death rate for people with flu AND Covid is over 2x higher than just Covid. Although, of course the probability of getting flu should be much lower due to all the Covid precautions.

[Andaman!]

I am staggered there is some form of rationing and it is necessary to have an appointment to get a flu vaccine. In Bangkok I walked into a hospital and got it in ten minutes.

Anyone can walk into a chemist in UK and get flu vaccine for £12, normally without a wait. I got mine straight away last week. I think the rationing that Jellybean is referring to is for those who are elderly and vulnerable and offered a free of charge vaccine via National Health Service.. if they don’t want to wait, just pay £12 and go to pharmacy.

[Armando]

Anyone can walk into a chemist in UK and get flu vaccine for £12, normally without a wait. I got mine straight away last week. I think the rationing that Jellybean is referring to is for those who are elderly and vulnerable and offered a free of charge vaccine via National Health Service.. if they don’t want to wait, just pay £12 and go to pharmacy.
So you pay 12 pounds plus the weekly national insurance contribution - unless you are on a pension I suppose.

[Nirish guy]

Anyone can walk into a chemist in UK and get flu vaccine for £12, normally without a wait.

You were lucky it seems as I've tried over the past two weeks to get a paid for Flu shot by ANY means fair or foul and it seems there's non to be had anywhere at ANY price. Boots etc are quoting MONTHS just now before they believe they've have any stock again to be able to sell appointments again and that's even for the paid for option ! :-(

So, if that;s is for the standard existing Flu vaccine I can only imagine what the wait time will be if and when any Covid vaccine gets rolled out to the masses ! :-(

[Jellybean]

Are you perhaps thinking along these lines?

Tempting though your question is StevieWonders, I better play it safe and would refer you to the answer I gave some moments ago. ;)


I am staggered there is some form of rationing and it is necessary to have an appointment to get a flu vaccine. In Bangkok I walked into a hospital and got it in ten minutes.

As I alluded to in my earlier reply, Armando, this year is very different, caused by the pressure on our health service and the extra protective measures required due to Covid-19. The flu vaccination would normally be given at my local general practitioner practice and several days set aside during which eligible patients can attend at any time during the allotted days and obtain their flu vaccination. From memory, this usually takes around 15-20 minutes with a steady stream of patients being vaccinated in an efficient conveyor belt manner. But this year, due to Covid-19, my local surgery will not be carrying out the vaccination programme and I am required to attend during a one hour time slot at a designated local medical centre.

When I lived in Bangkok, due to a recurring problem with my left eye, I had regular experience of two local hospitals, the BNH Hospital on Convent Road and the Bangkok Christian Hospital on Silom Road (BCH). What struck me the most was that I could attend either hospital as a walk-in patient without an appointment. In the case of the BNH, which is the more expensive of the two hospitals, on average I could register at reception, see a nurse, see a doctor, pay the bill and collect my prescription within 30-40 minutes. The timescale at BCH was somewhat longer at one to two hours from start to finish.

In the UK, when I lived in London, my primary ophthalmology consultant was at King’s College Hospital in Camberwell (KCH). I was seen annually, but when an issue arose, an appointment could take many weeks if not months to obtain. And once there, with an appointment, it could take one to two hours before I was seen, then a further hour or more as I was dealt with by a nurse, a doctor then finally seen by the consultant. I was treated at KCH over a 15 year period and the above is typical of my experience. So yes, I am envious of the efficiency I experienced at the Bangkok hospitals I attended but, of course, I had to pay directly for my treatment and not through my taxes and a national insurance scheme (although I no longer contribute to the scheme). And lastly, apologies for the length of my reply.

[gerefan2]

A month or so ago I had a message from my GP telling me to book a flu jab and giving me two dates.

I rang them (15 minutes to get through) and they said 0915 for the first date. “Too early” I said I have things to do every morning. What about the next date?

0930 they said. “Sorry cannot. Can you do me in the afternoon?”.
No, they told me ...”We have to issue bookings in strict order...blah blah.

So I was in Tesco's and they gave me a leaflet. Booked on line for a time I wanted the following week. All done in 5 minutes.

Welcome to the wonderful UK NHS !

[Armando]

As I alluded to in my earlier reply, Armando, this year is very different, caused by the pressure on our health service and the extra protective measures required due to Covid-19. The flu vaccination would normally be given at my local general practitioner practice and several days set aside during which eligible patients can attend at any time during the allotted days and obtain their flu vaccination. From memory, this usually takes around 15-20 minutes with a steady stream of patients being vaccinated in an efficient conveyor belt manner. But this year, due to Covid-19, my local surgery will not be carrying out the vaccination programme and I am required to attend during a one hour time slot at a designated local medical centre.

When I lived in Bangkok, due to a recurring problem with my left eye, I had regular experience of two local hospitals, the BNH Hospital on Convent Road and the Bangkok Christian Hospital on Silom Road (BCH). What struck me the most was that I could attend either hospital as a walk-in patient without an appointment. In the case of the BNH, which is the more expensive of the two hospitals, on average I could register at reception, see a nurse, see a doctor, pay the bill and collect my prescription within 30-40 minutes. The timescale at BCH was somewhat longer at one to two hours from start to finish.

In the UK, when I lived in London, my primary ophthalmology consultant was at King’s College Hospital in Camberwell (KCH). I was seen annually, but when an issue arose, an appointment could take many weeks if not months to obtain. And once there, with an appointment, it could take one to two hours before I was seen, then a further hour or more as I was dealt with by a nurse, a doctor then finally seen by the consultant. I was treated at KCH over a 15 year period and the above is typical of my experience. So yes, I am envious of the efficiency I experienced at the Bangkok hospitals I attended but, of course, I had to pay directly for my treatment and not through my taxes and a national insurance scheme (although I no longer contribute to the scheme). And lastly, apologies for the length of my reply.
I assure you no apologies necessary. The Bangkok private hospitals are great. But then they are also pricey The public hospitals like Ramathibodi and Chulalongkorn are perhaps one fifth of the cost but very similar to your NHS treatment. Both are enormous with many buildings spread over a huge area. At Ramathibodi you'd better read Thai as there is no English anywhere.

At Chula you first have to queue up between 5 and 7 in the morning to register. With your registration card in hand, you queue at a nurses station to get an appointment. This will usually be with a young doctor (mine was very cute!) who is a GP on the 13th floor. After a discussion and examination he wanted an x-ray done. This was on another floor. It did not take long but had to be paid for in advance. Back on the 13th floor he was slightly concerned at one indication on the x-ray. So in addition to the procedure I had gone in for he wanted me to see a specialist about the x ray. He gave me a document to take down to another floor. More queuing for a new number. Eventually I was given two pieces of paper rather surprisingly in English. Both were for appointments several weeks later. For the first appointment I waited for 3 1/2 hours. This time I saw a young lady specialist. The only reason for this appointment was for her to give me a new form for the second x-ray. That appointment was three weeks away.

The second x-ray showed there was in fact no problem. I realised the second specialist appointment would merely be a chat before yet anther appointment would be made for the procedure I wanted in the first lplace. As I was in discomfort, I gave up and coughed up for a private hospital. My turn for apologies over length.

[StevieWonders]

I assure you no apologies necessary. The Bangkok private hospitals are great. But then they are also pricey The public hospitals like Ramathibodi and Chulalongkorn are perhaps one fifth of the cost but very similar to your NHS treatment. Both are enormous with many buildings spread over a huge area. At Ramathibodi you'd better read Thai as there is no English anywhere.
You seem to have overlooked completely the not-for-profit private hospitals run by various Christian churches. My go-to hospital is Saint Louis on Sathorn - the prices are a fraction of those charged by BNH and many of their doctors shuttle between the two. The other one is nearby Patpong - Bangkok Christian - and many a money boy’s treatment I’ve paid for there, including vaccinations. I’ve also ex-pat friends who go there and swear by it.

Interesting that these are Christian-sponsored hospitals in Thailand. I’m not sure if any Buddhist-sponsored not-for-profit private hospitals exist although I expect our Resident Apologist For All Things Thailand will be along any tick of the clock to correct my ignorance.

[Patanawet]

CNN is still reporting the Oxford/ Astra Zenica vaccine as being paused.
They don't mention that it is only paused in the U.S. It paused for only a few days in all testing countries and was resumed (except U.S.) when it was revealed that the deceased Brazilan patient had been given the placebo.
And news today that it is proving in phase 3 testing as very effective in protecting against future infections.
Oxford has insisted that the vaccine will be provided at a no-profit policy whilst the pandemic lasts. Let us hope that all countries follow the same policy for their vaccines.

[Old git]

Amongst all the doom and gloom, some very encouraging green shoots can be seen.

The first is the vanishingly small number of reported cases of people getting this bug twice. Given that it is usually asymptomatic amongst children, it looks likely to vanish into the background, and join the many bugs we get when young, but barely notice.

The second is the growing evidence that we don't all have to get this bug to get over it. Populations with 15% antibody rates are showing infection attenuations that equate to more than 50% resistance. For every person who gets this bug, several more are becoming immune through low level exposure - building resistance without infection.

Third is that despite the onset of the northern hemisphere winter season, with a resultant spike in cases, we are probably very close now to 'peak Covid' with many badly affected countries showing a steady reduction in cases. Once the number of infections globally heads into decline, nations will start to focus on becoming 'post-Covid' and normality will return.

Fourth is that something called a vaccine is likely to become available. Whether it works or not is another matter, but it will give tourist dependant nations like Thailand, that are otherwise way behind the curve when it comes to getting over this bug, an excuse to re-open.

Reading between the lines, I expect vaccines to appear in the second quarter of next year, by which time the bug is likely to have fully run its course in most of the world's cities - but not in Thailand..

[goji]

For every person who gets this bug, several more are becoming immune through low level exposure - building resistance without infection.
Whilst I agree with most of what you are writing, do you have a link to a source of evidence to support this particular point ?

[Philex]

Many vaccinations will be ready next month. All of them already proven to be effective and safe. Too many trumps here causing panic and fake news. Stop it and get ready for the world to open.

[Moses]

building resistance without infection

For any modern doctor it sounds like "I got pregnant from holy spirit and I am still virgin"... no infection (+ no vaccination) = no antibodies = zero immunity... period.

[Marc K]

It's amazing how we have all suddenly become qualified infectious disease experts and virologists and epidemiologists. What a transformation! Come on, guys, none of us has the foggiest idea about the future course of this disease. Nor when an effective vaccine is likely to be pumped into our arms. But we can all hope for the best!

[StevieWonders]

It's amazing how we have all suddenly become qualified infectious disease experts and virologists and epidemiologists. What a transformation! Come on, guys, none of us has the foggiest idea about the future course of this disease. Nor when an effective vaccine is likely to be pumped into our arms. But we can all hope for the best!
“For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known.”

[Armando]

Amongst all the doom and gloom, some very encouraging green shoots can be seen..
Methinks you speak way too soon. A French woman underwent the mandatory 14 day quarantine in Thailand after arriving on October 1. During quarantine she tested negative twice. She and her family then flew to Koh Samui. 3 days after leaving quarantine she came down with a fever. On arrival at hospital she tested positive. According to the authorities 15 local contacts have been traced.

This follows the case of an African footballer who plays for a Thai team. He arrived in mid-August, was quarantined and tested negative. On September 11 he tested positive.

Now perhaps those outside Thailand will realise that opening the country back up to tourists is not nearly as simple as they reckon it should be.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2007315/infected-tourist-on-samui

[Old git]

"Whilst I agree with most of what you are writing, do you have a link to a source of evidence to support this particular point ?"

If you Google the subject of the human immune system, you will find many medical papers, mostly bogged down with medical jargon.

Put simply, you don't get infected by the first bug that comes along. You have a front line of defences that sees off bugs in small numbers. When the exposure level is too high, your front line is overwhelmed and you get an infection.

However, your front line defences have a capacity to learn, and recognise bugs it has previously seen off. This allows the body to see off much larger invasions when it next encounters that particular bug.

As children we experience many infections and minor encounters with bugs that we see off, building our immune system in the process.

The problem that arises with Covid is it's novelty. Our defences had no prior experience of it. Despite that, most infections are asymptomatic.

Compare that to the experience of the native Americans when they first encountered measles and some other bugs they no prior experience of, brought unintentionally by early travellers. Some 90% died.

The extent to which the body recognises bugs, defends against them - and for how long - varies from bug to bug; however all the early indications suggest that Covid will be an easy one to live with.

[Armando]

The problem that arises with Covid is it's novelty. Our defences had no prior experience of it. Despite that, most infections are asymptomatic.

Compare that to the experience of the native Americans when they first encountered measles and some other bugs they no prior experience of, brought unintentionally by early travellers. Some 90% died.

The extent to which the body recognises bugs, defends against them - and for how long - varies from bug to bug; however all the early indications suggest that Covid will be an easy one to live with.
Comparing the effect of a new virus on the body's immune system today with the diseases that wiped out most of the Central and South American Indian populations is frankly no comparison! As you point out today our bodies have built up resistance to a large number of fairly common illnesses, partly through vaccinations when we were all babies. The massacre of the Aztecs, Incas and others took place because they had absolutely no resistance to these simple illnesses. It is perfectly clear that covid19 is not a simple illness. You disagree? Tell that to the 1.15 million it has already killed around the world and the others who will die in the coming months.

[goji]

It is perfectly clear that covid19 is not a simple illness. You disagree? Tell that to the 1.15 million it has already killed around the world and the others who will die in the coming months.

Anyone wanting to get emotional about death statistics should put it in some perspective by comparing the number of deaths v those from TB or road traffic accidents. Both kill more people, yet we have learnt to live with them.

Also, just because we don't yet have a fully signed off vaccine, cure or treatment a mere 9 months after the generic sequence was posted on twitter does not disprove Old Git's statement that it's a simple illness to learn to deal with.
From what I'm reading, it took just a few hours to design some of the vaccines. The rest of the time is taken with manufacturing it, testing, testing and more testing.
Compared with something like HIV, that is relatively simple.

[Old git]

"Tell that to the 1.15 million it has already killed around the world and the others who will die in the coming months"

People really need to stop confusing the numbers who died after testing positive to Covid in the month prior to their death with the number killed by the virus.

When people are close to death due to extreme old age, it is very common for their immune systems to collapse, leaving them prey to whichever bug happens to be around. It's usually a very peaceful and dignified end.

The number of people who have lost good years of life as a direct result of this bug is very small.

[gerefan2]

"

People really need to stop confusing the numbers who died after testing positive to Covid in the month prior to their death with the number killed by the virus.

.

Quite. I see in the USA the biggest killer, after heart disease and cancer, is actually accidents.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

So anyone who has a positive test and then has an accident goes down as a Covid 19 death...

[newalaan2]

The number of people who have lost good years of life as a direct result of this bug is very small.
While for older/very older people that might well be the case, for those aged 20-70 being infected and going on to develop "Long Covid" sadly 'good years of life' being lost as a direct result of this bug may not turn out to be 'very small' compared to lost years from premature death.

Many will lose a huge number of 'good years' with the debilitating after effects of covid now classed as Long Covid, where breathing difficulties, fatigue, organ issues, blood clotting issues will affect many who regarded themselves as 'healthy' with no obvious underlying health issues prior to being infected, and many not even being hospitalised and who are only now months into the pandemic realising that the financial cost (healthcare/lost working hours) and human cost, in terms of quality of life may well be the larger issue compared to the loss of life of those in the 80+ age group. These statistics take time to collate as we continue into the pandemic and are only now being able to be assessed.


So anyone who has a positive test and then has an accident goes down as a Covid 19 death...
Precisely, the difference between the use of words, somebody dying of Covid as opposed to dying with Covid. I imagine that small difference is being used to both exaggerate or play down the numbers depending on the country and politics.

The news that Oxford-Astrazeneca vaccine is "behaving as desired" continues to offer some hope for the future.

[Marc K]

The question of which of a list of co-morbidities actually caused the death is an argument as old as medicine itself. Come on folks is this a forum about clinical science? Can we please just put our naive and half-baked theories to rest and get on with life? Sorry for the repetition but not a one of us has the foggiest notion what is going to happen in 2021 or 2022. But we can hope for the best!

[StevieWonders]

Can we please just put our naive and half-baked theories to rest and get on with life? Sorry for the repetition but not a one of us has the foggiest notion what is going to happen in 2021 or 2022. But we can hope for the best!You have evidently failed to realise that many posters are going through the Five Stages of Grief over losing access to their beloved Pattaya and that such posts are clear evidence that the member is “bargaining” - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_stages_of_grief

[arsenal]

Steviewonders is absolutely right. Not only no access to genuinly beloved Pattaya but going through purgotry at home. Members are using this forum to jemmy open cracks of hope. If that takes the form of virus or vaccine discussion or whatever then let it be.

[Armando]

The constant reference to road traffic accidents is such a ridiculous red herring when it comes to a virus. No doubt many people made a similar comparison when HIV-AIDS first appeared. After all AIDS was first named GRID (Gay Related Immune Disorder), an illness only affecting gay men when the number of deaths was in the 100s. That is what everyone believed. It took more than 18 months for medical experts to detect a case of HIV in an infant and soon after in a female infected by her bisexual partner. Few in those early days had any idea how that virus would progress into general populations around the world.

Less than a year after the appearance of covid19, the world's governments are jumping over each other to spend vast sums in an attempt to guarantee a vaccine will be discovered in a year or so, this for a virus whose death rates are small fraction of total infections. Small but significant. Yet an HIV vaccine is still nowhere in sight even after 4 decades and tens of millions of deaths.

When the SARS virus appeared in 2003, the world went into some form of collective panic. Another vaccine was desperately required, the theory went. Yet less than 800 died and within a year the virus just disappeared.

As Marc K rightly points out, we have not the faintest idea how covid19 will develop and mutate. We have no idea how countries will react in the future, given the disastrous way most have attempted to tackle to the virus since it first appeared. How many more will die? Absolutely nobody knows. When will reliable vaccines appear and be administered to all who wish it? We haven't the faintest idea.

As to returning to "beloved Pattaya:". We also have zero idea if whenever that happens the Pattaya that then exists will be anything like that which existed pre-covid. Since it was already slowly dying, perhaps it will exist only in dreams.

[StevieWonders]

The constant reference to road traffic accidents is such a ridiculous red herring when it comes to a virus. No doubt many people made a similar comparison when HIV-AIDS first appeared. After all AIDS was first named GRID (Gay Related Immune Disorder), an illness only affecting gay men when the number of deaths was in the 100s. That is what everyone believed. It took more than 18 months for medical experts to detect a case of HIV in an infant and soon after in a female infected by her bisexual partner. Few in those early days had any idea how that virus would progress into general populations around the world.Apart from you I’m not aware of anyone who is equating deaths from a virus with deaths caused by a motor vehicle. Every comment I’ve seen uses the traffic statistics as an attempt to put the number of deaths in perspective - a “get a grip” attempt rather than anything else. As for your ludicrous assertion about a similar comparison being made in the early days of AIDS ...

[dab69]

Both China and Russia already have approved and are uaing a vaccine.

[Old git]

We have not the faintest idea how covid19 will develop and mutate.


Right from the outset multiple strains of Covid were detected, hinting that it might have lurked unseen in an isolated community in China (and just possibly elsewhere) for some time prior to being noticed. The press hooked on to the images of Pangolins in a live animal market, and the conspiracy theorists automatically assumed it must have been a lab leak, intentional or otherwise. Logic, however, points to a more mundane origin.

There is a tiny amount of case history suggesting some people can get successive infections with different strains, but the reported numbers are so small as to be rare exceptions rather than a substantive hazard.

Could a mutation occur that created a new bug, so different from the original that our bodies won't recognise it? Given that we are not seeing parallel epidemics of the different strains, it so far appears that our body's ability to recognise it trumps its ability to assume a new guise. There is also some evidence that populations that had a light brush with SARS are not seeing Covid take hold, suggesting a deep and enduring resistance, borne of a bug that is significantly different.

Overall I'm quite bullish about the outlook. I don't have a huge amount of confidence in the vaccine angle, but I am quietly confident that when antibody rates reach around 25% in a population, the spread of the bug will go into sharp decline.

[goji]

Agreed.
Anyone who reads some of the research into Sars-cov-2 and similar viruses will have a very reasonable idea how this could develop and mutate. No certainty, but a reasonable idea.

[aot871]

The UK , according to the daily mail, are thinking of starting the vaccine injections early in the new year,,for health workers ,followed by general public

[Armando]

The UK , according to the daily mail, are thinking of starting the vaccine injections early in the new year,,for health workers ,followed by general public
Does anyone actually believe what a rag like the Daily Mail writes?

This seems to have come from a man named Burley who works for a group of hospitals in the English Midlands. But it's not new. He made this comment earlier in the month. This is the more accurate description of the vaccine situation from today's report in another UK paper.


well-placed NHS sources said that, while hospitals were preparing plans to help roll out any vaccine that is approved, the timescale Burley set out is premature and overly ambitious.

“There is no progress at all [on when a vaccine will arrive], no date, no national steer [from NHS England bosses] and only frustration,” said a senior official at one of the major NHS trusts that has been handed a key role in the drive to distribute whichever vaccine is the first to be approved.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, told MPs and peers that a vaccine would not be available in the UK until the spring.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/hopes-rise-for-approval-of-coronavirus-vaccine-by-end-of-this-year

[StevieWonders]

Does anyone actually believe what a rag like the Daily Mail writes?I find its reporters equally as credible as anything you post here.

[Oliver2]

The problem is that The Daily Mail is so beholden to far-right members of our benighted government that you always have to be aware of an "angle". Its reporters are embedded in the wider political environment that works for Johnson, as well ministers themselves, and so stories which reflect current controversies are inevitably suspect.

[aot871]

Might be right wing but not far right

[Moggy]

Might be right wing but not far right

What you talking about its the most Right wing newspaper in the UK
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/03/07/how-left-or-right-wing-are-uks-newspapers

[billyhouston]

The problem is that TheGuardian is so beholden to far-left, Marxist, members of our benighted opposition that you always have to be aware of an "angle". Its reporters are embedded in the wider political environment that works for Corbyn, as well as shadow ministers themselves, and so stories which reflect current controversies are inevitably suspect.

[Armando]

The problem is that TheGuardian is so beholden to far-left, Marxist, members of our benighted opposition that you always have to be aware of an "angle". Its reporters are embedded in the wider political environment that works for Corbyn, as well as shadow ministers themselves, and so stories which reflect current controversies are inevitably suspect.
The Guardian is at least one newspaper you can read on line at no cost. Having done so for a time, I find a description of it as being beholden to the "far left" ridiculous! It is certainly left wingin comparison to the Daily Mail. Hard left? Again I say rubbish. Besides, is not the present government right wing? And did not The Guardian unequivocally quote this right wing government's chief scientific advisor?


Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, told MPs and peers that a vaccine would not be available in the UK until the spring.

[Brad the Impala]

Could a mutation occur that created a new bug, so different from the original that our bodies won't recognise it? Given that we are not seeing parallel epidemics of the different strains, it so far appears that our body's ability to recognise it trumps its ability to assume a new guise. There is also some evidence that populations that had a light brush with SARS are not seeing Covid take hold, suggesting a deep and enduring resistance, borne of a bug that is significantly different.

Overall I'm quite bullish about the outlook. I don't have a huge amount of confidence in the vaccine angle, but I am quietly confident that when antibody rates reach around 25% in a population, the spread of the bug will go into sharp decline.

In fact it was reported by the Guardian in July, based on research from Kings College London, that it is the antibodies that go into a steep decline after infection and that immunity may only last a few months.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests

[Zebedee]

In fact it was reported by the Guardian in July, based on research from Kings College London, that it is the antibodies that go into a steep decline after infection and that immunity may only last a few months.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests

Yes, and again today in a different report.

“The fact that people get reinfected regularly throughout their lives with seasonal coronaviruses [that cause some common colds] suggests that the immunity, whether or not it is antibody mediated and/or T-cell mediated, probably isn’t very long-lasting,” said Barclay, who added that the team suspect the body reacts to infection with the new coronavirus in a similar way.

However,the article goes onto say;

But she said the new results do not necessarily mean that immunity arising from vaccination would be short-lived. “A good vaccine may well be better than natural immunity.”


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/27/proportion-of-people-in-england-with-covid-antibodies-has-fallen-study-says

[goji]

is not the present government right wing?

A very good question. Whilst it is obviously the Conservative party in charge, it's not entirely obvious if their policies are to the right or left of the Blair Labour government.
I have yet to see any evidence of right wing policies from them. For example, where are all the cuts in social security and taxes ?
Also, compared with all of the world and all of history, we have relatively high taxation and wealth re-distribution.
Of course UK politics belongs in a different thread.


In fact it was reported by the Guardian in July, based on research from Kings College London, that it is the antibodies that go into a steep decline after infection and that immunity may only last a few months.
Antibodies are not the only part of the immune system. There are other features such as T-cells, memory-B cells etc.
I haven't seen anyone report that T-cells have a short life, but I have seen reports that people still have T-cells from the Sars-Cov-1 outbreak 17 years ago.
I suppose the question would be are T-cells etc sufficient to turn Covid-19 from a life threatening disease into a minor one ?

[Oliver2]

The Guardian, with its false allegations, far from supporting the Labour Party, encouraged the defeat of Corbyn. Jonathon Freedland in particular. No one who reads it now believes it to be left-of-centre. And "Marxist"? a comically bizarre suggestion.
The best that can be said of it now is that it isn't as bad as The Torygraph or Murdoch's Times. Some good football writers though.

[Old git]

In the past couple of days I've dug out the WHO data on SARS, which lists those countries that had some person to person transmission of the SARS virus 18 years ago.

Looking at the Covid cases for each of those countries reveals a high degree of resistance to the bug, the only country having a significant number of Covid cases being Canada. Even then, the Covid infection rate for Canada per 100,000 people is only a third that of the USA.

I'm increasingly convinced that the route to becoming post-Covid is not vaccination with dead virus, but a very light encounter with the live virus, to sufficiently stimulate our immune responses, but without causing an infection.

[Armando]

There is also some evidence that populations that had a light brush with SARS are not seeing Covid take hold, suggesting a deep and enduring resistance, borne of a bug that is significantly different.
I am not sure what you mean by 'light brush". China had the most cases of SARS by far. Others with significant numbers of deaths were Hong Kong, Taiwan, Canada, Singapore and Vietnam. If you mean that this was a light brush, then you are correct. Canada was hit harder than most other western countries partly because of Chinese returning home after the New Year holiday with relatives in China..

I suggest you are not correct in assuming from those statistics some sort of resistance to covid19 in those countries. Far more likely, I believe, is that because those countries were unprepared and hit hard by SARS, they established government departments specifically to spring into action as soon as the next virus appeared on the horizon. It was recognised that since SARS was a result of a virus crossing the species barrier from animals to humans, other viruses would eventually do the same. And China would almost certainly be the source.

Thus all the countries in the list above were prepared. Almost immediately they put into place a number of measures that took the rest of the world many more weeks. Taiwan banned travel from many countries, including Hong Kong, in mid-February. Those arriving had to have temperatures taken, provide details of where they would be staying, phone numbers and contact persons. Mask wearing was also all but mandatory. Vietnam soon made mask wearing and the use of hand sanitiser mandatory.

Another reason for suggesting there was no resistance centres is Thailand. It only had 9 deaths from SARS. So it is highly unlikely the population had any sort of natural immunity to covid19. Yet its death rate this year is still one of the lowest in the world.

You mention evidence for your theory. It would be nice to see it.

[Old git]

I would agree that the observation is not on its own proof positive, but it chimes with the broader narrative that this is going to be a far easier bug to live with than the doomsters suggest, and that vaccination is not the route to getting over it.

Will Oct 23rd go down as world 'peak Covid' day? - I predicted on the 21st that we'd reach the maximum infection rate within a month. We might yet get another spike - we'll see..

[Brad the Impala]

I would agree that the observation is not on its own proof positive, but it chimes with the broader narrative that this is going to be a far easier bug to live with than the doomsters suggest, and that vaccination is not the route to getting over it.

Not on it's own proof positive!!! You betcha! In fact the points that Armando made completely undermined your whole assumption, but we look forward to the evidence that you referenced.


Will Oct 23rd go down as world 'peak Covid' day? - I predicted on the 21st that we'd reach the maximum infection rate within a month. We might yet get another spike - we'll see..

I hope that you are right but are you standing by your prediction or saying that there will be another spike?! I think it's called hedging your bets. Of course people have been forecasting the imminent peak of the infection since March. I look forward to someone being right eventually.



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[Nirish guy]

I think the news on muliple platforms today that Immunity to Covid may in fact not last as long as they might have hoped ( i.e a few months just perhaps) is maybe more worrying.

That of course then means that even those who have had Covid before could then catch it again in another few months time again so repeating the whole (re)infection process, so without some form of a vaccine this would suggest that this thing could just keep running on for quite some time to come then ? :-(

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-10-26/covid-19-antibody-levels-reduce-over-time-study-finds

[goji]

They state that "Covid-19 immunity COULD only last a few months following infection".

The key word here is "COULD", as they only reported antibody results. They haven't reported anything for the rest of the immune system, so the idea that immunity could only last a few months is pure speculation.

This is typical of the trash published by mass media outlets.

If we go searching for more specialist scientific publications, we find that:
(i) Sars-Cov-2 also produces T-cells
(ii) T-cells COULD last many years, as is shown by studies on Sars-Cov-1

Now I'm certainly not claiming to be an expert on these matters, but there's no harm in reading.
This time last year, all I could remember about the immune system from school biology was Antibodies. It doesn't take much reading to find out there's much more to it than that.

I still know almost naff all about T-cells, memory-B cells etc, but it seems they help the body to mount a faster immune response in future. There are papers showing that good T-cell responses are a contributor to asymptotic infection.

Disclaimer: I am not an expert.




https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876034120305670

[gerefan2]

This is typical of the trash published by mass media outlets.


I say again...
The Media is the Virus.
The Virus is the media.

[arsenal]

There are no experts on this virus.

I heard that herd immunity would head it off but then I heard that herd immunity wouldn't.

[Old git]

"In fact the points that Armando made completely undermined your whole assumption"

If they were facts, they would have done, but he was only reporting a theory that is a very long way from being proven, and stumbles under scrutiny.

"I think the news on multiple platforms today that Immunity to Covid may in fact not last as long as they might have hoped"

This is a monumental misunderstanding by the media - for many bugs, antibodies and immunity run hand in hand..

..but not all.

The body's defences operate on several levels. If our innate immunity is easily over-whelmed by a bug, then antibodies play a vital role, but for many bugs our innate immune system's ability to learn and prepare is the dominant defence.

Covid is a wimp of a bug, it's only real weapon is that of surprise, Once our innate defences recognise it, it gets no further.

The numbers getting Covid twice are negligible, yet antibody retention is proven to show rapid attenuation. It's not hard to work out that antibodies are a red herring in this case..

[StevieWonders]

There are no experts on this virus.None? None at all? You’re paying attention solely to the popular media (and forum know-alls) and proclaim that in the scientific and medical community whose deliberations the popular media do not report no one has developed any expertise?

[Moses]

I'm increasingly convinced that the route to becoming post-Covid is not vaccination with dead virus, but a very light encounter with the live virus, to sufficiently stimulate our immune responses, but without causing an infection.

It is very old and risky way. Very-very old. 19 century. It is exactly how a lot of American kids were exposed to poly virus at past century when "light encounter... live virus" in poly vaccine was too much "live".

Modern approach is: to take something live and totally harmless (some harmless virus which is living with humans for ages already and proven to be harmless, or virus which is living on some animal and also harmless for humans) and by engineering method to attach to it specific to all COVID-19 mutations small part of COVID virus. This is how Hamaleya made Russian vaccine or Oxford made his vaccine. Method is named vector vaccine.

[StevieWonders]

It is very old and risky way. Very-very old. 19 century. It is exactly how a lot of American kids were exposed to poly virus at past century when "light encounter... live virus" in poly vaccine was too much "live".It’s also the method Catherine the Great sponsored when introducing the notion of vaccinations against smallpox in Russia in the second half of the 18th Century.

[extronaut]

The two are really not the same thing.

Even if the first vaccines appear before Christmas, it will take ages to mass produce and distribute them.

And, according to all I've read, they're unlikely to be 100% effective anyway (few vaccines are).

So the crisis will continue for the foreseeable future. I think the hope is that with multiple vaccines, and improving treatments, that can reduce the severity of the overall pandemic to a manageable level.

Maybe some time in 22 I'll be able to go frolicking around Asia again. Maybe. It might be expensive and unpleasant though

[Moggy]

I think the news on muliple platforms today that Immunity to Covid may in fact not last as long as they might have hoped ( i.e a few months just perhaps) is maybe more worrying.

That of course then means that even those who have had Covid before could then catch it again in another few months time again so repeating the whole (re)infection process, so without some form of a vaccine this would suggest that this thing could just keep running on for quite some time to come then ? :-(

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-10-26/covid-19-antibody-levels-reduce-over-time-study-finds

Not necessarily there are more parts to the immune system than antibody levels.
https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2020/7/4/21310693/coronavirus-covid-19-antibodies-immunity-study#:~:text=Testing%20negative%20for%20coronavir us%20antibodies%20doesn’t%20mean%20you’re,T-cells%20that%20can%20identify%20and%20destroy%20in fected%20calls.

[Armando]

"In fact the points that Armando made completely undermined your whole assumption"

If they were facts, they would have done, but he was only reporting a theory that is a very long way from being proven, and stumbles under scrutiny.

What do you mean - if they were facts? They were facts as produced by the WHO. If you doubt them, here is the link -

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/country2003_08_15.pdf?ua=1

At least I post a link, You merely make vague assumptions based on nothing more than what you might or might not have read somewhere. As Brad the Impala pointed out above, we await your evidence.

[latintopxxx]

...based on what I've read here I'm starting to believe that Trump may be on the right path with injectable janola and all...

[Nirish guy]

...based on what I've read here I'm starting to believe that Trump may be on the right path with injectable janola and all...

Get on to your share account quick there and be ready to buy buy buy as apparentlyTrump is about to suggest his next guaranteed to work "therapeutic" idea .... :-)
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[dab69]

Brazil will let you in if you have already HAD CoVid-19?

Now if TH would adopt that I would almost be that desperate.

[latintopxxx]

charles, trump, bolsanaro, boris...all got it...and are all fine...suspect its all a commie plot to keep us the masses cowed and obedient...

[Oliver2]

As always, Latin must be dead right. Just one question; have the four characters he named, something in common? Clue; $.

[goji]

Brazil will let you in if you have already HAD CoVid-19?

Brazil lets us in whether or not we have had Covid-19.
However, anyone who has already had Covid-19 is likely to have T-cells ready to deal with any further infections. So they are probably at lower risk (non-expert assessment).
[If you intend to leave the UK in November, you will also need to depart before Thursday]

As for the vaccine:

1 The UK regulator has apparently started a rolling review of the Oxford vaccine data.

2 One of the newspapers said Astra Zeneca intended to review the vaccine data after 75 infections. With 10,000 UK people in the trial and a current infection rate of near 1%, they really ought to be close to 75 if not past it. That's without even considering additional trials in Brazil, South Africa etc.
This is a slightly illogical target as well, as the better the vaccine, the longer they wait before reviewing the data. If the vaccine were perfect, all of the infections would be in the placebo group (5000) and none in the vaccine group (5000).

[Blueskytoday]

When the vaccine is available,,and one gets the injection..will/do they give some letter or certificate proving you ACTUALLY got the shot??? Otherwise
you cannot enter many countries as just saying "I got it" will not do

[Moses]

When the vaccine is available,,and one gets the injection..will/do they give some letter or certificate proving you ACTUALLY got the shot??? Otherwise
you cannot enter many countries as just saying "I got it" will not do

Looks like with COVID you'll need not certificate of injection but certificate about level of antibodies in blood because different vaccines will develop different level of antibodies, also the same vaccine will develop different levels in different people, some people will need doubled or even tripled vaccination for to develop high enough level. For example first vaccination against poly is going twice for all people because after first injection level of antibodies to poly isn't high enough.

If it will be high enough then you'll be allowed to enter. Also maybe it will be not certificate but PCR test in airport of arrival, or both.

[goji]

There are at least two possible ways for vaccine to open travel:

1 Destination country allows in visitors with proof of vaccination.
2 Destination country has vaccinated a sufficient proportion of the domestic population to permit inbound travel regardless of traveler vaccine status.

I believe Thailand has signed a contract for delivery of at least one of the vaccine candidates in 2021. Whether any of the contracted vaccines get approved is the important question.

[Armando]

1 Destination country allows in visitors with proof of vaccination.
Sure I can see it now. Thousands of Indian printers already getting set up to produce fake certificates that will fool even medical professionals.

I hope no country trusts anyone purely on the basis of a piece of paper.

[Patanawet]

Sure I can see it now. Thousands of Indian printers already getting set up to produce fake certificates.
Indian --why?

[christianpfc]

I have a small yellow vaccination book, as far as I know these are standardized worldwide. Some countries (in Africa and South America) require and check/enforce vaccination against yellow fewer for everyone who enters. I guess they have ways to make sure the vaccination is genuine.

[arsenal]

The Oxford vaccine bods have suggested it might be available rather soon, before the end of the year. I like the idea of testing it on the over 85s, presumably if they survive it's safe for everybody else. A chance for them to make one final contribution before departure. Extra gummy bears all round.


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-small-chance-covid-jab-will-be-ready-before-christmas-oxford-vaccine-boss-says-12123325

[goji]

A regulatory announcement by Astra Zeneca issued today indicates that the results of the trials in the UK, Brazil & South Africa are due before the end of 2020. The US trial is due in the first half of 2021.

I suppose it then depends on what the results show and how long the regulators dither for.

[Armando]

Indian --why?
I thought it was generally known that if you want a fake graduation certificate or other formal looking document Indian printers were the experts.

[francois]

The Oxford vaccine bods have suggested it might be available rather soon, before the end of the year. I like the idea of testing it on the over 85s, presumably if they survive it's safe for everybody else. A chance for them to make one final contribution before departure. Extra gummy bears all round.



An 85 year old male has a life expectancy of 90 yo, so please don't rush their demise.

[StevieWonders]

I thought it was generally known that if you want a fake graduation certificate or other formal looking document Indian printers were the experts.You think it will be paper-based? In 2021? It will be a digital certificate stored in your phone’s wallet and verified by a government agency.

[gerefan2]

Following the recent tourist debacle can you imagine the chaos which is going to ensue when Thailand tries to agree which inoculation and what evidence (paperwork or digital) is acceptable?

[goji]

Following the recent tourist debacle can you imagine the chaos which is going to ensue when Thailand tries to agree which inoculation and what evidence (paperwork or digital) is acceptable?

Based on Thai government policy in the last 6 months, the only way a vaccine will open the door for tourists is when the Thai population have received the vaccine.
Of course, no one on this board is discussing that possibility, even though we know the Thai government has at least one vaccine contract in place.

[They have a contract with Astra Zeneca to manufacture the "Oxford" vaccine (AZD1222) in Thailand, with the aim of commencing vaccinations in the first half of 2021. Depending on results of course.]

[gerefan2]

Well let’s hope they have better success than the “world beating” track and trace system that we were supposed to be developing. Sighhh...

[Armando]

You think it will be paper-based? In 2021? It will be a digital certificate stored in your phone’s wallet and verified by a government agency.
And you think all senior citizens have smart phones and know how to work all the bells and whistles? I very much doubt it.

[Oliver2]

What's a digital certificate?

[Armando]

Will the first mutation of the virus affect the development of a vaccine? Denmark has culled its huge mink farms after it was found the covid19 virus had spread to mink. Worse, cases have now been discovered of a mutation of the virus that has spread to from the mink to humans. It is believed this could affect the race to find an effective vaccine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54833459

[StevieWonders]

And you think all senior citizens have smart phones and know how to work all the bells and whistles? I very much doubt it.I guess in your ignorance you’re unaware that you must use a smartphone App to enter Singapore already and Australia will be requiring it next year. Do you perhaps belong to a technologically backward country like the USA?

[arsenal]

Done properly as they have here in China you just press the app button and up pops your track and trace health code. Simples.

[Moses]

Will the first mutation of the virus affect the development of a vaccine

First??? There are 7 main kinds known (GR, G, GH, O, S, L and V)

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and about 500+ of mutation in total. You always can check actual "tree" of kinds of this virus here https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

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[Oliver2]

For some of us, absolutely nothing is simple when it comes to these damn phones. Phone calls and LINE represent just about everything I can do.
What I need is a cute Thai to visit me here in London and teach me. Watching those students running rings around the Old Generals by playing their phones like musical instruments was instructive. Any takers?

[Moses]

Worse, cases have now been discovered of a mutation of the virus that has spread to from the mink to humans. It is believed this could affect the race to find an effective vaccine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54833459

Oh, you not got main message. Worse is: human body does not produce IgG antibodies to this "mink virus". That means it is not possible to make vaccine against this mutation (in article they write calming "the effectiveness of any future vaccine could be affected by the mutation", but pay attention to word "any"), BUT MAIN is: you may be sick by this virus many times case by case, because you will have no immunity (no IgG). And that is very serious. That why Denmark kills all minks in country and isolate 12 persons who are sick with this mutation.

[dinagam]

There goes my mink stole for next autumn-winter collection.

[Armando]

There goes my mink stole for next autumn-winter collection.
I’d be more worried about my next autumn-winter vacation.

[siscu58]

Seems that we wil have a vaccine finally. Maybe the one from Pfizer maybe another one. But no doubt we will have something effective and we will be vaccinated by mid-2021.
The next question is: how will the Thai government react? will they open borders? Under what conditions?

[christianpfc]

A lot of members here seem to believe a vaccine will solve the Covid crisis.

My mid-term plans (i.e. how to get over this winter somewhere warm and with boys) do not rely on a vaccine. Even if a vaccine was found now, it would take months to do tests and start mass production and distribution and countries to accept the vaccine and change their immigration policies.

[StevieWonders]

A lot of members here seem to believe a vaccine will solve the Covid crisis.

My mid-term plans (i.e. how to get over this winter somewhere warm and with boys) do not rely on a vaccine. Even if a vaccine was found now, it would take months to do tests and start mass production and distribution and countries to accept the vaccine and change their immigration policies.
Thailand already has a (very short) list of countries whose residents have shortened quarantine requirements (10 days rather than 14). The only “Western” countries on that list are Australia and New Zealand. Clusterfuck areas like Europe or the Americas likely won’t be added for many many months.

[Manforallseasons]

A promising vaccine with a 90% effective rate is in production in the U.S. it will take 2 separate injections over a period of time to be effective however, the production and distribution so far is for U.S. citizens and will take a lot of time to distribute elsewhere, unless other vaccines are available in the west I don’t foresee any meaningful change in Thailand’s Covid policy toward western tourists.

[Moggy]

A promising vaccine with a 90% effective rate is in production in the U.S. it will take 2 separate injections over a period of time to be effective however, the production and distribution so far is for U.S. citizens and will take a lot of time to distribute elsewhere, unless other vaccines are available in the west I don’t foresee any meaningful change in Thailand’s Covid policy toward western tourists.

Its not only being produced in the U.S. its currently being manufactured in Melbourne Australia 30 million dosses, Puurs Belgium and the UK around 100 million and its expected to be available to the public in the UK sometime in December I think it will be produced in any country that purchased it as shipping is difficult as it needs to be stored at -70c.

[StevieWonders]

Its not only being produced in the U.S. its currently being manufactured in Melbourne Australia 30 million dosses, Puurs Belgium and the UK around 100 million and its expected to be available to the public in the UK sometime in December I think it will be produced in any country that purchased it as shipping is difficult as it needs to be stored at -70c.Are you able to provide a link to a story about the Pfizer vaccine being manufactured in Melbourne please?

[arsenal]

Are you able to use Google? It is or it isn't. Do you need a link to Google?

[Nirish guy]

Are you able to provide a link to a story about the Pfizer vaccine being manufactured in Melbourne please?

I think you'll struggle find one ( about Pfzier anyway as the link below states they aren't manufacturing in Melbourne ) :
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/11/australias-order-of-10m-doses-of-pfizer-covid-vaccine-is-not-enough-labor-warns

Im guessing the info the Op was referring to was detail as contained in this link below perhaps - which is quite different manufacture wise to the that latest mRNA vaccine of course.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8915431/Covid-19-Vaccine-begin-Melbourne-week.html

[aot871]

Once people in the west start having the vacine ,how long do u think it will be before the thais open the boarder and let the tourists in ?

[StevieWonders]

Once people in the west start having the vacine ,how long do u think it will be before the thais open the boarder and let the tourists in ?As soon as the Thais (and every other country) have determined a convention on how to identify who’s had the vaccine and who hasn’t. Given that the rumours are that people will require both a vaccination and shortly thereafter a booster shot you can guess at the complex logistics of getting such doses to everyone who wants them. On top of that there’ll be the record-keeping needed to satisfy the relevant Immigration and airline personnel.

Hence (as I’ve been saying since at least June) any member who thinks they’ll be back in Thailand in 2020 has rocks in their head and Songkran 2021 is the earliest likely date.

[Zebedee]

A lot of members here seem to believe a vaccine will solve the Covid crisis.

Even if a vaccine was found now, it would take months to do tests and start mass production and distribution and countries to accept the vaccine and change their immigration policies.

Also with the Pfizer vaccine, two doses are required three weeks apart,and the vaccine must be stored at -70℃ or -80℃. The roll out would not be easy,but its still promising.

[Zebedee]

I think its time to resurrect the dead horse and give it a good flogging!

[StevieWonders]

I think its time to resurrect the dead horse and give it a good flogging!That’s very unkind to the very many members who are working their way through the five stages of grief. The focus on a vaccine is a clear symptom of the middle stage - bargaining.

[Patanawet]

vaccine must be stored at -70℃ or -80℃. The roll out would not be easy,but its still promising.
Yes but the vaccine may be stored at normal refrigerator temperatures on the day of use.
I read that Pfizer is already working on the next generation of the vaccine that will be in powder form that can be stored in a normal fridge.

[goji]

Also with the Pfizer vaccine, two doses are required three weeks apart,and the vaccine must be stored at -70℃ or -80℃. The roll out would not be easy,but its still promising.

I believe they have packaging with dry ice to keep the vaccine at temperature for 10 days. With some organization, this could be flown to any major population centre in the world and deployed with the 10 days.

[Dodger]

Most medical centers already have capabilities for storage and preservation @ <-60c. So storing even the first wave of Pfizer vaccine would not be a problem. People living in rural areas may have to do some traveling (2 trips) to obtain the vaccine, but this appears to be a minor problem...all things considered.

[Zebedee]

I'm not suggesting anything improper,although the timing is incredible.

-"Pfizer’s chief executive sold shares in the company worth $5.6m (£4.2m) on the day the drugmaker announced that its Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective in protecting people from transmission of the virus, triggering a surge in the company’s stock.
Albert Bourla sold 132,508 shares at $41.94 a share, equivalent to 62% of his shareholding in Pfizer, according to filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This is close to the $41.99 peak the share price hit on Monday.
Pfizer said that the shares were sold via an automated system after they hit a certain price, under a plan set up in August."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/11/pfizer-chief-sold-56m-dollars-of-shares-on-day-covid-vaccine-was-announced

[goji]

I'm not suggesting anything improper,although the timing is incredible.

I'm not sure on US rules, but where I live it's OK to sell AFTER announcements, since the information is in the public domain.

What's not OK is trading before an announcement, e.g. selling before bad news, or buying before good news.

Pfizer is currently about 1% above the price 3 weeks ago.

[Zebedee]

I'm not sure on US rules, but where I live it's OK to sell AFTER announcements, since the information is in the public domain.

What's not OK is trading before an announcement, e.g. selling before bad news, or buying before good news.

Pfizer is currently about 1% above the price 3 weeks ago.

Oh yes, he acted within the law.....by hours....LOL
But I would have thought the shares would rise a lot further,when / if the vaccine gets full regulatory approvals and the go ahead to manufacture and distribute. Selling now isn't exactly showing great confidence in his companies' product. Or am I missing something?

[dinagam]

[QUOTE=Zebedee;271054 Selling now isn't exactly showing great confidence in his companies' product. Or am I missing something?[/QUOTE]

My thoughts exactly.

[goji]

Selling now isn't exactly showing great confidence in his companies' product. Or am I missing something?

There are various reasons for buying and selling shares.

1 No matter how good a business, the stock price can still rise above what a rational valuation says is fair. For example, google currently shows Amazon stock at 91x earnings. Despite Amazon being a good business, not everyone would pay that.
Perhaps the Pfizer people consider their stock to be above fair valuation ?

2 Tax policy changes can be another factor. If taxes might go up in 2021, sell some now ?

[Zebedee]

There are various reasons for buying and selling shares.

1 No matter how good a business, the stock price can still rise above what a rational valuation says is fair. For example, google currently shows Amazon stock at 91x earnings. Despite Amazon being a good business, not everyone would pay that.
Perhaps the Pfizer people consider their stock to be above fair valuation ?

2 Tax policy changes can be another factor. If taxes might go up in 2021, sell some now ?

I don't really have any understanding of share trading, I wish I did! Thanks for your explanation.

[christianpfc]

Once people in the west start having the vacine ,how long do u think it will be before the thais open the boarder and let the tourists in ?
Thailand is open to tourists (see my post on the New Tourist Visa), but you have to submit a lot of documents and need to undergo 14 days of quarantine in ASQ starting at 30kTHB. Whoever has the time and is willing to spend that money (I'm not), can be in Thailand in one month from now (embassy recommends two weeks for processing application + two weeks quarantine) as a tourist.

Certainly much quicker than waiting for a vaccine to be developed, tested, produced, distributed and accepted by the relevant authorities.

[goji]

Thailand is open to tourists (see my post on the New Tourist Visa), but you have to submit a lot of documents and need to undergo 14 days of quarantine in ASQ starting at 30kTHB. Whoever has the time and is willing to spend that money (I'm not), can be in Thailand in one month from now (embassy recommends two weeks for processing application + two weeks quarantine) as a tourist.

The 14 day quarantine starts the day after you arrive, so it's effectively 15 nights.

The quarantine hotel prices are reasonable, when we consider they cover full catering, transport and 2 covid tests.
The bigger issue is very poor terms and conditions for modifying bookings in case of test failures, flight cancellation etc. Some allow modifications up to 48 or 72 hours before the date of arrival, which is no damn use at all. The customer will not have the covid test result at the deadline for changing hotel bookings ! Then other things can go wrong.

During your 15 night quarantine period, there are apparently 2 COVID-19 tests. If you fail one of these, you're carted off to the hotel's partner hospital, whether you need treatment or not. I'm not sure what the criteria are for getting out of hospital, but did see two negative tests mentioned.

[Blueskytoday]

Extremely complicated.....I am not going

[gerefan2]

During your 15 night quarantine period, there are apparently 2 COVID-19 tests. If you fail one of these, you're carted off to the hotel's partner hospital, whether you need treatment or not. I'm not sure what the criteria are for getting out of hospital, but did see two negative tests mentioned.

Maybe have an extra test or two before leaving for Thailand and be very careful where you go and what you do.

Not cheap but it would give you a good indication that you are Covid free right up until departure.

[dab69]

In USA Dr. Fauci said the average American will be able to get vaccine by April.

[StevieWonders]

In USA Dr. Fauci said the average American will be able to get vaccine by April.Most media reports of that interview state that the word he used was COULD not WILL. Others omit “all” and merely say “widely available”. The Boston Globe summary states “Dr Anthony Fauci tells CNN’s Jake Tapper that a coronavirus vaccine COULD BE available to all Americans by April 2021”.

[dab69]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/pfizer-to-apply-for-emergency-use-for-its-covid-19-vaccine/ar-BB1bcvAI?li=BBnb7Kz


Trump rips Romney in fight over fraud claims
Tyson Foods investigating whether employees bet on who would get COVID-19…
NBC News logo Pfizer to apply for emergency use for its Covid-19 vaccine

Pfizer announced it will submit an application to the Food and Drug Administration Friday for an emergency use authorization for its experimental Covid-19 vaccine.

[extronaut]

I think these vaccines will take a long time to distribute. And nobody knows, yet, exactly how effective they're going to be in terms of duration, and how well they stop the spreading. We shall see.

But the other issue that worries me, is that when borders finally open, there's going to be an almighty scrum of tourists heading for places like Thailand. This will be all the people who missed out on that holiday they were planning before March (like me, and most of the people on this forum).

They will find everything is a lot more expensive than they were expecting, because a lot of restaurants, hotels, bars, whatever, will have folded for good during the Pandemic. There will be a lack of supply, of all the things you usually need for a tourist economy.

[StevieWonders]

They will find everything is a lot more expensive than they were expecting, because a lot of restaurants, hotels, bars, whatever, will have folded for good during the Pandemic. There will be a lack of supply, of all the things you usually need for a tourist economy.Is that what you’re experiencing in Australia now things are opening up - more expensive airfares, scarcity of bars, cafes etc. and significantly higher prices at those that have re-opened? Specific examples would be really helpful.

[dab69]

https://youtu.be/JXM249BIKQM

First Doses of Pfizer’s Covid-19 Vaccine On The Move | NBC Nightly News

United Airlines has already flown its first chartered cargo flight to the U.S. with Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine on board, according to a source familiar with the planning.

CDC will address possible use distribution and administration tomorrow.

Use for medical workers and long term care facility residents only at first.

[francois]

Here is an article in the New York Times with a great deal of info on all the vaccines that are currently under development.

Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker
By Carl Zimmer, Jonathan Corum and Sui-Lee WeeUpdated November 30, 2020


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

[Moggy]

Breaking News UK
The government has authorised the first Covid-19 vaccine after the independent medicines agency approved the Pfizer-BioNTech jab, with officials saying it will be made available “from next week”.

[latintopxxx]

why dont they get on with it..all this talking but no doing...just start injecting already...

[Moses]

just start injecting already...

10513

Beijing. People standing in line for to get SinoVac injection. China already vaccinated about 1 mln ppl within country and about half of million abroad. Because "first Covid-19 vaccine" from Pfizer costs about 10 times more.

10512

November 19. Unloading of 120000 doses SinoVac in San Paulo, Brazil.

10514

[StevieWonders]

10513

Beijing. People standing in line for to get SinoVac injection. China already vaccinated about 1 mln ppl within country and about half of million abroad. Because "first Covid-19 vaccine" from Pfizer costs about 10 times more.It’s a level playing field. Both the Russian and Chinese vaccine manufacturers are free to apply for licensing any time they like.

[Moses]

Both the Russian and Chinese vaccine manufacturers are free to apply for licensing any time they like.

You still not got? It is Pfizer and other western manufacturers who will "apply" - Indian and Chinese markets are over 40% of world market. So every one Western manufacturer will "lick Chinese hands" for to have possibility to sell there.

By the way: India just reported 94% efficacy of national vaccine
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/coronavirus-live-updates/liveblog/79521016.cms

[StevieWonders]

You still not got? It is Pfizer and other western manufacturers who will "apply" - Indian and Chinese markets are over 40% of world market. So every one Western manufacturer will "lick Chinese hands" for to have possibility to sell there.

By the way: India just reported 94% efficacy of national vaccine
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/coronavirus-live-updates/liveblog/79521016.cms
Do you get a list of talking points from the Kremlin every day?

[Moses]

Do you get a list of talking points from the Kremlin every day?

Oh dear, you starting these threads, but I "have a list"?