Getting back to Asia?

[cdnmatt]

For those of us who are tired of constantly going on dates with our hands every night...

How do you plan on getting back to SE Asia? With the pandemic, there's quite obviously a whole lot of young and cute guys who would love to make your lap their home if they could, but well, there's a once in a century global pandemic stalling things...

KKJason mentioned that Elite card holders can go back anytime, so I guess there's that if fture. Regardless of what anyone says regarding a vaccine or anything, I think it's until Summer 2021 before travel restrictions are lifted.

In all honesty, I've begun looking at NGOs such as World Vision to work for. Get a good paying gig with them, plus get a VISA as a specialized worker for Laos, plus get to help some folks out while I'm at it. Seems like a win-win-win to me.

What are your thoughts on getting yourself back to the promise land of non-stop sex with gorgeous young guys?

[StevieWonders]

For those of us who are tired of constantly going on dates with our hands every night...So Matt, when you reach the climax of your date, do you use a tissue or wipe it on the sheets and leave it for your Mum to find when she does the laundry?

[Nirish guy]

So Matt, when you reach the climax of your date, do you use a tissue or wipe it on the sheets and leave it for your Mum to find when she does the laundry?


Im guessing "sock" !

[Armando]

How many threads already exist on this topic? Why yet another one just so that cdnmatt can get a quick thrill? It's not even accurate as there is still no official word on Elite cardholders return. Enough already.

[Zebedee]

How many threads already exist on this topic? Why yet another one just so that cdnmatt can get a quick thrill? It's not even accurate as there is still no official word on Elite cardholders return. Enough already.

I think the board is now on "life support" , the well of posting material is all but dried up despite the attempts of the "regular posters" here. This is not the fault of the board, rather it's a casualty of Covid-19,I sincerely hope its not fatal. Gaybuttonthai is in its death throes, another longtime gay forum, again I hope that survives also. These really are scary times globally, at the worst possible time we have the worst possible leaders, US, UK,Brazil, Russia, WHO,even little Belarus....batten down the hatches!

[mr giggles]

For those of us who are tired of constantly going on dates with our hands every night...

How do you plan on getting back to SE Asia? With the pandemic, there's quite obviously a whole lot of young and cute guys who would love to make your lap their home if they could, but well, there's a once in a century global pandemic stalling things...

KKJason mentioned that Elite card holders can go back anytime, so I guess there's that if fture. Regardless of what anyone says regarding a vaccine or anything, I think it's until Summer 2021 before travel restrictions are lifted.

In all honesty, I've begun looking at NGOs such as World Vision to work for. Get a good paying gig with them, plus get a VISA as a specialized worker for Laos, plus get to help some folks out while I'm at it. Seems like a win-win-win to me.

What are your thoughts on getting yourself back to the promise land of non-stop sex with gorgeous young guys?

How do you intend to work for the NGOs when you are legally blind?

[Armando]

I think the board is now on "life support" , the well of posting material is all but dried up despite the attempts of the "regular posters" here. This is not the fault of the board, rather it's a casualty of Covid-19,I sincerely hope its not fatal. Gaybuttonthai is in its death throes, another longtime gay forum, again I hope that survives also. These really are scary times globally, at the worst possible time we have the worst possible leaders, US, UK,Brazil, Russia, WHO,even little Belarus....batten down the hatches!

Since Zebedee has brought it up, this forum has usually had quite a variety of topics. Gaybuttonthai has lost most of its regular posters and its variety of threads have diminished almost to just Trump and covid19. Even Dodger seems to have abandoned it. The Gay Guides Thailand board suffers because it has depended for too long on endless trip reports which its overseas readers seem to need on a regular basis. Are there no posters around with interests other than sex - and occasionally food? (I know I have to add myself in with that group unfortunately).

Looking forward to Christianpfc's promised exploits in Brazil. Hope he escaped the virus there unlike so many thanks to its idiotic leader.

[Dodger]

Are there no posters around with interests other than sex - and occasionally food?.....

No

[cdnmatt]

I think the board is now on "life support" , the well of posting material is all but dried up despite the attempts of the "regular posters.

I don't know, this is SGT after all. Would you like me to discuss NASA's Artemis mission with its four planned ventures to the moom to setup both, a permanent moon base plus a lunar orbiting base that will act as a propellent allowing space ships in the future to gain velocity for long distance travel? It's honestly a really cool mission, and unfortunately, nobody even seems to know it's happening. It's starting this year, and should be completed 2024.

Or should I discuss how to properly configure redis-cluster to efficiently handle horizontal scaling across a dozen server instances?

Or should we get into politics, and discuss something such as the pros and cons of UBI?

Nope. This is SGT, so think I'll just stick to discussing the joys of haing a freshly showered, cute 20 year old sitting on my lap earing nothing more than a towel.

[Zebedee]

Are there no posters around with interests other than sex - and occasionally food? (I know I have to add myself in with that group unfortunately).



No

LOL






Not laughing at you Armando,its just I can relate too well to Dodgers reply and it pretty much says it all.

[cdnmatt]

How do you intend to work for the NGOs when you are legally blind?

What? Do you think blind people are incapable of working, or something?

I'm extremely good at what I do, thank you very much.

[Armando]

Or should I discuss how to properly configure redis-cluster to efficiently handle horizontal scaling across a dozen server instances?

Nope. This is SGT, so think I'll just stick to discussing the joys of haing a freshly showered, cute 20 year old sitting on my lap earing nothing more than a towel.

Personally I prefer the boys without the towels but then to each his own.

There must be something of gay interest in Canada that would excite readers of SGT with Laos being a distant memory. How about something about cute Asian Canadian figure skaters? Is Nathan Chan one? The aggressively cute double Olympic Champion Yuzuru Hanyu trains in Canada with the openly gay former skier Brian Orser and sometimes wears costumes by a gay designer. Must be some nice gossip there.

No Asian Canadian K Pop singers? You are surrounded there by Asians.

[Smiles]

"No"Speak for yourself Dodger.

[Dodger]

......should I discuss how to properly configure redis-cluster to efficiently handle horizontal scaling across a dozen server instances?



Why only a dozen?

[Dodger]

Speak for yourself Dodger.

The answer would still be "No".

[Smiles]

"... I'm extremely good at what I do, thank you very much ..."Does that include all of the boyfriends you've described to this Sawatdee message board over 7 or 8+ years as ALL being the loves-of-your-life (and unfortunately, him), and whom ALL turned out -according to you, one by one - to be fucking assholes, liars, cheaters, idiots, clueless fuckheads ... etc etc etc.?

(And we shall not mention about your staying in Thailand for years without a visa, a few steps in front of the Police, and the fact that you will probably never be allowed in Thailand ever again ... notwithstanding the Virus.)

PS: Never trust a dude who says things like this: "I'm extremely good at what I do",
They are always grifters, or Donald Trump.

[extronaut]

I've abandoned any hope of getting back until at least mid 22.

Even if there's an approved vaccine being mass produced by December, it's going to take months, maybe even years, to distribute it.

And once it is, and the borders are open, there's going to be such an almighty tourist rush, that for about a year, traveling anywhere will feel like being wedged in a rugby scrum.

And by the time I finally get back to my favourite places I used to visit on holiday (e.g, my favourite bar in Bangkok, my favourite restaurant in Siem Reap, my favourite Street cafe in Sài Gòn) it's very unlikely that they won't be profoundly different.

[Zebedee]

I've abandoned any hope of getting back until at least mid 22.

Even if there's an approved vaccine being mass produced by December, it's going to take months, maybe even years, to distribute it.

And once it is, and the borders are open, there's going to be such an almighty tourist rush, that for about a year, traveling anywhere will feel like being wedged in a rugby scrum.

And by the time I finally get back to my favourite places I used to visit on holiday (e.g, my favourite bar in Bangkok, my favourite restaurant in Siem Reap, my favourite Street cafe in Sài Gòn) it's very unlikely that they won't be profoundly different.

WOW, even I couldn't match that level of pessimism.

TAT will soon erect a new sign at suvarnabhumi to match the mood:

"ABANDON ALL HOPE YE WHO ENTER HERE"


LOL

[gerefan2]

. This is SGT, so think I'll just stick to discussing the joys of haing a freshly showered, cute 20 year old sitting on my lap earing nothing more than a towel.

I recall you telling us you use some form of Braille app read this forum and to type your replies.

How come it has made 2 spelling mistakes in that simple 2 line sentence. They are not even words.

Get real.

[cdnmatt]

I recall you telling us you use some form of Braille app read this forum and to type your replies.

How come it has made 2 spelling mistakes in that simple 2 line sentence. They are not even words.

Get real.


No, all you folks on SGT are just old and forgetful. As I've asid probably hundreds of times now, I use a screen reader, same as all blind folks do.

Not even going to bother trying to explain it anymore. Go Google it, or maybe search Youtube for "blind guy using screen reader", and I'm sure it'll come up.

[Marc K]

My God I am always amazed that when gay people get pressured by something (no easy return to Thailand?) they turn on each other with the most dreadful ridicule. What gives with us? Even throwing a bucket of shit at those with a physical challenge?? Come'on folks it is time to be nice. I really don't need to read this crap on our own board, I would expect it on an anti-gay or Trump-lovers board perhaps but not here! Please!

<end rant>

As for the Canadian cuties, hey there is an ample supply around the world. Here in Hawaii we have the hunky canoe-boys (it takes some endurance to be able to paddle your way across the Moloka'i Channel!) We have the smooth brown surfer-boys. They just can't seem to get out of the water long enough -- even the "surfettes" (always in hot pursuit alas!) have difficulty convincing them to partake in life's pleasures. They are more like fish than boys. : ) And we have scads of Asian military boys milling about with horniness on their minds.

So, come to think about it, why do I even care to come to Thailand any more? Cheap sex? Well maybe but with social distancing guidelines it is tough to have sex at a distance of 2m, no?

<final thought>

I do hope this board (along with GB and GGs) does not pass into oblivion. That would be a pity.

<final, final thought>

It's an open question as to whether the big wigs in Thailand really would want us to return to their country. I'm not sure we contribute more than we take away...

[gerefan2]

My God I am always amazed that when gay people get pressured by something (no easy return to Thailand?) they turn on each other with the most dreadful ridicule..

As you have only been here for a few months I don’t suppose you have read all of cdmatt’s posts. They have been going on for years and years.
He provokes members with dubious and far fetched tales and some just say it as we see it.

Hence my observation about his screen reader making numerous spelling mistakes!

Mods have always tolerated it because it also increases the board traffic, which was your other worry!

Not “ridicule” ....more like banter.

[StevieWonders]

As you have only been here for a few months I don’t suppose you have read all of cdmatt’s posts. They have been going on for years and years. He provokes members with dubious and far fetched tales and some just say it as we see it.On the other hand a previous owner, Surfcrest (where is he now?), has more than once acknowledged that Matt helped him bring the Forum back on an even keel IT-wise following the depredations of Surfcrest’s predecessor. As I recall Matt is responsible for devising the solution to people attempting to maintain multiple posting handles.

[arsenal]

Walter Matty wrote.
"In all honesty, I've begun looking at NGOs such as World Vision to work for. Get a good paying gig with them, plus get a VISA as a specialized worker for Laos,"

I'm thinking a magic carpet.

[Zebedee]

On the other hand a previous owner, Surfcrest (where is he now?), has more than once acknowledged that Matt helped him bring the Forum back on an even keel IT-wise following the depredations of Surfcrest’s predecessor. As I recall Matt is responsible for devising the solution to people attempting to maintain multiple posting handles.

I think gerefan2 is hinting that cdmatt is not all that he appears to be,in fact he may be the creation of one individual that has other "poster" names under his control. They appear on the board from time to time when needed by the puppet master. Its been going on for years...practically the "business model" . No harm as long as you understand that at times you are actually really only communicating with the same individual in different personas. Remember this board is a business not a free community service, the real posters are both the product and the consumer, and yes I still enjoy it.

[Armando]

As I recall Matt is responsible for devising the solution to people attempting to maintain multiple posting handles.
Well that didn't work very well did it? Wasn't it some months before SugarGrandpa and SGlad were discovered to be one and the same? That resulted in a permanent ban but surfcrest decided the Board needed gingering up and let the younger one (LOL) back. If you can call a non Singaporean, non Chinese and non guy in his 20s younger, that is (LOL)

[Zebedee]

The whole thing is a hoot,and should not be taken too seriously,after all in normal circumstances pre Covid-19 these boards and this one in particular are a valuable resource for the gay traveller to Thailand and other SEA countries. That should be the priority for the punters, everything else is secondary. Trying to use internet boards as a social outlet can be disappointing, you really have no clue as to who you're dealing with although you might think you do. On the other side of the coin, the board has to keep the show on the road, this is not always easy to do, especially these days, what to do? And that brings us to the subject of the last few posts on this thread!

[cdnmatt]

Oh fuck, you guys are hilarious. I'll happily state, this is my one and only posting handle.

[Manforallseasons]

Assuredly, frequent, sglad etc. are always with us.

[Zebedee]

Assuredly, frequent, sglad etc. are always with us.

"In the pipe five by five"

[extronaut]

WOW, even I couldn't match that level of pessimism.


Ok, argue with me then.

It's gonna be some time December/January before the first vaccine is approved.

Takes some time to produce, and distribute it. Allow at least six months in most Western countries, probably more before everyone get access to the jab.

Assume the best case scenario: we're all fully vaccinated, or at least vaccinated enough that we're immune for such months. In that situation, there's going to be an absolute explosion of people going on their overseas holidays. The cost of a seat on an airliner is going to be insane. Not to need the difficulty in finding a decent, reasonably priced hotel in Silom, Pattaya, or whatever. A lot of those places will have closed down, so hotel rooms will be at a premium. Everything would be at a premium for that matter.

That's the best case scenario.

A more realistic one is that we don't ask get access to the vaccine inside of 12 months. Or alternatively, we do, but no governments have complete faith in its efficacy, so even if you do manage to get back to Thailand, they will make you socially isolate for two weeks, just to be on the safe side.

I really think that it will be bloody difficult to get back to S E Asia for the next 14 months, at least. I'm not counting on being able to use my annual holiday until around mid 22'.

Happy to be proven wrong.

[christianpfc]

In all honesty, I've begun looking at NGOs such as World Vision to work for. Get a good paying gig with them, plus get a VISA as a specialized worker for Laos, plus get to help some folks out while I'm at it. Seems like a win-win-win to me.
I first thought "World Vision" is a reference to cndmatt's blindness, but "vision" in their name is not "the ability to see" but "the ability to imagine how a country, society, industry, etc. could develop in the future and to plan for this" (from: https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/vision)

I guess cndmatt is not the only one desperately trying to get back to SEAsia (I know I'm too!) but currently not qualifying for access and looking for alternatives.

My plans on getting back to Asia are either STV for Thailand or business visa for Cambodia. I have dozens of boys eagerly awaiting my return to Thailand, and a handful for Cambodia. I should ask them to send a petition to the Prime Minister.

[Zebedee]

Ok, argue with me then.

It's gonna be some time December/January before the first vaccine is approved.

Takes some time to produce, and distribute it. Allow at least six months in most Western countries, probably more before everyone get access to the jab.

Assume the best case scenario: we're all fully vaccinated, or at least vaccinated enough that we're immune for such months. In that situation, there's going to be an absolute explosion of people going on their overseas holidays. The cost of a seat on an airliner is going to be insane. Not to need the difficulty in finding a decent, reasonably priced hotel in Silom, Pattaya, or whatever. A lot of those places will have closed down, so hotel rooms will be at a premium. Everything would be at a premium for that matter.

That's the best case scenario.

A more realistic one is that we don't ask get access to the vaccine inside of 12 months. Or alternatively, we do, but no governments have complete faith in its efficacy, so even if you do manage to get back to Thailand, they will make you socially isolate for two weeks, just to be on the safe side.

I really think that it will be bloody difficult to get back to S E Asia for the next 14 months, at least. I'm not counting on being able to use my annual holiday until around mid 22'.

Happy to be proven wrong.

LOL
I'm not going to argue with you, I just couldn't compete with your outlook...at the time, but NOW, I'll see your pessimism and raise you:
in the event of any vaccine being discovered ( unlikely ),and even if there is, the chances of it being effective for anyone over 55 years of age are pretty low. Something to do with a reduced immune system as a function of age....no matter how "fit" we are.

[arsenal]

Vietnam has recommenced flights to Guangdong. Small steps. And this idea that everyone has to be vaccinated before anyone can travel is nonsense. Why is any govt going to care if Bob the builder from Barnsley is vaccinated when it's Mr Ben the baker from Barnstable who wants to visit.

I will he very surprised if most of you don't get your winter willy warmer in Thailand at some point.

[Brad the Impala]

Why is any govt going to care if Bob the builder from Barnsley is vaccinated when it's Mr Ben the baker from Barnstable who wants to visit.



Have you been playing Happy Families again? I expect Roger the fireman is in there somewhere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Happy_Families

[Zebedee]

Why is any govt going to care if Bob the builder from Barnsley is vaccinated when it's Mr Ben the baker from Barnstable who wants to visit.

I think you're mistaken there arsenal, it was "Two Ton Ted from Teddington
And HE drove the bakers van"
And forget about the FAT CONTROLLER, obesity is high risk category!


But I get your drift.

[gerefan2]

Arsenal
I was just wondering...how will Thai Immigration react to an Englishman arriving in Thailand on a flight from China...before the borders are fully open?

[StevieWonders]

LOL
I'm not going to argue with you, I just couldn't compete with your outlook...at the time, but NOW, I'll see your pessimism and raise you:
in the event of any vaccine being discovered ( unlikely ),and even if there is, the chances of it being effective for anyone over 55 years of age are pretty low. Something to do with a reduced immune system as a function of age....no matter how "fit" we are.
I’ve been basing my forecast of Songkran 2021 on the presumption that once vaccinations commence governments will be under enormous pressure to start letting those who can prove they’ve been vaccinated to travel. There won’t be some sort of threshold before which there’s no travel and after which it’s open slather. It will take a while to find out whether any given vaccine is effective and for whom; no government will be waiting for absolute certainty so protocols will be put in place

[extronaut]

@Stevie exactly. Even if they do start vaccinating people in December/January, nobody's saying the first vaccine will be 100% guarantee of immunity. Anything beyond 50% efficacy is considered a good vaccine. So social distancing and quarantine will be necessary for a while yet.

My hope is that maybe, just maybe, by the end of 2021 there will be a whole suite of vaccines you can take, to effectively make your chances of contracting the virus near enough to 0. Maybe there will be more effective treatments by then, so even if you do catch it, it's a bit less of a crisis.

Until then, anybody getting off of a plane anywhere, be that Suvarnabhumi, Heathrow, Tullamarine, or anywhere, is a public health risk and probably should be in quarantine, at least until they get the results of a DNA test back.

[StevieWonders]

My hope is that maybe, just maybe, by the end of 2021 there will be a whole suite of vaccines you can take, to effectively make your chances of contracting the virus near enough to 0.Will wearing a tin hat be mandatory?

[Marc K]

All this endless speculation about when our willies will get back to Thailand really is not very productive. We'll get back when we get back. Nobody knows what is going to happen.

But we have bigger fish to fry here:

1. Do the Thais want/need us to come back? (Not so sure given they have an endless supply of rapidly escalating Chinese nearby.)

2. Will there be anything to come back to? (Again, not so sure that a gay scene will exist by then, and we end up with something similar to other decimated gay scenes in the world -- been to Kerkstraat or the Castro lately??)

3. Will we be able to afford to go back? (High airfares, high lodging costs, costs of constant testing, new Visa "bargain" schemes, unaffordable health insurance costs -- say goodbye to a cheap holiday in Thailand? Think Singapore prices before too long.)


Now that is all quite depressing I agree!

[gerefan2]

1. The Thais in general don’t need the gays to return. The scene was deteriorating before Covid struck and the number of gay tourists is minimal in the overall tourist picture.

2. I know 8 boys very well who worked in Sunee and BT. Only two of them remain in Pattaya. I do not think my experience is unusual. It would be interesting to hear about other posters “friends”.
Therefore I conclude that, if and when, we return it will be to a “new “ Thailand.

Kerkstraat and Amsterdam in general ran down at least 15 years ago and I haven’t bothered to return since. Hence I go to Thailand.

I don’t do the USA so cannot comment.

3. You’re probably right about increased costs inThailand, but they have been rising a lot in recent years. Think of drink prices, hotel prices, food and off fees. Airfares have decreased in recent years. In fact BA are currently offering a return from London to Bangkok for £ 400, leaving at the end of November . Its obviously another BA con as there is no indication that any flights will happen by then. Do NOT lend them your money!

I suspect that if you are an early returner costs will be reasonable until the Thais start jacking up prices again.

The main hurdle, as I said back in March, will be Thai bureaucracy and associates costs. You can see it already.

[Zebedee]

Admittedly it's not all doom and gloom, lately something seems to have changed regarding the Virus behaviour,while the number of infections are soaring the corresponding deaths have fallen significantly. Killing its hosts is a bad strategy it seems.There have been some theories put out by way of explanation but none are science based,eg better healthcare management, the elderly are self isolating,the most vulnerable have died off, none of these explain the reduced death numbers. Having said that,with the approaching winter and the usual flu season combined with Covid-19, deaths are expected to increase. Any posters living under those circumstances should be more concerned about their own survival,than thai boys bums. I'm fortunate....so far.... living here in Western Australia it seems to be a very safe place to be. Stay Safe!

[StevieWonders]

One of the problems with basing your assumptions on reports from The Seaside Brothel Also Known As Pattaya is that it doesn't reflect real life. On Friday evening, for example, Silom Soi 4 (you know, in Bangkok), while not bustling, was certainly buzzing by the time I went home after dinner. One of my favourite waiters at Balcony, V, wasn't working that particular evening so I ate elsewhere (Telephone if you must know). There are 3 bars in Soi 4 now owned by Australians - Telephone, Connections and Pride

Despite Thailand's same-sex sex trade being more and more reliant on Khmer, Lao and Burmese guys, most of whom returned to their home countries several months ago, the "hook-up” Apps still have a fair sprinkling of money boys. The outside area at Banana Bar is open again and there were two or three guys lurking there as I departed. Hotmale around in Patpong seems out to attract those who like the Tawan style of guy (Muscle Marys), The border with Cambodia is still porous and I've heard tales of Cambodians slipping back across the border, but heading for Bangkok as they stick out less there than in a country town like Pattaya

[Manforallseasons]

Will there be anything to come back to? (Again, not so sure that a gay scene will exist by then, and we end up with something similar to other decimated gay scenes in the world)

This is the most relevant point.

[Dodger]

Posted by Marc K

1. Do the Thais want/need us to come back? (Not so sure given they have an endless supply of rapidly escalating Chinese nearby.)

Opinion: Yes, but they can't afford to have us back right now. In the immediate future, the Covid Council (CSSA) isn't going to allow entry to tourists coming from high risk countries. That's the bottom line. The middle-class Chinese (which previously formed the bulk of Chinese tourists in Thailand), only take 14 day holidays - and with a 14 day quarantine being imposed, they won't be returning either. It's clear that Thailand's sights right now are focused on the rich & famous just to get some revenue in the value-steam. I assume the tourists who are allowed entry in the future (end of 2021 possibly) will be coming from select provinces in China, Singapore, Taiwan, and possibly a few others.

2. Will there be anything to come back to? (Again, not so sure that a gay scene will exist by then, and we end up with something similar to other decimated gay scenes in the world -- been to Kerkstraat or the Castro lately??)

Opinion: Yes. With the shattered economy in Thailand, venues that support the Sex Industry will always be here. One could assume that the number of prostitutes offering their services in Thailand will increase exponentially due to these factors. For those who come back to enjoy the culture, golden temples, spicy food, and abundance of sunshine, these things are also permanent fixtures in Thailand and will certainly be here as well.

3. Will we be able to afford to go back? (High airfares, high lodging costs, costs of constant testing, new Visa "bargain" schemes, unaffordable health insurance costs -- say goodbye to a cheap holiday in Thailand? Think Singapore prices before too long.

Opinion: Some will, some won't. Prices in the Airline Industry probably won't start to decline (or, normalize) for several years. Hotels, booze, and a boy-toy in Thailand, could actually be cheaper.

[arsenal]

gerefan2 asked.
"Arsenal
I was just wondering...how will Thai Immigration react to an Englishman arriving in Thailand on a flight from China...before the borders are fully open?"

The usual way I should think. With a cheesy grin, an over emphasised wink and a knowing tap on the nose.

[arsenal]

And now this. The news is actually getting better by the week.

https://gaybuttonthai.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=10506

[Armando]

Posted by Marc K

1. Do the Thais want/need us to come back? (Not so sure given they have an endless supply of rapidly escalating Chinese nearby.)

Opinion: Yes, but they can't afford to have us back right now. In the immediate future, the Covid Council (CSSA) isn't going to allow entry to tourists coming from high risk countries. That's the bottom line. The middle-class Chinese (which previously formed the bulk of Chinese tourists in Thailand), only take 14 day holidays - and with a 14 day quarantine being imposed, they won't be returning either. It's clear that Thailand's sights right now are focused on the rich & famous just to get some revenue in the value-steam. I assume the tourists who are allowed entry in the future (end of 2021 possibly) will be coming from select provinces in China, Singapore, Taiwan, and possibly a few others.

2. Will there be anything to come back to? (Again, not so sure that a gay scene will exist by then, and we end up with something similar to other decimated gay scenes in the world -- been to Kerkstraat or the Castro lately??)

Opinion: Yes. With the shattered economy in Thailand, venues that support the Sex Industry will always be here. One could assume that the number of prostitutes offering their services in Thailand will increase exponentially due to these factors. For those who come back to enjoy the culture, golden temples, spicy food, and abundance of sunshine, these things are also permanent fixtures in Thailand and will certainly be here as well.

3. Will we be able to afford to go back? (High airfares, high lodging costs, costs of constant testing, new Visa "bargain" schemes, unaffordable health insurance costs -- say goodbye to a cheap holiday in Thailand? Think Singapore prices before too long.

Opinion: Some will, some won't. Prices in the Airline Industry probably won't start to decline (or, normalize) for several years. Hotels, booze, and a boy-toy in Thailand, could actually be cheaper.

1, Place me in the opposite camp. gerfan2's point No. 1 specifically mentions gay tourists. Media reports on opening up tourism have been saying one thing one day and then a different one the next. One thing is for sure. Low spending gay tourists are going to be near the bottom of the list allowed in. Taken as a whole, the typical gay tourism business does not contribute more than a tiny fraction of overall tourism revenues. Let's face it. Apart from Bangkok and Pattaya it has been close to life support elsewhere for some years. Have you looked at the number of closures in Chiang Mai in recent years? At least 50 have either gone or come and quickly gone. Even in the 2 main sex cities the gay tourist scene is much smaller now than it used to be in its heyday of the 1990s.

Will regional tourism be the first to recover? No idea.

2. If regional tourists are the first in, the future looks bleak for the bars. We know that guys from the Chinese diaspora are much more interested in massage, saunas and disco. If they do attend a gogo bar it is usually after a session in a sauna or for a massage, dinner and then a quick visit to see a show before moving on. So the bars get a few hundred baht for one drink and then it's bye bye as disco time beckons. In my crystal ball the only hope for survival of the logo bars are the Chinese ladies and how many gays want to be in a bar surrounded by giggling mostly middle-aged women prepared to pay much more to off the f**k of their dreams than the typical gay tourist?

3. Costs have to rise. When the going gets tough/has been tough it is just not in the Thai way of thinking to reduce prices to stimulate demand. Prices just go up! If what we read is accurate, then tourist arrivals in Thailand will be limited to 1,200 or so per month and only on special charter flights. Of course if your private jet is sitting out in the hanger waiting for a warm up, you can use that LOL. Seriously though, hotels cannot operate anywhere like efficiently if there are only a tiny number of tourists spread amongst them. Even 2 and 3 star hotels need a certain volume to stay afloat. Some hotels are already closed. More almost certainly will. Those kitted out as quarantine hotels must be thanking the Almighty as it at least guarantees tham some level of on going income.

Same with airlines. The losses so far incurred will surely be just a fraction of total losses once this pandemic is over. They have to make money somehow. Perhaps as markets slowly open up there will be reduced prices to try and grab market share. Thereafter, I see the cheap seats at the back of the planes rising very significantly. Scrambling to find £450 return flights from London will become a thing of the past. Instead of two visits a year, many gay tourists particularly retirees will cut back to one.

4. One last point but relating to gerefan2's first point. Do the elites in this country still want Thailand to be known as the gay capital of Asia? I think it has been obvious for years that they do not. Sure they want gay tourism because like many countries they want the pink dollar. But there are a great many gay tourists who are not interested in commercial gay sex. As gerefan2 pointed out, the commercial gay scene in many cities elsewhere is a shadow of what it once was. Thos who are gay may ridicule Ministers who say gay tourists should be interested in beaches, food, culture etc. The fact is that most are. Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Hong Kong, Taipei, Tokyo and many other Asian cities have a commercial sex scene. Only they are not nearly in your face as those in Thailand. The elites want their face scrubbed clean - and who is going to say they will not achieve it?

[Manforallseasons]

A reality check: Gay tourism to Thailand has been on the wain for years. Bangkok’s gay scene is almost unrecognizable to Soi Twilight of the past, Pattaya is a mere relic of its former self. Even before Covid Pattaya’s gay scene has been marching toward the grave led by aging foreigners. As noted in the above post gay tourism is small to the point of irrelevance and as the government would like to change the image of a sex destination Covid has certainly helped them in their pursuit.

[arsenal]

The only people who are separating tourists into sexual orientation are here. I don't believe that as a demographic they constitute 5 minutes of anybody in authority's time.

[goji]

A reality check: Gay tourism to Thailand has been on the wain for years. Bangkok’s gay scene is almost unrecognizable to Soi Twilight of the past, Pattaya is a mere relic of its former self.

You might be right, but here's an alternative hypothesis:
1 I would think the number of gay tourists from western countries is falling no faster than the number of straight tourists from those countries.
Weak currencies will be a factor in the decline, due to mismanagement of western economies and the THB slowly recovering to a fair valuation after the effects of the Asian financial crises work out of the system.
Arguably the number of western gay tourists should decline more slowly than straight tourists, as many gay guys earn enough to live quite well and don't have a wife and 4 kids "needing" new iPhones every year. Thailand remains very affordable.
As people can get better results finding a boy on Grindr than by going to a bar, it follows that some of the VISIBLE gay scene will decline, so bar activity is not the best measure of gay tourism.
Then as Chinese tourists displace western tourists priced out of the market by currency movements, perhaps a smaller percentage of the Chinese tourists are openly gay, due to culture and politics at home.


2 The bars in Bangkok have not declined that much in the last decade. They are just more dispersed now, due to relocation. The Pattaya bar scene clearly HAS declined in that time.

All my observations are pre-covid.

I tend to agree with Arsenal -there's no need to split tourists by sexual orientation. Just make sure there is no discrimination in policy.

[a447]

Armando wrote:

Thereafter, I see the cheap seats at the back of the planes rising very significantly.

Either that or the airlines will simply increase the number of business class seats at the expense of cheaper economy class.

That way it is easier to ensure social distancing. For example Emirates and Cathay Pacific business class consists of individual pods where you sit in splendid isolation.

And the airlines can dramatically increase their profits. They'd be more than happy to get rid of economy class - or at least decrease the number of seats - because they don't make any money.

So that's another reason why travel is going to be far more expensive once this nightmare is over.

[cdnmatt]

With all this talk about travel, I don't know about you guys, but I'm waiting for Musk's land-to-land transportation system via the BFR that he proposed. New York to Beijing in 30 minutes, sounds great to me.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/29/16383048/elon-musk-spacex-rocket-transport-earth-travel

I don't know about you guys, but I would love to get blasted off at 18,000 miles per-hour.

[Dodger]

......Sure they want gay tourism because like many countries they want the pink dollar. But there are a great many gay tourists who are not interested in commercial gay sex. As gerefan2 pointed out, the commercial gay scene in many cities elsewhere is a shadow of what it once was.

You raise some interesting points.

The gay scenes in the West have changed dramatically over the past few decades which can probably be attributed to the fact that "being gay" is more widely accepted in society...fewer young people feel the need to remain in the closet...and the days of the gay bars being hidden in dark alleyways in less-than-desirable neighborhoods are pretty much over - where being gay is almost in fashion. These isolated "gay-only" scenes seem to be shrinking in general.

I really don't think the powers-to-be care about the gay scene too much at all. At least not as much as some would believe, because it represents such small percentage of the Sex Industry as a whole.

As far as gay tourists coming to Thailand goes, from what I've seen, the grand majority are coming here to have sex with Thai boys. Simple as that. I can count the ones who aren't on one hand.

[Nirish guy]

.....the grand majority are coming here to have sex with Thai boys. Simple as that. I can count the ones who aren't on one hand.

And the ones who aren't are no doubt using that very thing for their own release just - i.e. one hand !! :-)

[Zebedee]

I don't know about you guys, but I would love to get blasted off at 18,000 miles per-hour.

I've a feeling a few here might like to witness that..... to cheer you on...I mean!


LOL

[cdnmatt]

I've a feeling a few here might like to witness that..... to cheer you on...I mean!


LOL


Hey, he was the first commercial company in human history to send humans to the International Space Station, so don't rule out this possibility. We could have inter-continental travel that takes ~25 mins in the future.

I'm still waiting on his Neural Link. The press conference he did a few months ago with the pigs was quite disappointing.

[Armando]

Either that or the airlines will simply increase the number of business class seats at the expense of cheaper economy class.

That way it is easier to ensure social distancing. For example Emirates and Cathay Pacific business class consists of individual pods where you sit in splendid isolation..
They don't have to bother taking out a lot of economy seats to make a larger biz class. There are between 12 and 15 different price codes for a simple economy seat. The price differential for these can be up to 400%. All they need do is cut off the bottom half dozen and their revenue from the back cabins rises dramatically assuming there is a public to buy them.




1. The gay scenes in the West have changed dramatically over the past few decades which can probably be attributed to the fact that "being gay" is more widely accepted in society...fewer young people feel the need to remain in the closet...and the days of the gay bars being hidden in dark alleyways in less-than-desirable neighborhoods are pretty much over - where being gay is almost in fashion. These isolated "gay-only" scenes seem to be shrinking in general.

2. As far as gay tourists coming to Thailand goes, from what I've seen, the grand majority are coming here to have sex with Thai boys. Simple as that. I can count the ones who aren't on one hand.

1. But if gays are now more accepted and more in the 'open', how is that gogo bars in major western cities that used to be gay haunts have rapidly declined? Surely the gay venues should also have come out of their back alleys. And if it is easier being openly gay, shouldn't there be more gay bars/clubs not less? Yet Amsterdam, Prague, Hamburg. You name them. All have seen major declines in gay venues. Why should Bangkok and Pattaya be any different?

2. At the end of my earlier long post, I should have referred to the sex industry as a whole rather than just the gay part.

[goji]

There are fewer bookshops because of the internet and that's no bad thing, as the on line service is much more convenient. Books even fit through my letterbox. Then if I go on holiday, Kindle means I don't have to think about books adding mass to the luggage.

The same internet disruption has been seen in many other areas of retail & service provision. Including prostitution.
In addition to Planet Romeo, Grindr etc, I would guess there are also apps with girls hiring themselves out in Thailand, but do not know for sure.

[a447]

Armando wrote:

The price differential for these can be up to 400%.

Yes, but still cheaper than business class.

If they decide to leave the middle seat empty in economy class, prices will have to rise substantially. If they get close to business class prices they might as well just add more business seats. After the Covid nightmare is over (or under control), there will be a huge rush to grab seats as we all start to travel again. There will be no shortage of travellers who will be willing to pay almost any price just to be able to fly again. It will be a seller's market.

That's my take on things, anyhow.

[extronaut]

Will wearing a tin hat be mandatory?

Hey it's just a hope of mine.

I really think that returning the world to any semblance of pre Covid-19-ness, will require the combination of multiple vaccines + effective treatments.

I don't think it's unrealistic either. There are hundreds of vaccines in development right now, not unreasonable to expect we'll have at least a handful by the end of next year.

Only question is: will Thailand, and indeed the whole SE Asian region, have profoundly changed by then? Like most in thread, I think they will.

[Armando]

Armando wrote:


Yes, but still cheaper than business class.

If they decide to leave the middle seat empty in economy class, prices will have to rise substantially. If they get close to business class prices they might as well just add more business seats. After the Covid nightmare is over (or under control), there will be a huge rush to grab seats as we all start to travel again. There will be no shortage of travellers who will be willing to pay almost any price just to be able to fly again. It will be a seller's market.

That's my take on things, anyhow.

Cheaper than biz class? Maybe just! But remember that a biz class seat takes up the space of at least 5 economy seats. Most airlines have 4 across biz seating with flat beds stretching at least 66 inches. Further back they have 9 across in economy with seat pitch of 32 inches. Even with social distancing they still cram a lot more in those cabins than increasing the number of biz seats,

I personally doubt if there will be such a rush to purchase expensive biz class tickets once travel opens up. So many who have travelled and want to travel will have suffered economic losses during the pandemic and will not be able to afford expensive tickets. But then we are in the realms of speculation again.

[gerefan2]

I personally doubt if there will be such a rush to purchase expensive biz class tickets once travel opens up. So many who have travelled and want to travel will have suffered economic losses during the pandemic and will not be able to afford expensive tickets. But then we are in the realms of speculation again.

On the other hand a lot passengers like myself will have missed out on two trips per year and so will have saved quite a bit of money on those holidays. Not just the flights but everything else as well.

They should have the extra money for at least one business class return journey.

[a447]

So many who have travelled and want to travel will have suffered economic losses during the pandemic and will not be able to afford expensive tickets.

Yes, that's true.

But not everyone is in that category so I think there will still be a large number of potential flyers, including those mentioned by gerefan2. And desperadoes like me! Lol

As for ticket prices, God only knows.

[Dodger]

.....But if gays are now more accepted and more in the 'open', how is that gogo bars in major western cities that used to be gay haunts have rapidly declined? Surely the gay venues should also have come out of their back alleys. And if it is easier being openly gay, shouldn't there be more gay bars/clubs not less? ..

Maybe this is because "gays" are much more accepted in society now and don't feel the need to isolate in the traditional gay bars and venues which were popular in the old days. Gays still like to mingle with other gays, and cruising is still a hot ticket, so gay bars and other gay venues have not disappeared entirely, but are fewer in number.

The commercial gay scene in Thailand started dwindling back around 2008, eons before the corona virus was invented, when a huge percentage of gay tourists stopped coming to Thailand. This rapid decline in "demand" caused an immediate decline in "supply", where a large percentage of sexual services are now being facilitated on the gay dating apps.

Gogo bars, as much as we like them, will probably continue to disappear, even in Thailand. The boys have already figured out that the bulk of the money they earn comes from an average of 1-1/2 hours they are actually back in a room servicing a farang - where the 4-5 hours they spend standing on a stage in their underwear is totally non-value added. This entertainment primarily serves the bar owners - not the working boys. The dating apps are just too convinient...no mamasans to deal with...flexible hours...can be selective in their customers...and apply their entrepreneurial skills to earn even more money in the process.

[StevieWonders]

Gogo bars, as much as we like them, will probably continue to disappear, even in Thailand. The boys have already figured out that the bulk of the money they earn comes from an average of 1-1/2 hours they are actually back in a room servicing a farang - where the 4-5 hours they spend standing on a stage in their underwear is totally non-value added.Have you never been in a Central department store? Being a shop assistant there must be the most god-awful job in Thailand in terms of hanging around doing bugger all.

Mind you, when Richard St Laurent owned Telephone Bar (Silom Soi 4 for the geographically challenged) he told me he once went to buy a pair of trousers in the Robinsons that was on the corner of Rama 4 and Silom, and while trying them on in the change rooms the shop assistant came in and gave him a head job.

But, let’s face it, there’s really no need for old sodomites to travel the world in search of young flesh, it’s readily available closer to home.

[Armando]

But, let’s face it, there’s really no need for old sodomites to travel the world in search of young flesh, it’s readily available closer to home.

Not much sun, beach, cheap booze and eye candy walking around tho. And still nosy neighbours to contend with.

[gerefan2]

But, let’s face it, there’s really no need for old sodomites to travel the world in search of young flesh, it’s readily available closer to home.

I take it you haven’t been to the UK!

[arsenal]

Dodger wrote.
"The boys have already figured out that the bulk of the money they earn comes from an average of 1-1/2 hours they are actually back in a room servicing a farang - where the 4-5 hours they spend standing on a stage in their underwear is totally non-value added"

Sorry Dodger but that simply isn't true. They get tips for gropes, having a drink and some fun with a customer, a meal from the owner. No go go bar has ever had a problem finding boys. It's finding the customers that is the problem..

[Manforallseasons]

No go go bar has ever had a problem finding boys. It's finding the customers that is the problem..

I disagree, case in point is “Nice Boys” where the owner makes little effort to find new boys, as the tired old staff dwindles so do the customers.

[Armando]

No go go bar has ever had a problem finding boys. It's finding the customers that is the problem..

Don't they find it increasingly difficult finding Thai boys? Seems increasingly there are more Lao, Cambodian and Vietnamese boys in most of the bars. These boys must be in the country illegally. One raid and they disappear into the shadows. After a few raids how many will just give up?

[Dodger]

Sorry Dodger but that simply isn't true. They get tips for gropes, having a drink and some fun with a customer, a meal from the owner. No go go bar has ever had a problem finding boys. It's finding the customers that is the problem..

If you were to divide the total amount of tips in any given bar - by the total number of gogo boys - you would find that the average amount a boy makes in a night for tips alone would probably be around a whopping 20 baht, thus the reason many bar owners feed their staff. The bulk of the money they rely on to earn a living comes from offs. If a gogo boy is offed 2 times per week (3 hours of actual service) and earns 3,000 baht he can and does make ends meet. Tips alone don't cut the mustard.

The ability to find boys (the right boys) is what determines a boy bars longevity. So many places in Pattaya failed because they lacked the skills/experience needed to recruit Hot boys. Customers are essential no argument there, but with no boys (or, the wrong boys) the customers simply won't come and the place will eventually go out of business. It happens every single time.

The old Crazy Dragon comes to mind. The new owner didn't have the foggiest clue how to find boys...leaves the place sitting empty with the "open" sign hanging on the door for 2 years...then staffs the place with a handful of pot-bellied ex-song teaw drivers wearing thong underwear. The owner went on to claim that the reason he finally had to close was due to a lack of customers. Go figure!.

Honestly, and I don't intend for this to sound offensive in any way, but the boys don't start having fun until after they've left the bar and they're out with their friends. Having to sit next to (or, on top of) farang who are old enough to be their great grandfathers, listening to endless slurs of the sexual fantasies they want to experience back in the room, isn't the least amount of fun for them. Their SMILES at this juncture are simply a reflection "Endurance"...not to be misinterpreted as "Happy".

.

[arsenal]

Mfas.
Nice Boys had an endless stream of hot boys until a few years ago which kind of proves my point. As you said, the owner stopped bothering.

Dodger.
Toy Boys. Lots of customers and lots of boys.
Cupidol. Lots of customers and lots of boys.
Diamond Boys. Not always many customers but lots of boys.
Winner Boys. Lots of customers and lots of boys.
Goodboys. Almost no customers but still had lots of boys.
Power Boys. No customers but still usually a dozen boys, most of them.gruesome.

Straight boys are not on the apps.

[Dodger]

Mfas.
Nice Boys had an endless stream of hot boys until a few years ago which kind of proves my point. As you said, the owner stopped bothering.

Dodger.
Toy Boys. Lots of customers and lots of boys.
Cupidol. Lots of customers and lots of boys.
Diamond Boys. Not always many customers but lots of boys.
Winner Boys. Lots of customers and lots of boys.
Goodboys. Almost no customers but still had lots of boys.
Power Boys. No customers but still usually a dozen boys, most of them.gruesome.

Straight boys are not on the apps.

It looks like we're going to have to agree to disagree on this one.

From what I understand the bars listed above have very few customers right now...some with only 2 or 3 boys on staff...and Cupidol and Power Boys are closed. I'm not sure about Toy Boys.

In any event, the bars that do have an ample supply of boys are still bringing in the customers, as few-and-far between as they may be right now which is a good thing.

[dinagam]

I disagree, case in point is “Nice Boys” where the owner makes little effort to find new boys, as the tired old staff dwindles so do the customers.

I've come across many new boys who were very much my types but unfortunately they only lasted for a week or two before going elsewhere.

[Dodger]

NEWS FLASH!

An alternative to charter flights has finally been found. All you need is two friends to help you cross the ocean.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZK8VU5TifQ

[arsenal]

dinagam wrote.
"I've come across many new boys who were very much my types but unfortunately they only lasted for a week or two before going elsewhere."

Exactly. Bars like Nice Boys, Goodboys and Eros would often have boys who stayed for a night or two. Usually to make the money to travel home. Some of my best offs have been these boys. One in particular was called Earth and he was only at Nice Boys for one night. A gloriously happy memory.

[Dodger]

dinagam wrote.
"I've come across many new boys who were very much my types but unfortunately they only lasted for a week or two before going elsewhere."

Exactly. Bars like Nice Boys, Goodboys and Eros would often have boys who stayed for a night or two. Usually to make the money to travel home. Some of my best offs have been these boys. One in particular was called Earth and he was only at Nice Boys for one night. A gloriously happy memory.

Maybe you're tipping too much.

[dab69]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/thailand-slowly-restart-tourism-flight-072241418.html

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand will receive its first foreign vacationers when a flight from China arrives next week, marking the gradual restart of a vital tourism sector battered by coronavirus travel curbs, a senior official said on Tuesday.

The first flight will have about 120 tourists from Guangzhou, flying directly to the resort island of Phuket, Tourism Authority of Thailand governor Yuthasak Supasorn told Reuters.

[francois]

Dodger.
Toy Boys. Lots of customers and lots of boys.
Cupidol. Lots of customers and lots of boys.
Diamond Boys. Not always many customers but lots of boys.
Winner Boys. Lots of customers and lots of boys.
Goodboys. Almost no customers but still had lots of boys.
Power Boys. No customers but still usually a dozen boys, most of them.gruesome.

Straight boys are not on the apps.

An update:

Toy Boys closed.
Cupidol open and most recently had some boys in jeans on stage. Some customers.
Power Boys closed.
Good Boys closed.
Winner Boy 10 boys or so; some customers.
Diamond Boy or Diamond Bar? Diamond Bar in Sunee has few customers and few boys but they are nice.
Nice Boys open, many boys, some customers
XBoys open, many boys, some customers.
Dream Boys open, Boys, some customers.
A Bomb open.

[arsenal]

Ok Dodger and Francois. I sort of assumed it was obvious that I was talking about normal times and it was in response to Dodgers assertion that bars can't find boys.

[francois]

Ok Dodger and Francois. I sort of assumed it was obvious that I was talking about normal times and it was in response to Dodgers assertion that bars can't find boys.

arsenal, I prefaced my comments with "an update", so nothing personal intended.:devilsh:

[Blueskytoday]

I think thailand will NOT reopen for general tourist until maybe next summer.....

[Manforallseasons]

I think thailand will NOT reopen for general tourist until maybe next summer.....

Until an effective Vaccine is produced and has worldwide distribution there is no way of knowing.

[arsenal]

What is it with this worldwide distribution crap. Nothing is distributed worldwide. Thailand us already in bilateral talks with several countries about opening up.

[Armando]

What is it with this worldwide distribution crap. Nothing is distributed worldwide. Thailand us already in bilateral talks with several countries about opening up.

What's with this opening up crap? News about these alleged bilateral talks have been going on for months. And sign of a breakthrough? Nope!

[Manforallseasons]

Thailand will eventually come up with ridged rules for select countries with very low infection rates of which the U.K. and U.S.A. certainly will be towards the bottom of the list, until such a time that a vaccine is distributed on a vast scale allowing tourism to return to something close to normal.

[arsenal]

https://www.timeout.com/news/thailand-is-reopening-and-its-new-visa-lets-you-stay-for-nine-months-092920

[Manforallseasons]

https://www.pattayamail.com/news/stv-a-good-idea-but-wont-help-revive-tourism-industry-pattaya-business-leader-says-328439

[Zebedee]

Guys at this now, you really REALLY need to get a hobby!

[extronaut]

Here's an article that, more or less, backs up what I've been saying.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/01/covid-19-vaccine-alone-wont-defeat-spread-of-virus-report-warns

TLDR: Even if a vaccine is available December/January, it's going to take months, maybe as long as a year, to mass produce and distribute. Moreover, there's no guarantee it will be 100% effective. So, for the sake of preventing deaths, quarantine and social distancing will continue to be facts of life for a while.

Personally, I'm optimistic. Given there's hundreds of vaccines in development, and 11 already in final stage trials, I'm hopeful that by the end 2021 you'll be able to take a whole suite of vaccines, which all defend against the virus in different ways, and thus reduce your susceptibility to almost nothing. When it gets to that stage, we'll nearly be over this thing.

[goji]

TLDR: Even if a vaccine is available December/January, it's going to take months, maybe as long as a year, to mass produce and distribute.

1 I thought they were supposed to be mass producing the vaccines in parallel with the trials ? OK, not EVERY vaccine, but something like the "Oxford" vaccine was supposed to be in mass production.

2 How long does it take to inject a person ? I would estimate 5 minutes. So 12 per hour and 480 in a 40 hour week. So to cover the entire UK population in 2 weeks, we need 70,000 people administering injections. Out of the 500,000 people working for the NHS, I would hope that 70,000 are capable of administering an injection.
So my target would be 2 weeks to complete the exercise.
Then for all the admin & logistics, they just need to outsource that to a combination of the army, private sector companies etc.

A little more ambition and planning is needed.

(This applies to a country which manages to develop it's own vaccine, or negotiate an early supply).

[Nirish guy]

.......but something like the "Oxford" vaccine was supposed to be in mass production.

The Oxford Vaccine ( trail) was paused for further testing after one of the test patients became ill, however it seems that as of two weeks ago work has recommenced on it again, however as of yesterday perhaps it seems the Us FDA intend to look further into the previous work carried out by the UK doctors to see is there anything there to be concerned about - so it seems then rolling out that oxford Vaccine may be a while off yet still ?

[extronaut]

1 I thought they were supposed to be mass producing the vaccines in parallel with the trials ? OK, not EVERY vaccine, but something like the "Oxford" vaccine was supposed to be in mass production.


Yeah but not the sort of scale you're thinking. Back in July, they were optimistic about having a million doses by September.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-oxford-vaccine-res-idUSKCN24L1TW

That rate is impressive, but not enough to vaccinate a whole country inside a year.

When/if the Astrazeneca vaccine is proven to be safe and effective, they will probably step up production considerably, as well as outsource production to other firms, and other countries.

But bear in mind that this vaccine needs to be stored in deep freeze. That means an equally huge investment refrigerated trucks and eskies to get the doses to everybody.

It can be done in a year, but the logistics will rival D-Day. Given how much lockdowns and travel bans are costing, it's probably worth trying.

[StevieWonders]

I'm hopeful that by the end 2021 you'll be able to take a whole suite of vaccines, which all defend against the virus in different ways, and thus reduce your susceptibility to almost nothing. This is the sort of ludicrously ignorant comment which shows you simply can’t be taken seriously

[extronaut]

This is the sort of ludicrously ignorant comment which shows you simply can’t be taken seriously

Well spotted!

So you're saying I can't take more than one vaccine? Or that you don't believe there'll be more than one vaccine by the end of 2021?

I admit that I don't know shit, apart from what I've read on the web and heard in podcasts, so I'm more than happy to be corrected.

[goji]

Yeah but not the sort of scale you're thinking.
This is the sort of scale I was thinking about: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/astrazeneca-is-set-to-make-two-billion-doses-of-a-coronavirus-vaccine.html

As I don't trust journalists to listen and report on what is said, I checked the Astra Zeneca 2020 H1 Results RNS, published on 30/July/2020.

Extract:

"In June 2020, the Company announced a $750m agreement with CEPI and GAVI to support the manufacturing, procurement and distribution of 300 million doses of the vaccine, with delivery starting by the end of the year. Also, AstraZeneca reached a licensing agreement with the SII to supply one billion doses for low and middle-income countries, with a commitment to provide 400 million doses before the end of 2020."

The last part about providing 400 million doses before the end of 2020 is the kind of scale I have in mind.
I'd also hope the UK would be somewhere near the top of the queue for a vaccine developed here. In case our government is feeling too equitable to other countries, they should remember at the way the French behaved with PPE.

Of course, the NHS is guaranteed to **** up the distribution. Then inept politicians, of all parties, have an inflated view of their own capabilities, so won't even go out and get the right people to manage it. Tenacious people conversant with cycle times, logistics, figuring out how to get it done on time rather than making pitiful excuses.

[Moggy]

This is the sort of scale I was thinking about: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/astrazeneca-is-set-to-make-two-billion-doses-of-a-coronavirus-vaccine.html

As I don't trust journalists to listen and report on what is said, I checked the Astra Zeneca 2020 H1 Results RNS, published on 30/July/2020.

Extract:

"In June 2020, the Company announced a $750m agreement with CEPI and GAVI to support the manufacturing, procurement and distribution of 300 million doses of the vaccine, with delivery starting by the end of the year. Also, AstraZeneca reached a licensing agreement with the SII to supply one billion doses for low and middle-income countries, with a commitment to provide 400 million doses before the end of 2020."

The last part about providing 400 million doses before the end of 2020 is the kind of scale I have in mind.
I'd also hope the UK would be somewhere near the top of the queue for a vaccine developed here. In case our government is feeling too equitable to other countries, they should remember at the way the French behaved with PPE.

Of course, the NHS is guaranteed to **** up the distribution. Then inept politicians, of all parties, have an inflated view of their own capabilities, so won't even go out and get the right people to manage it. Tenacious people conversant with cycle times, logistics, figuring out how to get it done on time rather than making pitiful excuses.

An excellent well researched post but might I point out it wont be the NHS who will ******up it will more likely be some company Like Serco who were paid 11 billion to run Track and Trace and no doubt any vaccine will be distributed by a similar company, its all part of slowly privatizing the NHS.

[Oliver2]

Serco and G4S are in it for the money. They don't give a damn about UK citizens if they aren't shareholders.

[arsenal]

Oliver wrote.
"Serco and G4S are in it for the money. They don't give a damn about UK citizens if they aren't shareholders."

Be thankful about that. It's exactly why the vaccine will be ready in record time.

[goji]

I agree with Oliver and Arsenal.

I wouldn't be giving contracts to shitty companies like Serco and G4S, unless there were huge penalties for when they fail.

Thankfully, with capitalism, there will always be other companies ready to step in. Ones that realize they need to provide a decent or outstanding customer service.

Meanwhile, with many private companies doing vaccine research, we're more likely to get one that works AND have billions of them manufactured.

[Dodger]

According to the Thaiger article linked below, foreigners with permanent residences who have been stranded overseas for the past 6 months, and long-term foreign residents (retirement visas), can now re-enter Thailand. Both groups still have to undergo the mandatory state-controlled 14 day quarantine.

Details of residents and retiree's returning are not provided in the article. One question I would have is; will they still honor a persons retirement visa (extension of sty) if it has expired, assuming many would have expired by now.

If this is true (flip a coin) it's great news for some of our stranded friends who had retired in Thailand prior to the lockdown.

The article also includes this statement: If you believe you fall into either of these categories, contact your local Thai Embassy or consulate to discuss your circumstances BEFORE you purchase a ticket or make any other arrangements.

Apparently, this has already been entered in the Royal Gazette. Funny, I can't hear any trumpets bellowing in the background yet!


https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/thailand-travel-advice