Like It Or Not You Are Not Coming Back Anytime Soon!

[Manforallseasons]

This is a letter from a reader of Pattayanews:
https://thepattayanews.com/2020/09/11/reader-mailbag-like-it-or-not-most-of-us-arent-coming-back-anytime-soon-to-pattaya/

[goji]

The title should read "you are" in place of "your".

[Jellybean]

Hmmm . . . the following extract from the published letter reminds me of someone, but for the life of me, I just can't remember who. Anyone? Anyone?


. . . There are all sorts of interesting sides in the comments, from expats who think they are somehow special for being locked in the country and basically trolling others who aren’t . . .

And just for you goji, I have amended the topic title. ;)

[Marc K]

FINALLY somebody is talking some sense! If we get back at all in 2021 I will be happily surprised. Guys, don't you know this is a once-in-a-century pandemic? The virus really doesn't care that we are frustrated being stuck in place wherever we might be. We are stuck. So best to make the best of it and get on with your lives. In the meantime we can virtually fantasize here on the boards which might reduce some of our frustrations.

[cdnmatt]

I thought this was basically common sense at this point. Every qualified epidemiologist in the world says we're in for a rough fall / winter, so obviously nobody is opening up soon. Quite the opposite, and we're already seeing more restrictions getting put back into place all around. Expect that to increase over the coming few months.

Personally, I'm thinking July 2021, and things will begin opening back up. Until the, if you really need to get out, find a good gig with an NGO, and if you're really good at what you do and get lucky, you may be able to get in via a specialized skilled VISA since you're benefiting the country.

For the time being, get used to hand dates.

[Dodger]

Guys, don't you know this is a once-in-a-century pandemic?

Globalization has caused the world to shrink, where virus epidemics in the past could sometimes be contained in specific geographic regions before becoming global pandemics (similar to Ebola). In this century we've already been faced with the Swine Flu Pandemic, MERS, SARS, and now Covid-19, and just based on the reality that "Globalization" is here to stay, we will inevitably be faced with more in the future. This is just a grim reality of life on the Planet Earth.

I agree with your comments about people accepting the travel bans caused by this pandemic and being patient. To date, there is still no vaccine or known treatment for the SARS coronavirus, and there's no guarantee that there will be a vaccine for this virus either...regardless of all the stunning news flashes we see.

In any event, it's crystal clear that Thailand is not going to allow general tourists to enter the Kingdom when the threat of contamination is still alive. Thailand's Tourist Authority (TAT), in all their desperation, continually fail to persuade the government to do anything differently. If general tourists were permitted entry before 2022 I'd be surprised.

[arsenal]

The piece is a little negative but certainly gives the impression the writer reads this board.

Once a vaccine is created there will be no reason not to allow that person to enter Thailand or any other country.

And the vaccine? Well no one can say how long that will take. There is no information on this available, it doesn't exist. Never before have so many organisations been dedicated to one cause. Never before have trials been conducted using so many people on the front line. If 200 Russian health workers dealing with coronavirus patients are vaccinated and none of them get it then there's a good chance it works. In that respect past trial numbers and time frames are meaningless. These are totally uncharted waters.

The Alaskan Highway is 2700kms long and was built in 8 months due to pressing need. A 4000 bed hospital was built in the UK in 3 weeks due to pressing need.

Have faith because on this issue faith has as much meaning as 'facts'.

[StevieWonders]

Once a vaccine is created there will be no reason not to allow that person to enter Thailand or any other countryI’d anticipate that travelers will be expected to show via a certificate from the government of the country where they reside they’ve actually been vaccinated, not just that a vaccine exists. I’d also not be at all surprised if a negative COVID-19 test on arrival is not also required, at least in the early stages.

[arsenal]

"I’d anticipate that travelers will be expected to show via a certificate from the government of the country where they reside they’ve actually been vaccinated, not just that a vaccine exists. I’d also not be at all surprised if a negative COVID-19 test on arrival is not also required, at least in the early stages."

I agree. All perfectly doable.

[Armando]

Have faith because on this issue faith has as much meaning as 'facts'.
Faith in Russian vaccines that have not been properly tested? Faith that a vaccine will be found quickly? The DG of the International Vaccine Institute has pointed out that the failure rate between animal studies and registration of a vaccine is 93%.

Now some crazies believes Trump that a vaccine will be out before the end of the year. Oops he actually said by November 1st.Consider that vaccines in the past have normally taken between 2 and 5 years just for the discovery and research phases. Most take a total of 10 years before they are on the market. What is so different now? Just because so many companies and countries are working on it? Well maybe that will reduce the time frame substantially, but a few months? Its time the doubters started to get real. All this before the problems of vaccinating the world are faced especially when other crazies especially in the USA refuse vaccinations on some sort of pseudo religious or constitutional reason.

I hope the faith of all those who talk about 'having faith" is a great deal stronger than their faith they show in the Almighty.

[Dodger]

Now some crazies believes Trump that a vaccine will be out before the end of the year.

It's too bad Trump couldn't force the release of a vaccine a bit earlier...say in October. This way his supporters (the only one's dumb enough to come within 10 feet of the untested Trump vaccine) would have plenty of time to get vaccinated before the November 3rd elections.

[arsenal]

"Faith in Russian vaccines that have not been properly tested?"

They are being properly tested. Right now. On doctors dealing with coronavirus patients.


"I hope the faith of all those who talk about 'having faith" is a great deal stronger than their faith they show in the Almighty."

It is thanks.

[GWMinUS]

I’d also not be at all surprised if a negative COVID-19 test on arrival is not also required, at least in the early stages.

Of course, if you have been vaccinated and the vaccine is effective you will test Positive for Coronavirus.

[Moses]

Of course, if you have been vaccinated and the vaccine is effective you will test Positive for Coronavirus.

Only first 2-3 weeks after vaccination. AT that time titre of IgG antibodies are high and IgM are low. after 2-3 weeks IgG going back to zero and IgM became high - this is proof of your immunity. When IgM will be low again that means you lost immunity to COVID.

[Blueskytoday]

when the vaccine comes out...it will be fully tested....move on

[dab69]

six months from now is plenty soon enough for me.

[Marc K]

when the vaccine comes out...it will be fully tested....move on

Oh good grief. If only it were so. This vaccine will not be "fully tested" in our lifetimes. The secondary effects of viruses often reveal themselves long after exposure -- an example is HPV which manifests as cervical cancer in women and anal cancer/penile cancer in men perhaps 20 years after exposure, maybe more. The first polio vaccine resulted in "after-polio" effects long after polio itself stopped spreading.

So what is an "effective" vaccine? One which lowers the "R" below zero (so it doesn't multiply exponentially) and one where no serious illness results within a reasonable timeframe. That timeframe is surely measured at least in months, so the candidate vaccines of today (in Phase 3 trials) will need to pass these tests. IF they are successful (a big "if" as, in the past, 93% of candidate vaccines have failed), we won't know that for at least a few more months. And then there will be the matter of inoculating 6 billion people on the planet. That may take "a few days" before it works its way to you and me.

"Say it ain't so, Alfie!"

[StevieWonders]

You do know, presumably, that modern medicine does make advances. We’re not still using leeches as a standard form of treatment. At the start of all of this our armchair medical “experts”* were assuring us a vaccine would never be found

* expert, where x is the unknown quantity and a spurt is a drip under pressure

[goji]

So what is an "effective" vaccine? One which lowers the "R" below zero (so it doesn't multiply exponentially)

I think you meant to write reduces R below 1, which is sufficient to prevent exponential growth & results in exponential decay.
[Incidentally, the UK Deputy Chief Scientific Advisor clearly doesn't know what an exponential decay graph should look like, as she was unable to explain the shape of the UK hospital admissions graph a few months ago. The graph looked just like a typical exponential decay, as expected. It's worrying when the scientific advisors can't even grasp school maths. Probably explains some of the dumb decisions made.]

If we got to R=0, that means each infected person infects zero people. To get R below zero, each infected person would have to presumably uninfect some others, which I imagine is somewhere between highly unlikely and impossible.

My best estimate is that I'll receive a vaccine within 6 months.

[cdnmatt]

You do know, presumably, that modern medicine does make advances.

Yes, but we've also been trying to cure influenza for over 200 years with no success, so naturally people are going to be a little skeptical when all of a sudden it comes out in 6 months.


At the start of all of this our armchair medical “experts”* were assuring us a vaccine would never be found

We still have no idea. Even dr. Fauci says he'd be pleased if a vaccine was found with efficacy of 50 - 70%. Plus we have absolutely no clue how long the immunization would last for. 6 months? 3 years? Lifetime?

I hope people don't think getting the upcoming KoVid vaccine is going to provide the same level of immunization as say a measles or hepatitis shot, because it's simply not going to, at least not for the first good number of years. I guess there might be some amazing medical breakthrough, but nothing I've heard about thus far suggests that.

[StevieWonders]

Yes, but we've also been trying to cure influenza for over 200 years with no success.I look forward to your detailed chronology of attempts to cure influenza “for over 200 years”. When might we expect it?

[cdnmatt]

I look forward to your detailed chronology of attempts to cure influenza “for over 200 years”. When might we expect it?


Sorry, I screwed up. We've been trying for about 2600 years. Hippocrates first gave it a crack back in 412 BC.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5139605/

[StevieWonders]

Sorry, I screwed up. We've been trying for about 2600 years. Hippocrates first gave it a crack back in 412 BC.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5139605/
I hadn’t realised until now that we’ve known about viruses for thousands of years. Up until now I’ve believed the generally accepted view that they weren’t discovered until the 1890s (AD). We’ve only been able to cure syphillis within the lifetime of some of our older members although that of course is not caused by a virus.

[cdnmatt]

Yeah, medical world is pretty fascinating. For example, we still don't really know how or why anesthesia works. We just kinda fell ass backwards into that one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzK3oWMm4MY

[Armando]

Sorry, I screwed up. We've been trying for about 2600 years. Hippocrates first gave it a crack back in 412 BC.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5139605/
Google is such a wonderful tool. In fact the Chinese have been using a herb to treat colds for around 3 millenni according to Google of course.

[mr giggles]

[QUOTE=StevieWonders..... We’re not still using leeches as a standard form of treatment. At the start of all of this our armchair medical “experts”* were assuring us a vaccine would never be found

Actually, the use of leeches in medicine has had a resurgence, particularly in microsurgery.

[StevieWonders]

Google is such a wonderful tool. In fact the Chinese have been using a herb to treat colds for around 3 millenni according to Google of course.The phrase “young, dumb and full of cum” still has its uses.

[mr giggles]

"Faith in Russian vaccines that have not been properly tested?"

They are being properly tested. Right now. On doctors dealing with coronavirus patients.


"I hope the faith of all those who talk about 'having faith" is a great deal stronger than their faith they show in the Almighty."

It is thanks.

You believe the Russians? Sure, they didn't put Polonium in that tea
:unknw_mini:

[Dodger]

In fact the Chinese have been using a herb to treat colds for around 3 millenni according to Google of course.

A combination of boiled green tea, ginger root, and cinnamon, has been used to cure colds, sinus infections, and other upper respiratory illnesses for centuries in Asia. Of course the FDA in America doesn't acknowledge this...because they want you to continue shopping at Walgreens for all that expensive crap the pharmaceutical companies make that rarely works.

I've been using this remedy for over 20 years and it works like a charm. The minute you start to get cold symptoms, boil some herbal green tea in a small pot...toss in a chunk of ginger root and a few sprigs of cinnamon. Sip it while its still hot and breath in the vapors through your nostrils simultaneously. Your cold symptoms will be gone by morning. Anyone here who tries this can thank me later.

[francois]

I've been using this remedy for over 20 years and it works like a charm. The minute you start to get cold symptoms, boil some herbal green tea in a small pot...toss in a chunk of ginger root and a few sprigs of cinnamon. Sip it while its still hot and breath in the vapors through your nostrils simultaneously. Your cold symptoms will be gone by morning. Anyone here who tries this can thank me later.

Dodger, you should pass this on to Trump; he can then prescribe it for "curing" another related virus, Covid.

[cdnmatt]

I've been using this remedy for over 20 years and it works like a charm. The minute you start to get cold symptoms, boil some herbal green tea in a small pot...toss in a chunk of ginger root and a few sprigs of cinnamon. Sip it while its still hot and breath in the vapors through your nostrils simultaneously. Your cold symptoms will be gone by morning. Anyone here who tries this can thank me later.


Ohhh, ginger root! Thanks for the tip, I'll add some next time, as that sounds it'd help quite a bit. Little honey and lemon juice in that green tea helps as well I find.

[dinagam]

And don't forget to add in a dash of powdered organic ganja leaves...

[bkkguy]

Of course the FDA in America doesn't acknowledge this...because they want you to continue shopping at Walgreens for all that expensive crap the pharmaceutical companies make that rarely works.

while I readily acknowledge that the majority of cough, cold and sinus remidies sold in pharmacies are usually of limited benefit I find it harder to accept that the FDA's main reason for not promoting herbal remedies is to support the profitability and revenue streams of the pharmacy chains and pharmaceutical companies

the problem with many herbal preparations is the lack of consistency of the contents and the lack of reproducible evidence of efficacy

you can grab 50 samples of unknown size of willow tree bark from different trees in different locations and boil it and put it in a bottle and sell it as a herbal remedy for aches and pains and fever but they may or may or may not produce repeatable results but if you pick up a bottle of Aspirin at a pharmacy you at least know that it consistently contains enough acetylsalicylic acid (the active ingredient of willow bark) to have some clinical effect

in 1971 a Chinese team searching for anti-malarial properties of herbs in the traditional Chinese pharmacopeia identified Artemisinin, derived from sweet wormwood, as an interesting candidate. The team leader was awarded the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 2015, but boiling up some wormwood did not revolutionise malaria treatment worldwide, it was the synthesis of artemisinin derivatives combined with other compounds that produced clinically reproducible results compared with 2000 years of anecdotal evidence

I am sure your boiled green tea, ginger root, and cinnamon has a palliative effect, personally I find a snifter of brandy and an early night also have a good effect, and while this has been a common remedy in many western countries for many years I don't know that it qualifies as a "herbal" remedy so you have the high ground there!

[goji]

People returning from Thailand to England and Scotland no longer need to quarantine at home for 14 days. Now all we need is a few tweaks on the Thai side to make the long term tourist visa workable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54197620

[Dodger]

...while I readily acknowledge that the majority of cough, cold and sinus remidies sold in pharmacies are usually of limited benefit I find it harder to accept that the FDA's main reason for not promoting herbal remedies is to support the profitability and revenue streams of the pharmacy chains and pharmaceutical companies.

Pharmaceutical companies make billions from addictive painkillers and medicine designed to treat illnesses, and could care less about natural herbal type remedies, or for that fact, anything that helps to PREVENT a person from becoming ill in the first place. They make money from sick people. The more sick people, the more money. It's as simple as that. The FDA and Pharma Industries go together like peanut butter & jelly.

[Dodger]

People returning from Thailand to England and Scotland no longer need to quarantine at home for 14 days. Now all we need is a few tweaks on the Thai side to make the long term tourist visa workable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54197620

I imagine a quarantine isn't necessary because the travelers are returning from a Covid-Free country (Thailand).

Unfortunately, the opposite doesn't hold true.

[arsenal]

"People returning from Thailand to England and Scotland no longer need to quarantine at home for 14 days."

Today. Who knows tomorrow or even by lunchtime. Watching the UK from afar is like watching a semi blind pensioner driving an articulated lorry. Fascinating. Tragic but fascinating.

[StevieWonders]

Pharmaceutical companies make billions from addictive painkillers and medicine designed to treat illnesses, and could care less about natural herbal type remedies, or for that fact, anything that helps to PREVENT a person from becoming ill in the first place. They make money from sick people. The more sick people, the more money. It's as simple as that. The FDA and Pharma Industries go together like peanut butter & jelly.
I use 1 generic paracetamol tablet + 1 generic ibuprofen tablet taken together daily to manage my arthritis. Total daily cost from Watsons 2 baht (or 4 baht if I’m having a bad day). If you want to take the same in a single tablet labeled “Advil” and costing 10 to 20 times as much then more fool you.

As for herbal products, Valerian does nothing for me as a sleep aid, precisely in line with FDA advice, namely that it is safe to use but its effectiveness has never been clinically proven. Why hasn’t it been clinically proven? Because there’s no money in it for a producer to do so - nothing do with the FDA at all

[Oliver2]

"From 4am on 19 September, Thailand will be added to the list of countries where self-isolation on return to the UK is not required."

Some good news from our benighted government. At last.

[francois]

peanut butter & jelly.

I like that, peanut butter and jelly for a cold cure. Better than that other hodgepodge you were espousing. :devilsh:

[Dodger]

"Like It Or Not You Are Not Coming Back Anytime Soon"

I visit Pattaya 2-3 times a week to enjoy coffee and a chat with friends. I go very early in the morning to avoid traffic and always return to my humble abode in Bang Saray by 11:00 AM.

I had to renew my retirement visa this week and ended up spending the entire day in Pattaya waiting for my visa to get stamped. With a whole day to kill, I decided to just cruise around...visit a few old friends...do a bit of shopping...and just enjoy the sights of Pattaya.

I had breakfast at Ambiance in Boyztown...I was the only one there...it felt like a ghost town...and the waiter "Khun A" who's been serving food at Ambiance for the past 22 years, informed me that his job was just terminated due to a lack of customers. According to him, there were ZERO hotel guests. He appeared to be shell-shocked and said that this was his first job as a young boy...he has never worked anywhere else...and hadn't the foggiest clue how he would be able to care for his family going forward. Depressing to say the least.

Then onward to Tukcom for a donut and a visit to the fifth floor movie shop. Another old friend "Tar" who's been managing the shop for years told me he went 3 consecutive days without selling a single movie or music CD. They only sell for 100 baht. He wasn't sure how much longer he could hold out, which explained why his textbook ear-to-ear smile was missing from his face when I first saw him. I picked up a few movies just to break his losing streak.

Then, a short motorbike buzz up to Soi Khao Pai to visit another old friend who used to work at the recently closed Forest House Bar in Sunee Plaza. Just like the others, he appeared sullen and depressed. He was trying to survive by selling fruit drinks from a small stand he had assembled in front of a tiny shared room he had rented in a less-than-desirable area. Hugs...best wishes...and on my way.

With still 2 hours to kill before I could go back to Immigration I buzzed up to Central Marine in North Pattaya to shop for a snorkeling mask...no such luck...shelves at the dive shop were empty, as was the entire shopping center.

I drove the full length of Pattaya Beach from the Dolphin Circle to Walking Street and the beach-front was practically desolate. You know it's bad when the ladyboy pick-pockets don't even bother going. With still 2 hours to kill before returning to Immigration I decided to go to Dong Tan Beach to say hi to a few old friends at the gay beach. I never bothered turning off my motorbike, as the concession where I used to go back when I lived in Pattaya was completely empty.

According to my expat friends who live in Pattaya, the nightlife is just about as depressing. Plenty of boys sitting around Jomtien Complex with understandably subdued smiles, but very few customers. Boyztown and Sunee Plaza are like wounded birds flapping around on a hot sidewalk struggling to survive.

I guess if I was someone wanting to return to Thailand for holiday during this mess I would be thinking..."Like it or not, there's no reason for me to come back any time soon"

[arsenal]

Dodger wrote.
"I guess if I was someone wanting to return to Thailand for holiday during this mess I would be thinking..."Like it or not, there's no reason for me to come back any time soon""
and
"Plenty of boys sitting around Jomtien Complex"


Which is it?

[Manforallseasons]

Dodger wrote.
"I guess if I was someone wanting to return to Thailand for holiday during this mess I would be thinking..."Like it or not, there's no reason for me to come back any time soon""
and
"Plenty of boys sitting around Jomtien Complex"


Which is it?

Over time I‘ve gotten the impression you like similar boys that I do and on that note using the term “boys” as sitting around Jomtien Complex is a bit of a stretch!

[arsenal]

We do like similar boys MFAS and indeed have I think, shared many of them though to the eternal relief of us both not at the same time. Haha.

Sunee and Boyztown are boy boy shopping while Jomtien is more of a hunt.

[Dodger]

Dodger wrote.
"I guess if I was someone wanting to return to Thailand for holiday during this mess I would be thinking..."Like it or not, there's no reason for me to come back any time soon""
and
"Plenty of boys sitting around Jomtien Complex"


Which is it?

Well, they could certainly use your donation, that's for sure.

[Manforallseasons]

arsenal, as I’ve known Dodger through his many loves you can be rest assured you’ll never fight over the same “ boy”.