No End In Sight! [Archive] - Sawatdee Gay Thailand the oldest and most popular gay forum on Thailand and South East Asia

gerefan2

July 28th, 2020, 16:22

Actually a lot may change.

If tourists are not allowed back this season Pattaya will lose out on nearly 10 million visitors. (Last year there were 9.4 million foreign tourists in Pattaya).

As an expat you need to be really worried about that manforallseasons. You could end up living in a dark deserted city devoid of any entertainment, restaurants or bars.

Whilst I get the impression some expats are happy to see the back end of Chinese and Russian tourists they should be careful what they wish for.

If we tourists do not return soon Pattaya could be permanently dark and deserted as we have seen in YouTube videos over the past few months.

goji

July 28th, 2020, 16:49

1 At present, governments have to try and balance economic v Covid risks. So far, the Thai government has very much prioritised reducing the Covid risk, at the expense of a large percentage of the economy. This has already resulted in protests in many cities in Thailand, which is no surprise at all, considering the impact on people in the tourism sector. This may result in changes, with or without a vaccine, particularly if the government recognises that repression of the population will become increasingly difficult.

2 With all the vaccines under development, it seems increasingly likely that at least one will be widely available in 6~12 months. There are also treatments that improve the death rates.

An end is very much in sight.

Oliver2

July 28th, 2020, 17:06

Manforallseasons

July 28th, 2020, 17:17

I doubt that this government is interested in the welfare of those who work in relatively low-paid jobs in Pattaya, nor for the people of Isaan et al, who depend on them to feed families "back home". However, the managements of big companies such as the already- struggling Thai Air are a different matter.
I suspect that their views are being aired- and listened to-at this very moment.
Unless there is an increase in the number of internal cases, I can see at least a partial opening-up in High Season.
,

The “internal cases” remain low because the Thais are taking it very seriously masks, social distancing, hand sanitizing etc. so the only thing that might cause the “internal cases” to rise would be allowing tourists to return.

goji

July 28th, 2020, 17:48

I doubt that this government is interested in the welfare of those who work in relatively low-paid jobs in Pattaya, nor for the people of Isaan et al, who depend on them to feed families "back home". However, the managements of big companies such as the already- struggling Thai Air are a different matter.
I suspect that their views are being aired- and listened to-at this very moment.
,

I suspect you are right on these points. However, in view of the protests, the government might be forced to take more interest in the people who have moved from low paid jobs to no jobs.

Besides, if we look back to February and March, Thai infection rates were hardly disastrous when they had tourists coming in from countries with higher infection rates than currently. Also, know how for treating covid is increasing.

Manforallseasons

July 28th, 2020, 17:57

gerefan2

July 28th, 2020, 18:36

Yes the economy is suffering and will continue to do so however, the overwhelming majority of Thais favor keeping foreigners out. https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1953916/95-say-no-foreigners-to-prevent-2nd-covid-wave-poll

That’s a poll of a mere 1400 odd people out of 60 million, a tiny, tiny proportion. It also quite clearly states in the link ..

“1,459 people throughout the country to gauge their reactions to the cases of an Egyptian soldier”

So,it was undertaken following the hysterical reaction in Rayong when a soldier was found to have Covid on RETURN to Egypt. Of the thousands tested NONE were found positive. In fact nobody has been found positive in Thailand for months.

So it’s hardly more than media hype.

Furthermore if 95% are against tourists returning, then obviously 5 % are for it.

But stats show 21% of GDP comes from tourism. Presumably therefore 20 odd % also work in tourism.

So it doesn’t add up at all does it?

Manforallseasons

July 28th, 2020, 18:54

goji

July 29th, 2020, 00:19

I understand many would like to return to Thailand but before that can happen they first must clear some hurdles such as will their home country allow them to travel wherever they wish and once they do so will they be allowed to re-enter and if so will they need to quarantine?

1 Most of our countries PERMIT us to travel wherever we like, but in some cases they "advise against all non-essential travel to country ********". Which means a standard travel insurance policy becomes invalidated. If that were the only barrier, I would investigate a more specialized insurance policy.

2 I cannot enter Thailand on reasonable terms at present. This may change once pressure on the Thai economy and government increases & of course, depending on the covid infection rates in our own countries.

3 As a result of #2, there are no flights. As soon as #2 is fixed, airlines will arrange some flights.

4 Under current rules, if I return from Thailand, I need 14 days in quarantine at my home. Assuming Thai covid infection rates are reliable, this rule makes no sense at all.
However, it's also no barrier to me travelling. If I can book a long holiday in Thailand, 2 weeks at home at the end of it is no problem at all. I can just get groceries etc delivered to home.

For anyone retired, financially independent or with the ability to work from home, it should be no issue at all.
Judging by the near empty car parks and near empty trains, I would imagine well over 80% of professionals are currently working from home here anyway.

I guess retired, financially independent or able to work from home covers a good proportion of board contributors. People in this category are a different market to the families who have gone to Spain on holiday and suddenly been inconvenienced by the re-introduction of quarantine. If we go to Thailand for 1~3 months, 2 weeks quarantine at home at the end of it is no issue.

We just need point #2 fixed -ie Thai government policy.

gerefan2

July 29th, 2020, 01:53

Agreed goji.
And even 2 weeks quarantine on arrival in Thailand is no real issue if you are staying for 90 days. There is the cost of it but if you subtract what you would have to spend anyway it would still be worth it to get back into Thailand.

goji

July 29th, 2020, 05:37

gerefan2

July 29th, 2020, 06:41

What I meant was that for a 90 day stay one could put up with 14 days quarantine on arrival in Thailand.

It would however be unacceptable for a one month stay.

latintopxxx

July 29th, 2020, 06:43

its back to the middle ages this pandemic thing...could go on for a dozen years until it exhausts itself...

arsenal

July 29th, 2020, 07:40

Goji and gerefan2 are not far short of planning to parachute into Pattaya and go undercover in order to get their fix of the place.

Such is the draw of Paradise upon Sea that few who've spent time there would consider such action unreasonable.

Chocks away chaps.

Zebedee

July 29th, 2020, 10:37

Two weeks quarantine on arrival in Thailand is a bigger inconvenience.

In the UK, quarantine is at your own home. So I can go anywhere in the house or garden, order & cook whatever food I want, use the exercise bike etc

In Thailand, I believe it's at a designated hotel. I presume we're expected to stay in the room & eat what's provided.

Thai quarantine might turn out to be similar to Melbourne quarantine where the security personnel charged with keeping an eye on those quarantined,were "rogering " ( is that a word ) their charges. Now nearly all Victoria is in lockdown as a result of the subsequent spread of covid-19 . That's one hellava rogering!!!

Admittedly there were other sources of the resurgent outbreak also.

Dodger

July 29th, 2020, 11:02

As an expat you need to be really worried about that manforallseasons. You could end up living in a dark deserted city devoid of any entertainment, restaurants or bars.

Beats the alternative.

If no tourists are allowed entry - that means that the countries where the tourists reside are continuing to get clobbered by Covid-19, and certainly not places I would want to be.

If Thailand continues to stand firm on their C-19 restrictions, which I believe they will, the economy will continue to decline - no doubt about that, but every single Thai that I've talked to understands and supports this position. regardless of the hardships being encountered. Business owners...well that's another story.

As a resident expat, I really feel sorry for my friends who can't make it back here for holiday, but actually enjoy the beaches more with less tourists...appreciate less traffic and safer roads overall...breath cleaner air (tour buses are history)...and can always find a place to have fun. Bars, restaurants and entertainment venues are suffering as expected...but there's always somewhere to find what you're looking for.

A vaccine is definitely the critical piece on the play-board right now. The borders in Thailand won't be open to high risk countries (and possibly others) without it. From what all the medical experts have been telling everyone from the time this virus hit, is that it will require 12 months of testing before it can be approved and released to the public. That puts us near the end of 2021 at the earliest.

As far as Pattaya: It has been imploding for the past 20 years and simply outgrew itself. The infrastructure, e.g., electric systems, water systems and roadways are unmaintained and overburdened to say the least and supported by third-world technologies at best. The lack of skilled internal resources needed to support the massive growth Pattaya has been experiencing simply adds to the problems.

I took a drive along Pattaya Beach yesterday...stopped in at Royal Garden...and continued along Jomtien Beach on my way home, and honestly saw what seemed more normal to me than anything else. As far as the number of people on the beach or out-and-about in the stores, it seem more balanced and the roads were definitely safer to drive on.

francois

July 29th, 2020, 13:28

From my perspective, Pattaya is much more a dead zone. The gay zones are on life support, barely kept alive by the few remaining expats and those others who are stuck here until when; the future is grim.:devilsh:

a447

July 29th, 2020, 13:53

Thai quarantine might turn out to be similar to Melbourne quarantine where the security personnel charged with keeping an eye on those quarantined,were "rogering " ( is that a word ) their charges. Now nearly all Victoria is in lockdown as a result of the subsequent spread of covid-19 . That's one hellava rogering!!!

Yes, they ended up fucking not just those in quarantine, but the entire state of Victoria and the subsequent flow-on has affected the whole country.

I was supposed to fly to Japan this month to celebrate the "significant" birthdays of 2 friends. To save me traveling twice in the same month - not that that would have bothered me - they planned to combine their parties and celebrate at a hotel on July 20. I was really looking forward to it and the fact that I'd have to quarantine for 2 weeks on my return didn't bother me.

But then reality hit. I'd have to return via Sydney, where I'd also have to quarantine for 2 weeks. Four weeks in quarantine in hotels I could not choose was too much to bear.

I agree with goji - I think a vaccine and/or a treatment will be developed before too long and this nightmare will be over.

First stop, THAILAND!!

Marc K

July 30th, 2020, 07:20

I am in the camp that we are in for a long wait. The first vaccine is likely to be largely ineffective or fail altogether (given the history of vaccine development) and this virus will keep circulating about, popping up here and there, at its will, for years to come. If it doesn't kill a lot of (more) people, it will be a damn nuisance, which is well worse than the common flu, for perhaps a generation. Don't expect miracles, boys, it is not going to happen.

In order to avoid economic Armageddon, Thailand (and elsewhere) will have to open up if only to survive. I don't think we can go back to a non-globalist economy. The world is too intertwined and interdependent. But given that the trickle of humanity which is allowed to move freely will have to be constrained and closely monitored (for disease), it would seem logical that in Thailand, as is the case here in Hawaii too, that tourism will turn away from the mass tourism of the past and only allow the equivalent of Elite Visa Holders to have unfettered access to the passport control stands at Swampy.

It's quite sad to say all this. As a world we had almost reached a place that the average Joe could travel freely and experience the world. I think that is going to (have to) change. If you have a choice between 100 tourists spending $100/day, or 10 tourists spending $1000/day, it is pretty clear what governments will (have to) choose. It's called optimizing tourist revenues while keeping down the number of persons and therefore the risk of transmission of this stupid (well not so stupid actually) virus!

arsenal

July 30th, 2020, 08:28

There probably aren't enough tourists to spend $1000 a day to cover the loss of the mass market. Plus they wouldn't cover the costs of all the touristy stuff such as the two huge water parks, the floating market, the two magnificent sheep farms (I know, how lucky are we?), the crocodile farm, Siam Kingdom of Ice, the big bee farm and not forgetting my absolute favourite...Flower Land.

It's calculated that tourism is worth a little below 20% of the Thai economy. But that almost certainly doesn't include all the tips/off fees etc you pay out and you pay out a lot. If I spend 10000 baht in one day (rarely but sometimes) then 4000 of that is on off fee and tips. Now I may be wrong but I don't think the beautiful Thai sex worker is filling out a tax return.

Also, tourism allows millions of Thais to earn an honest living in reasonable conditions and is for many a ladder to a level up. If that ladder is removed then the civil unrest we've seen in the past will pale in comparison to what could happen.

Oliver2

July 30th, 2020, 13:56

And....sorry to be repetitive... much of that money ends up in rural areas and pays for school fees and the daily requirements of workers' families .

It's worth considering how the tourist industry, including the commercial sex scene, has enabled the Thai military elite and its allies to remain in power in an allegedly democratic country by providing a level of social and economic support without which civil strife would become inevitable..

In The Gambia it was estimated that one hotel worker supported an extended family of fifteen. Of course, Thailand is nowhere near as poor but the principle is true to various degrees in tourist- dependent countries across the world.

For this reason, i suspect that a tipping-point will come, at some stage and the economic needs of communities will force a change, assuming that there isn't an increase Covid victims.

goji

July 30th, 2020, 14:17

For this reason, i suspect that a tipping-point will come, at some stage and the economic needs of communities will force a change, assuming that there isn't an increase Covid victims.

Exactly. Turning off 20% of the economy indefinitely is going to create a lot of pressure on the government. Eventually they are going to have to open up with or without a vaccine.

I also don't quite see why they are so cautious with this particular risk to human health, whilst the same government does almost nothing about other causes of premature death, like road safety and pollution.

Manforallseasons

July 30th, 2020, 14:42

The more the government here in Thailand hears more of the virus spread in China, U.K. Europe, U.S. the likelihood of the tourist ban shall rightfully continue. The obsession with economic interests over public safety concerns has lead to the disaster in the U.S., U.K., Russia etc. is certainly clearly in the sights of the Thai government. I suspect no change in policy for the foreseeable future.

Oliver2

July 30th, 2020, 15:37

I agree; the need to protect health trumps economic development. Nevertheless it is reasonable to ask at what stage are the millions of poor Thais going to supported by the government once the charities and temples run out of charitable donations? I think of an old women, a friend of P from his temple, scraping a living selling a few shirts to tourists in Second Road. He always bought food for her when we passed her, out of compassion for her condition. Who is caring for her now? And for millions of others?

Dodger

July 30th, 2020, 15:57

I assume the people responsible for balancing the books are considering any/all potential impacts caused by banning tourists...not only the obvious loss of revenue - but also the negative impacts of tourism especially in places like Pattaya, and the potential positive impacts of having fewer tourists. Sound ridiculous?

When you consider things like; damage to the landscape: litter, erosion, fires, disturbance to livestock, vandalism. traffic congestion, road accidents and fatalities, water pollution threatening the health of humans and animals, air pollution (carbon emissions), solid waste and littering, releases of sewage, oil and chemicals, even architectural/visual pollution, having fewer tourists does not always have only its downside. Though it may contribute to the growth of Thailand's economy, there is no doubt that the tourism industry damages communities and the environment....and all these things have a price tag.

If Thailand can increase its exports to help absorb the loss in GNP - the money saved by not ruining the entire ecosystem may be a viable option. In any event, I agree with MFAS, that lifting the travel ban knowing that it's not safe to do so, is probably not an option they're willing to consider.

siscu58

July 30th, 2020, 16:57

The first vaccine is likely to be largely ineffective or fail altogether (given the history of vaccine development) and this virus will keep circulating about, popping up here and there, at its will, for years to come. If it doesn't kill a lot of (more) people, it will be a damn nuisance, which is well worse than the common flu, for perhaps a generation. Don't expect miracles, boys, it is not going to happen.

Mark, I hope you are wrong. Several vaccines are in a third phase of trial and expected to be of use for general population in about 6 months. I wish they will be effective. Waiting a generation to come back to LOS is not an option to me.

goji

July 30th, 2020, 19:29

When you consider things like; damage to the landscape: litter, erosion, fires, disturbance to livestock, vandalism. traffic congestion, road accidents and fatalities, water pollution threatening the health of humans and animals, air pollution (carbon emissions), solid waste and littering, releases of sewage, oil and chemicals, even architectural/visual pollution, having fewer tourists does not always have only its downside.
The Thai government has done almost nothing about these environmental issues in the past and I very much doubt it will be a priority going forward.
For instance, regarding air pollution, they haven't even done the easy things that have relatively little pain. So keeping 20% of the economy shut down for pollution reasons isn't going to happen.

Mark, I hope you are wrong. Several vaccines are in a third phase of trial and expected to be of use for general population in about 6 months. I wish they will be effective. Waiting a generation to come back to LOS is not an option to me.
A vaccine seems rather likely to me. There are so many under development & if we combine that with increased know how and the pressure, it seems quite likely that one will succeed.
Also, with or without a vaccine, there's no way we will be shut out of Thailand for a generation due to COVID. Even without a vaccine, people will get bored with all the irrational fear and learn to get on with it.

Just to put it in perspective, the WHO estimate that 22941 people die in Thailand from road traffic accidents each year.
So far, there have been 58 COVID deaths in Thailand. Roughly equivalent to one day's road traffic deaths. Yet they don't close roads or properly enforce any of the road safety legislation.

The COVID stats also include periods when tourists were free to travel to Thailand from countries which had much higher COVID infection rates than now.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/03/asia/thailand-road-deaths-new-year-intl/index.html

Manforallseasons

July 30th, 2020, 20:03

Without an effective vaccine the fact that Thailand has experienced only 58 deaths is all the more reason the government has little interest in seeing this number grow and knows very well that the country’s health system would be totally unable to deal with a huge number of new cases. If and when a vaccine is available my concern is where Thailand’s place will be in the pecking order to receive the vaccine.

aot871

July 30th, 2020, 20:46

goji

July 30th, 2020, 23:28

I read yesterday in the bkk post that the thai goverment was investing in the oxford uni vacine trail

I read that they are preparing a budget to buy the vaccine. https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30391825

If the Oxford vaccine is successful, Thailand will not be the first in line. The UK, the EU and I believe the US have ordered many doses. Russia has or has apparently been negotiating some kind of deal for domestic production.

Brazil and South Africa are participating in the vaccine trial. The obvious thing to do is to negotiate access to the vaccine before approving the trial, so I presume they have some agreement.
After that, if we're prioritizing, it would only be fair for the UK to send a few million doses off to Vietnam, since Vietnam was quite helpful in sending lots of PPE to the UK when we had a crisis a few months back. [Unlike a certain French company, which was contracted to supply PPE to the NHS in the case of a pandemic, but when it came down to it, they were selling the stuff off to the highest bidder, rather than honouring their contract].
However, I believe the general principle is to try and make it as widely available as possible.

I still think I'm likely to be offered this particular vaccine some time before it's available for the masses in Thailand.

All of the above is IF it's successful & there's no guarantee of that.

Incidentally, has anyone here participated in the trials ? I'm not living in one of the many areas where they are conducting the trials.

snotface

July 31st, 2020, 16:50

As a resident expat, I really feel sorry for my friends who can't make it back here for holiday, but actually enjoy the beaches more with less tourists...appreciate less traffic and safer roads overall...breath cleaner air (tour buses are history)...and can always find a place to have fun. Bars, restaurants and entertainment venues are suffering as expected...but there's always somewhere to find what you're looking for.

As a flatulent friend of mine once said, 'It's an ill wind that blows nobody good.' This is a good time to be an expat. I particularly enjoy the cleaner air. Every morning I pull back my curtains and marvel at the bright, clear light making the trees look so sharp and freshly green. I feel I could almost count the leaves on them (christian probably could). The little sliver of sea over Bang Saray way between a V of trees, which enables me to say that my condo has a sea view, is now visible all the time and not just when the pollution eases off for a day or two. As you say, it's much easier to get around on the roads without a tour bus in sight. I go to the beach more than before, now that I can have a quiet, relaxing read and admire the sharply delineated blue-grey islands on the horizon.

Sorry all those of you trapped in exile, but all the boys in the Complex and on the apps desperate to share their bodies with me can be a bit much ('One at a time please, I'm not into multi-tasking'). I regard it as not merely likely but a racing certainty that there will be more bar closures. The volume of business in the Complex is low to put it mildly and I find myself thinking what a time to have embarked on that pricey overhead erection which is presumably intended to lead to higher leases. I wonder if it will be finished any time soon or whether I will continue to walk along that soi feeling that I am inside the skeleton of a whale. But I don't share the apocalyptic vision of some. When (and not if) the tourists do return in force, I'm confident the entrepreneurial spirit will stir in Thai and farang breasts again and bars will reemerge. Remember, Pattaya is a brand name, a bit like, well, Kentucky Fried Chicken.

Dodger

July 31st, 2020, 18:00

According to todays CCSA Covid-19 update shown on TV, as well as a slurry of recent news releases, Thailand now ranks number one in the world on the Covid-19 recovery index.

I never hesitate to criticize Thailand when things get screwed up - so it's only fair to complement them when things go right. Their handling of this pandemic from the start has been one for the record books. Now, if they can leverage this widely publicized success to increase consumer confidence at a time when global supply chains are all changing shape, they just may be able to increase their foreign business potential and export markets.

Story here:

https://www.tatnews.org/2020/07/thailand-ranked-number-one-on-the-global-covid-19-recovery-index/

christianpfc

July 31st, 2020, 20:25

There might be more deaths by suicide (due to financial problems due to covid) than direct deaths by covid in Thailand. (My guess; couldn't find numbers, but see following link.)
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/06/16/874198026/the-cost-of-thailands-coronavirus-success-despair-and-suicide

There are more countries in SEAsia that have warm weather when we have winter, and cute available boys. I can't imagine that all these countries will remain closed to tourism when what would be high season comes. My preference is clearly Thailand, but if Thailand does not open to tourism, I will go elsewhere.

sglad

July 31st, 2020, 20:51

I wonder if...I will continue to walk along that soi feeling that I am inside the skeleton of a whale.

A sensation that you no doubt share with every Thai boy who's had to fuck a fat farang in Pattaya.

Zebedee

July 31st, 2020, 22:28

I wonder if it will be finished any time soon or whether I will continue to walk along that soi feeling that I am inside the skeleton of a whale.

A sensation that you no doubt share with every Thai boy who's had to fuck a fat farang in Pattaya.

The question is,did those Thai boys have a whale of a time?

Marc K

August 1st, 2020, 04:17

I desperately hope that those of you who think the COVID monster is going to go poof anytime soon are correct! Pls don't get me wrong, I too want to be able to return to Thailand at will as I have been doing for way too many years. I just don't think that, especially the "at will" part, is going to happen any time soon. Viruses are sly little buggahs -- they hide, they mutate, the hitch rides in the damndest ways. For example, on TV here this morning there is now a discussion of possibly recommend people wear some kind of eye covering to make sure the virus doesn't land in the eyes. One doctor said he wears sunglasses every time he flies. So while I do hope we are all wearing masks, be aware that there are likely to be other modes of transmission -- might I add possibly via sex? -- which will arise. So perhaps we have to add COVID to our concerns about HIV and HPV and lord only knows what other viruses hitch a ride that way!

My suggestion? I think the most determine Thai-philes among us better start saving up for an Elite Visa. It might be the only way any of us are going to be able to get into LOS anytime soon?

Dodger

August 1st, 2020, 08:56

My suggestion? I think the most determine Thai-philes among us better start saving up for an Elite Visa. It might be the only way any of us are going to be able to get into LOS anytime soon?

Evan with an Elite Visa there doesn't appear to be any guarantee's.

For a 1 million baht nonrefundable donation you do get expedited immigration formalities, although nowhere in the Program Outline does it guarantee entry into Thailand when a government decree is in place banning travel from your respective country. This would be a deal-breaker for me. If they're saying (or insinuating) that those with an Elite Visa will have no problems entering Thailand, then they should have no problem putting this into writing. A bit risky IMO.

Marc K

August 1st, 2020, 08:57

My suggestion? I think the most determined Thai-philes among us better start saving up for an Elite Visa. It might be the only way any of us are going to be able to get into LOS anytime soon?

BANGKOK POST:
The entry is granted to foreign business representatives, specialists, diplomats, migrant workers, exhibitors, film crews, medical tourists and Thailand Elite card members. One requirement is that they are required to stay in "organisational quarantine" facilities and such facilities must meet disease control standards.

Dodger

August 1st, 2020, 09:24

BANGKOK POST:
The entry is granted to foreign business representatives, specialists, diplomats, migrant workers, exhibitors, film crews, medical tourists and Thailand Elite card members. One requirement is that they are required to stay in "organisational quarantine" facilities and such facilities must meet disease control standards.

Thank you Marc.

I guess if they didn't change their minds a person with an Elite Visa would be OK.

arsenal

August 1st, 2020, 09:36

StevieWonders

August 1st, 2020, 16:34

goji

August 1st, 2020, 17:22

Some lessons the Thai officials will be learning:
1 After 2 months of few/no new cases combined with closed borders, Vietnam is now dealing with a new outbreak
2 After negative tests before boarding followed by negative tests on arrival, two recent arrivals from Europe have now tested positive

The Vietnam experience suggests that all these strict controls are doing is kicking the can down the road.
Now kicking the can down the road might make sense if there's a vaccine in 6 months.

If there isn't a vaccine for 2~3 years, countries will have to wake up and just start getting on with it. The alternative of keeping large parts of the Thai economy closed, with next to no support for the people unemployed is just going to lead to huge protests and pressure for the government to change.

Dodger

August 1st, 2020, 18:03

"One requirement is that they are required to stay in "organisational quarantine" facilities and such facilities must meet disease control standards."

Quite a big requirement and I doubt the 'control standards'allow for you to nip off the Nice Boys and come back with a lean, tanned, sparkly eyed boy to have hot action with.

According to the Pattaya Mail article inked below there are 4 types of quarantine, each one pertaining to the type of traveler entering the Kingdom.

Local Quarantine (Hotel) - Home (self) Quarantine - Organizational Quarantine (migrant workers) - Hospital Quarantine (medical tourists).

If in fact Elite Visa holders are permitted to enter the Kingdom as the Bangkok Post article stated, one could assume that either Local (Hotel) or Home Quarantine would apply.

The Bangkok Post article was incomplete and misleading by not explaining this.

If a farang can afford a million baht for Elite passage - he probably has enough money to "nip off" as much as he wants.

https://www.pattayamail.com/thailandnews/thai-and-foreign-nationals-to-be-allowed-to-enter-kingdom-list-disclosed-306189

arsenal

August 1st, 2020, 19:14

Zebedee

August 1st, 2020, 19:43

The Vietnam experience suggests that all these strict controls are doing is kicking the can down the road.
Now kicking the can down the road might make sense if there's a vaccine in 6 months.

If there isn't a vaccine for 2~3 years, countries will have to wake up and just start getting on with it. The alternative of keeping large parts of the Thai economy closed, with next to no support for the people unemployed is just going to lead to huge protests and pressure for the government to change.

“Every society is three meals away from chaos”

― Vladimir Lenin

Dodger

August 2nd, 2020, 08:38

At some point in the probably not too distant future we're going to have a vaccine that pretty much everyone agrees, works.

And then what? Will the other approx 149 companies be given the recipe in a sort of modern Volvo seat belt moment or will they price gouge. It will be interesting.

According to what we've been reading in the news for the past 6 months, of the 184 countries effected by the virus, many, including the U.S., UK, China, Russia, Australia, Japan, Thailand, and others, have been partnering with pharmaceutical companies and independent labs so they can have a supply of the vaccine (or vaccines) on-hand when they are approved. Purchases are being made already, even before testing is completed for this very reason.

I could be wrong, but I really don't think people, especially those in the larger countries, have to worry about a long waiting line, because it's only in the best interest of each country to get as many of their citizens vaccinated as soon as possible to stop their economies from crashing. Governments are desperate for the vaccine. Once the "recipe" (or recipes) are approved there will be many large manufacturing companies around the world mass producing the vaccine - not just a single company.

It was reported in the news last night that Russian plans to begin mass vaccinations as early as October. How they shortened the lead-time involved with the testing is anyone's guess.

arsenal

August 2nd, 2020, 09:23

This could herald the start of something new. A stamp in your passport to say you've been vaccinated. Cool.

However don't be surprised if geo politics sticks it's nose in. Not hard to imagine Trumpety Trump saying America doesn't recognise the vaccine from China/Russia etc as being effective and refusing entry to those who have it.

Moses

August 2nd, 2020, 13:06

It was reported in the news last night that Russian plans to begin mass vaccinations as early as October. How they shortened the lead-time involved with the testing is anyone's guess.

Latest updates in local news - they will start vaccination from the end of August| start of September.

Smiles

August 2nd, 2020, 13:19

" ... Governments are desperate for the vaccine. Once the "recipe" (or recipes) are approved there will be many large manufacturing companies around the world mass producing the vaccine - not just a single company ... "
Unfortunately there is a huge elephant in the room regarding vaccines in general.
In the United States 43% say that they would not take the vaccine when arrived, and, nor would not let their kids be vaccinated as well.
There is something existentially very wrong with the USA overall: the incredible rising of the crazed Right-Wingers ~~ pushed further into the dark by the extreme nutter Trump.
Chances are that ghastly Trump will be kicked out of the White House in November, but the 43% will not let go of this particular deadly conspiracy.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-percent-americans-covid-vaccine.html

Smiles

August 2nd, 2020, 15:28

Haven't heard from Traveller Jim lately. He was - at 2016 - the glorious time when Trump managed to gain his glorious throne and the quintessential boot-licker was in "I told you so" mode.
One would like to know how he feels now with 158,000 American deaths as of today, and an American President gives not a damn ... beside some cake, Antoinette-ish.

NitNoi

August 2nd, 2020, 15:54

aot871

August 2nd, 2020, 18:35

IF we carry on with out a vacine into early 2021 and therefore a lack of tourists what percentage of bars do you think will remain ?

Dodger

August 2nd, 2020, 18:53

Unfortunately there is a huge elephant in the room regarding vaccines in general.
In the United States 43% say that they would not take the vaccine when arrived, and, nor would not let their kids be vaccinated as well.
There is something existentially very wrong with the USA overall:

Sadly, you are correct.

Trump is a virus. The Trump Virus (let's call it Crayola -18) started spreading the minute he was elected and reached global pandemic level in his first 90 days in office. The vaccine has been nearly 4 years in the making and finally due for release on November 3rd of this year.

The majority of Americans who said they wouldn't take the vaccine on the survey are Trump supporters, and they don't need Covid-19 vaccines, they need Crayola-18 vaccines and/or Rabie shots.

We've learned a lot during this past 4 year Crayola-18 Virus, including just how deep the bottom of our barrel in the U.S. is.

I'm not sure what Biden and the new Senate will do to address this after the source of the Crayola-18 Virus is dragged kicking and screaming across the White House Lawn. I imagine they'll shift their focus to Covid-19.

Manforallseasons

August 2nd, 2020, 21:22

IF we carry on with out a vacine into early 2021 and therefore a lack of tourists what percentage of bars do you think will remain ?

All but a handful will disappear without foreign tourists as there simply are not enough expats to keep them going however, surely in certain areas there will be a few that cater to Thais.

latintopxxx

August 3rd, 2020, 03:11

nah...trump virus has been incubating foir the last 30 years...slowly building up...stoked by bat shit crazy leftie policies that ignore common sense...

Marc K

August 3rd, 2020, 04:17

All but a handful will disappear without foreign tourists as there simply are not enough expats to keep them going however, surely in certain areas there will be a few that cater to Thais.

I agree with you, MFAS. It's unlikely that are many "two-week millionaires" among the many expats/retirees living in Thailand now. To sustain a robust gay scene you alas need a free-spending, I'm leaving for home tomorrow, devil be damned mindset which hands out red baht notes as if they are water and conserves tan baht notes only slightly more tenaciously. Green baht notes will not keep the scene alive for long.

Once the scene does shrink back to its pre-1980's size, perhaps it will grow back once again in a far more rational way. In Pattaya now it appears SP is already dead, BT is flailing about, and JC is barely being kept alive.

What does "rational way" mean? I hope it means far less influence from the mafia and the corrupt police (one and the same?) and far more protection offered to the staff.

goji

August 3rd, 2020, 04:53

I agree with you, MFAS. It's unlikely that are many "two-week millionaires" among the many expats/retirees living in Thailand now.

This is logical.
If someone only gets 2 weeks holiday in Thailand, it's fairly logical that they will be prepared to spend at a much faster rate than someone living there for 52 weeks.

In the past, when I've been to more expensive Asian countries on business, I would be perfectly happy to spend almost 5000 baht on an hour's "entertainment". After all, if my company has paid for flights, hotels etc and I can only travel into the gay part of the city for 2 days at the weekend, my overall spend for the week is very modest.

If I were spending 4 weeks in the city on holiday, that spend rate becomes more problematic. Even more so for 52 weeks.

So of course the more expensive bars will require some free spending tourists to keep turnover up.

Dodger

August 3rd, 2020, 09:16

.

What does "rational way" mean? I hope it means far less influence from the mafia and the corrupt police (one and the same?) and far more protection offered to the staff.

Actually (as I find myself struggling for the right words), returning the control of the night-life scene back to the Boys-in-Brown (BIB) and their underworld counterparts is exactly what will make the wheels turn again. Before the military took over, it was these forces (as much as we don't favor them) that actually provided the protection to the bar owners and sex workers which has been the bedrock of the sex industry in Thailand for many decades, if not longer.

The BIB provided the conduit for the flow of tea money to the top...the wheels were greased...the wheels turned. Is this rational in western thinking? No. But in Thailand it's "no money - no honey...and the money has to be making it all the way to the top.

TIT

arsenal

August 3rd, 2020, 10:09

A bit of good news.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-new-tests-which-detect-covid-19-in-90-minutes-to-be-rolled-out-next-week-12041300

Marc K

August 3rd, 2020, 10:58

The BIB provided the conduit for the flow of tea money to the top...the wheels were greased...the wheels turned. Is this rational in western thinking? No. But in Thailand it's "no money - no honey...and the money has to be making it all the way to the top.

TIT

Dodger, I see your point clearly and it makes a lotta sense. The BIB brown envelopes have kept the good times rolling. You are absolutely right! However societies do change (for better or worse) and I think now with Thai incomes are increasing (notwithstanding the COVID crisis anomaly for now) and more opportunities for boys and girls to be able to support their families in other occupations, we will see the society become more conservative and pull in on some of the raucous activities of the past.

Don't get me wrong, I too will mourn for the fun days gone by (!) but that doesn't mean we can be blind to the future as much as we would like to hold on to the past. My point is this -- together we can try to encourage the creation of a new scene which is fairer, less corrupt, less predatory yet still enjoyable. In some ways the apps have already done that (thank goodness they came along!) but I think there will be other, even cleverer, ways to remake the gay scene in the future. The writing's on the wall, guys.

And in some ways I think we have already done that. SP is more or less dead, as is Soi Mango Tree and the other pleasure palaces. We have moved instead to JC bars which have clearly now become the center of the gay scene in Pattaya. And JC is a far cry from the "over-exuberance" of SP, for example. So we are moving in a more sustainable direction I think.

Oliver2

August 3rd, 2020, 13:54

The fact that the JC bars are overwhelmingly Cambodian or Lao- staffed is instructive. Even the Soi Twilight bars seemed to be in their dying days. At the same time, the apps flourish, even now.

I can't be the only veteran who loves Pattaya and yet hardly ever enters a bar, gay or otherwise, while still enjoying every minute of my time there.

goji

August 3rd, 2020, 15:32

A bit of good news.

There is plenty of good news in the data. We just need to look beyond the journalists trying to generate clickbait with their negative headlines and actually check the data ourselves.

For instance, Covid Joe shows UK case numbers declining again since the 27th of July. Quite possibly the positive effect of mandatory face mask wearing in UK shops.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

Beware of the media, who scour the country and the world looking for the worst Covid results, whilst ignoring all the regions and countries getting it under control.

Dodger

August 3rd, 2020, 15:58

.

...My point is this -- together we can try to encourage the creation of a new scene which is fairer, less corrupt, less predatory yet still enjoyable.

You raise some very good points, and believe me, I would like to see the gay scene evolve in any direction it has to in order to survive, but in order to make that kind of transition "Corruption" (which is the river that flows through it), would have to be dealt with first...and, honestly, I just can't see that happening in Thailand any time soon.

I agree totally that before the pandemic young people were beginning to have more opportunities to earn money outside of the "working scene", but now, with the Thai economy being set back two decades, those opportunities have dwindled to a 1990's level which ain't good. In the post-Covid-19 era, there should be an abundance of "supply" - but lackluster "demand" until the tourists can return.

Is there an end in sight? Sure, but you'd need a good set of binoculars to see it.

arsenal

August 3rd, 2020, 16:40

Yesterday I caught a cold and couldn't go out clubbing. Plenty of drugs, a Xanax and an early night did the trick. Today I'm fine and will probably hit the club's tonight.

The world currently has a cold. Plenty of drugs (available soon I think) and the world will be fine.

See you all in Jomtien for coffee and cakes in December.
General Melchett.
(paraphrased)

Manforallseasons

August 3rd, 2020, 17:19

See you all in Jomtien for coffee and cakes in December.
General Melchett.
(paraphrased)

Maybe December 2021

arsenal

August 3rd, 2020, 19:04

An extremely selfish keeping all the boys for himself and not wishing to share MFAS wrote.
"Maybe December 2021"

Say it ain't so Joe.

francois

August 3rd, 2020, 19:31

An extremely selfish keeping all the boys for himself and not wishing to share MFAS wrote.
"Maybe December 2021"

Say it ain't so Joe.

I fear it is so, Joe (Arsenal).:devilsh:

francois

August 3rd, 2020, 19:34

I can't be the only veteran who loves Pattaya and yet hardly ever enters a bar, gay or otherwise, while still enjoying every minute of my time there.

Oddly, there seem to be many farang who live in Pattaya and rarely, if ever, go to a bar. Wish they did, as more customers are needed to keep that scene alive. There is not much to enjoy here these days.

Oliver2

August 3rd, 2020, 21:17

I know where I'd rather be.

a447

August 3rd, 2020, 21:54

Marc K

August 4th, 2020, 02:30

Yes I will come back, for sure. But it is because it is a habit for me -- I have lots of friends there, a great landlord who takes very good care of his tenants, and, above all, the gracious Thai people who I have come to know and love.(How they can put up with us is a mystery I will never solve!)

But if I were 40-something (I wish!) I am not so sure I would feel like this. I live in Hawaii -- we already have the greatest beaches in the world (yes, I am prejudiced), the absolutely greatest weather in the world (ditto), and great Thai food given we have a relatively large Thai immigrant community here (along with Vietnamese, Filipino, Cambodian and most every other "flavor" of Asian).

So if I were new to Thailand, I don't think I would stick it out. No reason really to come. For years actually I have been noticing the decrease in young-ish gay Westerners in Pattaya. Almost none. And that was pre-COVID. So we can only imagine what that population will be post-COVID alas.

Up2U

August 4th, 2020, 08:42

Anybody who thinks Thailand will be welcoming foreign tourists in the foreseeable future may wish to read this. The expats living here (me) are supportive of the government's handling of the covid-19 epidemic.

https://thepattayanews.com/2020/08/03/over-70-us-soldiers-arrive-in-chonburi-for-military-training-all-will-face-strict-fourteen-day-quarantine/

latintopxxx

August 4th, 2020, 11:04

...they will have no choice when the economy starts imploding and the hungry hoi polloi start rioting...

arsenal

August 4th, 2020, 11:30

The expats posting here have no stake in the Thai economy. However when the pension companies that do start going to the wall a different tune might be sung. Just saying like.

Dodger

August 4th, 2020, 12:08

What will you expats do if we don't get a vaccine and the gay scene disappears?

Will you consider moving elsewhere, or even go back home? Or are there enough other attractions apart from sex to keep you there?

Every expat has his own lifestyle, and if the gay scene were to simply vanish, which I can't see ever happening, it would effect everyone differently.

Next month will mark 2 years since my retirement and I rarely visit the gay scenes at all any more. The scenes over here, as everyone knows, are totally geared for cruising, and I'm very content with my Thai partner...finally have time to enjoy my hobbies (a dream come true) and focus more on staying healthy...early to bed - early to rise and all that stuff, versus bar-hopping.

If I were unattached and living the Butterfly lifestyle like before, I would still rather be in Thailand than in any other place in the world, and would never consider leaving. The venues may change names...bars will come and go...and the effects of virus's will be felt here like anywhere else, but there's ALWAYS boys (endless opportunities)...the constant allure of the wacky culture...and the opportunity for me to experience total freedom regarding my choice of lifestyle.

Oliver2

August 4th, 2020, 13:52

I agree with Dodger. Gay bars are closing all over the world, not just in Thailand, as tastes and social conditions change. Nevertheless, I'd suggest that today there are just as many guys available for single falangs to meet as there were on my first visit twenty -five years ago....pre-Suny, pre- gay Jomtien, pre social media and before a plethora of gay massage joints were available. And, by the way, a fair number of bars that I visited in 1995 weren't there by '96.

And even then, there were empty or near-empty bars. Yes, BBB and Cockpit were very busy but there there were plenty of places where the doorman would betray what was coming when he'd run into the bar in front of you, clapping his hands to get the dancers back on their feet. Just for you.

Fewer bars with more dancers or hosts and more customers would perhaps be a good thing for visiting falangs?

And while the visible gay scene contracts, restaurants multiply, hotels' standards rise, the beach is cleaner, travel from BKK is ninety minutes rather than four hours , air travel not much more expensive....and hornet, Planet Romeo and so on ensure a steady supply of willing visitors not just in the evening but twenty-four hours a day.

Perhaps today's visitors have the better deal, even if the go-go bars can't compare with those of the past.

goji

August 4th, 2020, 15:49

Perhaps today's visitors have the better deal, even if the go-go bars can't compare with those of the past.

On balance, I prefer the scene of 10 years ago, with a great choice of gogo bars, sensible pricing and cute lads without all the tattoos & facial hair. Also, exchange rates were more favourable then.
It's also a little disappointing to see the disappearance of cruising in shopping malls, such as Silom Complex & on Dongtan Beach.

However, not all the changes are bad. I'm slowly learning how to get good results on the phone apps, where it really helps to define expectations carefully in advance. If that's done properly, I get better results in the bedroom than with lads offed from gogo bars.

I know of nowhere else in the world where there is such a wide availability of lads on the apps as Pattaya.

snotface

August 4th, 2020, 16:18

The only things that would force me back to England would be a chronic health condition too expensive to treat here or a major problem with the apartment I rent out in London. Having lived in Thailand for 16 years I have more friends here (gradually dwindling sadly). I've never become completely used to the tropical heat but it certainly beats the English winter even if it's not as severe as it once was. What I see and hear about the general mood in England these days, irrespective of what the virus has done, does not tempt me to return - revived nationalism, political correctness gone berserk. Yuk!

In Thailand I have a condo which I have decorated to my taste over the years and enjoy very much. I can live more comfortably here. I like much about the culture (not everything of course). Every day I am free to do whatever I want and rarely get bored. On that subject, the internet has made a huge difference to my enjoyment level and it's quite hard (almost impossible actually) to imagine life without it. The gay scene matters less and less to me as I get older; it's just reassuring to know that there will always be young men available if I am in the mood. So there we are. I'm not deliriously happy but probably happier than I deserve to be.

Dodger

August 4th, 2020, 16:51

The expats posting here have no stake in the Thai economy. However when the pension companies that do start going to the wall a different tune might be sung. Just saying like.

The cost-of-living in Thailand is 50% less than most of our home countries.

Same tune - less vibrato.

Manforallseasons

August 4th, 2020, 18:20

...they will have no choice when the economy starts imploding and the hungry hoi polloi start rioting...

Lol, the “hoi polloI” never goes hungry. Those that want to come back to Thailand must get their head around the idea that they will be unable to do so for at least a year and frankly we should begin to question the relevance of this board till such a time, as for being an expat living here during this time my daily life frankly hasn’t changed much only I deal with much less traffic especially the Chinese tour buses, the places I eat at are open, the bar that I enjoyed Nice Boys even before Covid has become an otter bore as I had been looking at the same boys for years now boys from the massage places and elsewhere are hungry for your money so no shortage of available boys.

goji

August 4th, 2020, 19:46

Those that want to come back to Thailand must get their head around the idea that they will be unable to do so for at least a year

A more accurate statement is: "MAY be unable to do so for at least a year".
Whilst it's certainly possible that restrictions could be in place for another year, it's going much too far to describe that as a certainty.

A more likely scenario is some opening up, firstly to countries with few covid cases.

bkkguy

August 4th, 2020, 20:19

Whilst it's certainly possible that restrictions could be in place for another year, it's going much too far to describe that as a certainty.

A more likely scenario is some opening up, firstly to countries with few covid cases.

who were those countries a month ago? and who are those countries today? and who will these countries be in three months time when the government gets around to finalising these "bubble" country lists, given how the situation continues to change in so many countries?

a447

August 4th, 2020, 20:59

I'm putting my faith in a vaccine or some kind of treatment. Without that, nothing can be predicted. In Australia we thought we had defeated the virus and Victoria was down to a couple of infections a day. Now the sky has fallen in and the virus has returned, worse than ever.They are now struggling to get it under control.

The biggest shock is that it all happened so quickly. One day restaurants, pubs and clubs were thriving, the next day the state went into total lockdown. The damage to the economy is incalculable.

So I'm not even going to think about bubbles and the like. The situation in S.E. Asia can change overnight and we will be back to square one.

arsenal

August 4th, 2020, 21:41

I will be very surprised if the majority of us here have not been vaccinated by December. Preliminary vaccines are already being given in China.

Coffee and cakes.

goji

August 5th, 2020, 00:18

who were those countries a month ago? and who are those countries today? and who will these countries be in three months time when the government gets around to finalising these "bubble" country lists, given how the situation continues to change in so many countries?

I see your point, but there are still a large number of countries where there has not been a disastrous second wave.
Despite all the negative media reports, even the UK has a relatively stable situation.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

I tend to agree with the optimistic views on vaccines as well.

Newbie99

August 5th, 2020, 00:46

I am seeing signs that Thailand plans to allow foreigners in if they quarantine for 14 days in certified hotels.

Marc K

August 5th, 2020, 07:42

I am seeing signs that Thailand plans to allow foreigners in if they quarantine for 14 days in certified hotels.

What signs are they? Alas I don't see any such signs from here. Anyway not many "two-week millionaires" are going to want to quarantine themselves for their entire stay. And they won't want to risk not being able to take their return trip home because COVID has suddenly roared either in their home country or in Thailand.

We have to be realistic, guys. All we can do here on this forum for the moment is reminisce about the "good old days" or pine for a future somewhere down the road.

foreign-tourists-and-retirees-excluded-from-latest-approval-list-to-come-to-thailand-309946 (https://www.pattayamail.com/featured/foreign-tourists-and-retirees-excluded-from-latest-approval-list-to-come-to-thailand-309946)

Smiles

August 5th, 2020, 08:17

"... Trump is a virus ..." Best metaphor of the year.

Zebedee

August 5th, 2020, 10:47

Coronavirus: WHO warns of 'no silver bullet' amid vaccine search
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53643455

Yesterday New cases Covid-19

USA = 54,504
Brazil =56,411
...it goes on and on even countries that previously had it under control are now seeing relatively huge increases in new cases:

Israel =1,768
Japan =1,171
Australia today =725
The only good thing seems ...to me ...that there does not appear to be a huge death toll so far, as was the situation in Europe / US during the first wave.

I still HOPE for a vaccine, but I also hope for a lottery jackpot to come my way. The reality is the Coronavirus is spreading rapidly around the world. Anyone here over 60 thinking about a trip to Thailand, should instead be worried about their health.

siscu58

August 5th, 2020, 15:42

See you all in Jomtien for coffee and cakes in December.

In December 2021?

dab69

August 6th, 2020, 02:30

the bar that I enjoyed Nice Boys even before Covid has become an otter bore as I had been looking at the same boys for years now .

Think about what they have to look at.
(Not necessarily talking about you)

Brad the Impala

August 6th, 2020, 03:32

Lol, the “hoi polloI” never goes hungry.

I believe Marie Antoinette expressed similar opinions.

StevieWonders

August 6th, 2020, 06:13

As the virus continues to ping pong around the globe it is becoming obvious that without an effective vaccine available to everyone nothing will change the status quo here in Thailand and elsewhere.
Two important points - the woman in charge of the Oxford University vaccine development has cautioned that any vaccine may be less effective among “older people” (most of the members here I’d wager); secondly there’ll be a priority list of those being vaccinated with health workers being the first as they’re the most at risk

I agree with everything MFAS and others are posting on the topic of re-opening. I predicted in my June post that Songkran 2021 is the earliest likely date for anyone thinking of holidaying in Thailand

snotface

August 6th, 2020, 09:52

I believe Marie Antoinette expressed similar opinions.

Let them eat rice cake.

goji

August 6th, 2020, 14:45

Two important points - the woman in charge of the Oxford University vaccine development has cautioned that any vaccine may be less effective among “older people” (most of the members here I’d wager); secondly there’ll be a priority list of those being vaccinated with health workers being the first as they’re the most at risk

"May be less effective amongst older people" doesn't necessarily mean zero effect, although I suppose it might be. There are older people who have survived Covid with fairly mild symptoms, so their immune system responded well to the actual virus.

Also, once sufficient people are vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, others should see the benefit.

The Oxford vaccine is already supposed to be in volume production, so one would hope there are stocks of it ready for if/when it is improved.

I believe the UK NHS has 500,000 employees. If we pessimistically assume 1 in 5 of them is capable of administering an injection, then it should be possible to inject the rest within a day.
Once it comes to injecting the rest of the population, if they assigned 100,000 to doing the injections and got some support from the army and other bodies for organisation, then each person administering injections has to do 670 people. At 5 minutes per person, that's about 7 working days to do the entire population. That's the "can do" attitude.
I imagine neither the attitude nor the results will be as positive in practice. The local NHS surgery could not organise a p*ss up in a brewery.

Incidentally, I believe they were signing up people in the 18~55 year old range for the phase 3 trial. I've no idea what that means for people over 55, but thought they were going to run additional trials. I haven't noticed that on the trials website.

UK infection rates aren't really high enough to prove the vaccine at present, as Prof Gilbert suggested. Approximately 5000 got the vaccine in the phase 3 trial (& 5000 got the Placebo). The number of people catching Covid is in the ballpark of 1 in 5000 per week, so on average, perhaps one person with the vaccine will be exposed per week. Thankfully they had the good sense to arrange trials in Brazil & South Africa, which should be more useful. I believe a trial will take place in India.

My guess is that UK residents towards the upper end of the 18~55 year old range would get the vaccine fairly quickly after approval.

Moses

August 6th, 2020, 15:04

Two important points - the woman in charge of the Oxford University vaccine development has cautioned that any vaccine may be less effective among “older people” (most of the members here I’d wager);

Well, nothing new in this case: you will be vaccinated 2-3-4-5 times with 2-3 weeks btw vaccinations for to reach necessary antibody level in blood.

arsenal

August 6th, 2020, 17:32

Moses

August 6th, 2020, 19:46

Wuhan tested 11 million people in 10 days. The test takes longer than an injection. Once ready this vaccine will be administered with phenomenal speed. I'm still expecting to be able to go to Thailand in December though I accept this is less likely for those who reside in the west.

I think the main problem with vaccination will be not a vaccination itself, but trusting to power of this vaccination in one country by govt of country what you want to visit.

Manforallseasons

August 6th, 2020, 21:31

Wuhan tested 11 million people in 10 days. The test takes longer than an injection. Once ready this vaccine will be administered with phenomenal speed. I'm still expecting to be able to go to Thailand in December though I accept this is less likely for those who reside in the west.

It is very unrealistic to imagine a vaccine will be ready for general use and worldwide distribution to allow travel to return to anything resembling normality as soon as December 2020.

Nirish guy

August 6th, 2020, 21:39

goji

August 6th, 2020, 22:04

If a report published today by the Health Information and Quality Authority (HQIA) in the Republic of Ireland is correct even IF a vaccine is administered to everyone further evidence shows that its still unclear if long-term immunity to Covid 19 is even possible as it suggests that it may be possible to get reinfected again.

Whilst not claiming to be an expert, I imagine the report is correct.

It's not yet clear if a vaccine will give long term immunity -the trials will need to run for longer to show that.
It's not even 100% clear if the vaccines will give short term immunity, although there is some evidence that shows this is pretty likely.

That's also not the same as saying the vaccines won't give long term immunity -it's just an unknown.
Also, there is evidence that the response of some parts of the immune system to previous coronavirus infections have lasted well over a decade, so that's quite encouraging.

Even a vaccine every 6 months would be better than the current situation.

bkkguy

August 7th, 2020, 19:40

Also, there is evidence that the response of some parts of the immune system to previous coronavirus infections have lasted well over a decade, so that's quite encouraging.

the two parts of the immune system that are important here are antibodies and T-cells - with covid-19, antibodies are currently thought to only provide short-term immunity and T-cells longer-term immunity, and while nobody currently definitely knows what the time difference between short- and longer-term really is for covid-19, many of the current vaccines currently under development have shown good T-cell responses as well as antibodies - which yes is encouraging

but even if there are vaccines available, and widely distributed, early next year it will still be years before we have a good understanding of what is really effective - but again as you say that is better then the current situation - but I still don't understand how governments can establish procedures to open borders to tourists given all these unknowns

goji

August 8th, 2020, 04:06

even if there are vaccines available, and widely distributed, early next year it will still be years before we have a good understanding of what is really effective - but again as you say that is better then the current situation - but I still don't understand how governments can establish procedures to open borders to tourists given all these unknowns

Sample procedure:
1 Government decides it finally needs tourism money
2 Government allows visitors from country with low infection rate or extensive vaccination
3 Government monitors effect on local infection rates and adjusts policy as required

bkkguy

August 8th, 2020, 20:33

Sample procedure:

1 Government decides it finally needs tourism money
when all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail, when your tourism industry - and thus the economy - is suffering, getting the same number of tourists back is not the only/best solution

2 Government allows visitors from country with low infection rate or extensive vaccination
if Thailand had picked Vietnam as a low infection rate country at the end of July they would probably have regretted that by the end of the first week of August, just one example - do you need more?

some of us oldies may remember the yellow "vaccination passport" cards we used to travel with showing vaccination against diseases such as yellow fever, etc, before we could qualify for entry to some countries, these were for reasonably well understood diseases, vaccines, immunity, etc - what timeframe are you realistically projecting for this level of confidence for covid-19 vaccination? what timeframe are you realistically projecting for any country to achieve "extensive vaccination" and what will this actually mean in term of risk of spreading infection to the local population here?

3 Government monitors effect on local infection rates and adjusts policy as required
while not directly related to opening borders to tourists, you may like to look at situation in Victoria and New South Wales in Australia to see how quickly, and how successfully, governments can just "adjusts policy as required", other examples available

and internationally the debate continues on the difference of the long term impact on the economy, population mental and general health, etc of a second wave of infections and lockdowns v's maintaining fairly softly-softly slow releasing of restrictions

I am not saying Thailand should never be allowing entry of tourists again, I am just saying I don't see any easy answers in the next 6-12 months, possibly longer

arsenal

August 8th, 2020, 21:19

It's unlikely to be country by country. Far more likely is person by person. Technically you need a return ticket or an onward flight to enter Thailand and technically the airlines are supposed to check this. I've been asked once in 16 years.

Produce your vaccination certificate at check in or you're not allowed on the plane. Easy peasy.

bkkguy

August 8th, 2020, 21:23

Produce your vaccination certificate at check in or you're not allowed on the plane. Easy peasy.

I must of missed something obvious here - who is producing the "certificate" "easy peasy" and what exactly does it mean?

bkkguy

August 8th, 2020, 22:16

Produce your vaccination certificate at check in or you're not allowed on the plane. Easy peasy.

is the USA one of the countries you are expecting to produce this "certificate" "easy peasy"?

from a recent Medscape article (https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/935289) more than 40% of Americans are obese and "obesity has emerged as a factor making it more difficult to vaccinate adults against [other infections]. The question is whether that will hold true for COVID-19."

and the answer to that will be available in 1 day? 1 month? 1 year?

it is so nice to have "easy peasy" solutions available now isn't it?

Zebedee

August 9th, 2020, 00:32

Doctor Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist of the World Health Organization:

Historically, less than 10 percent of vaccine candidates that go into testing are successful. If some of the vaccines in human clinical trials are effective, they should be available sometime next year. But when exactly is very hard to predict. Very optimistically, the timeline for the first doses would be the first half of 2021.

It is important to note that even with a successful vaccine, there will be a limited number of doses initially. We will not have eight or ten billion doses available to be able to vaccinate the whole world. We might have a few hundred million doses, meaning we would have to prioritise some sections of the population - such as front-line workers, health workers, social care workers and others who are at very high risk. Thereafter, manufacturing can be scaled up, and more vaccine candidates tested. And hopefully, by 2022, we will be in a position to have many more vaccines available.

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/doctors-note-vaccine-efforts-covid-19-succeeding-200727160850273.html

arsenal

August 9th, 2020, 05:44

Not giving that much consideration to morbidly obese Americans.

As stated before. I'm expecting to be vaccinated and able to go to Thailand in December. Let's wait and see. Easy peasy.

Up2U

August 9th, 2020, 08:33

Dr. Anthony Fauci says chance of coronavirus vaccine being highly effective is ‘not great’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coronavirus-vaccine-dr-fauci-says-chances-of-it-being-highly-effective-is-not-great.html

WHO says the late-stage coronavirus trials don’t mean a vaccine is ‘nearly there’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/who-says-the-late-stage-coronavirus-trials-dont-mean-a-vaccine-is-nearly-there.html

Dodger

August 9th, 2020, 09:22

Doctor Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist of the World Health Organization:

Historically, less than 10 percent of vaccine candidates that go into testing are successful. If some of the vaccines in human clinical trials are effective, they should be available sometime next year. But when exactly is very hard to predict. Very optimistically, the timeline for the first doses would be the first half of 2021.

The possibility that a vaccine may never be found is also possible and being taken very seriously by experts at the World Health Organization -- because it's happened before. I prefer staying optimistic, but won't start counting any chickens yet.

That said, the concern that some people have about this pandemic disrupting their vacation plans pales in comparison to the death and destruction this pandemic is causing. Maybe it's time for some people to get their priorities in order. Just a thought!

Zebedee

August 9th, 2020, 12:35

That said, the concern that some people have about this pandemic disrupting their vacation plans pales in comparison to the death and destruction this pandemic is causing. Maybe it's time for some people to get their priorities in order. Just a thought!

Well said. The main reason I waded into this thread was because of some of the over optimistic views being expressed by some individuals. In fact I felt it was misleading to the extent that on reading, it almost trivialised the serious nature of the Virus and the effects it has and will continue to have for quite some time. Unfortunately the topic then became further divided,with "Expats " ( that pompous term gives me a chuckle) versus "tourists" ! Some comments were downright callous and unnecessary.
I would guess that the majority readership/ posters of this forum would be in the high risk age category, the very people that need to know the truth. Of course everyone is entitled to express their views, but given the topic those views should be made in "good faith" not simply to try to score points.

Oliver2

August 9th, 2020, 14:28

A genuinely alarming survey.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/09/only-half-of-britons-would-definitely-have-covid-19-vaccination

a447

August 9th, 2020, 14:44

A genuinely alarming survey.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/09/only-half-of-britons-would-definitely-have-covid-19-vaccination

Oliver, I think that's a mute point.

If a vaccine becomes available, those who refuse it will be the ones who get sick. They will quickly change their minds - unless they want to self - isolate for the rest of their lives because of the incredibly contagious nature of Covid.

Dodger wrote:

The possibility that a vaccine may never be found is also possible and being taken very seriously by experts at the World Health Organization -- because it's happened before.

Yes, it happened with Aids. But that is now more of an inconvenience than anything else, and certainly no longer a death sentence for those who can afford the medication.

I think the same will happen with the virus.

goji

August 9th, 2020, 15:41

I expect UK vaccine take up rates will be in excess of 80% when the time comes.
And, who cares ?
If people refuse a vaccine and catch covid, that's the consequence of their own choices. One or two high profile deaths amongst the anti-vaccers will soon change attitudes.
Ideally the NHS would refuse covid treatment for people who refuse the vaccine, but I suspect the management is too screwed up to take such decisions.

As far as I can tell, AIDS is a much more complex problem to solve than coronavirus, so not a good comparison. Also the technology is so much more advanced now than when AIDS first became a hot topic.

As for the minimum threshold being a vaccine reducing infection rates by 50%, surely that's only one measure of performance ? The severity of the disease amongst the other 50% should also be of interest.

bkkguy

August 9th, 2020, 20:13

As stated before. I'm expecting to be vaccinated and able to go to Thailand in December. Let's wait and see. Easy peasy

nothing I have seen in any details of the currently most promising vaccines have indicated the developers, or any other health commentators, expect them to be 100% effective in 100% of patients

I would be interested to see what phase III trial results will convince you, or your clinical advisor, that a vaccine that may be available to you in December will be effective enough for you to justify decisions such as a trip to Thailand

more importantly, I would be interested to see what clinical evidence you think will convince the Thai government to accept your "vaccination certificate" in December, particularly if you expect them to allow you in without having to undergo quarantine

personally I think the Thai government may well have a slightly less laissez faire attitude to such "easy peasy" decisions given their delicate balancing act of the short and long term economic and social effects of ongoing travel restrictions v's the short and long term economic and social effects of the increase in disease spread and death without such ongoing travel restrictions

I'm willing to admit I'm no expert, and I would be happy to see some links to what you are reading to make you so confidant of this prediction, and yes I could be wrong - riots in the streets by unemployed tourist related industries in the next few months may lead the Thai government to abandon its current conservative attitude and re-open the borders ignoring the possible consequences

as you say "Let's wait and see. Easy peasy"

Oliver2

August 9th, 2020, 20:36

The problem with large numbers of people not willing to be vaccinated has implications for us all, not only because of the effect on NHS facilities and programmes but because other countries may deny access to all of us if these foolish people are dropping like flies.

Manforallseasons

August 9th, 2020, 21:35

"I would be interested to see what phase III trial results will convince you, or your clinical advisor, that a vaccine that may be available to you in December will be effective enough for you to justify decisions such as a trip to Thailand"

Nothing you would understand. I shall keep my own counsel on this issue until I'm shown to be right or wrong.

Unfortunately, “for you to justify” is a small part of the issue as ultimately the Thai government will make that decision for you.

goji

August 9th, 2020, 22:29

Unfortunately, “for you to justify” is a small part of the issue as ultimately the Thai government will make that decision for you.

We know all governments decide their entry requirements, so repeating it is unlikely to enlighten us. Or wind anyone up in the way that you might intend.

After significant numbers of us have hypothetically been vaccinated in 3~12 months, well if the Thai government still has some crazy reason for denying us entry, no problem, we just go elsewhere.

sglad

August 9th, 2020, 23:24

Oliver, I think that's a mute point.

Yeeesss, coming from you it's a "mute" point indeed.

bkkguy

August 10th, 2020, 19:42

After significant numbers of us have hypothetically been vaccinated in 3~12 months, well if the Thai government still has some crazy reason for denying us entry, no problem, we just go elsewhere.

hopefully the Thai government will be spending the next 3-12 months organising large scale vaccination of the local population thus minimising the potential impact of opening the borders, making it easier for them to keep the supposedly huge numbers of tourists desperate to enter the country happy whether they are vaccinated or not

while I don't think your suggestion to exercise the option to "just go elsewhere" will have any significant effect on Thai government policy decisions, if it proves valuable to posters here perhaps you could post it on some ThaiVisa forums and the Bangkok Post postbag and online comments and forums - there are significant numbers there who seem to have missed this obvious option, though I suspect many of them may disagree with your "no problem" because deep down the just don't want to "go elsewhere" and unfortunately think it is up to the Thai government to change its thinking rather than them!

dab69

August 11th, 2020, 01:41

Up2U

August 11th, 2020, 08:16

Pfizer, Fauci, Oxford: "Vaccine could be ready in October"

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200515/pfizer-says-covid-19-vaccine-could-arrive-in-october

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/health/covid19-vaccine-from-oxford-university-to-be-ready-by-october/news-story/3c00cebe6ff36ae6552d73cdcec4a7f6

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/dr-fauci-just-said-we-could-have-a-covid-19-vaccine-by-october/ar-BB17f8UO

Some these links are old and things are changing rapidly. Pfizer for example cannot recruit sufficient numbers of volunteers for their third phase trial(Moderna doing better). If we get lucky and we can get millions of doses of an effective vaccine quickly, few of us here will meet the standard for vaccine (first-line defender, job, age, health, etc.). Thailand I suspect may not welcome tourists until most of their population is inoculated (well into 2021).

Fauci tells Americans to be mindful of these important limitations about any future coronavirus vaccine

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fauci-says-public-should-temper-expectations-on-covid-19-vaccine-as-us-infections-near-5-million-2020-08-09

However, America will have an effective vaccine against many viruses on November 3.

Zebedee

August 11th, 2020, 09:44

However, America will have an effective vaccine against many viruses on November 3.

Can you elaborate on this please? Im not "having a shot" but are you referring to the fact the US government bought up the entire world stock of Remdesivir?

"The US has bought up virtually all the stocks for the next three months of one of the two drugs proven to work against Covid-19, leaving none for the UK, Europe or most of the rest of the world."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug

this newspaper article is one month old also.

Up2U

August 11th, 2020, 09:57

Zebedee

August 11th, 2020, 11:44

November 3 is the national election in USA and the Trump virus and those associated with him will be eradicated.

Oh God!
I completely missed that.
Thank you.

GWMinUS

August 11th, 2020, 12:28

I remember having to carry a vaccination card with my passport showing that I was up-to-date with my boosters (for yellow fever and smallpox if I recall thru the mists of time).
Like rabies shots for my dog, they don't last a lifetime - covid-19 may well be the same.

Yes, I still have my Yellow Vaccination Card. I think this is a good way to show you have been vaccinated. But if the Covid Virus is like the Flu Virus you would need to show a shot every year.

francois

August 11th, 2020, 13:02

Delete

bkkguy

August 11th, 2020, 20:46

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200515/pfizer-says-covid-19-vaccine-could-arrive-in-october
this is from mid-May, but still the most encouraging quote from the article is (emphasis mine) "If the trial goes well and the vaccine is safe, the company will “be able to deliver millions of doses in the October timeframe,” Pfizer CEO and Chairman Albert Bourla said

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/health/covid19-vaccine-from-oxford-university-to-be-ready-by-october/news-story/3c00cebe6ff36ae6552d73cdcec4a7f6
this is from mid-July, but still the most encouraging quote from the article is (emphasis mine) "If all goes well, we will have the results of the clinical trials in August/September. We are manufacturing a parallel. We will be ready to deliver from October if all goes well" Pascal Soriot, from AstraZeneca said

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/dr-fauci-just-said-we-could-have-a-covid-19-vaccine-by-october/ar-BB17f8UO
this is from late July, and even though the screaming headline is "Dr. Fauci Just Said We Could Have a COVID-19 Vaccine by October" his actual comments quoted in the article were Fauci maintained that an October vaccine "is certainly conceivable." and "[we] might get an answer earlier than November, I doubt that, but we're leaving an open mind that that might be possible." and the article author concludes "It's important to note that Dr. Fauci did not say a vaccine would be ready to be distributed by October, or even November, just that one might simply be found to work."

you can read these headlines and articles and form your own conclusions with whatever level of optimism you like, but personally I don't think I would be making travel plans for November or December based on any of this

Up2U's link to the MarketWatch article is I think a more useful read, and as he says, and as I have said in earlier posts here, there are many other issues to consider between one or more vaccines being available to some people in some countries and Thailand deciding to open its borders to "vaccinated" travelers

it is not that I don't believe there could be a covid-19 vaccine at some time, perhaps even before the end of the year, but enabling travel to Thailand for Christmas? unlike some others here I just don't see it as "easy peasy"

Up2U

August 11th, 2020, 20:50

Oh damn!

Covid 19 coronavirus: Auckland in lockdown, rest of country in level 2 - Four cases of community transmission

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12355759

Aux1010

August 13th, 2020, 17:15

Yes, as an Auckland resident not the news we wanted!!

gerefan2

August 13th, 2020, 17:53

Oh damn!

Covid 19 coronavirus: Auckland in lockdown, rest of country in level 2 - Four cases of community transmission

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12355759

Wow that’s terrible. Four whole cases....awful.

Yesterday in the UK we had 1009 new cases and Brazil had 58081 new cases.

Marc K

August 14th, 2020, 08:44

Wow that’s terrible. Four whole cases....awful.

Yesterday in the UK we had 1009 new cases and Brazil had 58081 new cases.

Alas where there is smoke (today), there will likely be fire (tomorrow). Remember when there were only 2 cases in the US and Trump pronounced it "under control"??

gerefan2

August 15th, 2020, 06:20

Life has to continue....

goji

August 15th, 2020, 15:27

Keeping up the cheery theme, here's how I envisage board members adapting to their first Xmas at home for many years:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbL9Vsobx8I

Dodger

August 15th, 2020, 18:13

Keeping up the cheery theme, here's how I envisage board members adapting to their first Xmas at home for many years:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbL9Vsobx8I

Just too funny.

Check this one out...I laughed so hard I almost pissed in my pants:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELn-1iP3BDs

Zebedee

August 15th, 2020, 20:20

A happy ending...if you stay with it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YG8MAvXNP-g

Manforallseasons

August 17th, 2020, 21:51

https://www.traveldailymedia.com/thailand-reopening-international-tourism-may-not-happen-this-year/

arsenal

August 17th, 2020, 23:48

So to make things absolutely clear.

It's possible that perhaps travel might not be possible and that the virus could stop travel and might make travel difficult and things may take a while to make travel likely and that maybe it's going to be unlikely to travel and things can take some time to get somewhere whenever that is likely to be however things could change to make travel more possible even probable if maybe the things that might change do change.

I hope that's clear.

Nirish guy

August 18th, 2020, 02:22

I hope that's clear.

Or as Boris might put it - So if you're travelling - stay home, but travel when you feel you can, but stay home until you travel and only then after staying home, then do so until you travel, where if travelling you should really stay home, unless travel is unavoidable and it is it's fine, just as long as you're staying home whilst doing that. And whatever you do wear a mask, except when you cant and then don't, but make sure whilst not doing that that you wear your mask.

As that seems to sum up most British Government travel advice about most things these days apparently.

Dodger

August 18th, 2020, 10:45

https://www.traveldailymedia.com/thailand-reopening-international-tourism-may-not-happen-this-year/

The Travel Daily Media article above states that "Elite Card Members" are included in those being allowed in-country, which is NOT TRUE.

According to everything I've been reading, the foreign Thai Embassy's have not acknowledged this as of yet, and without their acknowledgement a visa to come to Thailand will not be provided...end of story!

Also, according to the latest news releases on this subject, if and when this approval for Elite Card Members is linked to the foreign embassy's there will be QUOTAS and CONDITIONS that apply. You gotta love it. They're trying to sucker people in with the lure of a 20 year visa for a million baht, with absolutely no assurances that the members will even be able to board a plane to Thailand, let alone get white glove treatment upon their arrivals. What if one of the CCSA conditions is that no one (including Elite Card Members) can gain access to Thailand if they're coming from a country which ranks as "high risk"...(which would cover half the countries on the planet right now). I guess the poor guy who just spent a million baht ($34,000) for his membership in Immigration's Mickey Mouse Club has a bit more to be depressed about.

There is reportedly a surge in Elite Card Membership applications pouring in mostly from the USA and UK. I hope the applicants are doing their homework before making these huge on-line payments...which of course, are non-refundable.

What a scam!

arsenal

August 18th, 2020, 11:14

This idea that Thailand (or any other country for that matter) can cherry pick groups of desirable people to come in is ridiculous. Only mass vaccination of entire populations is going to achieve anything.

As it stands, anyone who falls into the arbitrary category of desirable is unlikely to be prepared to jump through the necessary hoops.

Old git

August 19th, 2020, 20:34

On the subject of vaccination, it has to be noted that not only has there never been an effective vaccine for any type of corona virus in the past, but studies of people who have had the bug show a fairly rapid attenuation of antibodies. The best we can probably hope for is a monthly jab for the most vulnerable.

On the matter of the economic cost to Thailand, we have to recognise the delusion in Thai government circles when it comes to the importance of tourism to the Thai economy. I am pretty certain that the official figures do not count the cash paid to working girls and boys and the support given to Thai families by farangs. Most spending in bars also probably goes under the radar. It may well be the case that the financial dependence of the Issan economy on the sex tourism trade will only become apparent when there is another red shirt revolt, but their impoverishment may not provoke that on a major scale until the new year.

Meanwhile the delusion that the bug can be eradicated is now laid bare by it's resurgence in New Zealand - previously the only country with a million plus population that appeared to be anywhere close to achieving that. However against that, the medical profession has got treating this bug pretty well sorted now, and deaths are pretty much confined to those who were already in their final days.

We have to live with this bug, and get back to normal, but I suspect that getting that message accepted in the LoS may take longer than in many other destinations. I suspect the Caribbean and Latin America will be much quicker off the mark than Thailand in that regard, at a great and enduring cost to the Thai economy.

But.. there could now be some opportunities in the LoS. Chinese interests have invested very heavily in tourism real estate in recent years, but the tourists themselves were pretty useless to the Thai economy, mostly arriving with very little spending money. Politically, welcoming back Chinese tourists will be a very hot potato, so I expect their numbers will fall dramatically, even after normality has resumed. It follows that there may well be a glut of property on the market in the tourist areas, and some consequent bargains to be had.

There is also a sporting chance that Thailand's over-priced currency will correct as the tourist high season is not matched by forex inflows; however as forex markets are notoriously counter-intuitive, I'm not making a hard forecast there.

The 64 thousand dollar question is whether the high octane intimate nightlife scene will resume as of old, or whether tourists (and in particular older, and more vulnerable tourists) will prefer a more cautious option - time will tell..

goji

August 19th, 2020, 20:48

The best we can probably hope for is a monthly jab for the most vulnerable.

How do you conclude that ?

Whilst it may be a possible outcome, I haven't seen anything that remotely suggests this is a best case. If you have, please share the link.

There have been studies showing that T-cells are present almost 20 years after the sars cov-1 outbreak & apparently this improves resistance (I'm not an expert).
The following article is interesting: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02400-7

Old git

August 19th, 2020, 22:46

goji

August 19th, 2020, 23:16

"How do you conclude that ?"

Simply seems a reasonable deduction, given that the natural resistance built up during an infection (antibodies) are being observed to wear off pretty quickly. It follows that the resistance delivered by a vaccine is also likely to wear off rapidly.

From what I'm reading, the antibody count falls off quite quickly, which isn't necessarily the same thing as resistance.
(i) They don't know how many antibodies are needed to provide immunity.
(ii) T-cells, memory-B cells and who knows whatever other parts of the immune system have a much longer life. That's from what I read. I'm making no claims of expertise in this topic, but it is interesting and very relevant to when life might get back to normal.

Incidentally, all I can remember about the immune system from my biology O-level was antibodies. None of this stuff about T-cells, memory-B cells and several other methods of immune system response.
Am not sure if we got a simplified syllabus, or if I just forgot. Or even if some of it wasn't well known back in the 1980s.

Old git

August 19th, 2020, 23:41

My education was pretty similar..

sglad

August 20th, 2020, 02:19

On the matter of the economic cost to Thailand, we have to recognise the delusion in Thai government circles when it comes to the importance of tourism to the Thai economy. I am pretty certain that the official figures do not count the cash paid to working girls and boys and the support given to Thai families by farangs. Most spending in bars also probably goes under the radar. It may well be the case that the financial dependence of the Issan economy on the sex tourism trade will only become apparent when there is another red shirt revolt, but their impoverishment may not provoke that on a major scale until the new year.

Do you have any figures/sources to support your assertions at all? Or is this just another case of the white man overstating his importance to the Thai people and economy as he forlornly brushes his pith helmet with one hand and jerks off his withering cock over a naked pic of a brown Thai boy whom he can't wait to "help" or rather, help himself to, with the other?

The Thai powers-that-be are under no delusion about the impact the China virus has had on their economy - the dire statistics are coming out everyday - but all things considered, they've decided to put their people's safety and health above all else. No doubt farang who are used to the self-comforting mindset that everything is about money in Thailand are finding the current state of affairs unsettling and an affront to their own fragile sense of self-worth and usefulness.

If you knew anything about Thailand, you'd know that 90% of the sex industry is meant for local consumption and far away from the neon lights of Pattaya, Patong and Patpong. The remaining 10% comprise of Chinese, Japanese and other SE Asians, with white Caucasians a fast decreasing number.

goji

August 20th, 2020, 02:20

A torrent of good news. An interesting video regarding immunity.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5Z6wdu1eI0

Marc K

August 20th, 2020, 02:28

Interesting to read the opinions of all of us armchair epidemiologists! :) The truth of the matter is simple -- nobody really knows what the future of COVID portends for the world, nor for us specifically as Thai-philes. The truth will reveal itself little by little, as time goes by, and we all hope that the truth points in our favor, not toward the most pessimistic prognosis.

In the meantime, Thailand will begin to learn how to live without our pound notes, and greenbacks, and plastic money from down under. So I think a far more serious question is whether we will have anything to return to once this episode from hell fizzles. And that could be one month, six months, one year, or ten years from now.

latintopxxx

August 20th, 2020, 02:53

...i casn imagine that once we are allowed back into Thailand we'll be net at the airport by hordes of super desperate mbs who will ravish us on the tarmac...

arsenal

August 20th, 2020, 11:24

I think a447 already gets that.

francois

August 20th, 2020, 13:25

...i casn imagine that once we are allowed back into Thailand we'll be net at the airport by hordes of super desperate mbs who will ravish us on the tarmac...

Not at the airport but back in town you will.

Oliver2

August 20th, 2020, 14:01

Old git

August 20th, 2020, 14:13

"If you knew anything about Thailand, you'd know that 90% of the sex industry is meant for local consumption and far away from the neon lights of Pattaya, Patong and Patpong. The remaining 10% comprise of Chinese, Japanese and other SE Asians, with white Caucasians a fast decreasing number."

Oh dear.. - after making a wild assumption that I don't do my homework, you then parrot the oldest chestnut of them all..

90%? - by volume of activity, possibly a little over half, by revenue, way below that. I know where truck drivers stop off to get their kicks, I know where the Thai brothels are. I also know where Thai men cruise in their cars for underage boys in Bangkok - but I will never post the detail of that.

For the past two decades I've made genuine friends amongst sex workers - I love talking to them. They have often filled me in with little insights as to how the the domestic scene works, and it's nastier aspects - notably the girls who get given the choice of prostitution or jail by the police - usually following a drugs bust - with the police taking a cut of their earnings.

But the one thing that shines through all these chats is that the farang trade is where the money is - the domestic market is very small change..

Dodger

August 20th, 2020, 15:19

A positive development....possibly. A return to normality requires both governments to enable tourism.

https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2020/aug/19/heathrow-rapid-covid-test-centre-could-replace-quarantine

I wonder why they chose Iceland to run their trial test. Wouldn't Antarctica have been better?

francois

August 20th, 2020, 17:32

I wonder why they chose Iceland to run their trial test. Wouldn't Antarctica have been better?

Easy answer, No.

Nirish guy

August 20th, 2020, 20:42

Wouldn't Antarctica have been better?

Looking forward to hearing the logic behind that one ?

Population of Iceland - 365,000 give or take
Population of Antarctica - 1000 to 5000 depending on the season

Bit of a difference there - and I'm guessing even the 1000 of Antarctica would be somewhat pissed off if after "testing" for us 50% of the no placebo test group ALL got sick, infected the rest and they ALL died in the end !!

Dodger

August 21st, 2020, 08:23

Looking forward to hearing the logic behind that one ?

Population of Iceland - 365,000 give or take
Population of Antarctica - 1000 to 5000 depending on the season

Bit of a difference there - and I'm guessing even the 1000 of Antarctica would be somewhat pissed off if after "testing" for us 50% of the no placebo test group ALL got sick, infected the rest and they ALL died in the end !!

I was just joking.

From the article I was assuming they used humans to conduct these tests, but maybe they felt penguins would suffice.

Nirish guy

August 21st, 2020, 16:30

I was just joking.

From the article I was assuming they used humans to conduct these tests, but maybe they felt penguins would suffice.

PLM !!!!

christianpfc

August 21st, 2020, 23:03

sglad: "If you knew anything about Thailand, you'd know that 90% of the sex industry is meant for local consumption and far away from the neon lights of Pattaya, Patong and Patpong. ...

Old git: 90%? - by volume of activity, possibly a little over half, by revenue, way below that. I know where truck drivers stop off to get their kicks, I know where the Thai brothels are. I also know where Thai men cruise in their cars for underage boys in Bangkok - but I will never post the detail of that.

I largely agree with Old git. The was majority, let's say 90%, of gay prostitution that I know* is aimed at tourists. The remaining 10% are the cruising by car around the park in Bangkok and karaoke places in Pradipat / Saphan Kwai and some trade in sex cinemas and various gay massage places in the outskirts of Bangkok.

*You could argue that I just don't know all the places that make up the Thai-for-Thai gay prostitution.
But I researched that long and far and haven't found any.

For girly places I guess half aimed at tourists and half aimed at locals.

Jellybean

August 21st, 2020, 23:46

I was just joking.

From the article I was assuming they used humans to conduct these tests, but maybe they felt penguins would suffice.

PLM !!!!

I’m getting on in years, NIrish-guy, and somewhat slow on the uptake. I found it necessary to Google (other search engines are available) “PLM”.

My first search produced the following from the Free Dictionary (https://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/PLM), but that did not seem to fit the bill. Then I tried “PLM in texting” (http://acronymsandslang.com/definition/934009/PLM-meaning.html#:~:text=PLM%20means%20Pathetic%20Litt le%20Monkey%20This%20acronym%2Fslang%20usually,to% 20Internet%20Slang%2C%20Chat%20Texting%20%26%20Sub culture%20category.)but that seemed rather rude, so I tried the Urban Dictionary (https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=PLM) and then it dawned on me, you meant - Penguins Lives Matter.

Doh! :rolleyes:

Nirish guy

August 22nd, 2020, 05:41

Ha well it seems you’re not totally shot JUST yet as you got there in the end :-)

dab69

August 22nd, 2020, 07:50

Up2U

August 22nd, 2020, 11:29

This interactive website (from cnbc) for those itching to travel might find useful.....

https://covidcontrols.co/

Dodger

August 22nd, 2020, 11:41

https://www.thejakartapost.com/travel/2020/08/21/thailand-to-allow-long-stay-tourists-in-island-of-phuket-from-october.html

End not in sight but maybe around the corner?

Borrowed from "spoon" s post on GayGuides

https://www.gayguides.com/forums/topic/13069-thailand-to-allow-long-stay-tourists-in-island-of-phuket-from-october/

If tourists will be permitted to travel to other destinations in Thailand after their 14 day quarantine on Phuket - this could be the "open door" that many are looking for. Who knows!

Nirish guy

August 22nd, 2020, 18:42

It would NEED to be long stayers just using the above possible "open door" seeing as a month in total would need to be spent in quarantine if going back and forth to and from Thailand. :-(

Dodger

August 22nd, 2020, 19:01

It would NEED to be long stayers just using the above possible "open door" seeing as a month in total would need to be spent in quarantine if going back and forth to and from Thailand. :-(

Good point.

I have a friend who retired here 2 years ago...returned home (USA) to visit his sister in January...got stranded. He has a current multi-entry retirement visa. I'm wondering if he could enter through Phuket...quarantine 14 days...fly to Bangkok...quarantine an additional 14 days...and then return to his cozy apartment in Pattaya on his retirement visa. Just wondering.

Nirish guy

August 22nd, 2020, 21:03

gerefan2

August 22nd, 2020, 21:16

Or arrive in Phuket, do the 14 days "jail time" and then jump on a bus or train and never mind the 2nd 14 days perhaps - BUT - I've a sneaking feeling they'll be watching like a hawk for that very thing and I wouldn't be surprised if your continued presence would be required and checked upon back in Phuket even after the first 14 days were up - mind this TIT so who knows !!

Why not read the quoted article instead of making up your own rules?!

It clearly says two weeks solitary in your hotel followed by one week on Phuket island (within the province) before being free to travel to other parts of the country.

Hopefully they will have a solitary centre in Pattaya too.

Dodger

August 23rd, 2020, 11:57

According to what a few friends told me this morning, this new proposal covers Samui and a few of the others islands as well, not just Phuket. This is hear-say of course, but this will be interested to watch unfold.

If this thing does play-out (BIG IF), I would probably be inclined to come in as a long-term tourist (90 day stay with extension)....spend 3 weeks on Phuket, and then have 9 weeks in Pattaya, Bangkok, Chiang Mai, or where ever. It would be better than a stick in the eye.

francois

August 23rd, 2020, 18:35

If this thing does play-out (BIG IF), I would probably be inclined to come in as a long-term tourist (90 day stay with extension)....spend 3 weeks on Phuket, and then have 9 weeks in Pattaya, Bangkok, Chiang Mai, or where ever. It would be better than a stick in the eye.

You are already here Dodger; why be inclined to do otherwise? :devilsh:

StevieWonders

August 24th, 2020, 14:50

According to an interview with the Transport Minister quoted in Bloomberg today this is just a “proposal” that’s “likely to be tested in Phuket”. As well as the mandatory 14 days in quarantine tourists will “probably be required to wear wristbands with GPS tracking”

Oh and it’s longer-stay tourists - that is you’ll need a visa, reading between the lines

goji

August 24th, 2020, 19:24

Oh and it’s longer-stay tourists - that is you’ll need a visa, reading between the lines
If tourists have to spend 14 days in quarantine, then I guess the whole scheme is only likely to attract longer term tourists in any case. No one will do 14 days in quarantine for a 3 week holiday.

There is an advantage with longer term tourists, as 1 tourist staying for 90 days is lower risk than 6 tourists staying for 15 days.
If Thailand want to attract longer term visitors, perhaps they should make it easier to stay for 90 days. Currently, I think you need a 60 day visa, then visit immigration, pay 1900 baht and get an extra 30 days. They could just offer a 90 day e-visa.

gerefan2

August 24th, 2020, 21:11

I
Currently, I think you need a 60 day visa, then visit immigration, pay 1900 baht and get an extra 30 days. They could just offer a 90 day e-visa.

I always get a 90 day visa before leaving the UK. Depends on circumstances .

Zebedee

October 7th, 2020, 12:38

Can you elaborate on this please? Im not "having a shot" but are you referring to the fact the US government bought up the entire world stock of Remdesivir?

"The US has bought up virtually all the stocks for the next three months of one of the two drugs proven to work against Covid-19, leaving none for the UK, Europe or most of the rest of the world."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug

this newspaper article is one month old also.

It seems the Donald might have been on to something! Time will tell.

"A global shortage of remdesivir, one of the key Covid-19 drugs given to Donald Trump since he tested positive for the virus, is leading to rationing in the UK and pressure on the manufacturer to allow other companies to supply it."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/global-shortage-of-key-covid-drug-leads-to-nhs-rationing-remdesivir

goji

October 7th, 2020, 14:22

"A global shortage of remdesivir, one of the key Covid-19 drugs given to Donald Trump since he tested positive for the virus, is leading to rationing in the UK and pressure on the manufacturer to allow other companies to supply it."

Gilead has already licensed this drug. However, the licenses are only for distribution in 127 lower income countries. Obviously they are intent on recovering their R&D investment in higher income countries. It should not be difficult to license it for sale in other high income countries with a different license fee structure.

https://www.gilead.com/purpose/advancing-global-health/covid-19/voluntary-licensing-agreements-for-remdesivir