Vaccine development: COVID-19 vs HIV/AIDS

[Marc K]

Am I the only one wondering why they are talking of a 12-18 MONTH development period for a COVID-19 vaccine but we have been waiting now for 40 YEARS for an HIV/AIDS vaccine??

Now it is true that HIV/AIDS is a tougher target -- a) it is caused by a retrovirus rather than a coronavirus, b) HIV/AIDS is known to mutate frequently presumably making it a far harder target to attack.

HOWEVER, 40 YEARS difference? And still no vaccine?


https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/hiv-vaccine-research-history

[goji]

HIV/AIDS is known to mutate frequently presumably making it a far harder target to attack.
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/hiv-vaccine-research-history

You have answered your own question there. HIV is much more difficult to attack, as it mutates.

Additionally, the technical capability for vaccine development has improved immensely in the last 40 years, so anything starting now has a much better chance of succeeding quickly.

[Nirish guy]

oh and most of the rest of the (straight) world dont actually give a flying fuck about finding a cure for HIV probably anyway as it's still seen as a "gay" disease, there is always that too I guess...... :-(

[cdnmatt]

Will let you in on a secret. There is no vaccine coming. There's maybe a KoVid-19 flu shot coming, but that's not a vaccine. It'll decrease your chances of getting the virus, but won't make you immune to it ala a measles or hepatatis immunization.

We're basically all stuck waiting for herd immunity to take effect.

[dab69]

They are wondering if you can get infected twice/reinfected.
As in, a vaccine won't do much good.
But they aren't coming out and SAYING that.

More speculation on little facts so far...

One week they say "the virus might lessen as warm weather approaches".
Isn't it 95 degrees daily in Thailand now?

development hell they've got at least three already.
testing/evaluation takes the time.

[cdnmatt]

Exactly. Don't worry about what any of the politicians are saying, and worry about what the the epidemiologists are saying.

16 months, herd immunity, that's what's happening.

Yes, the warm weather will probably help stop the spreading in the northern hemisphere this summer, but during that time, keep your eyes on the southern hemisphere. If you see on the news a bunch of epidemics breaking out in the southern hemisphere, then guaranteed this virus is coming back in Sept / Oct.

[dab69]

Coming back?
It has to go away first...

[gerefan2]

One week they say "the virus might lessen as warm weather approaches".
Isn't it 95 degrees daily in Thailand now?
.

Exactly...95 degrees ....and they have had 30 odd deaths.
In the UK it is barely 70 degrees and we have had over 10,000 deaths.
Similar population.

[cdnmatt]

Again, listen to the doctors, not the politicans. Then go look at history and learn about the Spanish Flu.

This thing will have probably, three waves, and will start dissipating shortly. Don't let that calm your nerves though, and keep your eye on South America and Africa during the following summer months. If you call of a sudden see a bunch of epidemics breaking out down there, then guaranteed it's coming back this fall. I guess doctors may magically pull a rabbit out of a hat sometime in the next few months, but wouldn't count on it, and when this thing comes back in the fall, that will be the real death tool.

October, 1918, 600,000 Americans got wiped out due to the second wave of the Spanish Flu. Unless there's some really cool medical break throughs in the next month or two, you can expect the same this time around. I'm currently on day 5 of not smoking, because fuck KoVid-19, and fuck the cigarette companies, and because I have every intention of checking out this world once the virus is over.

[Marc K]

I'm currently on day 5 of not smoking, because fuck KoVid-19, and fuck the cigarette companies, and because I have every intention of checking out this world once the virus is over.

Congrats Matt! This must be day 6 by the time you read this. This is terrific news. One less person with that stinking, disgusting habit! But as for checking out, I hope you are with us for many years to come!

As for the virus cooling down in the "summer", I guess we will all have to just wait and see. Listening to Trump on this subject makes me nauseous.

[Marc K]

oh and most of the rest of the (straight) world dont actually give a flying fuck about finding a cure for HIV probably anyway as it's still seen as a "gay" disease, there is always that too I guess...... :-(

Hey Nirish, Actually this was the theme of the OP. If an effective COVID virus does materialize in a shortened (12-18?) month development period, then we will know once and for all just how much the world concentrated (or didn't concentrate) on developing an HIV vaccine.

[Khor tose]

Since a vaccine has been found for HepC, I have wondered why no HIV vaccine. Like HepC the HIV virus can hide in the body and so far cannot be eliminated (they say) but so does HepC and herpes. HIV does not mutate. Read here for why it is hard to vaccinate for HIV. https://www.healthline.com/health/hiv-aids/vaccine-how-close-are-we. You can have a vaccine for flu, but flu changes every year and a vaccine that worked for one year will not work again.

A flu vaccine is needed every season for two reasons. First, a person’s immune protection from vaccination declines over time, so an annual vaccine is needed for optimal protection. Second, because flu viruses are constantly changing, flu vaccines may be updated from one season to the next to protect against the viruses that research suggests may be most common during the upcoming flu season. For the best protection, everyone 6 months and older should get vaccinated annually.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/keyfacts.htm

[dab69]

Khor Tose:

from your own link:

https://www.healthline.com/health/hiv-aids/vaccine-how-close-are-we

8. The HIV virus mutates quickly

A vaccine targets a virus in a particular form. If the virus changes, the vaccine may not work on it anymore. HIV mutates quickly, so it’s hard to create a vaccine to work against it.

[bkkguy]

Isn't it 95 degrees daily in Thailand now?


Exactly...95 degrees ....and they have had 30 odd deaths.
In the UK it is barely 70 degrees and we have had over 10,000 deaths.
Similar population.

I think we need to look a bit further than simplistic things like temperature

[Khor tose]

Khor Tose:

from your own link:

https://www.healthline.com/health/hiv-aids/vaccine-how-close-are-we

8. The HIV virus mutates quickly

A vaccine targets a virus in a particular form. If the virus changes, the vaccine may not work on it anymore. HIV mutates quickly, so it’s hard to create a vaccine to work against it.
I stand corrected, my info I based that on IS out of date. Thank you.

[goji]

If an effective COVID virus does materialize in a shortened (12-18?) month development period, then we will know once and for all just how much the world concentrated (or didn't concentrate) on developing an HIV vaccine.
No.
The viruses are completely different, so any development of a COVID-19 vaccine will tell us absolutely nothing about how much the world concentrated on a vaccine for HIV.


As for temperature, I understand other Coronaviruses also spread in hot weather (e.g. MERS).

[Marc K]

Since a vaccine has been found for HepC, I have wondered why no HIV vaccine.https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/keyfacts.htm


Add to the list the HPV vaccine [Gardasil] which also has multiple strains (16 known strains I believe, and up to 100 substrains) but still the vaccine appears to be >99% effective. So where is the HIV vaccine?

https://www.webmd.com/sexual-conditions/hpv-genital-warts/qa/how-effective-are-hpv-vaccines

[bkkguy]

Add to the list the HPV vaccine [Gardasil] which also has multiple strains (16 known strains I believe, and up to 100 substrains) but still the vaccine appears to be >99% effective. So where is the HIV vaccine?

https://www.webmd.com/sexual-conditions/hpv-genital-warts/qa/how-effective-are-hpv-vaccines

your linked article answers part of the question - HPV vaccines don't protect against all of the 100-plus types of HPV but are nearly 100% effective in preventing disease caused by high-risk strains of HPV -- HPV 16 and 18 which account for 70% of all cervical cancers, as well as many cancers of the vagina and vulva!

the situation with HIV is much more complex - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV_vaccine) is perhaps a reasonably accessible starting point to understand why but a Google search reveals many more resources to explain the problems

[goji]

There are some people posting here who really should do just a little reading about vaccines and viruses before demanding answers.

You cannot reasonably complain that we don't have a HIV vaccine, just because we have vaccines for a small number of the HPV strains or MIGHT have a vaccine for Covid 19. The viruses are all completely different.

We also don't have a vaccine for the common cold.

To expect a vaccine for every virus, is rather like demanding we put a man on the sun and every other damn planet or sun in the solar system, just because we once put a man on the moon.

[Marc K]

You can have a vaccine for flu, but flu changes every year and a vaccine that worked for one year will not work again.

.. Second, because flu viruses are constantly changing, flu vaccines may be updated from one season to the next to protect against the viruses that research suggests may be most common during the upcoming flu season. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/keyfacts.htm


I'm not a virologist but not sure this is quite accurate. There are a number of recurring, prominent strains of flu viruses (16?) And each season the folks who must decide (guess) which strain(s) are likely to dominate during the next flu season. Sometimes they are right on, and other times far off base. As I understand it, this winter they were far off base.

So yes the flu changes each year as it becomes a new mixture of strains in different intensities. At least that's how I understand it.

[Marc K]

your linked article answers part of the question - HPV vaccines don't protect against all of the 100-plus types of HPV but are nearly 100% effective in preventing disease caused by high-risk strains of HPV -- HPV 16 and 18 which account for 70% of all cervical cancers, as well as many cancers of the vagina and vulva!

Of the vagina, the vulva, the anus, the penis. And the "dangerous" strains can cause cervical cancer, anal warts, anal cancer and, less frequently, penile warts and penile cancer.

And yes Gardasil is highly efficacious. For the life of me I don't know why every teenage girl and teenage boy is not vaccinated! For a time our university offered the shots (3 over 6 months) for free! I assumed I'd see students lining up around the block, but I was shocked to see that our student body greeted the offer with a ho-hum. It's a mystery to me why.

[a447]

We also don't have a vaccine for the common cold.

To expect a vaccine for every virus, is rather like demanding we put a man on the sun and every other damn planet or sun in the solar system, just because we once put a man on the moon.

If, despite years of research, we still don't have a vaccine for the common cold, what are the chances that we will magically come up with a vaccine for covid19? It seems like a case of wishful thinking.

I think a treatment of some kind is the best we can hope for.

PS: great analogy, goji!

[Smiles]

" ... I'm not a virologist but not sure this is quite accurate ... "I guess I'll get stomped on, but shirley to christ there must be some members here who would rather talk about "all things Thai (and viral)" ... in The Sawatdee Gay Thailand Forum. The OP makes not a skerrick of Thai-ness. (Though the sentence " ... the vagina, the vulva, the anus, the penis ..." did manage to get it's head up.)

A discussion it is ~ and a decently good one ~ but in the Everything Else Forum it should be.
Stomp away sweet cakes ...

[francois]

The Everything Else Forum is just a dumping ground for topics that the others like to file, what they consider, useless info. It should be done away with.

[Smiles]

" ... The Everything Else Forum is just a dumping ground for topics ... "
Wrongo my man. The Everything Forum is a legit forum which was well used up until a few years ago when this message board had far away many more working members who posted regularly. Now I could count on my 10 fingers dudes who could be counted as regulars.
The Holding Room Forum is the board's Gulag. Or Devil's Island, just for you.

[goji]

And yes Gardasil is highly efficacious. For the life of me I don't know why every teenage girl and teenage boy is not vaccinated!

In the UK, the NHS currently offers the Gardasil vaccine for both teenage boys & girls, plus men under 45 who have sex with men.
People outside this age range could get the vaccine at private providers.

[a447]

It's offered to high school kids in Australia, too.

[francois]

And unless you have a special crystal ball for reading people's minds, you don't know what other people "consider" "useless" or important information and shouldn't speak for them.

I have no crystal ball, sglad, but just about everything in the Everything Else Forum could just as easy been left in the general forum.

[goji]

If, despite years of research, we still don't have a vaccine for the common cold, what are the chances that we will magically come up with a vaccine for covid19? It seems like a case of wishful thinking.

I think a treatment of some kind is the best we can hope for.

The point I was trying to make is we should not extrapolate findings and expectations from one family of viruses to another.

The "experts" seem to think it WILL be possible to find and approve a vaccine for the Chinese coronavirus. Maybe next year, maybe later.

However, no one should use that as a basis to complain that there isn't a HIV vaccine, as HIV a completely different family of viruses, prone to all sorts of mutations & much more difficult to deal with.

e.g. They still don't have a vaccine for the common cold, which is another virus family (Rhinovirus).


Treatment is something that isn't discussed as much as I would like.
The UK government has a daily briefing and afterwards, all these thick journalists get to ask questions. Instead of asking sensible questions about topics like treatment trials and other activities to optimise treatment, they try to make a name for themselves with aggressive & silly questions.

[arsenal]

With over 200 viruses causing the 'common' cold a vaccine is impossuble.

https://www.medicinenet.com/common_cold/article.htm#what_is_the_common_cold_what_causes_th e_common_cold

[christianpfc]

There is a joke which fits the question how long it takes to develop a vaccine:

One woman is pregnant for 9 months before giving birth to a child.
How long does it take 9 women to give birth to a child?

The point is, there are processes in research (personal experience) that cannot be sped up by throwing money or man-hours at them.

[Smiles]

I have no crystal ball, sglad, but just about everything in the Everything Else Forum could just as easy been left in the general forum.Or how about moving the 'Everything Else' forum to second place in the queue, instead of way down yonder.
The 'Everything Else' forum has more posts (granted, not lately) than all the other forums put together (Threads = 2,110 Posts = 19,633) ... except the Sawatdee Gay Thailand forum of course.

[GWMinUS]

"However, no one should use that as a basis to complain that there isn't a HIV vaccine, as HIV a completely different family of viruses, prone to all sorts of mutations & much more difficult to deal with."

The two PeRP medications are very effective in preventing HIV. But you must take one pill each day forever. So not like getting your annual Flu Shot. But the nearest thing we have to a Vaccine.

[GWMinUS]

Smiles, if you have a problem with where a Thread is located on the Forum, then take it up with the Moderators. In private. Now you are the one flooding this Conversation.

[Smiles]

"I guess I'll get stomped on ..."That worked out well ...
Flooding? This thread has 33 posts and 1641 views, and good wishes for that. As for my lowly part, my 3 posts were conjured up in a thin puddle, hardly a flood.
As for Mods, I think I'll stay here. As for you, carry on with your hyperbole.