wowpow
July 20th, 2006, 08:24
Bangkok Post 20th July 2006
"A recent Mahidol University study on birth rate trends in Thailand predicts that this country will be facing zero population growth by 2020. Associate Professor Pattama Wawattanawong of Mahidol said that the elderly currently account for only 10% of the population, but the percentage would rise to 25% within 30 years. The study predicts that Thailand's population will peak in 15 years' time at 65 million, after which it will go into decline. Zero population growth is a serious problem. The United Nations says a rate of 2.1 children per woman is required just to maintain a country's population in the developed world but few developed countries are now achieving this.
In Europe, for instance, Iceland is the most productive country with a fertility rate of 2.03 children per woman, while Ireland with 1.99 and France with 1.90 are ranked second and third, according to Eurostat, the EU's statistics service.
The overall fertility rate for American women in 2005 was about 2.1 births per woman but America is also getting older, too, threatening both private pensions and Social Security, the government pension programme. The US is fortunate that it has a Hispanic ethnic group which is contributing more than any other towards the acceptable birth rate. Hispanics accounted for 49% of the US nationwide population growth of 2.8 million between July 2004 and July 2005, according to US Census Bureau figures. Experts say, however, that the US is unlikely to age as significantly as Europe any time soon.
In Asia, Japan is facing a crisis with its low fertility rate of just 1.25. The Japanese government announced in early June that more than one in five Japanese is now 65 or older, and that ratio could rise to one in four in the next decade. Tokyo has been slow in addressing the issue but has begun by keeping seniors in the job market. Upon retirement, seniors can return to their former companies and receive a government pension in addition to a reduced salary.
The Mahidol University study shows that the time is now for our legislators to also begin to address the problem of a greying population. Only recently Thailand's first aged care home was established but as it is a private institution, it only caters for the wealthy.
Unfortunately for Thailand, our ageing population will be scattered across all ethnic races and income brackets and it will ultimately become a responsibility of the government to provide care for many of the elderly, something which it has not had to do previously. While we must plan for an ageing society, another way to address the problem is to increase the population and Thailand has many possible options that other countries do not have.
In an effort to encourage couples to have children, many European countries as well as Australia have beefed up government benefits for families with children. In Austria, that includes monthly payouts of 436 euros (21,300 baht) for the youngest child until the age of three, and additional monthly cheques up to 153 euros (7,500 baht), depending on the age of offspring. In France, Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin this month introduced financial incentives for parents to have a third child.
Thailand already has on its doorstep a few simple ways to increase its population. Hilltribe people have been waiting for years to be granted Thai citizenship but red tape has continually stood in their way, even though many have been born in this country and speak and write the language. On the border with Burma are refugee camps brimming with potential tax-paying workers. In the camps the women are giving birth to babies on Thai soil with little hope of ever returning to their homeland.
And in Ban Huay Nam Khao in Phetchabun's Khao Kho district, up to 6,500 Hmong, allegedly from Laos even though Vientiane denies this, huddle in makeshift shelters on the side of the road. Expensive schemes, like in Europe, are not necessary, provided the government can find an equitable way to utilise the resources already existing on Thai soil."
"A recent Mahidol University study on birth rate trends in Thailand predicts that this country will be facing zero population growth by 2020. Associate Professor Pattama Wawattanawong of Mahidol said that the elderly currently account for only 10% of the population, but the percentage would rise to 25% within 30 years. The study predicts that Thailand's population will peak in 15 years' time at 65 million, after which it will go into decline. Zero population growth is a serious problem. The United Nations says a rate of 2.1 children per woman is required just to maintain a country's population in the developed world but few developed countries are now achieving this.
In Europe, for instance, Iceland is the most productive country with a fertility rate of 2.03 children per woman, while Ireland with 1.99 and France with 1.90 are ranked second and third, according to Eurostat, the EU's statistics service.
The overall fertility rate for American women in 2005 was about 2.1 births per woman but America is also getting older, too, threatening both private pensions and Social Security, the government pension programme. The US is fortunate that it has a Hispanic ethnic group which is contributing more than any other towards the acceptable birth rate. Hispanics accounted for 49% of the US nationwide population growth of 2.8 million between July 2004 and July 2005, according to US Census Bureau figures. Experts say, however, that the US is unlikely to age as significantly as Europe any time soon.
In Asia, Japan is facing a crisis with its low fertility rate of just 1.25. The Japanese government announced in early June that more than one in five Japanese is now 65 or older, and that ratio could rise to one in four in the next decade. Tokyo has been slow in addressing the issue but has begun by keeping seniors in the job market. Upon retirement, seniors can return to their former companies and receive a government pension in addition to a reduced salary.
The Mahidol University study shows that the time is now for our legislators to also begin to address the problem of a greying population. Only recently Thailand's first aged care home was established but as it is a private institution, it only caters for the wealthy.
Unfortunately for Thailand, our ageing population will be scattered across all ethnic races and income brackets and it will ultimately become a responsibility of the government to provide care for many of the elderly, something which it has not had to do previously. While we must plan for an ageing society, another way to address the problem is to increase the population and Thailand has many possible options that other countries do not have.
In an effort to encourage couples to have children, many European countries as well as Australia have beefed up government benefits for families with children. In Austria, that includes monthly payouts of 436 euros (21,300 baht) for the youngest child until the age of three, and additional monthly cheques up to 153 euros (7,500 baht), depending on the age of offspring. In France, Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin this month introduced financial incentives for parents to have a third child.
Thailand already has on its doorstep a few simple ways to increase its population. Hilltribe people have been waiting for years to be granted Thai citizenship but red tape has continually stood in their way, even though many have been born in this country and speak and write the language. On the border with Burma are refugee camps brimming with potential tax-paying workers. In the camps the women are giving birth to babies on Thai soil with little hope of ever returning to their homeland.
And in Ban Huay Nam Khao in Phetchabun's Khao Kho district, up to 6,500 Hmong, allegedly from Laos even though Vientiane denies this, huddle in makeshift shelters on the side of the road. Expensive schemes, like in Europe, are not necessary, provided the government can find an equitable way to utilise the resources already existing on Thai soil."