Will Ireland trip up Brexit?

[RonanTheBarbarian]

It looks like the Brexit might be entering a fateful few weeks

After over a year of waiting to see if Theresa May's government had anything practical to offer on the Irish border, it looks like Ireland's gay Taoiseach (Prime Minister) finally lost patience.

According to today's Guardian, he is threatening to block progress unless he gets some guarantees:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/17/tusk-tells-uk-no-trade-talks-without-progress-on-money-and-ireland


Looks like Irish leader is dropping his big Celtic fist on the table:


"...Varadkar’s warning was the most blunt, though the EU is likely to take the lead from Ireland when it assesses whether enough genuine progress has been made on the issue of the border with Northern Ireland, one of the three key topics which must be agreed before talks progress to trade.

“We’ve been given assurances that there will be no hard border in Ireland, that there won’t be any physical infrastructure, that we won’t go back to the borders of the past,” Varadkar said before his meeting with May. “We want that written down in practical terms in the conclusions of phase one....”


Shows that the Irish government must have little faith in the possibility of May and her government being able to live up to her promises if they are insisting on written guarantees. And he is threatening to block moving on to phase two if he doesnt get his way. He must feel pretty confident about having the support of Barnier, Tusk and co if he feels able to issue threats like that.


And he dropped one big burn on the Brexiteers in general:

..."Earlier at the summit, Varadkar was scathing about UK politicians who had backed Brexit: “It’s 18 months since the referendum. It’s 10 years since people who wanted a referendum started agitating for one. Sometimes it doesn’t seem like they have thought all this through....”

Ooh, that must have hurt! No better guy than a gayer dish the insults!

[joe552]

Ronan, I'm somewhat of a political geek/nerd (what's the difference?) but I've really lost interest in the Breit saga. Nothing seems to happen, and very slowly.]

Right now I'm more concerned that my cigarette lighter has stopped working, and my kitchen floor really needs a good cleaning,

[FarangRuMak]

It’s a complicated case.
Britain taking a hard Brexit option or being left with no other option can quite simply put immigration and custom posts on their side of the border with the ROI.
The EU in response will direct the Irish Republic to do the same because this border also doubles as one of only 2 EU/British borders. (The other one is the Spanish/Gibralter border.
But Ireland is a special case in that there has been free movement of people and trade between it and Britain before the EU ever existed. Being a member of the EU club will not compensate for the loss of the pre-existing mutually beneficial arrangement.
There’s also the fact that Northern Ireland voted against Brexit.
Then there’s the issue of the still tenous peace agreement.
I don’t know if a modern version of Solomon exists to sort out this case.
The original needed only to cut the baby in two halves.
This is the problem of a thousand cuts.

[latintopxxx]

the irish had better beware...a lot of their economic success depends on access to the UK market...

[FarangRuMak]

Correct and everyone in Ireland knows it but the issue is bigger than any single case of impaction and anyway most of it is out of their control
I believe that Britain walking away from the world’s largest trading block and Mr Trump walking away from a similar trading block in Asia are two major mistakes.
If idiot Trump is impeached the U S A will hopefully rejoin the Asia Pacific group if only to put some brakes on China’s regional bullying.

[scottish-guy]

the irish had better beware...a lot of their economic success depends on access to the UK market...

Irish exports to the UK (at c.12% of total Irish exports) represent less than 1/2 of their exports to USA and 1/3 of those to the rest of the EU.

So, a significant part of the Irish economy but not, I'd suggest, decisive. As a mathematical exercise, if Ireland could increase her exports to the other 26 EU countries by less than 0.5% each, the total value of UK exports are thus replaced.

Brexiteers really need to wake up to the Daily Mail/Daily Express propaganda that the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU, and the other lie that the UK holds all the cards in this negotiation.

The reality is that the EU and the UK need each other and that the UK holds very few of the cards - as is becoming increasingly obvious as the EU continues to politely turn a deaf ear to British "demands"

[latintopxxx]

..wake up scotty...or has all the scat play deasdened more than your sense of smell...the eu...is nazi germany in disguise...

[scottish-guy]

Yes I heard a "historian" expound the view that the EU is a Nazi conspiracy on the TV just last night.

He then went on to say that Hitler had escaped from Germany in 1945 and spent years living in a underground complex under the ice in Antarctica.


Both theories are equally plausible

[joe552]

I think the UK will be the loser in this, A 2nd referendum anyone?

[RonanTheBarbarian]

the irish had better beware...a lot of their economic success depends on access to the UK market...

Well, I dont disagree, but not sure what you mean by that the Irish government “had better beware”…

As regards trade generally, in one respect that is out of the hands of the Irish government, as Ireland (if one excludes a for a moment putative “special deal” for the Northern Ireland border) will share the same deal that the UK agrees with the rest of the EU27, which will be a good as bad as France and Germany want it, basically. Ireland will have to set up with this, although they will be pressing for as free a deal as possible.

In fact, were it not for the concerns about the Northern Irish border, I would say Varadkar’s ministers would be the greatest allies for the UK on the EU side. Therefore, it is not in Ireland’s interest to majorly delay phase 2 of the talks.

However, if the border is not sorted in preliminary phase, it will fall down, and maybe off, the agenda.

Therefore Ireland must maximize its leverage now, The EU 27 are supportive of Ireland demands regarding the North, but once they get caught up in trade deal negotiations, the aim of a frictionless (which can only mean a customs-less) border might be relegated.

[RonanTheBarbarian]

To expand a bit on the above, the big problem for Ireland is not so much the Tory government or the EU negotiators as much as it is the DUP.

The DUP’s red line is no internal UK customs regime (even if it’s a win-win)

If the Tories were not in coalition with the DUP I think they would be quite open to having the customs border in the Irish Sea, but that’s a bit unlikely with May dependent on the DUP in Westminster, unless she is willing to risk her government collapsing as the DUP bolt.

That’s part of the reason the Irish government is being so intransient at the moment in my view, as they know they have to counter the influence of the DUP on the British government.

[joe552]

Ronan, I find little to disagree with in your posts. The DUP will be the big stumbling blocks (ever notice how close that is to bollox?). Nearly a year on from the election, and no government at Stormont. Both the DUP and Sinn Fein are just playing silly buggers.

[scottish-guy]

It's difficult to comment on NI politics when "politics" in that province seems to be simply a euphemism for "sectarianism"

[FarangRuMak]

The EU won’t agree to a customs border in the Irish Sea either.
The south of Ireland is the EU now.
The North is Britain.
Britain has left the E Union.
French farmers have already warned that they will oppose any soft border in Ireland for agri-products coming from ‘Britain’.

[Yraen]

I know it won't ever happen (it's too logical), but .....

Why not just class Northern Ireland as part of the ROI for purposes of Brexit, then place a border on English soil adjacent to the Irish sea.

The UK could then extend special privileges to 'Ireland' to maintain traditional ties. Yet specifically excluding EU trade etc 'transitting' through Ireland.

No-one should get excited about French farmers - over the decades, they have shown clearly that psychiatric help should be provided to them by the EU.

[RonanTheBarbarian]

Something like that is exactly the only way that it could be dealt with.

And there is an historical example we could follow.

Back in the pre-1989 days, there was a special EEC deal where West Germany was allowed to treat import from East Germany as internal, (without tariffs), but those same good would be treated as being imports from outside the EEC if the product went to Belgium or France, say.

What this meant in practice(as far a I understand it), was that if you bought a Dresden-made pair of binoculars in a shop in Aachen, it would not be taxed as an import from outside the EEC, but of you bought it fifty miles down the road in French Strasbourg, it would be taxed as coming from outside the EEC.

There are plenty of such ideas around, but many of them would not pass muster with the DUP, and so the British government are afraid to discuss these precedents, and are left spouting nonsense about an invisible border enabled by some sort of space age hi-tech.

[Nirish guy]

Why not just class Northern Ireland as part of the ROI for purposes of Brexit, then place a border on English soil adjacent to the Irish sea.

Unionists of course in Northern Ireland and elsewhere may take quite a dim view of that idea from a constitutional stand point of course.

[cdnmatt]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the heads of the EU already said their going to be harsh on the Brexit, and basically make an example out of the UK to help dissuade other EU countries from trying the same stunt?

[Nirish guy]

By stunt of course you mean the democratic choice of a Sovereign nation .......

[RonanTheBarbarian]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the heads of the EU already said their going to be harsh on the Brexit, and basically make an example out of the UK to help dissuade other EU countries from trying the same stunt?

Well, they haven't said that officially, but I think they feel they must make sure the UK doesnt seem get a better deal from being out then in.

Ohterwise there could be other countries looking for something similar, why be members of the club when you can get all the benefits for free?

Sometimes I think some of the British press are almost wilfully blind to this fact, they tend to talk as if the obduracy of Barnier and co is all spite and bile rather than a rational actors making rational decisions.

[cdnmatt]

Yeah, the same kind of stunt that how a democratic nation gave rise to Hitler.

By all accounts and measure, Brexit is going to hurt the UK drastically. Can't wait to ask Niegel why 350 million pounds/month isn't going into the NHS.

And again, correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I've heard at least, UK lawmakers are kidding themselves if they think the EU is going to be lenient when it comes to things like trade deals. If the UK wants to continue having access to the single EU market, then it's going to need to comply with EU trade and immigration laws still, making the whole Brexit thing pretty stupid and pointless.

[Smiles]

Yeah, the same kind of stunt that how a democratic nation gave rise to Hitler.

By all accounts and measure, Brexit is going to hurt the UK drastically. Can't wait to ask Niegel why 350 million pounds/month isn't going into the NHS.

And again, correct me if I'm wrong, but from what I've heard at least, UK lawmakers are kidding themselves if they think the EU is going to be lenient when it comes to things like trade deals. If the UK wants to continue having access to the single EU market, then it's going to need to comply with EU trade and immigration laws still, making the whole Brexit thing pretty stupid and pointless.I don't get the topic header in terms of what you write in your post.
The only thing which would add some consistency to your theory would be that you think Hitler was Irish. I don't think he was, though I could be wrong.

[Yraen]

#17 - At Nirish

I did say, "Why not just class Northern Ireland as part of the ROI for purposes of Brexit"

[joe552]

Am I the only one to be totally bored by this? It's been going on for a year, and we have another year and a half to go. There's a story every day in the Irish and UK papers about this. I've had enough and don't read them any more.

[Nirish guy]

Yep Yaren, I know you did and I do realise you that were intending to make that distinction. But I assure you that Unionists here wouldn't either see that nor care and would see as a watering down of the constitutional position of N.I within the UK and also of of the UK itself and that's position is already evident with the DUP drawing their red lines re that very type of Irish sea suggestion ( not that that red lines even mean much these days in todays say something now / change it tomorrow politics anyway it seems)

[scottish-guy]

By stunt of course you mean the democratic choice of a Sovereign nation .......

Now you'd be disappointed if I didn't mention that the particular part of the sovereign nation concerned in this discussion (NI), actually voted to remain but their votes (like those of the Scots) were simply rendered meaningless by the in-built English majority.

Now, before Len bursts another blood vessel, I'm not saying the DUP is wrong to accept that, just gently pointing it out to any SGT foreign johnnies who might not have known

:drink:

[Nirish guy]

Well of course I was referring to the Sovereign Nation of the UK as a whole, you know even that bit that includes the UK even though you hate to think it :-)

[joe552]

SG I think these foreign johnnies infiltrating the board need to be named and shamed.

[scottish-guy]

Or deported?