Medellin Plane Crash: How many other Carriers cut it so fine?

[fountainhall]

A leaked recording of the final moments of the plane which crashed and wiped out the South American soccer team and many others shows that the plane had just run out of fuel. Its final moments illustrate the chaos and panic in the cockpit and controllers as the pilot was told he had to wait because another plane with mechanical failure had priority. That wait was an additional 7 minutes. Without that delay, he could have landed safely. The surviving flight attendant confirms the plane ran out of fuel.

But the question that needs answering quickly is: how on earth did a qualified pilot, a qualified co-pilot and an airline permit an almost fully-loaded aircraft to fly a route of 1,608 nautical miles when the maximum range of that aircraft was just 1,600 miles? Additionally, aircraft routinely have to make route adjustments due to wind or bad weather, making the decision surely even more idiotic. Even if there was a fuel leak, surely that is utter madness? I always understood that airlines by law must carry enough fuel to get a plane safely to an alternate airport.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/30/colombia-plane-crash-pilot-out-of-fuel-chapecoense-brazil

[arsenal]

Airlines have to pay for fuel in advance so an airline on tiny margins will undoubtedly look to carry the minimum required. I'm surprised this doesn't happen more often with the budget carriers.

[fountainhall]

Fuel cost is much less onerous for airlines now than it was three years ago. I recall in 2008 taking an American Airlines flight from Toronto to Chicago and then an onward connection. When there was a delay departing Toronto, the captain announced they were filling the tanks to the brim even for a short hop because fuel was cheaper in Canada than in the USA!

But whatever the cost of fuel and the need to carry only what is necessary, that does not negate the issue of sending out an aircraft with a range of 1,600 nautical miles on a trip that is 8 miles longer! And the minimum surely includes the extra fuel for an alternate airport in case of bad weather or, as in this case, another aircraft with an emergency being given landing priority. Flying into Hong Kong over the years I have twice been on flights diverted to Taipei (extra 500 miles) due to typhoons. Even arriving into BKK on Emirates evening A380 flight from HKG the aircraft was stacked for more than 20 minutes (flying around Pattaya!) because of a monsoon storm over the airport. To have zero fuel reserve has to be massive and criminal negligence.

[a447]

I always understood that airlines by law must carry enough fuel to get a plane safely to an alternate airport.

That's true. There are diversion airports along the flight path and the aircraft must carry enough fuel to enable it to reach the last one at its destination airport.

So on the surface it would indeed appear to be criminal negligence. Time will tell.

[fountainhall]

By alternate airport, I meant one actually further away from the point of departure than the destination point. I don't know that part of South America but it seems from a quick look at the map that there are at least 4 airports within 150 miles or so of Medellin. If fuel was considered a problem, I'm sure it could also have landed for refuelling at Bogota which is about 300 miles short to Medellin. All very strange!

[fountainhall]

Interesting issues aired on the Professional Pilots Rumour website. It seems that the co-owner of the airline (which was only 2 years old) was the pilot at the controls. There is gossip that by not making its planned en-route refuelling landing (the late departure meaning that airport was closed by the time he got there), the captain might have realised he had saved some fuel by not having to land and take-off and then assumed he'd be able to make it all the way.

Additionally there is much criticism of the pilot's actions in not monitoring fuel burn and the way he communicated with the air traffic controller (who comes in for praise). His aircraft was in a far more critical condition than the plane cleared to land with the technical fault but he was asked to stack for 7 minutest. He never communicated his fuel situation until it was far too late.

There is also this comment from one poster -


Final Reserve is used to combat 'Murphy's Law'. It's 30 minutes of fuel. No pilot in their right mind would PLAN to eat into it, when overflying an en-route fuel diversion, simply to reach their destination! A MAYDAY call was required as soon as it became apparent the aircraft would LAND with less than 30 minutes of fuel in it's tanks! (Post #282)
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/587574-jet-goes-down-its-way-medellin-colombia-15.html

Then the Bolivian Labour Ministry has now issued a statement that LaMia was not officially registered as a business with the government! It was therefore operating illegally!

Yikes!

[gerefan2]

Any aircraft accident is caused by a multile number of factors lining up ( known as the Swiss cheese theory) and it's certainly true here from what information is avaiable.
Thirty odd years ago the professional U.K. magazine Flight came on for a load of shite when it said the number of airline accidents was directly related to the Caucasian of the guy flying it ...
Well they may well have been on the money....

[gerefan2]

But could they say that now....I know, I know....

[latintopxxx]

gerefan2...I know trump has just electronically cheated his way into becoming world dictator and that its OK to be non PC again...like it was 30 years ago....and I realise that most of the members of this board are living fossils and hanker back to the good old days when white and male was all that was needed to be successful (which is why I so love seeing afrikaans MB on the end of my dick...or hunting down US white trash) ....but please dont capitalise on others misery...a whole plane load of gorgeous footballers have just died...this whole post so far is rumours...and now u r trying to claim that if the pilot had been white it wouldnt have happened....next u will inform me that there was a peuvian piloting the titanic...
I've been maliciously accused of being racist....yet from my posts its clear that I treat my MB with equal disdain...I really dont care what colour the arse comes in...just has to be firm and fit.
I'm certainly no PC supporter and do believe that the pendulum has swung far too much to the left and that trumps victory/brexit is a reaction to this....but yours is one of the sickest posts to date...

[gerefan2]

Me sick?. Give it a rest!!
!!

[latintopxxx]

just pointing out that a blatantly racist comment is un called for...after all the 3 mile nuclear incident wasnt caused by brown immigrants...nevjer was the hindenberg or titanic or erebus plane crash...or the air france airliner that disappeared en route to France from Brazil...
And whilst we on the subject of race...personally when I'm made king of the universe I'd put out a " shoot to kill on sight" on all white men in grey suits in the finance industry.....the damage that these evil doers have done...bin laden was an amateur compared to that lot...

[fountainhall]

gerefan2...I know trump has just electronically cheated his way into becoming world dictator and that its OK to be non PC again...like it was 30 years ago....and I realise that most of the members of this board are living fossils and hanker back to the good old days when white and male was all that was needed to be successful (which is why I so love seeing afrikaans MB on the end of my dick...or hunting down US white trash) .....
What a load of typical Sexually Deviant Latin nonsense!

[fountainhall]

this whole post so far is rumours....
Nonsense! I suggest you read up on issues on which you decide to make comments before making them. Colombia's Civil Aviation Department had a media Conference 2 days ago. It included the following -


Colombia’s Civil Aviation Authority has officially confirmed that the Bolivian BAe Avro RJ85 operated by Lamia crashed near Medellin with empty fuel tanks..

During a press conference held on 30 November, Aerocivil’s Secretary of Aviation Safety Freddy Bonilla assures that "the aircraft did not operate with the mandatory fuel reserves mandated by international regulations”.

He said that Lamia’s flight plan had established as the alternative airport Bogota, which is slightly less distant from de Santa Cruz (Bolivia) than Medellin, indicating, however, that “the aircraft had not loaded sufficient fuel for an eventual diversion back to the alternative airport, nor for the internationally established 35min fuel reserve”.

Bonilla also confirmed that the actual distance between Santa Cruz and Medellin on the route followed by the Lamia flight was 1,588nm. “We will investigate why Lamia authorised a flight, which [taking into account the mandatory reserves] was beyond the range of the aircraft [1,600 NM]”.

[werner]

I grieve because some many people lost their lives.
But what does this discussion have to do with "Gay Thailand"?

[arsenal]

Werner: Well for a start all of us fly and pretty frequently at that so anything to do with airlines is of concern to us all and secondly this board allows/encourages discussion on most topics if the membership is interested in doing so.

I think the thread Scottish began regarding fare add ons and this thread are far closer to each other than perhaps many would like to think.

[fountainhall]

Interesting article in the latest edition of The Economist -


"It is not clear how or why the last-minute change in flight plan was approved. According to El Deber, a Bolivian newspaper, airport officials in Santa Cruz de la Sierra raised several questions about it. Mr Quiroga [the pilot] reportedly made various verbal guarantees that the plane had enough fuel for the trip.

Other considerations may have been on the pilot’s mind. Mr Quiroga was a co-owner of Lamia airlines. As such he had a unique set of incentives in this situation. Postponing a chartered flight in a time-sensitive industry is not good for business. Once in the air, telling officials that the plane is running out of fuel is less than desirable: the penalty for any firm being caught flouting regulations is huge. It is too early to say whether such factors played a part in his decision-making.

It is also unclear why a top-tier football team was flying to a major sporting event with an airline like Lamia in the first place. The firm was founded in 2009 in Mérida, a small city in western Venezuela. Last year Lamia Bolivia, a separate business entity, was set up. The airline claims to specialise in chartered flights, particularly for football teams. The only functioning plane it has ever owned is the 17-year-old jet that crashed into the muddy Colombian mountainside.

The players of Chapecoense were not the only footballers to fly with Lamia. Few airlines provide chartered flights in Latin America, and none does it cheaper. “A flight that another company charges you $100,000 for, Lamia offered for $60,000,” an industry insider told La Nacion, an Argentine newspaper."
http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2016/12/fuel-folly

As another poster on the pprune.org makes clear, the reason this one-aircraft charter flew a lot of soccer teams was -


Quite simply they were "recommended" by Conmebol, the South American [Soccer] federation.(Post #180)
Given the huge corruption scandals at FIFA and in particular those involving the South American Federation, it would seem that more than a few brown envelopes were probably passed between individuals to ensure soccer teams used LaMia! Very sadly, with disastrous consequences.

[latintopxxx]

speaking of corruption...wasnt some senior irish olympics chied arrested in his underwear in Rio for corruption...or was he a non-caucasian irishman?? Didnt the germans at VW not cheat with their emmissions testing...or were they too non-caucasian??
CORRUPTION is prevalent in all races...

[fountainhall]

Sexually Deviant Latin - your post betrays serious psychological issues. See a doctor! If you think an Olympics chief being charged with corruption - whatever he was wearing - in any possible way equates to corruption resulting in the downing of a plane and the loss of 71 lives, you are ill! As you wrote earlier -


yours is one of the sickest posts to date...
And that was nothing compared to what you just wrote!

[fountainhall]

Where I wrote "the loss of 71 lives" I should have been more accurate - it was the murder of 70 innocent lives plus his own.

[latintopxxx]

fountainhall I realise that after a certain age your memory starts to wander and that due to excessive abuse of alcohol u live in a bit of a daze...but i was merely responding to the fact that gerefan made a blatantly racist posting ...and u jumped in with conflict of interst issues/corruption on the pilots side as he was a co-owner of the airline. I merely pointed out that throughout the ages there are countless examples of lilly white people deeply involved in corruption and mishaps due to their own carelessness/stupidity. so its got absolutely nothing to do with race.

[fountainhall]

i was merely responding to the fact that gerefan made a blatantly racist posting.
Yet another attempt to weasel out of your own words. Nowhere in your post was there any quote from gerefan whose posts were not even on the same page! And your post was immediately after my post discussing corruption in FIFA in its final paragraph. So you can't wriggle out of that non-sequitur so easily, Sexually Deviant Latin.

Besides, your earlier comments failed to take into account any realisation that the pilot of the jet which crashed was guilty of mass murder. He played Russian roulette by filing a flight plan that had as the distance precisely the absolute maximum range of the aircraft - assuming no headwinds, weather diversions etc. He was effectively playing Russian roulette with the lives of his crew and his passengers. But this criminal had loaded the entire chamber of his gun with bullets - bar one. It has been reported he'd flown the route a couple of times before in similar circumstances and the gun did not go off. This time it did - with disastrous consequences.

[fountainhall]

Any aircraft accident is caused by a multile number of factors lining up ( known as the Swiss cheese theory) and it's certainly true here from what information is available.
I don't believe the Swiss Cheese theory was anything like obvious on December 2nd. It is certainly totally debunked now. This was one pilot, co-owner of his airline which had just one functioning aircraft. He filed a flight plan showing length of flight and maximum range of the fuelled aircraft as identical - 4 hrs 22 mins. Despite the airport at his scheduled refuelling point being closed by the time he got there, he could have landed for fuel at Bogota with ease. He didn't. He gambled with the innocent lives of all those on board believing he could just be on the ground before his fuel tanks were totally empty. Factually, he might have been able to do so but for being asked to stack for 7 minutes to permit the other aircraft with an emergency to land. Even when told to stack, he never mentioned lack of fuel reserves. Had he done so, that would have given him absolute priority and he probably could have landed safely. But not carrying enough fuel would have landed him in jail for a considerable number of years and ended his career as a pilot. He panicked, declared electrical failures and only towards the end did he mention fuel. But by then it was all too late.

[gerefan2]

The Swiss Chees is well and still alive in this case. It has come to light that this guy has completed similar flights in the past, where presumably the Swiss Chees was avoided.
On the surface it appears he was held, not in itself unusual but the other aircraft had an emergency of some sort, so somewhat unusual. He was flying with a very, very junior First Officer allegedly on her first flight with this outfit.
These two factors alone add up ...had he held before whilst so short of fuel...had he held for an emergency before whist short.. had he flown before with an extremely junior F.O. who may have been very unassertive flying with the airline owner...all whilst so short of fuel.
Lastly, if you are still listening Latinpox,what do you think of the latest accident today in Pakistan (with reference to my previous quote from Flight International) post #7 ?

[gerefan2]

[QUOTE=gerefan2;211964]The Swiss Chees is well and still alive in this case. It has come to light that this guy has completed similar flights in the past, where presumably the Swiss Chees was avoided.
On the surface it appears he was held, not in itself unusual but the other aircraft had an emergency of some sort, so somewhat unusual. He was flying with a very, very junior First Officer allegedly on her first flight with this outfit.
These two factors alone add up ...had he held before whilst so short of fuel...had he held for an emergency before whist short.. had he flown before with an extremely junior F.O. who may have been very unassertive flying with the airline owner...all whilst so short of fuel..

[fountainhall]

The Swiss Chees is well and still alive in this case.
There really is no Swiss Cheese analogy in the Medellin crash - sadly. The plane's pilot, a man who had gambled with the lives of his passengers on previous flights of roughly similar length and managed to get his plane safely to the ground, was wholly responsible here. This is wikipedia's definition of the Swiss Cheese effect -


It likens human systems to multiple slices of swiss cheese (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_cheese), stacked side by side, in which the risk of a threat becoming a reality is mitigated by the differing layers and types of defenses which are "layered" behind each other. Therefore, in theory, lapses and weaknesses in one defense do not allow a risk to materialize, since other defenses also exist, to prevent a single point of weakness (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Single_point_of_weakness&action=edit&redlink=1)
In other words, a series of things have to go wrong/systems fail for the accident to happen. In this case nothing points to anything other than the captain being solely responsible - in the same way that the co-pilot of the German Wings flight was solely responsible for flying his aircraft into the Alps. Yes, he seems to have broken all the rules in previous flights of similar length and had still been able to land. Fate was then on his side. In this case, he could have refuelled at Bogota - and elected not to. Leaked reports of the black box recordings show he was aware he was running out of fuel as he was getting close to Medellin. When asked to stack, he knew he had virtually no fuel - and elected not to advise Medellin air traffic control. Why did he have his landing gear down when circling at over 20,000 ft (unusually high for any landing) when this would only increase drag and use up more fuel? Even when lack of fuel resulted in his electrical systems failing, he could still have announced the fuel emergency and been given absolute landing priority. Yet he still did not do so, because he knew the deep shit this would land him and the airline in. And when you read the pprune.org posts, it seems there would still have been a chance he could have glided that aircraft to the ground but his panic and lack of experience resulted in the plane falling from the sky.

The pilot also would have known that an emergency landing with zero fuel would have seen him and his crew grounded perhaps for weeks, the aircraft impounded, massive fines and suspension of the airline's operating licence. With his company having no other usable aircraft and, according to more recent media reports, no insurance for international flights, his mind must have been awash with dire foreboding as his plane was about to crash.

I do agree that the late arrival of the commercial flight made it impossible to refuel as scheduled on Cobija. But Bogota was listed as an official refuel stop if required. Even if Cobija had still been open, would he actually have bothered with that take-off and landing, given that he had not bothered with refuelling several times before and still chose to overfly Bogota? And yes, the issue of massive FIFA corruption and the possibility that soccer teams were "encouraged" to use that one aircraft airline - its two other aircraft were impounded due to faulty maintenance - probably did play a role.

But going back to Swiss Cheese, here's what one poster wrote on pprune.org -


The Swiss cheese model does not work when there's criminal negligence involved. If there's one guy not playing by the rules, then the system breaks down very easily. (Post #687)
Let's also consider the closing paragraph of the Economist article I refer to in a previous post -


Sometimes, as with sports clubs and business delegtions, large groups must travel together. Commercial airlines cannot always provide that service. Yet chartered and private flights are substantially more likely to crash (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-15/more-people-die-on-private-or-charter-jets-than-flying-commercial), with pilot error being the cause in nearly 90% of cases. A Bloomberg News review (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-27/corporate-pilots-found-to-skip-safety-check-on-17-7-of-flights) last year found that private crews are overworked and demands from hurried passengers to land on time can encourage reckless decision-making. Lamia Airlines flight 2933 is another reminder of the horrible costs that people risk by cutting corners in the air.

[fountainhall]

The Swiss cheese analogy just took another hit with the revelation that the pilot in command did not have enough hours training to qualify for a commercial pilot's licence. As bad, the co-pilot was aware of this glaring error but did not tell the authorities in order to protect the airline's reputation!

http://www.airlineratings.com/news/968/sensational-new-twist-in-colombian-football-crash