Expect Hotel Prices in Taiwan and Hong Kong to Fall

[fountainhall]

As many will know, Taiwan recently elected a woman, an alleged lesbian and an avowed proponent of independence for the island as President. The first two are immaterial. The third is not. In Hong Kong last week I had coffee with a very old friend who sits of the Board of a major conglomerate with extensive dealings in China. He told me that Beijing is already starting to put the squeeze on Taiwan to kill all thoughts of independence. The first tactic is to reduce the number of tourists permitted to visit the island. The previous President had made a point of cosying up to Beijing and consequently the number of tourists had mushroomed massively with lots of new hotels opening up. Forbes magazine recently reported that group tours from China to Taiwan are already down 30% since May. Last year mainland Chinese spent US$215 billion on their overseas trips - up 53% from 2014. Yet spending in Hong Kong was down by 8.4% and in Taiwan was up by a mere 1.5%.

The 'problem' with Hong Kong started with the student umbrella democracy movement that caused chaos in large parts of the Central District for 2 months in late 2014. This was severely exacerbated just over a week ago in the elections for the territory's Legislative Council. No less than 5 new legislators from new independence parties were voted in, including a 23-year old leader of that Umbrella Movement. My friend has no doubt that Beijing is in no mood to compromise and that Hong Kong will be in for difficult times. Reductions in tour groups are now a virtual certainly.

All of which should mean significant falls in hotel prices.

[fedssocr]

What properties do all of those Chinese tour groups stay in though? My guess is that they stay is more lower budget places than the hotels or accommodations I normally stay in. Granted there may be some overall effect though. But I think it's correct that Taiwan has come to rely on all of those Mainlanders for a quite big chunk of their tourism sector and they won't be so easily replaced with people from elsewhere, even if they greatly increased their marketing to other places.

[fountainhall]

In Hong Kong I usually stay in the 4-star Courtyard by Marriott Hotel. For the last 3 - 4 years it has been impossible to get their lowest rate in the September - mid-December period, no matter how far ahead I booked. Usually the rate has been a good 30% and more higher. I was just there 2 weeks ago and re-booked for early December - and got the lowest rate both times. I have no idea if this is a result of a fall off in mainland tourism - or just a general drop in visitors. Given that the subway station near the hotel opened less than a year ago, I assumed this would make it more attractive. It's certainly a fine hotel that gets consistently high reviews.

[aussie_]

Not exactly on the subject of this thread but I just spent three weeks in mainland China. It was my first visit there and after experiencing mainland Chinese out of control in hotels in other parts of Asia I feared the worse. As it turned out I rarely heard any noise from other guests, no problems at all. Maybe they go crazy when they travel overseas?

I will be in Taiwan for Gay Pride weekend and the following month. When traveling to Kaohsiung and Tainan I stay in the Kindness Hotels. I already booked so I am not sure if their rates will drop but with free snacks and ice cream all day they are a good deal in any case.

[fedssocr]

Free ice cream?!?!?

I stayed at the Shangri-La in Tainan and liked it very much. It's a pretty nice little city.

[aussie_]

Free ice cream?!?!?

I was more interested in the free guys coming to my room. It was interesting though to watch other guests filling up on the free cakes and snacks. Most were not greedy but I saw one old lady take enough to feed a large family and she was alone. The Kindness hotel also had free bycicles for guests which I used every day in Kaohsiung.